OzBargain Advice for Riding Out The (Hypothetical) Trump Global Recession?

Hi Ozbargainers

With the looming threat of indiscriminate tariffs against countries, ally and foe, there seems to be growing concern about the potential for a significant economic downturn directly related to decisions being made in the White House right now.

As we head toward what may be the second economic slump in only the past four years, and potentially the second global financial crisis within 20 years years, I had hoped Ozbargainers with experience could share how best to survive - and perhaps profit - through a hypothetical 2025 economic downturn.

I have already stocked up on beans and powdered milk, and sold the dog to ensure our provisions last at least an extra month. I have added several editions of Marx and Bukarin to my Kindle in case of a potential anarchist society taking over the other side, plus I have downloaded the Fallout TV series as a guide for any apocalyptic deterioration.

Any suggestions for what I might be missing would be greatly appreciated.

Comments

    • +8

      During campaign promises 60% tariffs on China.

      After the win Co-President Musk whispers in his years and now it's 25% tariff on Canada & Mexico while only 10% tariffs on China. After that meme coin saga, I'm 100% convinced that the orange man has lost his brain.

      • +1

        This is his playbook. Anyone who thinks he's doing this for the greater good is delusional. He cares about one person…

    • +18

      Isn't "orange man bad" just a no-effort bad faith straw man response that could be applied to literally any criticism of Trump?

      Person A: I'm concerned about this trade war that Trump's new tariffs might cause..
      Person B: Oh, orange man bad, here's a tissue

      You might as well accuse them of having Trump Derangement Syndrome while you're at it

        • +8

          Well, maybe save the "that was an unhinged thing to say" style responses for when people actually say unhinged things? People who use cookie cutter responses (especially in non suitable situations) really come across as dim, and I'm sure you don't want that.

          I took their hyperbole to be tongue in cheek/joshing about prepper mindsets. Do you actually think they were hand on heart seriously saying they are stockpiling several versions of Marx?

          It's 2025, I think this is a great chance for a new gervais, maybe one that doesn't always revert to either lies or lower case l liberals and/or obsess about the neg function on comments.

          Flip the record, bro

            • +3

              @Gervais fanboy:

              peak gervais

              Well, let it stand as public record that I tried at least.

              • @Crow K:

                just a no-effort bad faith straw man response

                How ironic

                • +6

                  @Gervais fanboy: Sorry man, you typed the phrase "people of your ilk" to me above, it's now impossible for me to take you even remotely seriously.

                  If you actually, genuinely thought the OP was literally stockpiling copies of Marx because they were actually deranged mad at Trump, then you've done more damage to yourself than any of us ever could. :(

                  • -7

                    @Crow K:

                    people of your ilk

                    True, people of your ilk that lie like you do,

                    For example - you accused me of lying just earlier but when asked wouldn’t give any examples. So yes, people of your ilk.

                    genuinely thought the OP was literally stockpiling copies of Marx because they were actually deranged mad at Trump

                    I have already thoroughly responded to that point of yours but you’ll keep spamming this for your performative bad faith arguments. What a showman lol.
                    No wonder you lie as much as you do. You just wanna look like you won some insignificant argument.

      • Yes.

    • +6

      Orange man didn't print a whole much of money?
      If your money isn't worth as much as it was 4 years ago, why would you not expect things to get more expensive?

      You must get your news from X only.

    • 50% and double,eh?
      Show us the data on that bubble of home made science & financial numbers.

  • +11

    Was there are recession last time he was president?

    The results of the tariffs will be felt a lot more in the USA with much higher inflation as the domestic industries there are not as efficient in production as their imports.
    Especially magnified since Trump is exporting his cheap labour sources.

    • +10

      H1Bs won't pick their fruits & veggies and Mexican produce will cop 25% tariff. Their food inflation will skyrocket while he won elections on the back of high egg prices.

      • +14

        Their food inflation will skyrocket

        He will just blame it on Biden and the diversity, equity, and inclusion policies, and his sheep will believe him.

      • -7

        food inflation will skyrocket

        Albo's America

    • +1

      Trump learned from his 2017-2021 presidency. As bonkers as it was back then, he's going all out now. No holds barred, with his trusty sidekick Elon fiddling with the treasury.

      We've got two years of this to go until the mid terms, where it's possible Democrats may regain a majority in at least one house, and another two until Trump will probably step down.

      "Christians, get out and vote, just this time. You won't have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians."

      • +4

        Looking at events of past couple of weeks, 2 years will be a very very long time.

        Main questions is whether he's got some ideas from Xi and Putin on how to remain president for life. With him being so obsessed with power, nothing can be ruled out. He didn't wanted to leave office in Jan 2021 and all that drama, if not for Mike Pence.

        • -1

          America won't last 2 years. The world around him will also close shop, push back and isolate America. Everyone will now be looking for alternative markets.Trumps new world order will be worse for America than any global financial crisis, and it will make the USA a train wreck. Good news for the world.On every front. China will come out on top if they have to give cars away and feed the world while Trump is busily polishing his sceptre. Half the uSA will hate the other while orange toddler is poking flags into Mars. LOL, what fun to watch.All for free,too.

      • some other potential interpretations

        Given he can't run again the comment makes sense, or he is suggesting he will permenantly solve their problems in a way that won't be undone.

    • +1

      depends on what industry you are in, Australia was hit hard last time, especially in Agricultural. Not just Tariffs but Trumps demands that china buy more from them (which conversely meant they had to buy less from us).

  • +7

    Me today: it’s ok, when in doubt, zoom out

    Me 5 seconds later: oh no… OH NOOOOOOO

  • +1

    OP is bored. You just turned everyone an Economist now. Lol

  • +13

    Just keep calm and carry on! Nothing would happen. After all the bluster and drama most likely by Monday night US/Canada/Mexico would probably announce that they have come to an agreement to strengthen the border, take more migrants back, etc., etc. so everyone get to save face and go back to doing whatever they have been doing before and Trump will do a very loud victory lap and brag about his deal making skills and move onto the next self-inflicted crisis.

    • Well it didn't take long. Like I said it's all theatre!!

  • Everything will be fine. Canada will station a few more troops at the border, Trump will be placated, and Mexico will carry on as usual.

    Until the next crisis, when Trump starts bombing cartels over the border.

  • +1

    Best advice is to do nothing because it's irrelevant and people are making mountains out of molehills.

  • +1

    What recession? <says Australia>

  • Buy Dogeeeeeeee

  • -4

    What Hypothetical Trump Global Recession!? Its going to boom!!!

    • +2

      Especially the planes and oil refineries (thanks to lax safety and cost cutting)!

      • +2

        The irony that nothing has been cut and they are blaming cost cutting on all the plane crashes :)

      • -7

        Right
        Let’s not ever talk about the FAA not hiring people based on their race and funding a programme to force disabled people into their workforce.

        https://nypost.com/2025/01/31/us-news/faa-embroiled-in-lawsu…
        https://www.faa.gov/jobs/diversity_inclusion/aviation_develo…

        • Let’s not ever talk about the FAA not hiring people based on their race and funding a programme to force disabled people into their workforce.

          We can't talk about that, as then it wouldn't be Trumps fault!!!

        • +5

          I'd love for you to elaborate more about the connection it appears you’re making between disabled people and the Blackhawk crash. Its currently under investigation but it seems like you’ve already reached a conclusion.

          The Murdoch piece you linked noted that the FAA has faced staffing shortages since the 2020 pandemic layoffs. As for the "funding programme", the biographical assessment, the article must have forgotten to include that it discontinued back in 2018. seven years ago.

          Second link is dead.

          • -4

            @youfnc:

            I'd love for you to elaborate more about the connection

            See, you being you again
            I responded to someone that made a connection, not me. They said “thanks to lax safety and cost cutting”.
            Funny how you would never ask them to back up the connection they made but you’d rather @ me.
            Typical.

            but it seems like you’ve already reached a conclusion.

            Your political twin above me did that, not me.
            Grow a spine ffs, you attack me and not the person who you should be going after.
            You are not here to debate, you are an activist.

            The Murdoch piece

            Slimy as usual. What do you want me to do if your favourite billionaire owned news organisation doesn’t cover any stories covering prejudice against anyone white. I found the actual case notes too but didn’t share them coz they were too long and hard to summarise.

            noted that the FAA has faced staffing shortages since the 2020 pandemic layoffs.

            FAA : Refuses to hire people based on merit because they just aren’t diverse enough.

            Also FAA : We have a shortage of personnel.

            Second link is dead.

            Thanks
            Here you go https://web.archive.org/web/20241127211628/https://www.faa.g…

            Btw this was only taken down in December 2024, I wonder why lol

    • Well go boom anyway. This one should be quite spectacular to see.

      • This one should be quite spectacular to see.

        Oh it is going boom alright….. Just depends on which definition of 'boom' you are using :)

        • +1

          As in explode in people’s faces. The market will definitely go down by the end of Trump’s term it just depends on by how much. We had a substantial drop in the market today. Trump is putting a whole lot on instability out there. The market doesn’t like that.

          • +2

            @try2bhelpful:

            The market will definitely go down by the end of Trump’s term it just depends on by how much

            People said that last time as well, but it didn't happen.

            We had a substantial drop in the market today

            We have also had a substantial pop in the markets since Trump won as well.

            Trump is putting a whole lot on instability out there. The market doesn’t like that.

            Agreed, the markets don't like lots of things. Today they don't like it, tomorrow they'll like it, the day after meh, then hate it and then love it.

            As for what will happen over the next 4 years? It could go 50/50 at this point in time! But it won't be dull.

            • +1

              @JimmyF: The market crashed out during Trump’s term particularly when Covid hit. Biden was the one who did the heavy lifting us out of the mess Trump left.

              As I said with the Trump pop, that was predicted before the markets crashes.

              Frankly I prefer dull. I prefer good governance over entertainment. Germany gave us a huge amount of entertainment between 1914 to 1918 and an encore performance between 1939 and 1945. I’m sure you look back on that as “good times”.

              • +2

                @try2bhelpful:

                The market crashed out during Trump’s term particularly when Covid hit

                That was nothing to do with Trump, the GLOBAL market crashed hard when COVID hit. Every stock market in the world went down big time at the start of 2020.

                But if you look at the any of the markets, they had all been up at near record highs at the end of 2019 before COVID hit and yes up from when Trump came into power.

                Check for yourself, All Ordinaries, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, NYSE Composite and the list goes on.

                Biden was the one who did the heavy lifting us out of the mess Trump left.

                All global stock markets have recovered post COVID. So what did Biden do again?

                Are you given Biden credit for the global market recovery?

                • +1

                  @JimmyF: Not even the most hardcore Democrats ever run the Biden propaganda like this user just did.

                • -1

                  @JimmyF: You seem to have strayed somewhat from my initial point which is Trump will crash the market before the end of his four year term. His policies are incredibly destabilising and markets don’t like that. America doesn’t have the sort of industries that protectionist policies would assist and they aren’t coming back because the workforce is too expensive. He is burning goodwill with other countries around the world so why would you bother trading with them? He is making China more attractive to other countries to trade with because they are more predictable.

                  There are many articles that do give credit to Biden for stabilising the American economy after Trump left, it isn’t just me. Right now Trump is berating Murdoch for what the Wall Street Journal is saying about Trump’s policies. Go look them up.

                  However, I think all of this is a smokescreen for the dismantling of democracy in America. What little checks and balances that were in place are being dismantled. I would love it if American’s believed in democracy as much as I do. You only have to look at the figures on voting that one man, one vote means diddly. Otherwise we would’ve had Hillary in the Whitehouse.

                  • @try2bhelpful:

                    Right now Trump is berating Murdoch

                    What Trump really said - I don’t agree with him (RP) on some things.

                    Your brain reads that as - Berating
                    Mate, you are an activist too.

                    Also, you are the same person that’s run arguments about Murdoch acting a puppet for Trump and Murdoch disingenuously propping Trump up.

                    Also You : Rupert Murdoch is criticising Trump’s policies.

                    lol atleast decide which one is it.

                    Go look them up.

                    The sweet irony.

                  • +2

                    @try2bhelpful:

                    You seem to have strayed somewhat from my initial point which is Trump will crash the market before the end of his four year term

                    Not at all, I agreed and said the market will go 'boom', it all just depends on how you define boom.

                    You keep doubling down to tell me how bad Trump will do and did last time, but the facts are, the market didn't crash last time like you claimed or like everyone said it would when he started.

                    There are many articles that do give credit to Biden for stabilising the American economy after Trump left, it isn’t just me

                    Call me shocked that the MSM blew smoke up Biden butt hole. As I said, the entire global market crashed, the entire global market recovered. It had nothing to do with Biden at the time, all global markets recovered together regardless of what Biden was doing. Overlay the market graphs and they all took the same pathway, off a cliff and then recovered, pretty much hand in hand.

                    Right now Trump is berating Murdoch for what the Wall Street Journal is saying about Trump’s policies. Go look them up.

                    Are you really defending Murdoch news/media?

                    From what I can see coming out of the USA, those screaming the loudest about Trump/Elon are the ones with the most to lose or the ones with the dead bodies in the cupboard they don't want found.

                    If appears the fraud and money embezzlement is off the charts!

                    However, I think all of this is a smokescreen for the dismantling of democracy in America

                    It's the global plan, the same thing is happening in Australia. We are just a few steps behind.

                    • @JimmyF: The rightwing is well on the way to doing it.

                      • @try2bhelpful:

                        The rightwing is well on the way to doing it.

                        It's funny you think there is a left and right party still. Both major parties in Australia now have the same core goals, which are not in the interest of Australians from a 20 years ago. Doesn't matter who 'wins' the outcome is the same.

                        Funny how we keep importing 'skilled' workers from a developing/3rd world countries. Shouldn't it be the other way around? They are the ones developing not us. Don't they need the skills?

                        The west has fallen, it just doesn't know it yet.

                        • +1

                          @JimmyF: The West falling is a scary thought, not one I look forward to, but I suspect you are correct.

                          There is a quote from Napoleon on attacking China.
                          It would be the worst thing you have done for a number of years, to go to war with an immense empire like China, and possessing so many resources. You would doubtless, at first succeed, take what vessels they have, and destroy their trade; but you would teach them their own strength. They would be compelled to adopt measures to defend themselves against you.

                          He was so correct on so many levels here. The Opium Wars and put down of the Boxer Rebellion caused the downfall of the emperor dynasties and the rise of the alternatives culminating in the CCP. Trying to isolate them from a trade and technology perspective leads them to look for alternative answers not beholden to Western technology. Trump is withdrawing foreign aid and doubtless China will step in. Trump is threatening other sovereign nations who will start talking to China for defence.

                          Maybe Trump is just an agent of the CCP. It would explain a lot.

                          Frankly, as a woman, I’m happy to dump some of the shit people wanted 20 years ago. We should’ve moved on from that. However, the LNP has been in power for at least 20 of the last 30 years so you know where to lay the blame with growing inequality. Me, I’ve done well out of playing the system but I managed to get the right accountant. The amount of shit you could do legally was astonishing. All at the expense of the average tax payer. I didn’t even come from wealth imagine how well they have done. The current LNP mob has learnt that culture wars are a great smokescreen for ripping people off blind. In the words attributed to Dame Nellie Melba. “ "Give them muck, it is all they understand".

                          • @try2bhelpful:

                            The West falling is a scary thought, not one I look forward to, but I suspect you are correct.

                            They're all being ripped apart at the core. The UK looks to be a shocking mess as well :/

                            Frankly, as a woman, I’m happy to dump some of the shit people wanted 20 years ago

                            Well yes, not everything from 20 years ago was great, but the population base 20 years ago isn't the same base as today.

                            The current LNP mob has learnt that culture wars are a great smokescreen for ripping people off blind. In the words attributed to Dame Nellie Melba. “ "Give them muck, it is all they understand".

                            Yep, make them look over there while we rip you off over here. Gov have been doing it for decades, just found a new smokescreen to use as the others have worn off.

                            In that, I'm noticing the largest people in an uproar over DOGE are the ones who might have a lot of hide!

                            Maybe Trump is just an agent of the CCP. It would explain a lot.

                            Agent Orange working for the CCP! Honestly wouldn't put it past him if there was lots of money at had.

                      • @try2bhelpful: Look at you trying to have the last say like you didn’t just lie about a bunch of things,

                        Where did Trump ‘berate’ Rupert Murdoch?

                        You have done this a bunch of times too but need to be called out now.

                        • @Gervais fanboy: Actually you said you weren’t going to say anything further then continued to comment. As I keep saying I am happy to let others make up their own minds having looked at all our comments but you continue to argue whatever point you think you are trying to make.

                          • -2

                            @try2bhelpful:

                            you said you weren’t going to say anything

                            That was a different thread, genious. 🤦🏻‍♂️

                            you continue to argue whatever

                            Mate, you keep lying ffs.
                            lol where’s the fact checkers when we need them.

  • +1

    Load all your money to Sportsbet now OP and stop your dramas.

  • +1

    Market down pretty substantially today. The smart money was on a mini boom then a pretty bad crash. I suspect that is what will happen.

  • +4

    I think it’s time for everyone to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside.

  • +8

    We probably should maintain collective awareness of Trumps BS, if Dutton is planning on copying his model into the next election.

    • -2

      Dutton is smarter than anybody give him credit for. I can guarantee that you won't see an official Dutton meme coin.

      • +7

        That makes him smarter than Trump? That's a low bar.

        • -7

          It's called sarcasm, you should look it up.

          I would still rate him higher than Albo. When a state Premier shows more leadership than country's PM, you know he's not fit for job.

    • +1

      The thought of our Ginadutton to match the Elontrump is a nightmare we couldnt look away from. At least we wouldnt need to bother with a Foreign Minister as the 'mercan one would do the heavy lifting like last time.

  • +8

    I've read some pretty out there theories, I really do hope nothing much happens. It will affect us in Australia if shit hits the fan.

    One (crazy?) theory is they are purposely tanking the economy, a reset of sorts, where lots of businesses go broke and the oligarchs swoop them up for next to nothing.

      • Albo's Australia

      • There is no Australia. It's a convenient lump or raped land pillaged ,exploited and abused by rich mainly western white parasitic entities, enabled by gutless obsequious sycophants in Canberra. ( Both sides of the House.)
        If we are talking about loyalty and flags it's been us grovelling to the divided states of muurca since 1946/

    • +10

      US has become a Kleptocracy.

      Trump family, Oligarchs, and their faithful will loot the nation in one of the biggest wealth transfer in modern times.

  • Move to Greenland, nothing ever happens there

  • -8

    Atleast hopefully we won't be forced on some hypothetical untested injection just to save our job in the name of "democracy"

    • -2

      Pretty sure the the majority of Ozabrgain is ‘pro choice’.
      So I don’t even know what you are trying to say there.

      • +2

        Cooker's talking about the COVID vaccine.

        • Ikr, most people here are reasonable enough to be pro choice when it comes to abortions as well as vaccines…

          • +1

            @Gervais fanboy: Agreed, After I never heard a single baby complain about being aborted by the very woman who created them

  • +3

    Search S&P500, look at the graph before and after the global financial crisis in 2008. Then look at what it is now. Do you need to liquid assets over the next 2 years? Yes, then maybe do something. No? Then what does it matter.

  • You'll find that if you stop eating,.you won't have to pay for food anymore

    Combine that with a nice cardboard box, and you're basically set

  • +4

    Having invested thru the GFC and covid crash - keep powder dry for when there is blood on the streets then buy buy buy

    • Talcum?

      • $$$

        • seriously what you recommend to buy?

  • How is this indiscriminate? Trump said it many times what he is going to and what his hopes are. Pretty well thought out if you ask me.

    • -1

      You’ll hurt them with this reality.

    • +8

      Just because he said he was going to do it doesn’t mean it is thought out at all. He is like a drunk mumbling at a party.

    • +5

      So if I asked why the Ukraine war was NOT over a day after he started the job your excuse would be…..?
      And I don't remember anything Trump articulated about 100% racist policies. Nor does S Africa,Mexico and every other place he and the other insecure bald man (Musk) have the cross hairs on.

      • Everything is just drama from Trump. It is basically entertainment for the masses.

        Remember how the H1B issue blew up in the face of Elon and Vivek. They whipped up Greenland issue to cover that. Vivek quietly got shown the door.

        So Panama is a win now that US warships don't have to pay to go through it. The canal doesn't operate and maintain itself.

    • +4

      Well, he promised 60% tariff on China. As far as I know, 10% is not equal to 60%.

      So he treats strategic neighbour and an ally who fought along with US in 2 World Wars, Korean and Afghanistan wars worse than an adversary and a strategic rival. That's how you lose credibility as a dependable ally.

      Elon Musk has done great job for master Xi and saved his Chinese factories and business.

      • +1

        So he treats strategic neighbour and an ally who fought along with US

        Trump just picks on people who might not fight back. Rest is just talk.

  • Wait, aren't his policies predicted to have decent fallout for a lot of our industries and economy?

    What sources or predictions are you reading that are fuelling your concerns?

  • +2

    Recessions are good for you if you are in a strong income position and can afford to buy assets on the cheap

    Just shore up your clientele/job security, which you should be doing anyway.

    • BRB calling my clientele

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