OzBargain Advice for Riding Out The (Hypothetical) Trump Global Recession?

RolandWaites on 03/02/2025 - 13:14

Hi Ozbargainers

With the looming threat of indiscriminate tariffs against countries, ally and foe, there seems to be growing concern about the potential for a significant economic downturn directly related to decisions being made in the White House right now.

As we head toward what may be the second economic slump in only the past four years, and potentially the second global financial crisis within 20 years years, I had hoped Ozbargainers with experience could share how best to survive - and perhaps profit - through a hypothetical 2025 economic downturn.

I have already stocked up on beans and powdered milk, and sold the dog to ensure our provisions last at least an extra month. I have added several editions of Marx and Bukarin to my Kindle in case of a potential anarchist society taking over the other side, plus I have downloaded the Fallout TV series as a guide for any apocalyptic deterioration.

Any suggestions for what I might be missing would be greatly appreciated.

Financial

Comments

                    • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 22:02
                      -2

                      @dealhunter52: "Leaders of 2 allied countries have to meet at some point."
                      Even more stupid is to say Dutton was our leader then or now.

                      "If you had your facts right, you would realise most of our minerals are owned and exported to China. But you're too biased to realise this."
                      And if you did you'd know that as per ownership of the most valuable mines and commodities per tonne is America. Just because the iron ore magnates sell low value per tonne coal and iron ore on a massive ecological footprint does not mean the $$value of lithium,bauxite and high value minerals are second class.Coal is everywhere.

                      Here>
                      https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/undermining-our-dem…

                      "Can you provide some proof of scare mongering? I believe in facts not rumours or hearsay."

                      LOL The shrill, screaming, dog-whistling, over the top, 'everything is antisemitism" is the most egregious exaggeration of reality since the bible rolled off the printing press. Get a TV,you'll see what I mean. Graffiti has become terrorism according to the decomposing Trump mini me spud.

                      • dealhunter52 on 04/02/2025 - 22:29
                        -1

                        @Protractor:

                        Even more stupid is to say Dutton was our leader then or now.

                        Foreign minister is part of govt leadership. I know this concept might be foreign to you.

                        Here>

                        Your link is from 2011 and totally outdated. Even though it's outdated, it totally refutes lies that US owns our minerals, when as per the link UK owns more than US.

                        From your link:
                        "The paper states that foreign investment accounts for 86% share of ownership of major mining projects, including 26% from the US and 27% from the UK."

                        LOL The shrill, screaming, dog-whistling, over the top, 'everything is antisemitism" is the most egregious exaggeration of reality since the bible rolled off the printing press. Get a TV,you'll see what I mean. Graffiti has become terrorism according to the decomposing Trump mini me spud.

                        Fire bombing childcare centres, burning synagogues and torching peoples car because of their religion is terrorism. Small acts lead to big terror events. Wasn't there a caravan full of explosives other day? It's collective shame for our country when a community has to hide their faith & identity because of events happening half way across the globe. This is not 1940s.

                        You have fully exposed yourself as a terror apologist.

                        • Protractor on 05/02/2025 - 13:02

                          @dealhunter52: As have you if you think Mental yahoos slaughter of innocents = rational justifcation in order to eliminate enemy cells, with the real reason being a USA sponsored land grab.

                          • dealhunter52 on 05/02/2025 - 13:24
                            +1

                            @Protractor: Can you elaborate how a childcare centre or a synagogue in Sydney is responsible for events happening in middle east? Are these Australians that are being targeted with car and property damage around Sydney, fighting Hamas terrorists in Gaza?

                            You keep removing any doubts by exposing yourself as an anti-Semite. If you keep digging the hole deeper, you won't be able to get out. I wonder what sort of low life individual will justify attacks on fellow Australians because of something happened in another country.

                            • Protractor on 05/02/2025 - 13:47

                              @dealhunter52: "Can you elaborate how a childcare centre or a synagogue in Sydney is responsible for events happening in middle east?" after you elaborate how tens of thousands of innocent women and kids are acceptable collateral, why aid workers were murdered,why the west is forgoing all tenets of peace and rules of war, and our country is changing laws after being threatened by Israel, rather than backing those protections already existing for all people, whatever their lawful ideology?

                              It is not antisemitic to criticise the state sanctioned Israeli PMs (officially cited) war crimes. Not even every Israeli, or every Jewish person (in Israel of here) agrees with the actions undertaken.People who speak out against the slaughter from the Jewish community are being bullied,pilloried and outcast on a regular basis.The facts are that this false narrative allows only cohort to claim victim status.

                              Doing you think Trump ans Netanyus non negotiable deal today lowers or increases the terror threat going fwd?

                              • dealhunter52 on 05/02/2025 - 14:11

                                @Protractor: FFS, why should Australians citizens be targeted for foreign conflicts? If you hate Australia and Australians so much, why not go live in whichever middle-east hell hole you want to live in? I think Australia will do just fine without you.

                • registradus on 05/02/2025 - 11:24

                  @dealhunter52: Dutton absolutely wants to be the next Trump

          • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 16:38
            +4

            @try2bhelpful: I'm not see fascism and/or Nazism in the current US government but believe whatever floats your boat.

            • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 17:38
              -2

              @R4: Oh, you missed the fly swat incident.Twice?

              • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 21:41
                +3

                @Protractor: Err, that's your evidence that the current US government is fascist and nazi? Wow, okay you've convinced me. So based solely on that proof, I'm changing my mind - the US government is fascist and nazi.

                Thanks for the enlightenment.

                • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 21:50

                  @R4: No it's just the advertising campaign Musk put on for the Bretheren.The Trump appointee Musk & his super rich white influential S.Africans (in Trumps inner circle) are actively re-imposing Apartheid. They are circling like sharks already back in SAfrica.
                  And when you support neo Nazis, you automatically support fascism. If you think Trump is not a fascist, I suggest you sit back and wait 48 hours for further proof.I would call his behaviour more than fascist.Using the military inside his own country to do his dirty work, excising every soldier he doesn't like the looks of,gutting foreign aid,making enemies of every border to his country. Trying to send trading partners broke by economic blackmail. Threatening to steal sovereign countries. What are we, 2 or 3 weeks in? Saying FU to Nato,WHO,and to every other trading partner he can. Yeah, he's a dandy. Smooth operator.

                  • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 21:53

                    @Protractor: Feel better now after that?

                    Yep, deffo fascist.

                    • Protractor on 05/02/2025 - 13:05

                      @R4: Thanks for acknowledging .Sorry you had to work so hard to move that penny.

                      Next you'll be telling us Israels actions are not aggression but a peaceful transition process to Nirvana for their much loved neighbours,LOL.

                      • R4 on 05/02/2025 - 15:04
                        -1

                        @Protractor: Israel's actions are aggressive no question but they are self-defence.

                        • Protractor on 05/02/2025 - 15:15

                          @R4: LOL

                          • R4 on 05/02/2025 - 15:17

                            @Protractor: lol

                            • Protractor on 05/02/2025 - 15:22

                              @R4: self defence- guffaw.

                              I believe that was the justification for the 2 nuclear bombs during WW2. A heinous method to which the world said never again.
                              Hasn't Netanyahu said , as a method, it was also on his table at all times since October.

          • dealhunter52 on 04/02/2025 - 19:37

            @try2bhelpful: At least in US, people have the option to kick out the party/leader after 4 years.

            People don't have that power in China since 1949. Before CCP use to change leadership every 10 years but now Xi has removed term limits which effectively means he's president for life, just like Putin, Lukashenko, Kim Yong Un and other dictators.

            • try2bhelpful on 04/02/2025 - 19:51
              -2

              @dealhunter52: Yet funnily enough in China they aren’t rising up in large numbers to overthrow their Government. Ya think a billion disaffected people could organise a decent coup.

              In America you get to be President even if you don’t win the popular vote. So much for one man, one vote. Let’s see what the next US election brings us shall we? The electoral systems are corrupted to favour the GOP. That is just a fact.

              How is America helping their citizens? Terrible gun control, awful health systems, terrible social security, etc. They are a third world country with a first world military. It is great place to be rich but a terrible place to be poor. The best bit is you will be blamed for being poor because you failed the American dream.

              I love a populace that has been fed the delusion of democracy and choice. No wonder they have a fentanyl problem. I would self medicate too.

              • dealhunter52 on 04/02/2025 - 19:57
                +2

                @try2bhelpful:

                Yet funnily enough in China they aren’t rising up in large numbers to overthrow their Government. You think a billion disaffected people could organise a decent coup.

                You should ask that question to people protesting outside state banks demanding to withdraw their own money, but instead getting beaten and thrown in jail or when government critics are given electric shocks in state psychiatric institutions. CCP ruled China is such a utopia that 24,214 Chinese citizens were apprehended in 2024 for illegally entering USA from Mexico border. Facts speak louder than opinions.

                I hope you will read the full article before replying.

                • try2bhelpful on 04/02/2025 - 22:49

                  @dealhunter52: Not saying I agree with CCP. It certainly isn’t a Utopia and I never said it was. Not sure why you feel the need to misrepresent my comments. Just saying that a billion people would rise up if they were really against their own system of government. It isn’t for me but then I don’t agree with the US either. Fortunately I don’t have to live in either country. America has always had a tenuous grasp on true democracy, human rights and decency. You could certainly find examples of the Government committing human rights abuses on their own people. However, Trump is tearing the place apart bypassing democratic and legal processes. I just think we need to acknowledge neither side is admirable.

                  • dealhunter52 on 04/02/2025 - 22:56
                    +1

                    @try2bhelpful: Because of this 👇.

                    Yet funnily enough in China they aren’t rising up in large numbers to overthrow their Government. Ya think a billion disaffected people could organise a decent coup.

                    1989 Tiananmen Square…does it ring a bell? CCP made sure no one ever dares to protest or organise again. That's why they have extreme state surveillance and censorship, they fear internal uprising more than any external enemy.

                    • try2bhelpful on 04/02/2025 - 23:13

                      @dealhunter52: What percentage of the population was there? I’m not saying I agree with the CCP government I’m just saying if the majority of the Chinese populace disagreed with their current leadership it would’ve gone by now. I suspect they are just pragmatic about their government. It isn’t like America is a great advertisement for democracy.

                      • dealhunter52 on 04/02/2025 - 23:57
                        +1

                        @try2bhelpful: How can they organise and protest, when media is fully state controlled and other means of information like internet and social media is extremely censored with any post critical of government swiftly removed and scrubbed off the internet? "Whoever controls the media, controls the mind" - Jim Morrison (1969).

                        Many who do try to protest and criticise are punished and made an example off to deter others. Same story with North Korea and Russia. If these countries were such utopias, their citizens wouldn't be fleeing to western democracies.

                        Question for you - Have you ever seen mass migration from western democracies to China, Russia or North Korea? If not, I think we should rest the case here and move along. Lets keep facts and opinions separate.

                        • try2bhelpful on 05/02/2025 - 00:10

                          @dealhunter52: Yup and what you are stating is an opinion. What I am stating is a fact. The fact is a billion people haven’t risen up and thrown out their Government. I’m not qualified to comment on where Tiananmen fits in the consciousness of the Chinese people and neither are you. I leave my conjecture out of that.

                          The other fact I’m stating is that I don’t trust either the Chinese nor American systems of government. My opinion is the Chinese system is oppressive and there are facts that seem to show it is. That democracy is broken in the USA is a fact. That the rule of law is not being followed is a fact. That human rights are being violated in both countries is a fact. We could go through facts all days with the deficits in both systems. I’m not the one trying to defend either side.

                          Let’s do separate opinions and facts. It would be helpful if you people did move on.

              • trapper on 04/02/2025 - 20:06

                @try2bhelpful:

                in China they aren’t rising up in large numbers to overthrow their Government.

                Because they would be massacred.

                • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 21:40

                  @trapper: Where as in America they leave that 'massacre' for school days, on a daily, or more often cycle.Just for showing up.

                  • try2bhelpful on 04/02/2025 - 23:14
                    -1

                    @Protractor: Yeah, including six year olds at school. Although there are people here who would say it was “fake news”.

                • try2bhelpful on 04/02/2025 - 22:52

                  @trapper: What a billion of them? I don’t think so.

                  • trapper on 05/02/2025 - 12:51

                    @try2bhelpful: However many it takes, they would slaughter as many as necessary without a second thought.

                    • Protractor on 05/02/2025 - 13:06

                      @trapper: Don't let Israel find out someone stole their model.

            • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 21:55
              +2

              @dealhunter52: CCP also murdered and killed over 50 million of their own people - but hey, BYD make fantastic, cheap EVs so it's good.

              • dealhunter52 on 04/02/2025 - 22:06
                +2

                @R4: Chinese citizens tried to rise in 1989 but we all know what happened in Tiananmen Square. Some people here are very short memories and nostalgic about CCP rule. Even though everyone here knows about state censorship, forced disappearances, Uighur internment camps and general suppression of criticism and dissent, they would still sing praises of CCP.

                We are so lucky to live in a democracy where we get to vote, choose our leaders, criticise government and hold it to account, start a debate and express feely. These clowns have no idea what they have and how to cherish and appreciate it. As the saying goes "be careful what you wish for".

                • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 22:13
                  +3

                  @dealhunter52: I read a book years ago about Mao's 'Great Leap Forward' in the 1950s/60s. China actually went significantly backwards and millions perished. Many other episodes of murder and death too. Horrible stuff but MG good.

                  • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 23:35
                    +1

                    @R4: If you can read that, why filter the truth in every available contemporary sense, when it doesn't suit your agenda/paradigm? Who's the real victim of brainwashing here?

                    • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 23:38
                      +2

                      @Protractor: The only one talking about brainwashing is you - I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

                      • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 23:41
                        -1

                        @R4: Probs because you've run out of room for reality, truth or any positive attributes in the bread box.That's on you . You're the willing enabler of Trumps effluent flow. I've bookmarked all you guys for the wake up time in the next few weeks , when you need to be prised out from under the rocks for the homework revision.

                        • R4 on 05/02/2025 - 10:57

                          @Protractor: I'm waiting with bated breath.

                      • Gervais fanboy on 05/02/2025 - 02:20

                        @R4: I have noticed with these radicals, they don’t like seeing people criticise their beloved Mao or just if anyone brings up the CCP in general.

                        • Protractor on 05/02/2025 - 09:43

                          @Gervais fanboy: I have noticed you have a bizarre imagination and are hypocritical when it comes to using the old. "look over there" defense.

                          • Gervais fanboy on 05/02/2025 - 09:57

                            @Protractor: So you condemn Mao and the current communist regime??

                            • Protractor on 05/02/2025 - 13:10

                              @Gervais fanboy: I condemn all fascism.Even the stuff on display this morning.
                              Including it's arrival in the west . Feel better?

                              Now sit back and watch how Dutton tears up the 2 state solution, a view held almost universally, for 50- 60 years, by his side of politics as well. If obedience under duress is not fascism what is it? Negotiation by force?

        • stjep on 06/02/2025 - 07:19

          Love how obvious you make it that you do not understand the words you wrote. Good stuff.

      • prodrome on 04/02/2025 - 12:05
        +4

        No idea what are you one about. Buy a Japanese or European car like a normal person.

        • michaelTito on 04/02/2025 - 14:02
          +2

          Yeah we all prefer Japanese, German and Italian.

        • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 16:42

          I would too but many on here are continually banging on about how great CCP-made cars are and that's it's great that Tesla and other free World manufacturers are going to suffer.

          • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 21:41

            @R4: Musk can afford it, and he deserves it.Win,win.

            • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 21:56
              +1

              @Protractor: All hail Winnie the Pooh and the great CCP!!!

              • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 22:03

                @R4: Ooh no, so mature a come back.

                • R4 on 04/02/2025 - 22:06

                  @Protractor: Just following your lead.

                  • Protractor on 04/02/2025 - 22:09
                    +1

                    @R4: Big difference. One player has the balls to not claim they are something else.Communists never deny being communists do they?
                    Whereas Trump brags about democracy and then sh!ts down its neck.
                    I cannot believe ppl defend this alien parasite.

          • prodrome on 04/02/2025 - 22:26

            @R4: CCP made cars have been in Australia for years. They don't stay on the road for long though. You'd have to very lucky to find any ten year old Chery J11's on the road.

  • mmd on 03/02/2025 - 13:35
    +6

    stocked up on beans and powdered milk

    What about toilet paper?

    • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 13:44
      +9

      We got bidets in both our toilets, so one less thing to worry about.

      • michaelTito on 04/02/2025 - 14:02
        +1

        I got natural bidets at home. Actually I got 10 of them on me right now

    • whyisave on 04/02/2025 - 22:31

      What about toilet paper?

      Well, you better hope Amazon do deliveries, during WW3 !

  • Clear on 03/02/2025 - 13:37
    +9

    Line the walls inside with foil and wrap yourself up in a space blanket Chuck McGill style.

  • sharkyoz on 03/02/2025 - 13:43
    +1

    download all of South Park, at least you will have something to laugh at while in hibernation

    • Herbs on 03/02/2025 - 18:19

      Debateable.

  • skid on 03/02/2025 - 13:45
    +5

    DCA

  • netjock on 03/02/2025 - 13:51
    +2

    Stay calm and carry on.

    The more people get fearful (and give in) of Trump the more he is going to try it.

    Countries need to put in place alternative trade arrangements pretty quickly. No point trying to debate with a baby. Essentially he is a baby and all the billionaires have given in. The regular voters have no idea they have been sold policies that won't work.

    Putting tariffs on imports so they can cut income tax. So 100% tariff on say a washing machine (add everything else you buy up) and would that offset your income tax?

    • [Deactivated] on 03/02/2025 - 16:37
      +7

      Not quite, the US constitution declared that any direct taxes must be apportioned. SCOTUS decided that income from property (i.e. interest, rent) was a direct tax and had to be proportionate to the population of the state. The income tax on income and profits was fine, they'd already done that before during the civil war (and Article 1 covers that the fed can levy taxes) and it was considered an indirect tax.

      The whole weird thing about taxes in their constitution is just because the Brits kept finding novel ways to levy taxes on them. The 16th amendment was solely to fix up the mess of rules they put in the constitution that weren't workable.

    • Shoocat on 03/02/2025 - 21:55
      +12

      I feel like whenever someone says 'Fun fact', it is invariably neither fun nor factual.

      • tenpercent on 05/02/2025 - 14:30
        +1

        I think that whenever people lead with "I feel like" it's almost invariably just about the vibe and not the facts.

    • jv on 03/02/2025 - 14:16
      +15

      Last 4 years of fuel prices going up by 50%

      Oil prices now are similar to what they were in 2018

      • TheFreaK on 03/02/2025 - 14:21
        +1

        Yet fuel isn't

        • jv on 03/02/2025 - 14:27

          It's cheaper…

        • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 14:33
          +2

          Crude is cheaper now than in 2018. Refiners are charging more while transportation and distribution costs have gone up.

      • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 15:05

        Op wrote about his concerns with inflation.

        Pretty sure I was paying under $1.2/litre back then, I am paying around $1.8/litre now.
        I am sure Op has had the same/similar experience himself.

        • JimB on 03/02/2025 - 17:15
          +5

          Average ULP Pump Prices
          National- 2018 144.3
          National- 2024 188.8

          https://fleetautonews.com.au/historical-pump-prices-in-austr…

          • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 17:28
            +1

            @JimB: 144 in 2018, back down to 124 in 2020 and since then there has been a record jump of $.40 to take us into the the 180+ category,

            I was only making a point about the last four years and how financially uncomfortable they got.

            • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 18:17
              +2

              @Gervais fanboy: Fuel prices depend on international crude price. Crude oil was around $20-$30 in 2020 due to Covid and lock downs. Crude price briefly went negative too.

              It would be pretty dumb to think that fuel was cheaper because of a political leader or government..

              • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 18:36
                +1

                @dealhunter52: Inflation and added government regulations(climate change stuff) are the primary reasons why petrol is still so expensive even though the crude oil prices have come down.

                It would be pretty dumb to think that fuel was cheaper because of a political leader or government..

                Agree, tell that to the op.
                I didn’t blame any government or political leader myself.

          • jv on 03/02/2025 - 17:49
            +1

            @JimB:

            Average ULP Pump Prices
            National- 2018 144.3
            National- 2024 188.8

            I don't pay 'Average' price, I pay on the low side of the price cycle…

            • JimB on 03/02/2025 - 21:43
              +2

              @jv: No doubt. Well if you paid the low side of the cycle in 2018, I’m sure your also paid the low side of the cycle in 2024.

              Swings and roundabouts

              • jv on 03/02/2025 - 23:09
                -3

                @JimB: Yes, it is cheaper now.

            • megaclix on 04/02/2025 - 18:56

              @jv:

              I pay on the low side of the price cycle

              OK, lets try the Average Petrol Terminal Gate Price (Sydney):-

              2018: 130.4
              2024: 171.7

              Source: AIP

              • jv on 04/02/2025 - 22:09

                @megaclix:

                Petrol Terminal Gate Price (Sydney)

                I don't fill up there.

                • megaclix on 05/02/2025 - 00:22

                  @jv: Other major cities were very close to that. You do understand what Terminal Gate Price is right?

                • tenpercent on 05/02/2025 - 14:33

                  @jv: Do you get it cheaper though?

        • SnakeCasablanca on 03/02/2025 - 19:03

          Nah man. Trump must have gone back in time and changed your memories!

      • Ocker on 03/02/2025 - 16:59

        Interesting to look back - In March 2012 WTI was USD106.00, AUD 101.00 (at the prevailing AUD/USD FX rate) a barrel. Petrol for the month average $1.46 a litre.

        • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 18:20

          So you got no pay rise and there was ZERO inflation since 2012?

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