OzBargain Advice for Riding Out The (Hypothetical) Trump Global Recession?

RolandWaites on 03/02/2025 - 13:14

Hi Ozbargainers

With the looming threat of indiscriminate tariffs against countries, ally and foe, there seems to be growing concern about the potential for a significant economic downturn directly related to decisions being made in the White House right now.

As we head toward what may be the second economic slump in only the past four years, and potentially the second global financial crisis within 20 years years, I had hoped Ozbargainers with experience could share how best to survive - and perhaps profit - through a hypothetical 2025 economic downturn.

I have already stocked up on beans and powdered milk, and sold the dog to ensure our provisions last at least an extra month. I have added several editions of Marx and Bukarin to my Kindle in case of a potential anarchist society taking over the other side, plus I have downloaded the Fallout TV series as a guide for any apocalyptic deterioration.

Any suggestions for what I might be missing would be greatly appreciated.

Financial

Comments

  • Gdsamp on 03/02/2025 - 13:16
    +11

    Nothing ever happens

    • Look Up on 03/02/2025 - 14:59
      +4

      Plenty happens, though you have to be more observant than the typical OzB'er

      IYKYK

      OP's being a prankster like usual but the reality is, WA is by far the state most economically exposed in 2025

      • SYLTB on 03/02/2025 - 16:14

        Nope, Krok has just ordered tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. The former two smaller ones immediately ordered equal counter tariffs, and the latter big one would order soon at the bigger scale as happened 4-5 years ago.

        • Herbs on 03/02/2025 - 18:18

          Yep, WA is gonna benefit bigly.

        • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 22:34
          +2

          I was looking at most recent figures of US trade deficit (source: Bloomberg).

          China = USD -260 B
          Mexico = USD -205 B
          EU = USD -202 B
          Canada = USD -129 B
          Vietnam = USD -101 B

          It's pretty clear why Orange man is targeting Canada. It doesn't have much to do with trade deficit but it's a scheme to put pressure and takeover Canada. He made it pretty clear he wants Greenland and Canada to become parts of US.

          Less than 1% of Fentanyl and less than 1% illegal migrants come through Canada border. So that argument is that is total BS and shouldn't even be mentioned.

          • vid_ghost on 03/02/2025 - 22:37
            +1

            @dealhunter52: Trump is total BS. BS is also what got him into power

            • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 22:45
              +1

              @vid_ghost: We already knew that in 2017 but at the time he had guardrails and some in Republicans leadership were still responsible. He's way more dangerous, unhinged and belligerent now with support of ultra rich tech Oligarchs and brainwashed MAGAts.

  • ramb9 on 03/02/2025 - 13:19
    +12

    You need to build a bunker

    • 87percent on 03/02/2025 - 15:23
      +2

      And invest in tin foil

  • c64 on 03/02/2025 - 13:20
    +5

    yeah, woke up happy only to find out trump is hard at work (profanity) up the global economy

  • kolorijo on 03/02/2025 - 13:23
    +2

    Here we go again… popcorn

  • fantombloo on 03/02/2025 - 13:26
    +1

    Bukarin

    Bakunin > Bukharin

  • prodrome on 03/02/2025 - 13:33
    +4

    Don't buy a Tesla. That brand is deader than dead.

    • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 13:42
      +2

      You mean Swastikars of the Nazi billionaire?

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1zH2bV_tpk

    • netjock on 03/02/2025 - 13:53

      Definitely!

      As one commentator put it. If you target Tesla the pain will be felt very quickly. The owner of Tesla don't seem to criticise CCP much because obviously they have his factories and profits at risk.

    • R4 on 03/02/2025 - 18:11
      +3

      Tesla bad but CCP-made cars good.

      Okay, got it.

  • mmd on 03/02/2025 - 13:35
    +3

    stocked up on beans and powdered milk

    What about toilet paper?

    • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 13:44
      +5

      We got bidets in both our toilets, so one less thing to worry about.

  • Clear on 03/02/2025 - 13:37
    +8

    Line the walls inside with foil and wrap yourself up in a space blanket Chuck McGill style.

  • sharkyoz on 03/02/2025 - 13:43

    download all of South Park, at least you will have something to laugh at while in hibernation

    • Herbs on 03/02/2025 - 18:19
      +1

      Debateable.

  • skid on 03/02/2025 - 13:45
    +3

    DCA

  • netjock on 03/02/2025 - 13:51
    -1

    Stay calm and carry on.

    The more people get fearful (and give in) of Trump the more he is going to try it.

    Countries need to put in place alternative trade arrangements pretty quickly. No point trying to debate with a baby. Essentially he is a baby and all the billionaires have given in. The regular voters have no idea they have been sold policies that won't work.

    Putting tariffs on imports so they can cut income tax. So 100% tariff on say a washing machine (add everything else you buy up) and would that offset your income tax?

  • 7ekn00 on 03/02/2025 - 13:53
    -7

    Haha, and if he didn't, where will the AUD be when the USD is worthless from the competing countries dropping it :P

    At least he is trying to stop the globalization push to make the entire world just like China ;)

    For the rest, enjoy owning nothing, being a minimum wage slave and eating the bugs!

    Fun fact: Prior to 1913, the US Constitution actually contained protection against income tax for individual citizens
    (so the US operated with Tariffs + no personal income tax for longer than it has operated without Tariffs + income tax!!!)

    • freefall101 on 03/02/2025 - 16:37
      +2

      Not quite, the US constitution declared that any direct taxes must be apportioned. SCOTUS decided that income from property (i.e. interest, rent) was a direct tax and had to be proportionate to the population of the state. The income tax on income and profits was fine, they'd already done that before during the civil war (and Article 1 covers that the fed can levy taxes) and it was considered an indirect tax.

      The whole weird thing about taxes in their constitution is just because the Brits kept finding novel ways to levy taxes on them. The 16th amendment was solely to fix up the mess of rules they put in the constitution that weren't workable.

    • Shoocat on 03/02/2025 - 21:55
      +2

      I feel like whenever someone says 'Fun fact', it is invariably neither fun nor factual.

    • jv on 03/02/2025 - 14:16
      +7

      Last 4 years of fuel prices going up by 50%

      Oil prices now are similar to what they were in 2018

      • TheFreaK on 03/02/2025 - 14:21

        Yet fuel isn't

        • jv on 03/02/2025 - 14:27

          It's cheaper…

        • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 14:33

          Crude is cheaper now than in 2018. Refiners are charging more while transportation and distribution costs have gone up.

          • boomramada on 03/02/2025 - 15:14
            +1

            @dealhunter52: Fuel prices are way cheaper (compared to bread/milk). When Tesla came to the market, people calculated their savings based on future price increases to the $2.20/L mark.
            For the last two years, I haven't paid anything over $1.90/L on 98 or anything over $1.70/L on 91.

            If it's expensive in your area, that's because you don't have any competition between servos.

      • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 15:05

        Op wrote about his concerns with inflation.

        Pretty sure I was paying under $1.2/litre back then, I am paying around $1.8/litre now.
        I am sure Op has had the same/similar experience himself.

        • JimB on 03/02/2025 - 17:15
          +2

          Average ULP Pump Prices
          National- 2018 144.3
          National- 2024 188.8

          https://fleetautonews.com.au/historical-pump-prices-in-austr…

          • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 17:28
            +1

            @JimB: 144 in 2018, back down to 124 in 2020 and since then there has been a record jump of $.40 to take us into the the 180+ category,

            I was only making a point about the last four years and how financially uncomfortable they got.

            • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 18:17
              +1

              @Gervais fanboy: Fuel prices depend on international crude price. Crude oil was around $20-$30 in 2020 due to Covid and lock downs. Crude price briefly went negative too.

              It would be pretty dumb to think that fuel was cheaper because of a political leader or government..

              • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 18:36
                +1

                @dealhunter52: Inflation and added government regulations(climate change stuff) are the primary reasons why petrol is still so expensive even though the crude oil prices have come down.

                It would be pretty dumb to think that fuel was cheaper because of a political leader or government..

                Agree, tell that to the op.
                I didn’t blame any government or political leader myself.

          • jv on 03/02/2025 - 17:49

            @JimB:

            Average ULP Pump Prices
            National- 2018 144.3
            National- 2024 188.8

            I don't pay 'Average' price, I pay on the low side of the price cycle…

            • JimB on 03/02/2025 - 21:43

              @jv: No doubt. Well if you paid the low side of the cycle in 2018, I’m sure your also paid the low side of the cycle in 2024.

              Swings and roundabouts

              • jv on 03/02/2025 - 23:09

                @JimB: Yes, it is cheaper now.

        • SnakeCasablanca on 03/02/2025 - 19:03

          Nah man. Trump must have gone back in time and changed your memories!

      • Ocker on 03/02/2025 - 16:59

        Interesting to look back - In March 2012 WTI was USD106.00, AUD 101.00 (at the prevailing AUD/USD FX rate) a barrel. Petrol for the month average $1.46 a litre.

        • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 18:20

          So you got no pay rise and there was ZERO inflation since 2012?

    • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 14:19
      +4

      During campaign promises 60% tariffs on China.

      After the win Co-President Musk whispers in his years and now it's 25% tariff on Canada & Mexico while only 10% tariffs on China. After that meme coin saga, I'm 100% convinced that the orange man has lost his brain.

    • Crow K on 03/02/2025 - 14:41
      +11

      Isn't "orange man bad" just a no-effort bad faith straw man response that could be applied to literally any criticism of Trump?

      Person A: I'm concerned about this trade war that Trump's new tariffs might cause..
      Person B: Oh, orange man bad, here's a tissue

      You might as well accuse them of having Trump Derangement Syndrome while you're at it

        • Crow K on 03/02/2025 - 15:24
          +5

          Well, maybe save the "that was an unhinged thing to say" style responses for when people actually say unhinged things? People who use cookie cutter responses (especially in non suitable situations) really come across as dim, and I'm sure you don't want that.

          I took their hyperbole to be tongue in cheek/joshing about prepper mindsets. Do you actually think they were hand on heart seriously saying they are stockpiling several versions of Marx?

          It's 2025, I think this is a great chance for a new gervais, maybe one that doesn't always revert to either lies or lower case l liberals and/or obsess about the neg function on comments.

          Flip the record, bro

          • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 15:39
            -6

            @Crow K:

            really come across as dim,

            Subjective

            But you are a repeat liar - Fact

            Do you actually think they were hand on heart seriously saying they are stockpiling several versions of Marx?

            That particular paragraph in isolation?
            It would have been funny but then I saw op’s old posts and they had never before whinged about the crazy inflation of the past 4 years.
            But sure, writes a whole post of ‘what could happen’ as Trump is now in charge.

            If you pretending to act partisan rn, why not suggest a viewpoint along the lines of ‘obviously Trump’s using tariffs as a bargaining tactic’ as he did with Colombia, people of your ilk in the US cried about their coffee beans maybe getting expensive, nothing happened and no one ever provides a retraction.
            And I predict this pissing game with Canada will end soon too, idk maybe Trump will concede or maybe Canada does, doesn’t matter. They are not gonna go on indefinitely as y’all would wish were the case.
            As China is concerned, the entire west needs to do something about their extreme dependence on China and its goods.

            , I think this is a great chance for a new gervais, maybe one that doesn't always revert to either lies

            Tell me one thing I lied to you about?
            Coz I can definitely point out your lies and your bad faith doubling down on top of that,

            • Crow K on 03/02/2025 - 15:56

              @Gervais fanboy:

              peak gervais

              Well, let it stand as public record that I tried at least.

              • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 15:57
                +2

                @Crow K:

                just a no-effort bad faith straw man response

                How ironic

                • Crow K on 03/02/2025 - 16:07
                  +2

                  @Gervais fanboy: Sorry man, you typed the phrase "people of your ilk" to me above, it's now impossible for me to take you even remotely seriously.

                  If you actually, genuinely thought the OP was literally stockpiling copies of Marx because they were actually deranged mad at Trump, then you've done more damage to yourself than any of us ever could. :(

                  • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 16:47
                    -3

                    @Crow K:

                    people of your ilk

                    True, people of your ilk that lie like you do,

                    For example - you accused me of lying just earlier but when asked wouldn’t give any examples. So yes, people of your ilk.

                    genuinely thought the OP was literally stockpiling copies of Marx because they were actually deranged mad at Trump

                    I have already thoroughly responded to that point of yours but you’ll keep spamming this for your performative bad faith arguments. What a showman lol.
                    No wonder you lie as much as you do. You just wanna look like you won some insignificant argument.

    • TightAl on 03/02/2025 - 17:13
      +1

      Orange man didn't print a whole much of money?
      If your money isn't worth as much as it was 4 years ago, why would you not expect things to get more expensive?

      You must get your news from X only.

  • jv on 03/02/2025 - 14:12
    +7

    Was there are recession last time he was president?

    The results of the tariffs will be felt a lot more in the USA with much higher inflation as the domestic industries there are not as efficient in production as their imports.
    Especially magnified since Trump is exporting his cheap labour sources.

    • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 14:29
      +4

      H1Bs won't pick their fruits & veggies and Mexican produce will cop 25% tariff. Their food inflation will skyrocket while he won elections on the back of high egg prices.

      • jv on 03/02/2025 - 14:34
        +8

        Their food inflation will skyrocket

        He will just blame it on Biden and the diversity, equity, and inclusion policies, and his sheep will believe him.

      • Gdsamp on 03/02/2025 - 15:45
        -1

        food inflation will skyrocket

        Albo's America

    • Cluster on 03/02/2025 - 15:37

      Trump learned from his 2017-2021 presidency. As bonkers as it was back then, he's going all out now. No holds barred, with his trusty sidekick Elon fiddling with the treasury.

      We've got two years of this to go until the mid terms, where it's possible Democrats may regain a majority in at least one house, and another two until Trump will probably step down.

      "Christians, get out and vote, just this time. You won't have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians."

      • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 15:58
        -1

        Looking at events of past couple of weeks, 2 years will be a very very long time.

        Main questions is whether he's got some ideas from Xi and Putin on how to remain president for life. With him being so obsessed with power, nothing can be ruled out. He didn't wanted to leave office in Jan 2021 and all that drama, if not for Mike Pence.

  • Jimothy Wongingtons on 03/02/2025 - 14:13
    +6

    Me today: it’s ok, when in doubt, zoom out

    Me 5 seconds later: oh no… OH NOOOOOOO

  • Fredfloresjr on 03/02/2025 - 14:54
    +1

    OP is bored. You just turned everyone an Economist now. Lol

  • websterp on 03/02/2025 - 15:09
    +8

    Just keep calm and carry on! Nothing would happen. After all the bluster and drama most likely by Monday night US/Canada/Mexico would probably announce that they have come to an agreement to strengthen the border, take more migrants back, etc., etc. so everyone get to save face and go back to doing whatever they have been doing before and Trump will do a very loud victory lap and brag about his deal making skills and move onto the next self-inflicted crisis.

  • Cluster on 03/02/2025 - 15:34

    Everything will be fine. Canada will station a few more troops at the border, Trump will be placated, and Mexico will carry on as usual.

    Until the next crisis, when Trump starts bombing cartels over the border.

  • DingoBilly on 03/02/2025 - 15:45

    Best advice is to do nothing because it's irrelevant and people are making mountains out of molehills.

  • Duckie2hh on 03/02/2025 - 15:48
    +1

    What recession? <says Australia>

  • Duckie2hh on 03/02/2025 - 15:49

    Buy Dogeeeeeeee

  • JimmyF on 03/02/2025 - 15:50
    -4

    What Hypothetical Trump Global Recession!? Its going to boom!!!

    • baaatender on 03/02/2025 - 16:28

      Especially the planes and oil refineries (thanks to lax safety and cost cutting)!

      • JimmyF on 03/02/2025 - 16:32
        +1

        The irony that nothing has been cut and they are blaming cost cutting on all the plane crashes :)

      • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 16:43
        -4

        Right
        Let’s not ever talk about the FAA not hiring people based on their race and funding a programme to force disabled people into their workforce.

        https://nypost.com/2025/01/31/us-news/faa-embroiled-in-lawsu…
        https://www.faa.gov/jobs/diversity_inclusion/aviation_develo…

        • JimmyF on 03/02/2025 - 16:57
          +1

          Let’s not ever talk about the FAA not hiring people based on their race and funding a programme to force disabled people into their workforce.

          We can't talk about that, as then it wouldn't be Trumps fault!!!

        • youfnc on 03/02/2025 - 17:46
          -1

          I'd love for you to elaborate more about the connection it appears you’re making between disabled people and the Blackhawk crash. Its currently under investigation but it seems like you’ve already reached a conclusion.

          The Murdoch piece you linked noted that the FAA has faced staffing shortages since the 2020 pandemic layoffs. As for the "funding programme", the biographical assessment, the article must have forgotten to include that it discontinued back in 2018. seven years ago.

          Second link is dead.

          • Gervais fanboy on 03/02/2025 - 18:20
            -3

            @youfnc:

            I'd love for you to elaborate more about the connection

            See, you being you again
            I responded to someone that made a connection, not me. They said “thanks to lax safety and cost cutting”.
            Funny how you would never ask them to back up the connection they made but you’d rather @ me.
            Typical.

            but it seems like you’ve already reached a conclusion.

            Your political twin above me did that, not me.
            Grow a spine ffs, you attack me and not the person who you should be going after.
            You are not here to debate, you are an activist.

            The Murdoch piece

            Slimy as usual. What do you want me to do if your favourite billionaire owned news organisation doesn’t cover any stories covering prejudice against anyone white. I found the actual case notes too but didn’t share them coz they were too long and hard to summarise.

            noted that the FAA has faced staffing shortages since the 2020 pandemic layoffs.

            FAA : Refuses to hire people based on merit because they just aren’t diverse enough.

            Also FAA : We have a shortage of personnel.

            Second link is dead.

            Thanks
            Here you go https://web.archive.org/web/20241127211628/https://www.faa.g…

            Btw this was only taken down in December 2024, I wonder why lol

    • try2bhelpful on 03/02/2025 - 16:34

      Well go boom anyway. This one should be quite spectacular to see.

      • JimmyF on 03/02/2025 - 16:37

        This one should be quite spectacular to see.

        Oh it is going boom alright….. Just depends on which definition of 'boom' you are using :)

        • try2bhelpful on 03/02/2025 - 16:48

          As in explode in people’s faces. The market will definitely go down by the end of Trump’s term it just depends on by how much. We had a substantial drop in the market today. Trump is putting a whole lot on instability out there. The market doesn’t like that.

          • JimmyF on 03/02/2025 - 17:02

            @try2bhelpful:

            The market will definitely go down by the end of Trump’s term it just depends on by how much

            People said that last time as well, but it didn't happen.

            We had a substantial drop in the market today

            We have also had a substantial pop in the markets since Trump won as well.

            Trump is putting a whole lot on instability out there. The market doesn’t like that.

            Agreed, the markets don't like lots of things. Today they don't like it, tomorrow they'll like it, the day after meh, then hate it and then love it.

            As for what will happen over the next 4 years? It could go 50/50 at this point in time! But it won't be dull.

  • Fredfloresjr on 03/02/2025 - 15:52

    Load all your money to Sportsbet now OP and stop your dramas.

  • try2bhelpful on 03/02/2025 - 16:22

    Market down pretty substantially today. The smart money was on a mini boom then a pretty bad crash. I suspect that is what will happen.

  • SuperGreen on 03/02/2025 - 16:23
    +2

    I think it’s time for everyone to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside.

  • AustriaBargain on 03/02/2025 - 16:50
    +2

    We probably should maintain collective awareness of Trumps BS, if Dutton is planning on copying his model into the next election.

    • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 17:57

      Dutton is smarter than anybody give him credit for. I can guarantee that you won't see an official Dutton meme coin.

      • miwahni on 03/02/2025 - 22:26

        That makes him smarter than Trump? That's a low bar.

        • dealhunter52 on 03/02/2025 - 22:39
          -1

          It's called sarcasm, you should look it up.

          I would still rate him higher than Albo. When a state Premier shows more leadership than country's PM, you know he's not fit for job.

  • TEER3X on 03/02/2025 - 16:54
    +3

    I've read some pretty out there theories, I really do hope nothing much happens. It will affect us in Australia if shit hits the fan.

    One (crazy?) theory is they are purposely tanking the economy, a reset of sorts, where lots of businesses go broke and the oligarchs swoop them up for next to nothing.

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