2025 Australian Business Death Predictions (in Administration/Bankruptcy/etc.)

neil on 13/12/2024 - 16:07
Last edited 26/03/2025 - 13:40

Let's see what your predictions are for 2025 in the comments.

So far in 2024, on OzBargain:

and others of note:

Tupperware to close in Australia amid bankruptcy

Looking at the above list, I'd say Godfreys and Bonza was predictable.

Comment below with your guesses.

Actual Death List:

General Discussion Administration Bankruptcy

Comments

      • freefall101 on 13/12/2024 - 17:05
        +3

        There is one single reason that Labor has been in power for the past decade and it's the Victorian Liberal Party.

        I actually like Pesutto, but he's lipstick on a pig. Most of his party are whackjobs who make his life incredibly difficult. As such, he has to spend his time playing whackamole with the worst elements of it to pretend that they're a centrist party. It's only people who read the Herald Sun and listen to 3AW who think the Liberal party is in any kind of electable state.

        I'd love a party that was fiscally conservative and wasn't pitching themselves as the only party that can hunt down the teenage transgender Somali warlords that supposedly roam Melbourne. But the Liberal party room either puts in a normal person then undermines them, or they put in a leader who undermines themselves.

        Anyway, sadly for jv, the next election isn't until 2026.

  • Dollar General on 13/12/2024 - 16:21
    +4

    Sexyland

    • mapax on 13/12/2024 - 16:58

      Can’t tell if you were negged by a degenerate who doesn’t want it to close or a prude who doesn’t like you mentioning the name…

  • spackbace on 13/12/2024 - 16:27
    +7

    Cheesecake shop
    Nissan

    • Baysew on 13/12/2024 - 17:41
      +5

      Citroën, after 100 years in Australia got their au revoir in 2024.

      Not that anybody really noticed.

      • jackary on 13/12/2024 - 18:51
        +3

        I’d do bad things for an aqua blue diesel C4 cactus. I noticed. :(

      • CheapandUsed on 13/12/2024 - 18:55
        +6

        I'd still grab a C6 as a second car, for long luxurious road trips to destinations that have extensive roadside assistance availability.

    • sharkyoz on 13/12/2024 - 19:14
      +4

      praying for cheesecake shop to shut, no cheese in their cakes but i cut plenty afterwards

    • LVlahov on 13/12/2024 - 19:44
      +6

      Jaguar.

    • MessyG on 16/12/2024 - 21:02
      +2

      Such a shame re Nissan. The Leaf is a great car, way ahead of the curve and still very functional secondhand.

  • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 16:32
    +10

    33% of coffee shops

    • Benoffie on 13/12/2024 - 17:07
      +3

      Actually, Gloria Jeans in SA after the Cibo rebrand.

      They tried before, so did Starbucks. All failed.

      That's an incoming disaster.

      • holdenmg on 14/12/2024 - 07:04
        +7

        Starbucks three shops in SA all closed.
        It wasn't real coffee, it was somewhere you went to buy overpriced warm water with a brown crayon whisk'd through, with some dairy whip and stale cinnamon atop.
        Usually, they spelled your name wrong, and if you got lucky you got another persons order that was better than your own.

        • jay2datee on 16/12/2024 - 10:10

          I only ever went to Starbucks in Rundle Mall once, and that was the day they were closing down. Rubbish coffee. Support your local!

        • Oneguyinmelb on 18/12/2024 - 15:41

          Starbucks seem to relay on a critical mass of International Students or young people they don't know good coffee and need/want syrups.

      • Brightland on 14/12/2024 - 07:59
        +2

        I just about spat my coffee out when I read that Gloria Jeans were taking over Cibo, total oxymoron. If there isn't a decent independent around, then a Cibo was the next best bet. I won't be bothering with Gloria Jeans… I can see the franchisee's jumping ship at their first opportunity or dying a quick death.

  • MS Paint on 13/12/2024 - 16:33
    +7

    Was going to say cheapcheaplah but somehow I missed the memo and discovered it's already shut down.

  • Bruceflix on 13/12/2024 - 16:36

    Pop Phones

    Not sure how they have made it this far

  • mapax on 13/12/2024 - 16:54
    +1

    Carl's Jr. - 20 Restaurants Closed

    I think some of those have reopened? I saw that Clayton has reopened, and I think Lyndhurst might have as well.

    • RichardL on 13/12/2024 - 17:09

      My local Carl's Jr was converted to Hungry Jacks.

      • BLAIL on 16/12/2024 - 10:15

        i used to go to the one in Wetherill park every week

    • Hirolol on 14/12/2024 - 08:08

      Maybe aus side was bought out.
      Wonder the same thing every time I drive past the Clayton one
      I always try to see if anyone is inside

    • JakeyJooJoo on 14/12/2024 - 19:31

      The Carl's Jrs stores in aus were divided into two camps, the ones owned by corporate, and the ones that were franchises. Only the corporate ones closed up shop

      • mapax on 17/12/2024 - 07:24

        Clayton closed and then reopened on 30/10 as a franchise.

  • Edsanwong on 13/12/2024 - 16:55
    +7

    Myer
    David Jones

    • dyziplen on 14/12/2024 - 18:06
      +1

      David Jones

      Nah, not next year. They are still polishing up the tud before floating it. Anchorage will probably try to fleece the market mid/late in 2025, saying that they have over achieved their Vision 2025 plan. Then after they have cashed out maybe early 2026, then DJ will head to a quick death.

  • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:00
    -3

    Reserve Bank

    • mapax on 13/12/2024 - 17:01
      +1

      I think this is meant to be predictions of who will, not who should…

      • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:04
        -8

        I know . But the MSM, and the magnates and the fanboys of the trillionaire have spoken.They smell blood. And when they do, it's usually a matter of time, before they get their way.It's what bullies do. Not sure if they don't want a woman in control, or no control, period.
        But I do know think now that Trump is in, we should let chaos reign.These days the MSM has the steering wheel of our destiny.

        • Benoffie on 13/12/2024 - 17:08

          Not confusing the RBA with The Fed?

          • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:10
            -5

            @Benoffie: The US Fed?
            Nope. But Trump will 'tweak' that too.If his plans don't go the way he demands he'll just print more money.Maybe even introduce a new note with him and Elon on it. The $69 bill

            EDIT And

            https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-13/trump-crypto-venture-…
            No moral compass

            • HelpMeiCantSee on 14/12/2024 - 12:49
              +1

              @Protractor: I find it genuinely amusing (and concerning from a mental health perspective) how orange man bad manages to make it in to totally unrelated conversations. I mean, he is the soon to be leader of a country which is not ours. So what.

              I’m much more worried about how fast our own country is going down the gurgler!

              • Protractor on 14/12/2024 - 14:02
                -6

                @HelpMeiCantSee: The local gurgler speed is directly linked to the country who owns our arses and controls our future.
                You don't care about the loss of democracy,rule of law,morality,humanity,corruption all on a scale worthy of the entire non western world, and yet aligned with 'orange man' and his circle? I am more worried about attitudes like yours. They are enabling.
                You can keep your mental health card in your pencil case where it belongs until you get the license to practise.Cheap shot BTW

    • RedHab on 18/12/2024 - 08:12

      The VIC government is drowning in debt, too. They'll be bailed out again by the Feds and other states in 2025.

      The RBA owns a money printer, so can't go bankrupt - they just inflate their worries away.

  • pegaxs on 13/12/2024 - 17:02
    +5
    • Jaguar/Almost all the Stellantis group/Most of those French shitters (although DS will actually kick off for some head scratching reason)/Polestar
    • Savic Motorcycles in Melbourne will finally build about 5~10 bikes and almost immediately go into administration.
    • Osmosis clothing chain. Massive stores, but I never see anyone in there. Same goes with City Beach. MASSIVE stores, always empty.
    • Just Jeans… Like seriously, how does this chain of stores just keep on existing?
    • One of the big retail giants, I'm just not sure, JB, HN, Bing Lee, Good Guys… I got a gut feeling one of them is about to bite the farm. It will come as a shock and it will all be over either an ACCC fine or a bunch of professionals making good on a 90% off deal that was posted instead of a 9% deal.
    • Tesla is going to have a bad year in Aus. next year. They wont go under, but will become a brand like Fiat and only sell 128 cars. Their market share is about to be gobbled up by BYD, Zeekr, Nio, MG and whatever other Chinese EV maker that will be landing in the next 12 months.
    • brendanm on 13/12/2024 - 17:36
      -6

      I dunno, I think jags new ad, and stunning new car, will save the brand.

      • Cluster on 13/12/2024 - 17:41
        +2

        Well, the brand has been slowly circling the drain for years. Might as well finish the job.

        • smartazz104 on 14/12/2024 - 10:05
          +1

          People that have never bought a new Jag and were never planning to are upset that this new direction will prevent them from buying a new Jag…

          • johnno07 on 14/12/2024 - 10:57

            @smartazz104: 100% this. Jag needed to do something rather than just slowly circle the drain. If that something is "make an ugly car that everyone is talking about" then I'm fine with that.

          • brendanm on 14/12/2024 - 12:10
            +1

            @smartazz104: I think it's more that people are laughing that jag has thrown away their entire brand history to make a moronic ad, ugly logo, and even uglier car.

            Most people would never buy a Jag because they are unreliable pieces of crap, though a lot of them do look good.

            • Gaz1 on 14/12/2024 - 17:38

              @brendanm: Jaguar will stop production of all models by next month & won't Start Selling New Cars Until 2026:
              https://www.motor1.com/news/740365/jaguar-no-new-cars-2026/

              It really surprised me & such a major gamble that is going to be hard to recover from I think.

              • brendanm on 15/12/2024 - 00:32

                @Gaz1: I'm sure that will work out well for them. People won't be talking about their crap ad and ugly car anymore come 2026. I don't think 3 gaudy influencers buying their gaudy car is going to keep them afloat.

              • McFly on 16/12/2024 - 23:06
                +2

                @Gaz1: So Jaguars do hibernate. Who knew?

            • Gaz1 on 17/12/2024 - 00:15

              @brendanm: Their SUVs look just like all the other SUVs on the market (boring), but I do like the style of the F-Type.

            • yamborghini on 17/12/2024 - 16:15
              +2

              @brendanm: All Jag needed to do was to lean into their a classic E-type Jag look but Electric to rebrand. It would be a mix of classic body and modern tech. All the new electric cars look so dull.

    • LVlahov on 13/12/2024 - 19:46
      +1

      Tesla will be fine. Remember their dealer footprint is small relative to the others, so they are not holding a lot of costs there relative to how many cars they sell. Their Australian operations could probably be profitable selling half as many cars, while many of their competitors wouldn't be profitable selling double their numbers.

      • Gaz1 on 14/12/2024 - 17:41
        +2

        I think the issue will be that their entire production is based on selling cars for about the current sell price & has had very little competition (and also relies on the Tesla fanboys).
        With the massive volume of cheap EVs with potentially better tech & features Tesla will need to make some very major changes to their production & models to be able to compete.

      • Brick Tamland on 14/12/2024 - 19:15
        +1

        No, Tesla weakness is the huge costs they hold. They don’t have dealerships to palm off cars so they hold all that unsold stock on the books. They also have those massive factories that mush has described as cash furnaces. If sales go down they are cooked.

        • BuddhaBoy on 15/12/2024 - 02:44
          +1

          Gigafactories dont just produce Tesla vehicles.

        • Gaz1 on 17/12/2024 - 00:16

          I seem to recall hearing that Tesla go massive grants or incentives to build their factories in certain states (and likely some environmental credits), so I suspect their is more to the balance sheet than purely the profit from the cars which may help.

          • Brick Tamland on 17/12/2024 - 07:51

            @Gaz1: Yeah I reckon you are right. Most of their profit is derived from lobbying legislative changes such as EV credits.

    • original15 on 13/12/2024 - 23:30

      JBhifi own the good guys (and E&S)
      JB share price has had a great 12m
      Will be interesting to see how it does as Amazon starts to compete even more in the appliances and white goods
      TGG sales are down but still generating decent profit ($600m) unless something comes out of the woodwork I think JB and TGG will be ok

      • Jase1 on 15/12/2024 - 09:13

        Amazon still dont deliver to everyone but we have JB and TGG

    • Pinchy on 14/12/2024 - 14:24

      If only it was HN. If only..

    • Brick Tamland on 14/12/2024 - 16:51

      What’s happened to Savic? I noticed they were looking for investors recently.

    • gromit on 15/12/2024 - 16:20

      Not sure I agree with Jag, while I hate the direction they are taking I was listening to an analyst and it may be a smart move, they are trying for a new audience as the one they currently rely on are aging out. They will either succeed very well or go down the gurgler, could be either way at this point.

    • MrThing on 16/12/2024 - 13:57

      GG and JB are owned under the same company so won't fold

    • Volg on 16/12/2024 - 18:31

      I have been following Savic with interest for years. Such a shame, I am with you on this one.

    • serpserpserp on 16/12/2024 - 22:53

      Tesla is going to have a bad year in Aus. next year. They wont go under, but will become a brand like Fiat and only sell 128 cars.

      I don't even like Tesla or Elon but this is probably the worst take in this whole thread. Plus I am likely to be a buyer of said Chinese EVs next year.

  • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:05
    +1

    Just Jeans… Like seriously, how does this chain of stores just keep on existing?
    Genetics? Jeanetics?

    • ProlapsedHeinous on 15/12/2024 - 00:34

      Jeanuine answers only please.

    • humperdoo on 15/12/2024 - 15:53

      Watched a video where a manager at a jeans factory (someones home in the slums) said it costs him 2USD to make a pair. Probably find someone who can for $1.

      • SupeNintendoChalmers on 18/12/2024 - 10:46

        Back in the day, my childhood best friends mum would stitch 'Country Road' labels on clothes from her shed.

        She always told us the clothes itself was not made in Australia, but she still had to stitch these 'Made in Australia' tags, because I believe it was technically "made in Australia" since she stitched said labels.

  • freefall101 on 13/12/2024 - 17:15
    +1

    Just Jeans… Like seriously, how does this chain of stores just keep on existing?

    They're going great guns

    Low cost, high margin clothing, exactly the market you want to be in when there's a cost of living crisis going on.

    • pegaxs on 13/12/2024 - 22:02
      +1

      Had a inlaw that worked there and she said that they could go for days without a sale. She said it wasn’t unusual to go a whole day without a person even setting foot in the store.

      I don’t think it’s the low cost, high margin that bothers them, but they have a fairly large footprint with stores that they just seem to be paying rent for while there is little to no foot traffic in a lot of these stores. The whole being able to order from home and not have to set foot in these stores is their biggest killer.

      • serpserpserp on 16/12/2024 - 22:57

        You'd be surprised at the deals premier investments get for their stores in a big mall. They are one of the biggest tenants so they have great bargaining power. They are probably better anchor stores than some of your big box tenants now.

        • SupeNintendoChalmers on 18/12/2024 - 10:48

          The Lews, Gandels, Milgroms and Besens are all close friends.

          They don't pay the same rents as others not in the club.

  • Cluster on 13/12/2024 - 17:17
    +13

    House (house.com.au)

    At my local shopping centre this store is literally always having an 80% off, once in a lifetime sale. Every few weeks they have a Closing Down sale with All Stock Must Go (but store reopens tomorrow with new stock). They must be absolutely desperate to sell those knives and pans.

    (Just kidding - these rubbish stores are immortal)

    • mrdean on 13/12/2024 - 20:24
      -1

      GRBA https://www.globalretailbrands.net/

      One just opened & replaced a small homewares store at my local shopping centre. House is all the usual home brand garbage (baccarat). The small one had a pretty varied & interesting collection of products. The owners said they had to move because of the increase in rent.

    • BuddhaBoy on 15/12/2024 - 02:45
      +7

      They have been ‘Closing Down’ since the last two decades…

    • alexdagr8 on 16/12/2024 - 22:18
      +1

      I’d say it’s simply false advertising with a massive markup

  • neoleo on 13/12/2024 - 17:19

    https://creditorwatch.com.au/blog/tough-start-to-2025-ahead-…

    https://creditorwatch.com.au/blog/creditorwatch-rates-16-2-o…

    The highest at risk is Hospitality (Food and beverage services) according to Creditor Watch (links above).

    Nene Chicken in George St. Sydney City maybe okay as it's mostly takeaway and very strategic location. Not sure about other stores.

    I know a family that still buy Nando's chicken like once a week. Don't know about financial situation of Nando's stores.

    • Jimothy Wongingtons on 13/12/2024 - 17:27
      +1

      Much to my bloody surprise nene chicken in what was Myer centre brisbane cbd is still alive too

      • neoleo on 13/12/2024 - 17:56

        CBD stores should be okay with higher foot traffic. I like Nene Chicken's freaking hot :P

    • SupeNintendoChalmers on 18/12/2024 - 10:49

      I know a family that still buy Nando's chicken like once a week

      Are they up to their 2nd or 3rd mortgage?

      • neoleo on 18/12/2024 - 16:59

        Nope. I don't think they have mortgage here.

  • Cluster on 13/12/2024 - 17:34
    +5

    I expect more shopping centre women's clothing stores to go bust as rents rise, interest rates stay high, and customers head to KMart to save money.

    Those stores sell pretty generic clothes for premium prices, and unless you're brand aware teenage girl most customers will be trading down.

    I remember going out shopping with a girlfriend to a 'factory outlet' (always hated that name, lol) strip mall. She bounced into one of the many stores catering to women's clothes and picked out a $400 (!!) jacket and said it's oh so nice. Very nice. $400! No, I didn't buy it for her.

    • serpserpserp on 16/12/2024 - 22:59

      So you went to bridge road

  • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:44

    I think the bottom is due to fall out the 4X4 accessory market soon, so there'll be dozens of players in that cohort who head south.
    The desperate way 4X4 Supacentre markets might be an indicator of their status. (Think, eyes bigger than stomach).

    Something might 'give' in the tools sales area a little further out.

    • mapax on 13/12/2024 - 17:53

      4wd Supacentre have always had marketing like that.

      • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:56

        Yeah I know, but it's ramping up even more, and the prices aren't exactly falling,or quality growing. There's a lot of smaller players at greater risk, but sometimes the big ones fall first.
        (overheads,staff levels etc)
        (I did say 'might' be an indicator.Time will tell)

    • derrida derider on 14/12/2024 - 10:34
      +4

      I reckon that's especially so as the whole "weekend warrior" thing driving double cab ute sales (with their aftermarket fruit) is largely all fashion and marketing - and fashion can change, and often has, remarkably quickly. And a flood of cheap and far better options (ie Chinese EVS) is just the sort of thing to turn it on a dime - 68 (count 'em) new models, most of them Chinese, set to hit our shores in 2025.

      Note I'm not saying there's no underlying market for double cab utes - just that an awful lot of people are buying them who objectively have much better choices available and are buying them purely on marketing-induced peer pressure and daydreams.

      • Protractor on 14/12/2024 - 11:00
        +1

        Yep,agree. And all those 4x4 and camper cohorts will eventually be fully equipped and the budget dried up .
        You can only fit so many 1 off accessories, and the pool has a bottom. And eg, spotlights. There's a hundred versions of Chinese rebranded ones out there. Not all shops specialising in stuff like that will survive.

    • Series4Episode10 on 14/12/2024 - 17:06
      +2

      4X4 Supacentre deserve to disappear, crap products crap customer service!

      • Protractor on 14/12/2024 - 18:09
        +1

        Hard to disagree.Shit business model. Pseudo-drop shipper with limited warehouses,expensive freight/handling costs, no click & collect,terrible support reputation when problems arise, ( they do often if reviews are even 50% true) and BIG claims about the quality and daily special prices as they bombard customers with spam. Not unusual for customers to get 4-6 emails a day.

    • R4 on 16/12/2024 - 12:44

      They've just opened a store in Midland and I had a chat with the manger of this store. That company is just going from strength to strength. I don't like a lot of their gear - but they sell it cheap and that's what most punters want. A lot of their stuff is crap but it obviously works for them. I went in to buy a Thumper compressor for my son for Christmas as it was a great price but most of their other products I wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

      • Protractor on 16/12/2024 - 13:10

        I agree with much of what you said, but they can't rely on 5% of their stock being the backbone for much longer. As ppl get burnt they'll shop elsewhere. And the o/heads of running it,in the face of everybody has already got all their bells & whistles done and dusted might take it's toll. I guess we'll see. But this whole retail area is way overcrowded.
        eg The 'water-proofness' of their Lethal spotties is wishful. They get internal condensation when a cloud goes past.

        • R4 on 16/12/2024 - 13:48

          The manager was telling me that they are are market share leader in roof tents - now that can only be because of cost as there are far superior options out there. Not all of their stuff is crap - I have their Thumper compressor and it's been going for years and is very powerful.

          I guess we'll find out soon enough how they're are really going.

      • serpserpserp on 16/12/2024 - 23:00

        don't like a lot of their gear - but they sell it cheap and that's what most punters want

        Just described the BCF business model

  • try2bhelpful on 13/12/2024 - 18:07
    +1

    Businesses are always doing this. I’m constantly surprised at what closes and what manages to survive.

    Clothing is tricky, especially with the advent of social media and influencers. Also a lot of “fast fashion” places just blatantly steal designs.
    I wouldn’t write off the Pancake Parlour, Nenes chicken, etc. Stores in popular places do well with the franchises. Some people are just interested in the food being a known quantity.
    Godfrey’s suffered because their range was too narrow and their product is in a lot of places now.

    The airlines is not a surprise. They were relatively successful for years until they stepped out of their wheelhouse.

    My suggestion is only buy gift cards if you are going to use them pretty much straight away.

    WCON.

  • cashless on 13/12/2024 - 18:11
    +21

    Please let it be Harvey Norman

    • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 18:53
      +14

      The Libs would probs bail Gerry out. Hit the public with a Gerry tax. ( not unlike the 10% GST he demanded & got from competition that wasn't even competition)

      • LVlahov on 13/12/2024 - 19:47
        +2

        He is continuously bailed out by both parties and the Greens by pumping in 10m extra Australians over the last 30 years. With that kind of business support you have to be an idiot to lose.

        • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 19:57

          Humans are a handy "renewable resource". But trend that won't last

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