2025 Australian Business Death Predictions (in Administration/Bankruptcy/etc.)

Comments

  • +25

    OK here are my picks:

    • Harris Scarfe. It already went into administration and then was bought by Spotlight.
    • Nandos. Quite a popular place for a couple of decades but I always see them empty now or turned into Caprichos due to their franchise dispute.
    • ZIP. This company has accrued so many losses, it's been on my list for several years. -$33m in losses in June 2024. They'll likely survive for a while.
    • Lime/Neuro/Scooter Rideshares. Well in Melbourne they've been banned. Don't see these companies making profit especially as people treat them like crap.

    Just speculating:

    • Pancake Parlour. It's a private company so don't really know how they're going but are people really going there these days?
    • Nenes Chicken. Feels like there are loads of Korean fried chicken places and not seeing what they offer that other places don't.
    • Catch. Seems like Catch, Kmart and Target all compete in a similar space. Probably would be better to consolidate them. I'd see Catch being merged into Kmart & Target
    • +18

      ZIP

      If only more people realised this shows on their credit file

      • +3

        Lol @ the negs… zippay negatively affects your credit file and credit providers don't like seeing BNPL enquiries.

        Surprisingly, Afterpay doesn't show up

        • -7

          Not yet for Afterpay. But any credit expect it to appear on your credit files. If you’re dumb enough to go with any BNPL provider you deserve to lose all your money.

          Expect to get fleeced at the 50-80% interest that they charge (with fees).

          • +3

            @alexdagr8: Horses for courses but if you want to avoid the surcharge when getting something delivered at centrecom use Afterpay.

          • +3

            @alexdagr8: I don't view it as a dumb decision to use their service if I'm getting something out of it. There's a certain face wash I like to buy and I could get 3x for $60 if I paid normally, or 3x for $45 if I used Afterpay.

          • @alexdagr8: afterpay is useful, not for credit, but auto-splitting payments to hit the 5 txs required by some cards.

        • +1

          I've had Zip pay for years and there's never been a credit enquiry on my file, same with Afterpay.
          I thought it was only Zip Money where they do a credit check on you.

          Either that or I was a really early adopter of Zip Pay and now they actually do credit checks but maybe they didn't before?

          • +1

            @bonezAU: same

          • +2

            @bonezAU: I've had the same experience. Whether it does appear on your credit check today, I don't know. All I do know is that my credit score is as good as it's going to get, Zip or no Zip.

    • zip

      Man remember that one year where they had 10% back on eligible purchases for december? Good times. After that they kinda dropped off the face of the earth.

      • Yep - only reason I had signed up to it. I think Zip and Zippay were slightly different though? I remember applying for a credit card they said they were different :/

        • +1

          they still operate under zipco but zipmoney and zippay are 2 different entities, zipmoney is a credit lender, zippay is a pay in installments setup with monthly payments and not limited to pay in 4 etc. i remember working for a company who took on zip pay when they first came to aus and they rejected me so the owner called them and said they would pull out of the partner ship if they are denying their workers, reason for this is their workers need to understand how the process works as a customer and seller as back then it was written applications to get it approved and not a portal.

    • +2

      I feel Nandos/PP/Nenes will all depend on location. For my locals of these, they are very busy.

      Target/Kmart will merge into one. It is 3/4 done already.

      • Agree on Nando's/PP/Nene's. If anything Nando's seem to want to expand as I get their e-mail invites to taste new menu items in their HO.

        PP- whilst overpriced but they seem to be doing OK.

        • +1

          PP- whilst overpriced but they seem to be doing OK.

          The thing with private companies, is no one really knows how well they are tracking from the outside. But generally when private they have far less shareholders to feed, and will be happy making a profit vs needing to make mega profits.

          It's the same reason Colesworth are fearful of ALDI, its a private company, they don't really know how deep their pockets can go in a price war.

          • @JimmyF:

            It's the same reason Colesworth are fearful of ALDI, its a private company, they don't really know how deep their pockets can go in a price war.

            As a private company if you run out of cash and the banks don't want to lend you can't raise more capital.

            I'd suggest Colesworths is more scared of Aldi for other reasons.

            • +1

              @netjock:

              I'd suggest Colesworths is more scared of Aldi for other reasons.

              Then you would be wrong. Go read up about the colesworth having a big cry a few years back about Aldi being a private company and not having to publicly share its financial position unlike Colesworth, so that was 'unfair' as ALDI can see theirs and they can't.

              As a private company if you run out of cash and the banks don't want to lend you can't raise more capital.

              A private company raises funds/capital like most companies do.

              Its just not on the public stock exchange for all to see.

              • @JimmyF:

                Go read up about the colesworth having a big cry a few years back about Aldi being a private company and not having to publicly share its financial position unlike Colesworth, so that was 'unfair' as ALDI can see theirs and they can't

                Colesworths is just talking rubbish. You believe it.

                Chapter 2M of the Corporations Act 2001 (Corporations Act) outlines which entities need to lodge financial reports. These include large proprietary and foreign control small proprietary companies. Link https://asic.gov.au/for-business/running-a-company/company-o…

                You can pay a fee to get a copy of Aldi's financial reports. Colesworths just bitter to have to pay a few hundred dollars (if that)

                How do I search for details of a company’s financial statements and reports?
                You can search for a company’s financial reports by performing a Document search. Not all companies are required to lodge financial accounts with us. If a company has lodged a copy of their financial accounts, they will appear on the company search and a copy of the document can be purchased online. Alternatively, you can contact the company directly.

                Colesworths have people all over it. Given the food retail industry is so small they probably know all of Aldi's suppliers. Don't think it is some kind of magic.

                A private company raises funds/capital like most companies do.

                If you think so you should read through this https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/fundraising/

                • @netjock:

                  You can pay a fee to get a copy of Aldi's financial reports. Colesworths just bitter to have to pay a few hundred dollars (if that)

                  Aldis pockets go far deeper than just its Australian arm. ASIC rules only apply to the Australian registered shell companies. You think they hold all the money?

                  If you think so you should read through this https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/fundraising/

                  See above, Aldi is far larger than just Australia, they can raise funds from the parent company overseas. They are not limited to just raising funds within Australia. Aldi Süd has global sales over $80b euros, ~$132B AUD, they have access to lots of funding sources if needed.

                  • @JimmyF:

                    Aldis pockets go far deeper than just its Australian arm. ASIC rules only apply to the Australian registered shell companies. You think they hold all the money?

                    If the financial statements say they are losing money then it is only a matter of time before the parent company cuts them off just like Bonza, Deliveroo, Citigroup, HBOS, Shell and numerous other companies that have left Australia.

                    Aldi head office can borrow all they want but at some point they are going to have a look at their profits all being shifted to Australia and they make as a group zero and debt is going to send them under they'll get the point.

                    You just fall to see how business works. It is just noise to get sympathy from consumers. Don't cry for Woolworths because they ploughed a lot of money int Masters and lost it all. In addition BigW is constantly losing money. Coles sent themselves into the arms of Wesfarmers first as Coles Myer Group then obviously not able to do the Coles, Kmart, Target thing.

                    In fact they are prime examples of raising capital and destroying shareholder value and diluting profits but you know lets point the finger at Aldi.

                    Don't know why you think it is true, obviously you are not concerned for their gauging but rather their profits.

                    You are pretty typical of Australians understanding of business. It is like some foreign invader with deep pockets, but there is a clear history of Coles and Woolworths screwing it up for themselves. Rio Tinto bought Alcan and had to get bailed out by the Chinese during the GFC. You can't make up a better story of digging stuff out of the ground and making bomb then imploding the business.

                    • +1

                      @netjock:

                      If the financial statements say they are losing money then it is only a matter of time before the parent company cuts them off

                      So like the Apple/Google/Facebook etc Australians arm companies then? Better cut them off as they are losing money all the time ;)

                      You just fall to see how business works

                      Sure, you right, me wrong 🙄

                      obviously you are not concerned for their gauging but rather their profits.

                      Why don't you go back and read the thread you felt the need to put your input into, as I said nothing that supported this claim.

                      You are pretty typical of Australians understanding of business

                      So that must mean you are from a foreign country if you know everything and Australians know nothing.

                      So why did you leave that country again?

                      • -1

                        @JimmyF:

                        So why did you leave that country again?

                        I went to work in another country because the companies here are so bad culturally and pay wise.

                        So like the Apple/Google/Facebook etc Australians companies then? Better cut them off as they are losing money all the time ;)

                        You really don't get it do you and never read a financial statement. There is real losses vs profit shifting. Your mates at Woolworths and Coles are just rubbish, it isn't hard to make money in a duopoly that is why Vegemite is cheaper in the UK than here.

                        Stop pretending that Aldi is opening up shops with some kind of under handed cheap capital. They are a German company not a charity for Australians. I worked at Proctor & Gamble and everyone knows what each other's margins are in retail / manufacturing because you can actually get access to benchmarking data if not through contacts.

                        • @netjock:

                          I went to work in another country because the companies here are so bad culturally and pay wise.

                          But you came back?

                          Your mates at Woolworths and Coles are just rubbish

                          LOL reading is hard. Show me the comment that I made supporting Colesworth over Aldi?

                          Stop pretending that Aldi is opening up shops with some kind of under handed cheap capital.

                          Again at what point have I said they are using cheap capital? I said being a private company the books are unknown and Colesworth had been complaining about it.

                          They are a German company not a charity for Australians

                          Getting a little unhinged, but again when did I say they are?

                          Fun fact, ALDI Australia is owned by the Hofer (KG) company, which is based in Austria. Not Germany 🙄

                          I worked at Proctor & Gamble

                          So you should know that ALDI is set up as Limited partnerships, and as such are not required to be audited nor to disclose their accounts to the corporate regulator aka ASIC? This was the entire reason Colesworth was having a hissy fit to ASIC. ALDI do have audits by KPMG (good choice not to use P&G it seems). These audits don't have to be shared.

                          Hence why your earlier comments had been laughable saying that Colesworth could just buy the report. But as a typical Australian, what would I know.

                          So back to my earlier statement, how deep ALDI's pockets are is a bit of a mystery to Colesworth.

                          • -3

                            @JimmyF:

                            So back to my earlier statement, how deep ALDI's pockets are is a bit of a mystery to Colesworth.

                            If you are in the supermarket business and there is listed supermarkets in Europe and you can't figure it out there is only two reasons. Too cheap or too stupid. Australian companies standard operations. I can't work it out so I'll just complain.

                            • +3

                              @netjock:

                              Too cheap or too stupid

                              Bit like the person who claimed you can pay a fee to get a copy of Aldi's financial reports. When you can't as ALDI is setup as a Limited partnerships 😂

                              You think someone with such strong views who claims to work at P&G would know that already, but here we are!

                              • -4

                                @JimmyF: You obviously know nothing. Just because it is a limited partnership doesn't make it some kind of magical entity that doesn't pay tax. They still do. It is all rubbish from Woolworths and Coles (yes I read the article about them complaining like it is some kind of secret). Even if you can't get it from ASIC you can still get estimates from business intelligence firms like IBIS World or Gartner.

                                You can also do internal benchmarking using proxies. You can also model it. Basically another European listed supermarket with similar footprint in the same overlapping markets.

                                But obviously you don't know that. Too much for you to process.

                                Problem seems to be you have zero business experience. P&G wasn't even the biggest company I worked for but you know drop a name and see how people react to check how low they could go.

                                • +3

                                  @netjock:

                                  Just because it is a limited partnership doesn't make it some kind of magical entity that doesn't pay tax

                                  I never claimed they didn't pay tax. That was all you.

                                  As a recap, I claimed they didn't have to make their P&L statement public, so how deep their pockets are, is a bit of an unknown. I claimed they can raise money via the parent company if needed. You claim they can't.

                                  You have spent all your replies telling me how wrong I am, only for you to find out they are a limited partnership arrangement, so they don't have to play by the ASIC rules like you claim 😂

                                  But obviously you don't know that. Too much for you to process.
                                  You obviously know nothing
                                  Problem seems to be you have zero business experience

                                  You love to put people down, does it make you feel better by doing this rather than sticking to the facts?

                                  but you know drop a name and see how people react to check how low they could go.

                                  And how did that work out for you?

                                  For someone who is meant to be in the business, you spend a lot of time claiming how better you are than everyone else. No wonder P&G let you go.

                                  • -3

                                    @JimmyF: LOL @ "let you go" is that a put down? ahahahhahahahahah

                                    Yeah whatever you think about Aldi HQ. Nobody is going to be expanding in Australia and lose money on every store. Just a fact. You like Colesworths think there is some kind of magic money tree.

                                    I just know better.

                                    Just because you can't get access to financial statements you think everyone is walking around in business blind with an unfair advantage.

                                    In business there is only so many leavers there is no magic money tree.

                                    • +3

                                      @netjock:

                                      I just know better.

                                      So you keep telling everyone 🙄

                                      LOL @ "let you go"

                                      So did you quit or did they let you go? It is a pretty simple question.

                                      • -3

                                        @JimmyF:

                                        So did you quit or did they let you go? It is a pretty simple question.

                                        You're not my boss so there is a 50/50 chance. Plus you've made you bed. Does it really matter considering your useless opinions

                                        • @netjock: So you got fired…. As I thought.

                                          • @JimmyF: If that is what you want to think and makes you sleep well at night.

                                            It is okay when you get things wrong, so you tell yourself.

                                            • @netjock:

                                              If that is what you want to think

                                              Happy to be proved wrong. So do it.

                                              It is okay when you get things wrong, so you tell yourself.

                                              A statement you must live by based on your posts here.

                                              • -1

                                                @JimmyF: End of conversation. Don't need to prove anything to you. You know something but not everything, just a time waster.

                                                • @netjock:

                                                  Don't need to prove anything to you

                                                  Oh but you have proven a lot to me based on your replies already.

                                                  You know something but not everything, just a time waster

                                                  LOL, considering you spent more time telling me how good you are than anything else, only to find out you got fired!

                                                  • @JimmyF: Time waster

                                                    • @netjock: Oh come on, why don't you tell me how good you are again, and how crap Australians are, and you know better than everyone else.

        • About 12 years ago I was doing due diligence on opening a Nando's in a Regional major town. The franchise agreement was just not favorable at all. I just couldn't make the numbers work even if it was going to be insanely popular. The amount of fees and capex I was going to have to put into it regularly was just way more than was justifiable. Nothing was negotiable in terms of timing on that stuff too. I can see how it has fallen by the wayside now, the franchisors make heaps of fees and do nothing for it.

          • @serpserpserp: Franchises always work for the master franchise, as franchisee you are at their mercy.

            All that dodgy business came to light during the Retail Food Group big fight between the listed master franchise (RFG).

            There was an article on Jim's group. On average every franchisee is making less than $100k. A franchise is around $30k buy in minimum.

            It is like property investment courses, all these successful people who want to share. If the secret formula was so good I'd just keep going and give the money to charity.

            • +1

              @netjock: Yeah mate, I know how franchises work. Some work better than others, but are few and far between these days. Absolutely risky business going into any franchise.

              • @serpserpserp: Did you end up going into one or start something on your own?

      • Nando's/PP/Nene's

        They're all QSR franchises. The individual franchisees may go under, and they regularly do, but Nando's/PP/Nene's don't lose cent if a store closes, or they take it back and sell the franchise and lease to another sucker.

        • +1

          They're all QSR franchises. The individual franchisees may go under, and they regularly do, but Nando's/PP/Nene's don't lose cent if a store closes, or they take it back and sell the franchise and lease to another sucker.

          That is pretty much the franchisee's model for all brands these days. Sell it to a sucker, bleed them dry as the location is flooded with competition, once out of money take it back for 'free', rinse and repeat.

          Oddly you have rent the store from them, buy their food, and pay all these costs. They are set up to fail.

          • @JimmyF:

            Oddly you have rent the store from them, buy their food, and pay all these costs. They are set up to fail.

            Wasn't the case with Nando's when I looked at it in terms of rent. But they really didn't help with much except they had to agree with the location somewhat as ultimately they have to sign off on how the fit out and signage was going to work etc

            • +1

              @serpserpserp:

              Wasn't the case with Nando's when I looked at it in terms of rent

              So they control the location, the look, etc and you have to rent what they say, as is what you found with Nandos. Pretty much the same thing :)

              Some franchisees you have to rent from the parent company like McDonalds, as they own the building/site, you just rent it.

              I guess the point was, a lot of your costs are dictated by the parent company. Your control over the profit you make is very limited at the end of the day.

              • @JimmyF:

                Pretty much the same thing :)

                Similar result. Not the same thing.

                McDonald's are at least good at picking sites. They know what will work usually. Other franchises think they know best but don't.

                But yes, all in all, most franchises in QSR are hard slog. Outside of KFC, McDonald's and Domino's hard slog to make a profit.

                • @serpserpserp: More than a hard slog. Franchises are overall a complete scam. For suckers with more dollars than sense or peeps looking for permanent residency.

    • +2

      Zip and Afterpay both in a race to post the biggest loss?

    • Last I checked Zip is actually making a profit now. Not a huge one, but still pretty safe from bankruptcy.

    • Not Nandos :(

      • +3

        I had not been to Nando's for about 10 years until about a month ago.. and have had it 4 times since.. easily the best chicken burgers out of HJ's, KFC, Maccas, Red Rooster, Chicken Treat & Oportos. Neck and neck with Grill'd I'd say.

        Grill'd and Nandos burgers leave you feeling similar to if you'd made your own at home - full & fresh, rather than feeling like you just had some horrid slop.. the rest.

        Easy worth the extra $3~$5 over the others now that their quality has slid over the years.

        • +3

          Neck and neck with Grill'd I'd say.

          lol anyone who has grill'd at the top of their list for a burger needs to do more research. I'm sorry.

          • @serpserpserp: Big time! Grill'd burgers are basic as!

            Fat Bobs (Moorabbin), Stanley Burgers (Scoresby) and Rizins (Dandenong) ftw.

            In fact, any Fish and Chip shop burger is better than a Grill'd burger.

    • +6

      Whenever I go to Pancake Parlour for the Winter Parlour (when it was good) at 11pm, it was pretty much always full, with families of people ordering full price menu items. So I have no idea why, but it seems to be doing pretty well in the SE Melbourne locations at least.

    • +8
    • +4

      Catch. Seems like Catch, Kmart and Target all compete in a similar space. Probably would be better to consolidate them. I'd see Catch being merged into Kmart & Target

      Catch is owned by Wesfarmers Unlikely being that catch is just an online business. Look at Big W and Bunnings, they are all just becoming an online marketplace for other businesses to be on. Just more eyes. More eyes, more better. Also, from memory, Catch is very automated in terms of dispatch (like Amazon), so costs would be minimal (I would've thought) in terms of staffing.

      I used to work for a web hosting company that had about six brands but offered the same thing for the same price via the same call center/support.

      • +1

        Woolworths have their marketplace

        Wesfarmers have decided to have Catch as the marketplace not a Kmart or Target which is strange. Problem for Wesfarmers for Kmart / Target / Catch is whether they fold it all into Kmart or they run multi brands and have some duplication in costs. Or they use Catch as an online brand to avoid dilution of Kmart because you have to sell online same price as Kmart rather than try to capture the profits.

        Don't work for Wesfarmers so not sure

    • -1

      ZIP has been expanding their US operations. I think they will be alright.

    • +1

      Disagree with Zip, they have turned a page. Did a raise, paid back expensive debt and margins have expanded. They're quite cashflow positive now.

    • +1

      Nandos

      @tightarse you better help fund your beloved restaurant!!

    • +1

      I think nandos won't go bankrupt but they might start closing a lot of their physical stores and focus on selling its sauces/spices. Nandos is big in the fitness community for somewhat low cal but great tasting spices/sauces. However, as this space is growing and alternatives are coming in, they could be in trouble.

    • I think the reasoning goes both ways with Nenes. Why go to those other places if there is Nene. It helps they are the default and have economies of scale.

    • +1

      ZIP has a $3.7B market cap and only $30m in losses. That is very close to profitable. It's like your household budget going $200 into savings.

      It's not going to fail.

    • Catch is owned by Westfarmer group now

    • +1

      Nandos need to get on the Ozbargain hype and start posting deals etc.

      When I was on a 90 days diet, I alternated between Nandos and Oporto.

    • Pancake Parlour is pretty popular when I've been, and people seem happy to pay the massively inflated prices. Although they do have deep discounts on specific days.

      • Yeah, I went there a few months back when it was cold and got a really cheap meal and drink.
        It was pretty good too.
        Probably been decades since I went previously.

    • Harris Scarfe is safe. Spotlight bought it for a bargain, closed some stores, likely ditched a majority of Harris Scarfe head office staff, now Harris Scarfe has huge buying power with suppliers as there is a lot of cross over with Spotlight products so they should have better margins than before the take over. The Spotlight owners obviously know what they are doing or they wouldn't be filthy rich.

    • Lime and other bike/scooter share have pretty good economics actually. As long as cities let them in, they will continue to operate.

      Small players (neuron, hello ride etc.) may pull out as they don't have enough scale, but all the big companies are here for the long run.

    • Nene chicken is delicious in Korea but for some reason idk why Australian stores are unable to replicate.

  • +3

    In before someone says Red Rooster…

    • +1

      Yeah, I'd usually agree but people on OzBargain seem to love it if you count the amount of deals.

    • +14

      I bloody hope not. Ain’t nothing hit like a rippa sub combo, other than the original rippa sub combo

      • +6

        Do they still add chips to their salt?

        • Haha that’s why u need combo with large Coke Zero…

    • +4

      People have been saying Red Rooster for decades, but here we are!

      • +1

        https://year13.com.au/articles/red-rooster-conspiracy

        Just saying…

        Never seen a customer there…

        if ever one does walk in they will be running around in a flap like… chooks with heads cut off. Obviously Clucked. lol

        • +1

          In regional Australia they can get pretty busy. I bought some yesterday.

        • +2

          @holdenmg

          They are like Los Pollos Hermanos from Breaking Bad.

        • They are big outside of Melbourne and Sydney even though the one local to me always has customers, not McDonalds busy but busy

    • Individual franchisees definitely.
      But the company is solid

    • Cartel front, won't go under

    • -3

      Red Rooster is becoming like KFC. No roast chicken anymore :(

      • Wait since when?

        • Go to the front page of the website. its all the fried stuff.

      • +1

        I doubt that very much

      • +1

        You're Fake news

    • RR is just a front. I thought that was already established

      • +3

        …a front for delicious chicken!

    • I don't know, I would have agreed with this a couple of years ago. However, now they've revamped their menu and added fried chicken (which is actually pretty damn good) they seem a lot more busy. At least the ones around my area.

      • the fried chicken actually is amazing if fried fresh and eaten straight away (in other words, dont get it delivered)

    • +1

      Red rooster has the best fried chicken of any fast food

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