2025 Australian Business Death Predictions (in Administration/Bankruptcy/etc.)

neil on 13/12/2024 - 16:07
Last edited 13/12/2024 - 16:10

Let's see what your predictions are for 2025 in the comments.

So far in 2024, on OzBargain:

and others of note:

Tupperware to close in Australia amid bankruptcy

Looking at the above list, I'd say Godfreys and Bonza was predictable.

Comment below with your guesses.

General Discussion Administration Bankruptcy

Comments

  • neil on 13/12/2024 - 16:08
    +2

    OK here are my picks:

    • Harris Scarfe. It already went into administration and then was bought by Spotlight.
    • Nandos. Quite a popular place for a couple of decades but I always see them empty now or turned into Caprichos due to their franchise dispute.
    • ZIP. This company has accrued so many losses, it's been on my list for several years. -$33m in losses in June 2024. They'll likely survive for a while.
    • Lime/Neuro/Scooter Rideshares. Well in Melbourne they've been banned. Don't see these companies making profit especially as people treat them like crap.

    Just speculating:

    • Pancake Parlour. It's a private company so don't really know how they're going but are people really going there these days?
    • Nenes Chicken. Feels like there are loads of Korean fried chicken places and not seeing what they offer that other places don't.
    • Catch. Seems like Catch, Kmart and Target all compete in a similar space. Probably would be better to consolidate them. I'd see Catch being merged into Kmart & Target
    • spackbace on 13/12/2024 - 16:27

      ZIP

      If only more people realised this shows on their credit file

      • spackbace on 13/12/2024 - 19:33

        Lol @ the negs… zippay negatively affects your credit file and credit providers don't like seeing BNPL enquiries.

        Surprisingly, Afterpay doesn't show up

    • Jimothy Wongingtons on 13/12/2024 - 16:31

      zip

      Man remember that one year where they had 10% back on eligible purchases for december? Good times. After that they kinda dropped off the face of the earth.

    • JimmyF on 13/12/2024 - 16:36
      -1

      I feel Nandos/PP/Nenes will all depend on location. For my locals of these, they are very busy.

      Target/Kmart will merge into one. It is 3/4 done already.

      • Craze on 14/12/2024 - 10:13

        Agree on Nando's/PP/Nene's. If anything Nando's seem to want to expand as I get their e-mail invites to taste new menu items in their HO.

        PP- whilst overpriced but they seem to be doing OK.

        • JimmyF on 14/12/2024 - 10:24

          PP- whilst overpriced but they seem to be doing OK.

          The thing with private companies, is no one really knows how well they are tracking from the outside. But generally when private they have far less shareholders to feed, and will be happy making a profit vs needing to make mega profits.

          It's the same reason Colesworth are fearful of ALDI, its a private company, they don't really know how deep their pockets can go in a price war.

    • Bruceflix on 13/12/2024 - 16:37

      Zip and Afterpay both in a race to post the biggest loss?

    • Aureus on 13/12/2024 - 17:11

      Last I checked Zip is actually making a profit now. Not a huge one, but still pretty safe from bankruptcy.

    • ThithLord on 13/12/2024 - 17:18

      Not Nandos :(

      • LVlahov on 13/12/2024 - 19:42

        I had not been to Nando's for about 10 years until about a month ago.. and have had it 4 times since.. easily the best chicken burgers out of HJ's, KFC, Maccas, Red Rooster, Chicken Treat & Oportos. Neck and neck with Grill'd I'd say.

        Grill'd and Nandos burgers leave you feeling similar to if you'd made your own at home - full & fresh, rather than feeling like you just had some horrid slop.. the rest.

        Easy worth the extra $3~$5 over the others now that their quality has slid over the years.

    • Kramo on 13/12/2024 - 17:48
      +2

      Whenever I go to Pancake Parlour for the Winter Parlour (when it was good) at 11pm, it was pretty much always full, with families of people ordering full price menu items. So I have no idea why, but it seems to be doing pretty well in the SE Melbourne locations at least.

    • CheapandUsed on 13/12/2024 - 18:53

      Pancake parlour

      How Scientologists Founded the Pancake Parlour

    • geekcohen on 13/12/2024 - 20:30
      +3

      Catch. Seems like Catch, Kmart and Target all compete in a similar space. Probably would be better to consolidate them. I'd see Catch being merged into Kmart & Target

      Catch is owned by Wesfarmers Unlikely being that catch is just an online business. Look at Big W and Bunnings, they are all just becoming an online marketplace for other businesses to be on. Just more eyes. More eyes, more better. Also, from memory, Catch is very automated in terms of dispatch (like Amazon), so costs would be minimal (I would've thought) in terms of staffing.

      I used to work for a web hosting company that had about six brands but offered the same thing for the same price via the same call center/support.

  • geek001 on 13/12/2024 - 16:17
    -1

    In before someone says Red Rooster…

    • neil on 13/12/2024 - 16:21

      Yeah, I'd usually agree but people on OzBargain seem to love it if you count the amount of deals.

    • Jimothy Wongingtons on 13/12/2024 - 16:29
      +5

      I bloody hope not. Ain’t nothing hit like a rippa sub combo, other than the original rippa sub combo

    • JimmyF on 13/12/2024 - 16:35
      +1

      People have been saying Red Rooster for decades, but here we are!

    • randomusername2017 on 13/12/2024 - 22:36

      Individual franchisees definitely.
      But the company is solid

      • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 16:32
        +1

        LOL
        She was exactly avoiding the boys in black on the day or calling them out, at that rally was she?
        (review the footage)
        Close to flirting. Hardly what I would call push-back.
        Good old Credlin, still as bitter as ever and still calling the shots for the Libs.
        She was our PM once, during the Abbott era.

        • Baysew on 13/12/2024 - 16:46
          +4

          Without trying to sound mean, you would have to be the most likely not to last out 2025.

      • freefall101 on 13/12/2024 - 17:05
        +1

        There is one single reason that Labor has been in power for the past decade and it's the Victorian Liberal Party.

        I actually like Pesutto, but he's lipstick on a pig. Most of his party are whackjobs who make his life incredibly difficult. As such, he has to spend his time playing whackamole with the worst elements of it to pretend that they're a centrist party. It's only people who read the Herald Sun and listen to 3AW who think the Liberal party is in any kind of electable state.

        I'd love a party that was fiscally conservative and wasn't pitching themselves as the only party that can hunt down the teenage transgender Somali warlords that supposedly roam Melbourne. But the Liberal party room either puts in a normal person then undermines them, or they put in a leader who undermines themselves.

        Anyway, sadly for jv, the next election isn't until 2026.

  • Dollar General on 13/12/2024 - 16:21
    +1

    Sexyland

    • mapax on 13/12/2024 - 16:58

      Can’t tell if you were negged by a degenerate who doesn’t want it to close or a prude who doesn’t like you mentioning the name…

  • spackbace on 13/12/2024 - 16:27
    +1

    Cheesecake shop
    Nissan

    • Baysew on 13/12/2024 - 17:41
      +2

      Citroën, after 100 years in Australia got their au revoir in 2024.

      Not that anybody really noticed.

      • jackary on 13/12/2024 - 18:51
        +1

        I’d do bad things for an aqua blue diesel C4 cactus. I noticed. :(

      • CheapandUsed on 13/12/2024 - 18:55
        +3

        I'd still grab a C6 as a second car, for long luxurious road trips to destinations that have extensive roadside assistance availability.

    • sharkyoz on 13/12/2024 - 19:14
      +1

      praying for cheesecake shop to shut, no cheese in their cakes but i cut plenty afterwards

    • LVlahov on 13/12/2024 - 19:44
      +2

      Jaguar.

  • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 16:32
    +4

    33% of coffee shops

    • Benoffie on 13/12/2024 - 17:07
      +1

      Actually, Gloria Jeans in SA after the Cibo rebrand.

      They tried before, so did Starbucks. All failed.

      That's an incoming disaster.

      • holdenmg on 14/12/2024 - 07:04
        +3

        Starbucks three shops in SA all closed.
        It wasn't real coffee, it was somewhere you went to buy overpriced warm water with a brown crayon whisk'd through, with some dairy whip and stale cinnamon atop.
        Usually, they spelled your name wrong, and if you got lucky you got another persons order that was better than your own.

      • Brightland on 14/12/2024 - 07:59
        +1

        I just about spat my coffee out when I read that Gloria Jeans were taking over Cibo, total oxymoron. If there isn't a decent independent around, then a Cibo was the next best bet. I won't be bothering with Gloria Jeans… I can see the franchisee's jumping ship at their first opportunity or dying a quick death.

  • MS Paint on 13/12/2024 - 16:33
    +4

    Was going to say cheapcheaplah but somehow I missed the memo and discovered it's already shut down.

  • Bruceflix on 13/12/2024 - 16:36

    Pop Phones

    Not sure how they have made it this far

  • mapax on 13/12/2024 - 16:54
    +1

    Carl's Jr. - 20 Restaurants Closed

    I think some of those have reopened? I saw that Clayton has reopened, and I think Lyndhurst might have as well.

    • RichardL on 13/12/2024 - 17:09

      My local Carl's Jr was converted to Hungry Jacks.

    • Hirolol on 14/12/2024 - 08:08

      Maybe aus side was bought out.
      Wonder the same thing every time I drive past the Clayton one
      I always try to see if anyone is inside

  • Edsanwong on 13/12/2024 - 16:55
    +2

    Myer
    David Jones

  • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:00
    -1

    Reserve Bank

    • mapax on 13/12/2024 - 17:01

      I think this is meant to be predictions of who will, not who should…

      • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:04

        I know . But the MSM, and the magnates and the fanboys of the trillionaire have spoken.They smell blood. And when they do, it's usually a matter of time, before they get their way.It's what bullies do. Not sure if they don't want a woman in control, or no control, period.
        But I do know think now that Trump is in, we should let chaos reign.These days the MSM has the steering wheel of our destiny.

  • pegaxs on 13/12/2024 - 17:02
    • Jaguar/Almost all the Stellantis group/Most of those French shitters (although DS will actually kick off for some head scratching reason)/Polestar
    • Savic Motorcycles in Melbourne will finally build about 5~10 bikes and almost immediately go into administration.
    • Osmosis clothing chain. Massive stores, but I never see anyone in there. Same goes with City Beach. MASSIVE stores, always empty.
    • Just Jeans… Like seriously, how does this chain of stores just keep on existing?
    • One of the big retail giants, I'm just not sure, JB, HN, Bing Lee, Good Guys… I got a gut feeling one of them is about to bite the farm. It will come as a shock and it will all be over either an ACCC fine or a bunch of professionals making good on a 90% off deal that was posted instead of a 9% deal.
    • Tesla is going to have a bad year in Aus. next year. They wont go under, but will become a brand like Fiat and only sell 128 cars. Their market share is about to be gobbled up by BYD, Zeekr, Nio, MG and whatever other Chinese EV maker that will be landing in the next 12 months.
    • brendanm on 13/12/2024 - 17:36
      -2

      I dunno, I think jags new ad, and stunning new car, will save the brand.

      • Cluster on 13/12/2024 - 17:41
        +1

        Well, the brand has been slowly circling the drain for years. Might as well finish the job.

        • smartazz104 on 14/12/2024 - 10:05
          +1

          People that have never bought a new Jag and were never planning to are upset that this new direction will prevent them from buying a new Jag…

          • johnno07 on 14/12/2024 - 10:57

            @smartazz104: 100% this. Jag needed to do something rather than just slowly circle the drain. If that something is "make an ugly car that everyone is talking about" then I'm fine with that.

          • brendanm on 14/12/2024 - 12:10

            @smartazz104: I think it's more that people are laughing that jag has thrown away their entire brand history to make a moronic ad, ugly logo, and even uglier car.

            Most people would never buy a Jag because they are unreliable pieces of crap, though a lot of them do look good.

    • LVlahov on 13/12/2024 - 19:46

      Tesla will be fine. Remember their dealer footprint is small relative to the others, so they are not holding a lot of costs there relative to how many cars they sell. Their Australian operations could probably be profitable selling half as many cars, while many of their competitors wouldn't be profitable selling double their numbers.

    • original15 on 13/12/2024 - 23:30

      JBhifi own the good guys (and E&S)
      JB share price has had a great 12m
      Will be interesting to see how it does as Amazon starts to compete even more in the appliances and white goods
      TGG sales are down but still generating decent profit ($600m) unless something comes out of the woodwork I think JB and TGG will be ok

  • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:05

    Just Jeans… Like seriously, how does this chain of stores just keep on existing?
    Genetics? Jeanetics?

  • freefall101 on 13/12/2024 - 17:15
    +1

    Just Jeans… Like seriously, how does this chain of stores just keep on existing?

    They're going great guns

    Low cost, high margin clothing, exactly the market you want to be in when there's a cost of living crisis going on.

    • pegaxs on 13/12/2024 - 22:02

      Had a inlaw that worked there and she said that they could go for days without a sale. She said it wasn’t unusual to go a whole day without a person even setting foot in the store.

      I don’t think it’s the low cost, high margin that bothers them, but they have a fairly large footprint with stores that they just seem to be paying rent for while there is little to no foot traffic in a lot of these stores. The whole being able to order from home and not have to set foot in these stores is their biggest killer.

  • Cluster on 13/12/2024 - 17:17
    +4

    House (house.com.au)

    At my local shopping centre this store is literally always having an 80% off, once in a lifetime sale. Every few weeks they have a Closing Down sale with All Stock Must Go (but store reopens tomorrow with new stock). They must be absolutely desperate to sell those knives and pans.

    (Just kidding - these rubbish stores are immortal)

    • mrdean on 13/12/2024 - 20:24

      GRBA https://www.globalretailbrands.net/

      One just opened & replaced a small homewares store at my local shopping centre. House is all the usual home brand garbage (baccarat). The small one had a pretty varied & interesting collection of products. The owners said they had to move because of the increase in rent.

  • neoleo on 13/12/2024 - 17:19

    https://creditorwatch.com.au/blog/tough-start-to-2025-ahead-…

    https://creditorwatch.com.au/blog/creditorwatch-rates-16-2-o…

    The highest at risk is Hospitality (Food and beverage services) according to Creditor Watch (links above).

    Nene Chicken in George St. Sydney City maybe okay as it's mostly takeaway and very strategic location. Not sure about other stores.

    I know a family that still buy Nando's chicken like once a week. Don't know about financial situation of Nando's stores.

    • Jimothy Wongingtons on 13/12/2024 - 17:27

      Much to my bloody surprise nene chicken in what was Myer centre brisbane cbd is still alive too

      • neoleo on 13/12/2024 - 17:56

        CBD stores should be okay with higher foot traffic. I like Nene Chicken's freaking hot :P

  • Cluster on 13/12/2024 - 17:34
    +3

    I expect more shopping centre women's clothing stores to go bust as rents rise, interest rates stay high, and customers head to KMart to save money.

    Those stores sell pretty generic clothes for premium prices, and unless you're brand aware teenage girl most customers will be trading down.

    I remember going out shopping with a girlfriend to a 'factory outlet' (always hated that name, lol) strip mall. She bounced into one of the many stores catering to women's clothes and picked out a $400 (!!) jacket and said it's oh so nice. Very nice. $400! No, I didn't buy it for her.

  • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:44

    I think the bottom is due to fall out the 4X4 accessory market soon, so there'll be dozens of players in that cohort who head south.
    The desperate way 4X4 Supacentre markets might be an indicator of their status. (Think, eyes bigger than stomach).

    Something might 'give' in the tools sales area a little further out.

    • mapax on 13/12/2024 - 17:53

      4wd Supacentre have always had marketing like that.

      • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 17:56

        Yeah I know, but it's ramping up even more, and the prices aren't exactly falling,or quality growing. There's a lot of smaller players at greater risk, but sometimes the big ones fall first.
        (overheads,staff levels etc)
        (I did say 'might' be an indicator.Time will tell)

    • derrida derider on 14/12/2024 - 10:34
      +1

      I reckon that's especially so as the whole "weekend warrior" thing driving double cab ute sales (with their aftermarket fruit) is largely all fashion and marketing - and fashion can change, and often has, remarkably quickly. And a flood of cheap and far better options (ie Chinese EVS) is just the sort of thing to turn it on a dime - 68 (count 'em) new models, most of them Chinese, set to hit our shores in 2025.

      Note I'm not saying there's no underlying market for double cab utes - just that an awful lot of people are buying them who objectively have much better choices available and are buying them purely on marketing-induced peer pressure and daydreams.

      • Protractor on 14/12/2024 - 11:00

        Yep,agree. And all those 4x4 and camper cohorts will eventually be fully equipped and the budget dried up .
        You can only fit so many 1 off accessories, and the pool has a bottom. And eg, spotlights. There's a hundred versions of Chinese rebranded ones out there. Not all shops specialising in stuff like that will survive.

  • try2bhelpful on 13/12/2024 - 18:07

    Businesses are always doing this. I’m constantly surprised at what closes and what manages to survive.

    Clothing is tricky, especially with the advent of social media and influencers. Also a lot of “fast fashion” places just blatantly steal designs.
    I wouldn’t write off the Pancake Parlour, Nenes chicken, etc. Stores in popular places do well with the franchises. Some people are just interested in the food being a known quantity.
    Godfrey’s suffered because their range was too narrow and their product is in a lot of places now.

    The airlines is not a surprise. They were relatively successful for years until they stepped out of their wheelhouse.

    My suggestion is only buy gift cards if you are going to use them pretty much straight away.

    WCON.

  • cashless on 13/12/2024 - 18:11
    +9

    Please let it be Harvey Norman

    • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 18:53
      +6

      The Libs would probs bail Gerry out. Hit the public with a Gerry tax. ( not unlike the 10% GST he demanded & got from competition that wasn't even competition)

      • LVlahov on 13/12/2024 - 19:47
        +1

        He is continuously bailed out by both parties and the Greens by pumping in 10m extra Australians over the last 30 years. With that kind of business support you have to be an idiot to lose.

        • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 19:57

          Humans are a handy "renewable resource". But trend that won't last

  • Sye on 13/12/2024 - 18:11

    in Administration/Bankruptcy

    Changes my predictions and manifesto

  • elgrande on 13/12/2024 - 19:29

    Good Guys

    • Jimothy Wongingtons on 13/12/2024 - 19:53
      +2

      But they’re owned by jb?

      • elgrande on 13/12/2024 - 22:10
        +1

        Yes, but they need to hide those telstra break fee losses somewhere.

  • mrdean on 13/12/2024 - 20:14

    I expect Williams Sonoma to fold soon.

    Any small businesses that don't own their properties to go to the wall too.

    Maybe even online businesses like Everten/Kitchenwarehouse as well.

  • mr fox on 13/12/2024 - 22:15
    +3

    The whole state of Victoria going belly up.

    • Protractor on 13/12/2024 - 23:08

      Nah mate. You've got Eddy Maguire.

    • derrida derider on 14/12/2024 - 11:11

      The old joke: Q: "What's the capital of Victoria?". A: "A dollar fifty"

      But seriously, states cannot go belly up because constitutionally their debt is guaranteed by the Commonwealth. And the "Vic in massive debt" meme is not completely wrong but it is hugely overstated - an AA debt rating for a province is still pretty good internationally.

      It only looks bad in comparison to WA and Qld, who are drowning in cash from mining export royalties and some incredibly generous deals with the feds on revenue sharing (made by the last government for political reasons).

  • leiiv on 13/12/2024 - 23:32
    -1

    What about Prezzee?

  • dmac on 14/12/2024 - 00:31
    -1

    Damn. I'm disappointed this isn't related to Luigi Mangione!

  • tonypepperoni on 14/12/2024 - 01:33
    +1

    I hope it is Afterpay. 6% fee for small business because they “advertise” you on page 120 of their website lol

    More realistic is Target. Once leases expire in locations with nearby Kmart I don’t see them being renewed.

    • try2bhelpful on 14/12/2024 - 07:21

      The Target in Melbourne CBD became a Kmart. I think you are probably correct.

  • rinbond on 14/12/2024 - 06:35
    +1

    Victorian labor party

    • holdenmg on 14/12/2024 - 07:06
      +2

      Victorian "Liberal" Party. lol

  • holdenmg on 14/12/2024 - 07:20
    -3

    OK, going out on a limb here…

    Actually I was on the Limb, but way further out, and damn the last leaf just fell.

    Right, I'm going for it…

    In 2025, the thing that will go will be…

    (Drumroll).

    The BBQ outside Bunnings.

    Yes, those Vego's, Vegans and Tofu huggers will take over and it will fail.

    The novelty of a Tofu Burger with Aioli will pass
    and BBQ with Hot Dogs with Onion underneath (or wearing) Onions will be no more.

    People will drive to Bunnings, realise something is missing and just wander about not quite sure why they went or what to do.

    • Benoffie on 14/12/2024 - 07:41
      +2

      Dunno, they got a flogging with the Onion Fiasco.

      • holdenmg on 14/12/2024 - 07:47
        +1

        If it isn't broke, you don't try to fix it.

        (But if it is broke, Bunnings have the lowest prices for the Tools you need). lol

    • johnno07 on 14/12/2024 - 11:04

      OK, going out on a limb here…

      You can enjoy vegetables, vegan food, tofu, AND Coles economy snags.

    • Protractor on 14/12/2024 - 11:14

      Snagger zombies, on the prowl for charred flesh.
      Solution?
      (I hear vegans taste like crocodile, which tastes like chook)

      Price check! Ozito chainsaw!.

  • holdenmg on 14/12/2024 - 07:54
    +1

    Also…

    Bank Branches will close on 30 June and never reopen.

    Just ATM's then and $3 a go with Comm Bank and a a series of Advts
    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/huge-change-for-commonweal…
    while you wait for your money.

  • Minimum chips on 14/12/2024 - 09:01
    +2

    Kathmandu, Superdry. Overpriced speciality clothes with high margins but also mid to high rents to pay, so if as I suspect business falls off a bit they could teeter.

    Kathmandu have BCF, Anaconda to compete with, where you can get more of what you need for actual camping etc.

    Superdry quality and brand profile fell off years ago, amazed they've lasted this long.

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