Is It Wise to Bet on Bitcoin for The Long Term? My Super Fund Dilemma

welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 15:43

I wanted to share something personal and hear your thoughts—no judgment, please! About a year ago, I decided to allocate a portion of my $175K super fund into Bitcoin through my SMSF. Fast forward to now, and that portion has appreciated significantly. The returns have been nothing short of juicy, and I can't help but wonder if this could be the path to financial freedom.

I still have about 15 years until retirement, which brings me to a big question: Should I hold onto this Bitcoin investment for the long haul?

If Bitcoin even comes close to repeating its performance from the past decade, I could be completely financially independent when I retire. That’s the dream, right? But the flip side is terrifying—if Bitcoin crashes and never recovers, I could lose that portion of my super fund.

Is this a calculated risk worth taking, or am I playing with fire by relying so heavily on Bitcoin?

I’m genuinely looking for perspectives. What would you do in my shoes?

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

        • welcomeUniverseWorld on 18/12/2024 - 00:05

          That is the worry. I kind of know it. However I am still in it

  • May4th on 15/12/2024 - 17:09
    +4

    if your investment horizon is 15 years you have time to ride out another cycle or two. risk manage your portfolio and rebalance accordingly. keeping 5-10% in btc is very low risk. your risk in crypto is likely to be greater with custody rather than its value itself. are you storing it on an exchange or cold wallet?

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 17:15

      Cold wallet . Do not trust exchange after FTX.

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 17:25

      That is precisely the point. If there are another two cycles, it could result in a 10x increase from the current level. Such growth would represent a significant and impactful rise on the smsf portion. On other hand, if we do not get any more cycle I am …

      • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 18:11
        -1

        I think there is less risk now holding BTC than all years prior. Having said that, A lot of people get too greedy and go 100 percent in, when in reality, they only need to allocate 5 percent of their overall investment assuming a retirement over a decade from now. Considering Bitcoin is currently in the bullish cycle, you would be better off riding the current wave which according to past waves is due to exhaust around dec next year(assuming past chart behaviour…past performance etc…). At that point, It would probably be a good time to readjust your position into more conservative investments. Ive been in BTC since 2013, and I still think BTC is in a very early stage of adoption. There is still al lot of people who laugh at it and don't fully understand it.

        This is going to take a long time(shorter if economic collapse) for people to acclimatize and wrap their heads around digital scarce assets like bitcoin. According to your 15 year retirement window, BTC is predicted to be anywhere from 2 million to a billion (if you believe Fidelity's estimates) run those values against your holdings. Yes, BTC is speculative, but it does have intrinsic value due to the usefulness of the underlying blockchain, the real money and labour required to mine the coin assuring its security, Its worldwide recognition, its auditability, its global database redundancy and its use as a store of value without having the risk of inflation. also It can be transported globally either physically or digitally, stored cheaply, and easily passed on to heirs without requiring intermediaries to register the transfer of ownership. its a bearer instrument where whoever has the private keys, owns the value within the associated addresses.

        Worthy of note: There is talk and has been of so called "Super Cycles" where the supply dries up to the point where the price rises sharply. If this happens, I suspect it will create a bit more of a panic frenzy buy by people who may have a toe or two dipped in but perhaps may not have pulled the trigger yet to buy some. Nobody knows the real supply available, or at what price people with a lot of btc would be willing to liquidate their coins back into the market. All i know, is If the US government goes through with their plan to buy a million over 5 years, Other countries are going to want to do the same thing. If that happens then theres no real limit to bitcoins price and I daresay that may be the point where the price never goes down as countries fire up the paper money printer to secure as much BTC as possible. At some point I think the Middle east and Russia may start demanding BTC for their oil and gas exports, then it gets even crazier… Maybe the 1 billion per coin prediction from fidelity may not seem so crazy…

  • JIMB0 on 15/12/2024 - 17:27
    +19

    Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a speculation. It has no intrinsic value like a business that has tangible assets and income, therefore you can't really put a value on it.

    • KangaDrew on 15/12/2024 - 17:39
      +2

      <Peter Schiff has entered the chat>

    • trapper on 17/12/2024 - 13:10

      It's kind of like trading the shares of a bankrupt company.

      No underlying value at all, but somehow the actual shares themselves have become collectors items.

    • congo on 19/12/2024 - 14:38

      Then why on earth is it doing so well?

    • orangecarpet-22 on 21/12/2024 - 13:36

      $97,400 USD at time of writing.

  • Protractor on 15/12/2024 - 17:28
    +2

    Put it all on uranium, and sue Duttons arse if the plan goes pear shaped.

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 17:54

      hahaha

    • neonlight on 17/12/2024 - 20:24

      Sue him!? He won't be our PM and no reimbursement

      As long as he is in liberal leading them…. I will not vote liberal for that reason

      • Protractor on 17/12/2024 - 20:31
        +1

        He'll do anything for your precious vote. Anything

        ( He makes Gollum look like Megan Fox.)

  • daft009 on 15/12/2024 - 17:44
    +1

    Timely question thanks.

    I have a bit too since 2011-2012 ish. Only held it so long as I'm basically at no loss no gain standing since then.

    Leaning towards just hanging on to it, unless it makes me a millionaire or ends up 0..

  • Cluster on 15/12/2024 - 18:07
    +1

    If Bitcoin even comes close to repeating its performance from the past decade, I could be completely financially independent when I retire.

    Bitcoin has increased in price around 300x during that time. Betting on performance close to that is delusional, unless inflation becomes rampant and we're paying $1000 for a loaf of bread.

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 18:21

      I would take even 10x mate

      • Protractor on 15/12/2024 - 18:29

        Why ask strangers for advice then?
        Either make the call or trust (choose) your super-fund. Are they all turgid over BTC?

    • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 18:25
      -1

      100x is easily doable. Money supply is ever expanding, 900 trillion in assets globally, a lot of that will start to move over to get the mad CAGR, even if it's 10-15% over the next couple of decades coming down slowly from 60% it has historically been.

      • welcomeUniverseWorld on 18/12/2024 - 00:07

        I will have a heart attack from happiness if we get 100x. A poor person can take so much

  • Malik Nasser on 15/12/2024 - 18:25
    +7

    Do yearly rebalances.
    If you generally hold 1%-5% of your total assets in Bitcoin, then each year rebalance. If Bitcoin performs well (as per the last year), then sell down and rebalance to your usual allocation.
    In a years time, if Bitcoin tanks, you will have to decide if it is worth buying more Bitcoin as your asset allocation to Bitcoin could be below your allocation threshold.
    Bitcoin has generally followed a 4 year cycle, with spectacular highs, and bone crushing lows.
    Have a mechanical system so you dont have to think about it.
    If you go back a year or two, everyone was saying it was the end of crypto. Now look where we are.
    You need to do your own research, as this is a very polarising topic. People either love it or hate it. Your unlikely to get a balanced opinion from most people here.
    If you are stressing about it, and it is keeping you awake at night, it pretty much means you are holding more than you are comfortable with. Sell down some, and sleep easy.

    • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 18:27

      Agree. BTC is still a baby. you do not need much for it to make a massive difference to your portfolio over the longer term. so why risk restless sleep for a few more digits in your bank account.

  • DingoBilly on 15/12/2024 - 19:05
    +2

    With something serious like the funds I'm using for retirement I don't want to take significant risks.

    Yeah you might 10x your money but losing 90% of it would suck and leave you up shit Creek for retirement. Traditional investments are boring but unlikely to have massive swings.

    I think the advice of selling majority of it and reducing risk significantly is wise.

  • p1 ama on 15/12/2024 - 19:12
    +6

    Is this a calculated risk worth taking, or am I playing with fire by relying so heavily on Bitcoin?

    You are playing with fire to rely on any singular asset - investing in single assets can be fun for a bit of a punt, but ultimately it is gambling and I would never invest any money in a single asset which I'd be unhappy to lose. Similar to taking a punt on a sports match or going to the casino. Remember that everyone's a genius in hindsight.

    The only long-term investment strategy is to hold a diversified portfolio, especially if you are nearing retirement and this is going to be your key source of income.

    I'm not against YOLO bets, it's a bit of fun when you're 20 and losing all of your savings is not the end of the world, it's different when you're 50 and your investments are your lifeblood.

  • Tiredman on 15/12/2024 - 19:17
    +7

    This place is fairly anti bitcoin so it's up to you. I've been posting about Bitcoin here since 2017/2018 and seen some horrendous takes over the years, most of them have gone silent now. I'm in for the long haul but it's not my only investment. I'm fairly diversified.

    • daft009 on 15/12/2024 - 22:05
      +2

      I got told about it by a mate in late 2010.
      He was mining 20btc per day back then

  • localhost on 15/12/2024 - 19:26
    +1

    Just leave $50k in BTC and move the rest in normal super fund. With 7-8% early growth this sum will double for 10 years.
    And those $50k might be cherry on top if bitcoin performs the same way or will insignificant lose.

  • Dollar General on 15/12/2024 - 19:42
    +1

    Depends on your view of bitcoin. Today bitcoin is nothing like what Satoshi Nakamoto envisaged. Wall St all over it now and it’s become a commodity not a currency

    • tomlikesbeetroot on 17/12/2024 - 12:24

      I'm probably in the minority, but the only time I ever use bitcoin is as a currency.
      I don't hold any BTC, but buy the exact amount I need for a purchase, then send it immediately.

      • Drpepper666 on 17/12/2024 - 15:08
        +2

        AFP headed to your door now

      • May4th on 18/12/2024 - 11:49

        how many btcs does it cost to hire a hitman nowadays?

    • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 18:29

      Agree. Everyone is buying btc now based on how awesome it used to be pre BCH fork. I think BCH is one to keep an eye on at this point. Only thing that makes it more risky is the low hash rate, but in time I think BCH will steal more BTC hashpower as it grows and becomes its own peer to peer electronic cash as satoshi originally developed..

  • Peza on 15/12/2024 - 21:24
    +3

    Follow the cycle.. be prepared to sell up in the next 6 mths and rebuy in late 2026 / early 2027

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 21:25

      How does the cycle go?

      • JIMB0 on 16/12/2024 - 07:23

        Pump then dump.

      • Peza on 16/12/2024 - 08:38
        +8

        Cycles are around every 4 years..
        Without going into to much details, bitcoin halving occurs approx every 4 years, so the reward to mine becomes less, which means value of BTC goes up.

        Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024. Typically the bull market starts around 6 months later which is where we are now. (Large gains since early November)

        Bitcoin has gone up from 60kUSD to around 100kUSD - and likely has more to go with conservative predictions of $120k USD all the way to over $200kUSD for more aggressive predictions.

        When BTC starts peaking, it will stagnate for a while, people/traders will start selling bitcoin and moving into other coins/projects (meme coins, tier 1/2 projects - most speculation), they will get a run up hard and drop hard.

        There will be a couple of volatile corrections/manipulation - key example last week when there was a decent drop, but also a decent recovery. These are likely to get people to sell up or hit stop-loses. Some say trumps inauguration on Jan 6 could swing it either way, and possible another correction/volatile period come march-may.

        Eventually one of these drops wont stop.. then that's the bear market. When will that happen? no one knows.. you need to be on the watch.. could be March 2025, June 2025 or as most predict somewhere around Sep/Oct 2025.. I wouldn't be hanging around that close.

        To complicate things, BTC has matured this time around. There are EFT's, Blackrock is on board etc.. no idea how this will impact things. Could BTC become more stable? probably.. My opinion is it will dip again in the bear cycle. Under normal cycles, you would see what its peak was and make a guesstimate to where it would drop. I wouldnt be surprised to see it hit the 50-60k USD mark again in 2027, but with Blackrock invested, the dip might be less (i.e. 80k?) If you look at some charts (tradingview) and see how it moved after the peaks of 2021, 2017 etc..

        You can sell % at certain point (if you are happy at 100K, sell 25%.. if it hits 120k, sell another 25% etc..) its not all in or all out.. But set a goal now without emotion and stick to it.. be happy to gained more than 5-10% elsewhere.

        Long term, i think it definitely would be good to own BTC.. I plan on buying in myself come 2027.. I'm out of BTC now and into other projects for the remainder of this cycle.

        Everyone has their own views, and im sure many on here will view things differently, but that's what makes crypto such a beast.

        Good luck and hope that helped

        • welcomeUniverseWorld on 16/12/2024 - 09:27

          Thanks mate. Really good explanation. Appreciate it

        • jar-unit on 18/12/2024 - 13:14
          +1

          How many cycles have you been through?

  • bargaino on 15/12/2024 - 23:00
    +5

    If you put all your money into tulips in 1634, …
    In the long term, we are all dead.

  • Bargain-er on 16/12/2024 - 07:19
    +1

    I'm in a similar situation. Have a portion of SMSF in Crypto, have hopes all up but also realise that it will go down as part of cycles. The trick is when to sell. Someone advised in 6 months which is pretty logical. I m thinking to sell up starting January. Again the trick is when to sell. Additionally, people are dreaming abt becoming overnight millionaires. It is not without high risk, sometimes super high ones.

  • Chewy2221 on 16/12/2024 - 09:29

    I was listening to an investment guru recently. He indicated that large amounts of US debt will need to be "rolled over" in the second half of 2026. He expected that this would have major impacts on US stocks & potentially other investments. I suspect that this information is easy enough to verify. This might be one of your considerations. What will this do to the Bitcoin price? I don't know. If it were my investment, I would probably sell 60- 70 percent so that I have recouped my investment & taken a small profit. If Bitcoin goes to zero, then you haven't lost anything. Good luck

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 16/12/2024 - 09:38

      I did not know that. I would be way out of this then long before :). Thanks for the information. I will google and find more information. Surely will run away before that and maybe buy back again if it drops considerably

      • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 18:49

        I personally would never risk being completely out of bitcoin. You never know when the supply might dry up and send the price vertical. I always have some skin in the game.

        • Protractor on 17/12/2024 - 20:32

          The snake eats it tail. Running out of something that isn't there.

  • JownehFixIT on 16/12/2024 - 09:54
    +2

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DDRAJjGJqX7/?igsh=ZXV6cWt4NzB…

    These be the vibes of crypto to me…

    • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 18:52

      Hilariously true. BUT…. only if you don't understand it and panic sell when the price goes down that will that happen. This is why you need to have the confidence and conviction that the price is eventually going to keep pushing upwards if you are patient.. Its not for the feint of heart and certainly a lot of newbies have been burned by it.

      • JownehFixIT on 17/12/2024 - 21:47

        There are way more stories of pump and dump schemes that I've seen, versus actual success stories. Seems like BTC and ETH are the only ones that were doing well last time I looked into it (ages ago!).

  • mitchalbrown on 16/12/2024 - 12:13
    +2

    There's a lot of hate for BTC here as an investment. There are now spot ETF's for BTC and Ethereum which are being managed by very reputable financial institutions. I do find it strange that this has not swayed anyones thoughts on it as a legit investment.

    What would change minds if not that?

    • apsilon on 16/12/2024 - 12:56
      +1

      I don't hate it, it's clearly an investment worth some consideration but that consideration needs to take into account both the pros and cons. I dismiss the meme coins completely as they're basically a con but bitcoin was created to be an alternate currency however it's completely failed at that so given it's a virtual object and it's useless for it's intended function, there's a very real risk that at some point people are going to realise that it's essentially worthless and it'll completely crash. Some people have and will make good money from it but others are going to lose and potentially lose more than they can afford. You should never invest more than you can afford to lose but the huge returns have tempted people a lot of people to go all in and for many of those the likely outcome is complete ruin.

      • mitchalbrown on 16/12/2024 - 14:40

        What you are saying totally makes sense for the uninitiated but you haven't offered any insight into why the likes of JP Morgan, Blackrock and various other financial instutions have staked their reputation by creating ETF's for these assets. If it's considered a failed currency and it's virtually useless then what are the above mentioned funds seeing in it?

        It's one thing to convince a whole heap of contrarians that bitcoin is the future of money and cash is trash but I think we are well past that… Convincing wall street to offer it with legal frameworks means that a bunch of really smart educated people have looked at it and decided that it has value and is a reasonable long term investment.

        Just trying to understand what it would take for BTC/ETH to get legitimacy… whats the next hurdle? It seems to have overcome every one so far.

        • apsilon on 16/12/2024 - 16:14
          +5

          They're offering it because they can make money out of it. The same reason they do anything. It's failed as a currency but people are currently gambling with it and that gives it value currently.

          Get legitimacy in what sense? As a currency? I don't think it can without essentially failing and stabilising at a low, as in a few dollars, value. As in investment? I think it's entirely legitimate as is but it's very high risk and potential high returns. It just depends on being lucky enough to find a chair when the music stops for good. Some people will get rich but most will get burned, possibly incinerated.

          • mitchalbrown on 16/12/2024 - 16:35

            @apsilon: What you are describing is a ponzi scheme…. but the SEC gave BTC and ETH ETF's the green light, allowing these institutions to offer it as an investment. They were unable to offer these until the SEC determined that they were not a ponzi scheme.

            Without getting into an ideological argument, It's generally accepted that bitcoin is considered a store of value more than a currency… so it's more analogous to gold.

            It is volatile and runs in cycles so it is a short term high risk if you haven't got the time to be in the market and ride out the waves but i think it's fair to say it's relatively low risk when just making up 5-10% of your risk adjusted portfolio.

            • apsilon on 16/12/2024 - 17:23
              +1

              @mitchalbrown: The meme coins basically are the definition of a ponzi scheme but the larger cryptos are more legit and you're right, they are being treated as stores more so than currency.

              • mitchalbrown on 17/12/2024 - 07:27

                @apsilon: yes, I agree. Meme coins are a ponzi which people gamble on. This is why the SEC hasn't approved a pepe ETF.

              • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 18:54

                @apsilon: Meme coins still have better odds than a casino… But yes they are just for a bit of fun and no serious amounts of money should ever be put in there unless you're already loaded in which case go nuts.

            • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 17:38
              +2

              @mitchalbrown: Bitcoin is like the opposite of gold. One is defensive, low growth and stable and a store of value, the other is none of that.

              • mitchalbrown on 17/12/2024 - 07:32

                @SlickMick: I think if you look at a chart of gold and bitcoin, they follow a similar path. When fiat currency shows weakness, people flee to forms of value store which hedge against that. Bitcoin will become more popular for this purpose as it is more accessible.

      • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 17:35
        +1

        I agree with everything you said except:

        it's clearly an investment worth some consideration

        everything else you said contradicts that; and

        You should never invest more than you can afford to lose

        You should never gamble more than you can afford to lose, and you shouldn't confuse gambling with investing

        • apsilon on 17/12/2024 - 05:52

          I've said the same thing in a couple of replies. I don't think it has a future long term unless the price corrects dramatically and it can actually become a currency. But if you can afford the risk then a short term investment may be worth it but it is high risk so don't play with money you can't afford to throw away. Everyone talks about it in cycles like it's a sure thing and can only go up long term and many have bought in to that but that's pure speculation. As they say, the only sure things in life are death and taxes.

          • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 18:58

            @apsilon: At this point it has completely lost its value as a currency. There are better coins like Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Monero for perr to peer. I can certainly see bitcoin being spent through intermediaries though, where you deposit it it a bank and use their existing network to spend it. This will eventually happen because the banks will be interested in buying your bitcoin from you and thats the best way to acquire it without pumping the price by buying it at market rates. This goes totally against what Satoshi designed it for, but it is what it is. I can see BCH hitting 5 digits this cycle and its going to surprise a lot of people,

    • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 17:31
      +1

      There has certainly been some events that could justify a gambler piling on. (Obviously ETFs mean lots of buying which artifically inflates the price.)
      The trick is to dump before everyone else does, and that's were lots of people are going to get hurt.

      There are many ETFs I wouldn't touch. But I'm sure they have lots of warnings to ensure they don't get sued when that big aha moment comes.
      Financial companies will make lots of money selling people what they want, and it's no lose to them when it dissolves.

      • May4th on 16/12/2024 - 21:16

        ah I remember the days when people worshipped Cathy Wood

  • AndyRates on 16/12/2024 - 14:29

    Is it still good to buy Bitcoin at $106K USD?

    • mitchalbrown on 16/12/2024 - 14:42
      -1

      If you are asking this question then the answer is a no… When you understand markets and cycles you will know when it's time to buy bitcoin.

  • CatalystX on 16/12/2024 - 19:32
    +7

    Don't listen to a single soul on this forum. Great job on your investment, most people on this forum have no idea how to invest and were shitting on bitcoin a year ago. The last thing you need to do is get advice from people here. You obviously made the right choice by buying bitcoin back then so stick to your own decision. The amount of hate for bitcoin on this forum is appaling when it has done nothing but gone up for 14 years. In my personal opinion, if you're planning to hold it for longer (5+ years), you should hold only because bitcoin is designed to counter the debasement of fiat currency. Governments are going to be forced to put themselves into perpetual debt for years to come which will devalue all fiat currencies. Good luck mate

    • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 21:55

      Sounds like you haven't been around long enough to see what happens when prices are pushed beyond intrinsic value

      • May4th on 17/12/2024 - 08:38

        zoom out and breathe. I'm not for watching the charts, 'time in market don't time the market' applies to any asset class (apart from memecoins)

    • cloudbox on 17/12/2024 - 22:47

      This. The historical returns on BTC don't lie. I too was a sceptic but took the time to read, learn and ask questions - there is value in holding it as part of a diversified portfolio in my opinion. The debasement of fiat currencies is real especially considering the huge inflation in the past few years and it won't stop - yet people still choose to hate on BTC.

      I truly think we are the beginning of traditional finance integrating it in mass market portfolios - ETFs, AMP superfunds etc..

      Yeah but basically don't listen to anyone on this forum - make your own judgements and decisions.

    • Agret on 19/12/2024 - 14:46

      Great job on your investment, most people on this forum have no idea how to invest and were shitting on bitcoin a year ago.

      Don't worry, i've been shitting on it since it was possible to mine it on your GPU at home. Exited BTC very early in the game and living happy without holding any crypto. Managed to dump all the DOGE i'd mined too when Elon hyped it the first time around and brought it up from being worthless. Got about $100 for the BTC I had and $5k for the DOGE, pretty good gains when the DOGE was sitting at like $80 value for many years before becoming Elons meme pump (at peak of his hype it would've been worth $60k to sell but whatever just wanted to exit while I could)

      Put all my investments into ETF these days, you can make a few hundred bucks here and there on dividends it's a pretty stable market. While it is true you can make money "investing" into crypto it's a purely speculative market and you may as well just go and hit the casino every weekend. It's definitely not something I would recommend anyone buy into, been talking people out of it for 10+ years now.

      People buy into it because they heard of the stories of the guys who made millions when it was a brand new 'hot thing' and get scammed into investing into new altcoins that hit the market promising the world or expecting to make big money just holding BTC for a few years, it's a ponzi scheme.

      When it was a fully unregulated asset it had some merit to it but now that the governments are involved and every exchange has to go through KYC it has lost a lot of its advantages as it's no longer anonymous and no longer tax free.

  • Fredfloresjr on 17/12/2024 - 09:57
    +2

    OP stay away from people in here who talks negative about the coin. They are the same people flexing their $20 monthly savings interest.

    Anyway, Bought the XRP years ago and took the profit to buy alt coins. I mean, JUICY profits. Mothers know best when she told me to invest years ago. She bought Bitcoin when it was around 25k Usd, she's planning to retire early next year at 53.

    • Purp on 17/12/2024 - 13:14
      +2

      I too come to ozbargain after making juicy profits on the crypto.

      • Agret on 19/12/2024 - 14:54

        Have to ride the waves of when McDonalds or Hungry Jacks has actually legit deals to be had.

  • OzzyOzbourne on 17/12/2024 - 10:32

    Personally I see it as a a 50/50 gamble. Whether it goes up or down is purely dependant on whether people are buying or selling huge amounts. You can win big or lose big

  • WilliamDGH on 17/12/2024 - 10:38
    +1

    I have about $13,000 in crypto currency, which was about $7,000 3 months ago. I will probably keep them and hope for them to go 10 times or 20 times in 10 or 20 years.

    I don't invest more, but I am happy to keep this amount. If they loss value then so be it, I can accept that. But I don't want to miss out if crypto currency does continue to grow in the rate it did in the last 10 years.

  • drfuzzy on 17/12/2024 - 11:38

    I did something similar and my balance has been a rollercoaster over 6 years. I'm currently up about 1500% but have had 70%+ drawdowns.

    This won't be possible once division 296 tax is passed due to tax payable on unrealised gains.

    • netjock on 17/12/2024 - 14:36

      This won't be possible once division 296 tax is passed due to tax payable on unrealised gains

      Only if you got more than $3m super balance. Nothing to say you can't sell assets to pay the tax.

      Taxing unrealised capital gains is stupid.

      • drfuzzy on 18/12/2024 - 11:07

        If you are regularly forced to pay tax on unrealised capital gains you need to control volatility.

        Bitcoin and alt coins are high to very high volatility.

    • nosey on 17/12/2024 - 19:12

      I thought they quietly ditched this planned div 296 tax recently? Source a friend tho rather than legit news.

      • drfuzzy on 18/12/2024 - 11:03
        +1

        It is still the government's policy but there is little chance of getting it passed before the next election.

  • surg3on on 17/12/2024 - 12:10

    Theres still no good use case for it so eventually the music will stop. The big question is, can you time it?

    • Protractor on 17/12/2024 - 14:34

      The Emperors New Clothes meets Musical Chairs, LOL.

    • netjock on 17/12/2024 - 14:37

      Tech billionaires in the US will call it time when they want to.

      Some of them missed out on the AI boom so crypto is their next adventure to make some money and be even more richer.

    • ProlapsedHeinous on 17/12/2024 - 19:01

      The music will only stop when governments stop debasing our currencies. Exactly…

  • Purp on 17/12/2024 - 13:05

    crypto is a scam, take the profits while you can or dont be surprised when you lose it all

    • Fredfloresjr on 17/12/2024 - 13:26
      -1

      As long as you don't buy the MEME coins you'll be fine. The only scam here is the ATO lol.

      • Purp on 17/12/2024 - 14:30

        I wouldn't buy any, but yeah ATO is a scam also.

  • trapper on 17/12/2024 - 13:21

    Bitcoin will exist until it doesn't.

    What I mean is that it is unlikely to slowly fizzle out, with the value trickling away gradually.

    There will be an inflection point where something like a bank run starts, with everyone trying to get out asap. A 'bank run' with no government to step in and guarantee anything.

    Could be a long way off though…

    • Protractor on 17/12/2024 - 14:33

      Hope not. Would like to witness the shit show myself. It'd be a bit like the monetary equivalent of the Sydney NYE fireworks. Seating limited.Get a good vantage point early.

      • trapper on 17/12/2024 - 14:56
        -1

        I will happen eventually, and when it does, it will be very quick.

      • Cluster on 17/12/2024 - 17:12
        +1

        I remember being online during the first MtGox price crash from $1k. It was fascinating to watch the market burn in real time.

        The key factor to bitcoin's value, and all crypto overall, is Tether. They've never had an audit, and just released 'trust me bro!' statements when anyone asked if they really have the bonds they claim to have. If Tether collapses the entire crypto market will implode within minutes as everyone runs to the closed exits at the same time, but I think it's relatively unlikely. Unless Tether does something really stupid they should be rolling around in billions of dollars of interest per year without risk.

        • welcomeUniverseWorld on 17/12/2024 - 17:16
          -2

          Tether is one of the largest holder of US Bonds. If tether gets in any trouble, US bonds will crash. Hence, Tether can not die. Hence, Blackrock has gone ahead and supported the crypto market, aka tether to save US bond market, aka the US economy. It is a circular weird logic.

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