Is It Wise to Bet on Bitcoin for The Long Term? My Super Fund Dilemma

I wanted to share something personal and hear your thoughts—no judgment, please! About a year ago, I decided to allocate a portion of my $175K super fund into Bitcoin through my SMSF. Fast forward to now, and that portion has appreciated significantly. The returns have been nothing short of juicy, and I can't help but wonder if this could be the path to financial freedom.

I still have about 15 years until retirement, which brings me to a big question: Should I hold onto this Bitcoin investment for the long haul?

If Bitcoin even comes close to repeating its performance from the past decade, I could be completely financially independent when I retire. That’s the dream, right? But the flip side is terrifying—if Bitcoin crashes and never recovers, I could lose that portion of my super fund.

Is this a calculated risk worth taking, or am I playing with fire by relying so heavily on Bitcoin?

I’m genuinely looking for perspectives. What would you do in my shoes?

Comments

          • @welcomeUniverseWorld: You seem to know a lot more than you should for the OP you wrote asking for input.
            So it's beginning to sound more like a promotion.

            "Tether can not die" Famous last words,right there

          • +1

            @welcomeUniverseWorld: If we take just US federal government bonds, Tether claims $140B in total assets right now. Outstanding federal debt is $36T, of which $26.5T is held by private entities (the rest is intergovernmental).

            $140B of $26.5T is 0.53%. If Tether suddenly collapses and is forced to liquidate all its assets, no one will really care.

            Blackrock doesn't care about bonds, crypto, or anything else. Blackrock is in it for itself and its clients. They'll support anything that makes money.

            All I can say is if Tether ever collapses, no bailouts. None. Everyone knows the risks, everyone accepts them. Don't come crying to taxpayers for even a cent of money.

    • Bank runs occur because banks only hold a set percentage of funds in liquid form. All BTC is liquid so there is no possibility of a bank run.

      Inflection points go two ways btw.

      • +3

        lol no possibility of a bank run - except every crypto exchange that folded for lack of funds 😂😂😂

      • something like a bank run

        There is no percentage of funds at all held in crypto - every single cent going to a seller has to come directly from a buyer.

    • those 'crashes' have happened many times, yet each time it's come back with ATH after ATH. it's a bit like the property buyers who are in denial and always waiting for the market to 'crash 50%' and over time they can only see themselves getting priced out further and further

  • +1

    Search in threads for Rektrading the user. Tell you all you need to know.

    I got a bit in Binance and also Blackrock Bitcoin ETF. I'm not going to sell it as an investment to anyone. More of a hedge if it does go to $35m. It is F U money.

    • +1

      A hedge is an investment that moves in the opposite direction of another investment, offsetting potential losses.

      You're not hedging, you're speculating. And if bitcoin went to $35m, that would mean around 10x the current supply of money in the world invested in bitcoin. Not happening lol.

      • -1

        around 10x the current supply of money in the world invested in bitcoin

        Don't think of it as "investment", but think of it, as fiat money is going to get 'pegged' to Gold and (sic) Digital Gold [BTC].

        The issue of BTC is whether it's quantum-resistant and also, it's only dependent on electricity, ie. a solar flare or an EMR weapon can disable the systems.

        • +3

          The issue of BTC is whether it's quantum-resistant

          Problem as it seems right now is that we're quantum resistant, as in we can't get it to work.

          solar flare or an EMR weapon can disable the systems

          If that happens you only have gold, silver, tinned food and whatever that is in season.

      • So what.

        It is just for shits and giggles.

  • Just Imagine I have this mentality way back 2012, and not wasted money with collecting Jordans and sneakers, I don't have to work now. O well, I am still so glad I jumped 5 years ago.

    • +2

      Don't feel bad. At least you didn't buy a pizza with 10k of them like old mate laszlo

  • Don't be like the Dogecoin millionaire. At least sell half.

  • +1

    How much Bitcoin ya got?

    That's the burning question everyone has but doesn't want to ask

    • I wonder if I can ever lose all in a boat accident. Khek

      • +1

        Well technically you'll be losing more than Bitcoin if that were to occur

    • That's the burning question everyone has but doesn't want to ask

      The burning question, is about all them little swimmers .

  • Ride your winners. Keep it unless you need to drawdown your overall position.
    Or if your thesis in bitcoin changes (maybe quantum computing breaks encryption).

  • +1

    It's a gamble. You bet as much as you are willing to lose, and keep expectations low.

  • The question and responses in the thread look like the OP has already made the investments but is having doubts, so needs people to back them up.

    Do what you want. It's your money. You could win big, or lose a fortune. I don't expect a cut of your winnings, but likewise don't come to taxpayers (me) for a bailout if things go wrong.

    • It takes a certain bit of mental and emotional and educational investment before one actually jumps and keeps bitcoin in own hardware cold wallet. I did that. And that too using my own smsf that was created just for this.
      So, yeh… I am heavily invested. However, doubts creeping in my head now that I am in this situation.

      • +1

        Do you mind explaining how you were able to use your SMSF to buy Bitcoin which you could transfer to your own hardware cold wallet? DM me if it's easier.

        • +3

          I have purchased cryptocurrency through my SMSF and wanted to share some details.

          First, please read this https://www.ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/super-for-in…)

          Steps to Get Started
          1. Engage a Legitimate Organization
            You’ll need to find a reputable organization in Australia to manage your tax and legal obligations. There are numerous requirements, and as a beginner, I found it better to delegate this work to experts.
          1. Set Up SMSF Accounts
            Once you engage a provider, they will help you set up everything, including:

            • A dedicated SMSF bank account.
            • An Australian cryptocurrency exchange account for SMSF transactions.
            • And many other things.

            Important things to remember:

            • Borrowing or leverage is not allowed under SMSF regulations.
            • You can purchase crypto assets and transfer them to your own hardware wallet (e.g., Ledger).
            • SMSF investments are for long-term holding, not day trading. frequent trading incurs significant tax implications.

          - There are other things. I remember top three in my head

          1. On-Chain Interaction and Stablecoins

            • You are allowed to interact with on-chain assets and purchase stablecoins (e.g., Tether) if you want to move away from volatile crypto holdings temporarily.
            • You can cash out stablecoins or crypto into Australian dollars via your SMSF exchange and transfer funds back to your SMSF bank account.

          2. Separation of Accounts

            • Keep your SMSF wallet separate from personal trading wallets.
            • Follow the principle: "Not your keys, not your coin." Store your private keys securely in multiple backup locations.

          3. Long-Term Strategy
            I have both a traditional SMSF through ING and my own SMSF for crypto, where I primarily hold Bitcoin, along with some Atom and Doge. My plan is to hold these long-term, with retirement at least 15 years away unless circumstances change dramatically.

          Risks to Consider

          Crypto carries significant risks, and the value of your portfolio can fluctuate rapidly. These swings can be stressful, but I have achieved better returns than my traditional SMSF so far.

          Final thoughts
          • Always store crypto in a hardware wallet for maximum security.
          • Never mix your SMSF wallet with personal trading activities.
          • Secure your passphrase and backups carefully.
          • Stay updated on regulations and pray the government does not ban crypto assets.

          This is not financial advice; do your research before making any decisions.

  • Hodl forever, literally can't go down

  • +2

    Bitcoin Owners 106 million
    Daily Bitcoin Users 400,000
    Bitcoin Wallets 200 million
    Bitcoin Traders 53 million
    Daily Bitcoin Transactions 270,000
    Americans that heard of Bitcoin 89%
    Americans that own Bitcoin 22%

    You are not alone. https://bitbo.io/how-many-users/

    Bitcoin Bull Theme: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYeDsa4Tw0c&ab_channel=Makmi…

    DCA is the best strategy so far.

  • +1

    Bank the profit and leave the original investment you were willing to risk in the first place.
    If it continues to grow, rinse and repeat.
    If it drops, you knew the risks.

  • Could someone explain how tax would come into this? Taxed if I cash out? No Tax?

    • Legally: Taxed.
      Illegally: Not declared, not taxed, until the ATO comes knocking.

    • cashing out is a taxable event. holding for longer than 12 months before cashing out entitles you to longterm CGT discount.

      Remember, swapping 1 token for another (say swapping bitcoin for eth) is also a taxable event.

  • Cash out. Rejoice in this win. Don't gamble your future further.

  • -1

    No one knows, but there are things you can do that are sensible and can make you feel better like selling half of it, so you can make sure your investment you made comes back and also you've gained some, the rest is truly a bit of an emotional gamble.

    Take note that it's like a rollercoaster to some extent, things go up things go down. Especially for cyrpto, it's like some hollywood celebrity, when juicy rumours surround it, it blows up. But you also can't discard the fact that governments come into play, they can do things that favour it, then they can suddenly overnight do something that makes completely useless or ban it.

  • -1

    No, it's to volatile for what it was meant to be used for i.e a currency. It's volatility is what makes it valuable as a commodity though so investors will sell if it ever stabilises which would then make it crash. Thus long term it has no inherent value.

  • Yeah, wouldn't tell anyone about it. I don't respond to many "crypto" / do you have crypto threads. I have under $1000, lol. The one problem is crypto creates "honeypots" of many loosely guarded computers. Guessing a lot would be windows machines. Crypto should be 1% of your investment portfolio. Main issue is whether reserve banks (centralized) give up their power. Don't think it will be easy. Is happening slowly though.

  • +2

    Buy the rumors, sell the news. Whenever bitcoin is in the news, its usually a good time to sell.

    If it drops back & stays flat for 6 months so it drops out of the news cycle, then is the time to buy & hold long.

    • Not yet. You need the laser eyes on X (formerly Twitter)

  • I would hold BTC for long term

  • +2

    Don’t sell. Don’t retire. HODL!

    • +1

      Don’t sell. Don’t retire

      LOL

  • -1

    Jerome Powell said it is basically digital gold, it’s likely it will continue to rise so I’d be staying in the position (not selling).

  • +1

    That's what AMP did with their super earlier this year:

    "The exposure, which currently represents around 0.05% of the total superannuation assets under management"

  • +1

    Yes. My mate is confident it will hit 1 million

    • Michael Saylor seems to think it will hit $35m BUT that would mean it is multiple of the stock market and US GDP. Imagine that LOL. It will be like game stop except crazier

      • Hes a twice convicted con man pumping his bags while selling his stock constantly

        • +1

          It is like people just want to vote with their stock buying which never ends well. That is why I don't buy microstrategy but nothing to say you can't profit from irrationalism.

          Need better gut microbes for these kind of things where people just buy stuff that is totally disconnected from reality.

  • There is actually no point having this post as you're going to get polarising answers. Some will say it's the way to go, and others will say that it's a big ponzi scheme. One thing for sure is that you shouldn't have more in it than you can afford to lose. If losing it all would cause you significant issues, then you probably shouldn't have it in there.

  • +1

    I never imagined this post of mine would blow up and spark such polarizing opinions from both sides. The thoughts, comments, and perspectives shared have given me plenty to think about. Thank you, everyone. I’m still hodling Bitcoin.

    • +2

      Good idea on hodling, you would've had a huge tax bill in July if you sold

  • -1

    I regret never getting around to putting a couple of thousands into digital currencies, just for the sake of experience. But none of that stuff is going to be anywhere near my super. I don't understand Bitcoin, it does not make any sense to me, it has absolutely nothing underpinning it but the mass hysteria. Even the Tulip Mania was a more reasonable affair.

    • -1

      don't understand Bitcoin

      you probably should have stopped there

    • Thank you for being so honest about this… so many comments here that are written with so much conviction, canning bitcoin and crypto is littered with key phrases and words which say "i don't understand it therefor it is ponzi"…

      If you can't understand or see the value of it… that doesn't mean it has no value… it just means the values and virtues it represents don't have value to you or you have not been able to understand the value it would offer to you (or society as a whole).

      This is totally fine as well… back in the day, there would have been plenty of people who would not have been able to see the value in having computers talk to each other or hell, even having an email address! To others who understood the underlying technology, and saw the value in it, they were able to look beyond the dotcom bubble hype and make money from the emerging technology.

      Warren buffet doesn't understand bitcoin, he's trashed it on multiple occasions, but every crypto person still looks up to him as an amazing investor and trader. He doesn't understand the technology or the place it could have in current and future society so he doesn't invest in it.

      Thats totally fine… if you don't know, you don't understand or, you understand but don't see the value… just say that. Don't shut people down and discourage them from seeking that value themselves by just saying "crypto bad, everyone lose money, ponzi scheme".

      • +2

        I appreciate your kind condescension. I am confident I have the mental capacity to understand most of the classical financial products and their derivatives. So I take my honest inability to make sense of Bitcoin as a warning sign. I also suspect that I am not much dumber or smarter than most people, so when Bitcoin enthusiasts make fun of me, I suspect that 99/100 of them have as much understanding as I do. Actually it's all I can see to Bitcoin - enthusiasts, condescending or belligerent.

        • +1

          Sorry if i came off as condescending… after reading my comment back through that lense I'll admit, it could be taken that way. I never meant to suggest that you were incapable of understanding it… My highlighting Warren Buffet and his views on it were actually meant to highlight the fact that it's value does not align with everybodies goals and circumstance regardless of financial literacy.

          If you don't ever have a need to remove your wealth from the centralised trust driven custody system we have then, it's gonna be pretty hard to sell you on the bitcoin value proposition. Warren Buffet will never have to worry about being debanked or denied access to his funds, he is part of the upper echelons of society where the rules we must play by don't apply. therefor, he can't see the value proposition, hence, a super smart guy, extremely financially literate won't buy bitcoin. I think he understands it…. but doesn't think it's intrinsic value serves him.

          you are right… there's a ton of people who are buying bitcoin who don't understand it… There's a ton of people who use the internet and have no idea how it works and who pays for it.

          When you get past the scams, pump and dump cons and get to the deeper more established crypto projects, you will find people who have no interest in making fun of those who don't understand crypto. One of it's core values is the hope that everybody can be an equal participant in a fair and equally accessible financial system and, the warren buffets and JP Morgans would have to play by the same rules as everyone else because they can't call up the bitcoin CEO and close their trades while everyone else is locked out.

          so again, i'm sorry if i came off as condescending, it wasn't my intention. I was genuinely grateful to see someone in the forum just come and and say "I don't understand it".

          I hope this doesn't further galvinise your sentiments towards this great technology. I honestly just want to see everybody do well in whatever investment engine they choose.

          • +1

            @mitchalbrown: I can't see Bitcoin as independent, fair and accessible. It fully depends on power and the Internet, and then has multiple layers of authentication and control. With any of those plugs pulled you have nothing. But in this regard it's not much worse than most, if not all, modern financial assets, everything is fully digitized and can be removed from anyone. It does not make a strong argument in Bitcoin's favour though.
            I am grateful for your write-up because it helped me to understand what is bothering me about Bitcoin. I am a materialist. I see wealth in material things, brick and mortar stuff. It does not need to be real estate, but most stocks represent massive amounts of real world assets and resources. Bitcoin represents absolutely nothing, even worse than nothing, it represents a gigantic waste, a black hole of wasted energy. It's destructively idealistic, driven by greed while not creating anything even remotely useful. You can say everything is driven by greed, but despite that traditional investing manages to build a lot of material wealth for the society at large: "Part of that power which still Produceth good, whilst ever scheming ill".

            • @ldq:

              It fully depends on power and the Internet, and then has multiple layers of authentication and control. With any of those plugs pulled you have nothing

              You have a global network of computers, where everyone has their "own skin" in the game, so the consensus is reached through this massive "co-operation" in witnessing the transactions itself.

              It's a giant human experiment in co-operation, which is challenging a 3,000 - 4,000 year system of resource-based currency, concentrated in the hands of a few,…and these controlling types, got blindsided by cryptocurrencies,…whilst trying to find ways to regain their control over it.

              The blockchain concept is already here to stay, and you will see different forms of "mining" or "minting" some other kind of currency (which itself will give rise to the whole 'humans-as-batteries' concept from "The Matrix"), because as we live more and more digital lives, we are actually tethering ourselves to the digital currency system itself.

              If/When everyone has a vested interest or is holding it, then it won't be in their interest to destroy what they perceive to have value.

              There are some risks though, eg. 51% attack, SHA- encryption getting breached, solar flares, massive internet outages, etc….

        • ironically you are the one being condescending here by making value judgements about an asset class you don't understand, dismissing it as mass hysteria. if it helps to make you feel better, all power to you

    • -3

      it has absolutely nothing underpinning it

      It has code. Code underpins it.

      What you're saying is like saying "absolutely nothing underpins Microsoft or Google"

      • That is a circular reference. Like saying that <religion> is underpinned by the text of the <holy_book>.
        MS or Google code supports a lot of day to day activities, allows to create and run stuff, it can be sold as products. It's tangible and material or has tangible and material outputs.
        I have admitted my own ignorance, but I am not aware of any material outputs of the Bitcoin code, the only other element in the equation is the flock of the believers.

        • +1

          Well, when you described google or Microsoft code you also described Bitcoin. The big difference is it's not owned by a single company.

          The material output would be the ledger, recording all transactions for 15 years 24/7 globally without a single second of downtime.

          There's never been a more robust system in operation.

          Having an immutable, reliable, trust less but trustworthy leger without any borders that literally anyone on the planet can use at any time is the material output. That's where the value comes from.

          • +1

            @Odin: how do we pin this comment??!?!?!

          • +1

            @Odin:

            Well, when you described google or Microsoft code you also described Bitcoin

            No.

            Can bitcoin help be search for an answer, does it generate revenue?

            Does it do Excel or act as a mail client?

            You might as well call it Tesla but you can't drive around in bitcoin.

            • @netjock:

              does it generate revenue?

              Yes, that's what the mining rewards are.

              Does it do Excel or act as a mail client?

              Yes, the equivalent is that it is a digital ledger and payment system.

              • @Odin: You know that is an obtuse way of bending the facts to fit the answer you want.

                Nice try.

                As someone who owns a little bit of bitcoin sometimes even I find the answers a bit far fetched.

                But if you tell a lie long enough people might forget the real facts and believe what you are saying to be true.

          • @Odin: A robust system of exactly what? What is the utility of that ledger? A traditional accounting ledger records/mirrors real world transactions, here we have a ledger for the sake of having a ledger, like a mirror facing a mirror.
            You revere it as a deity using circular logic, but to me it's of zero use and has no purpose.

            • @ldq: You're just ignoring everything said.

              here we have a ledger for the sake of having a ledger, like a mirror facing a mirror.

              I don't even know what this is supposed to mean.

              I already stated: It's an immutable, reliable, trust less but trustworthy leger without any borders that literally anyone on the planet can use at any time. It's a medium of exchange and a store of limitless value. It cannot be deflated.

              If you can't see the value in that… that's on you.

        • why compare orange with apple? or banana with chili? everything exists for a reason. ask god why he made banana??? lol

  • +2

    Crypto is worse than worthless. Enormous waste of energy and investment in a non-productive asset class.

    The vast majority of bitcoin owners don't know or even care about its unproven utility as an actual currency - they're FOMO speculators who think it will (or at least might) make them rich.

    Now that everyone's mum, grandma and dog hold bitcoin, I doubt we'll see prices rise much further. I expect institutional investors will pull the plug shortly and 'normie' speculators will be left holding the bag.

    If I had bigger balls I'd short the hell out of bitcoin with CFDs and profit off the likely crash. Instead, I'll revisit this comment in a year and see if it's aged like wine or milk lol.

    • +1

      thanks for the liquidity

    • Could just be a CIA construct to fund all their expeditions.

      Or Santosh is actually The Fed and when it gets high enough they'd sell it all and pay off the US national debt and leave everyone holding the bag.

      Left wing deep state conspiracy to fund transgender rights.

      Never seen so many believe a creator they don't know who it is. To me it is really for the giggles.

    • +1

      please do and keep us updated
      in a year's time the bear cycle most likely would have started, so it may pay off

    • Cryptocurrencies looks like it has been adopted as a temporary deflation trashpile, somewhere to dump useless dollarydoos to prevent hyperinflation while simultaneously printing more money to cover the debt payments.

      Somehow Tether keeps pumping,…or "minting" billions of dollars onto the blockchains, and keeping all the boats afloat.

      Tether mints an additional $3B in USDt stablecoins (24 NOV 2024)
      https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-mints-additional-3-bil…

      Where this boat is heading, neither crypto nor the dollarydoos would be "worth" nothing, until the 'brave new world' will need come to save us all.

  • Hodl

  • my 2c from having been in the money and tracking a few cycles of crypto:

    • If you're at the point where you're thinking 'take juicy profits' then do just that. The value of your SMSF may be high now but it's not locked into until you convert it to AUD (or something more stable).

    • HODL works if you do not have a time line and can wait until the next bull market. Crypto bear markets are very bleak and full of despair, that's why they're called winters.

    • Cash out now, dump it back into ETF/super fund, buy back into crypto in 2-3 years.

    • So you think we re entering bear market soon? I thot the bull is still going.

      • Bull is still going but who knows when it'll change? No one does, so why carry such risk if OP is already happy with the returns?

        OP has an opportunity to go from strength to strength right now. At least cash out half.

  • Depending on how profitable it has been for you, I'd take the profit of equal to your initial investment and leave the rest there for the long haul.

  • Im a noob when it comes to super but I thought there were only a few grounds in which you could withdraw super.

    Is this person saying they managed the super by allocating it to crypto? Not a withdrawal?

    • U can’t withdraw until u retire. It’s about allocating super to crypto through snsf.. Then whether to cash it back into normal super or hodl?

  • +2

    When you own Bitcoin or any large amount of wealth, your future prosperity depends little on actual hardwork which most people do for 2000 hours per year.

    Instead, your future lies upon 1 or 2 decisions each year, maybe less. Possibly once a decade if you are in BTC.

    So I would suggest spending at least 100 hours researching it. Basically make it your full time job.

    I would be leaving it as BTC forever and drawing on it when it's time. There is a point where you realise there is no exit from BTC because it is the exit.

  • I would tell you to really learn and understand what the technology is and then make your decisions. I used to be against Bitcoin no more than a year ago but am now completely all in. Goes up great, goes down awesome this is when you know.

  • I dont like the idea of leaving it in for many years. Bitcoin follows a cycle. Whilst its hard to pick the exact top and bottom, you can get close enough to be worthwhile. For example, bitcoin spent a lot of time under $US30K between June 2022 and Oct 2023. Buying in anytime then would have been fine.
    Its now near $US100K. Maybe 100K is the top or maybe it still has some growth yet. Either way you'd have tripled your investment. As others have said, sell half and let half ride a bit longer. Once sold, buy back in during the next bear market.

    Also remember the Australian 12 month 50% CGT discount. ie; worth keeping any asset for at least 12 months.

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