Is It Wise to Bet on Bitcoin for The Long Term? My Super Fund Dilemma

welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 15:43

I wanted to share something personal and hear your thoughts—no judgment, please! About a year ago, I decided to allocate a portion of my $175K super fund into Bitcoin through my SMSF. Fast forward to now, and that portion has appreciated significantly. The returns have been nothing short of juicy, and I can't help but wonder if this could be the path to financial freedom.

I still have about 15 years until retirement, which brings me to a big question: Should I hold onto this Bitcoin investment for the long haul?

If Bitcoin even comes close to repeating its performance from the past decade, I could be completely financially independent when I retire. That’s the dream, right? But the flip side is terrifying—if Bitcoin crashes and never recovers, I could lose that portion of my super fund.

Is this a calculated risk worth taking, or am I playing with fire by relying so heavily on Bitcoin?

I’m genuinely looking for perspectives. What would you do in my shoes?

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

  • John Kimble on 15/12/2024 - 15:51
    +34

    Sell half?

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 15:52
      +3

      Yeah.. Thinking of that as well. Thanks. Maybe sell half bring back to my normal super that I have with INGDirect.

      • soan papdi on 15/12/2024 - 21:11
        +10

        normal super that I have with INGDirect.

        You might save on fees with industry funds like Australian Super or Host Plus.

        • Brianqpr on 17/12/2024 - 16:20

          Not much difference fee wise these days between a lot of retail super funds and the industry funds.

          • Agret on 19/12/2024 - 14:18

            @Brianqpr: Biggest thing the retail funds get you with is the automatic opt-in for income protection, life insurance and a few other random products they tack on without asking you about. If you cancel all of those the fees are massively reduced.

            • Brianqpr on 02/01/2025 - 12:49

              @Agret: Insurance is not a fund fee, it is an option. Insurance is also not cheaper with industry funds as they all use the same few insurers as the retail funds.

              It does pay to pay close attention to insurance costs as these can increase rapidly as you get older, especially if the cover itself is indexed each year.

      • Franc-T on 18/12/2024 - 19:19
        +3

        '….Is It Wise to Bet on Bitcoin for The Long Term? My Super Fund Dilemma..'

        Bet & Super yeah because you ahve been lucky so far doesnt mean you will continue to be and theres no way you can knwo the value in future. Since this is your future security and you have 15 years retirement, now is the time to make sure you havent got risky investiments not bet it all.

      • Agret on 19/12/2024 - 14:19

        Sell half of your held BTC, put it all on Red at the roulette table. See how you go.

    • Nickels n Dimes on 16/12/2024 - 22:00
      -1

      Don't put all of your eggs in one basket.

      However, it looks promising in the short-medium term:
      https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/12/15/bitcoin-forecast-2…

      • serpserpserp on 17/12/2024 - 21:27
        +3

        Don't put all of your eggs in one basket.

        Yes. Also buy Dogecoin

      • furyou on 18/12/2024 - 22:55
        +3

        I feel foolish following advice from fool.com

    • randomvis on 17/12/2024 - 12:13
      +1

      More like, sell all, and pile all-in at the halving.

      But keep in mind the market cap for
      - BTC is ~$2 trillion,
      - Silver is ~$1.9 T
      - Gold is ~$17 T
      - Global housing is $500 T

      So the question is where will it stop, and could it ever exceed gold as a new inflation hedge. I'd pile in up until CBDC's get introduced, then I reckon central banks wouldn't want competitors.

    • frewer on 17/12/2024 - 12:18
      +1

      ^This, or 60%, 80%. There's the saying, "No one ever gets poorer by taking some profit."

    • bethepro on 17/12/2024 - 14:36

      I agree with this. Hedge your bets. You have done extremely well OP. Play the game smart and put your eggs in the different baskets.

  • Buwwy on 15/12/2024 - 15:53
    +8

    Congrats. I think it's hard to predict. And it depends on your risk tolerance. For me, I'd probably sell majority and keep a small parcel in the event it does continue to rise over the years.

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 15:54

      Thanks

    • prozerran on 19/12/2024 - 10:27

      As the OP said the key word is 'BET'. No one knows whether it goes up or down or his risk status. Bottom line are you willing to loose all of it for potential riches. It may never recover over 15 years. There is no tangible assests assigned like a real life company.

      Its a gamble

  • Jimothy Wongingtons on 15/12/2024 - 15:55
    +10

    Where’s the vote for double down?

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 15:58
      +3

      Do you mean commit more into Bitcoin? Wow.. I do not know mate. I have a portion in my normal super with ING and rest as SMSF holding Bitcoin. Commit more… I donot know. I need to sleep as well.

      • thisusernameistaken on 20/12/2024 - 15:00

        Jimothy's comments on OzBargain are mostly humour so don't take this one as a sign to increase your BTC holdings… besides if doubling your amount will make you lose sleep, that's a good sign you are over exposed already

    • Aureus on 15/12/2024 - 19:47

      It literally can't go tits up

      • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 15:04
        +1

        What makes you say that?

        I can't think of anything more vulnerable…. but then I haven't had a chat with Elon to totally change my attitude.

        • Aureus on 16/12/2024 - 15:22
          +12

          I was attempting sarcasm. I wouldn't actually recommend gambling your super.

          • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 15:27
            +1

            @Aureus: oh lol I'm a shocker for missing sarcasm :)

      • nobro25 on 17/12/2024 - 11:06
        +1

        Bitcoin proceeds to go to $1,000,000 per coin.

        • Aureus on 17/12/2024 - 12:09

          Anything is possible. It would be 22 trillion market cap assuming no more coins are minted between now and then.

      • WoodYouLikeSomeCash on 18/12/2024 - 14:39
        +1

        Wait until he hears about leveraged options trading…

  • apsilon on 15/12/2024 - 16:01
    +72

    I'm probably going to get down voted for this but bitcoin is a purely speculative investment. It could go either way and is really no different than if you went and played roulette. It's supposed to be a currency and the tech is there to do that but as it stands it's volatility makes it worthless as a currency so really what's the point of it other than speculative gambling?

    I'd sell a portion and take your initial investment and some profit and continue to gamble the rest if you're in a position to do so.

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 16:07
      +2

      I upvoted your response. Thank you for sharing your perspective. Hearing multiple views is essential for me at this point. When I initially made the purchase, it was more of an impulsive decision. Now that it has grown significantly (in my eyes), I find myself reconsidering my approach.

      • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 15:11
        +3

        What has changed?
        It hasn't succeeded as a currency. Has it failed, or do you think it could still get there? Is it going to find some other use?

        What people are willing to pay for it today has no bearing on it's worth as an investment.
        What if Elon had listened to Trump instead of visa versa?

        Remember the tulips.

    • jetblack on 16/12/2024 - 08:18
      +4

      speculative gambling

      Entirely my view.

      It is a solution looking for a problem. I've seen some interesting proposals for how crypto could change certain industries, and all have fizzled out in terms of their usefulness. They wind up becoming yet another 'speculative investment' vehicle.

      Its like to make gains you have to HODL but I'm convinced that this won't last forever, so youre going to have to be smart enough to quit while you're ahead and be at peace with missing out on some (potential) incredible returns, or hold on indefinitely and be stuck holding the bag of worthless bits and bytes.

    • Zephyrus on 17/12/2024 - 13:18
      +1

      The tech isn't there to make Bitcoin a currency for most transactions. Payment fees are very high and it's not very fast but costs in the $3 USD range and transaction times a bit over an hour, there's no way to make Bitcoin a currency for day to day use.

      It's 100% speculative, maybe another crypto currency comes in and gets used, but it'd likely be something with a government backing it.

      • vicerum on 19/12/2024 - 17:04
        -1

        I guess it's all a matter of perspective.
        $3 USD fee to pay for your morning cup of coffee? Expensive.
        $3 USD fee to send half a million dollars to the other side of the world in 10 minutes? Cheap as chips.

        • SlickMick on 19/12/2024 - 17:11

          send half a million dollars to the other side of the world in 10 minutes

          Do you call that a day to day transaction? Yes, for those that it is, they would love for Bitcoin to remain a viable option.

      • Chandler on 19/12/2024 - 18:03

        Payment fees are very high and it's not very fast but costs in the $3 USD range and transaction times a bit over an hour, there's no way to make Bitcoin a currency for day to day use.

        Lightning is a potential method of correcting this.

        Note: not really knowledgeable on the BTC stuff, just enough to mention things here and there!

    • neonlight on 17/12/2024 - 17:56
      +1

      Quantum computing will crack Bitcoin, you may keep it until that happens

      • welcomeUniverseWorld on 17/12/2024 - 18:03

        Isn't Quantum computing just a hype/fad?

      • Given on 17/12/2024 - 18:22
        +1

        Already mitigated.

        'Bitcoin already has some built-in quantum resistance. If you only use Bitcoin addresses one time, which has always been the recommended practice, then your ECDSA public key is only ever revealed at the one time that you spend bitcoins sent to each address. A quantum computer would need to be able to break your key in the short time between when your transaction is first sent and when it gets into a block…'

        https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin

        • neonlight on 17/12/2024 - 20:20

          Until SHA-256 can be cracked I guess. all the bitcoin holders right now mitigating and doing quantum resistance knowing that it's coming trying to not let it happen and already put measures against. Only time will tell. We have Google Willow quantum CPU out for us already

          • welcomeUniverseWorld on 18/12/2024 - 00:04

            @neonlight: I didn’t understand half of what you guys said. I just got the vibe that this quantum thing is not something to worry for my smsf. Correct me if I am completely not understanding

    • Franc-T on 18/12/2024 - 02:57
      +1

      100% agree with you here.

    • Agret on 19/12/2024 - 14:24

      BTC is not very good as a transactional currency, the network fees are way too high for using it for everyday transactions. Thus there is a lot of 'alternative' coins that just base their value from the value of BTC and these other coins are more suited to everyday transactions with faster processing and massively lower network fees. BTC is kind of the gold standard that holds up the value of these other coins, unless you are looking at a coin like USDT which is based off the value of the USD

      USDT's unique feature is the fact that its value is guaranteed by Tether to remain pegged to the U.S. dollar. According to Tether, whenever it issues new USDT tokens, it allocates the same amount of USD to its reserves, thus ensuring that USDT is fully backed by cash and cash equivalents.

      You could diversify the crypto portfolio by trading some of your BTC for altcoins that use different valuation basis although I guess their growth will be a lot lower than BTC. Maybe put the half you want to sell into the ETF "high risk" investment products provided by your super as they are still safer than BTC longterm.

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 16:33

      I hope I can work for another ~15years. Hence, it is a long way from retirement.

      • tomlikesbeetroot on 17/12/2024 - 12:18

        15 years isn't exactly long from retirement in investment terms.
        Its really getting close to the point where you start considering winding back from the more aggressive investment strategies.

  • pegaxs on 15/12/2024 - 16:37
    +12

    Make the most of it until Jan 6. After that Cheeto dust covered orangutan gets into office and start cutting people off, shipping workers "back home" and basically destroying workers rights and increasing prices for everything with tariffs to feed all the backhanded deals he made with the oligarchs, people are going to be shitting themselves.

    Im predicting that bitcoin is going to take a nose dive as people panic and want their "cash" back again because their local food and petrol companies are not going to be accepting "bitcoin" as a form of payment.

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 16:58
      +7

      "Cheeto dust covered orangutan" haha. That is awesome, mate

      • agravier on 19/12/2024 - 00:51

        I'd rather we didn't insult orangutan. They're really lovely creatures.

        • Agret on 19/12/2024 - 14:25

          Just don't call them apes or offer them a banana.

    • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 15:18
      +6

      I dunno. WIth him pushing it, I think might go gangbusters for a little while. From the way Trump's talking, I think it's the USD that's going to tank.
      I've already told my wife to make preparations from a trip to the US if the AUD hits parity again.

      • ripesashimi on 17/12/2024 - 10:46
        +1

        We have enough data now dont we. Has the USD tanked at all during the past 20 years regardless of covid and a bunch of wars?

        You need a bigger event than all of that to make a dent on the USD.

        • trapper on 17/12/2024 - 13:06
          +5

          Has the USD tanked at all during the past 20 years regardless of covid and a bunch of wars

          USD buying power has dropped 40% since 2004

        • SlickMick on 18/12/2024 - 10:33

          lol

      • trapper on 17/12/2024 - 13:03
        +2

        I think it's the USD that's going to tank.

        Bingo.

      • Binchicken22 on 19/12/2024 - 11:20

        Lol if anything it's going the other way. The AUD is heading for 50c, enjoy.

        • SlickMick on 19/12/2024 - 11:36

          The only way I'd enjoy that is if I was an exporter. But whatever, time will tell. I haven't purchased flights yet, if it happens, it happens. No one expected parity last time but it happened.

    • gutwagon on 18/12/2024 - 11:44
      +1

      Trump takes over on Jan 20 not the 6th. So I would be weary of taking any advise from you.
      My opinion is that bitcoin will continue to stay high or go higher while the Republicans are in power. I would hold until it looks like the Democrats may get back in. Then sell it all.
      I would go with how you feel after all you made the right call to get this win so stick with your gut .

      • yilli on 18/12/2024 - 19:27
        -1

        Bitcoin has gone to the moon under Biden. Your offered opinion is pure speculation. Hold harder with Democrat prospects.

        • quanticism on 19/12/2024 - 09:35
          +2

          Marc Andreessen and Brian Armstrong says otherwise. The democrats tried to kill crypto. Turned out it was a dumb move.

        • gutwagon on 19/12/2024 - 10:28
          +1

          It took off when Trump won the election. Yes it also went up under Biden but the latest rise was due to the election result.

          • SlickMick on 19/12/2024 - 11:41

            @gutwagon: That's only because of his new bromance. But what if they have a falling out? Has he actually been convinced to change his mind on cryto, or just doing going along for the sake of the relationship?

          • xordis on 20/12/2024 - 13:06

            @gutwagon: It took off when President Unelect Elon won the election

      • El cheepo on 19/12/2024 - 02:01

        I would be weary of taking any advise from you.

        Ooof.

        @MS Paint

  • GordonD on 15/12/2024 - 16:42
    +6

    A pyramid scheme can be profitable in the short term.

    It can't be profitable in the long term. It is impossible for anything to keep increasing exponentially forever.

    The trick is knowing when to get off. If you hold onto it past the point you can persuade someone to buy it off you, its worth nothing, because it has no inherent value.

    • Ade99 on 16/12/2024 - 13:09
      +2

      Sir Issac Newton (who I consider reasonably smart) tried to play this game. He ended up flat broke when he died…..

    • CatalystX on 16/12/2024 - 20:07
      -3

      lol typical low iq comment. Btc has been running for 15 years. what time frame are you expecting for it to not be considered short term.

      • mrvaluepack on 17/12/2024 - 16:36
        +6

        Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme operated for about 17 years, from the early 1990s until December 2008, when he was arrested. However, some investigations suggest it might have started as early as the 1980s. The scheme collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis when many investors tried to withdraw their funds, exposing Madoff's inability to pay them.

        • CatalystX on 17/12/2024 - 19:53
          -3

          My question wasn't answered but thanks for the info!

      • GordonD on 17/12/2024 - 20:49
        +2

        lol typical low iq comment

        Yes, that's exactly the psychology used to sell pyramid schemes. By persuading people who are merely greedy, who want something for nothing, that they are the smart ones if they get in on it. That there's an infinite supply of suckers who'll be happy to buy whatever it is off them when they made their fortune. And the dumb people are the ones that don't.

        Then inevitably, one day there's more people who want to sell than want to buy, for whatever reason, and the whole scheme collapses. And right up to that day the greedy people do look smart.

        The good thing about bitcoin is that it attracts the greedy people's money, so they don't use it to speculate up the price of things that other people need.

        • CatalystX on 17/12/2024 - 21:05

          I've dealt with the same argument for the past 14 years, so I'm used to it. With your logic, EVERYTHING is a ponzi scheme. The housing market in Australia is the biggest ponzi scheme in our existence which is heavily subsidised by the government but not a single person bats on eye because "there is passive income" and everyone on ozbargain probably owns property. You guys have been shitting on BTC for this long and continuously miss the train lmao. The reason why I said "low IQ comment" is because you struggle to think outside of your own perception by labelling it as a "pyramid scheme". Have you not heard of the Australian dollar or the US dollar? Those are the biggest pyramid schemes, but people like you are quick to label something a 'pyramid scheme' when It's doesn't fit your idea of what a currency is supposed to be. At least BTC is backed by something. And the Dollar is backed by what? The US government? Who are basically bankrupt and are in 36 trillion dollars in debt with no way of paying it back? Ok mate.

          Not trying to insult you here, but when you make an point, try to back it with some sort of information that goes with it. Simply labelling bitcoin as a pyramid scheme but ignoring the fact that the housing market and fiat currencies are much bigger pyramid schemes doesn't make your argument strong. You're point would be valid if other financial assets weren't pyramid schemes but they sadly are.

          • GordonD on 18/12/2024 - 10:25
            +4

            @CatalystX:

            Not trying to insult you here

            That's exactly what you did do with your low IQ comment. Casting aspersions at other peoples IQs is what people do who are convinced their IQ is a lot higher than it really is.

            As Euripides said, talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.

            • nomoneynoproblems on 18/12/2024 - 19:28
              +1

              @GordonD: Yea but he’s not wrong though. Our housing market is the biggest pyramid scheme in the country with something worth trillions of dollars. Btc market cap is no where near that.

              • BlaCkAdDaIX on 19/12/2024 - 09:09

                @nomoneynoproblems: Yes but there's 20 million or so people who all need a roof over their head.
                No one 'needs' bitcoin

            • CatalystX on 18/12/2024 - 19:42
              -1

              @GordonD: Ok fair enough maybe the insult wasn't necessary. But notice how you couldn't argue against what I said. Out of everything I said in those two paragraphs, you point out the one thing that hurt your feelings? Refute the point I make instead of crying about what some guy said to you on the internet and we can come to an understanding. But I guess you'll let your pride get the best of you.

            • CatalystX on 18/12/2024 - 19:46
              -1

              @GordonD: and I refuted everything you said. What "sense" here are you actually talking. Quoting random Greek tragedians doesn't make you seem wiser when you fail to make an actual point with any backing

              • GrueHunter on 20/12/2024 - 20:48

                @CatalystX: Look at you pretending there's anything anyone can say that would ever dissuade you from your faith in magic imaginary beans.

                I remember you all in November 2021 - "To the moon! Diamond hands! HODL!" And then the arse fell out of it - something you all claimed could never, ever, ever happen, because it's magic money, remember, it's not affected by the market's perceptions of risk because reasons.

                And here we are again. It's up. It's not up by much if you bought in November 2021, but it's up. (It's also up for the exact opposite reason you fanatics reckon it's magic, which is f'ing government intervention, which is odd for something that's supposed to be immune to government intervention, but let's not facts get in the way of a good delusion.)

                Except it could be down again tomorrow, like anything else. Shit, it fell around 10% today. It could also double overnight. Who knows? Not you. Whatever happens, you don't have the faintest idea about it in advance. If anybody did they'd have waited until after the late 2021 crash, bought then, and dumped last week. Did you do that? Of course you didn't. You just bought some at a point in time and now it's just blind faith.

                That, and probably your whole personality, because you come across as that "No I Won't F'ing Shut Up About Crypto No Fight Me Bro You Can't Even" guy

                • May4th on 20/12/2024 - 23:53

                  @GrueHunter: wow that's a lot of pent up angst. sounds like someone's salty they missed out

    • Fredfloresjr on 17/12/2024 - 09:59
      +2

      Nice try GordonD. Hahahah

      15 years and still a scheme, Makes sense.

      • greatlamp on 17/12/2024 - 11:27
        +1

        How does 15 years or 50 years make a difference? It is clearly not a store of value and it is not a feasible medium of exchange. It doesn't have fundamental value.

        Things can have value without having any fundamentals underpinning. Why is a piece of art worth $50 million?

        Bitcoin will continue to increase because it has a fixed qty while demand continues to increase. As long as that demand remains it will have value, in the same way that fiat currency has value.

        It's a small market subject to manipulation, it's not digital gold, it's digital silver.

      • mrvaluepack on 17/12/2024 - 16:36

        Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme operated for about 17 years, from the early 1990s until December 2008, when he was arrested. However, some investigations suggest it might have started as early as the 1980s. The scheme collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis when many investors tried to withdraw their funds, exposing Madoff's inability to pay them.

  • MS Paint on 15/12/2024 - 16:43
    +3

    Sell it and acquire as many flybuy accounts as you can with the funds.

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 16:59
      +2

      flybuy accounts can not be purchased. Sir.. you are in the wrong place

    • JIMB0 on 15/12/2024 - 17:24
      -1

      Don't forget to organise them so as not to hold up the que when checking out.

      • timthetoolman on 15/12/2024 - 17:31

        It's actually 'queue'. You forgot the other two redundant letters in the spelling of that word.

        • JIMB0 on 15/12/2024 - 17:53
          +6

          And to think this whole time I've been saying 'far que' when I should have been saying 'far queue'. Thank queue for setting me straight.

  • 87percent on 15/12/2024 - 16:48
    -1

    I’d sell the money and put it into hand sanitizer.. it’s due for a boom

    • Agret on 19/12/2024 - 14:28

      Got the basement full of investment toilet paper, let's sell big.

  • sumyungguy on 15/12/2024 - 16:49
    +2

    Unless you're intentionally hiding your overall position, your age-adjusted super balance appears low. If in your shoes I'd seek expert advice if you haven't already?

    • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 17:01

      I was intentionally hiding my overall position.

      According to ASFA's 2023 Retirement Standard average super balance for 40–44: $101,300. My balance is significantly above that due to the appreciation from Bitcoin SMSF fund. However, I am worried.. tbf

      • sumyungguy on 15/12/2024 - 17:04
        +1

        Using ART's figures, you should have $213K at age 45. I'm concerned about your fee overhead having both retail & SMSF with low balances…

        • Jimothy Wongingtons on 15/12/2024 - 17:12
          +11

          you should have $213K at age 45.

          Me: sweating profusely

          • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 17:16
            +3

            @Jimothy Wongingtons: I was also sweating to be honest a year back. However, I would not recommend anyone into Bitcoin. It will give you stomach ache

          • furyou on 18/12/2024 - 22:58

            @Jimothy Wongingtons: methinks if you have $213K super you're making the kinda dough where you prolly don't need super…

        • welcomeUniverseWorld on 15/12/2024 - 17:15
          +2

          Yeah. That is also a concern.. the fees.
          There is a significant fee to maintain SMSF. I might close the SMSF to be honest by mid of next year…

          • SlickMick on 16/12/2024 - 17:15
            +1

            @welcomeUniverseWorld: How are you managing SMSF? It should be more encomically and increasingly so because the costs are fixed rather than a % of balance.

      • Ade99 on 16/12/2024 - 13:12
        +1

        as your funds are in a speculative pyramid scheme, then until you lock in any potential gain (or loss) it is all hot air…….

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