High Possibilities of Australia Going to a Financial Crisis and AUD/USD down to $0.50 USD

babablack on 03/05/2019 - 12:11
Last edited 03/05/2019 - 13:12 by 1 other user

Hi

I have done a lot of research around our economy and have consulted professionals in technical analysis. since 2017 they were all telling me Australia is doomed to have a housing crisis and also loosing a lot on its AUD value.

Its very much possible AUD goes down to 50cents USD so almost like $2 AUD = $1 USD. Charts are NOT lying. it doesnt matter how many times media or government tries to say everything looks ok.

I am very afraid my self for the next couple of years and for sure cost of living goes up a lot when our AUD value goes down so much. right now AUD/USD=0.699. It had the $0.7 support line for a long time but its likely to break.

just wanted to share my opinion here. anyones welcome to debate it.

General Discussion

Comments

            • netjock on 05/05/2019 - 15:17
              -3

              @this is us: It also seems everyone confuses serious and sarcasm. I'm -2 and sarcasm is +2 therefore people are either really living in a bubble that doesn't want to be popped or they are taking sarcasm as real serious advice.

              • brendanm on 05/05/2019 - 16:15
                +2

                @netjock: It's a joke champ

              • gromit on 05/05/2019 - 17:35
                +1

                @netjock: Its a joke, adding an attempt at being serious doesn't add anything, apart from humour at your expense for missing the joke.

                • netjock on 06/05/2019 - 10:49
                  -2

                  @gromit: That expense I can afford. Most people can't afford real expenses because they don't listen.

      • brendanm on 05/05/2019 - 10:46
        +1

        Whooossshhh

        • netjock on 05/05/2019 - 15:18
          -2

          Exactly having worked in 4 global banks and basically can retire after 10 years before I am 40. The butt of all jokes on my fellow Australians.

          • netjock on 06/05/2019 - 10:48
            -1

            @netjock: -1 I like. Give me another -1

          • [Deactivated] on 06/05/2019 - 11:26

            @netjock: I know you, you’re the chick who served me at the Commonwealth last month. No one can count $20 bills like you can.

            • netjock on 06/05/2019 - 11:46
              -1

              @[Deactivated]: $20s. You can get those out of an ATM. Just shows how backward you are.

            • netjock on 06/05/2019 - 11:46
              -1

              @[Deactivated]: Btw CBA isn't a global bank.

              • Devils Advocate on 06/05/2019 - 22:45
                +1

                @netjock: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_Bank

                Mate, quit while you’re behind.

                • netjock on 07/05/2019 - 10:07
                  -1

                  @Devils Advocate: You believe in Wikipedia? CBA compared to say HSBC, Barclays, Credit Suisse, UBS or Deutsche Bank? You either haven't traveled or don't take notice.

                  If you believe that then I guess Aussie Post is a global Postal service competing with the likes of UPS, FedEx and DHL?

                  • Baysew on 07/05/2019 - 19:17
                    +1

                    @netjock: Biggest Global Banks

                    Btw CBA isn't a global bank

                    Your claim that CBA isn't a global bank appears incorrect. Not really relevant if some global banks are bigger or smaller, CBA still classed as a global bank.

                    • netjock on 07/05/2019 - 20:27
                      -1

                      @Baysew: You do realise the list is by assets. Doesn't mean you are a global bank. It is like never leaving Australia and being on the global rich list.

                      Global bank is like HSBC which has branches in like 80 countries or citibank. Once you leave Australia and New Zealand you'd be lucky to find any of our banks. I don't see anyone coming to work at CBA, ANZ, WBC or NAB because it is SO world class or global reach.

                      None of Australian banks are in the global systematically important banks.

                      Just like Melbourne university is within the top 50 ranking of global universities doesn't mean it has global reach.

                        • netjock on 08/05/2019 - 18:35
                          -1

                          @Baysew: I have a company in the UK. Doesn't make me a global organisation. I can open up 5 shelf companies in an hour and call myself global?

                          Click on your link:

                          London office
                          60 Ludgate Hill
                          London EC4M 7AW

                          Keep in mind, the London Office doesn't provide over-the-counter banking facilities for visiting Australians. If you'd like to speak with someone regarding a general account enquiry, call any of the following 24/7 numbers:

                          Card Enquiries – 0800 892 084 (Toll free from UK landline)
                          Phone/ Net Banking – 0061 132 221 (International call charges apply)
                          Direct Banking – 0061 2 9999 3283 (Charges may apply)

                          Sounds like a front to me… so what exactly do they do there?

                          The New York branch of the Commonwealth Bank was established in 1977. The branch has dedicated infrastructure and utilities, and natural resources teams to develop capital solutions that suit clients’ needs. The branch also offers a range of global market services including foreign exchange, interest rate derivatives, commodities, fixed income products, money market services and private placements.

                          For your reference is it global for the little guy or just the big guy? Arguing about CBA being a global bank that you can't use when abroad. Clap clap.

                          • Baysew on 08/05/2019 - 19:13

                            @netjock: You can open as many companies as you like, but it doesn't change the fact that CBA is a Gobal Bank does it?

                            • netjock on 08/05/2019 - 19:31
                              -1

                              @Baysew: LOL a fact. Well it is an assertion based on many unuseable assumptions.

                              a) It is a global bank because it is on a list of global banks ranked by assets (what it really means is take it all the banks that exist in the world here is the list)

                              b) Wikipedia definitions: we know is free to edit by non experts

                              c) BusinessDictionary.com which is definitions defined by whom? Click on the "about us" seems to take you to a page that doesn't load

                              d) The CBA themselves which as you can see has offices which doesn't take retail customers or have limited service

                              Seriously? You still want to take another bite at this old bone? Do your research doesn't mean just Google it. Having working in London and New York nobody left a global bank to work at the CBA (or NAB, ANZ, WBC for that matter).

  • Charybdia on 04/05/2019 - 16:42
    +5

    Call the police and let them know about the impending crisis/doom. They will have a stern word with the economy and that should avert the crisis.

    • smartazz104 on 05/05/2019 - 17:20
      +1

      Nah too much paperwork.

  • neosin on 04/05/2019 - 17:06
    +10

    LoL

    House prices too high, people complain = housing crisis

    House prices fall, people complain = housing crisis

    Society as a whole is a joke nowdays, people will never be happy 🤦‍♂️

    • [Deactivated] on 05/05/2019 - 08:24
      -3

      I'm happy, I have 12 properties in Sydney north shore and people renting them, unless they want to live on the streets.

      Not planning on selling them so don't care about house prices up or down.

      The rents keep coming, making me richer day by day.

      • Stimps on 05/05/2019 - 21:13
        +5

        With Sydney property down 11 percent in the last 12 months I’d say your getting poorer day by day.

    • outlander on 06/05/2019 - 10:54

      You know society is made up of more than one person, right?

      There's no chap called Society that just whines and moans all day that we, for some reason, need to keep happy.
      My apologies if you got confused.

  • mrvaluepack on 04/05/2019 - 18:10

    If you are relying on "professionals in technical analysis" for financial advice then why don't you look at zodiac symbols or astrology to predict the future as well. They are about as effective as the octopus who predicted the world cup results.

  • dbui8743 on 04/05/2019 - 18:50

    don't go scaring people like this, if anyone has been scared.

    Aussie has crossed that supposedly support line of 0.7 in January and quickly jumped back, it think it was the onset of the trade war breaking out between us and china or the Brexit falling out. So many things going on at the moment, hard to keep track lol.

    That is to say most of the times its over reaction from trading desks and a lot of algo reacting to the tiniest amount of info, hopefully.

  • mousie on 04/05/2019 - 19:50

    How much profit would a domino's franchisee make of a $5 pizza if this happens, if currently they make 20c?

    • ihbh on 05/05/2019 - 08:34
      +1

      Probably more. Most ingredients aussie so unaffected by fall in AUD. Crisis means more poor people, so instead of eating out at restaurants, they takeout at Dominos.

      Or it's so bad, people only eat out at soup kitchens, but then many other businesses will be screwed.

      • Ti-au on 05/05/2019 - 17:09

        The cheese is made in USA?, so eat into more margin.

        • ihbh on 05/05/2019 - 17:14

          Sorry, yes, just saw the bit about the cheese.

          • Gaz1 on 08/05/2019 - 14:54

            @ihbh: It depends on who cuts the cheese….

    • shadowangel on 06/05/2019 - 22:54

      same thing for most companys we wait for the suppliers to pass on the cost and make less.
      all the products i sell are aussie made but we still import materials as there is no suppliers in australia.

  • hooyn on 04/05/2019 - 20:31

    is it trumps fault?

    • MessyG on 04/05/2019 - 21:52

      It's always Trump, Hilary or Obama but NEVER Dubya's fault 😂

      • [Deactivated] on 14/05/2019 - 22:55

        Cheeky emoji aside, you are alluding to the GFC.

        Trickle-down economics does work, but at parlously slow rate. Low and lower-middle incomes last to receive proper benefit from it. Too many of those not receiving sufficient by end of Obama Administration, a significant contributing factor to the election of Trump.

        Seeds of GFC actually in Bill Clinton's term as President. Admired level of personal home-ownership achieved in UK under Margaret Thatcher; threatened U.S. banks and other lenders with more regulation / incentivised with offers of less, in order that they provide lower-collateral loans for people on (characteristic then as now) very modest incomes. Those very often from families, and in entire communities, outright owning very little.
        Birth of the low-doc loan.

        'Dubya' didn't help things with his administration further relaxing regulation and oversight, but, loopholes to permutation, on scams that ultimately precipitated the GFC, already there. Timeframes may have shifted a little in how things played out, but that would have been all.

  • HeWhoKnows on 04/05/2019 - 21:36
    -1

    So called "experts" have been predicting all this for years and it keeps going in the OPPOSITE direction.

    The FACT is NOBODY can predict the future.

    What should happen and what does happen are totally different because predictions are based on economic fundamentals but reality is the result of human emotions. Human emotions dont behave logically and thats why the economic modelling doesnt work.

    But apart from that the reasons why predictions about the AUD crashing are WRONG is becuase all those brains ignore the fact that the other currencies are sinking faster than the AUD.

    The AUD is going down but USD and EUR and going down faster giving the impression that the AUD is going up. Add to this the fact that we are still exporting record amounts of resources which are helping to keep the dollar up and resources are not about to slow down in any big way as somebody else pointed out.

    In fact if the USD starts slipping in a big way as the US economy slows and possibly goes into recession it will give the impression that the AUD is pushing back up which is not necessarily true. You should always benchmark the AUD against several major currencies. Not just the USD.

    Now if we look at real estate there are 3 things that combine to push prices down…

    1. A credit squeeze as we have just experienced but that is now being loosened up with the Banking Royal Commission well behind us.

    2. Rising interest rates. Yes predictions about property prices crashing were based in interest rates going up but now they look like they will either stay on hold or go DOWN!

    3. High unemployment but that isnt even looking like its going to happen with unemployment rates still going lower.

    When all 3 factors work together thats when you will see property prices really fall.

    So everything in the big world is RELATIVE.
    Nothing works in isolation.

    All these so called experts fail to consider the BIG PICTURE.

    My suggestion is DONT TRY TO PREDICT and dont rely on the predictions of others as the records clearly shows they are WRONG 90% of the time!

    Put togther a wealth building plan and stick to it, making minor adjustments along the way as conditions change.

    • Ti-au on 05/05/2019 - 17:22

      but USD and EUR and going down faster

      The USD is not going down, but rising….

      giving the impression that the AUD is going up..

      No its falling.

      • HeWhoKnows on 05/05/2019 - 19:27
        -2

        I dont know where you get your numbers.
        I monitor both daily.
        Depends on the time frame along which you measure as to which way they are going.
        I can assure you ALL the information I have provided is CORRECT!

        I will be happy to debate the facts with you any day.

        Perhaps you should expand your research (significantly) beyond one graph and discover whats really happening in the big manipulated world of central banks as they are largely responsible for what is happening to both currencies and real estate.

        I have offrered OP explanations and guidance.
        You have offered meaningless mumbo jumbo.

        • Ti-au on 05/05/2019 - 20:53

          My time frame is 1 year for a long term trend.

          I monitor both daily.

          why would you look at 1 day for a trend? Its all noise.
          If a day movement makes a trend let me find you a 3 Hour chart you can trade, or perhaps a 90 second chart would be better?

          I can assure you ALL the information I have provided is CORRECT!

          A broken clock is CORRECT! twice a day - whats your point?

          I will be happy to debate the facts with you any day.

          wow… good for you. But really who cares what your opinion on the facts are, as it makes no difference to any positions I hold or you might hold.

          I kind of want to ask you about Brexit. But as you said there is no point becomes no can predict anything ever.

          big manipulated world of central banks as they are largely responsible for what is happening to both currencies and real estate.

          wow the M2 rate of US is the highest its ever been!!!!! that will move the dial!
          And remember a billion Chinese have nothing to do with anything.

          You have offered meaningless mumbo jumbo.

          And the best you have offered is an opinion with an indeterminate timeline, which is basically the same.

  • MessyG on 04/05/2019 - 21:36
    +1

    You have done not a lot of research, you have done a lot of reading to support your opinion and talked to people who support your opinion. A lot of research is someone in the field dedicated five years of their life to doing a PhD on some tiny piece of fiscal analysis.

    The media and government aren't some John Carpenter-style organised conspiracy to keep us blind to the truth, (as satisfyingly dramatic as that may seem) they are huge organisations being steered by flawed humans trying to lead around other flawed humans and sometimes they get stuff right and sometimes they get stuff wrong. Sometimes their vested interests push them too far one way, then the other, and other times things are pretty balanced.

    All you can do is protect yourself financially as much as you can, and try to protect those around you - around election time there's a lot of chest beating about 'the economy', lots of whipping up of anxiety about it, and surprise surprise, it all settles down again once the election is over, regardless of who wins it. Be sensible with your money, read The Barefoot Investor, live your life etc.

  • moar bargains on 04/05/2019 - 21:38
    +2

    Charts are NOT lying

    That's as may be, but as a fund manager I follow once said: "I've yet to meet a wealthy chartist…"

    • HeWhoKnows on 04/05/2019 - 21:53
      +1

      Depends on what is being charted.
      They are just a measure and if you aren't measuring the right things you get the WRONG answer.

      If you look at AUD vs EUR its been a bit of a rocky ride over the last 12 months. But we started out at 0.63 and we are back at 0.63. So what does that tell you? Not much!

      Now looking at AUD vs USD. back in Sept 2015 and in Jan 2016 it fell to 0.69. Now its at 0.70. Big deal!

      What the charts do show is that everyone is trying to devalue their currency against each other to gain an export pricing advantage but this is a forever changing situation.

      Apart from that charts are only a view of the PAST.
      They cant predict the future.

      So yes, charts dont lie until somebody tries to extend the past into the future.

  • Name on 04/05/2019 - 22:22
    +1

    I hope so!

    My wife earns money in USD and it isn't tied to the Australian economy (other than exchange rate). We've paid off our house and looking to buy a second. Housing crash + 50c USD = winning…

    • gimme on 04/05/2019 - 23:50
      +11

      Until she leaves you for a better model

      • Name on 07/05/2019 - 08:47
        +1

        Hah wouldn't be hard. As long as I get to keep the house. :p

    • HeWhoKnows on 05/05/2019 - 19:35
      -1

      I dont think you will see AUD/USD at 50c again unless Labor is in government and Paul Keating as Treasurer gives us "the recession we had to have" after turning Australia into a banana republic.

    • eggles01 on 06/05/2019 - 21:11
      -1

      I do not know what you think this is all about,but we are talking about the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR crashing to 0.50c which would mean that for each $100 usd you would have to pay $143.12 aud,if you doubt these figures,go and google-a finance converter,there are a huge amount of them,all free to use

      • Name on 07/05/2019 - 08:44

        Yeah. But I'm not travelling to or buying anything in USD? My wife earns in USD but works here. At the moment if she earns $20,000USD she gets roughly $28,600AUD. If the dollar drops to 50c she'll get $40,000AUD. The dollar dropping when earning a lot from the US market helps a lot.

        • Name on 07/05/2019 - 14:47

          Can't edit now. But just to expand on my earlier comment for further clarity. She earns money from around the world, but earns it in whatever currency the customer is in/purchases in. It is then converted to AUD once a month and paid out at whatever the exchange rate is at that point in time. So the AUD performing poorly across any market is good for us. But the USD in particular as that is where her main customer base is.

          We unfortunately don't get to postpone payment for a better exchange rate.

          • superValue on 08/05/2019 - 00:22

            @Name: I would have thought you could get the money paid into a local USD account?

            • Name on 08/05/2019 - 08:27

              @superValue: Our googling led us to believe you'd need to be an American resident or citizen to open an American bank account? If not please do elaborate! as that would be awesome.

          • shadowangel on 08/05/2019 - 21:32

            @Name: why would you not open a borderless account like the transferwise one. let them deposit in USD. will save you a small fortune.

            • Name on 09/05/2019 - 13:30

              @shadowangel: Thanks. Checked them out just then. They charge a fee to change currency. $20k USD to AUD is a fee of ~$110 AUD. So around $1,300 a year. Probably wipes out any savings unfortunately.

  • joungs on 05/05/2019 - 02:39
    +1

    Imagine how good our exports will be lol

    • Ti-au on 05/05/2019 - 17:23

      Our exports of what?

      Minerals which are already priced in USD?

      :thumbs up:

    • HeWhoKnows on 05/05/2019 - 19:37

      Resource Exports are already running at record levels.
      It doesnt get any better for the Big Miners.
      But yes, actually it can!

      Thats why the AUD wont be going down below US 70c in a big way as some predict.

  • Hydrool on 05/05/2019 - 10:09
    +1

    There is definitely a 'risk off' attitude in the world market right now, partly shown by the inversion of US treasury yield curve and a flight to USD. the Dollar is going to rise, both due to it being a safe haven currency and the recent out performance of the US economy (3.2% growth vs 2.5% forecast and 3.6% unemployment, lowest since the 70s). the Febs have also announced intention to raise rate twice this year.

    Given the proxy nature of the AUD, you will see a slight increase in the short term as the US/China trade war concludes in May but will then begin to slide as the RBA cut rates (80% probability) and global economic outlook continue to be sluggish.

    In this environment, investors may want to look at investing money offshore, especially in USD denominated securities - one as a hedge against economic downturn, and two to benefit from the performance of the US economy.

    • netjock on 05/05/2019 - 15:21

      Mostly correct. If the US is raising rates and rest of the world not AUD would drop against the USD but remain the same against all other currencies. Considering majority of our imports are made in China / Japan & rest of Asia price of imports may not go up.

    • Ti-au on 05/05/2019 - 17:25

      of course you can't predict the future!!!!!!! /s

    • HeWhoKnows on 05/05/2019 - 19:43
      -2

      Hmm. USD is tipped to start sliding as the FED starts cutting rates again to save the US economy from recession.

      This is what the yield cuve is telling us my friend.

      So if things stay steady back home the AUD will hold ground whilst the USD falls.

      But so many "ifs", "buts" and "maybes".
      Everything is based on assumptions which may or may not be correct.

      One thing is for sure.
      The US bond market is the biggest market in the world by far.
      Such an enormous mass of BIG investors cannot be wrong.
      The people are the market makers!

      • Bozman on 06/05/2019 - 21:16

        “Such an enormous mass of BIG investors cannot be wrong.”

        BS. Every major market correction is where the prevailing market view was wrong.

  • Cave Fire on 05/05/2019 - 12:02

    You're worrying about the wrong trend… Start of the decades eg 1990, 2000, 2010 have all had major falls/contractions. I think the trend goes back further and is usually on the turn of the decade or within two years eg 1952. Also read that these cycles are caused by banks, they make money cheap then consolidate the loans in the crisis times. If you are prepared for the downturn you will be right.

    • HeWhoKnows on 05/05/2019 - 19:49

      Fair call!
      So what could possibly bring it all down is the enormous weight of debt!

      Thats one thing not many are watching

      And I read that 30 day and 90 day loans arrears are climbing already!

  • postform on 05/05/2019 - 18:10

    Hey mate,

    I would like to know more of your points on how you drawn to your conclusions about the economy. I am also in your camp about the economy but not the usd/aud.

    Also I have been interested in gold. I would like to ask you how you invested into it. ETFs? Commsec Gold? Gold Stocks on the exchange or did you buy gold directly as in the physical item?

    Thanks,
    David

    • HeWhoKnows on 05/05/2019 - 19:56

      Be careful of gold.
      It's highly manipulated by the big boys.
      Price should be much higher than it is at present.
      This is backed up by the scarcity of physical gold for sale.
      Also the fact several central banks have been increasing thier gold reserves over the last few years

    • Hydrool on 06/05/2019 - 08:56

      Hi David,

      All of those are viable ways to invest in gold. You can also look at swiss francs which is often used as a proxy for gold due to their high gold reserve relative to its size, although I am curious as to why you’d invest in gold.

      • superValue on 08/05/2019 - 00:26

        Careful the CHF is manipulated from time to time. Look what happened to it when they unpegged from the EUR in 2015 I think.

  • lainey13 on 05/05/2019 - 19:13

    Damn! More local holidays for me I guess.

    • HeWhoKnows on 05/05/2019 - 19:58

      There is always somewhere cheaper to travel.
      Thailand excellent value at present as is China

      • lainey13 on 05/05/2019 - 20:02

        Too many countries base their currency on USD. I just returned from Peru and it was damn annoying that I wanted to pay in soles but it would be converted from USD first…

        • Baysew on 06/05/2019 - 16:00
          -1

          Are you the devil?

  • newbiesh on 05/05/2019 - 22:01

    Well you have forcast US economy as well for more accurate result.

  • Aerith-Waifu on 05/05/2019 - 23:48

    I dont see we will be effected much by a low AUD, as long as everyone got their jobs and the lower the dollar, the more buyers coming from overseas on ours exports, also more tourist coming in, it balance its self out.

  • superValue on 05/05/2019 - 23:50

    Even the "top" 20 economists aren't in agreement of where the AUD will be in a few years but you know from charts that don't lie and so called technical experts.

    A drop to 0.50 is possible but it's got nothing to do with charts setting the path ahead. Charts are only a representation of past data and not a predictor of the future.

    I'm now more concerned that people believe charts don't lie - I didn't know they predict the future. Maybe you should consult some tea leaves also to ensure you've got all your basis covered.

    If the AUD drops to 0.50, oh well stupidly cheap t shirts from Kmart, bigw, target will go up to $8, TVs and other goods we just upgrade that we don't need will go up and hopefully people will stop being so wasteful!

    Who knows we might start manufacturing something again.

  • windowshopper on 06/05/2019 - 01:05

    Even if our dollar doesn't go to 50 cents, our bills like rates water electricity gas rego health, will still go up. They never adjust down. This is corruptly unavoidable.

    Hidden inflation like smaller packaging in groceries is increasing.
    If you are an ozbargainer you have the "smarts" to shop around.

    What adding pressure is that wages are stagnating. You have large companies in Australia and worldwide starting to reduce workforce numbers due to automation ramping up; this will increase greatly over the next 5-10 years.
    We also have an un-employment rate that is vastly misleading (being counted as Employed includes people who are in a paid job for one hour or more in a week.)
    The number underemployed number is one to watch out for as it's showing an unfortunate future for our younger generation's work lives. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfdOnzBeLuA

    But there's a crap load of factors that can cause the our long due recession (i.e. real-estate bubble / China tanking / US tanking)

    We are all speculating until it happens.

  • brad1-8tsi on 06/05/2019 - 11:11

    Weve been down to 50c before. I was buying aircraft tooling at 46c (the rate I could get) in 2001. The world didn't stop turning. It was helpful for local industry and local employment. People holidayed in Australia instead of overseas. We imported less. I don't think my standard of living dropped.

  • babablack on 06/05/2019 - 11:32

    just woke up today to see our AUD slipped lower

    • Dovrick on 08/05/2019 - 11:34

      The market is being emotional, bears lost out yesterday when the interest rate held steady at 1.5%. The market drift is currently off-risk so people are happy to sell AUD and wait till the China Market Data which is due at 1:00 pm.

      Stop being melodramatic and maybe take a look at https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar

      Once the figures have been released the dollar will stabilize, either back up towards 70.4 or around 70 flat.

  • Cluster on 06/05/2019 - 12:31

    If reading charts worked there would be a lot of really wealthy people out there. The problem is everyone's reading the same charts and making similar conclusions based on similar analysis. The real trick is knowing when the chart shows either an economic boom and betting against it right before a bust, and vice versa.

    There's also the case of manipulation and fraud, particularly in the crypto currency area. Right now Bitfinex/Tether are alleged to have a US$850 million hole in their finances that they didn't tell anyone about, and may have manipulated the market to boost the price of bitcoin in 2017. Did a chart predict that?

    Predictions are easy to make, especially about the past.

  • Brianqpr on 06/05/2019 - 12:37

    We were at 50 cents in the early 2000s for a while and things were fine. My parents came from the UK and paid for everything because they felt so wealthy. The barmy army sang songs about 3 dollars to the pound at the cricket, the sun still shone. House prices were very strong.

    More money will pour in from overseas if our dollar is cheap. House prices will start going up again. I can also transfer my UK pension for a better exchange rate.

    Not that big a deal.

    • Cluster on 06/05/2019 - 12:49

      It wouldn't be a disaster, but would be problematic in a few areas. Fuel costs is one, which feeds through to the entire economy through inflation. All liquid fuel prices are set in US$ and traded on international markets, so the falling dollar could lead to $2/L petrol and diesel. Not nice. My business also relies on a key ingredient imported from the USA, so it would squeeze my profit margins or possibly eliminate them entirely.

      • Brianqpr on 06/05/2019 - 13:02
        +1

        True. Any currency level benefits some more than others. Importers hurt when its low, exporters when its high.

    • superValue on 06/05/2019 - 23:41

      Hi friend would you mind sharing your pension with me? Thank you kindly your new friend :)

  • profane01 on 06/05/2019 - 12:56

    I did 'loose' any interest in reading this fairly quickly

  • Mitch889 on 06/05/2019 - 15:01

    "since 2017 they were all telling me Australia is doomed to have a housing crisis and also loosing a lot on its AUD value"

    Considering this is how things have gone for decades, hardly a startling prediction that it would happen again. Prices go up, recede a bit, then start going up again. Rinse and repeat.

  • serpserpserp on 06/05/2019 - 20:14

    I have done a lot of research around our economy and have consulted professionals in technical analysis.

    You've read a couple of trader forums eh? Are you actually doing TA as a paid profession for yourself?

    I am very afraid my self for the next couple of years and for sure cost of living goes up

    Why do you import a lot of fruit and vege for eating at home? Do you buy your energy for your house overseas?

    anyones welcome to debate it.

    What is to debate? You say the AUD is going to 50c but give no rationale to this.

    EDIT: I forgot to add that, you do realize that the AUD being lower is not actually a bad thing for the economy? It is quite the opposite for an export economy like Australia. They only people that are really disadvantaged are the people wanting to buy discretionary goods over the internet from other countries.

  • eggles01 on 06/05/2019 - 21:54

    I have come to the conclusion that high proportion of commentators actually think we are talking about the USD crashing,it may be a shock for them to realize we are talking about the AUSTRALIA Dollar crashing to $0.50 against the USD,to put it in to words, a USD item costing $100 we would have to pay $143.21 in AUD,if it ever happened again

    • TEER3X on 08/05/2019 - 02:26

      Math is off, if $1.00 AUD is $0.50 USD, a $100 USD item becomes $200 AUD

      • Name on 08/05/2019 - 08:31
        +1

        I think their $143 calc is based on current exchange rate and not the 50c. Could be wrong tho. Otherwise yeah you're right with the 50c exchange rate,it would be $200.

    • serpserpserp on 08/05/2019 - 20:13

      Actually nobody is thinking that from what I've read.

  • eggles01 on 06/05/2019 - 23:01
    -1

    if anybody is interested,I have just converted a house in Australia valued at $400,000 aud it would cost $279,505,28 in usd

    • TEER3X on 08/05/2019 - 02:38
      +2

      Yes thank you, that helped a lot with my breakfast, made it easier to digest. I love obscure numbers and comments.

      I had avocado but no toast. I think butter is a better fit for toast personally, but it's a little embarrassing to ask for that in public these days.

      Speaking of avocados, did you know they are native to southern Mexico? The Mexicans use pesos as their currency, I wonder what they will think of us of our currency crashes and we stop buying avocados. Surely we would be the laughing stock of the world a country that can't afford avocados.

  • gimme on 07/05/2019 - 08:54
    +2

    This stuff is easy. Make a whole bunch of predictions. Eventually one of them would come true sometime in the next 10 years. Then claim expert or prophet status when the 24hr entertainment news media scrambles to get a piece of you.

    • Cluster on 07/05/2019 - 11:12
      +1

      Absolutely. Also the media will conveniently forget all the wrong predictions you made in the past and only focus on the ones that came true. You'll look like a modern day economic genius.

    • TEER3X on 08/05/2019 - 02:36

      Nah, this is more a case of OP posting the equivalent of clickbait and then coming back a few months later to brag about their prophecy if it comes true (about a 1/1000 chance), otherwise this entire thread will lie dormant and everyone will forget about this ridiculous prediction.

  • thesaver on 07/05/2019 - 12:16
    +1

    She'll be right

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