High Possibilities of Australia Going to a Financial Crisis and AUD/USD down to $0.50 USD

babablack on 03/05/2019 - 12:11
Last edited 03/05/2019 - 13:12 by 1 other user

Hi

I have done a lot of research around our economy and have consulted professionals in technical analysis. since 2017 they were all telling me Australia is doomed to have a housing crisis and also loosing a lot on its AUD value.

Its very much possible AUD goes down to 50cents USD so almost like $2 AUD = $1 USD. Charts are NOT lying. it doesnt matter how many times media or government tries to say everything looks ok.

I am very afraid my self for the next couple of years and for sure cost of living goes up a lot when our AUD value goes down so much. right now AUD/USD=0.699. It had the $0.7 support line for a long time but its likely to break.

just wanted to share my opinion here. anyones welcome to debate it.

General Discussion

Comments

    • drmarshall on 04/05/2019 - 16:25

      And they wonder why journalism has a bad rep

  • tallmantim on 03/05/2019 - 13:19
    +9

    I remember heading to the US in early 2000s and was buying USD$ for over AU$2 at the airport.

    The sky wasn’t falling then, and it was a big boon to our tech sector (we were a favourable dev location because of the dollar).

    Just stack up on eneloops now.

    • Ti-au on 05/05/2019 - 16:45

      lol @ tech sector.

  • djones145 on 03/05/2019 - 13:19
    +12

    Hi

    I have done a lot of research around our economy and have consulted professionals in technical analysis. since 2017 they were all telling me Australia is not going to have a housing crisis and also gonna gainba lot on its AUD value.

    Its very much possible AUD goes down to 100 cents USD so almost like $1 AUD = $1 USD. Charts are NOT lying. it doesnt matter how many times media or government tries to say everything not ok.

    I am very afraid my self for the next couple of years and for sure cost of living goes down a lot when our AUD value goes up so much. right now AUD/USD=0.699. It had the $0.7 support line for a long time but its likely to break.

    just wanted to share my opinion here. anyones welcome to debate it

    • babablack on 03/05/2019 - 13:22
      -2

      you mEan going up to 100cent?

      • djones145 on 03/05/2019 - 14:41
        +8

        what ever u said but in reverse
        got it from my secret source, babablack, fully accurate
        fully br0
        like fully sick br0

    • Wallyt99 on 04/05/2019 - 10:52
      +3

      If the dollar goes down, it significantly increases the AUD take of any export industries (coal / gas) whose contracts are all in $USD. This props up the government revenue who can inject stimulus into the economy.

      Furthermore foreigners (e.g Chinese) will see excellent value in our property market because they can get much more $AUD for the RMB…. You are predicting essentially a 35% discount on property for foreigners.

      Lastly Australia becomes and even MORE populate destination for foreign students who make a significant contribution to the Australian economy (and is Victorias biggest 'export' earner).

      I.e if what you say is true the benefits for the overall economy mean that we will have jobs and wage growth sufficient to make up for the increased cost of foreign goods.

      Relax.

      • Ti-au on 05/05/2019 - 16:48

        Furthermore foreigners (e.g Chinese) will see excellent value in our property market because they can get much more $AUD for the RMB

        Completely ignores dynamics in China.

        Lastly Australia becomes and even MORE populate destination for foreign students

        Only if they keep letting them in. Uk stopped the scam and surprise! the numbers of students fell.

        wage growth sufficient to make up for the increased cost of foreign goods.

        Venezuela has awesome wage growth. Do you think their wages will make up for the foreign goods they buy?

      • Hasbulla on 06/05/2019 - 21:45

        the ethics of the foreign students: https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/cash-cows/11064094

  • thesaver on 03/05/2019 - 13:23
    +14

    She'll be right mate

  • Donaldhump on 03/05/2019 - 13:40
    +2

    simple,

    move to the us, work and pump money back.

    • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 14:15
      +4

      Australia, the new (but not New) Mexico.

      • Scrooge McDuck on 04/05/2019 - 15:14
        -1

        I thought that was Victoria.

      • srpeel on 04/05/2019 - 15:39

        Not much wrong with the bit of Mexico that I live in (Puerto Vallarta). Much cheaper than Oz to buy property, cheaper to live (e.g. we paid MXN8000 (about AU$600)for labour, to have our entire apartment, 125SqM painted), not paying the OZ tax for importing things and fantastic climate.
        It's just as well if the AU$ continues to decline.

        • Baysew on 04/05/2019 - 15:46
          +2

          But having a constant blue with the neighbours over a fence is not so fantastic.

  • Trying2SaveABuck on 03/05/2019 - 14:24
    +2

    I dare say if you truly believe this put all your money into a USD account and wait it out because if you can predict the future you will be rich….

    • The Wololo Wombat on 05/05/2019 - 13:43
      +1

      I have $64 in cash rn. How much can I make?

      • filfa on 06/05/2019 - 09:22

        Approx $3.14 minus commissions.

        So you lose money.

        • Musing Outloud on 06/05/2019 - 16:01

          Not if he can sell wombat pie…

  • askme69 on 03/05/2019 - 14:32
    +1

    Populate or perish has really worked for us :))

    Imagine if we had the mining boom with 10 million less people.

    • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 17:54
      -5

      Fewer people would work since we will be able to or may actually need to import skilled labour for our infrastructure upgrades.

      Since there's more people who are not willing to work, that's a bigger voting segment.

      Welfare and handouts increase.

      Socialist government will hold power. They'll increase spending on healthcare and education, etc. Etc.

      Healthcare, education, etc. Etc. will realise that there's no competition, scrutiny or incentive to be efficient (like all state run anything). The standards will slide and they'll soon become a machine for embezzlement.

      The rich will still be able to afford world class medical treatment and education… offshore.

      Essentially, we would be like Saudi Arabia (sans royalty).

      • this is us on 05/05/2019 - 10:41

        What's the name of this book? I've checked the fiction shelf and couldn't find.

        • Ti-au on 05/05/2019 - 17:02
          +2

          People have this weird idea that because we have some service sectors (with a tiny amount of education for export earnings) that we are Not a primary producer when in fact basically the same as a oil producing nation, just replace oil with minerals.

          Go look where we send all our minerals.
          Go look where Gulf countries send their oil.
          Guess what - its the same countries! Who would of thought! (baring India).

          We are:
          second largest exporter of thermal coal
          world's largest iron ore producer
          largest LNG exporter

          But no, we absolutely and completely different from other primary producers.

  • grog on 03/05/2019 - 14:44
    -1

    "Australia is doomed"

    bullshit

    • holdenmg on 03/05/2019 - 14:57
      +2

      I don't see what the bumper sticker on ScoMo's Bus has to do with anything. lol

    • Hasbulla on 06/05/2019 - 21:45

      no, just drowning in private debt

  • ihbh on 03/05/2019 - 14:45
    +4

    housing crisis

    and

    and for sure cost of living goes up a lot

    does not compute.

  • ihbh on 03/05/2019 - 14:47
    +6

    Its very much possible AUD goes down to 50cents USD

    why don't you short the AUD and make a fortune?

  • Seraphin7 on 03/05/2019 - 14:59

    Have you shorted the AUD then? If so, you stand to make a motza in the very near future so not sure what you are afraid of. Or aren't you that convinced by your research and consulted professionals?

  • rambutann on 03/05/2019 - 15:41

    Sorry so how is this a bad thing? All points of the AUD/USD rate have their positives/negatives..

    IF we were to see 0.50USD to every $1AUD it will increase domestic consumption as goods will be cheaper to source locally, Australian exports will yield higher profits, it will generate more jobs..
    I would be more concerned about $1AUD = $2USD…

    We will just change our spending habits..

    Maybe this is just my perception of it all.. I work in a company that only deals in USD.. the worse it gets, the more money to be made…

    • Tuftsdude on 06/05/2019 - 20:19
      +1

      Everyone who wants to travel will get shafted, and continue to do so. Good for few, bad for many.

      • [Deactivated] on 07/05/2019 - 20:10

        How much of a difference does it make to people who are traveling to Bali or Thailand?

        • Tuftsdude on 07/05/2019 - 21:08
          +1

          It makes a difference, and not everyone wants to travel there, why do you assume that's the case?

          • [Deactivated] on 07/05/2019 - 23:26
            +1

            @Tuftsdude: I did not assume anything I just asked a question.

            You also said "Everyone who wants to travel". Travel is one of the most inconsequential luxuries. Just "travel" somewhere cheaper.

            • Tuftsdude on 08/05/2019 - 02:13
              +1

              @[Deactivated]: Whatever helps you sleep at night. Some people have families in countries where the exchange rate is not in our favour, i.e. majority of the world. Or sometimes we have business overseas and the $ plays a big role.

              You obviously don't travel and aren't affected so good for you.

              • [Deactivated] on 10/05/2019 - 21:06

                @Tuftsdude: Yea, sure worrying about something that might or might not happen should keep me up every night. Also, how much does travel expenditure consist of in terms of % yearly income for the average Australian.

                If they have business overseas, shouldn't the profits be more in terms of AUD then?

                "You obviously don't travel and aren't affected so good for you." Wow. What your assumptions are so strong that things you have no idea about me are immediately "obvious" to you.

    • eggles01 on 06/05/2019 - 22:15

      Hi,we are actually talking about the possibility of the AUSTRALIAN dollar crashing to $0.50c to the American dollar,this is an example I just converted 100USD to Australian dollar,and it would cost the Aud $143.12,I believe the AUD is around $0.73 to the USD,I would suggest you download a "currency Converter" there are a lot of free converters by Google search "currency converter",if you are really interested try Google search on WIKIPEDIA/AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR and read more on the pro and cons of the increase and decrease of the AUD.

  • LikeMike on 03/05/2019 - 17:26
    +4

    I remember when it was close to 48 cents around early 2000's and it wasn't really an issue back then, though it was for a mate that road tripped route 66 at the time and everything cost double for him. You're really making a mountain out of a molehill on this issue. Relax!

    BTW, it's losing, not loosing.

    • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 17:48
      +2

      Maybe the OP can cut his loosses.

      • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 18:14
        +2

        Cut lose his looses?

      • LikeMike on 03/05/2019 - 18:20
        +1

        Damn you…Now I have the Fraggle Rock tune stuck in my head.

  • mskeggs on 03/05/2019 - 21:48
    +58

    There is no need for fear.
    Especially on this site where people are pretty sensible about finances.

    Choose a career which is useful to society and you won’t have to worry about sustained unemployment.
    Stay out of consumer debt (car loans, credit card balances, buy now, pay later etc.).
    Buy a house that has repayments you can afford or rent.
    Don’t get into shaky speculation on crypto or housing bubbles or hot, hot hot, shares.
    Send your kids to public schools, use the public healthcare, ride the public transport, visit the public libraries, exercise in the public parks, watch the public broadcaster, swim at the public beach.

    Enjoy the life you have with your friends and family, the amazing culture available for free in our cities and towns and online, the sports broadcast for free on the radio or tv or played at the park down the road. Join your local community groups to make where you live better. Help out at your local school.

    It’s all free or close to it. You are incredibly unlikely to go hungry in this country, and you really need to be unlucky with substances, mental illness and bad luck to end up homeless. You qualify for good healthcare and welfare if things get tough. Everything else is a win!

    • babablack on 03/05/2019 - 22:31
      +1

      well done, very well written comment. thanks for your time and sharing your opinion. I am worried not because the cost of living goes up or i will be in trouble. I am worried because many people will lose their homes and savings in case of a financial crisis.

      • mskeggs on 03/05/2019 - 22:45
        +7

        They will be ok.
        If they lose their homes, they can rent a place. If they lose their savings, they can save some more later.
        If they are old or sick, they can get the pension.
        If they are young and well, then they have great opportunities.

        • Hasbulla on 06/05/2019 - 21:49
          +1

          How do they rent a place with no money?
          What if unemployment (real data, not fantasy 1hr/month=employed) skyrockets and one third of the highest pro capita debt on the planet defaults?

          • mskeggs on 07/05/2019 - 07:49

            @Hasbulla: A lot of fear happens because the scary thing is hard to think through.
            For example, if everyone in my family lost their jobs (note that even in the Great Depression unemployment in Australia peaked at about 25%), we have cash savings that could tide us over for a while.
            When these were exhausted we would qualify for welfare, so we would have some income. Even if that wasn't enough, due to some Zimbabwe style collapse (which I will say cannot happen in Australia), we have family with paid off homes and gardens we could grow some veges in. In tough times, people band together to help each other out.

            Note also that if there are many people out of work, rents will drop substantially, as landlords seek to get their own income, and the government will be under extreme pressure to look after the unemployed.

            And remember that a financial mess is a temporary thing. Even some of the terrible depressions in the 19th century didn't last more than 10 or 15 years of higher unemployment. Consider too, that we have many structures in place to deal with such misfortune that didn't exist in the past.

            You will be OK, you aren't going to starve. Though I do urge you to be responsible with debt.

            • Hasbulla on 07/05/2019 - 09:02

              @mskeggs: I'm like you mate: no debt, cash in the bank.
              Most of our fellow citizenships are not.
              I reckon you have very strong assumptions there that might cover yours and my situation.
              10-15 years is not a short time span.
              If the housing frenzy stops/slows, not those many jobs around to be found.
              Not talking starvation here, talking drowning in debt and major class inequalities.

              • mskeggs on 07/05/2019 - 17:21
                +1

                @Hasbulla:

                talking drowning in debt and major class inequalities.

                Oh sure, this is well on the cards. We can see a preview in the USA already in the outcomes they engineered following the GFC. It sucks and it is miserable to be a millennial with terrible job security, huge education debt, high housing costs and no health insurance. I hope it precipitates a change in their system.

                In AU we have quite a bit of that ahead of us, but I think we will likely avoid the worst of the healthcare and education debt misery, assuming sane voters that allow us to keep Medicare and HECS. The high housing costs look to be moderating a bit here, and the precarious work is bad, but nowhere near as bad as in the USA.

                I guess the crux of my comment is that if you seek satisfaction in life in possessions and prestige and luxury, that can be snatched away. But the vast bulk of life's pleasures and meaning can be achieved for free or close to it.
                And it is good to remember that stuff when the message in the media is we will all be ruined!

                • Hasbulla on 07/05/2019 - 19:23
                  +1

                  @mskeggs: agreed, 101%.
                  Only minor note?
                  Let's not look at the USA as a model, please!

                  At times I feel like Australia is a bit of an American experiment gone wrong: keeping up with the Kardanesses, massive per capita environmental footprint (and private debt) and car dependance anti-community interaction large lot suburbias.

                  However I'm a dreamer and I know that there's so much more that Australia can do to prevent spiralling down into the big wealth divide.

      • ihbh on 04/05/2019 - 07:17

        There's a saying that if you take all the money in the world and divide equally, eventually it will return to the same pockets. The ones that come out well from a financial crisis won't need all the money and they'll most likely participate in some of giving program. See how many people have participated in The Giving Pledge to date.

        • Scrooge McDuck on 04/05/2019 - 15:22
          +1

          There's a saying that if you take all the money in the world and divide equally, eventually it will return to the same pockets.

          A contrary interpretation:

          A fool and their money are soon parted.

          • ihbh on 04/05/2019 - 15:37

            @Scrooge McDuck:

            A contrary interpretation

            consistent?

            The fools that get money divvied to them will see it parted from them and go back to the pockets of the savvy ones where they originally resided.

          • brendanm on 05/05/2019 - 10:43

            @Scrooge McDuck: An accurate interpretation.

  • chami on 04/05/2019 - 08:41

    I shorted the $AUD when it was US$1.10 that worked well. Now have only 3% of portfolio in Betashares US, but may increase it.

    For $10K, ASX:US costs about $75 per year compared to ~$900 for a bank account if you believe the advert:
    https://www.betashares.com.au/campaigns/usd-etf-betashares/

    Not financial advise and is general nformation only

    • Never Pay RRP on 04/05/2019 - 19:19

      Did you just blindly believe there is a 9.7% spread on a foreign currency account?

      • chami on 05/05/2019 - 12:06

        Using the CBA cash converter:
        US$100 -> AU$136 and AUS136 become US$91.07.
        The foreign currency account converter is worse: $89.4
        https://www.commbank.com.au/personal/international/foreign-e…
        So the ball park figure is 9.1 or 11.6%

        The ASX:US interest rate is only 0.15% comapred to US rate of $2.25. I can not find the interest on the CBA account.
        But I guess we are always going to get screwed somewhere.

        • gromit on 05/05/2019 - 12:18

          CBA is a terrible example to use, they are at the extreme end of worst exchange rates in the industry.

          • chami on 06/05/2019 - 09:04

            @gromit: I'd be very interested whose the best and can beat ASX:US rate (to hold $US for 12-18 months)?

  • gromit on 04/05/2019 - 09:15
    +4

    The AUD going to $.50 is NOT a financial crisis. Neither is the housing market adjusting which it is much in need of. the lower AUD puts large parts of the economy into overdrive, especially tourism, mining and agricultural exports. Yes it hurts your ability to take overseas holidays or buy the latest sparkling gadgets but that is not a crisis. Food and housing prices will be fine and employment will probably also be great, some of the retail sector will suffer.

    • mohan76 on 04/05/2019 - 15:57
      -2

      how of many of the item you @ your home are made in Australia ? if au/usd around $0.50 for more than 2 weeks time could jack up Fuel price $2+ & cost of living by 30%

      i dont think it will remain under 0.60 for long time, chart/technical always fail when fundamental disagree.

  • BestofOZB on 04/05/2019 - 09:25

    Haha, yeah neah… you sound like you have no life experience. May I ask how old are you?

    • edwardcr on 04/05/2019 - 11:11
      +6

      Hate to tell you this, eggles, but the last time the AUD was ABOVE $1.00 (up to $1.10) was in the period 2010 - 2013, when Labor was also in power.

      So your point was??

      • Weezle on 04/05/2019 - 12:23
        -1

        … Which also happened to be during the aftermath of the GFC…. correlation doesn't imply causation my friend

        • Blitzfx on 07/05/2019 - 15:05

          A lot Ozbargainers are too dumb to know the difference apparently, and stupidly assumed you're defending eggles01.

          It's like comparing our $USD:$AUD against global warming. Both are trending upwards. Oh that must causation.

          So many idiots in this forum. Scary to know that they have an equal weight in voting for our future.

    • Baysew on 04/05/2019 - 11:17
      +11

      The record low was $0.4773 in April 2 2001. This was in the period of Liberals John Howard and Peter Costello.

      • smartazz104 on 04/05/2019 - 15:26
        +2

        And March 2001 was the first time it dipped below 0.50, looks like ScoMo has been lying to eggles01 again.

        • eggles01 on 06/05/2019 - 20:15
          -1

          why don't you google search "WIKIPEDIA/AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR"then you will see who is wrong and who is right,you will read that Bob Hawke in 1983 floated the Australian dollar and in 1988 the value fell to a """historical low of $0.475,""" it will also show that the $ has been under the 50c a few times in the 1970s,if you have the courage to admit your error,lets see an a comment saying you were wrong,I really do not think you have the courage to do so,my advice to all commentors that before you run someone down you should research before you open your mouth,by the way I am 76yrs and had voted for the labor party up to 1996 when J Howard defeated him,you know up to 1993 household items many were SALES TAX FREE,I maybe out a year but keating placed a 20% sales tax on toilet paper and the same on either tooth paste,so do you really believe under bill shorten that your bills will not get bigger well you vote for him and you will really see how big a mistake you have made,

          • smartazz104 on 06/05/2019 - 21:48
            +2

            @eggles01: “On 12 December 1983, the dollar was floated, allowing its value to fluctuate dependent on supply and demand on international money markets. The decision was made on 8 December 1983 and announced on 9 December 1983.[24]

            In the two decades that followed, its highest value relative to the US dollar was $0.881 in December 1988. The lowest ever value of the dollar after it was floated was 47.75 US cents in April 2001.[25] It returned to above 96 US cents in June 2008,[26] and reached 98.49 later that year. Although the value of the dollar fell significantly from this high towards the end of 2008, it gradually recovered in 2009 to 94 US cents.”

            Maybe you’re looking at a different page…

          • Baysew on 07/05/2019 - 10:07
            +2

            @eggles01:

            if you have the courage to admit your error,lets see an a comment saying you were wrong,I really do not think you have the courage to do so,my advice to all commentors (sic) that before you run someone down you should research before you open your mouth

            You are not being "run down". Simply, your opinion is contrary to the facts.

            Australian dollar

            AUD/USD since 1970

      • LFO on 04/05/2019 - 21:50
        +1

        Correct.
        And no one died.
        No one will die now.
        Next.

        Furthermore, with a dollar at 50 cents overseas buyers will buy all houses and units.
        And overseas students will come in mass.

        Next.

        • virhlpool on 05/05/2019 - 00:30
          +1

          Overseas students don't come when job market is bad or immigration policy isn't in favour for them. Overseas buyers don't buy houses when they don't see any uplift in prices anytime soon.

          • LFO on 06/05/2019 - 19:04

            @virhlpool: "Certain" overseas buyers get property to get rid of cash.
            Usually illegally obtained cash.

            So, the chance of laundering that cash for a clean dwelling IS enough. And it is even better if they get double the amount of AUD as they would have done before (or did before).

        • Brianqpr on 06/05/2019 - 12:40
          +1

          Statistically speaking quite a few people did die. But I get your point.

          • LFO on 06/05/2019 - 19:00

            @Brianqpr: LOL …

            But … but, statistically speaking, more people were born than those that died … because of the "Yankee dolla".

        • eggles01 on 06/05/2019 - 20:22

          lfo go and get some lessons in infinance so you will know what you are talking about!!

  • netjock on 04/05/2019 - 12:18
    +3

    It is a financial crisis now. Everyone tapped out on debt and the banks want their money back by restricting lending.

    $0.50 USD might be a symptom of financial crisis but you don't need one to tank the currency.

    Each to their own but saving and building a buffer is a good idea. Stop spending on useless stuff. See what is local instead of going Uber eats and deliveroo.

    • Ash SA on 05/05/2019 - 11:33
      +5

      In economics, when people stop spending on useless stuff is the exact start of recession mate. When people are skeptical about the financial spectrum and are scared, they try to save money and reduce spending. This slows down the flow of money in the economy and limits the opportunities.

      Be positive.

      Eat clean and talk dirty. That is the secret of good life

  • Solarlux on 04/05/2019 - 12:59
    +3

    It's obvious the LNP thinks there will be a crash, as they appear to be throwing this election so they are not at the helm when the crash arrives. All their credible polis have left the sinking ship to secure a better pension before they become backbenchers again (poli pensions are paid on the last salary that they received).

    • JIMB0 on 04/05/2019 - 17:37
      +3

      They know they can not kick the can much further down the road.

  • YoungQuan on 04/05/2019 - 13:09
    +4

    there is (profanity) all you can do about it whether its likely or not…completely irrelevant to your day to day life…how about your spend your time working on improving yourself and your skills instead to worrying about sh*t you can't affect

  • idonotknowwhy on 04/05/2019 - 13:28
    +1

    So diversify your asset portfolio internationally, then join me in not really giving a (profanity) what happens!

    • knasty on 04/05/2019 - 21:49
      +1

      Agree. Just make sure you choose an unhedged option instead of a hedged option if you think the AUD will drop.

  • TanTheMan on 04/05/2019 - 15:05
    +1

    Mate, you are looking at the housing crisis to determine Australia is going to shit??? Working in the engineering industry, I can tell you that mining is picking up again, and in the next 5 to 8 years we are expecting a mini-boom, if not a fully fledged mining boom, so no it seems unlikely a housing crisis will crash the economy. Agreed that housing debt is sky high, but there is no need for fear as infrastructure is here and mining will be making a comeback.

  • deek on 04/05/2019 - 15:25
    -5

    SAID HANRAHAN by John O'Brien

    "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    In accents most forlorn,
    Outside the church, ere Mass began,
    One frosty Sunday morn.

    The congregation stood about,
    Coat-collars to the ears,
    And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
    As it had done for years.

    "It's looking crook," said Daniel Croke;
    "Bedad, it's cruke, me lad,
    For never since the banks went broke
    Has seasons been so bad."

    "It's dry, all right," said young O'Neil,
    With which astute remark
    He squatted down upon his heel
    And chewed a piece of bark.

    And so around the chorus ran
    "It's keepin' dry, no doubt."
    "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "Before the year is out."

    "The crops are done; ye'll have your work
    To save one bag of grain;
    From here way out to Back-o'-Bourke
    They're singin' out for rain.

    "They're singin' out for rain," he said,
    "And all the tanks are dry."
    The congregation scratched its head,
    And gazed around the sky.

    "There won't be grass, in any case,
    Enough to feed an ass;
    There's not a blade on Casey's place
    As I came down to Mass."

    "If rain don't come this month," said Dan,
    And cleared his throat to speak -
    "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "If rain don't come this week."

    A heavy silence seemed to steal
    On all at this remark;
    And each man squatted on his heel,
    And chewed a piece of bark.

    "We want an inch of rain, we do,"
    O'Neil observed at last;
    But Croke "maintained" we wanted two
    To put the danger past.

    "If we don't get three inches, man,
    Or four to break this drought,
    We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "Before the year is out."

    In God's good time down came the rain;
    And all the afternoon
    On iron roof and window-pane
    It drummed a homely tune.

    And through the night it pattered still,
    And lightsome, gladsome elves
    On dripping spout and window-sill
    Kept talking to themselves.

    It pelted, pelted all day long,
    A-singing at its work,
    Till every heart took up the song
    Way out to Back-o'-Bourke.

    And every creek a banker ran,
    And dams filled overtop;
    "We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "If this rain doesn't stop."

    And stop it did, in God's good time;
    And spring came in to fold
    A mantle o'er the hills sublime
    Of green and pink and gold.

    And days went by on dancing feet,
    With harvest-hopes immense,
    And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
    Nid-nodding o'er the fence.

    And, oh, the smiles on every face,
    As happy lad and lass
    Through grass knee-deep on Casey's place
    Went riding down to Mass.

    While round the church in clothes genteel
    Discoursed the men of mark,
    And each man squatted on his heel,
    And chewed his piece of bark.

    "There'll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
    There will, without a doubt;
    We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
    "Before the year is out."

    • AliensStoleMyMoney on 06/05/2019 - 16:17

      i wonder how many negs were from people who just cbf reading that

      • deek on 06/05/2019 - 16:38

        I was thinking that myself. Shame, as it's an excellent poem, and is so appropriate to the topic.

        Deserves a +1 for its use of "bedad", at least. ;)

  • Blargman2001 on 04/05/2019 - 15:30
    +2

    Farmer out in the country making our food gets paid in AUD, check, the store that sells the farmers stock gets paid in AUD, check, bank that owns my mortgage wants payment in AUD, check, I get paid in AUD, check. Not gonna be homeless or starve, check. Good enough for me.

    • mohan76 on 04/05/2019 - 16:06
      +1

      Fuel from overseas
      Bank funds from international market -> cost++ - > higher interest rate ?
      * Farmer ) - fertilizer + fuel price drives food price

      No one going to be homeless, extra burden on pocket

      • netjock on 04/05/2019 - 16:39
        +1

        You bank funding formula is wrong.

        You get paid say 4% interest rate but the interest rate doesn't matter. It only matters last week it was a different FX rate and interest rate doesn't move to compensation. If you borrow in USD and use in Australia as AUD to avoid having to pay back more due to FX changes you hedge.

        Please don't confuse the two.

      • Blargman2001 on 05/05/2019 - 00:21
        +1

        Farmer gets fuel price back from getting a higher price on export of their stock and so on… It's all connected. Yes our buying power on the world stage goes down but like others have said, AUD has been here before and we all could still afford houses, cars and flat screen TV's.

        • shadowangel on 05/05/2019 - 23:51

          We use to make more, now the stuff we still do make uses mostly imported matierals.

  • altitudinous on 04/05/2019 - 15:43

    Your guess at what is going to happen is as good and as valid as any other.

  • [Deactivated] on 04/05/2019 - 16:11
    +8

    Well this seems like a very articulate and well thought out position, supported by a plethora of evidence. I’m glad I come to Ozbargain for my financial advice, because without posts like this, I’d be lost.

    • netjock on 04/05/2019 - 16:41
      -4

      Don't come to OzBargains for financial advice at least not comprehensive advice. The OP is confusing everything that drives the exchange rate with everything that drives a recession.

      • [Deactivated] on 04/05/2019 - 19:06
        +7

        Thanks for your valuable advice also, you’re almost as insightful as the OP.

        • netjock on 04/05/2019 - 21:49
          -3

          That is because I don't give free advice. Neither do I give partial and confusing advice. If it takes giving people what they want to hear to get a + vote I am not your person.

          • this is us on 05/05/2019 - 10:43
            +4

            @netjock: And it seems that you are not able to identify sarcasm.

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