High Possibilities of Australia Going to a Financial Crisis and AUD/USD down to $0.50 USD

babablack on 03/05/2019 - 12:11
Last edited 03/05/2019 - 13:12 by 1 other user

Hi

I have done a lot of research around our economy and have consulted professionals in technical analysis. since 2017 they were all telling me Australia is doomed to have a housing crisis and also loosing a lot on its AUD value.

Its very much possible AUD goes down to 50cents USD so almost like $2 AUD = $1 USD. Charts are NOT lying. it doesnt matter how many times media or government tries to say everything looks ok.

I am very afraid my self for the next couple of years and for sure cost of living goes up a lot when our AUD value goes down so much. right now AUD/USD=0.699. It had the $0.7 support line for a long time but its likely to break.

just wanted to share my opinion here. anyones welcome to debate it.

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  bizarredeal on 07/05/2019 - 20:23

  Not sure if this was discussed.
  Would be worth purchasing USD now?
  Or even via a forex trading platform?

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    TEER3X on 08/05/2019 - 02:35

    +1

    Yes that's a great idea, you a guaranteed one thing: you will pay transaction fees when you buy and then subsequently sell.

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  TEER3X on 08/05/2019 - 02:25

  The best estimate of what the AUD is worth tomorrow is it's actual value right now, i.e. $0.70 USD equals $1.00 AUD.

  I could be wrong, but a low Aussie dollar would shield us from a GFC because net exports (therefore GDP) go up.

  My contacts in forex tell me the AUD is a proxy for global growth / the health of the global economy as it is purely resource based. At current levels, seems about right.

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  [Deactivated] on 08/05/2019 - 07:57

  eventually fiat will always revert back to there true value of zero.

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  Gaz1 on 08/05/2019 - 14:58

  Wow - this guy is a genius!
  With his "lot of research" he should be snapped up by a currency trader that might consider this very valuable.
  As if….

  Surely the A$ value has a lot to do with the US economy too, so it is very complex to predic how this ratio is going to change with any confidence.

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  bob the builder on 09/05/2019 - 00:39

  +2

  Australia is completely f***ed, all those negatively geared folks out there will be screwed. The worse thing is how badly unemployment will rise in the next year or so. The National debt per person is huge already, i can't see Australia recovering from this well.

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    NeeKeeTa on 09/05/2019 - 09:49

    -1

    I wouldn't go as far as "f**ed", not in the near future at least.

    However, I do share your opinion depicted in the rest of your comment. Tough days ahead. The gravy train of "negative gearing" has stopped, but some people don't like to believe it.

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  CalmLemons on 09/05/2019 - 09:53

  +1

  Come on guys, troll post to the max.

  Consulting 'experts' is just term for, look, I have no idea what I'm talking about and am too lazy to read up on readily available information to make a well-educated statement on my own terms.

  People like this is what we call liquidity in the stock market.

  Meanwhile, a screenshot of this ozbargain post is circulating around investment banking e-mails this morning as funny shot of the day.

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  max900 on 09/05/2019 - 15:47

  +3

  Why are people getting triggered by this post? OP already said he is sharing his opinion and wanting an debate.

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  babablack on 14/05/2019 - 02:38

  +1

  look at aussie AUD its going down like crazy

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    shadowangel on 20/05/2019 - 14:12

    down nearly every day. down down down. while bitcoin is up 50% in a month.

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      GG57 on 20/05/2019 - 16:17

      I thought the AUD jumped up significantly yesterday.

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  BargainKen on 17/05/2019 - 20:01

  +1

  68.8 today

  Down down, dollar is down.

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  LFO on 20/05/2019 - 13:27

  Well imagine this:

  Back in the days of AUD$1=USD$1 you bought USD$5.000.000.
  Then looking for the best yearly interest all money ends up in a safe account in the Cayman Island. Taxed in the Cayman Island, not taxed in Oz. All legal (may be not fair but legal).

  Get an easy job. In government, public servant. Little work, no accountability, humongous pay, plenty of extra benefits.

  Then you wait until it gets AUD$1=USD$0.50 … or USD$1=AUD$2
  Then you sell all your USD and suddenly get AUD$10.000.000
  100% return.
  Tax free.
  No capital gains tax (CGT).
  No stamp duty.
  No Real Estate prima donnas.

  Now who was the guy may be doing this ????
  He knew.
  He is now retired (fired actually). He knew.

  Money brings money.

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    Gerry H on 20/05/2019 - 15:29

    dont forget the guy who bought $1000000 bill shorten will win. all in on 1 investment is the sure way u'll end up jumping from a roof.

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      LFO on 21/05/2019 - 16:21

      Ouch. He got shortened. Risky.

      FX never fails.

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    superValue on 21/05/2019 - 09:02

    Where did he get the $5mil from?

    Is the guy a resident of Australia or the Caymans?

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      LFO on 21/05/2019 - 16:20

      Australian resident. A charming chap from wealthy suburbs, Sydney.
      Taxes are payed in Cayman Islands as a non-resident foreigner. Minimal.

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        superValue on 22/05/2019 - 22:28

        If you're deemed as an Australian resident you pay taxes here regardless of the tax haven stash.

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          LFO on 23/05/2019 - 17:34

          @superValue: Taxes are reciprocal. You don't pay twice. Either here or there. Not both.

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            superValue on 24/05/2019 - 01:26

            @LFO: Not exactly my understanding.

            From my understanding you don't pay twice but you make up the shortfall that's if there's a treaty.

            Say you are on 30% tax rate here and you paid 0% in the Caymans you still have to pay the 30% here because it's based on your global income.

            Or if you paid 5% over there you pay 25% here to make 30%.

            The only way to not pay tax here is to live over there or live here and obfuscate your ownership over there through masked directors on trust in the Caymans but that is still illegal because when you fill in your tax form you would be denying you have investments over there which it explicitly asks about especially tax haven places.

            Hopefully you're right and you can show me the link on the ATO site.

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              LFO on 25/05/2019 - 19:28

              @superValue: Not necessarily.

              No taxes are paid if no income was produced (or show none has been produced).
              So having those mythical USD$5m will still represent AUD$10m if and when the other mythical 50c is reached.

              No "income" produced will probably be offset with interest free loans or bonds, certificates or whatever, not subject to income tax. It is a grey area so don't expect an official ATO ruling.

              If planning to do it (in the next FX cycle, of course) double check with your financial planner first. There could be even better around.

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                superValue on 26/05/2019 - 17:34

                @LFO: Your response seems to be overall very mythical. Eventually you need to realise the gains which in affect means you have made a profit.

                Then again, I'm just a layperson.

                I would appreciate if you could send me your financial advisors details so I can get the same advice.

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            Baysew on 25/05/2019 - 20:04

            @LFO:

            Taxes are reciprocal. You don't pay twice. Either here or there. Not both.

            Not so

            Foreign investments
            If you are an Australian resident with overseas assets you need to include any capital gains or capital losses you make on those assets in your tax return.
            Additionally, if you have interests in a foreign company, a foreign trust or a foreign life insurance policy, you may have to include income you receive from these interests in your tax return.
            If you receive foreign income that is taxable in Australia and you paid foreign tax on that income, you may be entitled to an Australian foreign income tax offset.

            You might get to offset foreign tax you have paid, as an Australian resident you don't get to avoid paying Australian tax.

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