Anyone else looking at buying their first home, but just can't stomach paying the ridiculous asking prices?

I just want to get a sense to see if there are many others in a similar position?

We have money, we save and invest wisely. The deposit and repayments aren't an issue (for now), the problem is I just can't fathom the idea of dumping a decades worth of savings and investments into a single very overpriced asset.

I also hate the idea of taking out a million dollar loan which I then just give to someone else who just happened to be lucky enough to have been born a decade or two before me. Then I'm in debt for the next 30 years paying it off hoping and praying that the record low mortgage rate that we currently are experiencing remains and doesn't rise.

We could in theory keep a portion of our savings, and simply take out a cheap 1 or 2 bedroom apartment in an undesirable suburb - which in theory would be fine. BUT we're not keen on a cheaper apartment and I've seen first hand the absolutely horror of strata living with massive defect rectification bills, special levies out of no where, and stupid maintenance costs that I wouldn't incur if I had my own place as I'd do it myself. Also we consider the apartment market to be much much riskier than the freestanding house market.

Moving to a regional area is also out of the question due to the jobs my wife and I have, not to mention we'd also incur a lot of additional costs as we currently don't spend much in the way of transportation, but we would in a regional area.

It feels like we are backed into a corner with absolutely no way out.

I feel like it's affecting both of our mental health and we both feel pretty depressed over the whole thing. We're putting off kids because we can't raise them in a rental without any stability or certainty, and there would be the ever present threat of being forced to move and then what do you do with the kids school? It's just a multitude of potential problems.

We just feel totally burnt out and unhappy. How are other people coping with this shitty time?

Should we just bite the bullet and buy something, wasting our entire life savings and hope that everything is ok? Do we stick it out? Buy a cheap apartment and take all the risks that come with it?

Comments

  • +5

    I never thought I would ever pay over $1 million for a house, but I just have. Sydney of course. Trying to pick the market is a mugs game. I figure we are going to be in this house for at least 10 years so should be able to ride out any price volatility. In Sydney I don't see the value of houses (apartments maybe) falling anytime soon.

    We agreed a price on our place in December and I already reckon we would be paying at least $50k more now, probably more. It hadn't gone on the market yet and I feel ilke we got a very good deal when observing what everything else is selling for. The market is still flying and clearance rates are up around 80%.

    I do feel for people trying to get into the market and feel like telling my kids to get out of Sydney as soon as they can. Its overrated and overpriced, but we are settled here for now and have to live with it. We were able to get a better price than I ever expected on our previous home so that made this one possible. Far too many self interested people in government and media are there to ensure prices keep rising and they keep making money.

    There's a reason why property has its own section in newspapers (seriously, does this happen in any other nation?) and that is the huge revenue the property industry provides to the press - I read once its about 40% of their income and lets face it other sources are shrinking like their print circulation. The hysterical reaction to Labor's very sensible policy on negative gearing showed their true colours. They don't care about you or me, they only care that the value of their assets keeps rising and there are now enough average people exposed to property investment to make these scare campaigns effective.

  • +1

    Long-time follower and first-time poster…I agree with a lot of the general sentiment here about trying to 'get on the ladder' as it is so often referred to. I bought my first (truly appalling) flat in London in my mid 20s. It was so run down and grotesque I wouldn't actually let anyone come and visit. Over the next few years I cosmetically improved it and prices increased. I sold the flat and bought a run down 100 year old house that also took some work just to make it presentable. Met my partner and over the next few years we slowly renovated the property and started a family. I remember that when our first child was born we actually had no proper kitchen nor floors at the back of the house. We just got on with it and muddled along. We emigrated to Australia (rented for 5 years) and once we had decided to settle sold the house in London and bought a property in Melbourne (that also needed work doing to it…). Each time I have sold a property to move on, the reality is that I would not have been able to afford to buy that property at the current market value. So, one thing I have learnt is that historically property always seems to increase in value. This is true of our current house that we bought six years ago - we would struggle to buy it now. I do not consider myself a savvy investor or speculator, just someone that was fortunate to buy a first property at a time when it was (just about) affordable albeit a rundown shabby flat. Each time I have bought a property I have effectively cashed-up the existing owner who has benefited from the increased value. Finally, the other thing we have noticed about buyers (certainly in the Melbourne area) is that they often turn their noses up at old style or run down places and these get snapped up by investors. We lived in a building site with 3 children under the age of 4 and somehow we managed. It was all we could afford and I was saving money by doing most of the work…wouldn't say it was an ideal life but it's paid off now.

    • +4

      Property is not marked to market like shares etc, so small changes in value go unnoticed as the only time it is properly valued is when you buy and when you sell. Over time of course prices will usually rise and given the infrequent valuations an illusion is formed that prices always go up. If you ignored the value of a share portfolio for 10 years and then sold it it would probably look like a no lose bet too.

      Costs are never factored into this. Stamp duty (nearly $50k on our most recent purchase), interest and of course maintenance, insurance, rates, utilities, improvements, renovations etc. Its not such a goldmine when all this is factored in but it is a form of forced saving that works well for many people.

  • I'm was the same situation, Although my partner and I never plan on having kids which makes renting for the rest of our lives not such a huge deal.

    I looked into buying an apartment, house and holiday house but after 6 months of research came to the conclusion that it just isn't worth the risk. We decided to rent forever where we want to live and live a decent life instead of putting all our money towards a house which would greatly reduce our quality of life and have us penny pinching for 20+ years during the best years of our lives.

    The only ways this may change in the future is if a drastic change happens which will make buying a house realistic, my relatives die and leave us some inheritance or even their property, or we just save/invest and only buy somewhere away from the city when we are both ready to retire…

    We are also looking into the idea of finding a long term 5+ year rental and possibly even pay several years rent upfront to not have the worry of having to move so often too.

    • +1

      As a homeowner (and landlord) I agree that renting is the smarter financial thing to do today.

      However, you can't underestimate the benefits of having the security of your own house, it's unfortunate that it costs so much.

      Hope you find a long term lease.

  • Until people stop wanting to live in Sydney or Melbourne, I'm skeptical about whether prices will ever go down.

    Is it possible the demand from both locals and foreigners may be too high for a crash to ever occur?

    • +3

      Yes. Tokyo property 'crashed' after the 1990s, but never got cheap. It just went from stupidly, insanely inexpensive to a level like Sydney in 2014, just ridiculous.
      The government there through everything at holding the economy together, with the result that they have extremely high government debt. In their case, the lenders to the government are the savings of the Japanese people, they have little external debt.
      The result is they have a bit of a closed system, so they have so far been able to ride out this high level of debt.
      It has made it difficult for their export businesses to compete as well as they would have been able to otherwise, leading to a pretty stagnant economy.

      Australia owes the vast amount of both government debt (which isn't actually that big) and private debt (which is eye wateringly large due to our way of funding mortgages) overseas. We will have to wait and see how this pans out.

      • Yeah, I heard greedy cashed up baby boomers buying multiple investment properties are also to blame for making the prices skyrocket out of reach of first home buyers :/

        • +3

          Baby boomers have certainly captured the lion share of the financial benefit from extreme house price growth.
          And they are the most vocal opponent to raining in tax concessions like the 50% CGT discount (why should a passive investor pay less tax than an active worker on the same amount of financial gain?) or negative gearing.
          But there are plenty of people from other generations contributing to the problem, as you can see in this discussion, where there seems to be a religious level of belief that in the long term you can't lose on property.
          True, I guess, but as Keynes said, in the long term we're all dead, and if price growth stalls at these rich valuations, investors will have terrible investments that act as a mill stone around their necks, and first home buyers will be locked into decades of high repayments that remain a burden thanks to low inflation.

          Note that for that miserable outcome to happen, no crash is required, just price growth below CPI. There seems to be a dichotomy assuming the only alternative to 18% (!!!) annual growth is a crash, but assuming the government can keep the wheels on, a much more likely outcome is stagnant growth. Run the numbers on a Sydney investment property over 20 years with growth at 1% and it looks like a very bad investment.

          I don't see any evidence there is income growth coming to drive further price growth. Even if there was a law that said no new houses or apartments could be built, and we continued high immigration until there were 3 families for every existing property, it still wouldn't let prices double, because even if faced with homelessness, because you can't pay more in a mortgage than you earn in a month.

        • +1

          @mskeggs: The only thing likely to cause a crash would be a big increase in unemployment, and that doesn't look likely. Stagnant growth would be best for all concerned to allow incomes to gradually catch up and things to normalise a bit. Its all very well celebrating profits but where does it leave our kids?

          As you say, income growth is almost non existent. Interest rates can't really get much lower. Therefore we have to be getting close to a point where growth will have to slow or stop for a while.

      • Actually Japan (Tokyo, for example) nowadays has very reasonable residential property prices.

        Gross yields > 5%, depending on whose data we take.

        https://www.google.com.au/search?q=tokyo+rental+yields

        Check some apartment prices - you may be shocked!

        Also see: http://infographics.economist.com/2015/globalhpi_20150415/

  • +3

    I have this conversation multiple times with different people. I wonder "is it necessary to buy a property?" if you think it's not a good investment. I used to live in Europe, and a lot of people lives on rent. I was lucky to buy a property few years ago when the price was still very reasonable. But if i was a first home owner, i wouldn't dump millions into property right now. Rental yield in decent suburbs is 2-3%, why would you want to buy now? Renting is far better off.

  • +1

    Bought for the first time in 2011 when we started a family - inner city Sydney. A run down apartment but in a great area with access to an attic space. Renovated over the next few years and now we have enough space for the 4 of us. Sure, still nothing fancy and no real garden or balconies but all the wonderful Sydney parks and harbour beaches are nearby. We got almost gazumped when we bought (costed us an extra $8k) and I was furious about it at the time. But once added to the mortgage, the reality is it makes hardly any difference.

    Lessons learned:
    - You'll always feel you're spending too much when you first buy a place.
    - Don't consider a price fixed until contracts are signed.
    - When buying a place that can be extended, check out your council's website for similar DAs in your street and any conditions set.
    - If you've got your eyes set on a place that needs work done, you often face less competition. However, renovations tend to cost a lot more than what you originally thought or got quoted.

    At the end of the day, buying is a risk and an opportunity at the same time. To me the risk is more short time and the opportunity long term. As long as you can afford the mortgage even when interest rates were to double, it doesn't really matter what the price was 5 years ago or if you expect house prices to drop or rise over the next 5 years.

    My greatest comforts, since we've finished our renovations:
    - We know we can afford what we've bought and only interest rates will vary our monthly repayments.
    - We have enough bedrooms (still a small space) not to ever have to move again.
    - The place has been renovated to our taste.

  • at the end of the day. it is a market. just like everything else.

    do badly at school and uni, you won't get an investment banker job earning $80k as a grad. but there are other options. tradies earn heaps more than office workers.

    never spend practicing a skill, you will never master it.

    never live with a goal to save money and take risk buying a first affordable property and grow your assets from there, a house with yard will never happen in your life.

    the reality is, a lot of those buying $1m-$4m houses out there, they already have existing assets. otherwise you'd have to be earning >$500k a year for a bank to lend you $2m. these people started somewhere. so first home buyers must also start somewhere, unless your parents are in the top 100 richest list :)

  • +2

    18= 14 + 4. Private debt as a percentage of GDP is through the roof. Unsustainable transient economics causing short-term artificial economic growth. Mortgage fraud is prevalent because people are too lazy to check their papers. Immigration and foreign buyers do nothing to help the problem (in fact, are a source). Yeah, I think I'll pass for now.

    It just depends, are you willing to put up for possibly the next 8 years or so, being called a fool for not investing? Because recessions are always inevitable, a sentiment only augmented by our current economic and housing state. Be patient I say, the time will come when you will get a good deal, and not having to put up with the current garbage.

    The real issue of all this roots deeper. It's unsustainable economics from the major parties of government, obsessed with surplus and deficit and short-term goals, wanting to secure their voter base. So they paper over the cracks this way instead of developing a sustainable solution.

  • Lots of people want the live in London.. but the can't afford to buy a house.. just like any other city in the world.. motto is.. first in best dressed is the old saying.. and bad luck.. just have to find some other place that's more affordable.. or just rent .. forget about entitlement.

  • +3

    To at least help in one area….Kids are incredibly flexible in regards to where they are brought up and where they live. There is no reason that not owning your own place should have any impact on how they are raised. As long as you are good parents and you can afford them, you could raise them in a tent.
    They do need more stability as they progress though school, but even if you were forced to move a couple of times, it's not something that will have a lasting impact. And that is all a decade from now, so you have time to get yourself sorted.
    The main reason for not having kids….is kids :P
    Also, (sorry for the potential for added stress) biologically 35 is the age for women that risk factors for pregnancy/conception start increasing dramatically (my wife is a doctor). So in a perfect world you want to get going before that.

  • +2

    Some interesting facts. It's more expensive to buy a property in Sydney and Melbourne than it is New York and Los Angeles.
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-houses-are-so-seve…
    http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf

    We just feel totally burnt out and unhappy. How are other people coping with this shitty time?

    There's plenty and there are more that are worse. You've got a secure job. Your financial pressures have not created marital issues. You're not stuck in an interest only home loan and forever paying the bank with little improvement in equity.

  • +1

    I don't know about all these facts and figures the media telling people there is going to be a property price drop/economy burst/disaster/end of the world fear factor stories, all I can say living in this planet for 38 years in two different country all I can see is only one thing prices of goods and property inflated several folds.

    Well its several hundred folds for my parents time as I remember my mum telling me ice balls (a.k.a ice cream) cost only 5 cents when she was a kid lol.

    I am no expert in predicting how the economy is going to shape in the near future but one thing for sure even if it does goes down it will always go up after that same goes with the price of houses which can only go up…..in the long run.

    If anyone is expecting to wait for a price drop like some ebay sale CYBER 20% off deal will probably most likely would not own a unit/house in the long term as its like waiting to win a lotto. The fact is …this is Australia (the only western country in the asian region) and in Sydney there will be always people pouring in and the demand will be filled up and shortages of houses? no problem there are always units out there to be bought up…

    People believe that there has to be a price stop somewhere when it gets too high, guess what it will never happen as the designers/architect of this lending money scheme will continue to make people owe money as long as it takes until a point where ownership can never happen in a life time and the people will work their entire life to survive or worse their kinship to continue the burden.

    Soon after that when the population gets out of control then money comes in again to prolong life to increase time in a lifespan, all of these has been calculated and predicted and even some of these ideas are even made into movies just to let people know its going to happen.

    This is just what I have learn after living in two countries.
    (Note does not apply to the general people but more on the people I have meet or seen)

    Asian Migrant Mentality - We must have kids regardless of how hard our lifestyle is going to be, at least 2, one is going to be lonely
    Etc Migrant - Lets breed like rabbits, the more the merrier
    Western Mentality - Why should we have kids when there are millions of kids starving around the world, why can't we adopt? no way its going to ruin our lifestyle, We better not as the kids are not going to have a good life in the current world we are in.

    To everyone who is planning a family: THis is true to anyone, please do not have kids if you are not ready to give them love, protection and and good life that is the no.1 rule)

  • @OP yes exactly, couldn't of said it better myself.

    Just can't do it

  • In the same boat, and as if paying the ridiculous prices were not bad enough, the thought of having to fork out almost double the cost of the cost in interest repayments anyway just takes the cake. I do not want to join in for those two reasons.

  • In these threads the OP always seem to miss two key points:

    1. It is called a property LADDER for a reason! ie. the first place you buy really won't be your dream home. It'll be what you can afford, and maybe in 10 or 15 years time you can look at an upgrade when you have paid a big chunk of the mortgage off and maybe you'll be better off financially than you think.

    2. Relates to point 1. "Buy what you can afford" - This means if you can't afford an inner city suburb, move out to where you can. Yeah you might think you'll pay more in transport etc. but really you won't, you'll save far more money on your mortgage, but you will "pay" in commute time, but get used to it, these are the sacrifices you have to make. If you can't afford a free standing house, get a flat/apartment etc. It isn't forever, hopefully if you get something small, it'll be cheap and could be a less than 10 year proposition until you upgrade. I'm not saying buy a shoe box, I'm not saying to live a 90 minute commute from work, but these are the levers you have to work with in the current environment, deal with it.

    • +1

      In these threads there are always comments that miss the key difference that in current times prices have become unhinged.
      There was a story in the SMH this week showing the cheapest house sold in Sydney in 2016. It was an unliveable wreck in a far west suburb that has security issues with no bathroom and walls missing the gyprock. It was $350,000.
      For people who have a normal job ($80k p.a.) that is pricey, for the 50% of working people in Sydney earning less than the median income it is very costly. And remember that incomes rise over your life, so those disproportionately on lower incomes will be younger people buying their first home.
      And this was the cheapest house in the whole city!

      The property prices have detached so far from reality the old saws of start modest and move up don't work for huge portions of our community.

      • +1

        I haven't missed anything. Talking about how prices are sky high due to market forces doesn't help the OP one bit in actually getting into property if they want to. But if they do want to get in, these are the two basic levers to utilize. Otherwise wait it out and see what happens. Even if a correction of 20% occured which would be considered a "crash" i think the OP would still think their dream home is too expensive or would be writing a thread saying they are too scared to buy in a falling market etc.

    • +1

      I love the insanity of suggestions like this.

      Don't buy where you want to live, get "on the ladder" somewhere crap and then upgrade in future.

      Let me run the numbers for you:

      1. Basic apartment in suburb you want to live: $750K.
      2. Basic apartment in suburb you don't want to live: $350K.

      You save $400K by living somewhere crap. Nice work!

      10 years later, property bubble still hasn't burst. So 100% growth in both prices (generous assumption, because without exception the non-crap areas have appreciated faster in our bubble-times).

      1. Basic apartment in suburb you want to live: $1.5M.
      2. Basic apartment in suburb you don't want to live: $700K.

      Now you're $800k away from where you actually want to live, not $400K.

      Explain how exactly "getting on the ladder" here has helped you? Apart from adding 2 hours to your daily commute and costing you a social life.

      • +1

        You miss a key point, a lot of people can't even afford the basic apartment in the suburb they want to live in. So what do they do? They sit on the sidelines and watch house prices rise further, then all of a sudden those crappier suburbs they could have lived in are now a bit more desirable then they were 5 years ago because now they are just out of reach of what you could afford and the cycle continues. Just buy in the suburb over from where you are looking now, probably 10%-20% cheaper but at least you are in and building your equity. I'm not saying live 2 hours away from where you are, but buy what you can afford.

        • +2

          "then all of a sudden those crappier suburbs they could have lived in are now a bit more desirable then they were 5 years ago"

          So a crap distant suburb becomes desirable simply by dint of a sufficient number of heavily indebted people bidding prices up?

          That's absurd. It doesn't become desirable. It's​ just more expensive. It remains a crap suburb far from your job & social life. Geography is immutable.

        • @z0s0:

          Not all suburbs are equal. In 5 years, there are plenty of suburbs that are better than they were before. Look at Caroline Springs and places out that way, year on year they get more desirable. I'm not talking 50kms from the CBD, i'm talking 10 to 20km for Melb/Syd. They are getting better all the time.

          But this argument is all relative. If you don't want to live over 10km's away from your work or whatever, then it doesn't matter if the place was 11km's or 50km's away and getting better, you still won't like it.

          Let me put it this way for you since you are from Melbourne. 10 years ago most people didn't want to live in Brunswick because it was dingy, run down, and the back end of it (up to Moreland Road) was considered ages away from the CBD. Now young people clamor to live there. Why? Because the area has gotten a lot better given all the café, restaurants, nightlife apartments etc. Same for neighboring suburbs like Coburg, even 5 years ago young people didn't want to live past Bell St. Now it is acceptable because Coburg has more interesting things their these days. To sit there and say that suburbs don't improve over time and that crap ones become good is narrow minded.

        • @serpserpserp:

          You make some valid points here; but I am addressing the crux of your initial argument, which was:

          "It is called a property LADDER for a reason! ie. the first place you buy really won't be your dream home. It'll be what you can afford, and maybe in 10 or 15 years time you can look at an upgrade when you have paid a big chunk of the mortgage off and maybe you'll be better off financially than you think."

          My counter to this is that anyone who takes this advice cannot possibly get closer to their "dream home" by doing so.

          Their ability to take on more debt as their income grows will not match the (historical) rate of price appreciation that they missed by instead buying "what they could afford". Additionally, the rate of capital appreciation of what they did buy will almost certainly lag behind that of their "dream home" - which leaves them even further away.

          So, by all means, if buying property is so important to these people, then they need to buy whatever it is they can afford even though they don't want to live there. But they ought not be under the illusion that doing so will bring them closer to the home that they would actually like to live in.

          Or, they could conclude that this situation looks and smells like a bubble, and choose not to participate in it and enjoy heavily subsidised rents thanks to the myriad tax distortions offered to keep it thus.

        • @z0s0:

          Of course what I say is not a one size fits all approach, but for many people, if they continue to rent, they will not invest or save wisely (perhaps might not have the means) and will continue to never own property and may never even afford to be able to rent their dream home. Lets say you rent a place for $600 a week but struggle to save much money at all but have a deposit/stamp duty etc. you could move into something a little smaller, a little further out and pay the same amount of money on a mortgage. Even if it was only P&I flat you'd build around 10% equity in your property in the first 5 years of owning it (assuming you do a 10% deposit). So at least in 5 years you have 20% equity in property, possibly more if you work hard at it. What will you have in 5 years time renting and barely saving? You might have enough for a deposit on a place, or you might be even further behind getting into property.

          The above advice is only for people that WANT to get into property. If you are happy renting and waiting for a the bubble to pop than go for it. But even if there was a bursting of the bubble in say 5 years, would a 20% reduction in prices get you into your dream home still? Probably not. You have to work at things, not just hope for prices to go down. Even if property crashes you still won't be able to buy your dream home in Richmond/Kew/Carlton/Brighton etc. They will all still be very very expensive!

        • @serpserpserp:

          Your points in this comment are roughly akin to saying "if you spend all your money and don't save/invest then you'll wake up in 10 years with no assets".

          True indeed, that. Not really relevant at all to my point, though.

          For people who "WANT to get into property" then, yes, they need to do what you advise.

          But there is no rational reason for those people wanting to "get into property" when it has no chance of landing them the home they actually want to live in (for the reasons I have repeatedly explained). They should save and invest wisely, of course, but rationally it should be in other asset classes.

          Nothing rational about property and bubbles, of course, so here we all are.

        • @z0s0:

          No that is exactly relevant to your point:

          "My counter to this is that anyone who takes this advice cannot possibly get closer to their "dream home" by doing so."

          Yes, if they buy a property they can afford, they can build equity, more likely in 10 years they'll be in a better financial position for the average punter.

          You say: "They should save and invest wisely, of course, but rationally it should be in other asset classes."

          Yes a text book approach here, but a lot of people don't know how to invest properly and just saving their money in a bank earning not much in interest isn't going to get people into the house of their dreams either.

          Even people in the 70s buying their first home would have hardly called the one they bought their "dream home" and there was no issue with property prices then. Bubble or not, good economy or bad, if people want to buy a house they settle on what they can afford and what people can afford is very very often not where their "dream home" or "location" might be.

        • @serpserpserp:

          Or, they could live somewhere they actually want to live by renting, and invest the money saved in a less bubble prone, more diversified set of assets.

          Both result in them improving their financial position over your 10 year horizon - only one of them requires them to live in a crap suburb and spend hours stuck in traffic or packed trains.

          Horses for courses, hey.

        • @z0s0:

          They could do that, but as I said, most people have no idea how to invest and if you think equities is safer than houses, well if there is a bubble here in housing, it'll surely wipe out the equities market pretty badly.

          But hey, you can spend all your money on rent living in the house of your dreams too, I guess it all depends if you want to plan for the future/retirement/your family, I'd like to get to 60 and not have to pay for any accommodation rent or mortgage, at least this way I probably have a chance at doing it.

        • @serpserpserp:

          "Most people have no idea how to invest", you say.

          I'd agree wholeheartedly with that; and it neatly explains why so many people are desperate to - as you also say - "get into property".

          I think we've covered all the necessary ground here. Thanks :-)

  • Hi, I think it all depends on your situation and how much you're willing to spend on the property. I never thought Sydney prices can ever go up to $million. I was worried price will crash back in 2006/2007 and didn't buy earlier until 2011 (sure my property had more than doubled since then). Even when I purchased back in 2011 I was worried that prices will drop as rent yield does not justify the prices. No one will know whether property will go up or down next but like other asset classes, over a long period of time e.g. 20 years, you will not lose out (due to inflation etc).

    Sure, prices can't go up like this forever but that does not mean prices will crash. You may feel that property prices are crazy (I think so too!) and who else can afford to buy - but somehow there are people who are richer than you and can afford to buy.

    I would say if you can afford to buy (and never over-extended), you should consider getting one and look over long term. You should not borrow excessively and have some good buffer in your offset account (just so that you are not pressured to sell during downturn if it actually happen).

    Hope this help.

  • I sympathize with your situation.

    A friend of mine bought in Strathfield recently, he paid 690k for a tiny and old 2 bedroom unit in a three storey apartment building with 1 car park and only common open space.

    You could possibly move to another state.

    In Melbourne you can buy a new 3 bedroom house on a 600sqm block in Melton for only 350k, and from there it's 40 mins to the CBD on the train. It's not a desirable place to live, but the price isnt so outrageous.

  • Come to Brisbane.

    Fear, regret, resentment will not get you far.

    If you worrying about the same thing over and over than you gotta make some hard "changes".

    You never know what's better around the corner until you get to that corner.

    Good luck!

  • +5

    So many comments.
    So many long comments.

    My solution was to turn to drink.
    Not quite working out as well as i'd hoped.

  • Buy to live, don't even think about how much equity you will have in the next 2 - 3 years.

    I am from WA, I think the age of property flipping in WA is truely gone by now.

    So:
    1. Buy to live;
    2. Have to be able to afford repayment with single income with 2 kids;
    3. Your mortgage repayments + outgoings should be more or less what you would have paid in rent at todays' rent market (which is quite low);
    4. Once you have considered the above, you wont really care whether the house price is yoyo'ing.

    Once you have enough money and ability to pay, and you feel like you are ready to step up and buy a more expensive house.

    Your next house price will be irrelevant, if you home value dropped by $100k, that means the market in general has dropped that much and the next house that you will be looking next is down by at least that much as well, I say this because when you buy your next place, you will most likely trade up. If your affordable home is down by 100k, the more expensive area will generally suffer more losses.

    NEVER OVERSTRETCH

  • Hi, very interesting conversation. I wanted to add my 2c. Property prices have increased by large amounts over the last 25ish years mostly because of 4 things. (1) the second adult of the house hold working (having a career) so households have more money to make competitive offers for houses (2) the large increase in Super funds having money to invest in property (since the law was passed that all employer's need to pay their employees a Super component) (3) Chinese nationals taking their money out of China away from their communist government (4) a period of cheap overseas money for banks leading to relaxed lending laws from the 80s onwards (when you strictly needed a 20% deposit etc.)

    There are probably many other contributing factors that I have probably missed.

    About getting screwed over. Every generation leaves some great legacies (freedom because of sacrifice in WW2 and 1, contributions from medicine). In some ways each generation screws over the next (maybe us with climate change). From an individual perspective, people get screwed by their employers through ignorance or after buying a second hand car that breaks down. We bought a house about 4 years ago when the market in Adelaide was slow, we were able to get our 1920s bungalow 2mins from the CBD for $40k below asking (around 600k). Adelaide caught up to the buzz in the eastern states 6months later and in 1.5 yrs the value had gone up 100k and has kept on steadily increasing since. (Did we screw them over?) Will 3 months after buying, we were doing some painting and happened upon a support beam that had been eaten out by white ants, that beam supported half our house. It was covered up by some expander foam and painted over. We found a lot more damage and $60k later it was all fixed up and behind us. So they screwed us over? Yes, but we tried a few things to get some of that money back (like going to the builder inspection company, pest inspection company, realestate agent etc) in the end it was going to cost us more emotionally (and probably financially​ if we lost) to go through the process and the fact that the property went up in value helped us a bit too come to terms with it. $60k was our hard earnings we kept aside for a runny day and didn't put into the property. This helped us see that money isn't everything and relationships and emotional stability etc. Are more important.

    I know how hard it is to agonise over a very large financial decisions. Just make sure you can make the repayments with the changes of life when you have babies(we have just had one of our own it is tuff to manage work childcare and part time work), go buy a home or rent, but don't regret either valid option. It will eat you up inside. In the end family trumps money everytime.

    • +3

      Your comments about building inspections are interesting. I noticed when buying a place recently that the disclaimers are longer than the actual reports. Another absolute rort along with the private health fund system.

  • -1

    ….

  • +4

    All the things you aspire to in your post are over-rated. No need to be so depressed.

  • -8

    Grow up, stop whining. Either be in the system or be out of it, but stop whining.

  • +1

    Yes yes its like a game, imagine yourself in Diablo 3 starting off in beginners mode with all the crappy equipment and when you complete the game you feel great however there are another 10 or 15 torment settings that you can go through.

    Just need to level up man :)

  • +1

    From my understanding, after the 2008 crisis of sub-prime mortgage , the banking sector reforms have allowed the banks to show the mortgage loan as accounts recievable in the books which is an asset like a deposit. Banks have stopped relying on the deposits and are heavily depending on the giving out loans at an accelerating pace to show growth in their books. The more long term loans they give out, the stronger they look in their books, the more profit they show. This is a very unsustainable model for banking because it assumes that people never pay off the loan and if they do, they are in a loss. This puts the bank in a very risky position over a longer term and a lot of first home buyers are going to get burnt if they enter into the market late. I am not sure what stage this market is in and what future policies the government is going to come up with and how far they are going to go to keep all this up, but the outcome will eventually depend on those factors. Also a big factor is how the Chinese Communist Party will tackle the capital outflow from their country, which they eventually would crack down upon but the market depends on many variables and it is seems like a very risky and a high stakes bet.

  • +1

    or the ridiculous stamp duty for which you can buy a house in another country. I say stay away from property
    Will this single factor trigger Australian property decline?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afWsgTcLN9M

  • +2

    If you're waiting to buy because of a massive dip in prices. Contact me in 5 - 10 years and let me know how that works out for you.

  • I struggled to buy my first home (crappy 2 bed unit): spent $$ and time fixing it up. Sold for about the same as a had spent on it, BUT lived in it for 6 yrs free of rent, while building up my inventory of tools, household commodities etc. from just one bed.
    Then moved to an outskirts, built a place on it (much of it own labour) while commuting to full time work. Kids loved "the farm" (5 acres). Total cost incl land over 25 years $60K. VG's UCV now $380K (+ improvements replacement costs of $70K)
    Moral of the story is that the land WILL improve in value over time, so as ridiculous as it may sound, the $M you pay today will probably be way WAY more when you retire/sell.
    The Rule of 72 says that the number of years it will take for an asset to double in value is 72 divided by the interest rate (eg: at 4% it will double in value in 18yrs, 9%in 8yrs and so on). Do your research and work out the reasonable average overall rate of house price inflation to see how soon your future house will double in value. (Tax free)
    Then go and buy your home

  • -2

    yes i dont want to buy, i think that it will even out for the next 5 years.

    If anyone has been watching, the Australian dollar has strengthened against the green back. This means that Chinese investors won’t be able to funnel as much into the market, especially if it reaches parity. The RBA in America has also hinted at 2-3 more rate rises apart from the ones this week which would future add to this. I will note that Syd and Melb are recording very high action clearance rates, I would say people are trying to get out of the market and selling cheaply to avoid whats coming, and over supply is finally a big big problem.

    So no I say lets just wait it out.

  • +4

    We just purchased our house. Live in Cairns. Life is awesome. The price was mid-$400K and we got an amazing 3 bed 2 bath house with a beautiful backyard established rainforest garden + pool, 300m from the beach.

    Don't live in Sydney or Melbourne.

    • +4

      hows the job market?

      • +2

        Wife and I are medicals (doctor + nurse). No issue for us. Not sure about the rest.

        • +5

          you could have stayed in sydney and been just fine with a 5milion dollar house………..

        • @T1OOO: and paying it down for the rest of our lives

        • @blergmonkeys:

          Drs make a million a year plus so ud b right.

        • +1

          @T1OOO: lol I wish

        • I'm guessing not everyone has the same jobs as you so probably doesn't help much

    • +1

      Here's a plethora of houses in around and under 100k.
      http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/between-0-100000-in-whyalla…

      $250k will get you a new house, and even an indoor pool.

      600m bike ride to work. Beach walks for me and the dog after work, might drop the jetski in for a quick splash/ catch a snapper and couple of blue crabs out the back or maybe a paddleboard along the coast with the dolphins. A quick down winder on the kiteboard if the breeze it up.

      Jobs are here…but obviously mining employment is far more competitive.

      Downside, 1 hr regional flight to an international airport. 5 hrs from the nearest snowfields (all of which you can take a few times a year from mortgage savings).

      Honestly, if houses were free in Sydney I wonder how many people outside of Sydney would take them up. Place is ok to visit… but drive anywhere/ to work…pass!

      How would I go leaving all my gear and the dog running along the shore on the beach while I go for a quite paddle along Bondi?

      Don't really understand the appeal.

      My advice, hit up the career section for places you can get work, grab a house from AirBNB etc in these places and spend a week there. Repeat.

      • +3

        Look mate, I've looked up seek.com.au, IT jobs in Whyalla & Eyre Peninsula SA and it returned 0. This means my family's borrowing capacity in Whyalla is 0, whereas in the city like Sydney or Melbourne, it's crap but better than 0.

        • Whyalla just shut the steel mill and porta gutter killed its power plan. Zero jobs. The it jobs are at head office in adelaide. I used to work for one.

        • Yeah, Fair enough. Trades are flat out but IT would be limited to gov jobs. No idea what income you are on, but almost every school in town is looking for an IT person. No idea what they pay either.

        • @T1OOO:

          Steel mill is still operating, but in administration pending a new owner. Ore price doubling has helped

          But steel making times are over. Time to make it an army hub (plenty of vacant land out there for war games) aquaculture, beach, dolphin and cuttlefish diving tourist stop. Could also build mirror energy farms..and send off some ore if needed.

  • +2

    Interestingly i attended a property club talk a few weeks back which they have a sort of piramid style
    hierarchy with tax benefit/legal invasion scheme but its not the talk that got me interested, its the speaker who is telling us hes got 100plus properties in Australia and the founder 1000plus properties.

    Imagine one person owning 100 plus or worse 1000 plus properties. How in the world did this happen, is there such a big loop hole for someone to use over and over again for such a long period of time.

    It really amazed me when this bloke passes away leaving 1000 plus property to the next kin……

    • +3

      Investor should only be allow to have one investment properties, any more should inclur huge tax.
      Government is just terrible, what that joking treasurer name who told everyone to move to Tamworth.
      What move to Tamworth and go visit centrelink.

    • Sucked in to this guy. 1 investment property is stressful enough. Even if you pay someone to manage it, you still need to verify each cost item or get exploited. There are some shocker property managers out there..it would consume you…good luck with that strategy..

  • +4

    I'll tell you my story.

    I got my first corporate job in 2007 (20yo) in a call centre $40k. 2008 was the GFC, i moved out of home and started renting. 2009 came, interest rates were 7-8%. I scraped whatever i could, poured my entire life savings in and barely bought a property (3br) for $410k cause i was sick of paying someone elses mortgage. i had to go half half with my sister on mortgage/bills just to live.. it was a very very tough time… 2010 came, my siblings and i bought our parents a house $411k. I also met my girlfriend in 2010. we got engaged in 2011 (ring $18k), this same year i doubled my income (second corporate job $110k). in same year, we bought our 2nd property (investment #1) for $310k using equity from 1st. 2013 we got married (wedding cost $60k) wife had a property so we now together we have 3 propertys. 2014 came and we bought our 4th property (investment #2) $660k mainly to negatively gear my income - now $180k. 2015 came.. saw 12% growth so we used the equity (again from the 1st), took out 100k and travelled the world (6cont/26countr) for a year whilst servicing all our loans including my parents. Best. Decision. Ever. 2016 came.. prices still crazy. so we went out and upgraded to a $120k family car. its now 2017 and we're thinking of selling everything to fund one fully paid property and be financially (mortgage) free. in a few months time i turn 30.

    the point of my whole story is that, the right time is now. it is the present. the right time is whenever you have the opportunity to make the decision, then do it. i believe that it's the lack of indecision that hurts people. you have to make decisions, rightly or wrongly, they are still decisions. whatever happens, i believe that after you make your first 'big' decision, life has a way of enabling you with the confident and courage to plunge into the next decision. and the next one. that's how it's worked out for me. try and not think too much, they call that analysis paralysis. think about what is important for you and your partner. life, career, travel, goals, and make decisions when life presents the opportunity to make them. I wish you all the best OP.

    • -1

      good job! this is something critical that not a lot of people are unhappy to face in their 20's and insist on their morning avo spread breakfast and latte for $20 and after work drinks for $30 a day:

      " i had to go half half with my sister on mortgage/bills just to live.. it was a very very tough time…"

    • Hi nadstar, just want to say great job, from 20 to 30, you have done extremely well.

    • Why sell everything and be financially mortgage free?
      If you have assets, then shouldn't you leverage those assets and buy more property? And keep growing your portfolio ?
      Question if I may, which surburbs were your investments?
      I invested interstate (QLD) which didn't do as well :(

  • No one especially an OzBargainer wants to pay more than they have to but as people mention even over years, it obviously isn't that predictable with the constant predictions of crashing or flatlining.
    So if you are looking for a home then I'd recommend just going in now; a place you like, a place you can afford with the usual buffers, a place you can stay for decades of needed (e.g. rooms for the planned kids) and the big one, accept it as a home, rather than investment.

    I bought a few years ago and just shake my head at how society will become with how housing has become this abused investment cash cow. Paper wealth all the way as a ponzi scheme as the capital gain comes from another sucker paying more, who hopes later someone else does the same. In the meanwhile robs disposable income from other parts of the economy like shops or investing in companies that actually produce shit, not just literally sit there. Anyway sorry got ranting … with my place, I am not fussed if it doesn't grow in value, because I have no plans to sell it for gains; it's my home.

    • if it goes up in value then you can re-finance and use equity to go on that holiday or get that car you always wanted. A lot cheaper than credit card or any other finance out there (if that your game)

  • +3

    I solved this problem by giving up on having a family, children and a house and I am spending most of my money on hedonistic pursuits and hoping something will hit me at a very high speed about age seventy.

    If I could afford a house, I would rethink all of this. Completely. But I don't want to have to yell at my kids for drawing on the walls because I fear a landlord. I never had that problem and I don't plan to pass it down.

    • +2

      LOL!!!!!! live hard die young, the chris farley way!

  • Suggest plotting a chart for Money Supply against Real Estate Prices

  • +3

    Here's the thing, people. I bought myself a rare Yugioh card 10 years ago for $10. People were saying I'm crazy. Crazy, they said. But according to my analysis and the market around Yugioh cards around that time and expected in the future, it should go up. Because Yugioh rare card prices always go up. It's a rule. The people saying the Yugioh bubble will pop eventually, but I still bought that yugioh card.

    Fast forward to the present, I sold my rare Yugioh card for $20. Because of one successful example, I will now advise everyone that buying Yugioh cards is the best investment choice for anyone in their 20s-30s. No amount of realistic arguments will change my mind. Anyone who says otherwise is stupid and did not do the math.

    The best time to buy a Yugioh card is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

    • How high are you lol

    • The logic checks out!

  • Good question and same discussion.

    I'm exactly in the same position as you are and must agree that I’m stressed too because of the pressure from the family to buy a house. Have money for a deposit, but feel the house prices are overpriced. However when I say that I'm still not clear what price is the right price!

    My projections would say, in a 25-year timeline, the prices are going to be much higher. But in a smaller window of time, say within the next 5 years, you would be able to buy the house much cheaper than what it is now. The reasons for this are well researched and discussed on the internet forums.

    Given the above context, my investment hat says, I should wait since it’s a one time buy. But my family hat knows that this decision will only come with a huge personal cost .

    I feel that the crazy house price should not impact your ability to live a healthy and balanced life. Your decision to have kids or a place to live should be your choice and should not be dependent on the house price. I'd suggest you do your calculation and make an informed decision based on the available options present at a point in time.

    Many of these investment decisions we make are based on our own greed and fear. However, if you can keep your emotions out, identify the reasons for the decisions, the risks involved and not just follow the market, I’m sure you will come out on top.

    Good luck with your house purchase!

  • The current real estate market is a free market and solely dependent on the market forces of supply and demand. Many people may argue foreign funding is fuelling the demand curve, while may have some effect, it is because of immigration and foreign investment that Australia has enjoyed a 25 year recession free economy. De-welling prices has not been such a hot topic when wage growth was steady in the prosperous times of the economy. I just believe the current excessive coverage of the housing affordability issue in the media is a marketing tool i mean people enjoy reading articles that impose the image that they may just be a property millionaire. The state government is also unlikely to implement any policies aimed at refraining house prices because in FY16 NSW government received 6.3 billion dollars from stamp duty of residential property alone. I personally believe the most effective tool to stabilise a bullish real estate market is to introduce tougher guidelines in the finance sector that thoroughly assess the burrowing capacity investors. At the some time first home owners should be able to access additional government assistance.

  • where do u live at the moment?

  • In all probability, those people who "were lucky enough to be born a decade earlier" also paid a large percentage of their take home salary to buy the home, particularly early on. Prices increase and they often reap the benefit of buying a home, when they sell. You're in exactly the same boat. If you buy now, your property should be worth many times what you pay for it, when you sell. Thus, you reap the benefit. Sounds like you want someone to sell their house to you at a cheap price (and forgo their capital gain) so you can achieve a greater capital gain in the future. Why should they? Just buy the house you want, pay it off and enjoy life in the suburb of your choosing.

  • +4

    Great discussion and as someone who is looking to buy in Sydney at the moment it resonates. The question in my mind though is that will the perception of apartments have to change in capital cities?

    As someone who was born in Europe (Germany) and lived there until teenage years, to me apartments were completely normal to live in and raise a family in. I think that the case in most large European cities. I don't completely understand the aversion to it here. As someone who has small kids I get the attraction of having your own backyard, but feel that's not a huge compromise and modern apartment blocks have nice facilities as well as a lot are designed around parks, etc. When you look at the moment you can get a 3 bed apartment for just under a million 4 km from Sydney CBD. That is fairly good value in my mind. Yes, strata, etc has to be factored in.

    I think the thing that will have to give in this "ponzi scheme" is the perception that you can have an average job and live in a house in a global metropolis. Look at any other major city around the world for the same trend. Don't get me wrong houses are nice, but they are a luxury more and more these days. I think in the future living in a house will be like owning a yacht or a Porsche today. Only for the privileged. And I'm also not sure that that's the end of the world.

    • This in countries with a high population density. Take India & China for example. Cheaper to buy a house here vs there. Capital cities of course.

      • The reality is that many industries and jobs exist only in tiny spots of CBDs in capital cities in Australia, hence the population density in those areas and competition among those who depend on CBD jobs to make a living. Take the jobs out of the CBDs and you'll see completely different picture.

        I'd love not to live in a place with a high population density, but due to the nature of my work, I can only live in Sydney or Melbourne and be close to the airports, the best option I could find was approx 30km from Melbourne. Anything else is just marginally cheaper but considerably inconvenient.

  • +3

    Look at the long term. No one said you need to pay it all off in your lifetime. Just keep refinancing and extending the loan to keep it manageable. Eventually rent would cost more than repayments. Your kids might still require to service it but ofcourse by that time it would be minimal compared to renting. In the mean time you could rent out a room to speed things up. It won't be easy but given 1 or 2 generations that home is fully paid off.

  • -1

    Advice from my boss. All you need to do is buy any house you want on an interest only loan… as long as you have eligibility and deposit..

    Keep paying interest as long as you want to live there and principle if you wish to whatever you can afford..

    Say after 10 years you want to move at the most you will owe the principle.. just sell it pay off loan and walk away with a profit..

    Worst case scenario.. prices may fall you just stay there until it recovers atleast u will stay in a good suburb.. Where prices will recover faster..

    • Just one flaw, interest rates could go up at any time.

  • Property prices are getting out of hand. It doesn't make sense economically to have so much resources tied in housing (rent or mortgage) which leaves less for other consumption which actually drives economic growth.

    They should completely ban foreign investment and greatly increase stamp duty and other taxes for investors holding multiple properties.

    For the OP the question is ultimately how much you are willing to pay for the comfort of living in your own home. You can decorate and renovate as you please, won't have to wait around for things to be fixed. Only you can determine how much that is worth to you.

    Right now I think for the majority of people, renting makes more sense than buying to live in. Particularly with rental yields the way they are now (even after gearing).

  • I spent the better part of last year looking to buy a house, had my pre-approval etc. My budget was $400,000 (including pre-approval. I was aiming at 3 bedroom houses, starting anywhere from $360,000 - $395,000+
    Every house I put an offer in for ended up going for $450,000+

    Eventually my pre-approval expired, and around the same time house prices went up, so houses that were starting at $380,000 back then are now starting at $420,000+ (Out of my budget)

    Only option I was left with was to rent..

    • Orrrr, move to a cheaper suburb.

    • I share your pain. In same boat, did lots of research, spreadsheet data from last 1 year sold price etc.then Went to auction and it sold for $572k when avg sold price was around $530k in same area.

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