Which Parts of The Australian Economy Are Performing Poorly?

ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 11:48
Last edited 04/03/2025 - 14:32

Here's a list of where the Australian economy is performing quite well: (credit: Alan Austin)

Is there data to suggest the economy is performing poorly, as stated ad-nauseum by the ABC?

I am interested to see how OzBargain can explain the economy is performing poorly?

Financial

Comments

  • Gdsamp on 04/03/2025 - 11:54
    +14

    if economy good why cant afford shelter

    • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 11:55
      -3

      Because John Howard introduced the CGT discount.

      Next question

      • happydude on 04/03/2025 - 12:01
        +20

        I was wondering if this was more a pollical post than economic one.

        Just got my answer.

        • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 12:09
          -8

          So you think the CGT discount has no bearing on the housing situation in Australia?

          • happydude on 04/03/2025 - 12:52
            +13

            @ThithLord: You reduced reduced a complex issue of housing access and affordability to a single person and a single policy from 1999, then adding "next question".

            If you really don't think there has been any feasible policy options to counteract the impact of the CGT discount in the last 25 years, then you don't seem to grasp the complexity of the economy in order to adequately discuss it.

            CGT discount was to remove the more complex calculations of indexing the cost base to CPI. Prior to 1985 there was no CGT.

            The issue isn't that it has no bearing, the issue is you think it is the only bearing and are apparently unwilling to engage in discussion that says otherwise.

            This is a Labor shilling post with cheery picked articles, not an economic discussion.

            • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 12:54
              -6

              @happydude: Did you read the question I was answering?

              • happydude on 04/03/2025 - 12:57
                +17

                @ThithLord: Yes, Next question

                • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 13:00
                  -1

                  @happydude: Sure, why would the nature of why the CGT Discount was supposedly introduced, lessen the importance of why it has caused so much speculation on the Australian housing market? Is there a far larger factor at play, in your opinion?

      • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 21:07

        I mean that was part of the problem

    • coffeeinmyveins on 04/03/2025 - 11:57
      +6

      It's working as expected. Transfer of wealth from the poors to the rich. Carry on.

    • trapper on 04/03/2025 - 11:58
      +8

      Population growing faster than housing construction.

    • MonkEE on 04/03/2025 - 17:00

      Because the liberals have been pumping house prices up over the decade.

      https://www.corelogic.com.au/news-research/news/2022/the-lon…

    • justworld on 04/03/2025 - 18:59

      You can't afford rent? It's probably a combination of low wages or high expenses.

  • Cluster on 04/03/2025 - 12:01
    +8

    What I see missing on the list: increasing housing cost as a multiple of the average income.

    If you own two or more properties, you're good. If you own one, it does not benefit you (insurance, etc costs increase. The next house you buy has also gone up in price). If you don't own one… you'll be living with your parents into your 30s or sharing a house with four strangers.

    • freefall101 on 04/03/2025 - 13:30
      +1

      We're at about the OECD average, just slightly above.

      I think I need to buy a house in Romania and find a job that's 100% WFH.

      • Cluster on 04/03/2025 - 13:35
        +4

        Yes, it's a global problem. Canada is even worse. They look at our house prices and wonder what we're complaining about. That doesn't mean the situation is okay here.

        Adelaide has the 9th most unaffordable housing prices in the world. Adelaide! At least we're finally on the global stage….. wooo! :-P

        https://www.realestate.com.au/news/three-aussie-cities-ranke…

        • freefall101 on 04/03/2025 - 13:39
          +2

          It's not called Radelaide for nothing!

          Get your point, it's not ok and it's hitting people hard. It's the problem with trying the spruik the economy, saying "at least you're not in x country" is not a way to win the vote of someone being unable to afford a rental.

  • soan papdi on 04/03/2025 - 12:02
    +11

    I am interested to see how OzBargain can explain the economy is performing poorly?

    Corporations are making more profits, the country is getting richer overall. However, it also feels like the divide between rich and poor is also widening. I don't have data but feels like those in the starting stage of their career will really find it hard to become prosperous. Some will do well but we're talking on the whole. Just "working harder" won't cut it without some luck or assistance from BOMAD.

    • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 12:24

      Can't disagree with you there

  • Cluster on 04/03/2025 - 12:05
    +18

    We're actually in a recession. Been in one for over one and a half years.

    https://ipa.org.au/publications-ipa/media-releases/australia…

    Yes, GDP is growing, but per capita GDP is falling. We're propping up our GDP by importing huge amounts of people, who all need to buy furniture, housing, appliances, cars, etc. But per capita our GDP is shrinking and continues to shrink.

    • Crow K on 04/03/2025 - 12:13
      +4

      This is one of the reasons Dutton dropped his "cancel all immigration to a bigger extent than Labor would" talking points

      • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 12:19
        +8

        Didn't the LNP approve, like, over 600k VISAs before leaving office, that Labor had to deal with once taking office? Approved VISAs cannot just be cancelled on the fly

        • tenpercent on 04/03/2025 - 20:13

          Why not? Pass a law saying the Minister can cancel recently approved visas and just do it.

    • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 12:13

      What does Australia being one of only three OECD economies to have recorded positive quarterly growth every quarter for the last three years tell us, though?

      • Cluster on 04/03/2025 - 12:15
        +8

        Gross GDP and per capita GDP are two separate figures. The link above is for gross GDP. Our gross GDP is being propped up by importing hundreds of thousands of people every year. In 23/24 the net migration was +446,000.

        • RedHab on 04/03/2025 - 14:51
          +3

          This is also one of the reasons why we have a shortage of housing - see this graph:

          https://api.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/…

          • neoleo on 04/03/2025 - 18:56
            -2

            @RedHab: Macrobusiness has a lot of bias, not neutral. The owner/writer is anti immigrants but his name is like from Netherlands lol (doesn't matter if he was born here or not).

            • Bluto Mindpretzel on 04/03/2025 - 19:13

              @neoleo: Anti immigrants… are you trying to say they are racist? They are simple anti excessive immigration. The whole "you question the immigration rate, zomg racist!" is so tired.

              • neoleo on 04/03/2025 - 22:52

                @Bluto Mindpretzel: Yes, racist too. Certain writings mentioned about Indians and Chinese in very bias words for example. If they write like normal news, the writings will have less bias and look like more general articles. I read a lot of news. So, macrobusiness is worst than The Herald Sun, The Guardians, ABC, news.com.au, etc. I read SMH, The Age, AFR, tech news, etc. too. The more sources we read, better and well informed. So, we know if certain news have more bias than the others.

            • justworld on 04/03/2025 - 19:28
              +1

              @neoleo: Macrobusiness is read by useless shit kickers who have bad finances and want to find some external factor to blame for said lives. They will never blame themselves for not being good enough to achieve their financial aims even though the majority of Aussies are just fine and any able-bodied person with half a brain is doing completely well.

      • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 14:28
        +12

        If you take off your rose-tinted glasses Australia is only there because we have literally imported hundreds of thousands of people.

        The one thing that makes Australia so liveable is the very thing that's bringing about its undoing.

        An affordable way of life is no longer, people are being worked to the bone for very little benefit, when you take away the goal (owning a house) people don't have the motivation to work harder.

        • Leeroy Jenkins on 04/03/2025 - 16:26
          +2

          This.

          But why not use immigration as an easy target to direct people's attention?

        • justworld on 04/03/2025 - 19:29
          -6

          People are being 'worked to the bone'? The average state government employee is on $120k+ doing very little work in a very cushy job. Minimum wage is among the highest in the world. If you think this counts as being worked to the bone then please feel free to look at literally any other country in the entire world.

          • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 21:09

            @justworld: $120k is pretty much median wage
            And its not exactly like you'll be able to afford a house with that.

            • justworld on 05/03/2025 - 00:11

              @Drakesy: You can afford a flat or unit with it quite easily

              Not sure why you think a single income should be able to buy a 3BR house

      • R4 on 04/03/2025 - 15:40
        +6

        Massive immigration helps explain that
        Immigration - good.
        Mass immigration - bad.

      • Bluto Mindpretzel on 04/03/2025 - 19:15

        AKA "fake growth" aka "growth the average punter does not benefit from"

  • Jaduqimon on 04/03/2025 - 12:07

    as a middle class citizen, i do feel like my lifestyle has improved. the rich getting richer? sure but I am also getting richer, just not at the same rate as them.

    • carwashhair on 04/03/2025 - 12:10
      +6

      the golden shower of trickle down economics

    • greatlamp on 04/03/2025 - 16:28
      +1

      That means you are getting poorer. If the rich are getting richer at a faster rate than you are, their wealth - the assets they own - are growing faster than the assets you own.

      This is largely invisible if you only look at the cost of consumer goods and ignore assets, but when you suddenly find yourself unable to afford the home that you could have a decade ago, you have become poorer.

      • Jaduqimon on 04/03/2025 - 17:03

        Yeh so it's relative. I am also getting richer faster than the lower middle class.

        My living standards have improved now that I'm in my late 30s compared to when I was in my late 20s. And that's enough for me. No need to compare to Jack and Jill next door.

        • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 21:10

          I feel like i had more purchasing power as a student when going out as compared to what i do now.

          Having said that kmart has never been cheaper.

          • greatlamp on 04/03/2025 - 21:28

            @Drakesy: Governments have thrown billions into the economy for over a decade and it seemingly made no impact on inflation.
            https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/sp-so-2015-10-08.html

            The economists eventually worked out this was due to 'technological improvement'
            https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-29/inflation-may-be-low-…

            What has actually been happening is that China's high tech factories produce goods much more cheaply than the factories they displaced. Notice this has increased literally exponentially - during the same timeframe that near zero interest rates across the developed world 'didn't increase inflation'
            https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-china-is-now…

            China isn't going to do that again, and noone else is either. In fact it's reversing as the world de-globalizes in response.

            That means the era where CPI is artificially lowered by Chinese imports is over, and it will no longer be disguising the rapid increase in poverty, reduction in living standards, and accumulation of wealth by the richest segment of the population.

  • Ugly on 04/03/2025 - 12:15
    +6

    Almost all of the employment growth is in government.
    Record numbers of business insolvencies.
    This is not a sign of a healthy economy.

    • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 12:27
      +3

      Almost all of the employment growth is in government.

      Record numbers of business insolvencies

      As evidenced by?

      • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 14:26
        +4

        NDIS

        • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 15:00
          +2

          Right, I stand informed.

      • Dogsrule on 04/03/2025 - 21:41

        https://apo.org.au/node/329341

        Between August 2022 and August 2024, 82.1% of new persons employed were in the public sector.

        The total number of new public sector jobs created since August 2022 has already outstripped the number created from August 2014 to August 2022 by approximately 40%.

        • jrowls on 04/03/2025 - 22:43

          i would be very surprised if much of that wasn't simply due to the ALP govts removing artificial hiring restrictions and making all the contractor/consultant roles actual govt jobs.

    • pharkurnell on 04/03/2025 - 13:45
      +2

      Dont bring logic to this thread.. hes on a roll.

  • CaptainJack on 04/03/2025 - 12:34
    +2

    Should this be re-titled I LUV ALBO?

    • pharkurnell on 04/03/2025 - 13:44
      -1

      Just think how shattered he will be when albo gets the arse at the next election…

  • DingoBilly on 04/03/2025 - 12:35
    +2

    Some of the stats you posted don't work/are wrong.

    For example, RBA uses trimmed mean inflation. So the inflation rate is actually still above and has not been in their target for 2 years or something.

    The employment growth and more people participating is because people can't afford to live with less money. So that's not a good indicator, means more people are struggling and need to work more.

    I couldn't verify your homelessness data from your source, but other data I sourced from AIHW and other reports suggest it's rising quite significantly.

    I dunno, if you focus purely on business profit then I guess it looks OK, but most people aren't businesses and are struggling. What you wrote just misses a lot of nuance and context, and I think some of it is just incorrect or not properly researched by yourself.

    I get you're trying to push some weird political agenda for some reason, but Australia isn't doing so crash hot, and the future is pretty precarious given how poor the investment market is.

    E. G., the economic complexity of Australia is abysmal and keeps dropping. We're behind countries like Uganda.
    https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/36

    Plenty of other sources suggesting Australia is poorly positioned for the future and even atm with its over reliance on housing instead of actual investment into productivity and services.

    • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 14:31
      +1

      The employment growth and more people participating is because people can't afford to live with less money. So that's not a good indicator, means more people are struggling and need to work more.

      Can I ask what makes you suggest this?

      The link to Labour force statistics stated (in the Key Findings):

      participation rate increased to 67.3%.
      employment increased to 14,634,300.
      employment to population ratio increased to 64.6%.
      underemployment rate remained at 6.0%.
      monthly hours worked decreased to 1,971 million.
      full-time employment increased by 54,100 to 10,092,800 people.
      part-time employment decreased by 10,100 to 4,541,500 people.

      So I'm seeing: more people employed, the population-to-employment ratio higher, under-employment not increasing, monthly hours worked decreasing, as well as more full-time employment and less part-time employment showing that Employment growth is demonstrated

      I get you're trying to push some weird political agenda for some reason, but Australia isn't doing so crash hot, and the future is pretty precarious given how poor the investment market is.

      Nothing weird about questioning the entire media landscapes agenda to obscure past governments poor-performance whilst also obscuring the current government's performance.

      I couldn't verify your homelessness data from your source, but other data I sourced from AIHW and other reports suggest it's rising quite significantly.

      Noted, I'll edit the OP, as you are right.

      • greatlamp on 04/03/2025 - 16:32
        +1

        The employment growth and more people participating is because people can't afford to live with less money. So that's not a good indicator, means more people are struggling and need to work more.

        Can I ask what makes you suggest this?

        If a record % of the population is in employment (not talking about the unemployment rate which only considers people 'looking' for work, but the % of all citizens that are working), and the population is aging (so there are less working age people than before), that means people are working today who in past years would have already retired.

        This isn't the only explanation, you could also apply the logic to other assumed groups - less children means less mothers, so more women working

        Most likely it's related to the record number of migrant students adding to population and working population 1:1

  • Benoffie on 04/03/2025 - 12:36
    +1

    Can you delink the stats from imported economy and then break down by state and city vs country?

    It's irrelevant what those stats say as they are manipulated.

    What matters to voters is:

    • what does my mortgage cost?
    • what does a trolley of groceries cost?
    • cost of seeing a doctor (and related health care)
    • cost of raising children
    • taxes that impede movement into and through retirement

    Humans aren't tricky beings. Most want the same stuff. Work hard, be rewarded, not feel like theyre being robbed.

    This pretty much sums it up

    https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/macro…

    And interest rate cuts wont be enough to restart spending. They could cut by 1% and itll still be too late.

    • MrThing on 04/03/2025 - 16:29

      b b b but the stockmarket

      say people who dont actually understand what the everyday person view as signs the economy is doing well

      • Benoffie on 04/03/2025 - 16:33

        I would even be careful with shares atm.

        Major longterm indicators aren't looking good (Buffett and Shiller)

  • Duckie2hh on 04/03/2025 - 12:39
    +2

    data to suggest the economy is performing poorly

    Potato cake at my local shop is $1.40 each.

    • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 13:01
      -1

      That's a smoking gun

      • Zondor on 04/03/2025 - 14:57

        Beef mince pie is $6+ now

  • AustriaBargain on 04/03/2025 - 13:05
    +3

    Having so much of our wealth be on paper and debt around existing houses seems like a big problem to me. It would be better if more of that wealth were in shares of real Australian companies. If people could invest in the ABC after Bluey, I bet some would take a punt.

    • Cluster on 04/03/2025 - 14:00
      +3

      Building a house produces huge amounts of economic activity, then flipping that house between multiple owners counts in GDP calculations, but nothing is actually produced. On paper we're richer but in terms of actual real, usable wealth it's rather dubious. The only way we can 'export' the ever more expensive house is to get a foreigner to buy it.

      My house increased by $100k in value last year, according to my council fee statement. Yay? I'm "richer" on paper but realistically I'm poorer: I have to pay more in insurance now, and the council can use the excuse that everyone is richer now to jack up council fees.

      • AustriaBargain on 04/03/2025 - 14:33
        +1

        Plus if you have children, they all need to pay 100k each more for their own houses if houses have gone up 100k.

        • greatlamp on 04/03/2025 - 21:14

          Asset price growth is driven by increasing financialisation of the economy. The money comes from the future. The future of the people purchasing homes later, i.e. the younger generation.

          In the UK talk of 40 year mortgages started appearing a few years ago. We aren't going to fare much better if governments don't start taking this seriously.

          • AustriaBargain on 04/03/2025 - 21:42

            @greatlamp: If the government built social housing that even median income people would qualify for, massive towers with big rooms, gyms, etc. then I'd be happy to rent one of them the rest of my life. I don't want to own a home, I just want somewhere half decent to live and know I can always afford it. Government would probably make a bit of a profit off such social housing after a few decades, if the opposition doesn't sell it all off.

            • greatlamp on 04/03/2025 - 21:50

              @AustriaBargain: I think so too. Unfortunately the way government budgets work discourages infrastructure investment.

              It looks much better to increase payments for rent assistance by 3% every year than it does to increase debt by several billion dollars in the short term. Since 2018 the government spends more on rent assistance than it does on social housing. More on money to private landlords than on property it owns itself.

              Rent assistance subsidises rent, meaning it increases the price of rent - it's counter productive. Instead the government could own the housing and earn a return, even if that return was lower than market rate the government would still own the asset.

              The money people save in rent is disposable income that goes back into the economy. Instead it is more acceptable to stimulate the economy by giving banks billions in interest free capital and hope it trickles down eventually.

      • Talonparty on 04/03/2025 - 15:19

        You're absolutely richer relative to the person who wants to buy your house and hasn't had one in their possession.

  • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 13:30
    +5

    Anything Private.

    NDIS is literally propping up the entire economy right now.

    • R4 on 04/03/2025 - 15:41

      Mining is going gangbusters.

      • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 15:50
        +2

        Iron Ore Price isn't great, Nickel's in the sh1tter and Lithium is dead, WA's rising unemployment rate says otherwise.

        There's a lot of redundancies out there at the moment.

        • R4 on 04/03/2025 - 15:59

          Sure, I work in the industry and everyone I know is employed. Most people laid off are getting hired elsewhere. Fe is still at 105 (with a break even price of about 20) and gas and gold are still going crazy. Things can obviously change (and change quickly) but right now it's looking pretty good.

          Agriculture is also going well. CBH are in the same building as us and the guys I talk to say that things are good.

          Something will have to give on the NDIS as current expenditure is unsustainable.

          • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 16:14
            +1

            @R4: Yeah CBH is flying under the radar on the back of a bumper season and Ukraine's unfortunate situation.
            There's a lot of cashed up farmers out there.

            NDIS will definitely be the gradual downfall of the current generations who have to support both the pensioners and a dramatically increasing social services budget.

        • MrThing on 04/03/2025 - 16:50

          Nickel is dead, its not in the shitter china/Indonesia have all but crippled our nickel mines as being too high cost (environmentally and ethically sound, but financially dead)

  • freefall101 on 04/03/2025 - 13:36
    +1

    Wages growth above inflation for five straight quarters(abs.gov.au);

    Barely. The problem was that things got hard when inflation was massively outdoing wages and it hasn't reversed that trend.

    There's also that it should be compared to monthly household spend and not inflation. Inflation is the cost of goods, but people are spending significantly above inflation. Trying to tell people inflation is coming down when they have less money in their pocket is a losing battle.

  • jv on 04/03/2025 - 14:03
    -3

    Which Parts of The Australian Economy Are Performing Poorly?

    All the parts Albo is responsible for….

  • Wiadro on 04/03/2025 - 14:20
    +3

    all these good things and yet people want to vote for dutton.

    • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 14:24
      +4

      I'm not sure if having 15 years of growth in spending power eroded in the space of 3 years is a good thing.

      having said that Dutton is a dropkick

      • nned2say on 04/03/2025 - 14:42

        Dutton is an (profanity) for sure. But what other options do we have? After the Chinese live-fire exercises saga, I am sick of the weak Labor government.

        • Drakesy on 04/03/2025 - 14:44

          There're a lot of independents out there.

        • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 14:47
          +1

          Was it Labor who allowed the port of Darwin to be leased to a Chinese company for 99 years, and then had one of their politicians join said board?

      • greatlamp on 04/03/2025 - 21:39

        This is why Dutton will win the next election. The average voter will blame the inflation on the current government rather than Scott Morrison and the RBA governor that he picked.

        The great economic minds they put into the RBA determined that the economic crisis caused by a shortage of goods (caused by COVID lockdowns) required near zero interest rates to 'simulate' the economy and encourage spending - on goods that didn't exist. We got a 30% increase in house prices in 2 years and people cheered - as if this wealth comes from nowhere like a genie, rather than coming from their fellow Australians and the younger generation.

        People will blame Albanese for inflation and vote for the man that will work hard to lower taxes on corporations, keep the mining kickbacks flowing, and fix unaffordable housing by some new flavour of first home buyer grant.

  • LanceVance on 04/03/2025 - 14:45
    +1

    Is it enough to stop people voting for the uniparty?

    • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 15:23

      Do Independents usually platform economy-reforming policy?

      • tenpercent on 04/03/2025 - 15:24

        Who knows? No mainstream media outlets would cover it even if they did.
        Pepsi vs Coke, Red vs Blue, Labor vs Liberal, NRL vs AFL, NSW vs QLD, Australia vs India is the depth and breadth of complexity the mainstream media think you can handle.

        • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 15:26
          +1

          I'd posit that's all they want us to handle. Treat us like mushrooms

      • LanceVance on 04/03/2025 - 15:26
        +1

        People First party has some great looking policies. Few probably ever bother to read them, rather they'll go with the media label of 'fringe' or 'racist'.

    • tenpercent on 04/03/2025 - 15:23
      +2

      Most people don't think there are any other options beyond uniparty or 'the racist party' and 'the tree huggers party'.

  • ForkSnorter on 04/03/2025 - 15:17
    +1

    You missed the main point: housing price growth has massively exceeded wage growth over the last 5 years. We are all poorer because of it (unless you bought a house prior to that).

    • ThithLord on 04/03/2025 - 15:21

      Is it only in the last 5 years?

      • ForkSnorter on 04/03/2025 - 15:23

        Rural areas and QLD have seen prices increase by 100% or more since early 2020. Wages are not even in the same ballpark as this increase.

    • tenpercent on 04/03/2025 - 15:22

      Even if you did, you're probably still functionally poorer (just not on paper). Your council rates will have gone up, insurance costs would have gone up. If you sell anything you buy has already gone up too, so you're not that much better off unless you downsize and reduce your standard of living.

    • MonkEE on 04/03/2025 - 16:58
      -1

      House prices has increase massively due to the liberal's policies for decades. If you want house prices to improve. Don't vote LNP.

      https://www.corelogic.com.au/news-research/news/2022/the-lon…

      • tenpercent on 04/03/2025 - 20:19

        If you want house prices to improve, don't vote for the uniparty.

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