Property Development - 3 Townhouses - Construct or Sell at a Loss !

Hi All,

We purchased a house in Ballarat (Regional Victoria) a couple of years ago (in hindsight - at the peak of the property bubble) with the intention of constructing 3 townhouses. Unfortunately, we had someone living on the same street appeal at VCAT due to which there were delays in commencing construction.

Long story short - We hired a lawyer and the outcome at VCAT was in our favour however the numbers do not stack up anymore due to an increase in construction costs, holding costs to complete the build and overall reduction in the property prices.

Property was placed on the market and there was hardly any interest even with plans and permits approved (No bids at the auction) The agent has advised us that the realistic selling price is approx $100K less than our purchase price which seems to be too much for us to lose at this point in time.

We can afford to build but its too risky to take the decision - Has anyone been in this situation recently where you had purchased at the peak and sold at a loss? We are prepared to sell at a loss but not at this level !

Poll Options

  • 31
    Sell now - Property market is going to worsen in next 12 to 24 months
  • 124
    Hold if possible - Revisit the situation and build or sell in 12 to 24 months
  • 7
    Buy/Sell - Sell at a loss and reinvest the money elsewhere and buy low

Comments

  • +3

    just hodl

  • +7

    Hodl, rent out the current property to stem the bleeding.

    • +2

      Depends on rental yields, price OP paid and holding costs.

      Unfortunately a lot of people go into property unaware of the economic cycle and also with very little plan B. It isn't one single property market. It always makes great news the house that went for $1m over ask. Either it was underquote or there was someone who wasn't with all their sense that day.

      • +1

        I saw an auction ~1 month ago with guide 1.6-1.7M. It then passed in, with the highest bid of 2.165.
        Price guide/reserved price is ridiculous.

        • That is just crazy. There is a big difference between vendor and real estate agents on that one.

          • @netjock: I think that's their strategy. RE agencies get a lot of money when the market is hot. By lowering the price guide they get more viewers/auction registrations/potential buyers. By making up unrealistic reserved prices, they get more "sold for 1M above reserve" news articles, and FOMO is spread

    • -1

      its regional vic, not punchbowl, no one gonna rent there.

  • Sell at a loss so someone else can build on it

    • yeah sell it and suck up the loss, its lesson learned.

  • I noticed your other post:
    https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/806446

    Why not just Rent both properties?

    • -1

      Both are already rented however one is for us to move in and live and the other is purely for investment!

  • +13

    We are prepared to sell at a loss but not at this level !

    Property is an investment and like any other investment it can go up or down. Shares for example go up and down all the time and it's accepted that the shares might tank in value and you end up selling at a loss.

    Property is no different. Sadly most have only ever seen property go up in this country.

    the realistic selling price is approx $100K less than our purchase price which seems to be too much for us to lose at this point in time.

    While this seems a large loss, it was the risk you took. If you made $300k out of it, you would have been happy too.

    The other investors also did the figures like you and as you have found out the numbers don't stack up. So yeah you'll have to sell at a price point that makes sense for them.

    So the question is, do you keep holding and allow this 'loss' figure to keep growing or do you cut your losses. The good news is, the loss can be rolled over to something else.

    You could also change your plan and build something else. Maybe 2 units of higher build standard or do a KDR and build a stunning house you can flip. Again they all come with risks.

    • Exactly and I completely understand - Others have done their numbers and unless its a builder the numbers dont stack up. Our confusion really is if we should be holding longer to reduce our loss as we can still afford to pay the repayments (Principal and Interest) or sell so we can move on !

      • Even for a builder, they'll most likely pretend the costs are like yours so they pocket more profit at the end of the day. They don't like working for free.

        As for holding, its hard to say what the market will do, as I said most people have only ever seen property go up in value, so this flat prices or decline in value is totally new to most.

        Your holding costs will continue to rack up. If you can't hold for 3-6 years, then I would say cut your loss earlier than later rather than burn up all your money.

        Have you done the figures if you build the units and rent them out instead? This way you could always list them for sale as well.

  • +1

    Are you a builder ? If you are building it yourself and you are going to hire all the trades and project manage, it might still make good financial sense.

    If you are going to hire a company to build for you that can go bankrupt at any time, the risk is very high you might lose all your money.

    Better off losing 100k than alot more than that.

    It all depends on the risk vs rewards, it looks like over time the townhouses will reduce in value, by the time they are built your losses maybe 3 fold or more.

    Considering where interest is atm, if you hold onto it, that's a big opportunity loss from no interest, you can take the 100k loss and use it to reduce your taxable income from investments over the next several years. So technically speaking a loss now may become a break even in the future.

    • +1

      I am not a builder - the plan was go through a registered builder to complete the build. I agree with your thoughts but the problem and from my understanding that the capital losses can only be offset against capital gains.

      • +2

        understanding that the capital losses can only be offset against capital gains.

        Correct.

      • -1

        If you were going to rent them out, can't you just sell one of the three townhouses? You could probably sell one today if you found a cashed up sucker.

      • +3

        Usually - but - there was an ATO ruling just recently which I am struggling to find - the bones of it was a lady who bought a unit off the plan, and while she was waiting for it to be built she bought another unit to live in, with the intention of selling it when her first unit was ready.
        She sold this second unit for a loss, and was successful in claiming the loss against her other income rather than as a capital loss. ATO ruled that the intention all along was to sell the property and make a profit, and they considered it a business transaction.
        The precedent has been set - there's talk of how this may affect people who buy a owner occupier with the intention of renovating and flipping. They may not be exempt from CGT on the sale profit due to this ruling.

        Anyway if I can find a link to it I'll post it here. I'm sure I read it in the AFR within the last week or so.

        (EDIT) here - https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/ruling-could-mea…

  • Prices will either rise or fall. If you can't pick a side then holding is the each way bet.

  • With the "first" property in SE Melb, why don't you build two places (Duplex) on it and live in one and either sell (or rent the other).

    You are value adding or improving the Property you bought and can have a place to live and an exit strategy to get some money back or an income stream from the Tenant next door.

    Just as time was your enemy with the Ballarat property, I think now time is your friend while you wait for better and more sane times.

    You may not be building what you had hoped but it gives you somewhere to live and potentially some cash if you sell half.

    • House is SE is for us to live - We are now building there and will be moving in next 12 months. Our existing home where we currently live will be sold off to pay off the construction loan for SE property.

      • So, is this Bridging Financed?
        What rate?

        • Its not a bridging finance as we could afford the additional amount to build so the banker has used the rental from my existing home as proposed rent and the house being built is owner occupied - We intend to sell our existing home once we move out.

  • Build then register a company etc and lotto them off. .

  • +3

    Just leverage the infinite government subsidy that is negative gearing!
    HOW GOOD

    CAN'T TAKE A LOSS IF THE GOVERNMENT IS GIVING YOU 50% back!

    • -2

      Pretty sure they also take a percentage of your profit too.
      If your investment goes backwards why shouldn't you claim the loss?
      Or are you 'one of those'?

      • Pretty sure they also take a percentage of your profit too.
        If your investment goes backwards why shouldn't you claim the loss?

        If your investment is going backwards then it's not a profit-making exercise and you'd be inclined to sell.
        Negative gearing incentivises people to hold out, effectively using taxpayer money to subsidise ownership of investment properties.

        You only make a capital loss that you can claim back when you sell shares, should really be the same for housing imho.

    • -2

      Not how maths nor negative gearing work, but thank you for the completely uneducated contribution.

      • -1

        So how does it work?

        • Rather than me explaining something you could very easily read about on the ATO website, perhaps you can explain how when you make a loss, you somehow get 50% of that back which also somehow negates the entire loss. I'll wait. Please, explain this to me.

          Ignoring that, because you won't be able to provide an example as maths doesn't work like that, negative gearing works because your tax bill is reduced by an amount equal to your effective marginal tax rate, multiplied by (income less expenses). Unless you are somehow paying 50% tax when the top marginal rate is 45c, and that is on $180k+ only, you're just blatantly wrong and don't understand how it works.

          • @ajr5k: Where was the explanation "wrong" apart from not acknowledging the tax rate being variable between 50% down to say 35%? Everything else holds true. And you're still getting a government taxpayer funded subsidy for your poor investment decisions.

            Lets not forget 25% of all IP's are owned by 1% of Australia so a big proportion woud be pushing the highest tax bracket.

            • @Drakesy: You made two claims, so you mean apart from 50% of your claims? Ok, no problems…

              "Just leverage the infinite government subsidy that is negative gearing!"
              Negative gearing is not a government subsidy. This is provably incorrect.
              You probably meant that it would appear to subsidise losses on investment properties, but I am not the one making the incorrect claim that negative gearing is a government subsidy.

              "CAN'T TAKE A LOSS IF THE GOVERNMENT IS GIVING YOU 50% back!"
              Previously disproven and again, not how maths works.
              If I lost $10,000, getting $5,000 back does not negate the loss of the other $5,000. You are still down. You also can't actually get $5,000 back either, I am using your incorrect understanding of how it works.
              How it would actually work, is that if I lost $10,000 on an investment property, I would have something like $15,000 rental income and $25,000 of expenses. Let's assume these are all deductible expenses for the ease of calculation.
              In this scenario, I have a deficit of $10,000.
              Now, I don't actually get this $10,000 back, nor is "THE GOVERNMENT IS GIVING YOU 50% back!".
              This $10,000 loss reduces my taxable income.
              Let's assume I make $100,000 before tax for the ease of calculation again. A bit below the average Ozbargainer, I know…
              After tax, this becomes $75,000.00 (rounded)
              This income level places me firmly in the 32.5% tax bracket, so that $10,000 reduces my tax liability by $3,250.00
              Rather than my taxable income being $75,000.00 (rounded), it becomes $71,750.00 (rounded).
              You'll notice that the statement "THE GOVERNMENT IS GIVING YOU 50% back!" is also incorrect.

              What was correct about your statement that you disagree with my assessment of your contribution as being completely wrong?

              • -2

                @ajr5k: So the government in your example is giving you back a 35% refund - which would otherwise be tax. So effecitvely subsidised by all Australians, not sure how you think this isn't a subsidy?

                • -1

                  @Drakesy: My favourite part was you dropping the word "government subsidy" and replacing it with just "subsidy".
                  The two are not the same thing. It sounds like you are acknowledging that it is not a government subsidy - Which goes back to the entire of your comment being wrong.

                  I ask again if you would so indulge me: What was correct about your statement that you disagree with my assessment of your contribution as being completely wrong?

                • @Drakesy: When you buy a $10 item at the supermarket with a 50% off deal, is that $5 a subsidy from Colesworth? Have all the Colesworth shareholders subsidised your $5?

                  A subsidy is a grant, not a refund or reduction. A free $5 gift card is a subsidy, a $5 discount or cash back is not.

                  • @Jolakot: Sounds like a subsidy To me.

                    A subsidy aims to keep a good or a service low, I.e. operating an investment property.

    • +2

      Neg gear, what a rort, waste of tax payers money. If someone can invest then they can suck up the loss, its the risk any investor should understand. Don't get other tax payers to fund your loss!

  • +2

    Have you done the finances for other development options? Eg. Just a single nice/fancy home? Might be quicker and cheaper to build than the 3 unit development and hopefully at least break even.

    I recently bought and it would seem that the price difference between the worst-house-in-the-best-street vs the best-house-in-the-best-street is/was more than the value of the house. The price differences were close to $1mil but the house (at a guess based on volume builder prices) is $600k-700k in current markets.

    There is something to be said about ready-to-move in houses.

    Just providing as another option for consideration, unless you're determined to go with your current two.

  • At least username checks out, bought at the summit …

  • If states and fed do follow through with their promise to dramatically increase supply in the coming years, won't construction labour only get more expensive? Might make sense to start building now. You should probably consult someone whose business it is to predict these things.

  • +1

    How is it possible that the property has depreciated?

    • It was a good one for developers, presumably.

      Property development has stalled, new housing starts are the lowest they’ve been in a while thanks to material and labour costs. But the reason housing prices have stayed high is no one is selling, developers are just sitting back and waiting rather than selling. Granted, it seems like they’re not buying either.

  • What is the predicted cycle for the upturn? 5-7 years? Hold, but be sure to be able to fund that.

    • +2

      I predict it will be 6.345% higher in 5-7 years. Please pay me my fee now, I will refund if incorrect.

      • I remember you said there always comes to a point where property prices can no longer go up.

        But current average property prices have already risen back above pre-rate hike when RBA cash rate was still 0.15%

        All these 13 rate hikes only resulted in record higher property prices.

        Australia hasn't seen a property crash for over 30 years.

        • +3

          I’ve been wrong about property prices for 20 years, and I’d be retired now if I had listened to the scammiest property spruikers of 2003.
          I’d be stoked for my kids if prices dropped 50%, a reversion to mean, but I’m not holding my breath.
          Being wrong about an investment class meant I missed that one. I still have a place to live, though it is that, not some investment for a return.
          At this rate I do wonder if I will ever see property even reasonably affordable in Australia.
          More likely to see our young people choose to leave the place - who wants to get a $2m mortgage for an ordinary terrace in Randwick when you could buy a chateau for similar money?

          And for an investment, I still don’t think Aussie property is a good thing. Much more chance of a share in BHP doubling than a Sydney house - but hard to buy a share of bhp on 10% deposit with a 30 year loan.

        • Australia hasn't seen a property crash for over 30 years.

          What prediction can be drawn from this?

  • Build and rent three out and wait for next cycle? Or hold a few years and wait for building costs to drop?

  • +1

    selling price is approx $100K less than our purchase price which seems to be too much for us to lose at this point in time

    Plus another ~$50k transaction cost?

    You're renting out another property so likely to also incur land tax?

    What's the net rental yield (rent less all costs excl interest divided by purchase price) vs interest rate?

    How old is the property? Do you incur a lot of maintenance costs?

    Outlook for regional centres is flat or declining as people move from WFH to work in the office if they want to retain their jobs.

    I don't have much info, but from what I can glean, I would sell.

    Re the hold approach, what if prices fall more, will you hold for even longer? In theory, if you hold until you're 80, you'll probably recover your purchase price and then some, but there's a big opportunity cost that you don't take into account. Also, building could take 2+ years with no rent; can you manage comfortably?

    • All this is true, and seems like stuff that would have been considered when buying a place to knock down and build three dwellings (hopefully!).

      I’ll also say that investors who jump at shadows of changing markets incur all the transaction costs trying to time decisions, and given time, investors who stayed the course with good investments see the returns.

      I would hate to watch my bank balance shrink each month with negative geared property in a falling market, with a block on my original plan to build and sell.

      But it also really sucks to know you lost money when you didn’t hold on, and the person you sold to who held another few years gets the big return.

      FWIW, I think the idea people who relocated to regional areas are keen to return to the CBD office is commercial real estate propaganda. Commercial real estate wishes it were true, but it isn’t happening in a big way. There are plenty of jobs to be had remotely or hybrid and employers who are forcing staff back to the CBD are struggling to hire.

      And I’ll also put the argument that a paper loss of $100k could easily be the buyer/seller spread for regional real estate. If you need to buy something in a smaller market, there is less choice, so all the good stuff seems expensive. If you need to sell stuff in a regional market, there are fewer buyers, so all the buyers seem reluctant to spend. Where the two meet each month can vary by a lot, compared to the variation on a cookie cutter investor high rise in Melbourne where there is always supply and always buyers. (And this is true if you look at car sales outside capital cities, or sharemarket quotes for thinly traded stocks).

      • I think the idea people who relocated to regional areas are keen to return to the CBD office is commercial real estate propaganda

        How I tried to think about this is: is the population of regional areas going to be flat, increase or reduce? Are migrants moving there or the capital cities? The WFH stock (leave aside "there are plenty of jobs to be had remotely or hybrid") - is it increasing, flat or reducing?

        buy/sell spread for regional real estate

        Yes, I agree, the spread would be similar to small caps. However, we need to balance the fact that the OP has owned the property for a couple of years and says with hindsight bought at the peak of the bubble, so I'm assuming they're making informed comments here.

        • +1

          I actually think there is a good future of increasing population in most regional towns, COVID wfh aside.
          Modern technology, transport and techniques are reducing the difference between regions and the cities.
          And at the same time, city life is becoming costlier and harder with congestion, crowding and crime.

          A generation ago, regional towns had poorer access to many things, from international food, to education to jobs. By any measure, the difference has decreased. And while it still exists, it is a much smaller push to make people leave.
          On the other side, the advantages of regions largely remain.

          So I think at the very least the idea regions will be shrinking backwaters is out of date.

  • wouldnt the total lost be more then 100k since you been paying principle + interest on it already? (if you sell).

  • Permits usually last 2 years and can easily be extended. Sitting on it is a good option unless you think construction costs are going to rise further. The important thing to consider in either case is can you afford to hold onto it? In the long term assets will always go up as they print more money.

  • can you do something different thats cheaper. ie, build just one townhouse behind, extend the existing and sell?

  • Has the market peaked?

  • Worth remembering that your real estate agent won’t get paid if you don’t make a sale, so they will be motivated to see you conclude holding is not a great option.
    As an investor, you need to decide if income from the present situation versus costs is an acceptable price to pay for the potential to make future gains from appreciation and whether development costs will stay elevated or moderate.

    Basically, if you sell now, you lock in the losses, lock in the costs of selling and remove the possibility of future gains.
    If you hold on, you risk additional uncertain loses, but also have the opportunity for future, uncertain gains.

    I don’t know if you only entered into the investment with a short time frame for return, and have no appetite for risks. You need to make that decision.

    You can calculate the present loss with reasonable certainty. You can probably also calculate your holding costs - it seems pretty unlikely interest rates will march further skyward, but they might go up once or twice, but equally might stall for a while before dropping somewhat.

    If it were me, I would decide if I could live with being a landlord covering a negative cashflow for some years for the chance to make some money later. The only thing you can be certain of is the losses if you decide to sell.

    I don’t think things are changing so quickly either way you must decide this week if you can live with your rental income and loan repayments.

    • If it were me, I would decide if I could live with being a landlord covering a negative cashflow for some years for the chance to make some money later

      How would you determine the "some" years, because it's easy for it to drag into the "long term" or is it until you can't afford to hold it any more? Don't forget then it's the sum of the income losses plus the capital loss (and any opportunity cost).

      • Exactly. But there are so many moving parts to the equation who can say but the OP?
        If they bought without finance, it is opportunity cost. If they bought with 10% deposit they are presumably looking at a painful chunk of money out the door each month.

        Most likely it is somewhere in between and they are weighing it up.

  • +3

    Always love a bit of reality for property developers.

    We are prepared to sell at a loss but not at this level !

    Bet you wouldn't be complaining if you made a cool half million though

    • It's very easy if they aren't prepared to sell at this level of loss. Just need to hold on. It either becomes an even more unacceptable loss, or comes good.
      By their words there is no choice because selling at this loss is unacceptable!

  • hold onto the land. do not sell at a loss. ride out the wave

  • We purchased a house in Ballarat (Regional Victoria) a couple of years ago (in hindsight - at the peak of the property bubble)

    What bubble peak? Average house prices now is even higher than pre-rate hike when RBA cash rate was 0.15%

    Maybe just the regionals busted as people moving back into the cities.

  • +1

    It's a profitless boom for builders and developers ATM…. Be an investor/landlord for a while.

    Just hold and get rent till you are in a position to sell without a loss. You'll be doing renters a favour too.

  • +3

    sunk-cost fallacy
    the phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.
    "the sunk-cost fallacy creeps into a lot of major financial decisions"

  • You are wanting to sell, but not wanting to sell at the price the market is offering. The market doesn't care about your pride. You either accept the market price or you don't sell. Think how you'll feel if you delay and prices fall further.
    Personally, looking at the poll, you have time. The market will float as long as the majority still advise holding on for better times.
    Nobody knows, you must make your own decision. One thing is sure, selling will DEFINITELY stop the bleeding. Holding on may or may not.
    I've done both over the years, selling definitely feels better. Live to fight another day. Your time on the planet is limited.

  • You listed it for Auction and that didnt work. Have you actually put it on the market with a price? Some investors dont go to auctions.

  • +1

    The way to look at this situation is to ask yourself, if you could buy this property for XYZ (being the price you can sell it for today), would you buy it?

    If you wouldn't buy it, why would you not sell it?

  • +4

    Finally! Some positive news from the property market.
    Cheers!!

  • +1

    Build and rent out until market improves

  • I've been in the same situation but decided to go ahead because the rent was just enough to cover expenses

    The only way I found was wait to the next boom to sell but in saying that if you are in an oversupplied area it gets quite hard

    So if you can afford to keep and rent out that is good

    But if you are having sleepless nights and worry too much just take the L

  • +2

    Considering the property is selling for 100k less than your purchase price you are already at a loss. The market has already valued your asset. Now the decision you have to make is do u want to REALISE the loss and redeploy the funds into another asset/investment that has a higher rate of return than your current or do you anticipate this is the best investment choice for you out there. (Account for transaction costs too)

    The moral of the story is you have incurred the loss already.. focus on the investment that will give better return.

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