Will home battery storage REALLY come down in price?

hazwing on 27/07/2023 - 13:30

I swear people have been saying that home batteries will come down in price for ages and it's not worth the investment, and you should just get more solar (particularly from solar installers)

But looking at the cost of the tesla powerwall 2 it's actually gone up in price over time. Not sure about the cost of other battery storage options.
The sungrow batteries with hybrid inverter - can be had around ~$11,000 for ~9.6kwh. But when you add another battery stack to bring the storage capacity to 12.8kwh, it comes to being around a similar price to having a tesla powerwall 2 installed.

Doing some rough sums for my circumstance, I do agree that getting a battery will take quite some time to recover your costs (~8-10 years). But I'm still tempted to get it, just to insulate from future energy price rises, and to say F U to the demand tariff charges.

I already have a 6kw solar system which often has excess energy to the grid, so adding more solar would mean that I'd only be getting the FIT and there would be minimal additional self consumption. With FIT dropping and often being capped, adding more solar has little benefit and would also take 7.5-10 years to recover (depending on FIT/panel & inverter brand). If energy companies drop their EV plans that have cheap night time charging, it might then be worthwhile to have extra solar and try use the EV to soak up extra solar production, but failing that I don't see the point of adding more solar.

So in summary, should I just get a battery now, or will battery prices really go down in future?

Electrical & Electronics

Comments

  • jv on 27/07/2023 - 13:45

    Will home battery storage REALLY come down in price?

    Maybe in about 10 years it will start to be an economical option.

    • boomramada on 27/07/2023 - 16:26
      +3

      In 10 years time when everyone got a EV and battery storage? Very less likely.

      • jv on 27/07/2023 - 16:28
        +4

        everyone got a EV

        Not in 10 years.

        • pharkurnell on 27/07/2023 - 17:08
          +12

          Correct.more like 25yrs.

    • smartazz104 on 28/07/2023 - 14:55
      +12

      Everything relating to battery technology and EVs is supposed to drastically improve in 10 years, that's what they've been saying for 50 years.

    • iDroid on 29/07/2023 - 20:25
      +2

      When we all have an EV, we'll all have a mobile home battery.

      • serpserpserp on 29/07/2023 - 21:00

        When all EVs support that feature

        • iDroid on 30/07/2023 - 20:11

          I'm pretty sure once there's competition this will become a selling point - so much so it'd likely make-or-break a purchase for me already.

    • teacherer on 27/07/2023 - 14:25
      +5

      Easy for you to say.

      I live in Bundaberg, a population of 105k, and there is one energy provider, Ergon.

        • bobwokeup on 28/07/2023 - 13:01
          +1

          Your advice is terrible, 2nd post today where you haven’t been helpful.

            • bobwokeup on 28/07/2023 - 14:38

              @jv: Haha majority don’t care for your opinion that’s clear by the negs and comments. You keep doing you!!!

              • jv on 28/07/2023 - 14:38
                -7

                @bobwokeup:

                Haha majority don’t care for your opinion

                proof?

                • bobwokeup on 28/07/2023 - 14:43

                  @jv: I literally just told you the negs and the comments.

                  • jv on 28/07/2023 - 14:44
                    -5

                    @bobwokeup: That's just your opinion, so it doesn't count.

                    • bobwokeup on 28/07/2023 - 14:48

                      @jv: Yeah okay that makes sense. Others are negging you and don’t agree with you yet that’s irrelevant? It’s clear you don’t care what anyone thinks so no point in continuing a pointless discussion.

                      • jv on 28/07/2023 - 14:49

                        @bobwokeup:

                        Yeah okay that makes sense.

                        No problem… Have a great day.

                      • kiriakoz on 29/07/2023 - 19:08
                        +2

                        @bobwokeup: I hate to stand up for jv, especially when he's being a twat but negs mean nothing on here. People neg for the pettiest reasons and there's also a neg pile on, more people do it once one/two people start doing it. We did evolve from pack animals after all…

                        • bobwokeup on 29/07/2023 - 19:15

                          @kiriakoz: True that I was more referring to his comments and then the negs just topped it off. If jv was more considerate of others it wouldn’t even be a thing.

                          • kiriakoz on 29/07/2023 - 20:23

                            @bobwokeup: I just think jv is a bellend and that's irrespective of whether people neg him or not. He could be voted the first king of Australia after we become a republic with a 99% approval rating, I've already made my mind up about him.

          • iDroid on 30/07/2023 - 20:12
            +2

            @bobwokeup: You must be new here…

      • Lichen6420 on 27/07/2023 - 15:17
        +2

        You don't have to use TOU or demand tariffs with Ergon.

        Tariff 11 prices are pretty reasonable compared to elsewhere and solar FIT with Ergon is 13.441 c/kWh in from July 2023.

        If you want good ROI upgrade to a bigger solar system and export more to cover the cost of your imported power.

        • SlickMick on 28/07/2023 - 09:15

          I'm not so sure. There are conversations happening that perhaps you should pay to export to the grid (more so I think that the grid is there for you at night).
          The story is, poor people with no panels are paying for the grid while those that can afford solar panels aren't paying their share.

          Maybe they'll just keep compensating pensioners, but I think eventually there will be some new charges from electricity providers.

      • Waltervp on 28/07/2023 - 09:29

        Tasmania was the same, Aurora. But now we can get 1stEnergy from the mainland, though no body seems to know this! Poorly advertised perhaps. . Much better feed in rate, and i swapped. I think you find you might have Globird in bundaberg now.

        • teacherer on 28/07/2023 - 10:08

          Thanks but "WE CAN'T LOCATE THE DATA NEEDED TO GIVE YOU A QUOTE AT THIS TIME"/

    • hueylewis on 28/07/2023 - 21:19

      ha ha, and get three fifths of fk all difference. lol

  • AngoraFish on 27/07/2023 - 13:46
    +11

    With my solar system I've never paid more than $150 in a month for electricity at current rates, summer is a third of that. As you say, that's a 9+ year break-even period right there assuming you completely disconnect from the grid and can cover 100% of your use (otherwise you'll still be paying the daily connection fee either way).

    Sure, power prices are increasing for now, but you can't assume that this will continue forever. A lot of wholesale generating capacity is coming into the system over the next few years, the Ukraine war won't last forever, plus things like local grid-connected network battery storage are starting to come online to suck up everyone's over-capacity from rooftop solar.

    And let's not get into the fact that you could put that $11k in the bank right now at 5.5% annually…

    So, yeah, you can either reduce your power bills by buying a battery system, or save money, but not both.

    • ssfps on 28/07/2023 - 03:06
      +5

      Sure, power prices are increasing for now, but you can't assume that this will continue forever

      It will continue until society-as-we-know-it comes to an end. There will just be another crisis to lend validity to the ever inflating currency, and another excuse why wages don't quite track the inflation measurement.

      • AngoraFish on 28/07/2023 - 10:35

        Actual evidence, as opposed to your individual perception, suggests otherwise https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistic…

        • LFO on 28/07/2023 - 13:33
          -6

          "Actual evidence, as opposed to" …

          "Evidence" conveniently proclaimed by a government body.
          They wouldn't fib to us, would they?

          • RefusdClassification on 28/07/2023 - 15:08

            @LFO: In my experience, the truth is the antipode of whatever the government says. The govt is as reliable a source of information as 1984's "Ministry of Truth".

        • AngoraFish on 28/07/2023 - 21:49
          +8

          Woah, the tinfoil hats are really on display tonight, eh?

          • ssfps on 29/07/2023 - 02:14
            +1

            @AngoraFish: What are you talking about, we're at war with inflation, we've always been at war with inflation!

            • nightmarez3k on 31/07/2023 - 18:22
              +1

              @ssfps: War against inflation should be a war against the government itself and US printing presses and Fait currencies.

              Who created the inflation? Wasn't us common people making things creating value.

          • LFO on 29/07/2023 - 20:34

            @AngoraFish: Are they?
            What color are you wearing?
            Does it work?

        • tessel on 29/07/2023 - 21:14

          Mate, the whole economy is inflationary. Look at anything important that people consume and prices over the years. Has food, petrol, houses etc. ever come down and continued to stay down? How are real wages going?

    • Ultimate Gattai on 30/07/2023 - 14:53

      Wait, what bank is giving you 5.5% annually? I'd be interested in using them for my long term savings (currently using RAMs online saver).

  • freefall101 on 27/07/2023 - 13:58
    +1

    All the batteries are going into cars right now, once demand drops below supply across the board it’ll come down.

    • jv on 27/07/2023 - 14:51
      +3

      once demand drops

      when will that be?

      • DoctorCalculon on 27/07/2023 - 22:36
        +17

        You need to search for a bargain on crystal balls.

        • Nugs on 28/07/2023 - 11:14
          +2

          magic eight balls are cheaper though
          .

      • smartazz104 on 28/07/2023 - 14:56

        After… now.

        • jv on 28/07/2023 - 15:04

          I don't think demand is dropping.

      • freefall101 on 28/07/2023 - 13:01
        +12

        Lol, what planet are you living on.

        EV sales increased five fold between 2018 and 2022. Most cars made will be EVs by 2030. Batteries are perfectly reliable, there are millions of them on roads around the world.

        • hueylewis on 28/07/2023 - 21:21
          -7

          as long as those african children keep mining the lithium by hand in africa. so much for the civil rights movement

          • freefall101 on 29/07/2023 - 01:32
            +7

            @hueylewis: The largest supplier of lithium in the world is Australia, followed by Chile and China.

            • hueylewis on 29/07/2023 - 04:17
              -5

              @freefall101: Yeah, nah, wasn’t talking about australia, thanks for the lame attempt at deflecting from slavery. There are No slave mines in australia

              • freefall101 on 29/07/2023 - 04:34
                +3

                @hueylewis: I’m not deflecting from slavery at all, you’re just blaming the wrong thing with lithium in EVs - there’s a good chance any EV has no lithium from Africa in it at all, let alone mined by slavery.

                You’re probably thinking of cobalt. In which case get off your phone or computer because you’re supporting slavery via using it.

                • hueylewis on 29/07/2023 - 11:24
                  -5

                  @freefall101: I will give up the tech when you do comrade. same for all the solar made in ccp concentration camps in china. all pushed on by the ecofascists net zero fantasy. lithium mines in DRC, ghana, zimbabwe etc

                  • freefall101 on 29/07/2023 - 15:40
                    +4

                    @hueylewis: Ah, gotcha. You don’t give a shit about workers either, you’re just a climate change denialist.

                    Good luck with that.

                    • hueylewis on 29/07/2023 - 19:12
                      -1

                      @freefall101: keep drinking that kool aid, and glue your self to the road. enjoy.

        • infinite on 28/07/2023 - 22:07

          90% of China's EV producers are already filing for bankruptcy or about too, due to that demand never actualizing. Over 400 EV manufacturers world-wide have closed shop in the last 3 years. Entire football stadium sized fields of them have been dumped everywhere through the countrysides in China and India and they've been rotting for the better part of three years now. People aren't even stealing the dumped EV's, there is such little demand for them.

          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/stellanti…

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbq_o3l_d9c

          https://www.wired.co.uk/article/the-collapse-of-britishvolt

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SEfwoqKRU8

          https://au.sports.yahoo.com/real-reason-why-automakers-slash…

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA98DT8avQA

          29th March, 2023: The global electric vehicle (EV) market is reeling from one of the most dramatic collapses in monthly sales to date, with Rystad Energy research showing that only 672,000 units world-wide were sold in January, almost half of December 2022 sales and a mere 3% year-on-year increase over January 2022. The EV market share among all passenger car sales also tumbled to 14% in January, well down on the 23% seen in December.

          • freefall101 on 29/07/2023 - 01:50

            @infinite: Where is your link saying EV demand ended 5 years ago?

            Also you should keep doing your research and look at what happened in Q1. Hint - China slashed subsidies and sales fell, car makers cut prices in response and sales boomed.

            • infinite on 29/07/2023 - 21:16

              @freefall101: Bloomberg and Forbes both confirmed Q1 2023 was the worst quarter for EV sales in over 5 years. A whopping 50% drop in sales, world wide. The standard car market took back a whopping 7% of the entire car market from EV's.

  • mskeggs on 27/07/2023 - 14:06
    +4

    The cost of batteries has dropped, but demand has grown substantially, so the price reductions haven’t really made it to consumers.
    Tesla power wall competitors have dropped somewhat, and as you say, Tesla increased, with the result that prices are still high.

    My power rates have increased, and I can swap gas heating to RC AC, so I think a battery will be looking better economically. For people like retirees on a fixed income, it makes sense even now.

    There are smaller batteries too. You don’t have to size the battery to supply your maximum needs, better if it is regularly used to full capacity in terms of getting the best return.

  • GG57 on 27/07/2023 - 14:14
    +1

    Is it a consideration if you think you may or may not move from your residence before the costs are recovered?

    • us3rnam3tak3n on 31/07/2023 - 18:03

      Well it's obviously an asset when selling. I guess you have to assess whether you will recoup costs.

  • Drakesy on 27/07/2023 - 14:16
    +11

    Just buy an EV, the BYD actually works out as you pay for a battery (60kwh) and get a free car effectively, plug it into your house and voila! You have a car that powers your house.

    But yeah, they're coming down in price progressively, Solid state batteries are also looking likely to reach the market next year which will be a game changer for power density etc.

  • Mokr on 27/07/2023 - 14:16
    +2

    The issue is the grid requires a lot of money for upkeep.

    Gov still needs to pay to keep the grid active

    Which means yes you will be taxed one way or another

  • JimmyF on 27/07/2023 - 14:31
    +2

    Will home battery storage REALLY come down in price?

    Not really, demand for batteries will only increase, so no over supply as such to bring prices down.

  • franco cozzo on 27/07/2023 - 14:35
    -1

    if they can get more bodies (slaves) in the ground (literally) to produce the raw materials!

    • infinite on 28/07/2023 - 12:43
      -2

      I wonder which Green or Teal voter you triggered to downvote you?

  • GordonD on 27/07/2023 - 14:39
    +13

    Home batteries CAN come down in price. But that would require not building them out of the same lithium ion batteries that the car industry is competing for all they can get of, which is driving up the price.

    The way to get the price of home batteries down is to switch to an alternative technology that's inherently cheaper, and lasts longer. EV batteries have to be power dense, to maximise range. Home batteries don't have to be.

    Flow batteries would do the job better. Flow batteries have tanks for the unused and depleted working fluid. You can increase the capacity of the battery by just fitting it with bigger tanks. And they can be recharged effectively an infinite number of times.

    Iron air batteries would do the job cheaper. Iron air batteries are dirt cheap and be cycled many times longer than lithium.

    Neither of these technologies competes with EVs for the scarce and expensive elements like lithium.

    Alternatively, as more and more EV batteries reach the end of their useful life, they could be recycled whole into home batteries, rather than being broken down and the chemicals in them recycled into new EV batteries. EV batteries lose a bit of capacity each year, meaning the range of the EV gradually reduces over the years. They are usually considered to have reached the end of their life when the EV's range reduction has become a nuisance. But that's not a problem with home batteries, you just use more of them because the size and weight of a home battery doesn't matter. Instead of 10 years in the EV, then off to recycling, they'd be 10 years in the EV, then another 10 or 20 more in a home battery, then go to recycling.

    One place end of first life EV batteries are being looked at being used is in charging stations. EV charging rates are going up, and it takes a lot of expensive infrastructure to supply enough power fast enough to charging stations to charge multiple EVs simultaneously. Old EV battery packs could be trickle charged from the main supply, or solar, then discharged fast into EVs to charge them fast.

    • mskeggs on 27/07/2023 - 21:03

      And they can be recharged effectively an infinite number of times

      If only. The membrane needs replacing, and that is one of the costlier bits.

      Hopefully can be improved upon with time.

      • WhyAmICommenting on 30/07/2023 - 11:51

        Do tell? RedFlow advertise their batteries as basically maintenance free.

        • mskeggs on 30/07/2023 - 12:43
          +1

          As was explained to me by an investor about 5 years ago, the membranes need to be oversized to have a good useful life, or be regularly replaced. He was hopeful that manufacturing them at scale would greatly drop their prices, but that doesn’t seem to have happened.

  • burningrage on 27/07/2023 - 15:06
    +2

    The short answer is No.

    PW1 used to be sub $10k (no subsidy)
    PW2 when first came out was just around $11k (no subsidy)
    Now you can't install one unless you pay $16k (with no subsidy). Origin appears to be selling it for $13k as per OzB deal the other day.

    • dcep on 27/07/2023 - 16:41

      16k battery + solar system = 30k ?

      i heard 30k can get you geothermal (with no down time from weather / night time)

      of course you need to have a landed property to begin with.

      • urahara on 27/07/2023 - 17:48
        +5

        @burningrage : Dont be dumb comparing two

        Feature
        Powerwall 1
        Powerwall 2

        Capacity
        6.4 kWh
        13.5 kWh

        Power output
        3.3 kW continuous, 7 kW peak
        5 kW continuous, 7 kW peak

        Inverter
        Separate inverter required
        Integrated inverter

        • burningrage on 27/07/2023 - 19:48

          So are you saying price has been going down? Because I still have my tax invoice of how much I paid for PW2 and compare it now.

          • iDroid on 29/07/2023 - 20:28
            +2

            @burningrage: Yes the price has been going down.

            PW1 was $1562.5 per kWh
            PW2 is $740 per kWh

            That sounds like about half the price.

            • burningrage on 31/07/2023 - 12:30

              @iDroid: Well be my guest to get them if you feel that way. Cashflow wise I think you will worse off but do get them if you think it is "half the price"

              • iDroid on 31/07/2023 - 14:10

                @burningrage: Umm, I'm not saying the price is good.

                I'm not saying to buy them

                I am saying that given the pricing noted above, you get twice as much for your money today as you did back with PW1.

                It's math, not opinion.

                FWIW, I think powerwalls are overpriced and batteries for the most part do not make a lot of sense from a saving/investment/etc POV.

                They have their place, but I'll wait for them to be even cheaper.. (note I already have 13 kWh of batteries that cost me almost nothing due to subsidies a couple of years ago)..

      • Nugs on 28/07/2023 - 11:20
        +3

        @phunkydude
        "i heard 30k can get you geothermal"
        at the pub?
        .

  • FezMonkey on 27/07/2023 - 15:36
    +1

    Victoria just announced an interest-free loan for home batteries, to go along with the interest-free loan for panels.
    The battery loan is up to $8,800 I believe.

    Though you would probably have to have very particular circumstances to be financially benefiting from a battery. Seems to be more for enthusiasts at the moment.

    • netjock on 27/07/2023 - 16:40
      +2

      I guess if it is an interest free loan, thanks to all your fellow tax payers.

      If inflation is high enough and inflates away the debt.

      You think why doesn't power companies go to the government for an interest free loan and put in a big battery to supply cheap power. Maybe they know better.

      • Tleyx on 29/07/2023 - 13:17

        That free loan would be capped. So useless for companies

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