Will home battery storage REALLY come down in price?

hazwing on 27/07/2023 - 13:30

I swear people have been saying that home batteries will come down in price for ages and it's not worth the investment, and you should just get more solar (particularly from solar installers)

But looking at the cost of the tesla powerwall 2 it's actually gone up in price over time. Not sure about the cost of other battery storage options.
The sungrow batteries with hybrid inverter - can be had around ~$11,000 for ~9.6kwh. But when you add another battery stack to bring the storage capacity to 12.8kwh, it comes to being around a similar price to having a tesla powerwall 2 installed.

Doing some rough sums for my circumstance, I do agree that getting a battery will take quite some time to recover your costs (~8-10 years). But I'm still tempted to get it, just to insulate from future energy price rises, and to say F U to the demand tariff charges.

I already have a 6kw solar system which often has excess energy to the grid, so adding more solar would mean that I'd only be getting the FIT and there would be minimal additional self consumption. With FIT dropping and often being capped, adding more solar has little benefit and would also take 7.5-10 years to recover (depending on FIT/panel & inverter brand). If energy companies drop their EV plans that have cheap night time charging, it might then be worthwhile to have extra solar and try use the EV to soak up extra solar production, but failing that I don't see the point of adding more solar.

So in summary, should I just get a battery now, or will battery prices really go down in future?

Electrical & Electronics

Comments

        • netjock on 29/07/2023 - 22:01

          Why would you need interest free loan?

          You get it at scale. You get wholesale price for your feed in which means you can charge it midday when there is excess solar and sell when it higher between 3 - 9pm.

          As a company you also get depreciation benefits.

          Regular person buy a battery with after tax money (say 30% income tax), no depreciation, crap feed in rates, capped upside depending on your electricity rates and higher price of installation per kwh.

    • jdr on 28/07/2023 - 01:01
      -2

      Victoria just announced an interest-free loan for home batteries, to go along with the interest-free loan for panels.

      How can Dan afford that as well as the penalties for the Commonwealth Games fiasco?

      • infinite on 28/07/2023 - 12:46
        -1

        How can Dan afford that as well as the penalties for the Commonwealth Games fiasco?

        He can't.

        So as always, all Victorian's will just pay for it through increased state-level taxes.

    • Rob-4x4 on 28/07/2023 - 09:15
      +1

      I used the solar quotes calculator and for me in Ballarat with its crappy weather the break even for solar panels is 8 years and Batteries it is 17 years…

      So Solar panels are barely worth while.. how much longer than 8 years will the system last anyway before expensive maintenance is required ?

      And 17 year payback on a Battery just does not make economic sense at all

      https://www.solarquotes.com.au/

      Of course for others in areas with decent climates it will be very different, or if the energy retailers decide to jack the electricity prices even more even though wholesale prices have seen substantial drops this year the calculation will be very different…

      If you want to see how we are currently being shafted with retail electricity prices have a look at wholesale prices..They are now below the big spike that was used to justify the big retail price increases.

      https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistic…

      • infinite on 28/07/2023 - 12:55

        Most people don't ever bother to read their T&C's, but they should be aware that most home battery manufacturers require you to do yearly maintenance of the battery via a registered electrician and keep a log of the invoices for that maintenance, or they won't honor the actual warranty on them if you make a claim. My brother had a couple of co-workers get stung by that over the last year or two. The minimum cost for that maintenance check is about $300 plus a call-out fee.

        One of those two colleagues ended up in a position of having to buy a new battery after a bit less than two years. Being a GP, he had the contacts and cash to lodge consumer complaints and take the matter to claims court - he lost at every stage though due to failing to maintain the product as advised. The installer refused to help at any part the process despite never advising him about it. He looked into escalating the matter but legal fees would have been more than the cost of another battery. That put an end to her interest in solar batteries permanently & she sold her EV as well not too long after.

        • LVlahov on 28/07/2023 - 16:31

          Wow, I'd have to think it sounds like there is a valid claim against the installer there at the least, but good to know if this kind of thing is going on. An additional $300 annual charge pretty much blows the potential to payback the cost of a battery ever for most users (at current prices). I wonder if PowerWall batteries have that requirement though? For me if I was building and had the budget, I'd be ok with adding a PowerWall to the build, even if the payback period was long, as what is the weekly cost of having it anyway?..not much. Retrofitting it where we are now though.. it is just an unnecessary expense that offers very little. Paybacks pushed out to 10 years or more just aren't worth it. Need a solution at half the price, or power prices double what they are.

  • Ghost47 on 27/07/2023 - 16:25
    +4

    Nothing will come down in price; electricity, chips, petrol, rents etc. it is all baked into the system now.

    • eug on 28/07/2023 - 08:07
      +3

      Nothing will come down in price; electricity, chips, petrol, rents etc. it is all baked into the system now.

      Now? Hasn't that been the case since money was invented? A loaf of bread used to cost 5d, petrol was 5c/L, etc.

      • gaynamedpaul on 30/07/2023 - 14:14

        Since, money was replaced with "fiat" or an easy debased alternative they tell you is money.

        Real hard Money is actually not inflationary.

    • chrismelba on 28/07/2023 - 14:35

      TVs?

  • pharkurnell on 27/07/2023 - 16:52

    Supply and demand are the issue….

    • hueylewis on 28/07/2023 - 21:24
      +1

      ripping off tax payers to fund the subsidies for the elite gov employees and ruling class on big bucks in secure employment are the issue.

  • 7ekn00 on 27/07/2023 - 17:03
    +1

    Look at different technologies, flow batteries are much cheaper than Lithium based (and have some other advantages too)

    We use 3 x ZBM3's ;)

    • GordonD on 27/07/2023 - 18:43

      ZBM3

      What are those worth each, about $13K retail?

    • WhyAmICommenting on 30/07/2023 - 11:53

      How much were they?

      • 7ekn00 on 30/07/2023 - 12:06

        About $7k each wholesale, pickup with self install ;)

        But that was a couple years ago, they should be cheaper now with mass production!

        • WhyAmICommenting on 30/07/2023 - 12:08

          Wow top effort. I didn’t know you could self install. What about the electrical connection?

          • 7ekn00 on 30/07/2023 - 12:11
            +1

            @WhyAmICommenting: We are off-grid so self-install is pretty easy ;)

            I am assuming if you connect to a grid you would need a professional to at least sign off!

  • urahara on 27/07/2023 - 17:45
    +1

    There are alternative form of batteries which dont have to be of same size as vehicles.
    Price of those batteries will surely be different from lithium ion.
    Ex : Vanadium Flow Batteries
    If u want sleek Powerwall batteries for home , then obviously you gotta pay the premium price , but the will also come down in price in future as recycling kicks in.

  • mitt on 27/07/2023 - 18:13
    +1

    No.

    Efficiency gains for lithium chemistry have been realised. Economies of scale with manufacturing have been realised. We are now in a supply-constrained situation with the rare-earths that make up the majority of battery BOM & demand is going up.

    Prices will remain stable at best. More likely they will rise marginally as new deposits take a while to bring online especially in the west with enviromental regulations crippling development of new mining claims.

  • PissLUR on 27/07/2023 - 19:07

    Yes. Indonesia is on the road to manufacturing these lithium batteries in mass scale.

    • hueylewis on 28/07/2023 - 21:27

      by the big wall street multi national companies. they are using indonesia for cheap labour because they are even cheaper than ccp chinese slave labour.

      • infinite on 28/07/2023 - 22:42
        +1

        The CCP are using orphans, ethnic minorities and those who openly disagree with the communist party as literal slave labour. There is no cheaper labour than slave labour.

  • Trying2SaveABuck on 27/07/2023 - 21:21

    Of course but it wont come down for a long time

  • payless69 on 28/07/2023 - 07:16

    Tube: wil prowse to
    browse future home solar.

  • jacross on 28/07/2023 - 07:56
    +1

    It's not that batteries will get cheaper. It's that batteries NEED to get cheaper before they pass a CBA. If your breakeven period is longer than the expected life of the battery then you lose money.

    That's the principle. I haven't done sums in a few years. If you are confident in your sums…sure.

  • DingoBilly on 28/07/2023 - 08:08

    Yes, but it will take a while.

    Look at EV's - they have been expensive for ages and at times cars like the Tesla went up in price for the same model. Recently with competition the prices have come down a whole bunch with more options, but they're still fairly expensive. If you were to predict the future though, you'd almost certainly say EV's will keep coming down in price and there will be a lot more options to choose from.

  • 2esc on 28/07/2023 - 09:08

    They will eventually but some actually have gone up in comparison to a few years ago.

  • Rob-4x4 on 28/07/2023 - 09:08
    +1

    Do you really need a Lithium battery for home storage ?

    Lithium batteries advantage is high storage density and reasonably low weight which makes it ideal for BEVS, Power tools, portable electronics etc. But this comes at a price…

    But for many people for a home battery does it matter if the battery uses another technology that is larger and heavier but cheaper than Lithium ? Other posters have mentioned the technologies like flow batteries of even old school lead acid…

    You won't have the trendy Telsa logo on your home battery and it may take up more space.. but it also will be a lot more wallet friendly ..

    • Switchblade88 on 28/07/2023 - 11:23

      Lead-acid would make sense if it was cheaper per kWh, but if you cost out the sheer volumetric capacity required compared to (say) a PowerWall, you need to invest in a whole shed for storage. Then there's also the total life cycles available/output current and the like to consider.

  • klonky on 28/07/2023 - 09:40
    +3

    There seems to be poor planning regarding batteries and renewable energy. Individual owners shouldnt be needed to invest in battery storage, it would make more sense for storage infrastructure be installed within suburbs so that there doesnt need to be so much investment in massive power lines. We should be getting to a point where homes power their local batteries and rely less on importing power.

    • infinite on 28/07/2023 - 13:06

      That's not how renewable power or batteries work in practice though, unfortunately.

      The batteries have an extremely limited volume of energy they can hold and an even more limited capacity for how many hours they can hold those charges.

      Most solar is generated early/mid hours of the day, but not needed until later at night. By the time the energy is required later at night when it hit's a mass demand time, the batteries no longer have the charge in them to distribute. That of course is only even discussing summer, because for 6 months of the year, solar doesn't even generate that much output due to environmental limiters like it being overcast, grey or rainy weather.

  • Naigrabzo on 28/07/2023 - 10:17
    +3

    I think home batteries won't come down in the price for at leat 20 years.

    It has always been +10 years from present for many years now.

    The cars are taking up ya lithium YO!!

    Are we 100% sure that EV and batteries are the way forward? I reckon we will have a huge pile of batteries requiring complex recycling which may not be feasible in the next 10 years. My phone battery only lasts about 2 years and starts to degrade fast. I am not confident on car batteries lasting more than 7 years …. which is their warranty.

  • Gekov on 28/07/2023 - 10:32
    -3

    " I do agree that getting a battery will take quite some time to recover your costs (~8-10 years)."

    8-10 years AT LEAST.
    By that time you'll need new batteries.
    So you'll never pay it off.

    If you think that buying new [highly polluting in manufacture] batteries every few years will "save-the-planet" you're deluded.

    • smartazz104 on 28/07/2023 - 14:57
      +1

      You're right, so there's no use in doing anything about it, you may continue to line the pockets of Big Oil instead.

      • LVlahov on 28/07/2023 - 16:40
        -2

        Energy efficiency still represents the biggest and best win. As a person who used to sell solar I'd come across houses using 4kW a day, and others using 44kW, with the former doing just about everything they could in terms of energy efficiency (insulation, double glazing, energy efficient appliances, switching off lights when not in use, solar hot water etc)..

        …vs having 3 gigantic barely filled fridges, leaving every light in the home on, having electric hot water, aircons running full time, poor insulation etc.

        Not bringing in people from third world to first another huge pain free way to keep local emissions and energy demand down, and global demand lower than it otherwise would be.

        There is no possibility of environmental friendliness in a nation undertaking ponzi population growth as a result of mass migration. It will eat up every possible gain made elsewhere, as EVERY product has its own environmental footprint, even supposedly enviro friendly ones, and demand for them only grows, and does not shrink, with every new body added via migration.

      • Gekov on 28/07/2023 - 19:34
        -3

        "You're right, so there's no use in doing anything about it"

        About what?
        A fake "climate crisis" which is really a highly exaggerated narrative regarding a fraction of a degree global warming over 200 years, which is just a recovery from the the Little Ice Age?

        Even if netzero, is possible, it will not give us nicer weather.
        It's merely self-flagellation in a new age globalwarming ® religion.

        Climate policies are based on computer simulations of the atmosphere that are
        *** THOROUGHLY FLAWED ***
        https://www.netzerowatch.com/climate-models-behind-net-zero-…

        The paper, by US climate writer Willis Eschenbach, describes the results of a review of the computer code inside NASA’s Model E climate simulation. It shows that, far from being based on basic physics, in many places the model incorporates crude corrections to make the output look vaguely reasonable.

        It’s clear that in many places the physics in the computer code is simply wrong and gives ludicrous output. But instead of fixing it, NASA "scientists" have simply put crude corrections to hide the problem. This destroys the credibility of NASA’s predictions.”

  • Switchblade88 on 28/07/2023 - 11:38
    +1

    I was doing the sums the other day for a battery only (no solar) setup, since my peak vs offpeak rates are about 50c differrent. If I load-shift by charging during the day at 11c/kWh, then output during peak instead of paying 61c/kWh, then the payback time for a battery becomes viable.

    Given an average of 8kWh peak usage, and an installed cost of $1200/kWh for the battery, then my payback time drops to under 7 years which is seemingly better than a classic solar system. I don't have to worry about FITs dropping to nil, I would have power available in a blackout etc which are nice bonuses.

    • 7ekn00 on 28/07/2023 - 12:31
      +2

      This is exactly what we do with flow batteries! They can be charged by fuel (not economical lately), solar, wind, tide, hydro or grid ;)

      The Tesla battery in SA does exactly the same thing and makes Tesla over a $million per year ;)

    • LVlahov on 28/07/2023 - 16:46

      Alternatively you could switch to a plan that does not charge so high in peak periods, or shift usage (if possible) away from the peak period. It would be the best of those two scenarios which could then be compared to the battery calculation to see which works out better.

      I think a well matched solar system to usage and FiT, in a high solar area, also should have a payback better than 7 years, perhaps 5. But with those caveats, for your situation, it might work out as you say.

      • Switchblade88 on 28/07/2023 - 17:05

        I'm limited in options with a rental property - at least a battery is a relatively simple relocation issue as compared to solar, with essentially only a single cable to connect unless you get fancy with whole-of-house backup power.

        If I was on the only flat rate plan available at 33c/kWh I'd be about 10% more cost each month, and would also not have any benefit available for a standalone battery since there wouldn't be any rate difference to make use of.

        • LVlahov on 28/07/2023 - 20:05

          Ah ok, but isn't installing in a rental a bit of a risk as well? Like what if they decide to sell the property within a year after install? Sure you can uninstall the battery and take it with you, but a bit of a hassle and expense.

          I guess there are no perfect solutions just at the moment.
          I like what other people suggest of EVs being able to plug in and supply peak energy to the home, but a bit away from them being affordable and having that functionality built in too (beyond boiling a kettle).

  • CanadaAye on 28/07/2023 - 12:35
    +2

    I don't think they will come down in price any time soon, in fact I think they will charge more.

  • affable on 28/07/2023 - 12:46

    The grid is an incredibly cheap battery, so unless you want a battery for times of blackouts, just dump excess solar into the grid and pull it back out when you need it. This works especially well if you have a TOU tariff, I used to dump in at 12c during the day, and charge my EV overnight at 8c, giving a "grid battery" cost of -4c in the process! Alas I think those days are long gone, as is my EV.

    • pulpfiction on 30/07/2023 - 20:28

      Interesting. What happened to the EV?

  • LFO on 28/07/2023 - 13:38

    Co$t should not be the only variable to consider.

    Having some certainty of uninterrupted power supply (via battery) is a benefit that, of course, has its own cost (like anything else: cars, phones, fridges, air conditioning, etc)
    Worthy or not? For each individual is different.

    • WhyAmICommenting on 30/07/2023 - 12:07

      The surety of power during an outage requires additional hardware and cost usually.

      • LFO on 30/07/2023 - 12:34

        A properly set Powerwall and Gateway will do.

  • gromit on 28/07/2023 - 13:45

    it isn't the outright cost that is the issue, it is currently it does not make economical sense to purchase for most households, i.,e. they will age out before they have paid for themselves. Eventually they will become viable for most, but that isn't now.

  • FlyingMiffy on 28/07/2023 - 14:17

    Not many battery options for 3 phase powered homes either…

  • quog on 28/07/2023 - 15:54
    +1

    sure, but your insurance will go sky high.

    • LVlahov on 28/07/2023 - 16:48

      Are they asking about batteries in home insurance these days and applying a penalty? My renewal is coming up and haven't taken out a new policy in a long time so wouldn't know. It would make sense for them to do so given the known risks I think.

  • Antikythera on 28/07/2023 - 17:47
    -3

    i've got a self built pumped hydro setup at home. during the day I use solar power to pump water from my pool back into the mains water system and then i let it back out over night when i need power.

    • LVlahov on 28/07/2023 - 20:08

      Err.. pump water back into the mains system? Is that legal? I thought you weren't allowed to permit back flow to the mains system.

      Or perhaps you could set up an intermediary/two tank system? Pump it into your secondary tank, and then release it back to the primary when needing to use/generate power.

    • Maxi Pad on 28/07/2023 - 20:26
      +1

      This sounds incredibly dodgy… Your neighbors would end up drinking your pool water. It might be BS as I'm not even sure it would be possible.

  • AsSeenOnTv on 28/07/2023 - 20:52

    The Alpha ESS batteries are pretty good value. 13kwh but a lot cheaper than Tesla.
    Payback period is still fairly long but viable. It all comes down to the difference between your fit and usage tariffs.
    Good luck

  • hueylewis on 28/07/2023 - 21:17
    -3

    as soon as al gore and his wall st buddies and the banks, found out that you can make billions from this climate scare, it became a scam. the biggest scam in history.

  • bigbadboogieman on 29/07/2023 - 00:33

    You can say FU to demand tariffs by contacting your retailer and opting out.

    • ssdexecutor82 on 31/07/2023 - 20:19

      Is this possible in South east qld?

  • Mrgreenz on 29/07/2023 - 08:33

    Don't even worry about it, "cheap " renewables gonna hit any day now and drive prices down

  • Dsiee on 29/07/2023 - 09:19

    This is an unusual one. The components in a home battery have all become significantly cheaper but the price of most hasn't budged for years.

    My wholesaler has some units, 5kwh inverter plus 10kwh battery in a nice weatherproof secondary enclosure, for just under $6k. These don't require much more labour than a regular inverter to install. These are the best value I have seen. They would repay themselves, for some users, in 7 years which I use as my benchmark as to whether it is worth it. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be much of a push for them. Having the backup circuit is valuable to come people.

    You really need to decide on your own threshold. Sure the price will come down but everyone hits a different point where it becomes worth it.

    I don't think it will be long until network operators require the installation of a battery with new solar systems larger than x to decrease the evening consumption peak and midday voltage creep.

    • hazwing on 29/07/2023 - 19:57

      Which brand inverter and batteries is this? $6000 price would mean pay back period is much sooner. (provided that everything works fine with this cheap system)

      • gromit on 30/07/2023 - 14:05

        key word their "Wholesaler", so add GST, profit, shipping and installation.

  • Sinnerator on 29/07/2023 - 09:25

    research some DIY options from offgrid websites and put together a system for less than half the price and have a sparky connect it all up
    IANAL

  • beach bum on 29/07/2023 - 11:39

    One old car battery + camp Solar panel with controller + 1000w inverter j-car type eBay = 2 x 240v power points , depending on residual state of battery smaller inverter Ect ect , Free Power ,
    if you already have these things ,
    otherwise their all fairly cheap , even a single new deep cycle at super heap auto is less than $200 and less on sale , single small inverter Powertech 1000w $100 on eBay and 160-200W Solar panel with controller can be scared up on sale here on ozbargain , kings 4wd , resellers gummy ect….

  • SpendLess on 29/07/2023 - 12:04

    There are some interesting things going on in this space with EV having bi directional charging which means they can also be used as a battery at home. Great if you have free charging or solar at home and WFH

    Good podcast to listen to if you are interested

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Gd7rFucTwhAkSwM5bXnHS?si=m…

    • hazwing on 29/07/2023 - 19:58

      Hmm… I'll have a listen later. But I feel they've been talking about this for some time, but seems very limited progress

  • tehsnrub on 29/07/2023 - 15:48

    CSIRO GenCost 23 was released a 2 weeks ago. They are pretty reasonable at predicting future pricing.

    https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/news/2023/july/gencost

    • foolsgold on 29/07/2023 - 20:17
      +1

      confirm I am from the future

  • luffyex2010 on 29/07/2023 - 16:44

    Cost excluding installation cost…..
    Tesla Powerwall 2

    Date Wholesale Price Change
    2017 $9,000
    2018 – February $9,600 +$600
    2018 – October $12,250 +$2,650
    2019 – July $11,700 -$550
    2020 – October $12,500. +$800
    2021 – February $13,300 +$800
    2021 – May $12,750 -$550
    2022 – March $13,700 +$950
    2022 – May $14,650 +$950
    2022 – October $16,500 +$1,850
    2023 – February $14,599 -$1,901
    2023 – April $12,900 -$1,699

    • urahara on 30/07/2023 - 14:04

      You gotta adjust price to inflation

  • cwangv on 30/07/2023 - 10:06

    Lol!

  • MindGrenadius on 30/07/2023 - 10:19

    As more and more grids shift to wind/solar/battery, the demand will be ever increasing and the supply of the minerals required are finite and can only scale to a point.

    I've got some simple standalone battery systems I'm using for most of my smaller stuff but I think short to mid term they will only get pricier. I think only advances in revolutionary tech like solid state etc will see any meaningful change to prices

  • bluegumflat on 30/07/2023 - 15:49

    Great thread. I was having this convo just last night with neighbours. I dont think battery prices will rapidly drop any time soon. As for ROI, that depends on your circumstance and your state. Here in SA we believe if you are on a wholesale price plan like Amber then batteries should pay for themselves well within their warrantee - with the added benefit of less disruption in blackouts. This should be the case for ToU plans as well but all of these just upped their offpeak and shoulder rates significantly.

    Yes, a V2H EV would be great alternative but for now; there arent many vehicles that allow this (The LEAF being the main exception), the bi directional charger is still being assessed by the Grid managers and the cost of the charger is greater than a sizeable home battery.
    https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/ev-v2g-sa-mb2764/

    The unknown for me is energy prices. If they drop significantly then the equation changes.

  • jerjergege on 31/07/2023 - 12:08

    Invest in a company that is working on solid state batteries.
    Invest in a company that wants to start manufacturing batteries in Australia, so we don't need to sell lithium to China, which is sold off to an American company, which sells it back to us.

  • djak on 31/07/2023 - 15:36

    Unless you live "off the grid", batteries for a house are a false economy except in the most niche circumstance. The grid will have the economies of scale and be more resilient and reliable then a home battery system that will need to be maintained and parts replaced. Even if you break after 8-10years; your batteries will be due for replacement and will take another 8-10 years so what is the point?

    It would be more useful if excess supply is housed and managed by the grid as a solution rather than at the individual level.

  • Spamazon on 31/07/2023 - 16:59

    @jdr he's spending someone else's money

  • LoserScott on 31/07/2023 - 17:42

    With poor government infrastructure why bother asking this question.

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