This was posted 1 year 3 months 29 days ago, and might be an out-dated deal.

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Tesla Powerwall $15,495 ($13,995 after 5 years) (Includes Standard Installation) @ Origin Energy

1213

Save $2,300 off the 13.5 kW Tesla Powerwall.

Plus sign up to the Origin Loop virtual power plant (VPP) and stay connected for five years to save a further $1,500.

You may choose whichever Origin Energy plan you like, however, the 14c FIT is only applicable to Solar Boost Plus plans.

Interested in everyone's thoughts around VPP and if the discount is worth the intermittent power drain.

Interest free plans available.

Not available in all areas. Price for a standard installation within 50 km of the Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Wollongong and Gold Coast CBDs.

Mod 26/7: Edited title. The $1500 off after 5 years is included in the $13,995 price (thus why it says 'from $13,995'), it is $15,495 initially ($2,300 off).

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          • +2

            @NuttyGoodness: It will be at about 90% capacity then. This isn't 1995 any more.

          • @NuttyGoodness: For lithium batteries 80% remaining capacity is considered EOL so usually you can expect 80% at the end of whatever warranty period is offered from each manufacturer.

        • Increases? Labor have promised they'll be going down within a year or two.

      • +1

        Does that include the solar installation? Or is it 8 years for solar + 8 years for battery?

      • I think you'll find the 8 years was for a battery + solar system. If you did the solar only it would be ~5 years so the battery by itself is probibly 10 years which is why both together is around 8 years.

      • +2

        So many mathematicians in Ozb 🤯

      • +1

        That calculator shows a 30-year payback for the battery around Ballarat, which is interesting but probably still optimistic

      • +1

        I did it 6.6kw Solar and Tesla PW2

        Solar: 7 yrs, 5 mths
        Batteries: 29 yrs

        Already have Solar almost payed off in 5 years as FIT used to be higher.
        been 41 days so far in Melb under 10kw with my 6.6kw system.
        So you will not get a full 13.5 from the battery every day.

      • in vic, combine that with ovo ev plan. Charge from grid overnight for 8c per kw, export all your solar for 10c during the day. adds about 26c per day to your roi calculator :)

    • +3

      Might be different if you have an EV and charge car using Solar or backup. But then again EV's can be set to charge at Peak Solar Output times. Could work out better considering petrol prices

      • at this time, it does not make sense to charge ev from a puny 13kwh battery pack. Most ev has at least 50kwh battery pack

    • +3

      Depends on inflation/future energy prices. Dont try to figure out ROI on current energy prices.
      I dont know anyone that invested in solar/batteries over the years who regrets it.

      Telsa does charge a premium tho and $14k isnt exactly the cheapest around. LiFePO batteries are between $120 and $140 kWh post covid. I'd DIY but im sure you can find cheaper kits around.

      • +15

        Like once every 2 to 3 years?

        • +3

          For half an hour, at 1am 🤣

      • +1

        i'll add that you can subscribe to time of use power plan. With battery, you can have minimal or no load shift at all, taking the stress of telling family member when to use stuff maintaining harmony, and sparing brain cycle from thinking about when to run dish washer, washing machine, ehws and etc.

    • As soon as I get a battery I'm going with Amber Electric. They let you access electricity at wholesale pricing… So when the feed-in tariff is over 50c/kWh you can make bank. When the feed-in tariff is negative you can recharge your battery for free (and get paid for the privilege!).

  • +8

    How long does a Tesla battery last roughly? I’m considering going solar and battery but cost I’ve seen put it over $15,000. I spend roughly $1200 year on power for a 3 bed townhouse, I feel like even with prices going up I may just break even come 10 years from now..
    I’m hoping in 5 year’s battery technology is much cheaper and the cost will be sun $5K for battery, similar to drop in cost of solar, any thoughts?

    • -1

      10yr warranty. Everyone hopes new tech is cheaper, like iPhones. But every new iPhone seems more expensive, then no one wants older models of iPhones. You'll find the same - the next generations of batteries would be better and might be priced accordingly.

      I have lots of solar, and a Tesla Powerwall. I love it.

      • +18

        I see what your saying with iPhones, but teslas have dropped in price, solar panels have dropped in price and other expensive new tech has dropped in price, iPhone keep their prices artificially inflated which for the market power they have they can, but batteries, anyone can make a battery. 10 years ago there was 3 solar manufacturers and the cost for some panels were north of 15K, now there everywhere.. I would love lots of solar panels but roof space might be an issue for me

      • +10

        20 years ago a 1.5kw solar system was 15-20k installed. Even if you don't count any government rebates these days you're looking at about 8k for a 6.6kw system. Hopefully batteries have the same scale of economics that solar saw and we see prices coming down even as the tech is increasing.

        • +1

          This is exactly what I’m hoping for! I’ve seen more and more companies come into the battery market recently including Panasonic, Sony, LG and Polytechnic and that’s just the main ones I found from a quick google search.
          Just like the number of electric cars coming into the market from 2 years ago, and Tesla having to drop price to compete I’m almost certain they will drop.
          I’m holding off for now, considering batteries have 0 resale value and I’m not currently experiencing rolling blackouts I don’t see the need to cough up $15,000.

        • +2

          you can get a 6.6kw for $3k - what $8k

          • +3

            @botchie: I said without government grants, you pay 3k out of pocket but it has 3-4k of STC rebates applied

            • @donkcat: Also depends what quality panels and inverter you are getting, it can costs from $6 - $10K easily.

          • +2

            @botchie: Through a mob like arise or sun boost? You’re lucky if the house doesn’t burn down…

            • +2

              @NoDowt: Nah, you can get Trina panels and sungrow inverter for about 3.5k, cheaper if you get Solis inverter , they are all installed by accredited guys, plenty of bad reviews on $11k installers which after you question drop their price by 50% , too many scammers

        • batteries have reached a hard limit on making them be more cost efficient. Even the new tech that's being toughted will only be marginal in improvements and years away.

          • +2

            @superroach: Battery prices have gone from $US1000 per kWh in 2010, to $US141/kWh in 2021, technology hasn't changed much in that time just production has increased significantly and there is still so much growth in this space with many giga factories under construction. The issue is probably more that most countries are going to want EV's, as the price drops the demand will grow which will slow the price reductions.

          • @superroach: WeLion have already started providing NIO with solid state batteries that are 40% more energy dense than traditional lithium-ion batteries:
            https://electrek.co/2023/07/07/nio-solid-state-battery-user-…

      • +1

        But the iPhones from previous years can be bought for less when the new generation are released. You either hold out and get old units cheaper, or hold out and get new units for the same price, but are better. Either way, holding out is a sensible option if you aren't needing it now.

    • +1

      Looks like they've gone up. I looked at getting a Tesla Powerwall 2 through AGL 2 years ago and it was going to cost me $11,2000, although I think that included $1000 discount for the VPP, I just found the email with the quote

      • +11

        A hundred and twelve grand?!

        ;)

        • +6

          No, 11 grand and 2000 :)

      • They have, and people don't ever mention that, not the terrible ROI for a lot of places in the country

      • "Looks like they've gone up." Ummm, yep
        we got our AGL VPP PW2 for $4500, five year 'contract' is up in December this year so we can switch electricity providers without penalty after that ($1000 per part of the year early leave fee)
        .

    • +3

      If you spend $1200 per year on electricity then just wait. No point investing in battery. You still need to charge the battery somehow. If by solar, then still the solar will make up about half of the savings on its own, so you will have about $600 per year left to save by the battery.
      If you would not have panels and use it to charge at night (cheap EV or off-peak rates) and offset it during the day/peak then still you are saving the difference between the peak and off-peak. So you never get the full $1200 saving per year.
      I would expect in next few years the prices would go down and most likely some kind of government subsidy will come similar to the solar rebate. In your case, I would wait. I do have battery system (DIY), but my bill is $1200 per quarter :-D

    • +1

      our bill last year total approx $750 but use gas for hot water and heating, only have 2kw solar panels from 10 years ago which was about $4k and payback took 7 years. our bill used to avg $1200 per year

      13k battery will take a while to payback for sure with your avg bill consumption

  • +4

    Plus, sign up to the Origin Loop virtual power plant (VPP) and stay connected for five years to save a further $1,500.

    Wonder hwhat effect this has on battery longevity (i.e. if it reduces lifespan by >10% you end up worse off.)

    • +23

      "Origin reserves the right to discharge entire battery, but may "preserve the capacity in the Battery so that it can be used for your consumption at times determined by us."….. interesting.

    • +6

      In load following mode, the default mode, the battery will fill during the day with PV and discharge to meet load in the evening. This typically results in roughly 1 full cycle per day.

      In a VPP the battery might do things like fill from the grid before dawn to avoid placing a load on the grid during the small morning peak, or fully discharge to the grid in the evening peak.

      Whether or not the VPP case results in more cycles is entirely down to how aggressive the VPP operator is, and how volatile the spot market is.

      I wouldn't expect the VPP operation to make a massive difference to total cycles, but the cycles that get used would hopefully get used at smarter times. Origin wants access to a fleet of batteries that are in the good shape so rogering a battery by constantly cycling it for negligible profit isn't in anyone's interest.

      • +2

        laughed at "rogering a battery"

    • +10

      I can comment on this. They barely trigger the VPP event. Over the past 2.5 years on the program, they triggered 25 times on my battery, each time they use between 1-5kwh. Compensation wise, each month you receive $20 no matter the battery was used or not.

      The downside of the vpp program is that you will be locked in the program for 5 years, which means you cannot switch to cheaper provider (i.e. right now i can't lock in with Ovo for cheaper). I got a very very cheap deal with VPP so it is worth it. My total installation is $9.1k for 5.3kw solar + 9.8kwh LG battery, the solar itself would cost me $6k so adding battery is no brainer for me.

      If you have not had solar, maybe worth checking getting the solar panels + battery (DC coupled LiFeO3), you can get the whole thing for the price of the pw2

      • +1

        They barely trigger the VPP event. Over the past 2.5 years on the program, they triggered 25 times on my battery,

        Previous performance is no indication of future performance.

        When they have enough of these on the scheme, expect them to use them a LOT more.

        • I get your point on the fine print and their right. But to be honest, it is fairly easy to have the battery does thing the way you want. When needed, you can just disconnect the battery/inverter from the internet and just tell Origin, oops my internet is kaput. You have physical control of the unit, that means they can only do so much. The more battery is online, the less likely your battery will be in use because the grid is actually more stable.

  • +7

    Why do most people have a mentality that buying a battery back up for the home needs to be an investment that and not something that just provides benefit, convenience and redundancy…it'd typically (not recent times) be like when you buy a car. You know you are going to lose out when you replace it…but you buy for the benefits. If you win great, it's a bonus..

    • +47

      Back up for? I’ve had one power outage in 5 years and that lasted 10 mins.. if we were like what I’ve seen in South Africa with rolling blackouts each day in summer I would have 10 batteries hooked up lol

      • +4

        Cheaper electricity when the sun doesn't shine enough to be energy positive and avoid hefty peak time pricing, including at night?
        Also being part of the VPP with all the added benefits with Tesla Autobidder?

        • +1

          I agree with the hefty peak times! My previous house was flat rate, now I’ve moved I have peak and off peak energy rates. My peak times are 3pm to 8pm and it’s 40 cents a KWH!!! But if I had solar the sun usually shines during that time for 6 months of the year and that should cover that usage fairly easily.

          But in winter/autumn I guess avoiding the 3pm to 8pm peak using the battery could work

        • +3

          But that's not convenience - those points come under the 'investment' umbrella

      • -1

        Power lines in my area are underground, there are never blackouts. But in certain parts of Melbourne, blackouts seem to happen annually for multiple days.

      • +5

        Everyone's situation is different. I've had about 5 in the past year. Most last around 3 - 5 hours, some over 12h..

        If you live in a tree'd area and you have over head supply lines, then things are very different.

        My battery backup has served me very well. I paid almost nothing for a 13kwh battery + solar about 3 years ago… (rebates were amazing, only cost me $5,790 for 6.6kw panels (jinko 330W Cheetah) and 13kwh batteries (2 x Growatt GBLI6531) and hybrid inverter (Growatt SPH5000).. works a treat when the power is out!

        I've recently added another 6.6kw system since my original 6.6kw system (with batteries) above has totally paid for itself in 3 years.

        • Amazing price!! Was the price just cheaper since you didn’t have a Tesla power wall or just due to the time you installed with the rebates? Your setup sounds very similar to what I would like to spend for the benefit.

          • +2

            @Iwantthebestprice: Rebates - Back in Feb 2020 - SA Home Battery Subsidy (Ratesetter) $6,000.

            So total cost without rebates for full system was $11,790.

            My new 6.6kw system cost $3,700 after rebates (STC Financial Incentives $2,460), or $6,160 before rebates (15 x Jinko 440W Tiger Pro + Growatt MIN5000TL-X).

    • +8

      Most of us are about as emotional about electricity as we are about the sewerage system. I would not pay more, even if someone offered to gold plate my sewer pipes.

    • And there's plenty of electricity shrills over on Whirlpool who bang on how it's not beneficial, it's not going to provide payback within the warranty period. Like somehow the battery is going to be useless after the 10yr warranty.

      Say if you're in Qld and on a smart meter you have a peak hour (3-9pm) tax. A battery helps smooth that out.
      If you're working from home, you have energy certainty.

      • +7

        If you're working from home, you have energy certainty.

        I already do, and for the 10 mins every few years that I might not, I have a laptop battery and a phone. Or I just have a well deserved break. This is not a selling point in our privileged society.

        • +2

          That's you, living in the cbd/city. Some of us don't.

          privileged

          I'm sure you are :-)

        • Wow.

          Ive had 2 full day outages the past 6 months due to line works.

          Everyone is different.

      • there's plenty of electricity shrills over on Whirlpool who bang on how it's not beneficial

        I think you mean shills? And from what I've seen, there's quite a few people on WP who back up their claims with figures, unlike you…

        I have keep a spreadsheet of my daily use, and it's not cost effective for me at $14k

    • +2

      I agree. I installed a battery last year and Solar the year prior. I don’t have to worry about electricity costs anymore when running the airco all day in summer and the heater most of the day in winter.
      I didn’t opt in for a VPP given I installed Solar and a battery to maximise the benefits for me, not as an investment.

      Still great to see I break even in terms of battery investment after 7-8y. Solar was about 4 years payback period at the time, and electricity prices already risen heaps since so actual payback should be even quicker.

      • +1

        I don’t have to worry about electricity costs anymore when running the airco all day in summer and the heater most of the day in winter.

        I'd argue you get 90% of that benefit with just solar alone. If your solar can't handle running your AC during the day, then it's not going to be very good at giving your battery capacity to either.

        • +4

          It's the first 3 - 4 hours after the sun sets is where the batteries start to shine.

      • What kind of size system do you have?

        in winter there's hardly enough to run the heater let alone charge a battery?
        I have 9kw and i'm not able to run the ac heating much

        • +1

          I have a solar system with 9.3kw solar panels. I did upspec my inverter to an 8.25 Kw one, it came recommended with a lower spec’ed one initially.
          No issues running airco for heating and charging my Tesla battery (I’m in NSW), unless it’s an overcast/rainy day. Last week on a full sunny day in winter I had 29 kW solar generation, on a mixed weather day 19.2 kW for reference.

    • -1

      Because electricity companies give you nothing now for putting energy back into the grid. They also jack the prices up of electricity to make solar a sheer cost rather than being self sufficient and having returns.

      Labor in 2007 have solar panels away for $600 and people made thousands off electricity companies.

      Now the suckers in this thread will be paying off a battery for the next 18 years! Yes… 18 years.
      Don't believe those calculators people give when selling you solar panels. It's fabricated.
      Solar wall 3 is meant to be good but resellers will jack the price.. I heard prices of $20,000

      Instead of giving $12,000 to an electricity company you're simply giving $30,000 to a solar company. Whilst the energy company still sends you $300 bills a quarter.

    • Comes down to cost per use. If I use my battery backup four times in ten years, that's a might my expensive backup to have for 10-20 minutes each time. I'll make do without thanks.

    • just provides benefit, convenience and redundancy…

      I have one. It provides none of these and it costs money. Unless you are a hobbiest that has in interest in such things, then I wouldn't recommend it at these prices.

    • +1

      The value placed on being able to sniff your own farts is missing from all of these payback calculators!

      Seriously though, being carbon neutral at least from an energy perspective, is worth it alone. Electrification combined with batteries and solar are the clearest path for consumers to take towards tackling climate change.

    • +1

      this is why we bought a battery - so we can still pump water in a blackout (we don't have mains water)
      we started looking at generators and stumbled upon the AGL VPP program
      .

    • This isnt battery backup. Turning it into a full backup system costs extra.

  • +3

    Computer says no….

  • +35

    It's a 13.5kWh system.

    Based on current origin energy rate of approx 29cent /kWh with no VPP

    Assuming you are able to charge it up fully during the day and offset draw @ night. Max saving per day is 13.5 x 0.29 = $3.915 per day
    Annual offset = $1429, close to 10 years payback. Given the most ideal scenario with no battery degradation

    Not worth it, at least not yet.

    Also VPP sounds like a load of crap, giving distributor control of your battery for their benefit. Sure they might pay you a high rate for discharge, but unless you are constantly generating, you will also be paying the network rate to charge it up when PV is not exporting.

    • +2

      Thanks, you talked me out of it.

    • +3

      We have VPP and they have only discharged our battery 12kwh in 3 years. It's very infrequent.

    • How many years of a payback will it then be worth it? 8 years? 6 years?

      • +1

        Only need to make a 5 percent return to be worth it

        So 700 a year

        • Read my comment again

        • +2

          5% return on top of any depreciation of equipment, so really need around 15% return per year

    • +2

      Good luck charging it in winter as well. I basically have no export for three months a year when we are using our reverse cycle.

      • Three months? We're closer to six :-)

      • i charge mine every day between 10-3pm with cheap power from the grid

        • +3

          This works, but then the payback period is even longer since you're charging your battery with power that you pay for rather than power that you generate.

          • @coxymla: not really when im charging at 13c, instead of using its at 44c

      • Maximum i have exported was 70kWh in 1 day.. But right now in winter i am lucky to get 10kWh…

    • +2

      People who own them are 10-18 years from paying them off. Unless you put about 46 solar panels on your home you're going to wind up with a bill from the electricity company.

      How long would a newly built house last these days? It would be dilapidated by even 10 years.. you simply won't pay it off by the time you'd want to move.

      • How long would a newly built house last these days?

        2-3 generations before it gets demolished for a new build again

    • +3

      Also you haven't accounted for FiT. Let say you got crappiest FiT of 5 cents/kWh, your real saving is only 24 cents/kWh because instead of selling that kWh for 5 cents you are using it at 29 cents. So your annual offset is only $1,182.60.

    • +2

      Just sharing for those who don't know, but the Tesla VPP only uses max 50 charge cycles per year, which is nearly nothing. Also an added 5 year warranty on top of 10 years if being part of the Tesla VPP instead of Origin.

      50 Discharge Cycles
      Powerwall will be limited to a maximum 50 discharge cycles per year. An event can range from a very small amount (less than 1kWh), up to the full capacity, excluding back-up reserve.
      Excludes the Ausgrid Distribution Network.

      https://www.tesla.com/en_au/tep

    • You get $240 a year for being part of the program as well. But the tesla powerwall is definitely not worth it. It needs to be around 6-7k to be acceptable.

    • Some retailers give you full control and benefit of your battery. Sell when FiT is high and recharge your battery when FiT is low.

  • +6

    I would stay away from these big energy providers selling batteries, sure they are giving discount on battery but they get to control when it gets discharged. If it get's discharged before next morning then you will be pulling from grid.

    Also, their daily supply charge would be a lot more than others.

    • Fair point, but if you buy the battery and don't sign up to the plan, its still a fairly good deal based on current energy prices.

      • Very true, but this is where people get trapped as buying a battery is costly and customers would sign up to this offer to get that 1500$ off discount and higher FiT.
        But we still lose if you do the math.

  • 14c FIT is only applicable to Solar Boost Plus plans.

    Is this unlimited? I think most of them offer this rate for the first 15KWh feed per day, and after that it is only 7 cents.

  • +2

    There is a guy making a killing off his solar battery with Amber.

    Charging during cheap rates and feeding in during peak events. Clearing like $400 or more a month as i recall - no electricity bill as well.

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