Just noticed a price drop on all models. According to this article, all models are down by $3400.
I mainly posted this deal to ignite another Tesla flame war, although feel free to buy a high yield investment product with it if you wish :D
Tesla Model 3 base prices: RWD $60,900, Long Range $73,900, Performance $86,900
Order fee: $400
Delivery fee: $1,000
State-based on-road cost & stamp duty: variable
State-based EV incentives: variable
Referee gets $350 off Model Y & 3 purchase.
Referrer gets $175 credit toward Supercharging, software upgrades, merchandise, service payments or a new vehicle. Limit of 10 referral benefits per calendar year.
So why did you buy a car?
To get me places, the same reason as everyone else. Why do you own a car?
Battery degradation for a sample of users between 5-10 years is around 10-20% over that period. I'd say it's pretty good.
Not in my experience. 5 years my PHEV dropped to under 80%. After replacement, at the moment nearing another 5 years at 77% SoH.
Most EVs now only warrant 70% within 8 to 10 years. This is an almost useless warranty unless faulty battery to start with.
Mitsi used to warrant no less than 80% within 5 years and they got burned. Now 70% within 10 yrs.
A battery retailer told me any battery below 70 to 75% are considered end of life.
@burningrage: PHEV is very different to a pure EV, particularly a Tesla. The battery system technology in a Tesla is at least five years ahead of the competition. Mitsubishi, Nissan and Toyota have a poor history with not managing their batteries well. Also consider how small the batteries are in most of their vehicles. Small batteries mean they degrade faster.
Of course a battery retailer would tell you that. They are in the business of selling batteries.
There are independent reports on the life of the batteries in a Tesla, and they a way better than what you are suggesting. Many of the Tesla's being sold today will have batteries that last 500,000km with better than 70% capacity.
@whats up skip: With all due respect, I think we would need to hear a lot more from >5 Tesla drivers who can attest their SoH before we can accept "independent" reports which in the end in my view, were more or less jumping into the trend bandwagon. Positives are pushed through while the negatives are often glossed over.
The enhancement in battery technology from observation has been mostly in the form factor. That is, mobile phone batteries getting smaller, batteries can be shaped into blades like BYD, etc. However, the fact remains that:
They degrade. A battery retailer told me once it hits 75% or under, it is considered end of life.
No EV dares to warrant or provide degradation protection. Even Tesla only provides 70% over 8 years. https://www.tesla.com/en_au/support/vehicle-warranty. This if I recalled, used to be 80%. Why the deteoriation? If Tesla is confident with its battery, why 70% over 8 years.
People may scoff at the degradation argument but having owned an EV albeit an PHEV for nearly 10 years and done a lot of field tests/test drives, not many people asked about battery degradation. One even looked at me and said, "You would be the first one who asked that question". And people wonder why range anxiety exists.
This is before knowing the fact that:
1. Range drops ranging about 10-20% when AC is on
2. Range drops when driving in winter (although I am yet to see whether heat pump heaters will make a huge difference).
3. Regen works far less effective if vehicle driven on highway and/or rainy days
But yes, we do need to hear more anecdotal experiences from Tesla owners particularly >5 years owners to tell us if things have really changed.
Battery degradation for a sample of users between 5-10 years is around 10-20% over that period. I'd say it's pretty good.
I'd say it's pretty good too, the problem is that no-one wants to get left holding the baby when it eventually dies, so the resale curve will sharpen downwards considerably.
FWIW, my fear is less about the battery and more about the software. Show me any consumer software device that is re-saleable after 10 years? The liability factor is far greater than anything mechanical.
@1st-Amendment: ^THIS. I would have more faith if Tesla would integrate with Apple Carplay/Android Auto, thus even if the software/pc performance deteriorates you would still be able to link up a new phone and get an alright experience.
@1st-Amendment: Yep, the week to week living people without much money will still favour buying second hand corollas in 20yrs time+. For good reason.
@FXx: Why? In 20 years time no normal person would want to buy an ICE vehicle as they will cost more to purchase, even second hand and cost much more to operate. By 2030 almost nobody will be buying a new ICE vehicle. Just look at the two curves, new ICE vehicle sales are declining while prices are going up. At the same time EVs are coming down in price, while the sales are roughly doubling every year. It doesn't take many doublings for the ICE volumes to disappear.
@whats up skip: Everybody is forgetting the most important thing: right now ev users are first movers and enjoy cheap running costs. What do you think is going to happen when ev becomes more mainstream and every other person is drawing power from the grid to charge their vehicles? Power is not free or cheap no matter in what form it comes electricity or petrol.
You're all dreaming if you think electricity costs of charging your ev is going to remain remotely as cheap as it is now compared to petrol
@bumluffa: You need to read the studies from AEMO and CSIRO. Many EVs will charge using rooftop solar either at home or work, thus they are largely disconnected from the pricing set by external suppliers. As more wind based generation enters the mix in the grid it can be seen from SA and Victoria that there are many opportunities for EVs to charge at very low rates overnight when there is an "excess" of wind generation. Indeed in SA there are frequent cases where wind farms are shut down due to there not been enough demand or transmission capacity. This means that EVs are the ideal match for a grid with high levels of RE as most EVs only need to be charged every few days.
In addition EVs can use smart charging systems so they don't charge during periods of peak demand, thus avoiding the most expensive electricity rates.
You need to read the studies from AEMO and CSIRO.
The experts eh? Are these the same experts that said that our dams will never be full again? Or the experts who said there will be no interest rates rises in the foreseeable future, immediately before raising interest rates 11 times in a row? Or the experts that the Covid lab leak theory was a crazy conspiracy theory before admitting that it was very likely? Or that the Covid vaccine stops the spread before admitting that it doesn't actually?
Anyone who blindly follows 'the experts' after the last few years needs their head read.
Now, let's separately address your claims:
Many EVs will charge using rooftop solar either at home or work, thus they are largely disconnected from the pricing set by external suppliers.
All the people that live in apartments won't have solar, Neither will office buildings. Neither will construction sites, mining, and a whole host of other industry. So how much is 'many' exactly?
As more wind based generation enters the mix in the grid
How much does this cost an who is paying? Wind is notorious crap at output. IIRC the net output capacity is about 30% meaning you need 3x as many plants to produce the same amount of usable kW's. Who's paying for that?
Also it's unreliable. What happens when you get a still night and a million people expect to charge their cars overnight but can't? What is plan B here?
it can be seen from SA and Victoria that there are many opportunities for EVs to charge at very low rates overnight when there is an "excess" of wind generation.
Sure, sometimes. But what about all of the other times?
Indeed in SA there are frequent cases where wind farms are shut down due to there not been enough demand or transmission capacity
Which is a problem because the wind doesn't always blow when you need it. So sometimes you have to shut it down, others you need it and it's not there. This all means extra cost in the system which will be paid for by… ???
This means that EVs are the ideal match for a grid with high levels of RE as most EVs only need to be charged every few days.
Define most? Any professional driver will need to charge each and every day. What happens when the wind stops for one night, do we just pause the entire country and wait for it to come back? Seriously, what is your plan here?
In addition EVs can use smart charging systems so they don't charge during periods of peak demand, thus avoiding the most expensive electricity rates.
The key word being 'can'.
The point here is that EV's do suit SOME use cases, they don't fit all. Same goes for solar and wind. It works SOMETIMES but not all the time. And unfortunately for the Green Left who seem to operate on wishful thinking, the rest of us need stuff to work ALL OF THE TIME.
@1st-Amendment: Sounds like they're talking about a smart grid which charges when there is cheap power.
What happens when the wind stops for one night, do we just pause the entire country and wait for it to come back?
Lol.
Sounds like they're talking about a smart grid which charges when there is cheap power.
Which I already addressed..
Lol
So out of answers then? Thanks for confirming that.
Which I already addressed..
I don't see it.
Even now, there are multiple sources of power on the grid - that's not going away just because of renewables. Wind stopping, or cloud cover will be accounted for with design of the grid.
Suppliers will be diverse and there will be smarter ways to use excess power. There are already systems in place to take advantage of cheap power or other dodgy US systems which let the power companies adjust AC in homes.
If you know something we don't, by all means, let us know. If not, lol is probably the appropriate reaction to such comments.
PS: love your commitment to the Australian constitution, though I forget what the 1st amendment is. Do you remember?
I don't see it.
That doesn't mean it doesn't exist….
Even now, there are multiple sources of power on the grid - that's not going away just because of renewables.
Well it is actually. Hazelwood, Liddel, Eraring, do these words mean anything to you? The governments of both stripes have committed to all sorts of promises in the name of renewable energy. Just because you don't see something, doesn't mean it doesn't exist
Wind stopping, or cloud cover will be accounted for with design of the grid.
How specifically? I'm interested to know because I've asked this question numerous times and no-one ever seems to be able to answer it in any useful detail. Wishful thinking is not a plan. I hope you have something more than that?
If you know something we don't, by all means, let us know
The questions are still up there above, waiting to be answered. Maybe rather than avoid them you could try answering them with something other than, she'll be right mate?
lol is probably the appropriate reaction to such comments.
This says more about you than me….
PS: love your commitment to the Australian constitution
Was this you very lame attempt at a strawman?…https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
Let me know when amateur hour is over…
Which I already addressed..
That doesn't mean it doesn't exist….
Oh, so you were thinking it pretty hard but never got around to writing it.
Well it is actually. Hazelwood, Liddel, Eraring, do these words mean anything to you? The governments of both stripes have committed to all sorts of promises in the name of renewable energy. Just because you don't see something, doesn't mean it doesn't exist
Power stations - old inefficient coal based stations. What's your point? Just say what you're thinking - stop with the games.
How specifically? I'm interested to know because I've asked this question numerous times and no-one ever seems to be able to answer it in any useful detail. Wishful thinking is not a plan. I hope you have something more than that?
A lot of this stuff is here in some form already. I don't know the area particularly well but given your interest, surely you would, so maybe you could enlighten us as to issues.
This says more about you than me….
lol.
The experts eh? Are these the same experts that said that our dams will never be full again? Or the experts who said there will be no interest rates rises in the foreseeable future, immediately before raising interest rates 11 times in a row? Or the experts that the Covid lab leak theory was a crazy conspiracy theory before admitting that it was very likely? Or that the Covid vaccine stops the spread before admitting that it doesn't actually?
On the topic of straw man (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man ), well, straw men in this case - that's a prime example.
Wibble wibble, yet another one runs away…
Don't forget to write what you're thinking instead of just thinking it.
What's your point?
You said "there are multiple sources of power on the grid - that's not going away just because of renewables", when that is factually 100% wrong, which I demonstrated.
Just say what you're thinking
I did. I'll say it again since reading things the first time is clearly not your thing, your claim that nothing is being shutdown because of renewables is 100% factually wrong.
Storage - batteries, pumped hydro, etc.
And the capacity if this is… Detail, where is it?
Let me help you out here since you are clearly struggling with it. The current storage capacity in Australia recently passed 1GWh which is roughly 2 minutes worth. So if you lose just 2 minutes of night time wind under the solar and wind for everything plan, your storage is completely drained with no way to recharge until the next morning. ie the entire country grinds to a halt. And even then you have to hope it's not cloudy the following day… pause while you think about why that is a terrible situation to put yourself in…
And assume you pursue the really expensive storage path, in order to scale up this storage to support the possibility of one sun-less and wind-less day we would need to multiply the current storage capacity by 1000 times what it is now. And you don't think that level of infrastructure will affect energy prices?
Infrastructure upgrades - planned, afaik.
So some sort of undescribed generic 'upgrade' will just solve all of this? At what cost? I hear unicorn farts coming your way…
Smart grid
So smart it creates energy out of thin air! That is really smart! Where is this smart grid so we can see it in action?
I don't know the area particularly well
That is quite obvious. You don't know it, but you are staunchly defending it? This is where you went wrong.
but given your interest, surely you would, so maybe you could enlighten us as to issues.
I already did. Can you read? I did exactly that in my first post that you responded to. Here it is again: wind and solar while useful in the mix will never make a total energy solution due to their intermittent nature. Storage is technically possible but not cost effective at that sort of scale or application, even Elon Musk knows that. And the original argument here is that energy prices for charging EVs will not go up, when they are quite obviously going to go up because the infrastructure required to support intermittent energy sources will cost a LOT more than more reliable sources (eg. hydro, coal, gas, diesel or nuclear etc).
well, straw men in this case - that's a prime example.
Only if you don't know what words mean…
Don't forget to write what you're thinking instead of just thinking it.
You just responded to what I wrote, so quite clearly I wrote it. Don't forget to read what I write before responding. This will make you look less foolish.
. Here it is again: wind and solar while useful in the mix will never make a total energy solution due to their intermittent nature
I don't think anyone has ever mentioned it being the total energy solution. Here's the relevant part of the comment you responded to -
As more wind-based generation enters the mix in the grid it can be seen from SA and Victoria that there are many opportunities for EVs to charge at very low rates overnight when there is an "excess" of wind generation
@alteclan: Yah, seen a few articles on that topic with environmental impact varying depending on what state you're in.
Interesting article, though hard to gauge 100% as it is promotion for Mitsubishi hybrids. It also goes to show the damage the previous government did.
IIRC, the best path of action from an environmental perspective is often to stick with what you have from an environmental perspective.
Here's the relevant part of the comment you responded to -
No it isn't. The text is right there for all to see, so you desperately trying to creatively copy and paste quotes out of context only makes you look like more of a fool.
It looks like we're done here…
@1st-Amendment: Yeah, the comment is right there - https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/13588506/redir
Feel free to highlight the relevant point and explain how you took it to mean a total energy solution with only wind and solar.
@FXx: Tbh in 20 years I doubt many people will still be buying personal cars. Most likely transport will be automated fleets of vehicles you pay a subscription cost to use. Only the rich will actually own cars.
@phatmike128: My ice will still be running fine in that time and at a low cost too due to the simplicity of engineering… These Tesla evs on the other hand…
You meant to reword it, "I would never buy a second-hand electric/hybrid vehicle..because cheaper brand new"
Why did this get downvoted? He’s right, when the car is a few years old, and the battery is depleted from its original capacity and needs to be changed, it can cost 1/3 to 1/4 of the price of the car to do so.
Where is your evidence?
Independent studies show a recent Tesla will outlast an average ICE vehicle.
Independent studies show a recent Tesla will outlast an average ICE vehicle.
They are not independent though.
@jv: This one is. Based on data from Tessie. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEL-Dwc1y3E
Charts at 1:41.
Your information is very outdated. A recent Tesla's battery has a greater chance of outlasting average ICE vehicle engines.
if its a cheap chinese EV then absolutely
but tesla, polestar and perhaps some others are smart in how they manage the battery
you look at the m3's for example and you'll likely get my km's out of the original battery than the life of an ICE car
but cheap chinese EVs you are right, it's the finer details in engineering, battery management and software that preserves the battery, a cheap EV might look like a saving up front but in the long term it is a false economy
Funny you mention that - keen on a nice used Lexus IS300H - stopgap until better charging infrastructure in the regional areas we visit. Had a sneak peak last week at a used Model 3 Long Range - started at $72,000, has had 6 price changes, now $58,000…
hahahahahaha
just buy a post-2012 Lexus IS-F for more or less the same lol. Can't hear Greta Thunberg over the induction noise of the 2UR-GSE.
*Waiting for 2nd handed Model 3's to drop into the 40's eventually…
How much will the replacement batteries cost you?
Another question is will you drive the car long enough that replacement batteries are needed?
Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data. That's 257495kms in normal units.
So what's going to happen when i get to 2.5 million kms huh?
@Tleyx: 2.5 million kilometres is the equivalent of travelling between Sydney and Melbourne every single day for 8 years.
When you eventually get to 2.5 million kilometres, probably 15–20 years from now, the cost of lithium cells will have dropped so far and the availability of aftermarket parts will be so widespread, that the battery replacement will be cheap. Certainly cheaper than the multiple major rebuilds and/or replacements of the engine & transmission which would be required for an equivalent combustion car.
In reality, most cars are scrap before they reach 500,000 kilometres.
@Simon Wright: if i posted the above by simon wright on whirlpool, it would removed for trolling (its always trolling when they dislike you), and binned.
the cost of lithium cells will have dropped so far
Price of Lithium is going up, not down.
@jv: The increase in price is due to the rapid increase in demand. Prices will drop as mining operations expand to cater for the increase in demand. There's still plenty of this stuff in the ground.
@Tleyx: Thats not 2.5 million kms, its more like 250k. Less than 10% degradation at 250k is pretty darn good. Keeping in mind the average distance we drive in a year is 15000 kms, thats like 17 years of driving.
I have 310k km in my RAV4 2004; still runs fine and I have no range anxiety. 257k is nothing.
@Naigrabzo: This guy has done 1.69 million Ks in his model S - https://driveteslacanada.ca/model-s/tesla-owner-hits-1-milli…
Gemmingen has had to replace the rear motor four times. According to a recent interview with The Driven, the first motor last nearly 800,000km (497,000mi), but the last four have not had the same longevity, each lasting 200,000km each (124,000mi).
He is also currently on his third battery pack, a 63.1kWh pack that has about 310km (193mi) of range on a full charge after driving it for about 400,000km (248,000mi).
How much will a new turbo engine or DSG or CVT gearbox cost you as no-one fixes those now?
And those ICE components are far more likely to blow up at 150,000-200,000km than a 8 year warranty Tesla battery.
as no-one fixes those now
Have you ever watched Discovery Turbo? Or left the inner city?
The world is filled to the brim with people that can fix physical objects. Show me anyone anywhere who has as much interest in fixing old software?
not many ICE vehicles spontaneously erupt on fire.
What blow up. I have my 310k kilometrage RAV4 2004 still going fine.
@Grok: Fair call. Don't get me wrong, I love Teslas and what they stand for. But they are not a good value proposition. I would get a model Y if not for terrible suspension. I don't want to pay 72k and feel nauseous driving on typical Australian roads.
@Naigrabzo: A Model Y is a fantastic value proposition compared to the premium entry European cars like BMW, Mercs and Audis, they are being massacred in the USA and Europe by Tesla.
But sure, compared to $40k or $50k ICE SUV you can save a few bucks going in by going legacy but you will pay for it later in running costs, maintenance and poor resale.
The ride on the Y has improved lately, not going for the bigger wheel option helps too. Teslas are engineered to be sporty, not bargey.
The way Tesla is driving down manufacturing costs I would not be surprised if the 3 and Y drop $10k in a year or two and the new smaller car drops in at less than $40k in Oz in two or three years time.
@Grok: I disagree on running costs, maintenance and resale when it comes to my RAV4. All of those are lower especially when you factor in expensive and frequent tyre changes on your Tesla. I just sold my 2004 Toyota Corolla 192k kilometers for $5500. I only got it for 17k! It had no range degradation at all even at almost 20 years. Service was literally less than $300 per year including all tyres.
If the Model Y is around 50k, then it will be become a compelling choice for me. FYI: I would never buy a BMW etc.
One can make excuses but I don't want a super sporty SUV for my family when I am forking out 72k for it.
I paid 46k for my RAV4 2021 and will be ahead by 1000s even at 20 years, with no loss of range. Your tesla will fall to bits by that time or even earlier.
I am guessing those 2nd hand models at $40K probably only have half the battery capacity remaining…
They're warrantied to have 70% battery life after 8 years.
There you go. $46,500 with 100k on the clock.
https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2019-tesla-model-3-…
over 100000km on a 3.5 year car. what an overpriced shitbox.
YMMV
What the cost of battery replacement ?
$2k
Second hand doesn’t really work well with battery powered devices.
Just did an instant offer for friend’s Tesla RWD 2021, it’s 36k, 45% depreciation in two years. Worse than phone or laptop.
Did an instant offer on our Jeep: 13.4K. Sold privately for 20.7k
We'll be selling our 22 in about two years. Ping me then ;)
Ewww, just save and buy new.
Buying a used car is like buying used budgy smuggler imo.
Just save up and then buy it.
I buy new homes too, buying a used house is ewww. Imagine them jizzing all over the house. Coughing, bleeding, pets pee and poo everywhere. Ewwwww
FLAME ON
thanks. grabbed the rest.
sorry guys. you are just too late.
They have added more stock just now.
Can I shed some tears for the poor Tesla Dudes losing more depreciation ?
Just like every other electric car. To be fair it held up its value for a while. About time it dropped
Because ICE cars hold value so much better haha
Losing depreciation, so gaining value then?
as much as i hate musk, it must be the only car company in the world right now dropping prices
well they are able to produce enough cars to meeting demand out of China and the price of lithium has fizzled, it was a small bubble.
im still surprised that toyota hybrids have a 2 year wait… im pretty sure model 3's are actually in stock in australia… so hopefully more price drops incoming.
Yeah those long waiting time for Toyota hybrids is just ridiculous.
You are underestimating Tesla manufacturing. There is a reason why no other company is able to make EV's at scale and at profit.
Porsche isn't doing too badly with their Taycan, having sold over 100,000 of them globally. I'm also pretty sure they are making a profit!
@Stimps: Well Toyota has sold over 2,500,000 cars last three months. Definitely Tesla isn't at the same scale. If someone tries to compare Tesla to Toyota, it's a Lilliput Gulliver comparison.
@npnp: u cant really compare ice to ev… ev cars are significant different, which is why toyota cannot make a toyota ev to scale.
i think tesla is in a much better position than toyota in terms of financial, especially since they make mega profits compared to ice manufacturers. they've got rich on the back of the us tax payer, but so has chinese manufacturers like byd as they get massive incentives from their own governments.
@hippyhippy: You are hugely underestimating the capabilities of Toyota. They built electric cars way before Tesla but they never (still don't) prioritised it. That is not a reflection of their capabilities (they are 100 times more capable than Tesla) rather their attitude towards electrical vehicles. This attitude may or may not work for them financially (only future will decide) but I personally prefer what they did (and I bet lot of others do too, why would there be thousands of orders for hybrid cars.. many times more than Tesla orders for that matter). I don't mind an electric car eventually, preferably a Toyota badged one not Tesla, and preferably when charging speed developed to a level where I don't have to wait for the car to be charged any more than I do to fuel up my petrol car now. I think we are at least few years behind that technology so I'm happy to wait. I don't have any judgement towards who jumped the gun and bought a Tesla without waiting for more reliable options.. But yeah.. each to their own I guess.
@npnp: There will never be an EV that can charge as fast as filling up your ICE with petrol.
There will never be an ICE that you can fuel cheaply from home every single night to a full-tank while you sleep.
It’s a change of practice. How you’re fuelling your ICE now is not how you will be fuelling your EV.
@CuteWittleCorgi: Never say never pal. https://futurism.com/the-byte/electric-car-battery-charges-f…
@wheelieb1n: They dont report EV profits by themselves so who knows. And how does that even compare to Tesla's scale which would be close to 2mn cars this year. And they neither have the tech or the performance or the range of the Tesla unless you buy the absolute top end which is 352k in Australia!
They started about 10 years ahead of everyone else so had first movers advantage but have largely squandered it.
They continue to lose market share and haven't really released anything special in years. I think their build quality has at least improved but for many years it was built very poorly in comparison to any other modern car.
So while they have the scale now unless they do something (and with Elon at the helm it's doubtful) they will just fade into the background eventually.
Fun toy for now but just can't see them lasting longer term given their history.
@DingoBilly: Tell me you know nothing at all without telling me anything. Seriously this is so ridiculous and ignorant that I dont feel like rebutting this at all. I will be wasting my time.
nah, just Australia.
in China, most EVs followed tesla's price drop a couple months back.
The prices were overpriced from the start. Bout time
I’m confused how it’s overpriced when there’s barely any competition yet
@ihfree: I don't watch Skynews. Never have.
I'm just stating facts.