What's Your Thought on The Current Covid-19 Economic Situation?

ThisUniverse on 26/04/2020 - 12:43

With the current news stating that the unemployemnt rate will rise upto 10% in end of June, what do you think when the economy will start to get better again?

The Jokkeeper salary will be terminated on Sep 2020 and that's when the Jobseeker payment will be cut as well.

With all these things happening, the new rental properties are redicing their advertised rent by 10% now and there is a marginal amount of drop in property selling price. When do you think the economy will start to pick up again and the house prices will start to go up?

Financial

Comments

- - - - [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 10:32
        
        @tidie: Why do you think sellers are trans-shipping or fulfilling from Singapore and Taiwan?
        
        tidie on 28/04/2020 - 10:33
        
        @[Deactivated]: Source?
        
        [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 10:35
        
        @tidie: Yeah, it's still Year of the Rat celebrations and hangovers.
        
        Source? China's largest dropshippers. The entire Shenzhen electronic component industry.
        
        tidie on 28/04/2020 - 10:42
        
        @[Deactivated]: What that's supposed to mean? It was a sincere question.
        You know the all those businesses largely depend on DEMAND also?
        
        [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 10:46
        
        @tidie: No, you edited your answer from "They are not". Correct?
        
        tidie on 28/04/2020 - 10:46
        
        @[Deactivated]: Wrong
        
        [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 10:49
        
        @tidie: You have terrific CCP potential!
        
        tidie on 28/04/2020 - 10:50
        
        @[Deactivated]: Hahaha just because I didn't admit something I didn't do?
        Love it.
        
        [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 10:52
        
        +1
        
        @tidie: You just revised it by 50% twice. Much like China's official covid death toll.
        
        tidie on 28/04/2020 - 10:53
        
        @[Deactivated]: Doesn't make what you said true.
        And why would I say 'they are not' anyways, it's basic economic.
        
        [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 11:00
        
        +1
        
        @tidie: 'Basic economic'? I think your disguise is slipping, or is it just nationalistic pride internet whitewashing duty?
        
        Say something critical of China. I can say Peter Dutton is a potato headed cretin for getting covid and potentially super spreading. No consequence. Scomo was a fool for wanting to go to the NRL instead of locking down and Australia's good covid numbers are good fortune rather than good design.
        
        Say something critical of China's response.
        
        tidie on 28/04/2020 - 11:08
        
        @[Deactivated]: Blah blah blah, check with the mod for my edit history, maybe that will shut you up?
        You are delusional.
        
        michaelTito on 28/04/2020 - 11:40
        
        +1
        
        @tidie: I still have family in China too. What you're doing is understandable. I don't wan them go missing too.
        
        petry on 01/05/2020 - 18:19
        
        @[Deactivated]: yeah china's responsible for my australian post letters from east to west oz taking over 14 days to arrive.
        
        auspost has nothing whatsoever to do with over doubling delivery times lately… its all china's fault because the media says so, and every other paid liar.
Lawrencep93 on 27/04/2020 - 09:01

+18

The bubble has been popped, the Government was just doing enough to kick this down the road, now Corona is a nice excuse hence the huge overreaction so they don't have to take the blame for economic miss management on a bipartisan level since 2008.

With the rental market dropping 10% or more (Likely more as airbnb was the only way to generate revenue on these bubble property prices) then I am afraid the price of a property will drop more as people realise they are overvalued and seek something with better yields that is safer like Government bonds (Lot's of them are being issued with the record spending) The carrying costs of property alone between land tax, council rates insurance and body corporates give a negative return in many cases, so why would you carry something at a loss if it is not going up quickly in price anymore.

The Aus econ is based on house prices and China exports, there is too much risk in the market here, we don't have a complex economy considering we export all basic items like minerals, wood and food, then buy the materials back processed and manufactured at a much higher price from China.

Honestly, there will be a lot of pain to come, the damage is done. In many cases job Keeper is causing more distraction in the hospitality industry which needs to be cut back as there will be less demand for it, money should have gone into re-skilling stood down employees, study for the jobseeker and allow businesses in dire straights to fold, the carrying costs would have been less and we can get back closer to the demand and supply equilibrium when we re-open as there will be an over supply of cafes and other businesses making it super hard for any to make a profit
- Ghost47 on 27/04/2020 - 12:00
  
  +1
  
  Yep, our economy has been bunk for a while. Coronavirus will just compound our issues. We've had it far too good for too many years and our complacency will cause issues for the next few decades.
- Blue Cat on 27/04/2020 - 20:01
  
  +4
  
  now Corona is a nice excuse hence the huge overreaction so they don't have to take the blame for economic miss management on a bipartisan level since 2008.
  
  Shush, you are not allowed to speak the truth!
  Prepare to be jailed for racism, hurting feelings and causing civil unrest!
- gromit on 28/04/2020 - 09:55
  
  +1
  
  now Corona is a nice excuse hence the huge overreaction so they don't have to take the blame for economic miss management on a bipartisan level since 2008.
  
  I think the public themselves have a fair chunk of the blame here. Government has become a popularity game, any government going against popular opinion is raked across the coals or backstabbed by their own party desperate to keep their jobs. It is nearly impossible to find politicians with the necessary backbone to fix the economic situation as those people are now unelectable under the current popularity contest elections, instead we get garbage like Rudd/Abbott/Gillard et al.
  
  "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." Churchill's quote has never been more true.
- postform on 28/04/2020 - 11:46
  
  -2
  
  As much as this is classified as a conspiracy… it just makes sense…
  
  Governments f*** us… they found a way to "prop" up the economy without investing in anything and making people borrow money (which means… you are borrowing value from the future to put into stuff today).
  
  Why? It keeps rich people happy, it also generates a f**K ton of tax - land tax, tax from support industries, tax from construction, tax from all the extra spending from the positive wealth effect, and tax from stamp duty for state governments)
  
  Now its gonna bite us in the rear, and only rich people will get richer from this. SO if you have more than 3 million in cash.. it is probably the best time in the next few years.
  
  Hate to say it… definitely something fishy… especially the way world governments handled it. It just almost feels like they all had a discussion and said… "This is a perfect situation to save our asses from the next big recession. We can blame COVID-19 and Chinese people" — You know every western country had so many warning shots… to prepare for this outbreak… I mean we knew about this for 1 and a half months before the western world started to get uncontrollable amounts of cases… Literally 1 month … !!!
  - john71 on 29/04/2020 - 10:52
    
    Never ascribe to malice that which is caused by incompetence.
    
    Politicians are incompetent, no grand conspiracy needed.
    - petry on 29/04/2020 - 18:34
      
      cept the pollies all over the world just gave billions and trillions away and you expect everyone to believe they got nothing out of it because they are just dumb?
      
      pollies are self serving.
Brendoo on 27/04/2020 - 10:40

+2

I expect it will start to very slowly pick up in 2021 and start to get back towards pre-covid figures later in 2022 or 23, with very slow growth in the few years following.

There are hundreds of billions of dollars that need to be recovered. This is not going to happen quickly. This is much worse than the GFC in 2008 and look how long that took to recover.

I can be pretty sure the company I work for will be laying off big numbers of staff (hundreds for sure) the second the Govt removes the current employee protection mechanisms. They will have no choice, they need to recover the losses due to covid. I expect most companies will be in the same boat, especially medium to large ones. It will be a bloodbath of staff layoffs in approx 6 months time.
[Deactivated] on 27/04/2020 - 13:18

This virus was needed, but not in the form where it kills people ( with the ccp trying extremely hard to hide to virus and destroy,and lastly hack bio security hotspots to hinder the progress, on a final note of buying up the entire medical essential reserve before the pandemic started, is definitely a war crime) because things like this are usually good and bad, it gives the government a license to re-evaluate the term privacy act, and see the possibility for facial recognition, hub tracking and lastly immigration tightening, more cyber attacks, unruly terrorism those are the bad things.

On a positive note what it can bring these rare bubble explosions, cheaper house prices, re-evaluation of the welfare system, and determining what works and what doesn't and how higher allowence's can help(with out the need for politics to debate the existence of intitlement) it Free's up the job market for those elderly holding up jobs those who cannot get, and allows those to reflect on what's most important at home when unable to work.

It allows the government to take risks, it helps small business stay afloat because the government must asses market risks by alloting a allowence to employees (some reluctant to work the full hours because everyone is receiving the same amount even rookies, managers ect so why bother working they say.)
- ozhunter on 27/04/2020 - 13:33
  
  -1
  
  It makes the country go broke, lol
  - [Deactivated] on 27/04/2020 - 13:47
    
    Not on a global level.
    
    Unless you mean this: https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuelas-inflation-rates-h…
    
    While I cannot account for what Venezuela is now, but milk and foods there cost more then petrol as ironic as it seems as the population is Probably 32 million by now, either way the population is still larger.
    - petry on 27/04/2020 - 14:27
      
      +1
      
      the yanks did their thing there, and are going to do their thing here now. it won't be pretty ..
  - monkeyfood on 27/04/2020 - 13:51
    
    makes it return to being efficient
    - petry on 27/04/2020 - 14:28
      
      like all the other countries the yanks have regime changed then lol
      - [Deactivated] on 27/04/2020 - 14:46
        
        @petry: You mean:
        
        https://youtu.be/PZ_yvztyMxw
        
        They are the new yanks, see why.
        
        petry on 27/04/2020 - 15:03
        
        @[Deactivated]: you listen to these nutters …?
        
        'A wave of corporate media reports on Chinese organ harvesting rely without acknowledgement on front groups connected to the far-right Falun Gong cult, whose followers believe “Trump was sent by heaven to destroy the Communist Party'
        
        and 'The Epoch Times, which uses the slogan “Truth and Tradition,” has marketed itself as just another conservative, pro-Trump media outlet.
        
        But NBC News published a major exposé in August revealing it to be the media arm of the opposition cult Falun Gong. The report details the bizarre workings of the Falun Gong organization, showing how the Epoch Times is carving a place for itself in American right-wing media.
        
        NBC News found that the Falun Gong website spent more than $1.5 million on roughly 11,000 pro-Trump advertisements on Facebook in just six months'
        
        epoch times is distributed by woolys/Coles here for free - yankee doodle dandy…
        
        Cletus vandamme on 29/04/2020 - 23:22
        
        @petry: Epoch Times is a horrendously biased "news" channel. Yes China is super corrupt and hiding information and also trying to silence it's citizens it's been known for years. But the way the epoch Times and all those China bashing countries call it the CCP virus is so childish and unprofessional.
        
        petry on 30/04/2020 - 17:55
        
        @Cletus vandamme: super corrupt compared to whom?
        
        a country that abandons its citizens at the behest of another country?
        
        a country that prosecutes whistle blowers in secret courts?
        
        a country that spies on another at treaty talks?
        
        that's oz.
        
        now about innocent little America…
[Deactivated] on 27/04/2020 - 14:09

+5

Personally I look at this time as an opportunity even though most wouldn't people wouldn't agree.
During the GFC alot of people lost money, but it was also an opportunity to buy if you had the savings.For me it was a time to buy my first property, at a reasonable price.
I would think this will provide some individuals the opportunity to buy, if they had prepped/saved beforehand rather than those who have squandered their money on smashed avocado :)
- sheepzpal on 27/04/2020 - 14:20
  
  I totally agree with this and lucky enough to be already in just before this shit started.
- Spectatie on 27/04/2020 - 14:21
  
  Good point. I'm thinking about Aus gold shares. Seen some amazeballs gold price predictions about 1-2 years out. Safe haven.
  - [Deactivated] on 27/04/2020 - 15:47
    
    +1
    
    Yeah shares do look like an opportunity at the moment, lets see how many times the dead cat bounces.
  - od810 on 27/04/2020 - 23:13
    
    +1
    
    My advise is to buy the physical gold fund i.e. ASX:GOLD or ASX:PMGOLD, there are too many variables for gold miners: natural disasters and regulations affect production, cost of drilling is high, cost of production increases because of accidents etc. I invested in both gold miner and physical gold fund. The gold fund yield 40% since i bought, the miner is in the red even though gold price in aud term is all time high
- petry on 27/04/2020 - 14:30
  
  but its 2 late to get in on Funerals - the yanks already bought out the industry.
- mini2 on 27/04/2020 - 15:20
  
  Then again GFC didn't have Jobkeeper/seeker and the government telling banks to give people a 6 months mortgage break so the dynamics aren't exactly the same. There's opportunities but there are new challengers like pre-approvals means jack shit as banks can still revoke their approval even right at the eve of settlement - I didn't think that happened during the GFC. Give it till end of September and the picture will be a bit clearer.
[Deactivated] on 27/04/2020 - 14:26

+1

Unfortunately we are only human, with groundhog day repeating over and over again throughout history. This time will be no different, as much as we might think it is today. Greed will always win out..even against a COVID19.
- petry on 27/04/2020 - 15:05
  
  greed designed it , greed released it, and boy will it pay off!
verio on 27/04/2020 - 20:09

+6

I am a bit scared about people saying that they are fine with the restrictions and that they should be kept way longer. Just because you are doing financially well, it does not mean that others are too.

The government is spending billions to keep the economy alive while the restrictions are in place. Those billions are borrowed and they will affect everybody. You will see it in decreased public expenditure, worse education, higher taxes and so on.

The restrictions are meant to flatten the curve so the health system can cope with the number infections. This is why countries like Germany, Italy and Czech Republic are now easing restrictions as the number of new cases goes down.

We will be doing the same soon, at least so I hope. Should there be a second wave, the restrictions will be brought back. This is all about finding the right balance between saving the economy and keeping the healthcare system working.
jeeby on 27/04/2020 - 23:47

Might be too early to say but the government is already thinking about lifting restrictions soon. In two weeks time, students are already expected to return to school one day with the expectation that they will return the full five days by end of term (end of june). They have also stated that teachers do not need to adhere to the social distancing rule - all of which is based on the fact that Australians have been flattening the curve effectively with only 2 new confirmed cases recently. Other states have also been lifting restrictions so I think it would only be a matter of time.
Cluster on 28/04/2020 - 02:21

+1

This crisis has cost our economy hundreds of billions of dollars in lost economic activity and borrowed money that future generations will have to bear. I support the restrictions and understand why they were implemented even though my workplace has forced me to go on paid leave to help support the business. We can't squander the gains made in limiting infections by rapidly opening up the economy and risking a spike in infections.

The reopening will be slow and take months to achieve. I think the last part of the economy to reopen will be foreign tourism. The risk is simply too great that someone will come from, or transit through, a COVID affected country and bring the disease back here again. People can travel freely through most of Europe with no evidence where they were in their passports. Do you trust all travelers to be honest about where they've been? Many events through to October have been canceled across Europe. They're not taking it lightly and neither should we.

I love to travel internationally but I assume I won't or even can't go anywhere this year.
this is us on 28/04/2020 - 02:34

+1

I think that's enough and coronavirus should leave the planet immediately… And please take all the dumb people…

I'm bored and missing social interaction, the gym, cinema, restaurants, trips, etc. (sigh)
morebunnings on 28/04/2020 - 08:08

+1

I think you're going to see the stock market slowly climb until September (when Job Keeper/Seeker run out), and then see another dip bringing us back to slightly above March levels.

When Job Keeper runs out, a lot of staff are going to get fired for real as their jobs are actually gone but employers are keeping them on because the scheme doesn't cost them anything for now. I don't think this harsh reality is priced into current markets.

The gov ending the extra $550 Job Seeker on top of this will depress consumer spending more, and increase defaults on mortgages/bills.

If the gov extends Job Keeper & Seeker payments I think we will still see a dip as the market corrects for this reality that its not business as usual yet.

Until an effective treatment or vaccine is found, the economy wont recover.
[Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 08:25

What? Jobseeker is being completely removed?
- morebunnings on 28/04/2020 - 08:45
  
  Not removed, but the extra $550/fortnight is a temporary coronsavirus thing:
  
  https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/news/more-f…
  
  From the article:
  
  You don’t need to do anything. We’ll pay you automatically from 27 April 2020. We’ll continue to pay you the supplement each fortnight if you’re eligible for up to 6 months.
  
  So after 6 months, it drops down to normal job seeker rates. If you are single that means you go from $1,113/fortnight to $563/fortnight. A lot of people wont be able to keep up with their bills at the new lower rate, so we will see a dip in consumer spending.
meumax on 28/04/2020 - 08:54

+1

Here's what I think. In Australia we'll ease up restrictions starting in May and probably most restrictions ended by the end of the year. The virus remains under control here because we acted early and there's basically no Covid in the wild that is undetected.

Economy still remains weak because we will remain closed off to the rest of the world and the US and Europe will still be weak. When Job Keeper ends, those exposed industries will feel the full force of unemployment.

House prices will fall only when if and when the temporary stimulus measures of wage subsidies and mortgage holidays come to an end triggering the forced sales required to cause a price collapse. So check back 6 months.

In United States and Europe they will also ease up restrictions in the next few months under intense political pressure. However because they did not act early and there is a lot of undetected community transmission, this will lead to second waves.

Health systems will be in danger of being overloaded or actually become overloaded if not acted on fast. Then the political pressure will swing again to lock down.

Eventually 18 months to few years later vaccine arrives and allows whole world to go back to normal.
postform on 28/04/2020 - 11:16

+3

You guys do know that our economy will never recover until the world also recovered. Its the symptom of globalization.

But.. for us, it gets more unfortunate. As we are a service-based country with no supporting industry that is viable to sustain our economy at current levels, other than mining (Which is as you guessed it… Dependent on global demand). (AND I GUESS.. Education — which we told them to f**k off doubt they'll come back to this country anytime soon.. and.. tourism.. which yeah good luck..)

Funny enough our only other "industry" that the government was using to prop up was.. you guessed it… leveraging and increasing the housing industry.. i.e. mortgages and property prices that went up and cause people to borrow more money and buy shit.

Now that works if it's controlled.. but as you guessed it again.. it wasn't.. and guess what! When everyone leverages themselves to an average to about 600-800K in debt, and how much money you have left to spend on other things? F*** ALL. How much money do you think they have in savings? (F**K all)

So.. Even if magically the world economy recovered tomorrow. We're screwed for a while. You can never run away from the laws of economics.

But you know what.. our central bank is properly going to induce negative interests soon… — What does that mean? — .. Banks will charge you for holding money because they want to "encourage" (FORCE) you to borrow money and leverage and spend it all on the economy so we can continue the bubble that makes people feel happy that their net "PAPER" wealth is going up. That in a nutshell is our government :)
- [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 11:24
  
  The RBA has said they will not do that. There isn't much need when they are quantitative easing anyway. It has a similar effect.
  - postform on 28/04/2020 - 11:32
    
    Ok… what are they going to do then??
    
    Print more money? Let inflation go up? Oh wait they are doing this… its called MMT. Japan did MMT… they went into negative growth for the next 20 years.
    
    I can give you a few things they said they won't do in the last 5 years that they did anyways.
    
    The RBA is cut from the same cloth as the government who has made this artificial growth in house prices. (Because if house prices we're actually fair value, then it wouldn't go down)
    - [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 11:39
      
      Yeah, they will print and dilute. Already that is propping up stock markets as people are fearful of holding currency while the printing presses are flying. Australia has a massive problem with pensioners and criminals holding cash, so negative rates would just result in an even bigger underground cash economy.
      - duchy on 28/04/2020 - 11:44
        
        @[Deactivated]: Quantitative easing will spike up inflation. And inflation will make keeping cash a rather expensive way to lose money.
    - duchy on 28/04/2020 - 11:42
      
      Your last sentence doesn’t make sense. The prices of goods and services can go up or down. It’s the market that determines the fair value.
      - postform on 28/04/2020 - 11:58
        
        +3
        
        @duchy: Yes.. the market… if it wasn't artificial, to begin with. Let me explain.
        
        Governments can create artificial pricing tariffs or artificial environments that do not behave like normal markets.
        
        Prices are not posted of every sale and so information is not instant — not efficient (Well it is by law but most real estate agents only post up the prices of BIG SALES straight away but the smaller sales they either do put them in at the limit of 60 days later or don't even put them up because who can police this)
        
        Negative Gearing and huge tax benefits (This is a big thing — If you lived in your property for a year you get no tax on gains) If this was gone trust me… the value of the property would align with the actual value. Why.. imagine if you could buy shares on the market. And any loss you made you could deduct the loss on your income tax. Let's say by holding the share of a company that's worth 500k (100k is your money) / 400k is borrowed and this FY you lost.. 20k for servicing that loan and you get to deduct the loss on your personal tax. But the share price is roaring up because everyone else is buying, as it makes sense tax-wise and the market is going up because everyone is buying. But the company itself… hasn't grown. Now you see what I mean by artificial.
        
        Governments can artificially increase the demand and limit supply. How? Increase demand by letting more people into this country and limit supply by restricting zoning from a state level.
        
        Governments provide free stamp duty to "encourage" people to leverage into the market. (Increasing demand)
        
        Government housing schemes to further encourage people to again leverage into the market. (Increasing demand)
        
        There you go. It's not a free market. And this is what happened in the US. As you can see. Housing markets are one of the most… lagging industries because the Real Estate industry is very inefficient. Inefficiency is generally bad for consumers, but generally really good for industries that benefit from this (including the government).
        
        tomfool on 28/04/2020 - 12:39
        
        @postform: Item 2 - you do realise that you can do this, negative gearing is not just for property investment. Anyone can borrow money to buy shares and claim the interest on that as a deduction on their personal income.
        
        postform on 28/04/2020 - 12:57
        
        @tomfool: Ok I stand correct. Thanks! I guess then the interest difference between the two is.. 6% for margin loans vs 2-4% for home loans.
        Well I learn a new thing.. every day :)
duchy on 28/04/2020 - 11:53

My crystal ball says:
House prices will stay flat for the next six months.
Economy will remain weak even when restrictions are lifted.
QE will trigger inflation of AUD.
RBA will keep cash rate down but will try to avoid the Japanese cautionary tale.
ASX will oscilate up and down, based on the news. Eventually it will recover as it always does.
Government will introduce new taxes (Corona levy?) to tax middle and high income residents.
Tourism and education sector will not fully rebound back at least until late 2021 but then will be fine.
Virgin Australia will scrape debt and become smaller domestic company with better cashflow. They will keep just the best lines that actually produce revenue. Tiger will be sold or dissolved.
- [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 11:58
  
  Vic government is already signalling increased land taxes as the lowest hanging fruit. People who pay it have money and don't swing elections, so will get thumped.
  
  Just thinking outloud, maybe this will be the time Australia accelerates it's move to a cashless economy to flush out the billions of dollars being kept under mattresses to qualify for the pension and PBS. Those dollars are probably the cheapest money the government can get access to. It can be done gradually by reducing Josh Frydenberg's $10,000 cap.
  - duchy on 28/04/2020 - 12:30
    
    I think you are spot on. Some low hanging fruit taxes that can be introduced:
    - Land tax (following Canberra example they can also ditch stamp duty and increase the land tax even more)
    - Inheritance tax (not popular as it affects a lot of voters)
    - Lottery winnings tax
    
    Additionally:
    - Super tax increase from 15% to 20% (not popular as it affects everyone)
    - GST increase to 15%
    - the usual (scrap negative gearing, scrap franking credit cash refunds) - both very unpopular as they affect a big number of voters.
    
    There will be some sort of tax impact for sure. Question is what it will be.
    
    I agree that land tax is very likely. Properties are not liquid enough to reorganise your assets to avoid it.
    
    Any form of land tax will increase rent.
    - duluxe2000 on 28/04/2020 - 12:40
      
      How do they grandfather purchases which already paid stamp duties though?
      - duchy on 28/04/2020 - 23:11
        
        +1
        
        @duluxe2000: ACT government introduced 20-year program to abolish stamp duty completely. In 2012, the government began to reform the tax system for a property in the territory. In 2032 you will pay your land tax and no stamp duty in ACT. Something similar would have to be implemented.
    - postform on 28/04/2020 - 13:03
      
      Essentially… All those taxes (except for land tax) just eat into future growth. Its a fine-line between fair tax and taxing so hard that our growth is affected. (In their credit — it's also hard to model these things)
    - [Deactivated] on 28/04/2020 - 17:21
      
      Any form of land tax will increase rent.
      
      Unless they extend the moratorium.
morebunnings on 28/04/2020 - 13:03

+1
Flight Center posted some numbers internally to staff:

They expect travel to pick up to 30% of pre-covid bookings in December

They expect to be running at a loss until 2022

They have enough cash to keep running for 18 months

Looks like they have a pretty solid long term plan to pull through.
FlatulentFrank on 28/04/2020 - 18:07

Since when is rent decreased? How can I apply for that!

in all seriousness there is too many variables at play with the world bank and retail Banks. globalisation has been dramatically affected and we still trying to sort out the nuances of international trade and travel. My big gamble is intangibles like gold and possibly cryptocurrency (BTC)

There's been a thousand bandaids applied to a sinking ship. Maybe the true light of our economic standing may be apparent in 4 months. There's a lot of water to go under the bridge. Be cautious
Cirrus123 on 28/04/2020 - 23:45

The economy will begin to recover once people push back against the government and initiate personal responsibility towards their safety instead of a centralised solution.

The backlash will begin once the antibody tests become more well known and it is revealed that COVID is less fatal than the flu.
syousef on 28/04/2020 - 23:50

+5

I should have known better than to look at this thread. Proof that our schools haven't been so effective at in person teaching.

If we avoid a crisis "we over-reacted". You see what's happening in other countries if you bother to look.

I hope I'm wrong but I suspect we're going to ease too soon and see it all come crashing down.
ozbjunkie on 29/04/2020 - 00:01

Just regarding QE causing inflation: I've heard arguments that inflation must follow QE and I've heard that a carefully balanced amount of QE will not lead to inflation. My issue is basically I have a bunch of cash, not enough for a house, and I don't really want to risk it on a U shaped recovery in the stock markets (which I understand may simply stay low for a long time).

Any advice how not to become poorer while I continue to save over 50% of my income?
- duchy on 29/04/2020 - 11:45
  
  My issue is basically I have a bunch of cash
  
  That's actually a nice problem to have…
  
  The inflation target range is currently set to 2 - 3% in Australia. The inflation rate was 1.5% (on average) in 2019. So my understanding is that we do want QE to work. RBA also wants business' and households to invest and not to leave spare cash in a bank account. That's why the cash rate is so low - to stimulate spending and investments.
  
  My layman understanding is that the surplus money must devalue current holdings as well if they are put into circulation.
  
  What is the alternative? If banks remain reluctant to lend and/or potential borrowers (businesses and households) are unwilling to borrow then QE will not work.
  - ozbjunkie on 29/04/2020 - 16:10
    
    +1
    
    Yep what you said sounds reasonable, and familiar.
    
    Maybe I'm a moron. Or maybe I'm a genius. But when the interest rate on savings accounts is low, that's "them" trying to force me into investments which are in danger of crashing.
    
    Of course this leads me to keep money in the bank when interest is high. And money in the bank when interest is low. Which I realise is not a very sophisticated "wealth accumulation strategy".
    
    I am risk averse. I know it pays not to be. Until there's a crash etc.
    
    If only someone could tell me the best thing to do with my money… (Insert joke about 90% on coke and hookers, and then just waste the rest).
tomcat83 on 29/04/2020 - 09:38

+7

We are in one of the most privileged positions in the world with this virus and still people bitch and moan. Personally I'm thankful that the restrictions have saved lives in Australia and bought time for treatments to be investigated. We actually have a decent financial safety net in Australia for those that lose their jobs during this time, not perfect, but not horrible either. No ones lives are the same at the moment and no one wants restrictions to last longer than they need too but FFS have some gratitude for the medical professionals all around the world battling this; and some respect for those who have already died from this.
- ozbjunkie on 29/04/2020 - 16:17
  
  +2
  
  Yep, well said.
  
  I'm self employed and will be hit with a massive tax bill this year, work has been busier than it was before the crisis.
  
  In jest I bitch and moan that other people I know are making 80% wages for 0% work. And I'm busting my butt.
  
  However, I get to live in a country where my fellow Australians are relatively safe, with the social support network that seems humane and in accord with my view of how a society should support people in crisis. Worth paying for. Wouldn't have it any other way.
- RocketSwitch on 30/04/2020 - 11:45
  
  +1
  
  I know right? So ungrateful!
MuddyClear on 29/04/2020 - 09:50

There will be a vaccine for COVID-19. The lessons learnt will fast track the development of other vaccines for:
- Herpes
- HIV
- and many others
It takes a pandemic to get things done a lot FASTER!

What are your thoughts?
- Oofy Doofy on 29/04/2020 - 13:56
  
  Herpes infections themselves are numerous, but the shingles and varicella vaccine basically take care of it (mouth and genital) as a side benefit.
  
  I used to get oral herpes outbreaks a hell of a lot throughout the years. After lots of homework I found people were having success with varicella and/or the shingles vaccine. I had chicken pox as a child, so I got the shingles vaccine instead. I haven't had a sore on or around my mouth for years now. YEMV
  
  Also HIV isn't considered a reason to not allow someone to migrate to Australia, plenty of people challenge declined applications related to HIV with lawyers and win.
  
  I just felt like making comment about these few things.
rt1111 on 29/04/2020 - 10:02

U
RooBun on 29/04/2020 - 13:42

So first thing first, I have to declare I am an Australian Chinese, living in Aussie for more than 20 years, (try) being an Aussie, my kids will call themselves Aussie anyway, and not gonna lie, being a Chinese is becoming more difficult each day in Australia nowadays.

And as I have been gathering the information from both side (Chinese network…40m living in every corner on this little blue ball, with or without wall), and just want to share some info from the other side, not trying to be negative or pro-China but just to be full honest I will carry some narrative of my own. The current political play leading by the US and following by the Aussie politicians including some news channels (especially Skynews & Dailymail) are quite disgusting, even Europeans are not taking the bait, not sure what those politicians are thinking, you don't have to be pro-China but rather think about what can make Aussie has a better future, what can such decades long Anti-China nonsense hatred campaign can or will benefit the ordinary Aussie people in the future huh? Even funnier that seems all the voice, concerns, frustration or reactions from the Chinese community are being silent, actually nothing really new today, guess no one cares anyway.

The virus so far:
So China has been through the hard time, however they have found out many cases are leading to very different understanding of this virus. From the international studies, to make it easy, the virus has few different types now, A,B,C,so far?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.h…

so type A is the original type, which has been found from the China bats/Pangolins, however strangely, it is not the type that spread in Wuhan, China has the type B which seems mostly targeting elders, female has more chance to get infected.but less deadly and so far seems not affecting the Children.

USA has type A, it seems being more contiguous, able to infect young adults, not so much different on the the female and male ratio, rarely has infected children case.

Euro has type C, it is a killer, more deadly, able to infect the children too.

But something is really strange here, the Type C is also found in HK, SK and Singapore, I can understand Singapore got type C but SK and HK? Also Hk found animal infected case. So it seems Type C is the most dangerous type, and Australia border need to more careful about this type.

Also, it seems the virus can rapidly mutated to adapted the local environment.

About the bats story
The virus is not only found on bats but also live in the pangolins, the Chinese wet/wild market don't sell bats, Chinese never has such appetite too, it is very easy to find out where those ..news or pictures came from, but well, lies repeating thousand times could make it the truth. BUT yes, pangolin was selling in Chinese wild market since 60s, since 90s mostly imported from East Asian nations and mostly selling in Southern provinces like Guangdong (SARS anyone?), it has became illegal for trading or eating pangolins since…long time ago,before 2000? But you know, always some people will risk it for profit.
https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/ch/11878-P…

"Doctor tried to smuggle 26kg of Pangolins scales into China has been sentenced for 4 years jail time", it is a war far from end, as long as there is demand…
http://news.cctv.com/2019/12/19/ARTIM6tjI0UdZqYrBJIGlvTV1912…

The Harbin case so far:
Back to the virus, there is a new case worth to be concerned, the China Harbin case, so long story short, an oversea student returned home while carrying Type C, yes from Euro, then the local CDC gave him a 14days regular quarantine, 4 x PCR test, the PCR tests are all negative, but luckily the also gave him 2x antibody test later to re-check and found it is positive, that was 28 days later, so no syndrome, carrying for more than 28days, his own body has developed the immunity however the virus remain in him and as contiguous, from the news I think he already infected 78 people. However, after being infected, many cases shows no syndromes at all but yet still tested positive (so the virus want to be a part of human genome or what? WTH?), Or maybe meaning the virus has less contiguous power since the environment changed? The temperature? Harbin in winter could reach minus 40C. or the typeC is not so powerful in Asia region? Just saying we know so little of this virus even for now.
Harbin is in pre-lockdown, maybe will be another pandemic city with a new type developing, lets really hope it won't, and yeah I am quite worry about India too. More infection = more chance to mutate.

The China traditional medecine:
I am not sure if I should really share this here, it is about the Chinese traditional medicine, but believe if you want, not if you don't. If you don't want anything from this witchcraft stuff, skip this part please no hard feeling.

Ok, so the Harbin CDC said the traditional Chinese medicine are helping in dealing with the virus, similar summarized info from the Guangdong province, funny that Harbin is the most Northern city and Guangdong is the most southern province…so at that time, they have no cure or anything, the west medicine could stop the fever and inflammation really quick but for a very short time, then when its back, the patient will get worse. So the Guangdong doctors are despaired then decided to try the Chinese traditional medicine (one thing you need to understand here, many Chinese, even the medical staffs, are non believers of the traditional Chinese meds or even an anti-Chinese Trad. meds extremist, yea we have so many of those groups fighting each other 24/7, China is very conflicting and complicated inside even sharing so many commons, dog-eating is another example, oh you won't have any clue the pet-cult is always planning to kill the meat-cult). So about this Chinese traditional medicine "I do believe it helps in a way to stop or slow the inflammation of your organs then give enough time to your immune system to fight off the virus, and once you survived you will developed the immunity, that is your only chance…" told by a doctor in Guangdong, one of my friend, they are the first to forced to use the traditional meds, and yes he belongs to the non-believer too but just did it by order "when you are desperate to save people, even the witchcraft sounds reasoning…" He didn't share the formula of the meds to me, because he said for different patient they have used different formula/ingredients, case by case (sigh that is why those Trad. meds will never be known or used by others), however there are few on the market too, I am not a med seller/agent but I will post the link here anyway, translate it or simply google the name of the medicine list there. the most popular is the second one. But do your own research first!

http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-03/18/c_1125729859.ht…
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ecam/2014/637969/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lianhua-qingwen-listed-novel-…

Just keep this in mind, it is for stopping or slow the virus on mild case, it is NOT the cure, you will still need to see the doctor.

Also, maybe spent sometime to read about the testing kits problem, They have developed 2 types, the PCR and the Antibody, but both of them are not 100% accurate, not even 80% I think, from the Chinese cases study, so god knows how many mutated type are out there hiding right now.

Singapore second wave:
And the Singapore seems worrying about the second out break, so IMO, Australia should be slow down and be really vigilant, as Chinese netizens saying: This **** virus must be knowing the art of war way better than we do!

https://www.dailyexaminer.com.au/news/singapores-second-wave…

There are so much more to be shared, but don't think I have time to type it all here XD

What I dislike the current political trend:
There are just so many information out there, but we rarely see it got reckoned or shared or even mentioned in the English channels, this is a virus, it will not give a single F**K for your political narrative, ideology, skin colour or whatever, and I am very sure the so hyping political blaming game and accusing the first victim for everything and make the Chinese as the sinister will not help you to save life, in any way. Human civilization, sometimes is just so pathetic.

Some thoughts about the words from the Chinese ambassador and concerns about the Aussie economy:
Also I have gave a read to the original words from the Chinese ambassador, I personally don't think he has said anything wrong or tried to threat in anyway, at all! And by understanding his tone, he was merely trying to tell the Aussie government (very politely), if you keep being so hostile, the Chinese won't come, they will be afraid to come, and it will harm us both. So why so eager to paint his words as an economy threat (WTF)? Even the ambassador not saying this out loud, this is an already going on thinking for most Chinese! "China will stop…"? NO! more like "Chinese will stop…" gosh he was merely telling Australian political heads what is like right now, you think that 1.4b of Chinese is some kind of hive mind creatures or what? Where those non-sense hatred comes from? Seriously! I am not even a CCP fans, but this is just way too over! Just cant stand this anti-China hatred campaign trend is going so crazy each day even we are facing a common enemy. And we know Australia is lacking of industries, we need export as we need to import too, and the Chinese students, immigrants and those investors could be a very good stimulation or even solution to the incoming recession. All those lies and hatred, Yeah sure, by following the states we can have a better future, like what? American is going to buy from Aussie or share its profits or maybe move its industries or jobs into Australia?

Just, since this nonsense hatred trend has being going on for such a long time, and there are so many twisted stories going all around, I really don't see any hope that the Aussie gov could drop that attitude and going back to balance between the US and China, sorry but I really don't see there is any hope for Australian economy recovery in any near future.
But the HKese may pout into Australia to invest in properties, since we all know what happened there, but the benefit will be too small to be noticed. Few will be benefited but it is just too small for the whole Aus economy.

I think this virus will change the world, for worse, much worse, before it can get any better. And it won't be ended soon, so we all will have to prepare for a long winter.
- nikey2k27 on 29/04/2020 - 15:14
  
  +2
  
  As Aussie i just want say hugs Chinese people are lovely piz me off people treat them like shit. still not got why people stop eat at chinese place thank you for infromation. well i am mad at CCP for lies. i don't blame people just gov.
  - RooBun on 29/04/2020 - 16:57
    
    -2
    
    Mate, I really not sure how I should reply you with honest but not sounding like a CCP fantard or 50cents…
    You know Chinese are all being pushed to the opposite side right now by such preset narrative.
    
    All I can tell you is, hold your hatred, keep claim and carry on, after this pandemic has been settled, plan a trip to China, to Wuhan, talk to the locals, pay a visit to the ordinary Chinese people, avoid the FLG (they are rather powerful here), just visit locals and talk to them. Or maybe take some time to learn some Chinese, then go find their forums or social sites and give a read, you could join the conversation if you want, there are hundreds out there (both good and bad), I am pretty sure you will find lots of information, background, logics, all kinds of context that you probably never heard of and may give you a new angle to see things as refreshing, comprehensive and in depth, then you can make your own judgement by yourself. At least you will have more solid reasons to hate the CCP, but not blindly.
    
    On one hand you got a foolish bad , on the other hand you got an even worse evil, why we have to pick a side.
nikey2k27 on 29/04/2020 - 15:00

I want over and done with lost my job and 2020 is total right off year.
Dsquall on 29/04/2020 - 16:21

+3

I think a lot of the government's successes are still very early and probably does not reflect how we will progress going forwards. The economy will most likely be crippled going forwards and as many people have said, generations of Australians will pay for it. The ultimate impact on human life and QALY is yet to be seen and probably won't be seen for months to years.

One of the scariest things to come out of this whole affair is our willingness to adopt xenophobia and reject all that we have achieved through globalisation. A lot of individuals and politicians are citing the need to preserve manufacturing pathways that are critical to the national interest as justification for this. However, people forget that there are a lot of things that we import that are not critical and the manufacture of these things are not lucrative and do not offer good job prospects. We currently are positioned well as one of the leading services providers to the pacific (largely financial and education) and I do not understand why we want to give up that position to become a "manufacturing powerhouse", by in large manufacturing powerhouses generate profits by abusing those of the lowest socio-economic class. Yes, there maybe caveats to this in countries such as Germany but they have spent decades of R&D to transition into that position, we haven't and there's no guarantee we will succeed if we try to do that.

The government needs to take a step back and take the non-partisan approach to global politics that Australia is so good at. Yes an inquiry is needed but an inquiry won't stop the pandemic, it won't get the CCP to pay for damages, all it will do is buy for a certain orange-monster a get-out-of-jail card so everything can be blamed on the CCP and everything he has done to date can be excused. I for one, am not willing to sacrifice the economic futures of Australians for that.
- petry on 29/04/2020 - 18:48
  
  +2
  
  you're in a minority, and the number in that minority is shrinking because of the yank controlled Australian media, which gives the australian public less factual information than the yank press, which is US government controlled.
  
  Australia is so finished by the deliberate dumbing of its population by the media - it cannot survive the fake news emanating from every outlet. Its now worse than England - they were dumb enough to buy brexit and they got 60,000 dead already as a result - we just exited our biggest trading partner to sign up with America as well - that would be austrainwreckit - thanks scummo and your America first cronies.
  
  Its not a coincidence. Yank super rich have already made billions out of covid.
  
  Anyone buying the accompanying joke about becoming more self sufficient needs to factor in reducing wages by over 50%, to achieve that manufacturing base. That's what tomorrow holds for you all
alienurbanite on 30/04/2020 - 03:54

+5

What I don't understand is why are the Americans not getting more bad press for the Coronavirus outbreak here.

1) Most of our cases have come off American owned cruise ships (who conveniently fly convenience flags so that they don't have to pay taxes here).

2) Clearly the Americans effed this thing up - Trump didn't take it seriously and it blew up in his face. Many of these carriers then came to Australia and elsewhere. There's a reason they have the worst outbreak in the world and still have very low per capita testing numbers.

I'm not taking away blame from China…. but to say that the CCP should be blamed for this global pandemic without pointing also to the Americans is very misleading. China controlled their outbreak. Everybody else should have got the message when they saw on TV they shut down cities with the population of practically all of Australia.

Furthermore, how can you accuse China of a secret coverup and not also look at Trumps open coverup. He just says things that aren't true until people forget he was lying. It's unreal!

** Disclaimer - I'm not Chinese, nor American, nor Australian for that matter…. Just a ex-pat living in Australia for many years.
- tomfool on 30/04/2020 - 11:38
  
  China lied about the outbreak at the start, going so far as to send the Dr's that raised concerns to prison, then continued to lie into January, saying that transmission human to human was not happening, they probably still lying for all we know. They control their media so their people dont know the truth. Sure America is a prime example on how not to tackle this but its a long stretch trying to blame them.
  - alienurbanite on 30/04/2020 - 11:58
    
    This is where I somewhat disagree. We don't know any of this…
    
    Whether they actively lied or were simply incompetent at understanding the magnitude of this thing is entirely a guessing game. We watch our news each day and assume what they say is true, but in the last 3 years since Trump came into power, I've basically given up in believing the media. It is so clouded w the Networks presenting what they want you to see. Until there is evidence, I'm still waiting on the sidelines of the China "lies". I'm not biting on Trump's blame game.
    
    Many countries have demonstrated they are incompetent in handling this disease. The only country I can see having actively lie (and is still doing so if you watch Trump's press conferences) is America
    
    ** Disclaimer - I don't work for the WHO but have worked for the WHO in the past for about 3 years during the SARS outbreak. What's been put through in the media has almost no truth in terms of the WHO I knew.
    - tomfool on 30/04/2020 - 16:11
      
      on the one hand you have Trump, who talks in a different narrative to most sane people, but you have the American media and many citizens actively berating him. On the other hand you have China who declare nothing to see here, as they actively shut down any citizens who might dare to discuss anything outside of the scripted narrative and where media is controlled by the government.
      
      I think its pretty much knowledge that China actively downplayed the severity of the virus, I recall reading about it in Dec, it took them till Feb to act. The WHO played the soft game with China and berated nations like Australia that took action early by shutting their borders to China.
      
      Unfortunately the truth will never be known, self interest will trump the good of the general word population.
      - petry on 30/04/2020 - 17:58
        
        @tomfool: you recall reading fake news and now present it as truth .. the world is flat to many people still because they read it in the past…
        
        the truth will never be known because the media will never print it, and many involved are already dead.
        
        oh and most people don't see trump as just different -they see him as stupid, racist, a liar, a bully , a psycho, and a rapist etc.
        
        clearly you don't agree with any of those…
        
        tomfool on 01/05/2020 - 08:11
        
        @petry: At no time did I proclaim to like Trump, believe Trump or support Trump. I thought my tone was not pro Trump but was being a little more diplomatic then resorting to blatant name calling. And from this you assume that I am some stars and stripes Trump fan.
        
        your tone however appears to be blinders on, this fake news I read appears to be correct. You however sound like Trump with your fake news accusations.
    - trapper on 01/05/2020 - 00:31
      
      Whether they actively lied or were simply incompetent at understanding the magnitude of this thing is entirely a guessing game.
      
      We know for sure China lied.
      
      Taiwan warned the WHO about the virus spreading human to human in Wuhan on December 31, unfortunately WHO ignored them.
      
      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-taiwan…
      
      China did not admit this to the world for another 20 days!
      - petry on 01/05/2020 - 16:11
        
        -2
        
        @trapper: more fake news…
  - petry on 30/04/2020 - 23:57
    
    -1
    
    yank fake news mate - the doctors were just warned about spreading alarmist rumours on social media and then released.
    
    our media is just as controlled, so is America, and England. control is just not as obvious or by government but it is still controlled.
    
    independent journalism has been effectively wiped out by the yanks through google, facebook and other apps.
    
    print or post stuff the yanks don't like your accounts are just suspended or wiped through new content controls. the yanks don't like the truth, and neither do we.
- down-under on 30/04/2020 - 12:55
  
  I think it’s because that the virus is only a trigger, not the whole reason.
RocketSwitch on 30/04/2020 - 11:46

+3

ASX is doing fine, strange how it doesn't reflect what's going on? It's like it's living in another world.
- frewer on 01/05/2020 - 22:07
  
  I heard that the second crash is coming
- freestyle18 on 04/05/2020 - 11:39
  
  watched some consumer based spending stocks soar lol.. where are these people that are gonna spend all that money? maybe they learned some summoning jutsu…
- [Deactivated] on 04/05/2020 - 15:58
  
  People aren't buying shares for a reward tomorrow they are buying for a reward 5-10 years time. The issue presently is buying "safe" stocks. I'm buying those that have been impacted in the short term (not airlines) that had a long steady performance prior the crash.
oO0Dam0Oo on 30/04/2020 - 21:01

+1

At least the baby boom will be good for the future the years to come. All this isolation and boredom will ultimately translate to more Australian tax payers.

Well at least thats what I try to convince my wife. Not that she's convinced.
- petry on 30/04/2020 - 23:58
  
  more troops as well…

What's Your Thought on The Current Covid-19 Economic Situation?

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