Just got this banner when I visited Google Play Movies on my phone.
It is targetted. Algorithm for targetting is unknown, but may or may not source data from Santa's naughty-or-nice list, the ATO, your credit file, and a hash of your passport number.
It looks like different people get different prices, varying from $0.99 to $1.99 (?).
Yep it's targeted. No cheap rental for me. :(