Analysis of OzBargainer Finance Genius Who Made 2022 Stock Market Prediction

The time is March 2022 and Ozbargain is blessed with the presence of a prestigious finance academic, with a bold prediction:

I have a first class honours degree in finance and I was a finance academic at a Sydney University, so all of the people negging me for pointing out that this is risky are financially illiterate. Possibly worse, some of you may be in denial if you are doing this sort of risky stuff in the middle of a pandemic and with global geopolitical risks at an all time high. If you don't want to listen to me - look at the VIX - if you don't understand what the VIX is telling you then you should not be considering a margin loan.

So you are probably ok to do what you like in financial markets - although tell that to the finance professors in charge of the collapsed Long Term Capital Management: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

The 7:30 report story will write itself: "lost my house after finding a cheap margin loan on a website best known for desperados looking to save $10 on a 4 pack of Eneloops'.

2.5 years later, has the geopolitical risk and VIX led to a great crash?

If you had $100 of IVV on this day of this post, you would now have $153.

If you had had $100 and bought a total of $150 of IVV (with margin), your $100 would now be worth $179.50 (minus tax-deductible margin interest).

Well, actually this excludes dividends so you would have even more than these numbers.

https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/11878149/redir

Comments

  • +76

    2.5yr grudge about a random forum commenter?

  • +17

    Touch grass

    • I have hayfever.

  • +4

    @Dmz111

  • +16

    watwatwat dadada phukphukphuk

    You were also quoted as saying…

    I am trained in gorilla warfare

    Lol.

  • +10

    Oh man this is going to be a hot bookmark to come back in 6 months time.

    • +22

      Everyone's a genius in a bull market.

  • what about Nvidia?

    • -1

      IVV includes nvidia.

  • +9

    I put all my money into luxury cars based on this advice…. mostly to impress my clients and boss.

  • +18

    I have zero class honours degree and think both of you need lessons on getting to the point

  • +12

    Everyone's a financial genius with selective hindsight.
    If someone was truly such a financial genius, they wouldnt be posting on ozb and be retired on an island somewhere with those 2.5yrs of financial crystal ball knowledgeable

    • +5

      retired on an island

      Prob rubbing shoulders with other hall of famers like uncle @rektrading

      Some say he made it (especially with this crazy bull run in last few days)

    • +7

      Australia is an island

    • +2

      It's not too late to unpublish this comment

    • +1

      Ok chat gpt, write me a comment that makes will make me sound cool to the fellow kids.

      • The comment is unpublished, but I can look at the username and know that this statement is most likely correct.

        • -3

          oh fr? well chat gpt wasn't used so you both are wrong. type shiiiiitttt

          • +2

            @AccessMax:

            this will make me sound cool to the fellow kids

            • -2

              @brendanm: Oh yeah man I really want to act cool around online forum with people who I will never meet in real life.

  • +8

    Analysis of OzBargainer Finance Genius Who Made 2022 Stock Market Prediction

    You're silly.

    Are you going to do an analysis of the lotto "genius" who picked the numbers on this week's big one?


    There's a distribution of instruments, group of numbers, etc. If you had a million monkeys throw darts at a big enough dart board, would you analyse the pick of the "genius" monkey whose dart hit the outcome that eventuated?

  • +4

    I have a first class honours degree in finance and I was a finance academic at a Sydney University, so all of the people negging me for pointing out that this is risky are financially illiterate.

    Well this means they're least qualified. Credentials mean very little in this space.

  • I don't get it i have a masters in Finance so before I comment I will ask what the purpose of this post is?

    • To prove that it was a good time to invest?
    • To prove that using margin loans is not risky?
    • Just boredom?
    • Other???
      • Banter
    • Other???

      An example of how one shouldn't write a random post on the internet when they're drunk/high (just my guess)

  • +6

    The biggest risk is sitting in cash. It's pretty much guaranteed to lose out over the long term. I wouldn't load up on margin debt though unless you can hang on during the downturns.

  • +2

    This is a magnificent contra-indicator. Do you shine shoes, by any chance?

    • +1

      Not going to lie, wouldn't hurt this academic to have a marketable skill in their quiver

  • +2

    No matter how many degrees you got you never bet against the market. Just look at the annual Vanguard investment report. $10k 20 years ago invested into S&P500 is worth like $200k

    Shorting the market exposes you to unlimited loss potential.

    It is like the property market. By all logical analysis it shouldn't be where it is but all the people without degrees or self control are sending it to the moon then complaining why they can't afford bread and milk LOL

  • +7

    So where was this mentioned $10 off enelopes?

  • If you had bought $100 worth of some imaginary "dog" coin a few years ago, you would now have about $10 million.

    • The first recorded price at which Bitcoin exchanged hands at $0.00099/BTC in late 2009 If you'd bought $100 of bitcoin then it would give you 101010.1 coins worth $13,508,265,521.48 as of this morning @ $133,731AU

      • Yes but how many people did that, or had any notion of how much it would rise?

        • +1

          Not me thats for sure, but the only way I think you'd still have it today would be to have lost the wallet for 15 years because I guess most would have sold it way before if not have sold off some as it went up. The question would be when it went to $1 or $10 or more per coin at some point i guess I would have sold out, but there would be some that had absolute faith in it and HODL. Interesting to think about sometimes but then back to work……

        • +1

          We thought $100 was too much in 2011 or so and it had 10x'd at that point. Seemed risky buying more. Had the opportunity in 2011 to load up some BTC to a USB and walk to an ATM to withdraw cash. So like a credit stick in sci fi movies. But that seemed "poser" lol

      • +2

        None of the original first investors in bitcoin expected it to end up where it has.

      • What is Bitcoin?

        and what are tariffs?

    • At the time, most people thought it was just a meme or outright scam. You would be able to mine easily as well.

      • I tried to buy $100.00 worth when it was $0.12, but couldn't find anywhere I thought was reputable enough to buy it šŸ˜¢

    • +2
      • Ahā€¦ well thatā€™s dull. Thanks though!

  • +3

    This is sad.

  • +2

    OP has a first class honors degree in holding a grudge, good on you.

    So what I bought Bitcoin last year it's now over 80k, does that make me some kind of financial savante who deserves a honorary first class honors degree in finance?

  • +1

    Heck, that was a challenging read.

    OzB ain't what it used to be.

  • +1

    how many other threads have you bookmarked to come back to?

  • What does this post mean?

    • +3

      old mate carries a long grudge. it's basically a "ha I told you so" to a post from 2 years ago

      • Bizarre

  • +4

    Nothing wrong with holding people to account, especially braggarts who lord their qualification over others.

    It's like those economists predicting more crashes than there actually were.

  • +4

    I just want to know…has the initial poster been wiped out?

    Iā€™ll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and Iā€™ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills.
    I am trained in gorilla warfare and Iā€™m the top sniper in the entire US armed forces.
    You think you can get away with saying that to me over the Internet? As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill in over seven hundred ways, and thatā€™s just with my bare hands.
    Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe misinformation off the face of the continent. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little ā€œcleverā€ comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your tongue.
    But you couldnā€™t, you didnā€™t, and now youā€™re paying the price.

  • -7

    LMAO you gotta name the OP - i got a pretty 'good' idea which muppet it is pretending to have some financial qualifications but constently posting straight up leftist trash and if you call him out on it he is so deep on the mods shaft you get banned

    • +1

      An excellent opportunity to accuse someone of both posting leftist trash elsewhere and being in on a conspiracy with the mods.

      Very normal, you're doing great.

      • +1

        Is The Left in the room with us now?

        • I have a pretty good idea where th-

          Wait, not arbitrarily weird enough. Let's try that again.

          I got a pretty 'good' idea where they are

        • The Left has left the building.

  • Where are you getting margin from :(

    • +4

      I often find it on the left side of the page.

  • +1

    After watching the Penrith Panthers lose the GF in 2020, I knew they had the team to dominate for at least 4 years, if you'd put $100 on them in 2021 to win the premiership and compounded over the following three years you'd have over $2000

  • +1

    If you knew anything about making money you wouldnā€™t be on this forum.

    Blind freddy could have invested in US stock markets and made money. Its hardly special insight to use the vix. Its simplistic.

  • Well well, if this is good, you should see my post of FMG 5 something years ago when I first bought for $5 something been accumulate ever since now its $18 with lots of dividend along the way, so is LRV when I got very early before the jump to 50c

    Then there is also HLF which wen busted, along with DXN which lost 99% of its value

    • +2

      you should see my posts spruiking LUNA

      • -1

        I bought a few thousand $ of Walton coin, because it was 'the Chinese coin'. I could've bought BTC lol.

  • +1

    All I know and can tell
    Put your money on something that you understand

    You may feel proud of something that most people donā€™t understand but on the other side you spend that money on stupid things

    Go try planting a tube stock plant worth a dollar and nurture it without any expectation

    You will always be surprised and happy with the fruit

    Same is with investing

    Iā€™m sorry I I just had two pale ales šŸ™‚

    • It's easy to get sucked into that world/the finance world and lose your humanity… + time

  • +8

    I bought a bag of chips for $1.56 in 2022.

    In 2024 the same chips are apparently half price at $2.40.

    Perhaps I should have gone all in on chips?

    • +2

      When the chips are down?

      (I'm a dad, whatdayawant?)

  • +1

    Going against the grain; good on you OP!

  • -3

    this post is fake and gay

  • +2

    How in the sweet heck is this a front page forum topic? Like what did I just even read?

Login or Join to leave a comment