So huge stock market crash today due to US recession fears.
What is everyone thinking?
Stock Market Crash - WYD?
itslittfam on 05/08/2024 - 16:33
Last edited 05/08/2024 - 16:33
Last edited 05/08/2024 - 16:33
Poll Options
- 92Hold and wait for more info
- 26Sell
- 320Buy the Dip
Comments
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- 2
Yeah, nah.
I mean, I don't have any crypto, but if you bought at the time I questioned that when it dropped to $76,000, and it's now around $94,000, you would've had profits of of around 23% (less tax).
Not a bad return in 4 days…
“If”… we could say that about many things in life.
Lol. Yeah, huge. ASX200 down 3.7%
It scares me to think what will happen when there is the next crash if a little dip makes people yell crash.
Been looking happily at Wesfarmer's all-time high of $74.04 the last week.
Lots of stocks in OZ down more than that.
Most of the US big stocks are down 10% in premarket. Its going to be a blood bath today.
The question is how low will they go!
LOL perhaps leave the financial advice to others as Nostradamus you ain't. Both the All Ords & ASX200 up 0.2% in pretty uneventful trading.
Yes, there will be retractions ahead - but this isn't the GFC etc. Keep calm and carry on.
LOL perhaps leave the financial advice to others as Nostradamus you ain't
When I posted that, the ASX closed down after one of the largest drops in a while.
The USA share market was in a 10% premarket down state, and it did open 10% down. But lots of buying, so most stocks recovered, so it wasn't a blood bath like most thought.
Both the All Ords & ASX200 up 0.2% in pretty uneventful trading
LOL Come on…. Sure the all ords are up TODAY by 40, but lets just ignore the massive 484 drop that happened yesterday then shall we?
@try2bhelpful: That I did, but we had been talking about the US market, and their 'Monday' opened down 10%, and closed down 3-5% overall as well, the same as the ASX closed on Monday. So when I said how low will they go, it looks like a dip of about 10%, with a small recovery, leaving most 3-5% down. Not as bad as most thought.
But it's easy to comment after the fact on these things. Bit like claiming the All ords are up 40 points today, while ignoring the 400+ point drop they just had since Friday close ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Either way, the US market was still down on their 'Monday' trade.
@JimmyF: Ahh, it wasn’t clear what market you were talking about. Yes, the US stocks were down but I suspect there will be a rebound there as well. I’ve been in the stock market since the early nineties. It goes up, it goes down. Unless you are trying to make short term gains you learn to look at this as noise. The secret is not having to pull out when the market is down. Bloodbaths are relative and it comes down to recover time.
Probably apocryphal.
“In 1928, John D. Rockefeller was having his shoes shined. The shoe shine boy started giving him stock tips. J.D. decided that if a shoe shine boy was giving stock tips it was time to get out of the market. He did & his fortune continues to be one of the richest in our history.”If something in the market gets incredibly popular, and the financials don’t underpin the hype, then get out of it. The money is usually made by people in there first.
@JimmyF: Biggest drops in a while don't mean much when it's not dropped in a long while - my point remains it was no bloodbath, your prediction was wrong - what looked like happening is neither here nor there.
Might there be a bloodbath eventually - 100% certain, but might be days, months or years away. It's the markets, gotta take the rough with the smooth. If you'd had stuff in the markets during proper crashes you'd have seen the past few days as noting worth writing home about.
my point remains it was no bloodbath, your prediction was wrong - what looked like happening is neither here nor there.
10% drop is a bloodbath to some, as I said, how low will it go and it went down about 5% once the dust settled. So not too bad in the end.
your prediction was wrong
At least I had one. What was yours that you posted BEFORE the market opened?
@JimmyF: That 10% came over many days…….not one.
LOL so your prediction was incorrect, but if others didn't have one they must remain silent on yours? Don't be so sensitive my guy - we all know what Market Futures/pretrade is so it's not like you were plucking wisdom bombs from the unknown even if you 'd gotten it right. :-)
That 10% came over many days…….not one
LOL yes, a 10% drop over 2 days of trading….. So take two days of trade for the claimed recovery to see if it recovers above Fridays open.
so your prediction was incorrect
Meh, the market dropped and closed down. People lost money. As I said, how low will it go? Not that low it seems this time. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
but if others didn't have one they must remain silent on yours
No problem with you saying something, but you came across as a 'told you so' poster. Its pretty easy to claim someone is wrong when you didn't make a prediction in the first place.
we all know what Market Futures/pretrade is so it's not like you were plucking wisdom bombs from the unknown even if you 'd gotten it right. :-)
I based my view on the many markets closed with some of largest drops in a long time on Monday, you know, like Taiwans Index Suffering the Worst Day in 57 Years.
So sure, my prediction which wasn't 100% correct, but what was your prediction again? 🦗
@JimmyF: I didn't get the memo on needing 'have a prediction' to have an opinion. And wasnt that aware predictions needed to be made - as stated the futures kind of give us a good idea of whats happening the next day.
Only novices 'lost money' but if you're going short thats the risk. Long termers who have been through proper corrections & actual crashes know it's just a chance to grab a tad more for your periodic buy. BUT I do feel a big correction is long overdue - with the AI fueled run similar to what happened with the DotCom bubble if you were in the market back then, as I was.
Chance to lose a lot of $$$ or make a lot of $$$ - but fine game to play, I prefer to play boring and long as I can replicate the market but not outperform, which is fine by me. Good luck to those who feel they can, given even the very best active funds in the world struggle to replicate this year on year, with age you know your limits.
I didn't get the memo on needing 'have a prediction' to have an opinion. And wasnt that aware predictions needed to be made - as stated the futures kind of give us a good idea of whats happening the next day.
Ahhh ok, so you're just coming in after the fact being all righteous, acting like a seagull. Carry on then.
@JimmyF: Ah sheez ya got me with that seagull thing. ;-)
To reference Roberto Duran, "No mas…no mas!" ;-)
Market open tomorrow will be a bloodbath
OP said US market, there are other markets out there FYI.
The US was down 2.5% when this was posted. Hardly a crash.
Though I guess if you just leveraged into loss making tech companies it might have hit harder.The point is, literally nothing has changed since last week when the market was up 2%, but people are freaking out.
If you always wait for the market to go down before you sell, and for it to resume consistent upwards moves before you buy, you will miss most of the market growth.Hardly a crash.
Agree 100%
But it is a wonderful distraction indeed!!!
Slow news day imo.
I think it was 2008, when the market was down 40% and then back in the 80's. Current Generation doesn't know what hard times are.
Me: I wish I could buy ETH again pre surge prices
Magic wish granting monkey paw: *closes 1 finger *
Me: wait.. no not like that!
I mined mine!! ;)
Totally should have done this - plug in multiple mining rigs under my desk at work for free power and wifi.
Give a small % tobribe the IT guy to keep him quiet if he asks. LOL
That's why I love my previous foray into crypto. No "crash" smaller than 50% will make me nervous. I have long become indifferent
Japanese market down 10% or something today. This is nothing.
You’re obviously very poorly informed if you think it’s nothing. Look up the Japanese carry trade.
Enjoy
It’s “nothing” in the sense that this is just the start, I mentioned the yen carry trade below before you commented, FYI.
Buy the dip for sure. Just need to create another poll to figure out where the bottom is…
People have a spare stash somewhere, to buy when there's a dip?
I’m selling my dogs and cats to buy the dip
Professional ozbargainers might be able to cash out their Boost SIM cashback profits and credit card churning points to buy the dip.
there was still that option to cash out ozbargain comment upvotes to ozbargain coin then to fiat right…RIGHTTTT?
Buy the dip
me: hey babe just heading down to colesworths - do you need me to get anything
misso: dont forget to buy the dip
me: profuse sweating
Several options:
* You're flush with cash - consider the period as a buying opportunity. Many stocks oversold and overpriced. A few reasonably priced but will see a down-trend in price based on current sentiment, however the intrinsic value will remain. Consider these as reasonable entry points?
* You're can't stomach the downside - book profits and take 50% of your shares as cash. It'll limit your downside, but also limit any potential upside that might occur as a rebound.
* You're strapped and can't handle a loss - Sell everything. It'll lock you into a loss/gain at whatever it's at currently, but you have that cash on hand should this be a contagion that spreads further or there's further selling on Wall St tonight.
* Wait and see - Do nothing. Consider it a reasonable correction on what's been a banger year or so. Nothing more to do than head to the Winchester and let this all blow over.Personally, I'm opting for option 2. Downsized about 50% before it kept bleeding in the afternoon.
Typical thing: Not financial advice. If you want financial advice, pay a financial advisor. I'm but a simple idiot.
Oh, and combine whatever option you select above with an appropriate amount of alcohol, preferably sourced from a previous OzBargain Deal.You sold out of 50% of your holdings on a 4% dip? Wow.
Yes, I'm very conservative. I have a family and a mortgage. You do you.
4% dip today but what was the growth since your buy in?
@soan papdi: Enough that I'm happy to shuffle my profits from the stock market to my offset account for when the fixed rate finishes.
I'm not a genius, but the rise of the market has been pretty (profanity) wild (and built on AI sand) and I'm unconvinced this is the end of the bleeding.Maybe I'm wrong and if you're buying the dip, I salute you.
@astevens: Oh no, I'm conservative too, so much that I don't have the stomach for individual stocks. I just get VGS and sit back.
You seriously shouldn’t be involved in stocks then. If you sold on a 4% dip that means you can’t afford to lose any money at all. And selling 50% of your entire portfolio on a 4% dip says you’re either into micro caps wanting to get rich quick or you have very little invested because you’re cash strapped as it is.
Being “conservative” isn’t a reason to sell 50% of your holdings, just say it like it is, you’ve invested more than you can afford to lose.
Just to follow up on this, the reason I made that comment is that this approach leads to losses.
Say you sold the Japan following ETF HJPN, yesterday when it was down 11%.
Today it is up 8% and you decide this wobble was a nothing burger so you buy it back.
You just paid cgt on any past gains, locked in that 8% loss and paid brokerage.
Or if you don't reinvest in the market, you miss all future growth.
Either way, selling on a down day is worse than selling on an up day. And selling half your investments on a down day will greatly increase the chances of a mistake.If you need a conservative approach, dollar cost in and out of your position without regard to the market noise on the day.
If you need a conservative approach, dollar cost in and out of your position without regard to the market noise on the day.
DCA FTW
All else is noise
z, y gen investors getting a dose of reality.
BuT StoNKs OnLy GO Up.!@$1Kind of saw this coming, currently 90% in HISA as of 2 weeks ago, the highest proportion for me. Something about the worldwide stock markets smells fishy.
Iron ore is also strangely high whilst steel is tanking hard (-25% and still falling for the year).
Only time will tell but i reckon Australia's not going to be on the right end of this one unlike the GFC. Underlying housing debt bomb doesn't help.
Stick to your plan because you would have accounted for market dips.
your plan
My what?
buy, buy, buy…
bye bye
YOLO it all into shorts… and all your spare cash into BTC.
Don't do this
Don’t do
this
The one strategy that has never let me down:
1) Gold
2) HoldI see Ron Swanson has entered the chat…
it was up last week, down this week, itll be up again next week
just relax
HODL To the Moon /s
This may be an unpopular opinion, but here goes.
The mainstream media is ignoring the big issue. Yes US recession fears are concerning, and the Crypto and Nikkei drops have put fear out there. But they aren't actually the biggest concern.
China is the main concern right now. Thier ecconomy has been in trouble for a couple of years. The government has absorbed about as much as it can to keep the market stable, and now it's selling US treasury bonds to keep itself stable. That's what happened in the US today - the culmination of US inflation, debt and sliding GDP, and weakening demand for US Bonds.
If you have positions on the Nikkei it's too late. holding is better than trying to dump at this point. There isn't any reason to expect it to continue to fall at this rate, apart from fear selling. I'd say as the investors who leverage the yen to invest in crypto will all be looking for new loans or be forced to sell thier Crypto, and once that's complete the Yen will drop back some and the Nikkei will recover.
If you have positions in the US, then the relatively small drop today shouldn't be too hard to absorb. The bigger risk is that the US has a decent risk of heading for a recession. They are also in an election year. The incentive for the current President to try and stop a recession happening is very high, as incumbents don't get re-elected if there has been a recession (big generalisation, but there is plenty of evidence for this) Of course, the incumbent is stepping down, but I can't see a situation where a new stimulus bill isn't at least considered, which should slow the fall.
If you are primiarly active in the ASX, then the bump today was a little larger, but our financial position is pretty healthy right now. We should weather this global bump ok.
If you are holding risky positions in any kind of real estate stocks, then I'd be getting out from those ASAP. Real Estate will lead the next market crash.
If you feel like gambling, then currency speculation could be interesting in the next couple of weeks. The increase in interest rates in japan has bit those investors who borrow from Japan to invest in the US or even here. Expect to see some selling taking place for those who have suddenly found themselves in risky positions. Today that saw the Yen climb heavily and the USD to drop against AUD. Further volatilty can be expected this week and next while everyone rearranges the deck chairs. No, I'm not prepared to offer any tips on what to buy.
Footnote: I am personally not a fan of Crypto in any form as anything other than a straight up gamble. Put your money on a horse or blackjack, or buy crypto. All the same imho.
RE: Stimulus bill - what's the actual chance of that getting through though, if it only helps the incumbent?
My understanding is that would need to get through the Senate and while the Dem's hold a technical majority (thanks to VP tie-breaking vote), they need a greater majority to actually bring something like that to a vote and prevent a filibuster?my crystal ball is broken, so I don't know ;)
US Politics is incredibly (profanity) up right now, so predicting if politicians would actually take action to help out thier constituants is not the straight up answer it should be.
Seriously, the republicans are pretty fractured right now, especially since JD Vance. It wouldn't take much for a few to cross the floor. Will that happen? Probably not. But the act of proposing it will steady the market somewhat, even if it doesn't happen. They are also needing to tread a very narrow line as stimulus will impact inflation.
No mention of the unwinding of the Yen carry trade?
Nah china isn't selling US bonds to keep itself stable. It's selling cuz they have seen how the US regime is weaponizing the dollar. But they have overdone it. There's no way back.
Real Estate will lead the next market crash.
Guess the colour of my balls from waiting for this to happen.
Purple or Black? 😅
"I am personally not a fan of Crypto in any form as anything other than a straight up gamble. Put your money on a horse or blackjack, or buy crypto. "
Na, crypto is a much better bet as the house isn't taking a vig. But otherwise you're right.
As for the China story, all those US protectionists and China-phobic national security types here may be about to learn "be careful what you wish for". The US and Chinese economies are far more interdependent than either side is willing to admit - if one crashes the other is very likely to also. We, of course, are dependent on both (directly with the Chinese, indirectly through the financial system with the US).
continue to DCA into the market
BTFD
BTFD == Buy The Fantastic Dip
As that investing oracle Matt Damon says: "Fortune favours the brave".
S&P 500 futures were down more 2.7 per cent, suggesting the selling might set to continue on Wall Street.
Hope my Onetel shares still ok. Haven’t checked them since 2000
you're good dude, completely unaffected by todays market jitters!
That’s good news.
I FOMO’d into Onetel, being young and dumb. Was a bit worried about their business plan considering the paid 17cents wholesale for each call and where selling calls for 15 cents
The free onetel to onetel caused a taxi fleet to replace their radios with onetel mobiles.
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett
Warren Buffet sold out last quarter though…..
Yup - "Be fearful when others are greedy…". It's amazing how he just sold Apple and BoA stocks when stocks keep reaching ATH after ATH just before the dip . He's been selling more than buying the past year or so. It will be interesting to see when he'll have a buying splurge next.
how do you pronounce his last name? buffet like the buffet we go and eat at?
the food one is buh-FAY his one is buh-FET
@michaelTito: probably because ones French and the other Americanised French
also in English there's really not set way of pronouncing something for some words
buy puts
DCA into the dip. They always pull a rabbit out of the hat and save the market.
That's the problem. At some stage they won't or just plain can't.
When? Who knows… with everyday that goes by it gets closer and at the same time the longer it takes the more catastrophic it will be.
They always can and will print money. Staying in cash you're certain to loose over the course of time.
No one remembers the COVID crash in March 2020? Man that was a wild time. The XJO went from ~7100 to ~4500 in a month.
37%!
Does this mean USD will finally drop coz atm our AUD buys a pitiful amount…
guys how can i reverse the bitcoin i bought from 2 weeks ago? i was told to buy the dip now i just want all my money back
Well what I won't do is buy $700k in Intel stock from Granmas inheritance.
Still well up YTD, hell i am still up from. 2 weeks ago . Hopefully a few good buying ops though. Stock market also looks mild compared to crypto collapse
Crypto is just a magnified stock market.
ASX goes down 2%? Crypto can go down 20%. If stock market is up 2%, crypto goes up 20%.
For all the talk of it being its own currency and not part of the system it is just a mirror of the economy but with bigger swings.
Now is the time to find good stocks at a good price. Given how much the market has gone up this year it was due for a correction.
Which blue chip to buy? Valuation is still pretty high.
I like FMG, WBC and BHP
What other blue chip you guys reckon?
If you want to play it safe, BHP and CBA are rock solid stock.
spackbace on 05/08/2024 - 16:35 Comment score below threshold.
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