Do Solar Batteries Make Financial Sense?

I have been contemplating getting a solar battery for a while. We have a 5Kw solar system already.

However, I am not sure if a battery system makes financial sense and I have used the Tesla Powerwall to do some calcs.

Noting, we are a high usage house and on average use 30 Kw, so we can not go off grid and savings will really be whatever the system can store.

If I look at Power wall pricing, they are about $14.5k for a 13.5Kw system and comes with a 10 year warranty. They will more likely jackup the prices so rebates will have negligible effects.

$14k in an offset account will be valued at $20.9k in 10 years (assuming long term home loan interest rate of 4%).

So technically spending $2090 a year to have the system and that is before any maintenance.

The system at best will save us 13.5kw energy (less in winters when the solar doesnt generate enough).. 13.5kw at a peak rate of $0.40 is $5.40 a day and over a year is $1971. If I account for lower winter production from a 5 Kw solar system and usage without a battery + assume no downtime for the battery, I recon it will land at a saving of $1500 approx against a cost of $2090 + maintenance.

What am I missing? or are they really not worth it?

Comments

  • +1

    You're taking into account the time value of money which you're measuring at 4% a year.
    But what about the likelihood of raising electricity prices?

    Overall I'm with you that it's not worth it at this time.

    • Tell me about it, our prices have gone up 16% this year and our fit just dropped from 8c to 3.3c but I did the maths and its still not viable enough to consider getting a home battery.

    • Tell me about it, our prices have gone up 16% this year and our fit just dropped from 8c to 3.3c but I did the maths and its still not viable enough to consider getting a home battery.

    • +1

      Tell me about it, our prices have gone up 16% this year and our fit just dropped from 8c to 3.3c but I did the maths and its still not viable enough to consider getting a home battery.

      • It seems you really want to do the telling ;)

        • Im glad its sunk in for you, Seriously though I didnt post 3 replies. You will probably get 23 of these as well.

  • +1

    Wall batteries don't make sense. Cheers

    • +9

      What about floor batteries?

      -JV, probably

      • +13

        I'm guessing ceiling batteries are over his head

        • +6

          never heard of those, are they worth looking up?

          • +2

            @quick-dry: Definitely look them up. You might find they have quite large overheads on installation.

  • +9

    I recently installed a powerwall. I was being hassled by a local solar company (reputable thankfully). The math didn’t totally stack up, was at least 10yr payback when factoring FIT loss etc. I did get the powerwall for $12k and have it on a green loan at 3% p.a.

    Since then, power prices have increased 20% and FIT reduced by 80%, so the payoff diagram looks better.

    Where I see the value is I have an EV, so am on the OVO EV plan which gives me 8c /kw power at 12-6am and free power between 11-2pm. During winter my house is super hungry (weatherboard house with a lot of single thin pane windows), and can use up to 70kwh a day. Basically I charge battery from 8c power, use it til the sun comes up, fill her up from solar and free midday power, and then use the battery between sundown and midnight. Most days I avoid peak tarrif, with my most expensive day being $5 for 70kwh (ie averaging 7c/kw). This enables us to live more comfortably without having to be concerned about ongoing cost of heating - and for that the payoff seems much less, during winter anyway.

    Oh, and I’m in Sydney, but our area has occasional blackouts - lately they replace a single power pole every couple months and power goes off for the day haha! Blackout coverage is helpful as an added bonus.

    Long story short, not really a financial play, but I like being able to manage my consumption patterns and playing power companies in my favour

    • +2

      Thanks for sharing this. Similar profile house and tempted to execute this plan

      • +1

        yeah same. waiting till rebates in nsw come nov though

    • I have the same plan and in Sydney and considering a battery due to recent rate rise and reduced FIT. So your battery can be scheduled to charge with grid power at 12-6am and 11-2pm and also use excess solar energy to charge automatically?

      How fast can it be charged from grid, 5kw/h? Hopefully battery cost reduces with rebate in Nov.

      Another option for me may be switching to Ampol Energy Powering On (85.8c supply, 28.27c usage, 7c FIT). It may work better in summer.

      • Good info. Thanks.

      • +1

        Hey there, long story short - yes, with a third party app. Ultimately you set up a time of use profile in the Tesla app, but it’s AI doesn’t always work, and misses some charge sometimes… there’s a companion app called NetZero which you set up a couple of triggers and controls it.

        I have:
        grid charge on 1200
        Grid charge off 0600
        Grid charge on 1100
        Grid charge off 1200

        And yeah, she caps at 5kw/h charging, and will soak up excess solar before pulling from grid.

        Also if you have TOU setup correctly the house won’t pull from battery during the cheap power periods, and prioritise pulling from grid at 8c or free. Honestly between Tesla TOU and Netzero Automation, it works flawlessly. Feel free to pm if you ever need help, took a lot of trial and error to work it out haha

        • +1

          Thanks! I don't use as much like you but I want to live comfortably without paying huge bill.

          Apart from battery option, AGL EV plan may be a good alternative to lower the bill (88.12c supply, 8c off-peak, 30.61c peak, 7c FiT, no super off-peak but lower peak rate and higher FIT). Based on my last 12 month usage pattern with new rate applied, AGL comes $270 cheaper. I will switch to AGL straight away if I don't consider battery. With battery, peak-rate becomes less significant and charging schedule will change as well.

    • I am with OVO EV plan as well and I get free power between 11am and 2pm, if you have this, why not charge up your battery between these times and pay zero cost.

  • +1

    It's better to try to increase self-consumption (e.g. charging an EV) or self-sufficiency (moving high loads into the day time).

  • We got a 10kwh Huawei system, little annoyed that after we had it installed that its only had an 8kwh capacity and 2kwh needs to be held in reserve. However we got a rebate from the ACT Government for it and their 10 year interest free loan made it attractive. As well as it allowing us to use an extra 8kw of solar per day, its auto set up to fill up when electricity is cheap at night and feed it into the house in the morning during peak. That has been a benefit.

    • How did you set it to charge at night?

      Recently bought a house that comes with a battery and not sure how I'd go about setting it to operate that way.

      • +1

        Ours hooks into the Nextgen network and they control it for us. See if your system is compatible with Nextgen

  • +1

    The only way I've calculated for it to make sense is to build your own battery packs, or buy a used unit, the ROI on commercial batteries is longer than the batteries are rated to live for.

  • +2

    If you are a high usage home is there anything you can do to reduce that usage? That should always be the first part of your money saving strategy.
    Have you read Tim Forcey's book "My Efficient Electric Home"? It's an easy read with many practical solutions.

    Your system is relatively small. Do you have the roof space to fit more panels? That would be a more cost efficient strategy.

    I'm fitting a battery and heat pump HWS later this year. The payback on both is excessive but it gets me off gas and I plan on selling in a few years and will get that money back selling as an "eco-home" because BS like that is important in my area.

    • Most of the cost comes from a heating.. our bills in summer will auto reduce as we do not need as much cooling in summers and solar system provides more value in summers by producing 4x more for longer part of the day. Everything else we have in the house is already low consumption (all lights are LED, etc.)

      • But you need to question why your heating bills are so high.

        At my house my heating bills are quite low because of good insulation, concrete floors, no draughts, etc

        My partner's place costs triple to heat because of rattling timber windows, a draugh3cm gap under the front door, timber floors and crap insulation in the roof space.

        Have a read of the book and rectify the root cause

        • We live in an old double brick house.. we fully renovated it so the windows have been replaced, flooring redone, etc. The builder confirmed the roof insulation was as good as it should be.

          The doors are all new and sealed too.

          The only thing we haven't done is insulate the double brick walls which is a costly affair. We also live reasonably close to the beach so get the cold sea wind.

          In summer our house remains cooler than most new 7 star houses. We have done real comparison with our friend's new houses. So the insulation is working well in my mind.

        • Im in a house that will soon be 100 years old, funnily though it is as warm as toast all year, around 30-50 years ago they got a new roof, (I have since replaced the roof) but they didnt remove the old roof they just fitted the new roof over the 100 year roof. They also reclad all around straight over the top of the old timber cladding. The place is also fully insulated, its a Art Deco style with original Art Deco fireplace and the cornices, the main room the cornice goes out by 600mm into the ceiling and the centre cornice is art deco as well. The plasterboard is the old Horses hair plasterboard around 20mm thick. I last year got Double glazing, but left the front windows as they are the original leaded windows, So I bought some 8mm thick acrylic sheeting cut to size and use a Magnetic strips (plus and negative) all around and also attached the the acrylic, this has worked out really good. Easy to remove keeps the place cool as well as warm when required.

  • +1
    • +1

      "Aussies are told to search their homes for the “hidden” fire-prone products"
      they are not tiny button cells that can be lost down the back of the couch
      .

  • Yep i cant quite make it work / justify cost of installation and battery but with interest free loan for 4 years and the possible introduction of your supplier tapping your battery in an emergency and paying you for that (est extra $200 a year) then factoring in prices will increase over time it is almost a net benefit now for my set up. That would be for a 10kw battery at a total installation cost of $9900

  • +1

    Every time I look at solar batteries it just doesn't make financial sense. The payback period for me is near 10 years and over 3000 cycles, which also happens to be the very best warranty available with any pack. And my calculations don't include reduced capacity over time.

  • -2

    Interesting how everyone here says they don't make sense yet the government is banking on retail consumers spending billions and billions of dollars on home batteries to make their Solar+Wind fantasy make sense.

    • +2

      To be fair, the Gov is also banking on drastic battery price reductions in the future akin to the price collapse of solar systems over the past 10 years. At half the price they are now, they would be much more feasible.

  • When I put solar in I asked about batteries and I was lucky enough to have an honest sparky who did the math with me. He was happy to put one in but wanted to be clear up front I would never get a return on the investment unless electricity prices went through the roof.

    • +1

      Unfortunately, the electiricity prices have gone through the roof in last year and FITs are now negligible.. at least here in SA, that is the case. I just checked my last month's bill and we averaged $0.44 per Kwh on a Time of use tarriff. About 2 years ago it was more like $0.30 per Kwh, so in 2 years our prices have gone up nearly 50% while FIT reduced from 8c to 3c and that is with AGL. I am going to switch to another provided next month who has 0 FIt but electricity rates are a bit better.

      • If you are on time of use and have solar why is your peak usage so high? For context when I got solar I switched to TOU and for the last 6 years the usage has been consistently 20% peak, 20% shoulder and 60% off peak, so for me the off peak rate is the real one of relevance (still gone up a lot).

        To continue the theme, no I don't think batteries make sense unless you want to move completely off grid. I have a pool so I now use my excess solar for pool heating (in swimming season) rather than getting 5c FIT. Given the FBT breaks on EVs it doesn't seem much more after tax spend to get a cheap EV than a decent sized (but still smaller capacity) home battery.

        • Not sure what your peak timings are but for us it is 6am to 10am and 3pm to 1am.

          We dont have things that can run on a schedule. The day time usage from 10am to 3pm is taken care by solar as the usage is minimal. So we mostly draw from grid during peak times as solar is generally not generating until 10am in winters. And the night offpeak from 1am to 6am is kinda irrelevant as we are in deep sleep at that time haha.

          • @Megatron: Wow that's very different to what I have in Sydney. Peak is 1pm to 8pm weekdays. So really only 4-8pm in winter when there's no solar offset. How do they justify including 10pm to 1am as peak?

            • @knasty: It has always been like that in SA.. it does piss me off a little as I cant go back to the single tarrif plan which are on average cheaper now. I could go on a single tarrif plan at 38c kwh but I was told that once we opt for Time of use, there is no going back.

  • This a great question, and the answers here are accurate. Its not viable unless there is govt subsudies.

    Unless you have a clear need for a stable power supply then the ROI is low. Instead buy a BYD and use the external power output in times of emergency.

    Commercial Wind and PV do not have a good ROI either, but heavy subsidies are provided by our govt .

    • +1

      issue is I don't think any state allows your car to power your house yet and not getting covered by insurance will put people off doing it illegally too

      • South Australia allows bidirectional charging. Others should follow soon.

  • +1

    Do Solar Batteries Make Financial Sense?

    NO.

    Went down the rabbit hole, done the math, re done again. Never have I found any reason to go with batteries at its current going rates (based on VIC). The only reason that would tip me over is if all electrical retailers force ridiculous variable rates such as wholesale prices for electricity and in which I will look into the cheapest possible battery option and be done with it. On top of that the installers also charge a premium price for installation because there are 0% loans or some grants in certains states.


    This is the same with heatpump water heaters… the out of pocket cost for same capacity / featured unit has gone from around $900 to $3600 … ridiculous.

    • You are not wrong with your last sentence. I bought a heatpump hot water system a couple of years back for $999 installed. At least $3.5k now, at least

      • Yeah the quotes i got then and now are like that. I have a solar hot water system with gas boost, so it makes absolutely no sense to spend 3600 for upgrading.

  • +2

    Batteries are about $1,000 / kWh
    On average you get about 65% efficiency over the course of a year (which accounts for times you don't have enough solar to charge the battery in winter for example).

    So every kWh of battery is worth the difference between what you pay for power and the FIT. For the sake of discussion, lets say that is $0.35 / kWh.

    365 days x 1 kWh x $0.35 x 65% efficiency = ~$83 / year.
    ROI = ~12 years.

    If you want battery to deal with poor electricity supply or to go off grid there are other value inputs beyond cost, for most people only looking at the cost it's still no where need worth it.

    If power costs go up and FIT goes down (or starts to charge!) that will impact those estimates. For my thinking, battery costs need to be $300-400 / kWh which would make ROI more like 4 - 5 years.

    • +1

      your estimates need to add opportunity cost. unless you are getting a government subsidy for an interest free loan to install it you need to add an additional 3-5% per annum on the cost of money, that significantly blows out the ROI.

      • 3 to 5%? I wish. I'm paying 6.1% on my mortgage and I'd have to withdraw funds from it to buy the battery pack.

        On a $10k typical battery install I'd be paying ~$610 per year just in interest. That's 1418kWh of power use I would have to offset. At ~5 kWh per day on average, I would spend 283 days out of 365 just recovering money to pay interest. Only 82 days of use per year to start paying down the $10k debt.

        For me batteries make absolutely no sense.

        • that's a choice for you, and definitely not a wise financial one to choose a battery over mortgage offset. generally opportunity cost is calculated on what you could be earning for that money which is a safe calculation at 3-5% (post tax), if you have a mortgage then it becomes even more insane to buy a Battery.

          • @gromit: ASX200 has earned an average of 9.2% over the past 30 years. Stick your money in an index fund and get a long term average in excess of 5% after tax.

            The thing that really hurts the cost calculations of home batteries is the quite frankly outrageous price. Usually over $1000/kWh, depending on type and tax payer help. Cars with 51kWh batteries cost $40k brand new, drive away. That's $785/kWh. Someone is gold plating their battery price and expecting tax payers to foot the bill.

            • @Cluster: that is basically exactly what I said. works out about 5% return post tax. still far worse than offset of your mortgage if you have one.

              Battery prices really need to nearly halve before they are a good bet.

  • No

  • Financial sense? ALMOST, if you are lucky.

    e.g. Power prices going up by another 20%, or, you buy a cheaper battery, and get it installed before the gov. install rebate drives the prices up!

    1) Battery backup of some house circuits is also a tangible benefit. Depending on how reliable your power is, cost of spoiled food can add up.

    2) I bought a 13kWh battery for $8000. AlphaESS Smile5. Australian assembled battery packs.
    A little bigger and heavier than Powerwall, and support probably not as good as Tesla, but warranty similar.

  • Using a VPP might help make it morr cost effective for some: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/battery-storage/vpp-compariso…

    Here's a battery calculator: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/battery-storage/calculator/

  • I keep running the numbers each year in a spreadsheet I put together - although Finn has a calculator on his solarquotes site (somewhere).

    Thus far, the 'payback' period (for me) is just over 10 years, so a pretty close to 'break even' prospect, although realistically, I would expect more than 10 years from the batteries, but then maybe not.

    If I was in a location with frequent blackouts, then I would take the plunge, but the last power outage here was in February, and the one before that was March last year - so using it as a "backup battery" isn't justified either.

    I am also keeping an eye on battery tech - solid state batteries look like they could be the game-changer we need.

    • Do you have any links about the solid state batteries that lists the benefits over Lithium batteries and how they might be priced?

      • +1

        at this time they're still "bleeding edge" and probably won't be generally available for the next few years. there are some 'portable' systems available (mainly US market atm) - there's a video here of a guy who's been watching various battery techs for a while - the video linked starts at 'solid state', but there are several other interesting tech's covered there as well.

        of course, these are all probably going through the 'hype cycle' at the moment, think back to how solar panels were first hyped, then dropped away, then were a bit of a disappointment, but are now a 'mature tech', or how EVs are moving though that cycle as well.

    • I'm hoping sodium batteries take off. A little bigger and heavier than lithium but cheaper, more available resource and presumably less toxic to produce.

  • Govt is happily throwing away tax payers money on these utter useless rebates.

    Basically, anything becomes expensive as soon as government starts putting money in it. These batteries and heat pumps are latest scams.

  • +2

    So many armchair experts on this topic - my real life experience.

    Tesla Powerwall 2, installed 2019, total lifetime discharge 14.5mwh, 97% lifetime charge from solar, 3% charge from grid.

    Grid charge rate percentage will increase as I have recently switched to time of day tarrifs, so now I have changed the charging settings to allow grid charging during offpeak - if the system predicts I will use more power than I have available in the morning peak it will recharge itself in the last 2.5 hours of off peak before 6am (after discharging its "free" solar-charged capacity overnight). This in theory may allow an additional cycle of the battery each day, while wearing itself out faster should add to the gross savings made over time.

    Cost to install was somewhere between $6-$7k after SA Government subsidies on offer at the time. I can't recall exactly, but I think it was $13,500 or something similar less 50% rebate.

    Current peak power price on my elec plan around 45c per kw during peak, so on very simple math not factoring in forgone FITs I think I've had about $6,525 power value for a $7k lump sum payment and the battery is still chugging away and under warranty for another 5 years.

    On balance I think it will be worth while over time, but at full retail I think it would have been impossible to justify financially.

    • Hi Jason101, thanks for the real world experience.. as you have mentioned, it is the full cost which currently sits at around $14k installed and not able to be justified. That $14k in an offset account is currently saving us $850 a year (6.1% Interest rate).

      There is however a cheaper option availabel through AGL for something like $12.5k, but you have to stay enrolled in their VPP program to keep the $1.5k discount. Which to me doesnt make sense either as AGL's electricity rates are at leat 10% higher than the cheapest options available in the market.

    • I am in the same boat as you, bought during the SA government rebate in 2019? (or 2020) Cant remember.

      Got my powerwall 2 for only $4,500 paid over 5 years (also joined the AGL VPP). They take 75 bucks a month till its paid off.

      Currently is at 13.4mwh discharged. 15.6mwh charged via solar. (recently been charging via grid for free during mid day with OvO EV plan + over night at 8c per kwh)

      Probably the best investment so far for myself.

      However i would never pay the current prices for a battery, just not worth it.

      • Much the same here. Paid $4500 including blackout protection. Installed December 2018 after delays re other battery brands no longer offered. AGL VPP. 11.5MWh discharged, 13 4MWh charged (not sure why it wouldn't be the same?). We have 6kW of Trina panels which were around 6 years old when battery was installed
        .

        • yeah im not sure why discharged and charged is the same as well? OH im assuming there might be some loss when charging? (total guess)

  • +1

    last energy professionals show I went to a speaker said batteries were 'not ready for prime time' - and figures I've seen suggested something like $5K for a home solar panel setup could payback in 2-3 years if you used that energy yourself (e.g. our strata always-on garage and stairwell lighting during the day)

    but if you spent $11-15K on batteries the payback became more like 8-15 years - something most business heads would not recommend.

    folks in remote areas paying much more, or for diesel generators, etc. - is a whole different equation.

    • I would add that as well as 'remote' locations and those with generators, areas that have frequent blackouts would probably also benefit from battery storage, if only to keep the lights and fridge going.

    • I'd be happy with a 10-15 year pay back, I'm certainly not looking to move anywhere for at least double that

  • Under some circumstances might make financial sense - some discussion here on better ROI without solar (and peak hour tariff, limited sunlight)
    https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/15471475/redir

  • I'd say no, but the only error I can see in your calculation is not taking inflation or power increases into account.

    If we see 3% inflation solar income would go from $1.5k to $2k/year over 10 years.

    Honestly though power walls are way over priced. Lithium batteries have dropped a lot since the power wall 2 was introduced, yet the power wall has increased in price.

    • elon's gotta make some bucks from somewhere ;)

  • -1

    Poll would be nice - basically, yes.

    Solar and battery is a far better investment than just solar, for example, you may have daily savings from using the battery during peak times, and charge when there isn't enough sun in winter, to avoid it running out in the peak period.

    If you're unable to use the solar power when it's really running, it's essentially wasted, sure, it goes back to the grid but you're getting a fraction of what you're paying, if you get 50% (12c solar to 24c off peak) that's the best case scenario.

  • If and only if you can use the charge solely to yourself and Not feeding to the grid, only then it's worth it

    Also I think current battery technology has not advanced much. And we need proper recycling

    • Or feed to the grid though a VPP when it is $15+/kWh. If only the VPP companies didn't charge $20+/month

  • +1

    Wake me up when ozito home batteries are a thing

  • If you have a 5kW system and high usage, a Powerwall sounds to big. Unless you start trading energy with Amber electric or something.
    Prices have come down a fair bit, should be able to get it around $12.5k. You should also consider a smaller battery and can analyse your production numbers. No point having a 13.5kWh battery if you don't produce enough to charge it. I've used 28Watt to crunch the numbers for me and get me a quick online quote. That's an easy way to get some insights into cost and benefits.

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