Do Solar Batteries Make Financial Sense?

I have been contemplating getting a solar battery for a while. We have a 5Kw solar system already.

However, I am not sure if a battery system makes financial sense and I have used the Tesla Powerwall to do some calcs.

Noting, we are a high usage house and on average use 30 Kw, so we can not go off grid and savings will really be whatever the system can store.

If I look at Power wall pricing, they are about $14.5k for a 13.5Kw system and comes with a 10 year warranty. They will more likely jackup the prices so rebates will have negligible effects.

$14k in an offset account will be valued at $20.9k in 10 years (assuming long term home loan interest rate of 4%).

So technically spending $2090 a year to have the system and that is before any maintenance.

The system at best will save us 13.5kw energy (less in winters when the solar doesnt generate enough).. 13.5kw at a peak rate of $0.40 is $5.40 a day and over a year is $1971. If I account for lower winter production from a 5 Kw solar system and usage without a battery + assume no downtime for the battery, I recon it will land at a saving of $1500 approx against a cost of $2090 + maintenance.

What am I missing? or are they really not worth it?

Comments

  • +17

    You got it - the cost of batteries negate any savings if you are paying a mortgage

    • +7

      And the corollary is if you have no debt, but are sensitive to inflation (like a retired person) they make a reasonable deal.

    • +6

      You'd also do better investing the money in an index fund.

      • +14

        Probably. But I know a few retirees who sleep better at night with negligible power bills and no need to care about the stock market.
        Solar and battery also doesn't impact eligibility for a pension.

        • +8

          Exactly!

          We have a 6.6kV PVA and a Powerwall (bought when the SA Government had some rebates) and the 100% ROI date has well and truly passed.
          We are also part of the AGL VPP and that pays a bit, as well.

          The PVA went in around 12 years ago and the battery in 2017.
          I started a spreadsheet when we had the battery installed, and it makes nice reading…

          WE are age pensioners and that is one bill we never have to pay.

        • Believe me, they're watching their super balance nightly

  • +7

    No you're pretty spot on, unless going completely off-grid batteries still don't make financial sense. Keep in mind too that you are also forgoing the 13.5kWh of FIT too even though that's worth bugger all in most places it does add up over a year. Then it's a case of are you still using 13.5kWh when the sun isn't shinning to fully drain the battery, over this time too you would want to factor in battery degradation as the PW has high degradation,Telsa guarantee at least 70% capacity at 10 years, no chance you get 13.5kWh for 10 years

    • Good points

  • +12

    Do Solar Batteries Make Financial Sense?

    No

    • +4

      Yes, when the government heavily subsidises with tax payers money.
      Without subsidy, NO

      • +1

        Yes, when the government heavily subsidises with tax payers money.

        No, not even then…

        You need to take into account maintenance costs, replacement costs… Do the numbers. It is rarely worth it…

        • +9

          The government uses stick and carrot methods to push its policies.
          Stick is the ever increasing power prices (wanted and conveniently engineered).
          Carrot is more and more subsidies to adopt the new technology.
          All to support a technology that is currently nowhere near economically sustainable, but in line with government's policies and narrative.

          • +5

            @Mad Max:

            Stick is the ever increasing power price

            Government isn't increasing price, the power companies are.

            • +4

              @jv: In QLD the power generators are government owned.
              Regardless the government can affect prices with carbon taxes that power companies have to pay. That gets passed on consumers as higher electricity costs.

              • +3

                @Mad Max:

                In QLD the power generators are government owned.

                That impacts less than 20% of Australians…

                I'm applying the 80/20 rule.

                • +1

                  @jv: Interesting reading:

                  'In Q2 2024, volume weighted average NEM prices ranged from $109 per MWh in Queensland to $189 per MWh in NSW. Compared with Q1 2024, Queensland's price fell $29 per MWh (21 %) while all other regions recorded significant increases - NSW $87 per MWh (up 36%), Victoria $69 per MWh (up 99%), South Australia $65 per MWh (up 78%) and Tasmania $67 per MWh (up 97%)." See link below.
                  The Australian Energy Regulator released the 2nd quarter wholesale energy prices today
                  The increases are out of control, driven by the drop in wind generation as touched on previously.
                  The lies about renewables being cheaper have to stop It is sending both consumers and industry broke.
                  The two price snaps from yesterday showing wholesale energy prices show why.
                  In the middle of the day energy wholesalers pay to sell energy into the grid. This of course is absurd - sellers should be receiving money to deliver a product rather than paying for it. This absurdity is brought about because in order to meet our net zero targets, energy wholesalers have to deliver a certain amount of "renewable" energy into the grid.
                  To do this they have to sell the energy produced by solar in the middle of day at a loss in order to under cut base load energy. (See first picture)
                  In order to recoup these losses the energy wholesaler hen has to sell energy at much higher prices during peak hours to recoup the losses incurred during the middle of the day.
                  Of course solar doesn't work in the early evening so the slack is picked up coal.
                  Rent seeking renewable carpet baggers claim that this scenario proves renewables are cheaper.
                  This is completely misleading. The COST of producing energy from coal doesn't vary during the day or night, It's only the PRICE that changes
                  And this change is not driven by cost but rather a flawed ideology that by somehow importing renewable energy from overseas you can produce energy cheaper than burning our home grown resources,
                  These sort of price increases are being driven by one thing, and one thing only - the installation of wind, solar and batteries

                • @jv: Idiotic. Government totally controls the sector in all states. Vic Energy Upgrades are paid by additional taxes on power companies.

            • @jv: Pushing power generation onto the users and phasing out ICE cars requires large amounts of investment in the grid.

              The power companies and government are working together.

              • +3

                @TightLikeThisx:

                The power companies and government are working together.

                (and the bikies….)

                $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

  • +9

    I continually run the maths. Savings from batteries will only make financial sense (for me) if either, the price of batteries substantially decreases, or the price of electricity (peak times) substantially increases. Of course, YMMV depending on your electricity price and your usage.

    • will only make financial sense (for me) if either

      So, the answer is No

    • -3

      or the price of electricity (peak times) substantially increases

      And that is exactly what is happening, with the price increase used to subsidise all the renewables cost

      • +1

        price needs to go up quite a bit still to get to financial viability.

    • +2

      Wait five years for sodium (Na-ion) batteries. They should be much cheaper than lithium today.

      • +3

        Every 5 years someone has a battery technology just around the corner, surprisingly still the usual lithium options around, nothing different. I heard Tesla is releasing a new roadster soon…

        • +2

          Battery technology has improved dramatically in the past few decades…

          • @CodeExplode: But right now lithium is pretty good. Were at a point like iphone 4 or 5. That is, waiting because the next one will be better doesnt dramatically improve your user experience. Its incremental.

          • @CodeExplode: I'm not saying there haven't been incremental improvements, but something dramatic which bottoms out prices and significantly increases density? I've been hearing about solid state batteries making it to market for a couple of decades, last I saw they still have fire issues.

        • some new form of battery is making a way in
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery
          Yes, it is lithium but slightly different technology.

          • @greyeye: LiFePo4 (LFP) batteries are common now in large vehicles. They're much safer and don't cause fires, but they're not really suitable for bikes or scooters. Even LFP batteries should mostly disappear when sodium batteries become mainstream.

            • @Cheap Gamer: definitely need a better battery (less fire, lasts longer, cheaper)

        • You can buy sodium batteries now. Five years is when they should be smashing lithium for six. Lithium is rare and expensive, but sodium is plentiful and cheap. Sodium batteries could be up to 30% cheaper in five years. Investors are bailing out of lithium mining companies partly because of this trend.

    • The rort is in that our supply and the energy market is variable depending on load.

      Our feed in tariffs are fixed at a peanut per kw.

      Actually I think peanuts are worth more….

  • +8

    My brother, in the industry, says not yet. If youre decision is purely based on financial impacts its not worth it. If you want to stick it to the power companies then its worth it.

    • My brother, in the industry, says not yet.

      We should all listen to our brothers…

      • +3

        Even if they are overweight?

        • +4

          if they are recommending yummy food ;)
          .

        • Or, what if jv is your brother?

    • -6

      If you want to stick it to the power companies then its worth it.

      Are battery companies better ?

      Are you aware of how much CO₂ they produce?

      • +1

        Its not about the CO2 its about no longer being held hostage to power prices.

        • -1

          Its not about the CO2

          😲

          Why then are they shutting down all our power stations that is causing the price rises ???

          • +2

            @jv: Well some things are about the co2. 'Sticking it to the power companies' is about not giving them my hard earned.

            • +1

              @Euphemistic:

              'Sticking it to the power companies' is about not giving them my hard earned.

              Why give your 'hard earned' to battery companies?

              • @jv: Its a choice you need to make. Pay battery manufacturer and then generate and harness your own power or continue to pay whatever price the power co sets for power.

                • +1

                  @Euphemistic: I would not sleep well at night knowing I'm contributing to so much more CO₂

                  • +2

                    @jv: Carbon MONoxide will help you sleep a lot better

                    • @Euphemistic: Not really, you need lots of oxygen to sleep well.

                      • @jv: Try carbon monoxide. Its heaps better.

                  • +1

                    @jv: I don't think you actually care.

                  • @jv: I'm 33, i will not be around long enough for it to be my problem. Can > Kick

              • @jv: Bcause they are not actively raw dogging my a** without lube?

        • +1

          Until you are able to disconnect from the grid, you will still be held hostage by the utter sh!t daily supply charge, and a piss poor FIT.

          • @DoctorCalculon: But 9f youve got a battery you generally dont need to worry about the FIT because your excess goes into the battery. Plus you dont need to buy at peak rates, can buy electricity when its cheapest and use it whenever you want.

      • +1

        Over the lifespan of a battery they are still well below a coal plant, but with renewables becoming more prevalent it won't be long until parity or worse. The link you provided references batteries being charged with dirty electricity. It's hardly the use case we have here.

        • -5

          Over the lifespan of a battery they are still well below a coal plant

          Not really…

          • +5

            @jv: I'll have to not really your not really.

    • +2

      Even my solar installer from 2yrs ago didn't recommend batteries.

  • +9

    Not yet, they dont. But after having my FIT cut from 8c/kWh, down to 5c and now down to 3c, all in 12 months, it wont be long before you are going to be slugged for pumping electricity into the grid. At that point, it will make sense to start looking at adding a battery.

    • That was one of the reasons I started looking into it.. I am now going onto a plan that has 0 FIT and it is worth more than the 3 FIT I was getting from AGL as AGL's standard electricity prices are about 10% higher. We feed in to grid about half of what we generate, so about 4000 Kw a year (mostly in summers).. at 8c few months ago, it was worth $320 a year and now worth nothing. But maths just isnt helping me convince myself to get a battery. Either they drop to half the price they are or offer interest free 10 year loans to make them worth.

    • +2

      Even then, you can just turn off exporting in your inverter settings.

      • :O didnt know that.. where does the electricty go if it is not exported?

        • +5

          Inverters are capable of generating only as much power as is being demanded by the loads connected to it (up to the max output of the inverter). They do this by increasing their terminal voltage above the level of the grid supply - when two voltage supplies are in parallel, current will only be drawn from the supply with the higher voltage (this is a very simplified explanation).

          I stupidly forgot to mention that the inverter must have load monitoring installed on the incoming grid supply so it knows if current starts to flow back to the grid if, for example, a large load in your house is turned off. Then it will quickly ramp down its terminal voltage to precisely the level necessary to supply the remaining loads in your house without current flowing back into the grid or current flowing in from the grid. Its a delicate balancing act but these days inverters have very fast power electronics that can respond to load changes and grid voltage fluctuations very quickly.

  • +12

    I have 13 kwh of batteries which equates to about 10 kwh of usable power. If I'm lucky and it's not cloudy and they fully charge then I can possibly save at best $4 a day. But on average it likely works out to more like saving $2 - $3 a day, let's make it easy and say I save on average $3 a day.

    So per year that's $1095 a year - best case. Then you've got something like 13 years to make your $14.5k back… Batteries could be dead before that and I'd expect their capacity to diminish during that time - so I'd expect more than 13 years (at today's money).

    Good investment? Naaa..

    (Note, I only have my batteries because I got a ridiculous amount of rebates that made them cheap - I'm also rural and suffer more frequent power outages so there's additional value for myself. I paid only $5,790 for a 6.6kwh solar system plus the 13 kwh batteries back in late 2019 due to rebates etc).

    • +6

      At that price it is totally worth it. at RRP, no way.

      • Absolutely, and I agree - I'd never consider it at RRP, the return is just not there and there are risks that you'd never get your money back.

        (unless I did not have a grid connection available).

    • The other calculation that people omit is the use of the battery during the day on those days that are partly cloudy and rather then getting power from the grid it comes from the battery, then when sun comes out the battery charges again etc. Also, in situations when there is a peak use of power during the day and solar is producing say only 2KW and you need another 2KW so the battery provides that extra juice.

  • +4

    Hi, owner of a PW2 here, with 6.6kw panels, 5kw inverter. Looking at my solar generation over the last week, it's about 20kw generated each day (winter). At least for me, an average day in winter will generate enough power to fully recharge my PW2.

    Just going to comment on your assumptions and other things to consider.

    Depending on your usage, another thing to factor is battery's help extend your peak power consumption without pulling power from the Grid. Example: if you're turning things on like your AC/Heat, your unit may start pulling something like 8kw of power, if you're generating 3kw of solar at this time, rather than pulling the remaining 5kw from the grid, the battery starts discharging to meet this demand. Then when this demand dies down, it regenerates this discharged power during the day. This is an example scenario where your daily discharge from your battery can actually be higher than the capacity of the battery, and can go all the way up until the amount of solar power you generate each day.

    Then there's other things to consider depending on whether you want to join a VPP which has it's own benefits, an alternate energy retailer (e.g. Amber), which may impact the rate of electricity you've been using.

    • In Adelaide metro, most winter days the production ranges between 4Kw to 12Kw. And in summer between 30 Kw to 38 kw. (From a 5 Kw (6.6) system)

      • Interesting to see the difference in production from Adelaide (35S) to Perth (32S). My lowest day this winter was just under 6kWh and I've averaged nearly 15kWh per day in June/July. Dec/Jan average was 42.5kWh.

        Same size system, flattish layout, no tree shading. Maybe less cloud cover here.

        • +1

          Yeah we have had lots of rainy days this winter.. I do have East-West layout at 30 degree angle.. no shades etc. Fronius inverter with Trina panels.

          Lowest day 1.5 Kw.. highest day 17.5 Kw.

          Average production for Jun and Jul, 10.85 Kw. Last 10 days of July averaged around 15 Kw per day otherwise we would have averaged under 10 Kw per day for Jun and Jul.

        • Perth weather is more like Sydney than Adelaide.

    • Unless something has changed you'll find your warranty also includes cycles, I believe the average is 10 years or 3650 cycles? Aka, one cycle per day. You may be able to fit in an extra cycle per day but it'll also heavily degrade the battery.

  • +1

    most big $$ efficiency investments wont pay off - double glazing, replacing insulation, battery. Yes you will save on power costs but you can probably stick the money in the bank and use the interest to pay for the higher energy bills and its about break even more or less; or you pay slightly more in energy costs but you might be paying $500 or $1000 more pa and if the upfront cost is $15k or even $10k then it takes a long time to pay off.

    A bigger solar system might pay off though; and when you need to replace heavy power use systems (heater/air con; hot water) then going for mid tier efficient choices can be worthwhile (no point spending $18k on a top tier RC system to save $500 pa over a mid tier $12k RC system)

  • +10

    Nope,

    Buy an EV (hell even a written off EV plugged in full time to the wall is probably the most financially sound solution.)

    Get a battery with a free car!

    • mmm what?

      • +7

        Some EVs can be plugged into your home to provide power.

        Combined with a novated lease there could be good savings.

        I think there's 5-10 years before it makes sense for most people and think low density, low cost sodium batteries might be the way forward for houses.

      • +3

        We have an EV the servicing is cheap for us just $190 for our 45,000km service and we get 12 months roadside assist thrown in. Also based on averages over the last 2 years we have driven the 45,000km so lets break this down into 100km bites (doing this to convert fuel usage) the average petrol usage over 45,000km would be around 3600litres of fuel. (some people may get more, some less, this is the average) and at a price of $1.80lt average over 2 years we have saved $6480, there is also the saving on our rego $100 a year so on average, with cheaper servicing, cheaper rego, free roadside assist and fuel we have saved nearly $7,000. I also bought my EV through our business so there were lots of other savings gst/gov rebate etc. These saving are tax free. I have a 7kw charger in the garage and with our power company we get FREE power (In Victoria) between the hours of 11am and 2pm I can charge my EV for free with 18kWh of power (with some losses) then we also have a 8c kWh or power between Midnight and 6am so if I do a top up I could charge 36kWh for $3.60. This 36kWh could drive me 250km or equivalent of 125km for 1lt of fuel. I could even power some electrical devices in our house in a black out of up to 3600watts if I needed to. The more fuel increase the more I save, and the Middle East isnt looking good. I do wonder if it was just about impossible to buy fuel whether our government would confiscate our EV's

    • +5

      This is usually my suggestion to people. Why spend $15,000 on a home battery, when you can get a 5x or bigger battery that comes with a free car. You are about 1/2 the way to buying a used EV at that point, and most home systems will have a 6~10kWh battery, while an average new EV will have 50~70kWh batteries. Enough power to run an average house for a week or two. An old, used $9,000 Nissan Leaf would still hold more than an average home battery system would.

      Most new EV's come with at least V2L, where you could get a generator port in your garage and use your car to power all the ancillary stuff, like lights, or just pump the excess electrons into to battery and then drive your battery to work, or school, or on holidays. Some of the new "solar aware" chargers are awesome at just skimming all the excess production and putting that in the car.

      • -6

        I guess for most people in suburban areas the issue will be the space an EV will take. Its not really practical for everyone.

        Also, what would it cost to make the $9k EV connected and ready for use? Would you need to maintain a car insurance for the fire risk they come with?

        • +1

          Also, what would it cost to make the $9k EV connected and ready for use?

          Do you even use google before asking questions? - $1k-$3k is the answer.

          Would you need to maintain a car insurance for the fire risk they come with?

          Non issue?
          The fire risk if anything is less than a home battery given the better cooling ability of a car.

          • -8

            @Drakesy: The fire risk from an EV, regardless of how small, is still an issue. The wall battery could be covered under the home insurance but not EV fire. For which you will likely need to maintain a car insurance for full coverage.

            As with all insurances, they are for peace of mind not for likelihood of something happening.

            Also if you have every used google properly and analysed the results, you would find that a human with expereince has more valuable and accurate inputs to provide. You can ask me any questions and I will reply without being a d**k if it helps :)

            • +2

              @Megatron: Are you for real?

              You take out a car insurance regardless of whether the vehicle is an EV or an ICE.

              • @DoctorCalculon: @DoctorCalculon that was in response the initial suggestion to buy a written off EV for using as a full time battery to power the home. Not only that is one bulky battery that will take massive space, it does also add on insurance costs.

                @JIMB0 I have no plans to replace my cars with EVs so as per the recommendation here of buying a cheaper or written off ev, it really would be an extra car purely to be used as a home battery.

            • @Megatron:

              As with all insurances, they are for peace of mind not for likelihood of something happening.

              What do you mean by this? Peace of mind knowing that if something bad happens, it will get fixed and the cost would be capped to the excess.

              E.g. I drive worry free, knowing fully that my policy covers my car whether its my (profanity) up or someone elses.

        • +5

          It won't take up any space if it's replacing an existing car.

        • +2

          Why the downvotes? You make a sensible point and asked some valid questions..

          OzBargain can be a strange place sometimes.

      • Thanks for the info. I'm looking at an EV next year. Does that apply to all EVs?

        I'm considering a small car, like the Nissan Leaf. Do you have sny recommendations?

        • I've got 4.2kw solar, so I'm assuming it's enough.

        • Look at the BYD, you may get a better range for the same price/bigger battery. Also there have a new battery technology where you wont have any issues with thermal runaway as they use a different chemical mix, they are also better to fully charge and deplete without affecting range and Tesla uses BYD batteries in their model Y's

          • @Boro1986: Thanks @Boro1986. I'll take a look.

            They seem very new to the market. Has anyone else here bought one? How are you finding they comparewith other models? ?

        • +1

          Bidirectional charging is in its infancy. Some useful info in this article:

          https://www.mynrma.com.au/electric-vehicles/basics/what-is-v…

          • @us3rnam3tak3n: @us3rnam3tak3n

            Thank you very much. This is really helpful.

          • @us3rnam3tak3n: Following on from the article and some more research, the only two cars with
            DC CHAdeMO which is needed for V2H are the Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi Outlander.

            Looks likexa great option to see if I can go off grid wth my solar, or at least reduce my grid use to a minimum.

  • +2

    Even if it did make sense, I'd still wait. The price of manufacturing batteries has halved the past year or so and is still falling, lithium prices tanked, EVs have seen prices drop significantly and yet household batteries remain the same price.

    There's no way they'll stay that way. Either the government will get serious about V2G/V2H or competition will kick in. Right now battery demand is still high enough from large scale projects that there hasn't been a shift in the market, but it'll hit a point where it makes sense to ramp up production and start selling household batteries for $5k, rather than keeping it as a relatively niche market.

    • In 2017 the v1 Powerwall was $11k installed.
      It is frustrating no vendor is passing through lower battery costs.

      • +1

        Yeah, back then I expected it would cost 5k by now. Whoops.

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