Solar Install Question, but You're Not Sure How Long You'll Be Living There

ozbargainsam on 27/06/2023 - 22:24

Something I probably should've looked into a few years ago but…here we are.

Parents use about $800 a quarter (soon to be $1k) - it's a sizeable country home with a pool. Anyway, they're getting late in their innings and might have to move out somewhere with more support very likely in the next 5 years.

They've quoted us for an 11kW system ($10k for cheapest option, likely $13k+ with Fronius). The payoff is looking to be about 3-4 years (looking at the Origin Solar offers: 'no interest', 14c FiT, etc.). 3 years if we go with the cheap panel and inverter or an extra year+ with the Fronius. Plus moving things into the daylight hours, etc. will help.

Tempted to go with the cheap option, have it pay off early and leave it to the next owners to deal with.

Would you go with solar if the most likely scenario is breaking even?

Home & Garden Solar Energy System

Comments

  • JIMB0 on 27/06/2023 - 22:43
    +3

    Sounds like you'll save most of your money back before they move out. Then it will be easier to sell or rent out with a solar system.

  • AustriaBargain on 27/06/2023 - 22:48
    +3

    If they own the house then it'll add value when it comes time to sell or rent.

  • jv on 27/06/2023 - 22:59
    -2

    but you're not sure how long you'll be living there

    Why? Are you not well?

    • ozbargainsam on 27/06/2023 - 23:02

      Been waiting to say this: I don't know when OzB added the hide button but I'm so glad they did.

      • jv on 27/06/2023 - 23:04

        Where is it?

        • dcep on 27/06/2023 - 23:08

          just below your comment

          reply votes bookmark report hide

          • jv on 27/06/2023 - 23:09

            @dcep: Thanks.

      • ATTS on 28/06/2023 - 12:57

        What hide button do

    • dcep on 27/06/2023 - 23:04
      +1

      Parents ….. they're getting late in their innings and might have to move out somewhere with more support very likely in the next 5 years.

      • jv on 27/06/2023 - 23:04

        I really should read more than the title occasionally…

        • WreckTangle on 28/06/2023 - 08:10

          OP’s parents are professional cricket players. Hope that clears things up.

        • EightImmortals on 28/06/2023 - 08:41

          Don't start a trend, what will the media do if people started reading the articles instead of reacting to the headlines?

  • freefall101 on 27/06/2023 - 23:08
    +1

    Definitely adds value, so I wouldn't be too worried about it.

    However the payback period being 3-4 years is probably unlikely, depending on their usage. If they have gas heating and go to bed by 8pm maybe, but reality is solar doesn't generate heaps of power in winter and way too much in summer, meaning the usage vs generated doesn't balance out very well.

    Every quote I got looking at solar earlier this year promised 3-4 year payback periods. Reality is going to be longer than that (but still worthwhile).

    • jv on 27/06/2023 - 23:10

      reality is solar doesn't generate heaps of power in winter

      or on cold nights.

      • freefall101 on 27/06/2023 - 23:16
        +2

        That's why you should get off the internet and go to sleep

        • jv on 27/06/2023 - 23:18

          I've already slept this month.

    • dcep on 27/06/2023 - 23:15

      Need cheap battery pack to fully utilize solar, but then the battery cost further increases the payback period.

      There is also this geothermal about 30k , which means 8 years payback for OP.

    • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 00:05

      Yeah it's a bit murky in winter, but I suspect the credit in summer will make up for it. Based on the crude ToU data I have, in summer, their self-consumption should be 35%.

      Solarquotes is painting a rosy picture, for some reason their 10kW calculator is showing as generating more than Origin's saying their 11kW system will.

      • CheapandUsed on 28/06/2023 - 07:27

        I have noticed that hydronic heating is making a bit of a comeback.

        Solar during the winter days to heat up the water which then runs through the pipes/ radiators warming the house. If able to go to a heat pump water heater it is cheap to top up the heat overnight (so the sales pitch says).

        • JimB on 28/06/2023 - 12:04

          I've got gas hydronic- slab and panel.

          With gas going up, I'm wondering what the options for hydronic heat pumps are.

          Won't do anything until existing gas boiler dies or Government subsidises the changeover.

          Issue with solar panels are that it produces very little in winter when I most need it for reserve cycle heating.

        • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 13:00

          We have a lot of floor heating, but they're under the controlled load meter, which I've been told can't be hooked in to solar.

  • supersabroso on 27/06/2023 - 23:19
    +2

    It depends on how much they use during daylight hours. We only use about 5kWh a day during the day (due to gas hot water) but at night we use another 20kWh in winter. It's the feed in tariff that is very beneficial. If you're in a rich eastern suburb and actually have all your feed in utilised then go for it. However, if you're in a poor/normal western suburb like myself then just watch it as they cap you at 5kw of feed in at any one point in time (still worth it) which means the extra 6kw that your panels are producing could be going to waste as heat, shortening the lifespan of your solar panels.

    Yes, go with the cheaper option as the Goodwe inverter has a 10 year warranty and the solar panels would have 15 years. Well beyond what you expect to live there. You'll feel great knowing that you have it as it's saving money if stay there longer than 3-4 years, good for the environment, gives a good feeling everyday whilst it's sunny at your house and it will up the sale value of your house even if you only break even.

    • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 00:07

      We have 3-phase - I think that means we shouldn't be capped.

      Thanks. I think you've convinced me to go ahead.

  • upended on 27/06/2023 - 23:32

    Not sure where the property is located, but in NSW at least, some companies will only give you a FIT if the inverter is rated 10kWh or lower. Different if you plan to get it installed from Origin and then sign up for one of their plans.

    • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 00:12

      Hmm. Cheeky.

      The salesperson at Origin didn't mention the 10kW cap for their bonus FiT. Their quote/summary on the 11kW system even mentions the 14c FiT. I have to give them a call tomorrow anyway. Wonder if they can sell me a 9.99kW system

      • SBOB on 28/06/2023 - 01:09

        11kW system

        Is it an 11kw inverter?
        Usually panel kw > inverter kw ( to the allowable over allocation of panel to inverter ratio) and for actual maximum generation and export limits it's the inverter size that you should be focusing on

        • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 12:57

          I'm not sure of the specifics of the deal. The fine print on Origin's page just says 'no larger than 10kW system'. Of course a 10kW inverter (which they've quoted) is the max that can be exported so might still be within their terms.

          • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 17:33

            @ozbargainsam: That 10kW cap is apparently an error/out of date condition on the website. There's no limit.

      • upended on 28/06/2023 - 06:49
        +1

        As SBOB says, ask about the inverter and whether it is 10kWh or less. The total kWh for the entire system (including solar panels) will be generally higher than the inverter capacity. The kW system you refer to in your OP is most likely for the entire system, not the inverter.

        Another point to consider if you plan on installing a battery in the future (depending upon whether you sell or rent down the line). If you do, make sure the system is battery-ready. All inverters are not battery-ready and all battery-ready inverters don’t necessarily work with all battery brands.

        • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 12:59

          Yeah, I've had some friends warn me to be mindful of the inverter choice if battery/EV was an option. Thanks.

  • chartparker on 28/06/2023 - 08:23

    I had my solar system installed when the first round of rebates were available in Victoria, and by my calculations the savings/feed in etc mean that my system install cost was paid off after 4-5 years. At this point it's now just helping with power bills

  • Seraphin7 on 28/06/2023 - 09:02

    Would you go with solar if the most likely scenario is breaking even?

    No. Unfortunately "most likely" is often closer to "best case" in may of these analyses. Once you factor in a level of uncertainty, I would not be going with an investment that is expected to break even.

    • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 13:03

      Yeah, it's very variable. There are a lot of things on our side of the balance sheet, including rates inflation, interest free offered by Origin ('worth' about $1k to us depending on how you calculate it), the initially high FiT.

      But like others have said, maybe we won't get it back in the power bill savings, but we'll get it back on the sale of the property.

      • Seraphin7 on 28/06/2023 - 13:42

        but we'll get it back on the sale of the property

        I wouldn't necessarily take that view, although $10k is not actually going to be visible in a property sale a few years down the road.

        Buy for your own benefit by all means, but it's unlikely to be viewed as a "capital improvement" at sale time.

        • zoob on 29/06/2023 - 22:07

          Having recently bought a house, solar panels were one of those things we would make note of while we were looking, but it really made no difference in our thinking around what we would buy and what our upper limit was. It's one of those things that's relatively inexpensive and easy to do yourself, unlike bigger picture stuff like how many bedrooms there are, whether the kitchen/bathroom have been recently renovated etc.

  • Drakesy on 28/06/2023 - 10:39

    Geezus what are they running, like 10 air conditioners?

    If you're not sure maybe cut down on the number of panels back to a 6.6kw system?

    My 6.6kw system was $2500 after rebates and will pay for itself in roughly 5 years, i'd imagine yours would take 8-10.
    Honestly though during summer when you get a rebate it's great.

  • stampella on 28/06/2023 - 10:43
    +1

    Check if the 14c FIT are for unlimited kWh or for a set amount. Lately I have seen such favourable rates only on a small fraction of the total possible export.
    Check if you are export limited by your energy distributor and factor that in. The installer might not include that bit in their ROI calculations.
    I can almost guarantee that the self-consumption estimates will be "tweaked" to make it appears like you will self-use a large portion of the energy produced. This might not actually be the case, especially in summer and without battery storage and, with an eventual limited export capacity this turns to a much slower ROI.
    Source: I'm a solar, efficiency, home automation and stats monitoring buff and installed a solar system + battery in 2019.

    • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 13:06

      Thanks, I've added some of those as questions back to Origin.

      Also, I need to find out how bad the Goodwe monitoring interface and data output is.

  • brad1-8tsi on 28/06/2023 - 11:01
    +1

    I recently put in a 5.4kW system (all the roof could hold). Payback is 6 years. I'll only be here 3 years.

    I went with entry level "good /acceptable" (Goodwe inverter, Jollywood Panels)

    I figure that the $5000 cost will be recouped in the sale price. My site has difficult access, is 3 stories and is Strata so most folk wouldn't bother with the hassle.

    Next step is to get rid of IGHW and gas cooktop and become full electric.

  • GourmetFoodie on 28/06/2023 - 13:42

    A 3-4 year payoff these days is pretty rare. I’ve done a bunch of research on this and about 7 years is the average payoff for most people. Your numbers don’t pass the smell test to me.

    • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 14:59

      I should've added a poll.

      Yes, I've considered the 'real' pay off period but I don't know how to go about determining it. I'd go and request the detailed time of use meter data (Energy Australia used to have these available on their accounts page) for the last year, and get average solar output by hour of day by month.

      Until then, I have some rough numbers for a sunny/summer quarter, assume winter is half as productive in terms of pay off (e.g. a year is three summer's worth) which gives me 4.6 years. This would be before the 'no interest' benefit, and increase in power prices over time, but ignores reduction in FiT.

  • Euphemistic on 28/06/2023 - 16:11

    IMO if you are close to the payback period it’s worth going ahead. Power prices seem to be only going one way and the higher the price the shorter the payback. Plus it’ll be a selling point at sale time.

  • thefreelunch on 28/06/2023 - 21:01

    It sounds like a big system for that sized electricity bill, especially if they may move out in a few years. But you really have to take a closer look at the way the house uses energy. For us, the bulk of use is hot water and ducted air-conditioning. Both units can use around 4.5kWh. We installed the most common solar 6.6kW panels with a 5kW inverter eight months ago, but the inverter size caps the maximum amount of solar that can be generated at any one time - a slight issue for us given air-conditioning/heating can drain that full amount when on. I've checked our initial quote and while the predicted of amount of solar generated was about right, the amount predicted for home use was not even close to reality. It's still worth it as our house is fully electric and energy prices have gone up 50% since install.

  • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 21:06

    Turns out we need to replace our asbestos meter/circuit board as well. My guess it'll cost a pretty penny to get that done.

    • SBOB on 28/06/2023 - 21:08

      2k min I would guess for a switchboard refurb

      • ozbargainsam on 28/06/2023 - 21:34

        Certainly puts a damper on the idea. Though it's probably going to be a cost against us when it comes to selling the house if we don't replace it.

        • zoob on 29/06/2023 - 22:14

          I would be very surprised if any buyer takes any notice of the switchboard. Based on the info you've provided I'd suggest investing elsewhere as it seems unlikely that you'll make much on the solar in such a short time.

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