Bitcoin over $30k USD again, proving naysayers wrong once again

techlead on 12/04/2023 - 11:47
Last edited 16/04/2023 - 16:51

Bitcoin has penetrated the $30k USD and appears to be holding, looking at the charts, it looks like the beginning of another bull market which can take its price to $100k, $200k and beyond. Goes without saying, but still this is my own opinion only, not financial advice. I'm just opining on the potential future price of BTC, it may or may not eventuate, I don't have control over the price of BTC. Do not rely on my posts and comments, its for educational/entertainment/lively debating purposes only.

I look at other investment classes, shares, bonds, property, its all doom and gloom. This is why I've decided against buying an investment property, I just do get where the attraction is from. I'm investment vehicle agnostic, I just want the best vehicle to make the most returns. Of course risk is very hard set, and some investment vehicles are much much more susceptible to regulation and other shocks. Take the property market for example, there is a range of regulation changes, which governments can implement which will cause it to break, look at China as a very good example, a rule change reining in how much debt developers can take on, rippled through the market and broke it.

Cryptocurrencies are not immune, however they are much much more resilient to these regulation changes. Of course, it will be affected by it if governments attempt to ban it or otherwise restrict it.

I find it very funny reading through https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/, which shows a collection of what naysayers have said throughout the years and Bitcoin has proven them all wrong. Take a look at this from Dan Pena, he said this when Bitcoin dropped from $6k to $3k and he was doing a little victory rant, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX21rnDV-oo. Now Bitcoin has proven him wrong, and he has egg all over his face. Its so funny, everything he said about Bitcoin turned out to be wrong.

Personally, I thought Bitcoin was a scam from 2009 to 2013. I knew about its existence shortly after it was created and I read and understood the whitepaper, but didn't believe it would work. This changed in 2013, happy to be proven wrong and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have allowed me to accumulate a nice small fortune. I've done calculations on the alternatives, if I didn't buy Bitcoin and other cryptos from 2013, eg purchased an investment property, purchased apple shares etc, and none could have allowed me to amass my net wealth today. So with 20/20 hindsight, I'm glad I made the right decision back in 2013.

Has your perception about cryptocurrency changed over the years?

Update - adding in some common points people put in the comments.

Crypto is a zero sum game. For you to make money, someone needs to lose money.

This is not true, shares and property are not zero sum games, hence crypto which is another asset just like shares and property is not a zero sum game.
Here's a recent trade I did. I purchased 20.82 BTC late 2022 at $16688 USD per BTC, I sold it over the last few days at an average price of around $30100 USD per BTC because I want to purchase a property to live in soon.

In this scenario, who lost money?
1. The people who sold it to me late 2022
2. me or
3. the people who bought it off me a few days ago. BTC is $30184 USD at the time of writing.

Bitcoin is based on "thin air", its not backed by anything.

Bitcoin was created in the aftermath of the GFC, which is either forgotten or just not experienced by people. Bitcoin's value is based on its decentralised, censorship resistant and permissionless network, which is a god send for people in oppressive regimes with unstable fiat currencies. It is also based on trust, through its open sourced code.

Much of our economy is based on trust without the transparency. We trust that our RBA gives us accurate data on how much money it conjures up from "thin air". Unlike Bitcoin, we can't easily verify it, how do we know they haven't printed a trillion AUD?

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 15:03
      +1

      How does that compare to property and shares investing? Baccarat and roulette is nothing like property, shares or crypto investing.

      • [Deactivated] on 12/04/2023 - 15:49
        +3

        Property and shares are long term investments that have a history of going up. Crypto has a history of volatility. Baccarat is statistically your best chance of losing as little money as possible when money laundering, I mean gambling.

        • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 16:23
          +1

          Property and shares are long term investments that have a history of going up.

          You just proven my point. Bitcoin also has a history of going up, if you chart Bitcoin's price from inception till now and work out the average trend, its up and its gradient would be much steeper to the upside than property and shares. My net wealth demonstrates this. I could never have amass the net wealth I have today with any share/s or property/properties.

          Crypto has a history of volatility

          Volatility means movements up and down, the fact that crypto is volatile means there's more potential gains. Bitcoin and other quality cryptos go up and down wildly but trend up, you get the picture. I like this asset than something that goes slowly like property. In less than 10 years, I can retire with my Bitcoin investment, after 10 years, most property investors are still in debt.

          when money laundering, I mean gambling.

          People gamble and money launder with property as well. That's why there are calls for AML checks for property transactions. Every investment is gambling, take gambling out of the property market.

          • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 00:40

            @techlead: Bitcoin is less than 15 years old. That’s not a history, that’s a sneeze. Even Madoff keeps it going longer than that.

            after 10 years, most property investors are still in debt.

            Lol on what planet do you live, it’s not this one that’s for sure.

            There are millions of investments that ‘trended up’ for many decades longer than crypto has existed that are worth nothing now.

            Of course it’s going to have a steeper gradient than property, property has been sold for hundreds to thousands of years and crypto is a teenager. If I sold myself a ‘fake coin’ I created today tomorrow for $10 it would have an even steeper ‘gradient’ than bitcoin. That’s a meaningless measurement for the future, it’s simply a reflection of a short history and being ‘first’.

            Volatility doesn’t mean ‘up and down’ it means the rate the price moves change significantly. That’s bad unless you’re doing, as all evidence suggests, a pump and dump. Where you convince people that something will rise in value, before selling. Then it falls, they sell at a loss, you repeat. That’s how you make money in Crypto all right, and how people lose it. It’s something illegal in other investments, because volatility has generally been regarded (historically accurately) as a sign an investment is doomed to fail.

  • Wiadro on 12/04/2023 - 15:21
    +6

    not more crypto shilling.

  • freefall101 on 12/04/2023 - 15:46
    +3

    Bitcoin hit $30k because people also short bitcoin, which is just as stupid as buying it. Running on a gut feel that it will go down vs running on a gut feel that it will go up resulted on them having to close out their positions.

    Most of the bitcoin gurus (whether for or against) out there change their tune though every time bitcoin does what they don't expect. First it was going to replace money (never happen), then it moved onto being like stocks and mirroring the market (didn't happen), lately I've heard it's like gold which is probably more accurate because it's just stashing money in a way anyone can do (in a simpler way than keeping gold bricks under your floorboards) with a fanbase who are apparently set on HODLing it until the end or because so much of it can't legitimately be turned into cash because it has been lost, is illicit and traceable or sitting in a government vault waiting to be cashed in. It's impossible to tell which of those is actually true which makes predictions about its future value completely useless.

    • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 00:43

      ‘Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent’

      As true now as ever.

      The people who can make money on cryptocurrency reliably are those who can influence the value in ways they couldn’t legally do with shares, then trade off that. Only a handful of people in that category and millions that think they are.

  • JIMB0 on 12/04/2023 - 16:40
    +3

    Why don't you tell us about any losing trades?

  • shaybisc on 12/04/2023 - 18:05

    As far as I can tell Bitcoin only has one practical use, and it's not good at that. It's the same one I identified in 2014 when I first looked at it - to buy illegal stuff on darknet markets. But reading up now I see that it's losing favour even for that. Anonymity turned out to be a giant flop and because Bitcoin has weak privacy it is not fungible.

    In fact I wonder, as I did in 2014, why Monero isn't worth more than Bitcoin. What is the rational reason? It is superior in every way.

    Ah, it's all coming back to me - restricted supply, which will work to increase price, while there is still demand.

    • avoidfullprice on 12/04/2023 - 19:16

      The anonymity part is quite misunderstood by adopters if you think about it. Just because no one has a database of identity-hashkey doesn't mean transactions can’t be traced back. You need to provide your wallet address to receive coins. Finding out which addresses you own is a matter of time.

    • Lucille Bluth on 12/04/2023 - 23:45

      It is superior in every way

      Some things at the top of my mind:

      • Monero has unlimited supply. BTC doesn't and is capped at 21mil. And it's inflation rate is much lower and keeps reducing until the final Sat will be mined in 100 years
      • BTC has a higher hash rate = more secure network and less vulnerable to attacks.
      • BTC has been around longer, adaption is higher. Higher liquidity.
      • BTC has become legal tender in some countries.
      • SEC has stated BTC is a commodity and everything else a security.
      • John McAfee.
      • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 00:58

        One wonders if it isn’t that ability to trace it that has lead to government’s being less resistant to it since they figure it’s easier to collect their taxes and trace transactions. Thus the fatal flaw is the reason for its existence in any meaningful way.

        Of course an ability to avoid sanctions and funnel state money to personal wallets is perhaps the reason it became legal tender.

        And that didn’t go so well either.
        https://www.context.news/big-tech/opinion/bitcoin-el-salvado…

        And it's inflation rate is much lower and keeps reducing until the final Sat will be mined in 100 years

        It’s weird Bitcoin has effectively inflated faster than the USD over the last few years (dropping value vs a currency itself with high inflation) so it’s failing pretty hard at being an inflationary hedge.

        Supply and inflation aren’t relevant if being used in quick transactions that are cashed out to fiat. Volatility is a negative though. The fixed supply is only relevant if you think demand will hold or increase, especially as supply runs out which could see a pretty quick spike in value before a total wipeout if the incentive to run that network isn’t sufficient to keep transactions flowing, it could essentially become insecure or non transactable.

  • Farrba on 12/04/2023 - 20:23
    +2

    my btc from 2021 still in red :(

    • lostgoat on 12/04/2023 - 20:33
      +1

      Don't worry OP is using no time frame . 30 years it might be 200K hehe :) No doubt if still alive .

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:37
      +1

      You are in good company, many shares and property investors if not all who bought in 2021/2022 are in the red, some even in negative equity, which means they've lost more than 100%.

      • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:05
        +1

        Almost no shares (indexes) and property bought in 2021 are negative, 2022,sure. But even the 2022 losses haven’t offset the gains since 2022 in major share indices or property medians.

        Where as all bitcoin investors who bought 2 years ago are barely above half their purchase price.

        Trivial to prove misinformation doesn’t make your case stronger, even if you’re trying to slip through by deliberately adding ‘2022’ to someone who said they bought in 2021 to make it seem like you have a shred of awareness of reality.

        There absolutely can be individual shares and property worth less over the last two years, but that’s because property isn’t fungible and there’s lots of shares, even ones that invest in cryptocurrencies. But on average both classes in Australia are up, and that before you willfully discount their incomes over that period.

  • Look Up on 12/04/2023 - 22:24
    +1

    More BTC888 and ETH10X number plate variants incoming

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:34
      +2

      I don't even wear a crypto related T shirt lol. I don't want to put a target on my back, I'd get hacked with a $15 wrench (used to be $5 but increased due to inflation :P)

  • mr_asstight on 12/04/2023 - 22:31
    +1

    OP talking up his book again.

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:33

      My book? I didn't know I have a book?

  • Willy Beamish on 13/04/2023 - 00:38
    +2

    Oh em gee crypto went up? Op better invest all money then since crypto never goes down after it goes up that's just impossible

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:33
      -1

      Who said it never goes down?

      I only hear that from my property investing friends, who've only ever experienced interest rate drops in their investing lifetime. They seriously said that property will go to the moon because the RBA said they wouldn't increase interest rates until 2024 and they said they would have sold out before then. hahaha, now they are complaining how expensive their loans are lmao.

      • StalkingIbis on 13/04/2023 - 10:56
        +2

        you keep dumb company…

      • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:08

        They probably shouldn’t have borrowed to buy crypto….

        Also how young and inexperienced do you have to be to only know people that haven’t seen an interest rate rise? That’s the sort of echo chamber that convinces people to buy crypto.

  • liongalahad on 13/04/2023 - 01:00
    +4

    Are we really still listening and replying to this 🤡?

    • GandalfTheCheap on 13/04/2023 - 08:47
      +2

      Being human nable to downvote forum posts is one of the biggest flaws of OzBargain.

      Always some ridiculous time-wasting threads on the front page…

      • liongalahad on 13/04/2023 - 09:28
        +2

        Yeah true, forum posts should have the +/- buttons like deals hey

  • ATangk on 13/04/2023 - 01:22
    +1

    Crypto investment went up, didnt cashout. Went down, didnt think about it. Now its about exactly where I started.

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:04

      This must be your first cycle, I had the same mentality.

      I bought 2BTC in 2013 for $800USD each. Went down 50-60% in a few months, didn't break even until 2014, more a year later, wanted to sell out, forgot my exchange password, didn't bother resetting it, then decided to buy more and continued to buy till today. Worked out pretty well. I will never sell those original 2 BTC, it has sentimental value.

      • ATangk on 13/04/2023 - 10:34
        +1

        You’d be stupid not to sell it. Maybe not now but when you need the cash, don’t hold back.

  • hawkshead on 13/04/2023 - 06:07
    +5

    Thank you for the marketing speach on bitcoin. Not interested.

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:31

      *speech lol

      You can keep drinking the property investing koolaid then.

      • hawkshead on 13/04/2023 - 22:00
        +3

        Not interested in exploiting poor people. But thanks for the schpiel.

  • brettski on 13/04/2023 - 06:44
    +6

    OP is clearly another crypto-bro trying to sucker in the financially inexperienced to keep pumping air into this scam. Moving on…

  • DingoBilly on 13/04/2023 - 06:48
    +1

    Lol. Someone really doesn't understand short-term fluctuations. This guy is more likely to lose all his money "investing" into crypto than keeping it long-term. Ultimately it's a gamble and it has as much chance of going to $1000 then it is to go to $100k. It is a high-risk asset at best, and realistically given it has no backing or actual value it is just a zero-sum game.

    Stop shilling your ponzi scheme. And a word of warning to others that it is purely a ponzi - don't get sucked in by BS.

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:30
      +1

      Ultimately it's a gamble and it has as much chance of going to $1000 then it is to go to $100k.

      How so? I'm still waiting for $10k Bitcoin.

      It is a high-risk asset at best, and realistically given it has no backing or actual value it is just a zero-sum game.

      How is it a zero sum game? Do you know what that is?

      Stop shilling your ponzi scheme. And a word of warning to others that it is purely a ponzi - don't get sucked in by BS.

      How is it a ponzi scheme? Do you know what a ponzi scheme is?

      • DingoBilly on 13/04/2023 - 12:23

        Do you understand how the future works? I can't show you a price of $1k because it hasn't happened yet. But to say that it will 100% go past $100k is complete bullshit and foolhardy. If it was that certain many more people would have bought in. But it's pure speculation which way it goes. Have a few big exchanges go under and crypto plummets.

        Yes. Crypto is essentially a ponzi. A ponzi is: "a form of fraud in which belief in the success of a non-existent enterprise is fostered by the payment of quick returns to the first investors from money invested by later investors."

        This is crypto in a nutshell. Why are you on here shilling crypto? Because you want people to buy in and drive the price up… Lol it's very obvious no? And guess what happens if there are no investors - it goes down. There is no use case for bitcoin so it is a non-existent enterprise. The question is do you understand what a ponzi scheme is?

        Zero sum game follows the same logic. You are relying on selling your btc in future to someone to make profit. That's all there is to it… If I buy a house or shares I actually own something worth something. If I buy some digital currency… Uhh good on you.

        We spoke in the other discussion thread that you wouldn't touch NFTs as you think they're a rort… But they're exactly the same thing (in many cases NFTs actually have more use cases than BTC). It's ironic you can't see that though.

        • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 12:38
          +1

          success of a non-existent enterprise

          That's completely wrong, in fact that's the total opposite, there's complete transparency in BItcoin's enterprise, which is to provide a way to transfer value on a decentralised, censorship resistant and permissionless network. This is easily verifiable both in its open source code and its actual operation, so right there, it doesn't fit in your definition of a Ponzi scheme.

          by the payment of quick returns to the first investors from money invested by later investors.

          No one promised anything, who promised you "quick returns" on Bitcoin, apart from scammers and criminals, in which case, scammers are gonna scam, criminals are gonna crim in any industry.

          returns to the first investors from money invested by later investors

          This mechanism exists in any asset, apple shares, Tesla shares, property etc.

          Zero sum game follows the same logic. You are relying on selling your btc in future to someone to make profit.

          That's not the definition of a zero sum game lmao. ALL assets rely on the ability to sell to someone in the future to make profit. You've just described a market, congratulation lol.

          If I buy a house or shares I actually own something worth something. If I buy some digital currency… Uhh good on you.

          LIke a house and shares, a Bitcoin is worth what the market says its worth. Bitcoin's price is dictated by the market, it is not controlled by anyone, its more liquid than many penny stocks, so if you are going to talk about manipulation, this exists in the regulated share market too.

          We spoke in the other discussion thread that you wouldn't touch NFTs as you think they're a rort… But they're exactly the same thing (in many cases NFTs actually have more use cases than BTC). It's ironic you can't see that though.

          NFTs are nothing like Bitcoin or ETH. Firstly, NFTs don't have their own network. NFTs are more like a website on the internet, while Bitcoin is the internet. The value I give to NFTs is similiar to a painting, not very much, I definitely wouldn't be spending millions or even hundreds on a painting.

          • DingoBilly on 13/04/2023 - 13:06
            -1

            @techlead: Put it this way - you yourself sold bitcoin - yet you claim it has a strong future? That's a bit odd don't you think?

            As for your other points - it's a belief thing as to whether btc has any value or not. Inherently it has zero value but people can decide for themselves. For myself it's pretty simple - would you rather have a house worth $0 or a digital crypto worth $0? Hopefully you can see why the two are different because the house is at least something you can live in worst case scenario. There are thousands of crypto coins worth nothing that are literally just worthless.

            BTC has no value in the same way. You've just bought into a belief and you can't get out of it. That's ok - everyone is entitled to their beliefs and if you're religious or whatever that's fine too. But you are just speculating and gambling at end of day.

            Unfortunately it's hard to argue with people with these hard beliefs as they don't see logic and can't see out of their small view. You haven't really answered the first post properly and I imagine you'll try to throw this one out as well and that's ok. You can either rub it in my face when it hits $100k or equally as likely you'll just disappear when it falls apart.

            But please stop taking innocent other people along for the ride and scamming them. You don't make these posts for education but just to get others to pump your bags.

            • mitchalbrown on 14/04/2023 - 10:52
              +1

              @DingoBilly: Is there a difference between convition and belief?

              You're right in that anyone would choose a house worth 0 over a bitcoin worth zero, it would be crazy to argue that. but lest say in 1999 someone gave you 100,000 paypal shares worth zero and said "you can have these or a house worth zero"… You would pronbably still make the same choice. It would be a no brainer…

              But here's the thing… no one is offering us the opportunity to buy houses at reasonable prices…. they are huge capital investments and out of reach for a growing number of people. There's 2 classes of people who invest in crypto… The guys that know the tech and can understand how it can make current systems irrelevant and then there's the speculatoooor who see's number go up and everyone else getting in on the hype train and want to be part of the millionairs club.

              the first group is driven by conviction through understanding but the second group is driven by desperation through belief… with what i said earlier about house prices and the general funneling of wealth into the upper echelons of society you can hardly blame them.

              Meanwhile, the first group is quietly building the next generation of technology stacks which crypto currencies serve and will be buying these cryptos and selling these cryptos to fund their Web3 businesses.

              Bitcoin is every bit a superior version of PayPal… I'm in with the complete understanding that it might not gain mass adoption and go to zero but I would have made the same bet with PayPal because it was superior to any other online payment system of it's time.

  • Canberralad92 on 13/04/2023 - 07:18
    +3

    Maybe you should go circle jerk on Reddit or something instead?

  • imurgod on 13/04/2023 - 07:39

    Ponzi scheme

  • buderim11 on 13/04/2023 - 07:44

    This could be big for bitcoin the BRICS countries want to use them to weaken the USD. https://greatgameindia.com/breaking-dollar-hegemony-brics-dr…

    • misu p on 13/04/2023 - 08:46
      +1

      Have you even read that article? I did.

      Where does it even say that the BRICS countries have started adopting crypto (except the title)? The article makes correct statements and arriving to no conclusion except the title that is just plainly false.

      It is just a scenario that fails reality. Both China and Russia at least are fighting very hard to control their own currency, they are in no way supporting crypto.

    • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:15

      https://theconversation.com/one-year-on-el-salvadors-bitcoin…

      It’s ok for avoiding international sanctions (and siphoning money from your citizen to an offshore bank account) I guess. Ironically if it were to do something as drastic as significantly weaken the USD and provide a significant way around sanctions (it won’t) you’d find it made illegal in much of the first world as a result and liquidity would drop to almost nothing. At the moment the majority of the value it has is due to the favorable treatment the US government has given it, by way of wealthy donors who may have moved onto the next scheme already….

      • mitchalbrown on 14/04/2023 - 11:12
        +1

        At least with Bitcoin everyone can actually watch the money being siphoned off… a feature conveniently missing from fiat cash.

        • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 11:21

          Governments can, ‘everyone’ else just sees it as anonymous transfers.

          • mitchalbrown on 14/04/2023 - 11:24
            +1

            @JumperC: yes… this is my point… citizens are unable to hold their governments to account when the are stealing their money when they do not have access to the information. if governments are adopting bitcoin then the governments are essentially making their transactions more transparent because anyone can punch the government wallet address into a block explorer and see the movement of funds.

  • vorsprung on 13/04/2023 - 07:56
    +1

    $100 or $200k? My mate said $1m. I reckon $5m why not.

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:02
      +1

      Eventually.

      Do you expect the median property price for Sydney to be $5 mil one day? I think so, one day in the future. There is no ceiling to asset prices because there is no floor to the purchasing power of our fiat currency.

      • nobro25 on 13/04/2023 - 11:08

        "One day"? If course it will. It's basically gonna be an eventuality.

        1. Inflation is gonna coz the dollar to devalue therefore everything is more expensive. $5 for milk and bread where that would've been $1 30~40 years ago.

        2. Property construction is outside of Sydney now and even then you're forking out $500,000 for a 2 bedroom house. So inside of Sydney it's much more expensive.

        • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:19

          In the last two years bitcoin has gone down more than twice as fast as inflation has gone up. If you put your money in Bitcoin in early 2021 you’d be buying barely half as much with it now than if you kept it in cash, itself devalued over that period…. That’s quite the achievement given basically everything else has increased significantly over that period.

    • liongalahad on 13/04/2023 - 11:09
      +1

      I go for $1B value by 2100, mark my words

    • filmer on 14/04/2023 - 09:38
      +1

      I think eventually it will go belly up and be worth nothing.

  • Kayrhcp on 13/04/2023 - 08:06
    +1

    Weird how people who resent the other side claiming ‘victory’ are just as quick to do so, despite neither side witnessing the ‘end point’ of the journey either way

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:26
      +1

      Well, where's the "end point"?

      Check this out, https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/. This details some of the articles that have been written about Bitcoin over the years saying its dead.

      https://99bitcoins.com/the-bitcoin-bros-have-lost-deal-break…

      “The Bitcoin Bros Have Lost” – Deal Breaker | $577.58

      Can we claim victory over this naysayer who said "Bitcoin Bros have lost" when BTC was $577.58?

      Is it too soon to laugh at Dan Pena who said Bitcoin is going to zero at $3300USD? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX21rnDV-oo&themeRefresh=1

      • Kayrhcp on 13/04/2023 - 09:29
        +2

        You also claimed Bitcoin was going to 100k, 200k and I believe in one comment I saw you say the potential gains are infinite/limitless.

        Have you stopped to think that right now, you are as wrong as they are? In fact seeing as Bitcoin did crash multiple times, and severely, they have at least, at one point, been more correct than you?

        • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 09:33
          +2

          they have at least, at one point, been more correct than you?

          How so? Saying Bitcoin is dead, implies that its done, finished, value go to zero, like Dan Pena, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX21rnDV-oo. In what way are they more correct than me?

          You also claimed Bitcoin was going to 100k, 200k and I believe in one comment I saw you say the potential gains are infinite/limitless.

          Yes, there is no ceiling to Bitcoin's price because there is no floor to the value of fiat currency, this actually applies to all assets.

          Do you think there is a cap to property prices? Of course not, I think the median property price in Sydney will be $5 mil some day, and its not going to stop there, it will be $6 mil, $7 mil and beyond to infinity because there is no floor to the value of fiat currency, we are going to keep printing and inflating.

          • Kayrhcp on 13/04/2023 - 09:59
            +3

            @techlead: Bitcoin isn’t dead. It’s also not, never has been, and isn’t guaranteed, to make 100k at this point.

            Those are two facts. You’re both wrong. That is inarguable.

            Which is why I believe your current victory lap is bizarre and short sighted. 30k was a humiliating milestone a year ago for Bitcoin, I don’t understand why in 2023 it should be seen as some resounding ‘we were right’ for those same advocates.

            If you choose to be a little less zero sum about it, those that predicted Bitcoin would fail, have been more correct than those that said it would go to the moon. Because it has undergone humiliating failures in stability and growth in the past year or two. So I stand by my statement.

            Ok so in response to your other comments, I’m hearing general responses from you that have been regurgitated in other comments that I simply don’t agree with.

            If you’re looking to convince me you’re right, you won’t, and if you’re not going to be convinced of anything I noted, then we may need to just agree to disagree.

            • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 10:16
              +1

              @Kayrhcp: I don't understand why you think Bitcoin is such a failure because it has dropped from its peak. I'm very intrigued to know. I enjoy talking to skeptics and people who disagree with me than people who agree with me because it would just be a circle jerk with people who agree with me which is not as fun as it sounds.

              This is how market cycles work, all assets have dropped from their peak.

              Tesla $407 $180 55.774% decrease
              Meta $378 $214 43.3862% decrease
              Sydney median house $1403154 $1230581 −13.3% actual decrease is 61.4947% due to leverage
              Sydney median apartment $833815 $776780 -8.7% actual decrease would be more due to leverage

              For property prices, you have to take leverage into account, for example, let's say I bought a house at the median price, $1403154, I paid $280,630.80 (20% deposit) plus $61,684.40 stamp duty, disregarding all other costs, with the drop of $172,573, it means I only have $108,057.8 equity left in my property. That's a 61.4947% decrease in my net wealth, treating stamp duty as a sunk cost and disregarding all other property costs.

              That's pretty bad isn't it? Isn't that more "humiliating"? Some people are in negative equity, which means they've lost 100% of their equity, the bank owns 100+% of their property, they own nothing.

              Very happy to be corrected. If my view doesn't stand up to scrutiny, then its not worth having.

              • Kayrhcp on 13/04/2023 - 11:19
                +1

                @techlead: Firstly, it's not that I think Bitcoin is a failure. I think Bitcoin is just a number that goes up and down… I just don't think it's the resounding success story that the original post asserted.

                Anyways, let's go on. I kinda feel like we shouldn't have to resort to other examples to expand on the initial discussion of 30k being a success. We're talking about Bitcoin. is bitcoin a success? What's the measure of calling it a success compared to a failure? If 30k is the milestone for you, then that's fine. But it's not the case for me.

                But let's play that game of comparison. Yes, of course those other examples are "humiliating"… But that begs the question - is that the best argument for bitcoin as a success? To compare it to Tesla? Which, might I add, bitcoin is closest to out of all those examples (due to losses of about ~53% from peak…. and that's compared to todays price, not when it was closer to 15k)? Is that really the best argument? because, again, if that's the case I'm not convinced.

              • fourofjacks on 13/04/2023 - 23:19
                +1

                @techlead: For fair commission, compare leveraging with 20% deposit buying bitcoin at peak and position at the bottom.

          • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:26
            -1

            @techlead:

            Yes, there is no ceiling to Bitcoin's price because there is no floor to the value of fiat currency, this actually applies to all assets.

            It’s simply isn’t true, the ceiling of bitcoin is whatever disposable money people who ‘believe’ in it have to spare the number of bitcoins. It’s value at all is reliant on that number rising, in fiat.

            Fiat doesn’t really find a floor because society collapses well before then. Your bitcoin could be worth $200k but if that’s what a toothpick is worth then sure.

            Other assets aren’t really the same. Non perishable food and shelter always has a floor value. Everything else pretty much, including bitcoin depends on a functioning society. You can’t do much with bitcoin if the power grid collapses and there’s no internet, it becomes valueless.

            • mitchalbrown on 14/04/2023 - 11:05

              @JumperC: you can GTFO of wherever you are though and move to a place where the currency hasn't collaped and continue your life… the world rarely falls apart everywhere all at once.

  • Odin on 13/04/2023 - 08:17
    +3

    It's pretty hard to deny the continued success of Bitcoin at this point.

    • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:28
      +2

      Depends on how you define success. You certainly can’t deny it’s existence. It’s had a multitude of significant failures and setbacks, but all human life is a success if we set an early enough point to measure from.

    • modiika on 17/04/2023 - 17:14

      in what sense? Surely not as a currency.

  • misu p on 13/04/2023 - 08:37

    Why do you feel the need to constantly push Bitcoin mate? Just keep quiet, invest more in it and enjoy your winnings.

    Why would you ruin a good thing for yourself like this? I would tell people that it is bad… keep it all for myself…

    It just feels like you need others to buy it to have any value… surely that is not the case, right? I would personally not be able to sleep at night if that would be the case.

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:44
      +2

      Why do you feel the need to constantly push Bitcoin mate? Just keep quiet, invest more in it and enjoy your winnings.

      Its the same mentality as these people:
      https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/buying/16079-inve…
      https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-in-rental-properti… - Paywall
      Justin Heiner is a real-estate investor who was able to retire at 37 thanks to passive income from rental properties.
      https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/aussie-dad-m…
      https://www.realestate.com.au/news/investor-with-200plus-pro…

      Why would you ruin a good thing for yourself like this? I would tell people that it is bad… keep it all for myself…

      Why would telling other people, "ruin a good thing for myself"? If its good, I'd like to shout it from the rooftops, we can all enjoy it together.

      It just feels like you need others to buy it to have any value… surely that is not the case, right? I would personally not be able to sleep at night if that would be the case.

      The BTC trading volume over the last 24 hours is more than $19 billion USD, do you think the Ozb community can make even tiny ripple in that?

      The purpose of my posts is for education, hopefully, I can open some people's mind up, be that spark for them to do more research. I'm not encouraging anyone to buy anything, I'm not giving financial advice, just be a little open minded and challenge the negative narrative around crypto and critically think. A lot of the criticisms of crypto, applies to other investments which are more "accepted" today.

      • misu p on 13/04/2023 - 09:00
        +4

        Every little "push" helps right? Every little post on a forum like this… every little "look at it…. it is good right?" pushes it. Look it is worth more now… you better get in soon….

        The guy that has a "system" to win bets does not really publishes it, right? He keeps quiet and enjoys the ride.

        "Not giving financial advice" - are you really using that old line? Are you sure you do not have a Youtube channel? Search maybe you have one without knowing…

        So you basically do this out of the goodness of your heart… to help people with knowledge… so altruistic of you mate… You are probably not even honest with yourself… someplace deep inside you know somebody else needs to buy when you sell. New people need to start buying it otherwise the value will never go up. This is you trying to get new people in… can you just admit that?

        • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 09:10
          +3

          someplace deep inside you know somebody else needs to buy when you sell.

          There's nothing "deep inside" about that, that's top of mind. You just described a market, which applies to commodities, shares, property and other assets. Are you saying a basic market mechanism is bad? Someone needs to sell for someone to buy an asset, this has existed since the beginning of time.

          Every little "push" helps right? Every little post on a forum like this… every little "look at it…. it is good right?" pushes it. Look it is worth more now… you better get in soon….

          There's zero push lol. There are currently 2,190 users and 6,771 guests online. Let's say 10000 people for simple maths, if everyone bought $100, that's only $1,000,000, its not even going to move the market one little bit lmao.

          • misu p on 13/04/2023 - 10:09
            -1

            @techlead: There is obvious push, why do you keep talking about it?… all you need to convince less than 10 people…that is all… if everybody that holds crypto convinces 10 people that is enough… This is what you are doing right now, trying to convince a few people. You do not need to move the market by yourself… just talk about it so a few people buy it.

            Crypto is not the share market… the value of stock (or at least should) depends on the value of the underlying company. The value of an house depends on how much rent you can get. The house falls down the value is down.

            Crypto is not that… it just depends on people wanting it… you are manufacturing a want for it now. "look it goes up… you should be making money on it". You just need to convince a few people… that is all.

            • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 10:27
              +1

              @misu p:

              The value of an house depends on how much rent you can get. The house falls down the value is down.

              You are describing the fundamental component of the housing market, which I'm all for. Property prices nowadays have gone way above fundamental value, this extra froth on top is what I call the gambling/speculation component, that part should be abolished. Property is for shelter, not for speculation.

              Crypto is not that

              Crypto is based on utility and trust in its network. This is very important for residents of oppressive regimes which may also have unstable fiat currencies.

              • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 01:31
                +1

                @techlead:

                This is very important for residents of oppressive regimes which may also have unstable fiat currencies.

                There’s definitely been a fiat currency every decade or so less stable than bitcoin.

                Oppressive regimes love it for funneling their countries wealth into their offshore wallets though, great exit plans for them! They can also use it to track their citizens spending, unlike cash…..

          • StalkingIbis on 13/04/2023 - 11:00

            @techlead: but if those 1000 people find 1000 more people, and those 1000 people each find another 1000 people…..oh wait…

            /\
            /_\

  • aelix on 13/04/2023 - 08:47

    Bitcoin (and crypto generally) is an entirely speculative asset that wastes massive amounts of energy in its 'production' and creates nothing of value to society. If regulation properly accounted for negative externalities, crypto as a speculative asset (rather than a value transfer technology) would not be allowed to exist as there would be a big fat zero in the 'positives' column.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/business/bitcoin-mining-e…

  • ECE on 13/04/2023 - 08:49
    +1

    Dont get too excited.It will fall down again. Crypto is a volatile currency 🤣

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:57
      +1

      We all know that. No one is saying it wouldn't fall, but the trend for Bitcoin is up.

      Remember this song? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PXU0thDHCU I'm still waiting for $1000 BTC lol.

      • lostgoat on 13/04/2023 - 09:30
        +1

        I knew this shit would happen . The crypto Dude was kidnapped torturing him trying to get his keys . Pulled out all of his teeth . Govt official gave info to get the target . That is why most in this game with the goodies are silent ghosts, https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/government-worker-accuse…

        • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 09:35
          -1

          lmao, I have no idea what your comment is about and how that article is related to crypto.

          • lostgoat on 13/04/2023 - 10:55
            +1

            @techlead: The guy was tortured . Targetted by govt info . Trying to steal his BTC .
            That is how its related a BTC holder ( one of the big boys )
            I know its too complicated for you to figure out hehe :)

  • pook1e341 on 13/04/2023 - 09:57
    +3

    I'm curious as to why there is so much latent and not-so-latent hatred directed towards cryptocurrency. It's at least something interesting to consider?

    • whatgift on 13/04/2023 - 19:03
      +1

      I think it’s more to do with the people spruiking it that gets people going.

    • modiika on 17/04/2023 - 17:21
      -1

      Yes it was interesting to consider a decade ago. A decade on, its nothing but speculative investment and scams.

      It's only a year or two younger than the iPhone. Which actually did revolutionise the world. It's not new technology, its not useful in the way presented. @techlead can talk about it being a decentralised currency but it cant be a currency when its a speculative investment. That's ignoring all the inherent technical issues in bitcoin which would prevent it specifically from ever working as a meaningful global currency. It would struggle to be a meaningfully successful currency on a major city level. And all of it is designed to solve a problem, that the vast majority of individuals in the developed world are not concerned about it and that is solved in the third world by relying on the currency of a major developed country.

  • SBOB on 13/04/2023 - 10:07
    +8

    sold it over the last few days at an average price of around $30100 USD per BTC because I want to purchase a property to live in soon

    Seems crazy you'd sell an undervalued asset, destined to reach (based on your post) easily 3-6x this value, to buy a property.

    With such likely guaranteed future returns, you're effectively giving up, what? 10 million $ or so in pretty sure thing future returns.

    You'd think you would borrow against your asset holdings, aka rektrading advice

    That's some definite 'i don't believe in btc future value' kind of behaviour :)

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 10:23
      +1

      Seems crazy you'd sell an undervalued asset, destined to reach (based on your post) easily 3-6x this value, to buy a property.

      As I mentioned before, I distinguish the difference between buying a property to live in and investing in property. I'm a big proponent of the former, not the latter. I see value in owning my own place of residence. I see it as a liability rather than an asset though. With the RBA pausing interest rate rises, potential inflection point, property market may get hot again, I just want to get a place and be done with the property market, then I don't need to participate in this craziness for the rest of my life.

      I've only taken around $2.5 mil AUD out, the vast majority of my wealth remains in crypto.

      You'd think you would borrow against your asset holdings, aka rektrading advice

      Lesson I learnt is that crypto is too volatile to borrow against.

      That's some definite 'i don't believe in btc future value' kind of behaviour

      I'm not a Bitcoin nor Crypto maximalist, I don't believe they are silver bullets nor going to solve all the world's problems. They have their place though.

  • Fuego on 13/04/2023 - 10:09
    +1

    Crypto isn't real.

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 10:23
      +1

      What is "real"?

      • nobro25 on 13/04/2023 - 11:04

        What is the matrix?

  • Wasabi Ninja on 13/04/2023 - 10:30

    Hilarious 😆

  • StalkingIbis on 13/04/2023 - 10:51
    +1

    Hahaha hes back!

    How quickly the opinion changes once it goes up a tiny bit.

  • KaTst3R on 13/04/2023 - 11:05
    +1

    My philosophy is when i make money, I STFU.

    • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 12:52
      +1

      Why? I don't like to go up a ladder and then pull it up behind me.

      Its better to help others.

      • JumperC on 13/04/2023 - 23:01
        -1

        This is more like selling people a ladder made of cardboard. Only the cardboard ladder has some utility when you burn it to keep warm.

        Bitcoin has a negative intrinsic value. It costs inordinate amounts to keep the Ponzi scheme going.

        Lots of people make money from Ponzi schemes, doesn’t make them good investments.

        People have kept Ponzi schemes running for decades, eventually someone is left holding the bag, but every new sucker you find pushes that day out a little further. Bitcoin so far can always find another sucker, it’s why these posts proliferate. It only has any value at all if you can find someone to buy it. Investments that aren’t obvious scams have some kind of ability to be useful and produce and income beyond capital gains. Capital gains of actual investments are based on people’s future belief (or actual evidence) in the ability to produce future income. Bitcoin doesn’t produce anything but waste heat. There’s infinite crypto currencies, it’s the very definition of infinite supply in a market where intrinsic demand is zero.

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