Bitcoin over $30k USD again, proving naysayers wrong once again

techlead on 12/04/2023 - 11:47
Last edited 16/04/2023 - 16:51

Bitcoin has penetrated the $30k USD and appears to be holding, looking at the charts, it looks like the beginning of another bull market which can take its price to $100k, $200k and beyond. Goes without saying, but still this is my own opinion only, not financial advice. I'm just opining on the potential future price of BTC, it may or may not eventuate, I don't have control over the price of BTC. Do not rely on my posts and comments, its for educational/entertainment/lively debating purposes only.

I look at other investment classes, shares, bonds, property, its all doom and gloom. This is why I've decided against buying an investment property, I just do get where the attraction is from. I'm investment vehicle agnostic, I just want the best vehicle to make the most returns. Of course risk is very hard set, and some investment vehicles are much much more susceptible to regulation and other shocks. Take the property market for example, there is a range of regulation changes, which governments can implement which will cause it to break, look at China as a very good example, a rule change reining in how much debt developers can take on, rippled through the market and broke it.

Cryptocurrencies are not immune, however they are much much more resilient to these regulation changes. Of course, it will be affected by it if governments attempt to ban it or otherwise restrict it.

I find it very funny reading through https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/, which shows a collection of what naysayers have said throughout the years and Bitcoin has proven them all wrong. Take a look at this from Dan Pena, he said this when Bitcoin dropped from $6k to $3k and he was doing a little victory rant, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX21rnDV-oo. Now Bitcoin has proven him wrong, and he has egg all over his face. Its so funny, everything he said about Bitcoin turned out to be wrong.

Personally, I thought Bitcoin was a scam from 2009 to 2013. I knew about its existence shortly after it was created and I read and understood the whitepaper, but didn't believe it would work. This changed in 2013, happy to be proven wrong and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have allowed me to accumulate a nice small fortune. I've done calculations on the alternatives, if I didn't buy Bitcoin and other cryptos from 2013, eg purchased an investment property, purchased apple shares etc, and none could have allowed me to amass my net wealth today. So with 20/20 hindsight, I'm glad I made the right decision back in 2013.

Has your perception about cryptocurrency changed over the years?

Update - adding in some common points people put in the comments.

Crypto is a zero sum game. For you to make money, someone needs to lose money.

This is not true, shares and property are not zero sum games, hence crypto which is another asset just like shares and property is not a zero sum game.
Here's a recent trade I did. I purchased 20.82 BTC late 2022 at $16688 USD per BTC, I sold it over the last few days at an average price of around $30100 USD per BTC because I want to purchase a property to live in soon.

In this scenario, who lost money?
1. The people who sold it to me late 2022
2. me or
3. the people who bought it off me a few days ago. BTC is $30184 USD at the time of writing.

Bitcoin is based on "thin air", its not backed by anything.

Bitcoin was created in the aftermath of the GFC, which is either forgotten or just not experienced by people. Bitcoin's value is based on its decentralised, censorship resistant and permissionless network, which is a god send for people in oppressive regimes with unstable fiat currencies. It is also based on trust, through its open sourced code.

Much of our economy is based on trust without the transparency. We trust that our RBA gives us accurate data on how much money it conjures up from "thin air". Unlike Bitcoin, we can't easily verify it, how do we know they haven't printed a trillion AUD?

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

      • SBOB on 12/04/2023 - 12:34
        +24

        Talking about it, and shilling it/large price increase predictions while completely ignoring high risk assset class downside risks….

        Same same…but different

        All good you made 10s of millions in crypto. Conrgats.
        You'd think that would be enough for you to just quitely sit in the corner/fancy house and count your $ rather than trying to continue to talk it up.

      • djkelly69 on 12/04/2023 - 12:44
        +2

        Of course people with shares or property or crypto or whatever can talk about why they think people should invest in their preferred asset class.

        However I don't think they would/should be allowed to post that everyone should be investing in WBC or TLS or into this specific unit development in Melbourne, etc, because it is the best and everything else is 'all doom and gloom', which is essentially what you are doing.

        There is one dominant player in the crypto game (and a much, much smaller playing field) so people investing in crypto are much more likely to invest in the specific one that you have a vested interest in increasing the price.

        • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 12:47
          -6

          Point to the part in my original post where I said people should be investing in BTC.

          • djkelly69 on 12/04/2023 - 12:52
            +21

            @techlead: Just going to leave the following thread titles, all made by you, here:

            Cryptocurrencies - Your Key to Financial Freedom AMA
            Banking System Melting down While Bitcoin Melts up
            Bitcoin over $30k USD again, proving naysayers wrong once again

            I guess people can work out for themselves what the point of your posts have been.

    • ProlapsedHeinous on 14/04/2023 - 18:36

      Just scroll on instead of whining about it.

  • bobbified on 12/04/2023 - 12:38
    +53

    It's funny because "bitcoiners" (or 'crypto' people) all get strangely silent when price dives take place. And then as soon as something a little "positive" happens, they all come out from their hiding places and start spruiking this shit about how good crypto is.

    Investment involves looking at both positives and negatives to get a balanced risk assessment - not just focussing on the positives only.

      • bobbified on 12/04/2023 - 12:44
        +1

        Buy low sell high, so I'm sure this also applies to other investment classes like shares and property.

        You're definitely right - this is the basics of all investments and most people know this. But knowing how low to buy and how high to sell is what will make or break an investor.

        • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 12:48

          But knowing how low to buy and how high to sell is what will make or break an investor.

          That's the trillion dollar question, isn't it?

          If I knew, I'd be an USD trillionaire.

          • bobbified on 12/04/2023 - 12:50
            +1

            @techlead:

            That's the trillion dollar question, isn't it?

            This is the problem - so many amateur crypto investors (not talking about yourself) only listen to the "positive spruiking" and seem to have this fantasy view that the prices will just continue to go up and up. The possibility of things taking a huge dive (or even getting completely wiped out) doesn't even register in their mind.

            • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 12:56
              +3

              @bobbified:

              This is the problem - so many crypto investors (not talking about yourself) seem to expect that the prices will just continue to go up and up and the possibility of things taking a huge dive (or even getting completely wiped out) doesn't even register in their mind.

              I actually disagree with this. I think crypto investors know about the roller coaster, they have to, the media has been harping on about how much it fell for years whenever a crash happens. I think most crypto investors know about the potential for crashes and are fully aware of it.

              What you have described, seem to be more for property investors and who can blame them. People my age, have not seen interest rate rise in their entire investing career. Talking to my property investing friends, who said interest rates will not go up and property prices will keep going up, this was in the middle of the covid boom and I was saying, interest rates WILL go up and WILL go up very hard, don't believe the RBA, there's ZERO (channeling Dan Pena here) ZERO chance that RBA will first increase interest rates in 2024. ZERO chance. Now they complain about how much interest rates have gone up lmao.

      • xrayed giraffe on 13/04/2023 - 12:11
        +2

        "Researching"
        What were you researching to help make your decisions about buying/ selling BTC?

        • Protractor on 26/04/2023 - 09:56

          Whether he could collect enough containers off the roadside to go 'halvsie's with his mates to grab some spindooly ?

          https://tinyurl.com/techleadstash

          *This one's trending. 106 have already sold.

    • whatwasherproblem on 12/04/2023 - 16:45
      +3

      It's funny because "bitcoiners" (or 'crypto' people) all get strangely silent when price dives take place.

      Not on /biz/ they don't. The sentiment in that place gets downright suicidal every time the BTC price crashes. It's great fun to watch.

    • Darude Sandstorm on 13/04/2023 - 21:57

      exact same with stock investors, youtubes dead for it

    • MindGrenadius on 14/04/2023 - 08:59

      The inverse of this is also true, everyone that spent years saying "Bitcoin is just a ponzi/scam!" has nothing to say when it goes up 5000% but they'll turn up when it drops 60% (which is still 10x where it was previously)

      I bought @ $300 in 2013 and had some dude that knew I bought some then try and shit on me when it "crashed" from $20K to $10K.

  • lostgoat on 12/04/2023 - 12:46
    +2

    Remember when oil all went negative in 2020 ?
    The boys are looking for another target to wipe anyone without market sense of stop loss collateral again .

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:19
      +2

      Oil went negative in very specific markets and for a very very brief period of time. It is due to the storage costs of oil.

  • Bid Sniper on 12/04/2023 - 12:48
    +2

    How many cycles of plankton rushing in to be scooped up by whales until they realize its all a scam.

    • Protractor on 26/04/2023 - 09:57

      The more the merrier. Whales need to eat.

  • orangecarpet-22 on 12/04/2023 - 13:00
    +3

    This guy gets it. Everything else trends to 0 in BTC terms. It's also the only instrument of wealth you can truly hold free from confiscation and censorship. Once you understand it, it is obviously the base money of the future. Just holding it will reward you well. You can accelerate this as OP has by riding cycles. Well done OP.

    Surely the people who have been saying the same thing since 2013 have no weight to their argument? They've missed out on 10,000% gains.

    • ProlapsedHeinous on 14/04/2023 - 18:38

      They're already all in on hating it, so everytime they are reminded they still have to go to work tomorrow its a bit soul crushing for them.

  • Oofy Doofy on 12/04/2023 - 13:04
    +2

    I prefer ETH over BTC due to proof-of-stake, BTC is too energy inefficient. Although, in saying this, IIRC, if scaled up to the current systems we use, it would be more energy efficient. It's just that PoS is much more energy efficient again.

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:09
      +1

      Same, in my hodl portfolio, I hold more ETH than BTC now. This is also because I sold a lot of BTC for a property purchase soon.

  • localhost on 12/04/2023 - 13:06

    I've purchased 50 BTC sometimes 2012. Do you think it's a good time to sell or hold until the price goes up to $100k?

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:10
      +1

      I'm not here to give financial advice. You should ask this question with a licensed financial advisor.

      Well done, I still thought BTC was a scam in 2012.

      • dcash on 14/04/2023 - 09:33
        +1

        It is.

        • techlead on 14/04/2023 - 09:53

          I don't think that anymore.

          If you think Bitcoin is a scam, elaborate on it, why is it a scam? Who is scamming you?

    • Oofy Doofy on 12/04/2023 - 13:12

      Why are you asking a crystal ball gazing question? Nobody knows what will happen. Too many variables.

      • techlead on 10/01/2024 - 11:57

        No one has a crystal ball, but nearly a year on, I like what has happened over the past year.

    • supersabroso on 13/04/2023 - 01:10

      Sheesh, someone's rich, what are you doing here on OzBargain??? The time to sell was both times at $70k USD, if you want to sell, sell half now and hold the other half until it hits $100k.

    • RefusdClassification on 13/04/2023 - 06:56
      +1

      That worked out magnificently for you. You held you through all and boom and bust cycles, and now you have 2.2 million, enough for a detacted house in eastern Sydney.

      The really smart people are selling high and rebuying during dips, but you have little to no forewarning before a cryptocurrency crash. 7 days from now, bitcoin may be worth $50,000 AU or $20,000 AU. Crytocurrency investors,in general, are very easily spooked.

  • pegaxs on 12/04/2023 - 13:11
    +12

    Ponzi scheme… "Working as intended"… Until the next round of investors gets spooked and it falls like a stone… All the FOMO's getting in makes for a great ride.

    I bought a shitload of XRP at 40¢ and jumped out at 85¢ all because some spooked banking bullshit in the US.

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:18
      -2

      Please explain how Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme.

      • pegaxs on 12/04/2023 - 13:31
        +26

        It is the very textbook definition of a Ponzi scheme.

        Naive, newer investors pile money into a scheme that promises unrealistic returns. Their money is used to pay the older investors who start taking their money out because the returns are slowing down. People at the bottom are told to wait for these great returns that never come. Get spooked and try to clamour back any semblance of their savings and the scheme collapses because there is no new money coming in to cover these "amazing gains"

        Bitcoin is thin air. You are buying thin air based on a perceived value that isn't there in the hope that a lot of other idiots have a higher perceived value in so much that they are willing to put in MORE money than you already have…

        If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck… Chances are, it's a duck.

        • idjces on 12/04/2023 - 20:09
          -1

          Naive, newer investors pile money into a scheme that promises unrealistic returns. Their money is used to pay the older investors who start taking their money out because the returns are slowing down. People at the bottom are told to wait for these great returns that never come. Get spooked and try to clamour back any semblance of their savings and the scheme collapses because there is no new money coming in to cover these "amazing gains"

          You've basically also described every superannuation/retirement scheme designed with a reliance on an ever expanding working class to prop it up - the exact opposite to the way that demographics have been trending

          • DashCam AKA Rolts on 12/04/2023 - 20:36
            +12

            @idjces:

            You've basically also described every superannuation/retirement scheme designed with a reliance on an ever expanding working class to prop it up

            Tell me you've never read a Superannuation Investment document without saying so.

            • idjces on 12/04/2023 - 21:37

              @DashCam AKA Rolts: yes very funny. Who do you think is the buyer for your share/bond sale, when you redeem said investment

              • DashCam AKA Rolts on 12/04/2023 - 23:03
                +9

                @idjces: Superannuants rely on the income stream from interest on bonds/cash deposits, and dividends from stocks/shares, or rent from IPs, not from the whole sale selling off of the assets.

                Tell me again you've never read a Superannuation Investment document without saying so.

                • idjces on 13/04/2023 - 08:16

                  @DashCam AKA Rolts:

                  Superannuants rely on the income stream from interest on bonds/cash deposits, and dividends from stocks/shares, or rent from IPs, not from the whole sale selling off of the assets.

                  Assuming like you propose, that you are relying on such an incredibly small withdrawal rate that an individual never need to sell 'assets', then have you followed the flow of cash to understand who exactly is paying the interest/dividends/rent?

                  Or are you just relying on the magical black box of numbers within a chart

                  • DashCam AKA Rolts on 13/04/2023 - 18:40

                    @idjces:

                    then have you followed the flow of cash to understand who exactly is paying the interest/dividends/rent?

                    Or are you just relying on the magical black box of numbers within a chart

                    So, on that basis, do you check the supply chain for everything you buy/consume?

                • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:18
                  +2

                  @DashCam AKA Rolts: The superannuation scheme definitely boosted demand for investments when it was first implemented, but I wouldn't say its a Ponzi scheme because they do actually invest in assets.

                  This is very different to Charles Ponzi's scheme which was just moving money around, he actually never invested in shares or other investments.

                  Bitcoin does not have all the elements of a Ponzi scheme, saying old investors benefit the most is akin to saying early investors of Apple, Google and Amazon and those who bought property in the 1990s or earlier benefit the most, therefore these are all Ponzi schemes, which isn't the case.

                  Ponzi schemes are not unique to the crypto industry, actual confirmed Ponzi schemes in the crypto space include Bitconnect and unconfirmed, Celsius and FTX.

          • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 02:23

            @idjces:

            You've basically also described every superannuation/retirement scheme designed with a reliance on an ever expanding working class to prop it up - the exact opposite to the way that demographics have been trending

            They stopped signing people up to defined benefit schemes decades ago.

            Super and thus Shares (mostly) represent companies that produce products (or have physical assets) that means both income from holding the share, as well as a sale value based on expected future products.

            The difference between bitcoin and most shares is bitcoin produces no product while you hold it and it’s never expected to. If it was a company it’s share price would be negative, it has running costs but produces nothing. Some people don’t get that, so the price can irrationally go up, causing more people to behave irrationally, until they don’t. Rinse, repeat.

            If there’s no increased working class that also bodes poorly for ‘assets’ like bitcoin which rely on more and more people having excess capital to buy from the last person who bought. Property can also theoretically go backwards in a shrinking population (as is currently in some countries, and eventually worldwide). But long term unlikely in countries with large immigration, for the foreseeable future ate least.

            You could just as easily fork bitcoin and trade all shares of a company (say, Apple) for the new coin, and you’d have all the ‘utility’ of bitcoin but it would be backed by a company producing something of value. But then it would be obvious what the coins potential value is. With bitcoin it’s the same except then the ‘company’ is an idea with no intrinsic value, no property and no products.

        • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:14
          +2

          You have flawed understand of a Ponzi scheme.

          For a Ponzi scheme to exist, there needs to be centralized figure or entity which gives the money from newer investors to older ones. Bitcoin's price is market driven, no one person/entity controls the price, you can sell at any time on a range of exchanges.

          Their money is used to pay the older investors who start taking their money out because the returns are slowing down. People at the bottom are told to wait for these great returns that never come.

          You just described the greater fool theory, which also applies to shares and property. https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/greater-fool-th… All my property investing friends who bought in 2022 are in the red, their solution? Ride it out, hodl, sound familiar?

          Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme, but here are some in the crypto industry which were. Bitconnect, read up it, it was a big Ponzi scheme in the last cycle, notice how it has a centralised entity which controlled the price of its token, BCC, its not really market driven because there are limited places where you can trade it and they control a large part of the supply. Celsius is another, although this is not confirmed, let's see how the bankruptcy goes.

          Bitcoin is thin air. You are buying thin air based on a perceived value that isn't there in the hope that a lot of other idiots have a higher perceived value in so much that they are willing to put in MORE money than you already have…

          Again greater fool theory, which also applies to property and shares.

          • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 00:00

            @techlead: Bitcoin, decentralized Ponzi scheme. Lol making up what a Ponzi scheme actually is based on a definition most historically regarded Ponzi schemes wouldn’t have met. You might as well say it wasn’t run by Charles Ponzi so it can’t be. The only difference is it’s public and obvious to anyone with a basic financial understanding that it is. It’s not secretly a Ponzi scheme, it publicly is.

            ‘Greater fool theory’ lol they difference with property is that it typically has some utility value. Shares represent a potential to provide a good or service or other physical property.

            If you had a cryptocurrency that was actually backed by something of value (IP, property etc) then that would be the same. But Bitcoin has zero utility value, it in fact costs money just to keep the system running. You rely solely on having someone willing to buy it for you, or it doesn’t matter what it last sold for, and the only reason to buy it is a belief it will go up. But there’s reasons to buy property other than a belief it will go up, as you proved buying one instead of keeping you money in bitcoin and renting.

            The best thing about bitcoin is if someone beats you with a crowbar until you transfer it to their friend overseas, you have zero chance of getting it back.

            No one buys a property, keeps it the same, and plans to sell it in a year. That’s never been a good idea and no one has ever said it is, holding it would be the plan even if it went up. Individual properties have gone up though, because outperformance is possible.

            Selling bitcoin is largely dependent on exchanges being allowed to remain legal, most of bitcoin’s theoretical value comes from the legitimization of exchanging it back into fist currencies. That’s something dependent on the whims of not that many people. You might be able to keep your bitcoins until the heat death of the universe, but their sole utility exists only when you can exchange them for a currency you can pay taxes in.

          • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 02:31
            +1

            @techlead:

            For a Ponzi scheme to exist, there needs to be centralized figure or entity

            https://youtu.be/uuVh36vQkSI

            Thanks for the laugh.

  • payless69 on 12/04/2023 - 13:11
    +2

    Something for all neggers:

    some call it the Anal effect?

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:12

      Never heard of this, please explain.

      • payless69 on 12/04/2023 - 13:57

        google it, the neggers throw tantrums

        • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:57
          +1

          I did, nothing seemed relevant, it was mostly about the first word lmao.

          • payless69 on 13/04/2023 - 01:47

            @techlead: Google is now such a monster with algorithm to please its home state.
            Meanwhile the A$ is in free fall!

            • techlead on 13/04/2023 - 08:23
              +1

              @payless69: The AUD is in free fall because of the idiotic RBA decision to hold interest rates. This makes AUD less attractive than other fiat currencies, ceteris paribus.

              The US are expected to raise rates, same as UK and NZ already hiked 50 basis points to 5.25%. Our cash rate to be over 5% at the moment. The RBA is stretched at both ends, how to tame inflation, while not breaking the banks. The issue is, there are many tools to help the banks, eg extending liquidity to them by guaranteeing their bonds at face value like in the US, essentially socializing all their losses in the bond market, while there's only one tool to tackle inflation, hike interest rates.

              Sooner or latter, most likely sooner, something is going to break. Real income is falling due to high inflation, RBA is going to be forced to increase rates just like before.

              • payless69 on 13/04/2023 - 10:07

                @techlead: yeah, some talk about 0.5% at the next meeting!

              • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 00:13

                @techlead: Are you even in Australia? The banks in Australia have zero to do with the RBA pausing rates, the banks in Australia have been profiting from the rates being raised. Unlike the US most mortgages are variable, in the US they’re typically fixed for 30 years, so you’re confusing the reality in each county. The Fed is the one stretched at both ends because inflation in the US is much higher, but raising rates hurts their banks but does much less to dampen consumer spending, so it’s much less effective at taming inflation in the US.

                There’s lots of tools to tackle inflation, just not much the RBA can do other than raise rates. The RBA on the other hand is going to be aided by fixed mortgages transferring to variable given many people fixed at low rates during the pandemic and unlike the US fixed rates here are typically 2 years, so they’ll get the assistance of the previous rate rises hitting over the next 12-24 months, meaning there’s a danger they’ve already raised too much and will need to start cutting.

                The AUD vs USD is still where it was in December, so not exactly sure where you’re getting ‘free fall’ given they’ve also only held rates at one meeting and it’s unchanged since then.

  • dtc on 12/04/2023 - 13:20

    Reminds me of the Black Knight. Sure I've lost a hand and a leg, but I've proven you all wrong because I can still hop around!

    Its like saying all those people who bought afterpay at $160 were correct, because after it dropped to $94 it went back up to $126. Winners!

    For every share (well, apart from a few) there are people who bought it at a lower price than it currently is and can crow about what great investors they are/the share is. But that doesnt mean its a great investment for everyone or even anyone else. Same with BTC. Just because its going up doesnt make it a great investment, doesnt say its a valid product. It could be hype, could just be people investing because other people are investing (a great way to make money, you dont even have to know what you are buying if other people are happy to pay more), could be a long term worthwhile product. Whether or not BTC fits into your investment structure depends on what kind of investor you are.

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:23

      Its like saying all those people who bought afterpay at $160 were correct, because after it dropped to $94 it went back up to $126. Winners!

      Here's another scenario, property prices has been dropping for 10 months, it went up in March 2023 breaking that streak. Winners!

      What you just said applies to every other investment class, not sure what your point is.

      Whether or not BTC fits into your investment structure depends on what kind of investor you are.

      Change BTC to shares, bonds, property and it still holds. That's pretty obvious.

      • dtc on 12/04/2023 - 19:53
        +3

        The point is that crowing about BTC increasing in price has nothing to do with its actual value. It just means it’s increasing price. Which means nothing, plenty of scams increase in price as well

      • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 00:20
        -1

        If you bought most property (or most index ETFs) 2 years ago you’d still be up though, while you’d be down almost 50% on bitcoin over that period. You can cherry pick the one sustained drop property has had in the last 10 years (and then very specific property, because property doesn’t all go in one direction) and sure. Investments can go down, but in that 10 months of ‘going down’ in capital value it’s still had the thing that bitcoin will never have, an actual utility value, somewhere to live or rent out. Something missing for your view of the world. Things are worth $ because people think they’ll be useful for something. There’s a reason why most other assets are useful other than just potentially selling them for more to the next sucker.

  • coffeeinmyveins on 12/04/2023 - 13:35
    +17

    I was waiting for a post like this. Every time it rebounds, you and rektrading come out of the woodwork.

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:46
      -3

      I have a bit more time on my hands now. So you will generally see me post more here when prices are going up. I'm too busy buying the researching during the bear market.

      • Papa Huggies on 13/04/2023 - 10:04
        +15

        "Too busy buying the researching"

        Yeah mate OK no one is believing that shit.

  • treekangagaroo on 12/04/2023 - 13:35
    +15

    Let me guess it - You have invested and now you want others to invest to pump it up, so you can sell at the top of the market and make your gains ?

    Greater fool theory !

    https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/greater-fool-th…

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:44
      +1

      Read the update to my post, I've been investing since 2013, but recently sold some, so I can buy a house.

      Greater fool theory

      This applies to shares and property as well, what's the problem? Don't be the fool lol.

      This is an extract from the article you linked lmao.

      The performance of the U.S. real estate market over the last several decades presents another example of the risk-reward dynamics of the greater fool approach. Average inflation-adjusted U.S. housing prices nearly doubled from 1995 through 2005, according to the Federal Reserve. Homebuyers relying on the greater fool theory likely enjoyed strong returns if they purchased and sold at nearly any time during that period. There were no repercussions for the lack of time and energy spent understanding the fundamentals and intricacies of the real estate market.

      • treekangagaroo on 12/04/2023 - 15:28
        +7

        "This applies to shares and property as well, what's the problem?"

        Difference is they are backed by fundamentals at least to some degree !!! Don't take it personally .I was not trying to attack you just said some reality

        If you start looking at life like this why would you even trust govt issued money ?

      • Antikythera on 13/04/2023 - 00:40
        +7

        why not rent?

        as you say, property is a much worse investment than bitcoin.

      • xrayed giraffe on 13/04/2023 - 12:15
        +5

        Why are you selling to buy a house?
        Why don't you just pay directly with BTC?

  • deme on 12/04/2023 - 13:38
    +4

    This is not true, shares and property are not zero sum games, hence crypto which is another asset just like shares and property is not a zero sum game.

    This is not the win you think it is.

    Cash itself is not a zero-sum game. A zero-sum game is a situation where one participant's gain or loss is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of other participants. In other words, the total amount of wealth does not change, it is just redistributed among the players.

    While it is true that the transfer of cash between individuals or entities in a transaction can be considered a redistribution of wealth, cash itself is not a zero-sum game because the overall economy can grow, leading to wealth creation. When businesses and individuals invest, produce goods, and provide services, they contribute to the growth of the economy, which can lead to an increase in wealth and purchasing power.

    Additionally, central banks can create or destroy money through monetary policy, which can impact the overall money supply in the economy. This means that the total amount of cash in circulation is not fixed and can change over time.

    It is essential to understand that cash transactions or exchanges might have elements of zero-sum dynamics, but cash as a concept in a growing economy is not inherently a zero-sum game, as there is potential for overall wealth creation and growth.

    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:43
      +1

      This is not the win you think it is.

      Its a win in demonstrating that the crypto spot market is not a zero sum game. Even it is, not sure what the issue is. Shares option is a zero sum game, so what?

      There are winners and losers in every aspect of our economy, what's the issue here?

      • deme on 12/04/2023 - 13:46
        +1

        Shares option is a zero sum game

        Good work you managed to find one that you didn't say before.

        what's the issue here?

        You are trying to suggest that Bitcoin is some magic money machine and that you've proven it.

        How about you start talking about the risks in "investing" in shitcoins?

        • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 13:55
          +2

          You are trying to suggest that Bitcoin is some magic money machine and that you've proven it.

          I've said no such thing. Bitcoin is a volatile asset that derives most of its value from its decentralised, censorship resistant and permissionless network. As is the case with any emerging asset and industry, the price discovery process is going to be messy, which means it will be volatile. Looking at Bitcoin's volatility over the years, it has come down alot. Its definitely not magic money. Its as magic money as gains from investing in property and/or shares.

          How about you start talking about the risks in "investing" in shitcoins?

          Read my AMA, https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/613895. I dedicated a section on my mistakes and other pitfalls. There are of course risks like in any kind of investment.

          • deme on 12/04/2023 - 14:35

            @techlead: Can you give people a feel for the amount of risk compared to index funds, blue chip stocks, cash, pokies?

            • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 14:44
              +1

              @deme: On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 is least risk and 10 is most risk, this is how I would rate them.

              1 Cash (there's risk due to inflation and FX risk if denominated in another currency)
              4 Index funds
              5 Blue chip stocks
              7 Bitcoin
              10 Pokies/lottery

              • deme on 12/04/2023 - 14:50

                @techlead: Over 15 years what do you expect the annualised loss to be for Index Funds and Bitcoin in terms of initial capital?

                Or how much safer is Bitcoin vs pokies?

                • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 15:01
                  +2

                  @deme: Bitcoin hasn't been around for 15 years.

                  I don't have an expectation number figure because I have a long term view. You are asking about the draw down of loss, right? What's your expectation of the max draw down for property and what happens when the max draw down is hit? I think people try to hang on as long as they can, until forced to sell by the bank.

                  The draw down for my initial 2BTC purchase for $1600USD total was 50-60% within a few months. I didn't break even until 2014, then after 2014 it was all profits from there, you don't need me to tell you about the Bitcoin price since 2014, you can see that yourself.

                  So in terms of draw down of initial capital, I've experienced none after 2014 for my 2BTC purchase.

                  For my BTC purchases in 2022, there is a draw down, haven't done the calculations on how much, but overall, I'm green for sure.

              • SBOB on 12/04/2023 - 15:08

                @techlead:

                4 Index funds
                5 Blue chip stocks
                7 Bitcoin

                Clearly working on what? Some kind of exponential or logarithmic scale, as it's sure not a linear comparison in terms of risk between regulated share trade market and unrelated crypto market if you're using those numbers.

                • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 15:10
                  +2

                  @SBOB: You don't know that Debit Suisse, sorry, Credit Suisse and SVB are "regulated" entities? You are obviously putting too much faith in the regulators.

                  The GFC happened due to a regulated section falling over. Regulation is not the magic bullet you think it is.

                  • SBOB on 12/04/2023 - 15:17
                    +3

                    @techlead: Didn't say it was. For someone so well educated on financial markets I find it amazing how unaware of simple risk ratings you are.

                    • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 17:00
                      +1

                      @SBOB: How would you rate it then?

          • lostgoat on 12/04/2023 - 14:38

            @techlead: Can I continue ur AMA pls.
            Have you figured out your crypto coin worth yet ? Not just between 10 mil to 100 mil . Narrow it down tks .
            Maybe you may be able to afford some professional help .

            • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 14:40

              @lostgoat: What kind of professional help do I need?

            • tomclancy on 12/04/2023 - 16:36
              +2

              @lostgoat: I'll have a ballpark crack at it based on my reading of the three ozbargain threads. techlead had ~US$45m worth of BTC at the most recent peak when they did the first AMA. BTC is now less than half of that, but factoring in that techlead has been buying lots more on the way down. 'Buying the dips'. techlead sold a chunk at the recent bottom and paid US$8m CGT so reasonably assume sold US$20m worth - that's nearly all of their holdings though it gives them US$12m cash available. We might reasonably assume they've put it all back in BTC, hence the need for the latest two BTC threads. So to answer you're question, they did have US$45m value, now US$12m value. Both of which are between the 10mil to 100mil comment 😊

              • techlead on 12/04/2023 - 16:59
                +2

                @tomclancy: I don't know the exact figure, however, your maths checks out, its within that ball park range.

                I have around $2.5 mil AUD cash at the moment from selling recently, I'm in the market for a new house. It was a nightmare getting approval for a mortgage, the bank kept asking why not just pay for the house outright?

                I've said this back in 2021 and I will say it again. How the crypto cycles work is that first BTC pumps, BTC dominance spikes to kick off the bull season, then money moves to the majors, then medium cap, then micro caps. Its not going to be alt season until BTC dominance start trending down, unless there's an inflection point.

                • tomclancy on 13/04/2023 - 11:06
                  +3

                  @techlead: I've got to admit techlead, though I don't share the same views on crypto as you (I do hold various crypto for short-term trading), you do put a lot of effort into your responses here and maintain respectfulness. I appreciate that 👍

          • JumperC on 14/04/2023 - 00:28
            +1

            @techlead:

            Bitcoin is a volatile asset that derives most of its value from its decentralised, censorship resistant and permissionless network.

            It derives all of its value by indoctrinating people into believing that crap.

            It’s not unique as a ‘decentralized’ network, it’s network is actually a negative, not a positive as it requires a constant incentive to come from people using it to maintain the very inefficient network. It’s trackable and people get all the permission they need with a lead pipe. It’s an absolute boon to cybercrime, but could be replaced in an instant by one of dozens of other crypto currencies if the mood shifted.

            The volatility has only increased and the pandemic proved once and for all it’s not even the inflation hedge it promised to be, being worth less now than 2 years ago despite inflation higher than most people remember.

      • StalkingIbis on 13/04/2023 - 10:53
        +1

        If i buy a product from a manufacturer, I win, the business wins and its employees win.

        if you buy my crytpo and I make money, I have won and you have lost, unless you sell to another fool and you win and they have lost.

        • Protractor on 26/04/2023 - 10:08

          This is the very model Howard would endorse. Greed and personal wealth, should always dominate the greater good. That's the philosophy of the LNP ever since his tenure.

  • JafferMoney on 12/04/2023 - 13:43
    +4

    LoL

    • whatgift on 13/04/2023 - 18:57
      +3

      I was thinking of replying this exact thing - I couldn’t think of any reason to indulge in this ridiculous post and discussion.

      • bargainhunter168 on 10/01/2024 - 14:35

        It appears your comment did not age well. The market, history and reality since April 2023 has proven you wrong.

  • [Deactivated] on 12/04/2023 - 15:01
    +2

    The problem is it could be double or half the price next week. At least with baccarat or roulette, you find out shortly after you make the bet.

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