Banking System Melting down While Bitcoin Melts up

techlead on 21/03/2023 - 10:40
Last edited 22/03/2023 - 12:51

I think we are starting to see the cryptocurrency market start to decouple from the traditional markets as people see how fragile the banking system is. Fiat currency (USD, AUD, CHF etc) are backed by nothing but trust, once that trust evaporates, like in the case of SVB, Signature Bank and now Credit Suisse, its back to the money printers to bail these institutions out. SVB in particular, bought "good quality" treasury bonds, yet they mistimed the market and the Feb screwed them over by hiking rates so quickly.

Its funny that in 2017, the Credit Suisse CEO said Bitcoin at $7000 was a "bubble" and now Credit Suisse has become Debit Suisse and Bitcoin is worth multiples of $7000.

It is very clear with the strength of Bitcoin recently that many people has now realized fiat currencies are not backed by anything and its worth gets diminished once the printer goes brrrrrrr. I'm very glad I've been aggressively buying my favorite crypto over these last couple of months. The new bull market is nearly upon us and Bitcoin and good quality alts will once again amazing people. As someone who as widely laughed at and ridiculed to daring to say Bitcoin will be $10k+ USD per coin one day back in 2013/2014, I have experienced these cycles before. As Bitcoin blasts through resistance levels on its way upwards, I'm very sure it will be more than $100k and then eventually more than $1 million per BTC.

I'm down to my last $AUD200k cash, rest of my net worth is all in crypto, I will probably stop buying now, just keep it as a buffer. I'm strapped onto this crypto rocket, who else is onboard?

PS: I'm not associated in any way to the YouTube channel called Techlead who famously adds "as a millionaire" to everything he says and allegedly ran a million dollar scam.

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 19:50

      True, crypto is not as regulated as the banks, so you need to learn to self custody. I have not lost anything from the exchange collapses. It was close though, I had a close shave with Celsius and FTX.

      I now have 90% of my holdings on my hardware wallets and the rest on Binance, the biggest exchange at the moment. They have a SAFU fund which has reimbursed investors in the past just like a bail out.

      It comes back to awareness, knowing what you have invested in etc etc. I self custody my crypto, no one can take it from me.

      • I like freestuff on 22/03/2023 - 16:16
        +1

        Sounds like someone could just take your hardware wallet and take it all from you? Random house fire / Knock to your head and you forget where it is or that you even have one.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 16:49

          They can take my hardware wallet, but they wouldn't be able to transact. I can easily restore my wallet to a brand new wallet.

          Same solution to the random house fire.

          Knock to your head is real problem and is the biggest risk, the only way around it is to make sure all your seed phrases are kept in a safe place. A knock to your head is going to be problematic for most other assets too. Including property, look at this real case:

          https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8081641/Bill-Gertos…

          TLDR: The house belonged to someone who died, but the family didn't know it was part of the estate. Some squatter came in, fixed the place up, rented it out, paid all expenses, after 12 years went to court to get the title changed to his name.

          • GrueHunter on 22/03/2023 - 20:23

            @techlead: Yes, those are exactly the same situations…if you've had a serious head injury

            • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 20:40

              @GrueHunter: I guess suddenly dying would also be an issue too? Unexpected get hit by a bus/train/plane/boat?

      • Typical16-bitEnjoyer on 22/03/2023 - 16:44
        -3

        so you need to learn to "self custody".

        "SeLF CuStoDy" is such a cop out scam term. Which quasi investor scam crypto bruh university taught you that term?

    • idjces on 22/03/2023 - 20:32

      Hey look guys we built a system that doesn't rely on banks and putting faith in corruptable individuals

      everyone then proceeds to handover their crypto to banks

  • Bystander on 22/03/2023 - 01:05
    +1

    The way I see it BTC's "value" is derived from the concept of "digital scarcity". And if you look at the small picture, then yes, there is only a finite number of tokens that can be mined.

    But in the bigger picture there can be an infinite number of ledgers with Bitcoin clones which for all intents and purposes are identical. So in that context there's no digital scarcity at all.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 16:53
      -1

      Not just "digital scarcity", the network also has value, I would say even more value. Bitcoin's reliable, censorship resistant and permissionless network holds the most value, it has never been hacked, never went down or otherwise stopped working. There's no KYC, no approval of any kind to transact on this network. No government nor court can confiscate your assets.

      This where the real value is. If you think you don't need this, then you can read about Executive Order 6102 where the president of the free world confiscated everyone's gold with the flick of a pen.

      Bitcoin forks or clones are not the same because they don't have the same community nor the developers who work to improve the network. You can fork the coin, but you can't fork the community nor developers nor the trust people on with the network. This is why Bitcoin cash, Bitcoin ABC, Bitcoin whatever etc etc are not worth as much as the main Bitcoin chain.

      • Bystander on 22/03/2023 - 17:18

        So, by that reasoning I'm assuming that if the community and devs decide for whatever reason to move on and focus their attention and efforts on BTC clone v350 then the "value" moves with them.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 20:27

          Potentially, that would most likely happen. This was demonstrated by ETH.

          You can read the full story here, https://www.gemini.com/cryptopedia/the-dao-hack-makerdao#sec….

          TLDR: Less than 3 months after the launch of ETH, the decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) on the ETH blockchain was hacked and $60 million out of $150 million of investor ETH it held at the time was stolen due to a vulnerability in the DAO's code base (note not the ETH Blockchain itself, its the smart contract of the DAO).

          There are two solutions to this:
          1. Hardfork the ETH blockchain from a time before the hack, thereby invaliding all transactions that occurred after it including the hack itself.
          2. Softfork, blacklist the addresses where the funds went to

          This was very controversial and very divisive issue in the community, in the end, a majority in the community opted for a hard fork. The minority that didn't agree stayed with the main chain which is now called ETH Classic. The main ETH chain is actually a hardfork of the original and is worth way more than the original chain (ETH Classic) because a majority of developers left the main chain to join the hard forked one.

          So back to your point, "if the community and devs decide for whatever reason to move on and focus their attention and efforts on BTC clone v350 then the "value" moves with them.", that is correct, as shown by ETH.

      • thesilverstarman on 22/03/2023 - 17:57

        "No government nor court can confiscate your assets". - utter crap. Just google and see how much has been confiscated by governments and law enforcement. And it is NOT as assett. An assett has real or instrinsic value. It can be physical, like property or bullion. Or it can be backed by something tangable, like shares in a business etc. cash may no longer be backed by gold, but it is backed by the government, and guaranteed when invested in banks. You can buy insurance for assetts and use them as security. Bitcoin does none of these things. It is as much an assett as a TAB ticket is on the next race.
        The network or blockchain has no value. It is a concept that holds no IP, and has been duplicated and used all around the world. Buying bitcoin does not get you a share of it.
        Bitcoin is pure hype. It is not currency. It is not accepted in any western nation as currency. It is not an assett. It can be stolen easily, not through the blockchain, but through the wallet. Wallets are hacked everyday by criminals and governments. And it no longer anonymous as govs have learned to trace transactions through the blockchain.
        You are trying to encourage others to "invest" money into it. You have no financial delaers or investment advisors licence. You gloss over the ricks and truths, and outright lie. All of this is a crime in Australia. And this entire discussion is proof, and has been saved and sent to ASIC and the ATO. But Im sure you will be ok, because you will have reported the gains you have made every finacial year to the ATO and paid tax on it, as you have had to do for years now.

        • thesilverstarman on 22/03/2023 - 18:00

          you posted that you bank with ING, who you use for mobile coverages, your purchases, and you use your name on other sites. Smart guy.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 20:38
          -1

          Bitcoin is pure hype. It is not currency. It is not accepted in any western nation as currency. It is not an assett. It can be stolen easily, not through the blockchain, but through the wallet.

          You can pay your state taxes in Colorado in Bitcoin. https://tax.colorado.gov/cryptocurrency#:~:text=Starting%20S….
          https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/colorado-becomes-first-state…

          You are trying to encourage others to "invest" money into it. You have no financial delaers or investment advisors licence. You gloss over the ricks and truths, and outright lie. All of this is a crime in Australia. And this entire discussion is proof, and has been saved and sent to ASIC and the ATO. But Im sure you will be ok, because you will have reported the gains you have made every finacial year to the ATO and paid tax on it, as you have had to do for years now.

          Have you read my AMA? https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/613895, Have a look, you might want to send that to ASIC and the ATO as well lol. The ATO loves me, I've paid them enough to buy almost any property in Sydney.

  • asCMSas on 22/03/2023 - 08:35

    quit pumping your buttcoins, looking for more bag holders.
    you bros have suckered all the suckers. move on

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 16:55

      It's an interesting topic and happy to show people another perspective, feel free to consider or disregard it.

  • DingoBilly on 22/03/2023 - 09:46
    +4

    How come cryptocurrency shills always sound the same and are always full of it?

    Whenever their crypto goes up they come out of the woodwork with a smile and a "Hey guys, look at how smart I am! Come join me friends! Pump my bags!"

    Then when it crashes they just disappear completely/say nothing.

    Also love the false comparisons being made. "Meta is 47.6% down from its peak! OMG!" But handily forgets to mention that BTC is down 60% from its peak - but that's ok of course because…. ??

    Keep shilling your ponzi friend. There's limited reasons why crypto can work (in countries with very destabilised currencies) but for most of the world it's a joke. People can value it as whatever they want but ultimately it has no inherent value itself. Similar to NFTs and how a picture can be worth $100k but it's just a manipulated market and doesn't actually have any value itself.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 17:08

      Have you noticed the mainstream media doing the same thing for property?

      Why do you think we all keep seeing articles like these?

      https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/sydney-fathe…
      https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/aussie-dad-m…

      To me, they are pumping the property ponzi scheme. The property market has been pumped up so much due to the gambling/speculation component its not based on fundamentals anymore, the only way it keeps going up is these news sites keep shilling for the ponzi.

      I agree with NFTs, I don't believe in its value, I've not bought any.

      But handily forgets to mention that BTC is down 60% from its peak

      I mention the volatility of BTC all the time. This has been seared into my head, I was down 60% immediately after I bought in 2013, so I know full well how it feels like. Below is the peaks from previous cycles, if you bought the peak of previous cycles, you are pretty happy now, I think these cycles will continue to occur.

      29 November 2013 $1,129
      16 December 2017 $19,641
      10 November 2021 $69,010

      • DingoBilly on 22/03/2023 - 19:18
        +1

        Wow someone mentioned whatabouism above and you're doing that here. Please don't avoid the issues by changing the subject, that's a poor argument.

        Also, please don't use news.com.au for any news articles lol. That really shows your hand if you think that is a credible news site.

        Thank you for cherry picking some prices and times. I could show you the same thing for NFTs which you deride as not having value so I'm not sure I understand. You believe in one made up thing but not the other?

        Like if I bought one Ape at $300 in 2021 I'd now have $135,000. So by your logic that price is everything, look at the history - NFTs are superior to BTC, yet you claim they have no value? What's going on bud? My jpeg is clearly 3x more valuable than your 1 online dollar. I guess BTC is going to fail because my NFTs are so valuable and only going up!

  • Griffindinho on 22/03/2023 - 10:38
    +3

    You’re asset is only worth as much as the next sucker is willing to pay for it. It’s one giant ponzi.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 11:33
      -1

      You've just described a share or a property as well.

      • Mistredo on 22/03/2023 - 12:59
        +2

        Properties have utility and many shares are backend by profitable businesses that pay dividends. It is not the same thing.

  • RefusdClassification on 22/03/2023 - 11:15
    +3

    Come on guys, lets all take money out of the bank with their paltry interest rates and put in into crytocurrency. The value keeps on rising and we all end up rich.

    • Top G on 22/03/2023 - 11:15
      +3

      HODL 😉

      • cashews on 22/03/2023 - 11:26
        +2

        💎🤲 🚀 HODL LFG fren.

      • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 11:35
        -3

        I've been HODLing since 2013, before the term "hodling" even existed. :O

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 11:34

      That's what I have been doing these last few months. I'm down to my last $200k AUD. I will keep it in the bank because that's guaranteed by the government.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 11:40

      Throughout last year I sold off part of my portfolio, and I ended up with $8 mil AUD cash after paying the ATO. I HODLed most of my portfolio in crypto, in hindsight, I should have sold more, but woulda, coulda, shoulda, can't turn back time.

      So I have choice to make, just like in 2013 (albeit with way way less money), should I invest in shares, property or crypto? I chose crypto in 2013 and worked out very well. I will never be able to accumulate the wealth I have today with shares or property. I decided to invest in crypto again, its working out ok, but let's see in a couple of years.

      Time will tell. :)

      • localhost on 22/03/2023 - 17:59
        +3

        Can you elaborate how come you sold everything and got $8M and this:
        I'm down to my last $AUD200k cash, rest of my net worth is all in crypto….

        Another hogwash :)

        • DingoBilly on 23/03/2023 - 08:28
          +1

          I mean, they had $8 million but they kept it in crypto. So it's unsurprising that they're down to $200k now. (and yes, it's a joke given they seem to have said they invested the rest in crypto).

          That's why they're on here after all, gotta get some more ponzi investors in!

          Really stupid if so though. If you made life changing money once off a pure gamble, why the (profanity) would you double down and try again on a very small chance it'll happen again? I guess it's a gambling thing where you'll almost always end up broke because you can't help yourself.

          • localhost on 23/03/2023 - 13:38

            @DingoBilly: Clearly he ended with $8M in cash - see above: and I ended up with $8 mil AUD cash after paying the ATO
            But still looking for monkeys to fuel ponzi scheme.

            If he made a lot of money from BTC the easiest way to convince us will be to post photo of his new Ferrari with license plate BTC4EVR or something like this. But all we see is… hogwash.

            • techlead on 23/03/2023 - 16:07

              @localhost:

              If he made a lot of money from BTC the easiest way to convince us will be to post photo of his new Ferrari with license plate BTC4EVR or something like this

              I don't want to expose myself to the $10 wrench hack. I don't even have a Bitcoin or crypto themed shirt.

          • techlead on 23/03/2023 - 16:06

            @DingoBilly: I believe crypto is the future, so I will continue to invest in it.

            And its not a once off pure gamble. I started with buying 2BTC for $1600USD, I didn't stop buying.

        • techlead on 23/03/2023 - 16:04
          -1

          I didn't sell everything. Most of my portfolio remained in crypto. As of March 2021, my portfolio was worth $45 mil. Its a lot less now of course.

          I'm not looking for validation, don't care if you believe me or not.

          • localhost on 23/03/2023 - 18:24

            @techlead: So, why you are trying to convince us that crypto is the feature when you don't have anything to show?

            I can pretend anything - dreams are free after all.

          • nigel deborah on 23/03/2023 - 21:36
            +1

            @techlead: Not looking for validation or to promote crypto, yet you are repeatedly posting about it on Ozb? Just doing your bit to help out the Aussie battler with great (illegal) financial advice I guess?

          • [Deactivated] on 23/03/2023 - 21:40
            +1

            @techlead: Yet…you ask if you should repair a 5 year old TV?

            45 million 🤣🤣🤣

            OzBargain is full of Muppets.

            If I was worth 45 million, if post a few photos. Why not? Nothing gets your point across with proof.

            But like 99% on here, FOS.

            If only accounts were attached to names, and a photo we'd get a very different version of this forum.

            • techlead on 23/03/2023 - 21:52
              -1

              @[Deactivated]: I addressed this in my 2021 AMA already, https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/10285520/redir. My reply got more upvotes than the comment saying the exact same thing as you.

              If I was worth 45 million, if post a few photos. Why not? Nothing gets your point across with proof.

              The point of this thread and my AMA was to increase awareness of cryptocurrencies, debunk a few myths, opine on recent global financial events and hopefully change a few people's minds about cryptocurrency. I did not mention how much my portfolio is in my AMA post, because that's not the main point. I only mentioned it in one of the comments. I did not make this post to flaunt my wealth.

              Plus, its a little different with cryptocurrency, I can't take a picture of my crypto like this drug lord, https://www.joe.ie/news/pics-this-pile-of-cash-worth-22bn-wa….

              If I was to take a picture of my crypto stack, it would be me holding up 2 Trezors and Ledgers and that's not as impressive as stacks of cash unfortunately.

              Since you want a photo, here's one that would represent me, https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7oyba2/bitcoiners_… haha

  • TheBigShort on 22/03/2023 - 12:19
    +4

    Have you run out of friends and family to talk to about crypto?

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 12:37
      -1

      Nope, I don't bring it up unless they do. Its quite funny, during the bear market, they don't talk about it. Now that Bitcoin is "surging" again, they come out of the wood works to ask me whether now is a "good time to buy".

      I told them, the time to buy was a few months ago, but they should make their own decisions. It really doesn't affect me whether they buy or not. In fact, I'd rather they not buy, because they would come back with follow up questions etc etc and the only benefit to me is the satisfaction of helping someone out, it certainly do not benefit me financially.

  • zeoko on 22/03/2023 - 12:26

    Where should we start doing bitcoins? Please suggest for someone very very new.

    • lostgoat on 22/03/2023 - 12:28
      +2

      binance.com/en-AU has the best rates by far .

    • PopCounty on 23/03/2023 - 00:00

      Before going in crypto world, get a hard wallet like Ledger. It’s like purchasing a land to start building your home. Safeguard your asset to the level
      You can. Watch videos on ledger site to understand basics of wallet and cryptos. Trade the cheapest coins first like Ada, Xrp, Theta etc. Get to know cryptos and the tx cost is minimal.

      And, as suggested, use binance as trading site. Don’t ever be tempted to trade elsewhere as the exchange may collapse. Unless some coin you want to purchase isn’t listed in Binance.

      So you purchase coins on binance. And then transfer to Ledger wallet.

      Or if you want, directly you can purchase from ledger wallet via coinify or something. Tx cost would be more.

      • Gaz1 on 23/03/2023 - 18:17

        Is there any chance that Binance or Ledger could have issues, close down or something could happen to lose your wallet or some value?

        • PopCounty on 23/03/2023 - 20:23
          +1

          Binance, Yes as its exchange. Therefore don't keep coins there lying. Use it for trade purposes only. Binance seems to dominate exchanges though.

          Ledger, its hardware wallet. And even if lost/corrupted, you can still recover your wallet in new device. So pretty safe there.
          Ledger as a company seems solid with sales. So do not see any issues there as well. Said that, you need your due diligence.

          Just make sure you do not share your seed words. Anything you purchase for Ledger, make it a direct purchase with them. Even if you purchase connecting cables. Don't use ANY other cable.

  • Serapis on 22/03/2023 - 12:43

    Are you in any way associated with the same Techlead that got sent to jail for running a million dollar scam?

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 12:50
      +1

      No I'm not.

      Wow, didn't know he went to jail, I will look into that!

  • StalkingIbis on 22/03/2023 - 12:44
    +1

    Crypto is similar to gold in that it generates no value and relies on people paying a higher price for it than you paid in order for it to increase in value. Hang on, is it an asset or a currency?

    The value of crypto is backed on the effort people have already put in to mine it. Huge energy demands that they want a roi for.

    Unlike gold, which takes energy to mine, crypto has no industrial or retail uses.

    These are the reasons I don't like it.

    Yes, people have made money off of it….but how was that money created? They just took it from other people who lost money on it, kind of similar to gambling.

    Good luck ripping poeple off, but dont spruik it as a great investment.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 13:01
      -6

      It would be helpful if you understood how the Bitcoin network works.

      The amount of energy that the Bitcoin network uses is a function of the amount of people trying to mine it, which is a function of the perceived value of Bitcoin and its network which in turn is a function of its adoption. Back in 2009, not many people were using it, and demand was low, so the entire network ran on just a handful of computers, energy requirements were negligible. That's the beauty of the Bitcoin network, it can adjust based on demand to control for coin minting.

      As Bitcoin gained in popularity, prominence and trust in its network grew as more and more people used it, its value increased enticing more and more people to mine it. Back in the day, a single couple could have easily mined blocks, but when I started in 2013, this was not possible, people had to pool their computing power in order to get any mining rewards.

      You should look at what you get with the Bitcoin network, you get a censorship resistant and permissionless network that works independent of the banks. How much energy does the banking system use? All the servers they run and offices they maintain? Also add in the cost of all the bailouts when they fail, how many bank failures have there been since 2009?

      Yes, people have made money off of it….but how was that money created? They just took it from other people who lost money on it, kind of similar to gambling.

      How do people make money from shares? How do people make money from property? Do they take it from people who lost money?

      The money was created because more people demand it, therefore bidding up the price. Its basic market dynamics, if there is one person willing to sell a BTC for $1000, another for $1001 and 5 people willing to sell for $1003. If there are then 10 people willing to pay $1000 for a BTC, then you'd have 9 dissatisfied people because the market no longer has $1000 BTC to sell anymore, so these 9 people will need to increase their bids in order to get any BTC.

      • Autonomic on 22/03/2023 - 15:20
        +9

        How do people make money from shares? How do people make money from property? Do they take it from people who lost money?

        Shares represent ownership of a company. A company has tangible assets and generates income. Same with land and buildings.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 15:23
          -1

          Not all things of value have to be tangible. If you look at a company's financial statement, for some companies you can see some intangible assets, like brand name, goodwill etc. These have value, that's why there's a positive number next to them in the financial statement.

          • Autonomic on 22/03/2023 - 15:24
            +12

            @techlead: OK? Crypto still has none of that. It's a zero sum game - the only profit is from someone else's loss.

            • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 15:30
              -1

              @Autonomic: How is crypto a zero sum game?

              If I bought Bitcoin at $800 each, I sold it for $1000, then Bitcoin goes to $2000. Did I lose $1000? So the person who bought it off me profited from me losing $1000? Or did I gain $200 and the person who bought it off me lost $200, but the asset is worth more now?

              If I bought a $1 mil house, ignoring stamp duty and other costs, if I then sold it for $1.5 mil a year later without any renovations or changes. Does that mean my profit of $500k is a "loss" for the person who bought it from me for $1.5 mil?

              My point is, the "value" of Bitcoin is being a finite asset (verifiable with code, only 21 mil can exist) and a reliable, censorship resistant and permissionless network that has never been hacked, never gone down and never been otherwise stopped. That's where the value of Bitcoin comes from and right now the market says its worth $545 billion. I believe its worth trillions perhaps more.

              • Autonomic on 22/03/2023 - 15:36
                +7

                @techlead:

                If I bought Bitcoin at $800 each, I sold it for $1000, then Bitcoin goes to $2000. Did I lose $1000?

                Because the total amount of money in the system remains equal.

                You can live in a house. Companies sell things. What does BTC do? Nothing. How does it generate wealth? It doesn't.

                • quanticism on 23/03/2023 - 01:10

                  @Autonomic: This convo got me thinking. Profiting from the transition from fiat to bitcoin sounds like a zero sum game. That's why people called the transition a redistribution of wealth. The total amount of "wealth" (goods) stays the same but it's been redistributed. You could argue that we're producing more goods than before but in the context of how sudden the transition in the store of value is, it's effectively constant.

                  I'm less sure about how to interpret profiting from a house. Let's create a simple example - your entire system consists of: 10 people, 10 houses at $1 per house. There's a total of $10 in the entire system.

                  If children are born and now there's 20 people, what happens? Demand for houses goes up. But there's only $10 in the entire system so wouldn't increasing the price of houses would throw the system off balance? (Not sure what the implications of "off balance" are)

                  If the children create value by building 10 more houses, then it'd make sense for the price of each house to drop to $0.5. Is it a zero sum game that the parents lost $0.5 while the children gained $0.5 each? From the perspective of the dollar numbers, yes. From the perspective of how much tangible value they have, no.

                  In the real world, people are mainly profiting off real estate because of increased speculative demand, not the actual construction of new houses. So I guess that means most profits in the real estate market is a zero sum game?

                  It's getting late, I have no idea what I'm typing anymore. But I do think saying profiting from BTC is a zero sum game isn't much of an argument. If BTC doesn't succeed, then yes, retrospectively, any profits and losses made via it was a zero sum game that brought no additional value to anyone. If it succeeds, then yes, we have a redistribution of wealth, but we also theoretically gained value by adopting a "better" currency system.

                  • Autonomic on 23/03/2023 - 11:19

                    @quanticism:

                    If it succeeds, then yes, we have a redistribution of wealth, but we also theoretically gained value by adopting a "better" currency system.

                    The problem is that BTC is impossible to use as a currency so this is a moot point. There are zero advantages to using BTC.

                    • techlead on 23/03/2023 - 16:22

                      @Autonomic:

                      The problem is that BTC is impossible to use as a currency so this is a moot point.

                      I wouldn't say its "impossible" to use. I concede that its difficult to use, in the same way the internet was difficult to use back in the 1980s. I'm not that old, so I've never experienced dial up before, but from what I have read, seems like a very cumbersome technology which doesn't seem to be useful and will never take off. The internet nowadays is nothing like dial up in the 1980s, and the same will hold true for crypto in 5-10 years time.

                      Have a read of this article, https://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirv….

                      That aged like milk and so will all the naysayers about crypto.

                      • Autonomic on 23/03/2023 - 17:15

                        @techlead: And there were plenty of arguments FOR the web. There are no arguments to be made FOR BTC as a currency.

                        Crypto is dial-up and credit cards are fibre if you want to continue your internet analogy.

  • gromit on 22/03/2023 - 13:00

    decouple? it looks even more tightly coupled than ever. basically risk is high in banking at moment hence banking down crypto up. If/when stability comes back then Crypto down banking up.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 13:03

      Yea, the dust hasn't settled yet, so not sure.

      I think the Central bank opening the unlimited money tap also plays a role as well. Time will tell, we can only speculate because that's all we can do.

  • Tiredman on 22/03/2023 - 13:02

    Enjoying the ride. As always.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 13:03

      Yep, I'm strapped in, let's get this roller coaster going.

  • Cluster on 22/03/2023 - 13:10
    +4

    Bitcoin is still well over 50% down on recent highs, so maybe pause the champagne cork popping for a moment. Bitcoin was as low as $20k a couple of weeks ago.

    It's supposed to be a currency, yet is so volatile that no one in their right mind would do commerce with it.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 13:20

      10th March, that's the last time when Bitcoin was below $20k USD, I know that date well because that was the last time I bought Bitcoin. If it drops below $20k, I will buy it.

      I don't see it as a currency, I think of it as more of a wealth generating asset. I've been using the dollar cost averaging method loosely since 2013. I say loosely because I try to time my periodic purchases based on technical analysis, buy on the retracements, look at the broader cycle, try to sell more before the bear so I can buy more coins during the bear market etc. I'm not very good timing the market unfortunately, but it doesn't matter because I couldn't have accumulated my wealth today with any other investment.

      You can do your own easy calculations here, (not financial advice) https://www.bitcoindollarcostaverage.com/.

      Let's say you start on 1st August 2013 to buy $500USD worth of Bitcoin every single month religiously, like a mortgage repayment. Then till now, you would have spent $58000USD and have 67.57074731 BTC worth $1,903,940.95 USD with a percentage gain of 3,182.66%.

      Which other investment gives those returns? No property, nor share can compare.

      • Mistredo on 22/03/2023 - 14:39
        +8

        You should ask yourself how it generates wealth? By luring more people to buy it. That's not very sustainable.

        • FlyingMiffy on 22/03/2023 - 18:45
          +3

          I thought the post was intentionally trying to attract buyers so the ponzi scheme can continue! The OP knows exactly how it generates wealth! That 38% increase cant get to 50% unless some other person decides to add to the demand. The OP very casually mentions cashing out on $8m to create a sense of wealth - and implies that it could be anyone who follows a similar "investment" method. The OP speaks like the other ponzi spruiklers (you know the ones that sell placebo meds and there are menbership tiers that give guaranteed commission returns?). A few will make money from BTC but you need to be able to live with yourself that the "gains" is always someone elses savings that bought in… and everytime the bear runs, its because those that bought earlier are taking "profits" or cashing out. BTC generates no value on its own… it is 100% funded by the ponzi.

  • 50centscheaper on 22/03/2023 - 14:11
    +5

    Disappeared when Bitcoin was at the bottom in Jan-23.

    Created this post when Bitcoin price rebounded (nearly 60-70%) from the bottom and said he disappeared because he has been buying :)

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 15:08

      Yep, I'm very busy during the bear market. That's when I will make the most money. That was the lesson I learnt in the previous bear cycle in 2018.

      It works out because if I even mention crypto, I get laughed at during the bear market, so what's the point? I experienced this in 2018/2019, why waste my time? I can better use my time researching and buying.

      Bascially, all throughout 2018/2019 everyone who has ever spoken to me about crypto was saying this:

      Caution, there's some profanity, Dan calls Bitcoin, Bitf**k, so cover your ears if you are a snowflake.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMpAREXD6f8

      Zero, Zero, Bitcoin is going to Zero. "Shows you the stupidity", yes, I totally agree, his stupidity. :D

      Keep in mind Dan said this when Bitcoin dropped from $6k to $3k USD. I was busy buying furiously.

      Now to those same people, I say, Zero, Zero, Zero, Zero, Zero, with a two in front in USD heading towards a three. Hahaha!

      • Mrgreenz on 22/03/2023 - 17:20
        +1

        Least your honest you only pump when you've finished buying.

        Love the thought of someone being so busy buying a digital asset they don't even have time to write a forum post.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 20:46

          Not sure if you have seen, I don't usually just write one liners, I actually take the time to write out my responses with supporting evidence. That takes time. I also have a day job, I haven't retired yet.

          Also, as I mentioned above, what's the point of posting when I will just get ridiculed like old mate Dan there. When he made those comments he was so happy with himself, Zero, Zero, Zero, but now egg is on his face and everyone is laughing at him.

          No one is going to have an open mind during a bear market. You can see it even in shares and property. Try holding a property investment seminar now? Its going to be a ghost town. No one is even inspecting properties, I go to an open house, the agent was relieved to see me lol. Its human psychology, when the market is down, very few people are buying.

          Let's be honest, even if everyone in this forum bought some Bitcoin, it ain't moving the market. The trading volume for Bitcoin alone in the last 24 hours is more than $33 billion USD.

    • lostgoat on 22/03/2023 - 15:08

      Still has to get to the market Cap of Apple and Amazon combined to get to what some people rate it at not too far in the future.

      • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 15:21

        It will eventually. Its just a matter of time.

  • johnfuller on 22/03/2023 - 14:30
    +2

    eventually bitcoin will be blocked by government firewalls to stop the excess energy consumption

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 15:17
      -1

      They can certainly try and China has definitely attempted it.

      As for energy consumption, the beauty of having a decentralized network is that it will easily move and adjust. When China banned industrialized mining, they just shifted to another country. I say industrialized because China can never ban mining totally, because you can do it by just turning on a computer, are they going to stop people from turning on a computer? Its not a foolproof way to stop mining with a firewall, its cat and mouse game which dedicated people will play.

      The Bitcoin network can operation on 3 computers or 3 million computers, it doesn't matter it will adjust.

      • johnfuller on 23/03/2023 - 09:51
        +1

        bitcoin continues to consume energy in excess, go check the stats, no one has adjusted.

  • Whomastadon on 22/03/2023 - 15:10
    +3

    " fiat currencies are not backed by anything and its worth gets diminished "

    As opposed to Bitcoin???

    Lol

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 15:14
      +2

      Here's a good article which summarizes why all fiat currencies not backed by anything eventually goes to zero.

      https://kinesis.money/case-studies/paper-money-eventually-re…

      If you kept your savings in cash in the bank over the last 10-20 years, then from a returns perspective you have lost out, you are much much worse off than those who bought assets, like shares, property and Bitcoin. This is a fact.

      • furakoph on 22/03/2023 - 15:49
        +3

        It's backed by everything you see in the country though.

        The whole capitalism system is based on FIAT currency and the federal government. All the infrasturcture, social system, networks, banks, roads, houses are essentially what's backing fiat.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 15:58

          Capitalism is the rules of the economy. Non capitalist countries can also use fiat currency.

          Yes, fiat currency is backed by the full faith and credit of the government that issues it. What happens when the printing presses are spun up? As of Nov 2021, 40% of the entire supply of USD was printed in the preceding 12 months.

          What do you think its going to happen to its value? In this context, when I say value, I mean purchasing power, what you can buy with your $20USD for example.

          As a thought experiment, what do you think is going to happen if everyone was given $1 mil in their bank accounts instantly tomorrow? Do you think it will solve all the problems in the world? $1 mil to one person will solve most of their problems, $1 mil to everyone will create alot of problems.

          This is what is meant by fiat currency is not backed by anything because it can be created out of thin air. When the gold standard was around, it was tethered to the amount of gold the government has in reserve, because if people did not trust the currency, they can exchange it to a shiny rock they do trust, but that has been "temporarily suspended" to this day (haha, what a joke). I don't think it will ever come back.

          • furakoph on 22/03/2023 - 16:22

            @techlead:

            What do you think its going to happen to its value? In this context, when I say value, I mean purchasing power, what you can buy with your $20USD for example.

            Inflation happens

            As a thought experiment, what do you think is going to happen if everyone was given $1 mil in their bank accounts instantly tomorrow? Do you think it will solve all the problems in the world? $1 mil to one person will solve most of their problems, $1 mil to everyone will create alot of problems.

            Pointless hypothetical. Nothing will solve all the problems in the world, money doesn't solve everything.

            This is what is meant by fiat currency is not backed by anything because it can be created out of thin air.

            Well it's backed by the Federal Government and all that follows it. This means the entire economic system, banking system, tax system, social system, defense system, nukes, real estate, infrastructure, public assets and land etc.

            You cannot just fork and mint USD.

            Bitcoin is the one that is actually not backed by anything. Anyone could literally fork it and create bitcoin 2. There is nothing actually backing bitcoin, it's just given value out of thin air. There is no way cryptocurrencies won't experience a catastrophic crash if our entire economic system crashes, we already seen how stock market crashes also crashes the crypto market concurrently. The crypto market price is purely backed by sentiment.

            It has no arbitary floor price and that's why 99% of all cryptocurrencies eventually become worthless. The only reason BTC has value is because we believe it has value. If tomorrow all the exchanges and billion dollar VC's think a bitcoin fork is the 'new' bitcoin and everyone moves to it then there is actually no reason btc cannot dump 99% as it has no price floor, there is no physical asset backing it.

            I can tell you that the USD is backed by at least 4000 nuclear bombs. I'm pretty sure the Government owns all the underlying infrastructure (internet/electricity/sattelite systems/GPS) that even allows bitcoin to exist.

            • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 16:44

              @furakoph:

              You cannot just fork and mint USD.

              Its pointless to fork Bitcoin and it has been done before, there are many Bitcoin forks, but none of the same valuation? Why? It is because you can fork the code easily because its open source, but you can't fork the community or the developers. If they choose to stay with the main chain and don't come with you, then its pointless.

              This is demonstrated by ETH. What we know as ETH today is actually a fork, the original chain is called ETH Classic. The main chain is the most dominate one even though its a fork because the community followed the fork and most of the developers went to the fork instead of supporting the main chain after a hack.

              The only reason BTC has value is because we believe it has value.

              That's right and people trust it. Fiat currency has value because the government says so, the definition of Fiat is "by decree".

              I can tell you that the USD is backed by at least 4000 nuclear bombs.

              Russia has 6000 nuclear bombs, why isn't the ruble the global reserve currency? The USD is backed by oil. The US has mandated that all oil transactions must be transacted with USD, this is changing due to sanctions on Russia. This is the main reason why USD is the reserve currency.

              • furakoph on 22/03/2023 - 17:36

                @techlead:

                Why? It is because you can fork the code easily because its open source, but you can't fork the community or the developers. If they choose to stay with the main chain and don't come with you, then its pointless.

                That's why I said if all the main exchanges, funds and a huge movement away from BTC then there is no reason BTC retains it's current value.

                The vast majority of BTC's value is held up by exchanges and funds that have bought tens of billions of dollars worth of it. The average investor has almost zero influence on the price. IT's all whales and if they move away then btc will tank because it has nothing actually physically backing it. It can literally go to zero because you cannot redeem or sell anything that backs it.

                The US government would have easily trillions in actual physical assets. Their defense assets alone would easily be multi trillions imo (navy, airforce, army).

                This is demonstrated by ETH. What we know as ETH today is actually a fork, the original chain is called ETH Classic.

                It's the main chain because eth foundation and vitalik say it is. If they moved to a different chain then that becomes the new chain, eth has hard forked multiple times in the past. There is no inherent value in any of these blockchains if you can easily change it like nothing happened. As you say, it is basically whatever is deemed the main chain at that specific moment in time and can easily change because it has no inherent value.

                That's right and people trust it.

                Trust alone is a very weak collateral if you want to hold up the entire financial system solely on trust. Pretty ridiciulous that you admit that the entire cryptocurrency value is backed by nothing but 'trust'. IF you learnt anything, trust nothing in the world of crypto.

                Fiat currency has value because the government says so, the definition of Fiat is "by decree".

                FIAT currency has value because all the underlying systems, assets and powers of the Government and people trust the government system far more than bitcoin. They own all the basic infrastructure in the country, including pretty much everything you need to actually trade/mine cryptocurrency. If the government takes away your internet and electricity, how you gonna do anything with your btc?

                Russia has 6000 nuclear bombs, why isn't the ruble the global reserve currency?

                It's still the official currency of Russia, try to force Russia to change their currency to BTC and see what they do with their nukes. It's not the global reserve currency because USA is richer and stronger.

      • Whomastadon on 22/03/2023 - 23:46

        As opposed to buying a pizza with Bitcoin, and a year later that pizza cost you $60,000.

        Wow that sounds so much better.

  • yoshi864 on 22/03/2023 - 15:55
    +1

    A lot of boomer takes in this thread.

    The only way Bitcoin goes to zero is in a blacker-than-midnight swan event, e.g. nuclear warfare or environmental collapse, in which case it doesn't matter much anyway.

    Will it go down? Yeah, probably. The world is still reeling from covid, war in Europe and inflation (a result of the previous two).

    Will it go up? Probably will too. These bull runs come in cycles, and I seriously doubt that US$69k will forever be the all time high of Bitcoin. Even if it just goes back to $69K, that's still ~2.5x profit from where we are now.

    The question is, are you patient enough to buy and wait out the red days. Many aren't, and leave the arena frustrated and lighter of pocket.

    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 16:03

      The very interesting thing here, is that people always ask for "patience" when it comes to Bitcoin, but they never say the same thing for that investments like shares or property.

      I was told by real estate agents during the height of the boom that, "Its ok to overpay for property, its fine, just get on the ladder, after 5 years, you will definitely break even or even be in profit". Its not just one, I've been told this by multiple agents from different real estate agencies. So its ok to FOMO into property, but don't do that for Bitcoin? It makes zero sense to me.

      Looking back at the previous performance of Bitcoin (I'm well aware that past performance is not indicative of previous performance), Bitcoin has been an asset that has the most frequent peaks, that means even if you bought at a cycle's absolute tippy top (I've not been lucky enough to have done this, I have yet to buy nor sell the top, likewise for the bottom), you will break even and be in huge profits in a relatively short time, compared to other assets, eg shares, property etc.

      Look at all the previous peaks from the previous cycle:
      29 November 2013 $1,129
      16 December 2017 $19,641
      10 November 2021 $69,010

      Why are people so impatient with Bitcoin, yet give property 5 years to break even or make a profit?

    • furakoph on 22/03/2023 - 16:29
      +1

      The only way Bitcoin goes to zero is in a blacker-than-midnight swan event

      Same for USD/FIAT. But it would have to be a far far darker than midnight swan event than what it would make BTC go to zero.

      • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 16:38

        Well, fiat currency going to zero, just means it loses its purchasing power and goods and services will just be higher in that currency.

        Here's a graph of how the GBP has gone to zero from 1209 to 2019, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1031884/value-pound-ster….

        Hence the lesson is don't hoard fiat currency.

        • furakoph on 22/03/2023 - 17:23
          +1

          That's misleading because there is more supply of it now. Purchasing power is lower but you earn far more of it now.

          People from 1209 don't just have 100GBP and leave it in the ground. IF you put it in any basic bank or ETF it would be worth quite a lot now.

          • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 18:11

            @furakoph: That is true to an extent, that's why people look at real wages and that has been dropping.

            My point is, if you compare hoarding fiat currency, shares, property or Bitcoin in the last 10 years (assuming each person can hoard one asset class only), the person with the fiat currency would be the biggest loser.

            • furakoph on 22/03/2023 - 19:22

              @techlead: Well FIAT is not really an investment unlike shares, property or bitcoin.

              You buy shares, property or bitcoin with the FIAT.

              • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 19:55

                @furakoph: Fiat currency can also be an investment or hedge.

                For example, Argentina used to be a very wealth country. If you were a billionaire/millionaire during that time and you held assets of any kind within Argentina, your wealth would have been decimated today. The only thing that would have saved you would be foreign fiat currencies like USD, GBP, AUD etc or gold and other commodities held outside of Argentina, if its held within Argentina it would have been confiscated.

Login or Join to leave a comment
Login Join