Banking System Melting down While Bitcoin Melts up

techlead on 21/03/2023 - 10:40
Last edited 22/03/2023 - 12:51

I think we are starting to see the cryptocurrency market start to decouple from the traditional markets as people see how fragile the banking system is. Fiat currency (USD, AUD, CHF etc) are backed by nothing but trust, once that trust evaporates, like in the case of SVB, Signature Bank and now Credit Suisse, its back to the money printers to bail these institutions out. SVB in particular, bought "good quality" treasury bonds, yet they mistimed the market and the Feb screwed them over by hiking rates so quickly.

Its funny that in 2017, the Credit Suisse CEO said Bitcoin at $7000 was a "bubble" and now Credit Suisse has become Debit Suisse and Bitcoin is worth multiples of $7000.

It is very clear with the strength of Bitcoin recently that many people has now realized fiat currencies are not backed by anything and its worth gets diminished once the printer goes brrrrrrr. I'm very glad I've been aggressively buying my favorite crypto over these last couple of months. The new bull market is nearly upon us and Bitcoin and good quality alts will once again amazing people. As someone who as widely laughed at and ridiculed to daring to say Bitcoin will be $10k+ USD per coin one day back in 2013/2014, I have experienced these cycles before. As Bitcoin blasts through resistance levels on its way upwards, I'm very sure it will be more than $100k and then eventually more than $1 million per BTC.

I'm down to my last $AUD200k cash, rest of my net worth is all in crypto, I will probably stop buying now, just keep it as a buffer. I'm strapped onto this crypto rocket, who else is onboard?

PS: I'm not associated in any way to the YouTube channel called Techlead who famously adds "as a millionaire" to everything he says and allegedly ran a million dollar scam.

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

  • goober on 21/03/2023 - 10:43
    +19

    Nice post, but clearly you are not living on the breadline when you say "I'm down to my last $200K in cash" … Sounds like you bought in early. Congratulations. Can I ask if you own any other Crypto bar BTC?

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 10:48
      +9

      I am definitely not living on the breadline and I never said or pretended I do. I first started buying Bitcoin in 2013, the friends who bought at the same time as me and kept their coins have all retired, I'm the only one still working. I enjoy what I do, so don't mind continuing to work.

      I do own other cryptos, but from my experience with other cycles, the crypto bull markets pumps in this order, BTC, ETH, Major alts (DOT, BNB, AVAX, EGLD), medium cap alts, Micro cap alts Hence I have been buying mainly BTC and ETH over the last couple of months. I did buy some micro caps during those dips, they tend to get slaughtered more during the bear market, so good chance to get them cheap, but they wouldn't pump until further into the bull market, probably late 2024 after the BTC halvening.

      I just want increase awareness of cryptocurrencies as a viable investment strategy and dispel some myths about it. I did an AMA thread probably late in the last bull market, so alot of people laughed at me because the crypto market started dropping a few months after my post, but that's ok, I never said I could predict nor time the market. All I'm saying is crypto is a viable asset class, people should seriously look into it and beware of scams.

      • goober on 21/03/2023 - 11:01
        +3

        Can you share the AMA link? Unfortunately most Crypto 'evangelists' just spruik some shitcoin to pump and dump so I want to see if you are the same or you actually offer genuine insights. While its an asset class, do you not agree its way to volatile to be considered a Gold class investment.? Your answer will be telling.

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:03
          +5

          Here you go, https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/613895.

          I don't do that. You can see for yourself by reading my post. Its not about get rich quick, its about executing a viable investment strategy.

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:09
          +6

          While its an asset class, do you not agree its way to volatile to be considered a Gold class investment.? Your answer will be telling.

          There are two main types of assets, wealth generation and wealth preservation. For a wealth generation asset, you want it to be volatile otherwise, how do you generate any wealth? If you bought gold 10 years ago, you wouldn't have gained much compared to Bitcoin.

          Since I'm relatively young, I'm interested in wealth generating (volatile) assets, that's how I made my wealth. In 2024/2025, I'm going to switch, sell down my crypto portfolio and buy wealth preservation assets, like property.

          Yes, contrary to popular opinion, I believe property (real estate) is a wealth preservation asset, look at its returns over the last 10 years, its nothing compared to Bitcoin's or most major alts, its not even in the same universe and that's without leverage, spot only.

          There is no asset that is not volatile and is a wealth generation asset, that's an oxymoron.

          • mun4 on 22/03/2023 - 11:50

            @techlead: Buy and hold is not a wealth generation strategy. Are you aware of the drawdown ratio for crypto? Volatility equals risks. A high drawdown means you could be completely wiped out over a single downturn.

            I'd rather trade shares to achieve a 15% return over a 9% drawdown.

            • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 11:56

              @mun4:

              Are you aware of the drawdown ratio for crypto?

              I've been in crypto since 2013, this is my 4th cycle, I'm very well aware of that.

              Volatility equals risks. A high drawdown means you could be completely wiped out over a single downturn.

              I don't use leverage, I only buy spot. Please enlighten on how I can be "completely wiped out" over a single downturn?
              Take my very first purchase of 2BTC for $1600USD in 2013. Within a couple of weeks I was down 60-70%, however I did not sell. I withdrew those 2BTC to a paper wallet almost immediately. I have those 2BTC to this day, I just checked the blockchain, its still there. Those 2 BTC has been through many many, countless downturns, please explain to me how its still there and its not "wiped out"?
              Funny thing, when I went back to break even on those 2BTC in 2014, I actually transferred it to an exchange to sell, but I was busy with other stuff, when I got around to it, I forgot my password and couldn't be bothered to reset it. The rest is now history. I don't think I will ever sell those 2BTC, it has sentimental value.

              I'd rather trade shares to achieve a 15% return over a 9% drawdown.

              This is your risk appetite and fair enough. I like more asymmetrical returns. You can do the maths on my returns from $800USD Bitcoin to $28k USD today, or ETH $20 to its value today, what the percentage gain is. I can retire now from just 10 years of investing in crypto, can you achieve that with your shares and/or property?

              • mun4 on 22/03/2023 - 12:22
                +1

                @techlead:

                Those 2 BTC has been through many many, countless downturns, please explain to me how its still there and its not "wiped out"?

                So is your investment strategy to simply hold those 2 BTC and not trade any more? An effective investment strategy has to be repeatable and sustainable. The first BTC I bought were in 2011/2012 at $2.10 but $2 BTC days are long gone - so are $1k blocks of Sydney land. Investment is about value, and cryptos aren't circulated and have little to no value.

                If you bought BTC at $60k with a third of your savings, you'd probably have different ideas.

                You can do the maths on my returns from $800USD Bitcoin to $28k USD today, or ETH $20 to its value today, what the percentage gain is

                It's dangerous to look solely at returns because you'd be avoiding the issue of drawdown. It's not hard to come up with a share trading strategy to achieve >100%pa return either. The problem is the potential drawdown could be huge.

                • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 12:33
                  -1

                  @mun4:

                  So is your investment strategy to simply hold those 2 BTC and not trade any more?

                  I use the Dollar Cost Average strategy. I periodically buy BTC and other cryptos. I also try to time my buys based on technical analysis, so buy on a retrace, start selling during the bull market, buy more during the downturn. I also want to time each cycle and start to sell off some before the bear market. I don't have a crystal ball, so my timing is not always right, in fact its mostly wrong, I rarely catch the tops or the bottoms, but that's not the point. In the last cycle, I managed to cash out $8 mil AUD after tax, I kept the majority of my portfolio in crypto though, in hindsight I should have sold more, but woulda coulda shoulda, can't change that.

                  I purchase crypto pretty much every month, depending on the cycle, less during the bull cycle and more during the bear market. Eg, these last couple of months, I've been buying every week, sometimes every day, especially during those dips.

                  You can easily see that its a very good strategy (Not financial advice), you can use the calculator yourself https://www.bitcoindollarcostaverage.com/

                  Let's say starting 1st August 2013, you buy $500USD worth of BTC every single month, then till now you would have spent $58000USD and have 67.57074731 BTC worth $1,903,940.95USD with a return of 3,182.66%. I was buying way more than $500USD of BTC a month and I also bought other coins too.

                  You can clearly see that this trumps an investment property quite handily.

                  • Gaz1 on 22/03/2023 - 16:40

                    @techlead: Techlead - its quite interesting to hear your history with Bitcoin & I suspect a lot of us are amazed to hear your real-life gains & how you stuck in there even when it dropped (which spooked a lot of people). Whilst the past monsterous gains have been impressive (and many are kicking themselves for not getting a little bit at least), I'm not sure that we're going to see these sorts of gains for someone who just starts with Bitcoin right now (and I think a lot of people are reading this from the point of view that hindsight is a great thing but past performance is no indication of how it will go if I started now).

                    • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 17:03
                      -1

                      @Gaz1: I believe the cycles will continue and that someone buying in today will gain from it (not financial advice). Let's exchange what you said with property. Do you think someone buying an investment property today will see the sort of gains someone experienced since 2013?

                      Past performance is not an indicator of future performance, but it can give some insights. History do not repeat, it rythmns.

                      Here are the past peaks of previous cycles:

                      29 November 2013 $1,129
                      16 December 2017 $19,641
                      10 November 2021 $69,010

                      Someone who bought the absolute tippy top of the last cycle would be pretty happy today.

                      Time will tell of course whether I'm right.

                      • Gaz1 on 22/03/2023 - 17:34

                        @techlead: Yes, true - there are quite a few example of very high gains since 2013 (eg classic cars) - obviously not as crazy as Bitcoin but I see your point about past performance not applying there either. And I guess my same comment applies to these other previous high performers - eg probably not a great time to buy property either (if you are expecting high gains).

                        With the current price being $28K, I presume you mean:

                        Someone who bought the absolute tippy top of the last cycle (USD $69k) would be pretty UNHAPPY today (USD $28K).

                        • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 15:04

                          @Gaz1: I was referring to the 16th Dec 2017, cycle top of $19,641. I was not lucky enough to buy or sell at that point, I did buy a lot of Bitcoin below that price level.

                          The current cycle hasn't finished yet. until we get the next top, the current cycle top is $69k, hence the previous cycle top is $19,641. Therefore, that person would be pretty HAPPY today with the price being $28k.

                          Classic cars, art have been compared to Bitcoin, both legitimate investment vehicles.

        • idjces on 21/03/2023 - 14:44
          -1

          do you not agree its way to volatile to be considered a Gold class investment

          That's an interesting point of view. Every market is inherently volatile. To believe a market is not volatile is because you have been sheltered from the underlying mechanics within that particular market.

          There are no regulators to step in and 'halt' everyone from buying selling just because the price dropped. Crypto markets operate 24/7 with no circuit breakers.

          https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1637851181174124545

          A market run starts on an investment like Silicon Valley Bank? In a free market that will trade straight down to zero like Luna did, there is no regulator to step in and dilute the populace (a hidden wealth transfer), to rescue the favored.

          Regarding shitcoins, sure, there are low barriers to entry, just like within email and the internet. It takes minimal effort to spruik something as an investment with some crypto buzzwords.

          • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 15:09
            +1

            @idjces: Very valid point!

            SVB did everything right, they invested in "high quality" treasury bonds, and yet they went straight to zero in a matter of days like Luna. Our banking system is pretty fragile, we just artificially "fix" it everytime. Someone just went into the database and changed some numbers, now everything is fine, YAY!

            The banking system melt down is continuing because the way Debit Suisse, I mean Credit Suisse was bailed out has spooked investors. The bondholders of Credit Suisse got wiped out, $17 billion worth of Preferential CS bonds, which are supposed to be in front of equity holders got written off while equity holders got $3.25 billion. Now these similar bonds from other banks, like DB, UBS, JPM are getting sold off like rat poison squared. The US Fed was just asked if he's temporarily increasing the FDIC insurance level of $250k to infinity lol.

            The crypto market is powering along.

      • SpicyStew on 22/03/2023 - 18:08

        "Major alts" lol

        Lets revisit this in 3-5 years time!

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 18:12

          Let's define "Major alts", I think ETH, BNB, AVAX, DOT, ADA and MATIC would be worth multiples of what they are today in 3-5 years.

          Time will tell! I hold all of them.

          • SpicyStew on 22/03/2023 - 18:18
            +1

            @techlead: I hope you hold some gold too ;) about to break that $2k usd line

            LFG!

            • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 10:49

              @SpicyStew: You are funny. I sold all my gold early 2013 for $1600USD. I bought Bitcoin later that year.

              You are telling me that 10 years later, its only "about to break" $2k USD, a gain of $400USD? WOW?!? I'm so glad I sold all my gold.

              • SpicyStew on 25/03/2023 - 12:24
                -2

                @techlead: What I find rather interesting is you're still rambling on in 2023.
                …. On a bargain site.

                I know, I know, "buy low, sell high", right? ;)

                • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 14:55
                  +1

                  @SpicyStew: I love bargains. I don't understand why people find it surprising that I can't love bargains, as a millionaire?

          • Zilch on 25/03/2023 - 08:33
            +1

            @techlead: ETH is in a league of it's own bruv; not an "alt"

            • SpicyStew on 25/03/2023 - 12:26

              @Zilch: If ETH isn't an "alt"
              Then BTC is "legacy v0.1 beta"
              End If

              • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 14:56

                @SpicyStew: By definition, anything not Bitcoin is an "alt". Unless ETH overtakes Bitcoin in market cap.

                • SpicyStew on 25/03/2023 - 16:55
                  -1

                  @techlead: By definition your statement is mansplaining ;)

      • Blackadda on 24/03/2023 - 19:15
        +1

        of course you want to increase 'awareness as a viable investment strategy' it's a giant bloody pyramid scheme.

      • Franc-T on 25/03/2023 - 18:03
        +3

        With Crypto, its a huge bubble. Unless the token is tied to some real asset that has some implicit worth its value is always under threat.

        Crypto is a sewer - Over 1000 crypto coins have failed, almost all of them designed as some version of scams the industry is rife with bad actors, both behind coins and exchanges and promoters - its not properly overseen by regulatory authorities. Theres a bunch of high-profile influencers being sued for $1 Billion, for pump and dumps SBF and at least some of his croniess looking at jail time, Do Quan has been arrested the use of Bitcoin and other currencies are used quite commonly for cybercrime and terrorist activities.

        Whilst a lot of people have actually made money with Bitcoin, like the housing market past behaviour doesnt guarntee future returns and when it does turn bad it will really turn bad.

        Crypto-evangelists like yourself (and from your hundreds of posts about it I think thats a fair label) who live in their own closed information bubble spouting the virtues of something that is virtueless cant see the forest for the trees.

    • HeWhoKnows on 22/03/2023 - 10:44
      +17

      And what is crypto currency based on?
      A. Speculation

      Who backs it?
      A. Nobody

      Are there any controls in place?
      A No

      • Malik Nasser on 22/03/2023 - 11:12
        -8

        Firstly, you should read through the comments already posted before leaving a comment which essentially states the same things already. Stop being lazy.

        Secondly, why are these question even important? What is the underlying reason for these questions?
        You can apply these same questions to nearly anything, and the answers are not that important.
        Lets apply it to gold:
        - What is gold based on?
        - Who backs gold?
        - What controls are in place for gold?
        So what answers did you get? How do the answers differ and why are they important?

        Also regarding your last question, are there any controls in place, you have answered no. This is not correct (or your question is not specific enough). Take Bitcoin for example, if there were no controls in place, what stops me from just adding 100 BTC to my wallet without paying for it? Surely there must be some type of control in place to stop people from abusing this?

        Your questions and answer's are just lazy, and do not contribute anything meaningful to the conversation.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 12:01
          -2

          Very well said. Those questions has been covered and answered in detail.

        • Autonomic on 22/03/2023 - 15:00
          +7

          Very few people recommend gold as an investment. It's more a hedge.

          BTC is terrible as a cryptocurrency. If it was released today it would be universally considered a shitcoin. The only reason anyone would buy it is because they believe someone else will purchase it off them for a much higher price.

          BTC is wash traded on exchanges and (along with pretty much the entirety of crypto) is pumped by tether, which is a house of cards.

          • iatnuy on 22/03/2023 - 23:36

            @Autonomic: Please present your evidence that Tether is a house of cards

              • iatnuy on 23/03/2023 - 01:21
                -2

                @Autonomic: No evidence presented by that article sir

                My point is, if there was any evidence, USDT wouldn't be at $1

                • Autonomic on 23/03/2023 - 01:44
                  +9

                  @iatnuy: If you read that and you still think that Tether has any kind of trustworthiness then there's no point discussing this. Tether is run by a former plastic surgeon and a former child actor. They have 13 employees who are all complete nobodies. No one who works in the financial spaces that Tether supposedly store their reserves in have any knowledge of Tether's purchases. Tether faked all their attestations as revealed in their settlement agreement (https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.02.17_-settlement_agreement-_execution_version.b-t_signed-c2_oag_signed.pdf). If you look at section III of that document you'll also see that they regularly did not have 1 to 1 backing. There were several periods where Tether had ZERO reserves. They were found to have been manipulating Bitcoin's prices in 2017 by creating Tethers out of thin air right as the price was falling.

                  • Cobalt_ on 24/03/2023 - 10:27
                    +1

                    @Autonomic: Glad to see some people are aware of the tether fraud and it's role in manipulating crypto prices. Crypto is just as busted as fiat, if not more so given it's a very small amount of unaccountable people who pull the strings behind it.

        • HeWhoKnows on 23/03/2023 - 09:47
          +7
          1. Gold is a physical asset. You can buy it, hold, it, store it, use it for plenty of purposes.
            Crypto is nothing. It doesnt exist in reality.
          2. Gold has been recognised over the ages as a way to store wealth
          3. Plenty of controls in place for gold

          Shows you know nothing about Gold, nor Crypto

          • Malik Nasser on 23/03/2023 - 10:59
            -4

            @HeWhoKnows: Again your answers are just lazy, and dont actually answer the underlying questions.
            1. What is gold based on? The answer you have given can also be said about nearly any physical item (iron ore, rubber, flour, etc…), and yet doesn't actually answer the underlying question.
            2. Who backs gold? Your answer does not answer this. Yes it has been a store of wealth for ages, but what does that have to do with who backs it? Does anyone back gold, or is it a belief system?
            3. What controls are in place for gold? You say there are plenty of controls in place. Well if that is the case, then you should have no problem giving 5 examples?

            You say that I know nothing about gold, but if you have read my replies you would have noted that I have never said anything about gold. I have used gold in my questions, but never stated anything about gold.
            It seems you have erroneously jumped to conclusions in this regard. Perhaps there are other areas of your life where you have also jumped to erroneous conclusions. You should probably have a think about that.

          • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 10:52

            @HeWhoKnows:

            1. "Plenty of purposes" like what? Sitting in a drawer? The majority of gold in the world just sits in a vault and paper which supposedly represent them flies around. Some say these papers don't even go back to a physical piece of gold, because multiple pieces of paper exists for the same bar of gold.
            2. Its recognized as a shiny rock and yes, its a great store of wealth, its not a great generation of wealth. I sold all my gold in 2013 for $1600USD per oz, 10 years later its on the cusp of $2000USD per oz. Not a great wealth generating asset
            3. Not enough, as I heard there are fake paper gold.
            • HeWhoKnows on 26/03/2023 - 19:28

              @techlead: And your AUDs are buying half as much or less over that time

        • bulletbill88 on 24/03/2023 - 08:06
          +2

          Gold has a number of differences compared to bitcoin as a store of wealth, including:
          1) universal recognition of value. This does not apply to crypto.
          2) it is costly to produce and these costs span a multitude of factors which each at any given point in time will be moving in various directions, therefore providing overall stability on the cost of production. Productivity gains in gold production are also reasonably stable over time. Crypto cost of production is essentially cost of computing technology x energy cost, factors which are subject to significant variation and productivity gains over time.
          3) gold has a reserve value outside of a store of wealth in jewellery and electronics among others which provide a reserve value. Crypto has no such utility.

          I’m not advocating any one rush out to buy crypto or gold, just pointing out there are significant differences between the two assets.

          • HeWhoKnows on 26/03/2023 - 19:31

            @bulletbill88: The main difference is that wise people recognise the long term value of gold - we are talking 100s of years!
            Young people only recognise new born digital scams as value - but unfortunately they go as quickly as they come

            How many cryptos have crashed and burnt and taken their holders with them?

      • SpicyStew on 22/03/2023 - 18:17

        The central banking system is the opposite and look what's happening….

  • avoidfullprice on 21/03/2023 - 10:47
    -5

    It is very clear with the strength of Bitcoin recently that many people has now realized fiat currencies are not backed by anything

    Bitcoin is backed by criminal uses, that’s where the strength comes from.

    VHS tape wasn’t a superior format than Betamax, but thanked to the adult entertainment industry for it to thrive.

    Both are facts.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 10:57
      +13

      Bitcoin is backed by criminal uses, that’s where the strength comes from.

      This is a tired line used and debunked many times. It probably has some grain of truth back in 2010-2013. Nowadays, criminals don't use Bitcoin, they use privacy coins like XMR.

      The last time I bought Bitcoin was 10th March, I remember because I started buying when it dipped below $20k USD, now its $27.7k USD, please enlighten me on what "criminal uses" have pumped it 38.5% in the last 11 days?

      • Protractor on 21/03/2023 - 10:58
        -5

        "This is a tired line used and debunked many times"

        You better read up on the Perth Mint scandal then.

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:02
          +7

          Just had a quick look, so the scandal is mainly around the purity of gold?

          https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/current-affairs/per…

          You've just bolstered the case for Bitcoin, it is impossible to create counterfeit Bitcoin. You can fork the chain and call it something else, Bitcoin cash, Bitcoin diamond, whatever you want, but its very easy to tell that its not the real Bitcoin.

          What does this Perth Mint scandal have to do with Bitcoin except to highlight how useful Bitcoin is over gold?

          • Protractor on 21/03/2023 - 12:00
            -1

            @techlead: Not just about purity of gold. People buying gold with 'cryptocurrency', (pretty sure there was ABC news content mentioning Bitcoin, but may have been 'crypto' generally ) and the missing alarm bells at PM.
            https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/perth-mint-sells-gold…

            You could be right. Bitcoin might be the squeaky clean medium of crypto, but there's still a cloud around the sector.
            Perceived or otherwise.

            • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:05
              +3

              @Protractor: There is still a "cloud" around the internet. Whenever the media mentions the "dark net", its always with negative connotations. Having occasionally browsed the dark net, there's a grain of truth in that portrayal though. Its a cesspool, alot of unsavory stuff.

              The amount of spam and phishing emails I get everyday is staggering, doesn't make email as a technology bad. I get contacted by alot of Nigerian princes, I feel so important, they always want to transfer me millions of USD, its wild!

            • nomoneynoproblems on 21/03/2023 - 12:33
              +2

              @Protractor: There is a cloud around everything mate; from banks, cash, gold. It’s a tale old as time. Crims are gonna crim. If this is the argument you’re trying to make, this ain’t it.

              • Protractor on 21/03/2023 - 12:53

                @nomoneynoproblems: You are correct, and If crypto is an easier medium to cover the tracks of criminality,it will flock there.

                "If" it (cryptocurrency) doesn't implode.

                Not even vaguely interested, (unless they want a wigwam for a gooses bridle down payment) but does the crypto safety net match the hype?

            • CommanderCrumbcake on 21/03/2023 - 15:08

              @Protractor: That’s a governance issue not a Bitcoin issue. Same thing if they had paid with cash.

              And that’s exactly what Bitcoin does better than anything else, it’s digital cash.

              • Protractor on 21/03/2023 - 15:35

                @CommanderCrumbcake: Way different to cash. (IMHO)
                So Bitcoin is the Blue Ribbon good guy of the crypto world , and it has suitable governance?
                I ask because, (I don't know) and generally speaking 'governance and oversight' is a joke. (not just crypto) Authorities don't keep up with tech. The govt doesn't even seem to try.
                Sh*t lands, gets popular and the IT world plays catch up.Look at how our private data is handled , and what penalties those in possession of the data receive for breaches, and (worse) for covering it up that breach, for as long as possible.
                I hope that if there's ever any crap like Optus & Medibank etc, heads actually roll, as opposed to incompetent numpties keeping their job.

                https://www.uts.edu.au/about/uts-business-school/our-researc…

      • HeWhoKnows on 26/03/2023 - 19:33

        Central banks debasing thier currencies

    • Cave Fire on 21/03/2023 - 17:21

      You can spot a "no coiner" by the lines they recite: "Crypto is a scam" , "It's used by criminals". Initially, it was used by criminals and Silk road et al. However, you just to find need a persons btc wallet address and you have detailed information all of their transactions.

    • smartazz104 on 22/03/2023 - 11:53

      VHS tape wasnt a superior format than Betamax, but thanked to the adult entertainment industry for it to thrive.

      Porn was available on Betamax.

  • Protractor on 21/03/2023 - 10:57
    +3

    "who else is onboard"

    China,Musk Trump,Putin….

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 10:59
      +13

      Musk sold 75% of Tesla's Bitcoin holdings, as far as I know from financial discloses Tesla has not increased their Bitcoin holdings.

      Bitcoin and cryptos are still banned in China, although if they are buying its a good sign.

      That's the beauty of a censorship resistant and permissionless network, Trump, Putin or anyone else can buy it if they want.

  • Jimothy Wongingtons on 21/03/2023 - 11:04
    +3

    me rn

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:12
      +2

      Haha, not going to lie, last few months, when Bitcion was well below $20k, I was buying and inhaling hard on the hopium, but as demonstrated over the last 10 days as the banking system implodes and Bitcoin explode up, I'm off the hopium supply now, it has become reality.

      • Jimothy Wongingtons on 21/03/2023 - 11:16

        i need more hopium. Wont be ok until eth hits 5k..going to be a lonngggg wait

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:19

          ETH will hit $5k USD for sure in this up coming bull run (not financial advice). Its just a matter of time.

          • Jimothy Wongingtons on 21/03/2023 - 11:38

            @techlead: 5k aud *

            not impossible..but i would be stoked to get out at even -5% let alone break even HAHA

      • freefall101 on 21/03/2023 - 11:29
        +4

        Not entirely sure this is reality or just a big pump and dump scheme by those talking about bitcoin going to the moon again on the back of the SVB/Credit Suisse collapse.

        Will be interesting to see what happens if all the prophecies of hyperinflation, banks failing, etc don't play out. Anything that can rise 30%+ in a few days can fall just as quickly.

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:28

          This is my third Bitcoin cycle. I knew about Bitcoin since 2009 and first bought it in 2013.

          Very true, crypto is very volatile, but I think the main narrative that fiat currencies are falling in value, hence the Bitcoin price will go up relative to that because it has a hard cap, there can ever only be 21 mil Bitcoin, you can't conjure it up out of thin air like with fiat currencies.

          I don't have a crystal ball, but I think there will be a bull run around the Bitcoin halvening in 2024, like every other halvening before it. History do not repeat, it rhythms. I've positioned myself financially to take advantage of this anticipated bull run. I could be wrong of course. Its similar to those buying property why do they think it will go up?

          • freefall101 on 21/03/2023 - 12:44
            +4

            @techlead: I mined bitcoin in 2009. That doesn't make me some kind of magical economic genius. I made money off it but I never actually thought it was a sensible investment.

            The idea that there's a limited amount therefore it has to keep going up is a very simplistic one because it completely ignores the demand side of things. Property goes up because people need somewhere to live, our population is increasing and newer properties tend to be further from centralised locations and existing amenities so they go up faster than new builds. You can't just buy any land and bank on it going up faster than inflation though. Gold is a wealth store and a hedge to inflation, but it's actively used and mined with helps limit it and keep it going.

            Where is the demand side of bitcoin going to come from? Going up over halvings makes sense, but what keeps the base price of it up? Bitcoin has become the main coin in the market, but there's plenty of coins out there that have and will die off - hard cap or not.

  • pegaxs on 21/03/2023 - 11:18
    +23

    Banks are usually holders of assets or liens over assets… Crypto is holders of "thoughts and prayers"… While I do have some crypto holdings, it's mainly for the lulz and playing the market like a game of roulette.

    Always thought it was ironic how the crypto shills are always crapping on fiat currency, yet, if you want to get in or out of crypto, it needs to be in… you guessed it, good, old fashioned fiat.

    • EightImmortals on 21/03/2023 - 11:22
      +1

      Yes more people need to be using crypto instead of hoarding it. (wherever you can)

      • I like freestuff on 22/03/2023 - 16:03
        +3

        When you have to pay a transaction (which is currently the equivalent of ~ $3.7AUD) for every single transaction it is not very attractive to be used to buy stuff. Coupled with the fact that it can randomly spike, went all the way up to ~$90 in April 2021.

    • Chandler on 21/03/2023 - 14:42

      liens over assets

      And here's the issue. Holding liens is fine until the payments you start demanding on them aren't forthcoming.

      • pegaxs on 23/03/2023 - 22:54

        Then you collect on those liens and take back the assets and sell them to at least recover something…

        Just what can you take back and sell in a crypto market? Ask all the people who lost their money in FTX. What was it that Sam owned? A beat up Camry… sure that will cover a good portion of what FTX lost…

        • Chandler on 23/03/2023 - 23:48
          +2

          Yeah but isn't one of the issues with modern banking that they hold more liabilities than they do assets? The whole lending based on future interest - much like businesses now are getting credit against raised invoices.

  • Crow K on 21/03/2023 - 11:23
    +19

    So your position is because the banks were full of fiat currency when they had the run, crisis etc, it's a fault of the fiat?
    That if the magic wand was waved ten years ago and SVB was full of crypto, such a run wouldn't/couldn't have happened?
    Was FTX's failure because of filthy fiat as well?

    Characterising fiat as only backed by trust (but crypto somehow being more than that) seems a tad disingenuous too. Fiat is backed by the issuing government (and its military and taxes). Saying 'nothing but trust' backs the AUD is like saying 'Australia might disappear soon guys', isn't it?

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:35
      -2

      I don't think the recent bank collapses are solely due to fiat currency, it is the entire system, how it works.

      I don't think banks holding crypto would be the answer. From what I have read, regulations and capital requirements was relaxed for SVB and Signature bank. I'm sure as more details come to light, we'd know more. There are always multiple causes to every disaster, its rarely due to a single event, its usually a series of failures.

      My point is, the system needs to change, we are just printing money whenever a crisis hits and nothing is changed to resolve the root cause, eg with more regulation. Credit Suisse has been "dying" a slow death for years.

      Market cap of Credit Suisse over the years:
      2006 $70B USD
      2016 $30B USD
      2022 $10B USD
      2023 $3.25B USD? with a whole load of Central bank guarantees to limit UBS' losses.

      • Crow K on 21/03/2023 - 11:38
        +1

        My point is, the system needs to change, we are just printing money whenever a crisis hits and nothing is changed to resolve the root cause

        I guess. The same could be said about gun laws in America. The system needs to change, but how would you do it outside of a complete reset? They have so many guns out there, there's vested interests ensuring they stay out there etc. You can't have a 'simple' Aussie buyback, etc.

        Is it possible that the fiat system is so deeply entrenched that it's incapable of being changed so drastically - and thus 'alternate' systems like crypto are just a pipe dream?
        A speculative bubble pipe dream with no rational backing on why it 'must' replace fiat in some capacity one day?

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:45

          It depends on how entrenched it is. Gun rights in America are enshrined in the US constitution. An activist Supreme court can impose restrictions, but nothing can change the fundamental right to "bare arms as part of a well regulated militia" except with a constitutional amendment. There's too much division in the US, the threshold to change the constitution is too high. 2/3 vote in the house of representative or 2/3 states request a convention. Then 75% of states must vote in favour at the convention in order for an amendments to pass. There's zero chance of that happening in the current political climate.

          The same can't be said of the financial system. Its not enshrined in the constitution, it can be shared by consumer demand and behaviour. Look at the adoption of crypto, more and more people are using it, even countries are adopting it, so as adoption increases, the push for change will get stronger. Banks own crypto, JPM spoke out against Bitcoin but secretly they were pushing the price down to buy cheap.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcgA-hMAozI

          • Crow K on 21/03/2023 - 11:47

            @techlead: Thanks for the discussion. You argued your point fairly, though you haven't convinced me. (But perhaps that's just a 'me' thing and the hairs on the back of my neck standing up at the Emperor's New Clothes, etc).

            • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:08
              +1

              @Crow K: Crypto is not for everyone, like any investment, before you invest, you should understand the risks and be comfortable. I knew crypto would be a roller coaster, it was a baptism of fire when I first bought, I was down 60%, it pretty much dropped immediately after I bought for $800USD each.

              You just need to be able to stomach the drops. If not, a term deposit or investment in property may be more suitable for you. (Not financial advice).

        • Protractor on 21/03/2023 - 12:02
          -1

          The root cause is too many customers, not enough resources.
          Infinite growth model reliant on finite resources, on a planet heading for the wall.

      • mun4 on 22/03/2023 - 12:02
        +1

        People have short memory. Remember FTX?

        Poorly run companies aren't anything new. The plethora of money laundering scandals Credit Suisse faced in the last decade already gave it a bad name. Companies like CS are debt laden and have managed to survive this long thanks to the low rates over the past decade. The people who bought their CoCos were willing to take on the risk and pray. Just like crypto buyers.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 12:09
          +1

          People have short memory. Remember FTX?

          FTX is the same lesson as Mt Gox, Not your keys, NOT your crypto. I have to admit, I'm guilty of that, I was complacent, I did have a close shave with FTX and Celsius. No more, I'm sticking to that golden rule more vigorously now.

          Poorly run companies aren't anything new.

          Totally agree, companies like FTX and Mt Gox are not unique nor specific to crypto. Therefore their existence is not an indication that crypto is inherently bad. Just like scammers using crypto doesn't make crypto bad. Do you know the most used currency is for drug dealing? Its not crypto, its fiat currency, doesn't that make fiat currency bad?

          The people who bought their CoCos were willing to take on the risk and pray. Just like crypto buyers.

          You are just describing investing in general. What do you think property investors do? They also risk and pray that the market moves in their flavor. Same goes for shares etc. No investment is without risk, not even cash under your mattress, because then you'd have risk of theft and a definite risk of the rats of inflation eating your cash.

          • mun4 on 22/03/2023 - 12:38
            -1

            @techlead:

            Totally agree, companies like FTX and Mt Gox are not unique nor specific to crypto. Therefore their existence is not an indication that crypto is inherently bad.

            No, FTX and MtGox aren't only poorly run companies, but more importantly they were poorly run companies in an unregulated market. Credit Suisse at least had government backing and their books were clear enough. Like you said CS's demise didn't happen overnight. Their debts had been haunting them for years and they were over leveraged. No one knew anything about FTX and Mt Gox.

            No investment is without risk, not even cash under your mattress, because then you'd have risk of theft and a definite risk of the rats of inflation eating your cash.

            It's about risk and return. Look at BTC for the past year. Started the year at 60k and then plateaued at 20k. If you bought at 60k, you'd need a 300%+ rise to make it back where you were. Buy and hold is not a strategy.

            • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 12:49
              +1

              @mun4:

              It's about risk and return. Look at BTC for the past year. Started the year at 60k and then plateaued at 20k. If you bought at 60k, you'd need a 300%+ rise to make it back where you were. Buy and hold is not a strategy.

              This is like any other investment. Tesla was at $381, now its $197, so it needs to almost double for you to break even.

              Bitcoin's 12 month high was $47400USD on 29th March 2022. I haven't done the maths, but I didn't buy much from March to May. Then starting May to July, I bought around every fortnight, then from Nov till early March, I bought more aggressively, so I'm very sure I'm green for the year. I'm on a paper profit for the buys I made in this 12 month period at today's price, so its working out pretty well.

              • mun4 on 23/03/2023 - 22:19
                -2

                @techlead: Tesla is a company of value and have assets that can be sold off. Crypto is nothing but thin air.

                • techlead on 23/03/2023 - 22:31
                  +1

                  @mun4: The market thinks this "thin air" is worth $27700USD at the moment.

                  • mun4 on 24/03/2023 - 13:40
                    -1

                    @techlead: Yes. Crypto has a price but no real value. We can trade crypto all day long and inflate its price. Just like how we could trade some random penny stock. It's a game of musical chair with an enormous downside. Trading isn't an investment.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:38
      +2

      FTX and Celsius failure, in my opinion is due to fraud and greed, which exists in any industry, we've seen many corporate collapses due to that, nothing new and not specific to crypto.

    • based on 22/03/2023 - 18:10

      SVB was full of crypto, such a run wouldn't/couldn't have happened?

      Crypto couldn't handle the volume of transactions in bank run 🤣

  • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:29
    -2

    Crypto is holders of "thoughts and prayers"

    Thoughts and prayers can also be called "trust". What is backing fiat currency? Also thoughts and prayers.

    Banks are usually holders of assets or liens over assets

    What happens when these "assets or liens over assets" lose value? That's exactly what happened to SVB, they bought "high quality" treasury bonds, albeit when interest rates were at 1-1.5%, now that its over 3%, their value has decreased. When their customers wanted their money back, they had to sell those "high quality" treasury bonds at a huge loss, hence it collapsed.

    When you invest, you are "playing the market". This is why Australia has an housing problem, its because we have introduced gambling/roulette into housing.

    if you want to get in or out of crypto, it needs to be in… you guessed it, good, old fashioned fiat.

    Do you understand the lifecycle of new technology? There are many examples of this, the transition from horse drawn carriages to cars, the growth of the internet. Let's take the latter since its more relevant for most people. Back in the 1980s when the internet was just in its infancy, the communication networks catered for analogue audio calls, the infrastructure which were built (phone lines, exchanges, switches) were built for calls, so in order for the internet to work, they had to utilize these infrastructure, which made it cumbersome and hard to use. That's why the internet in its infancy were mainly in the realm of geeks, who can tinker with modems to get it to work and when it does, its not very fast, 14.4kps, 28.8kps etc. As the internet grew, new infrastructure was built until nowadays, voice calls are running off infrastructure dedicated to the internet, VoIP.

    So the point is, there is always a transition period where the new technology uses the rails/infrastructure of the old technology and it may seem cumbersome, but it will improve. Crypto has come very far since 2013, it is so much easier to transact with crypto nowadays and it will only get easier and easier.

  • ThithLord on 21/03/2023 - 11:30

    Thoughts on Loopring L2?

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:37

      I don't have any, however the use case for Loopring L2 is good, to enable DEXes on ETH to run more smoothly.

      After the spectacular collapse of CEX, I think DEXes will have more attention this coming bull run.

  • Drakesy on 21/03/2023 - 11:30
    +8

    It's a dead cat bounce for bitcoin.
    There's still nothing tangible attached to it.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:36
      +1

      Time will tell.

      Most of the value in Bitcoin is its censorship resistant and permissionless network.

      Not all things of value are tangible.

      • Drakesy on 21/03/2023 - 11:40
        +3

        Lets not forget the exact benefits that led people down crypto - uncontrolled market etc. are the exact reasons why so many tokens are subject to manipulation and ultimately their demise as FIAT banks don't have control over it, rich people who can manipulate it do.

        The only thing bitcoin has going for it is its name and the fact the news jerks itself off every time it skyrockets.
        Many people have been burnt by bitcoin, its not all roses

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:46
          +1

          Many people have been burnt by bitcoin, its not all roses

          How are they "burnt"? Bitcoin scams? Because they bought at $69k USD?

          No investment is all roses. How you started seeing all these sob stories about people who invested in property but "lost everything"?

          • Drakesy on 21/03/2023 - 11:47
            +2

            @techlead: FTX and Celsius…

            • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:48
              +1

              @Drakesy: Corporate greed and fraud (in my opinion as legal cases are ongoing), this is not unique nor specific to crypto.

              • Drakesy on 21/03/2023 - 11:48
                +2

                @techlead: It's because their fictional coins lost their fictional value.

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