Still Have Not Sold Your Property Portfolio? Good News Then

ALesha77 on 11/03/2023 - 21:55
Last edited 12/03/2023 - 00:38

Still have not sold your property portfolio?
Good news - your lender might soon do it for you.
Especially if your lender is a smallish shadowy non-bank with exposure to long duration paper and liar loans - should they fail then someone else will need to pick up the tab. And the next question would be - what do I want to get paid for it as a new owner of your mortgage? And how do I value my new book? And few a few steps after - can those proud and levered to the gills multi-million debt holders pay their due on the collateral that have lost 15-20%?

I told you that UK gilts were the canary in the tightening financial hole - most did not get it then.
https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/730219

Now, SVB is the most recent victim of the leveraged exposure to the long duration - 12th largest US bank, for a minute…
Think about it, this was not your aussie favorite lender of the year "Auburn Mortgage and Loan kiosk" where they also cook gorgeous shaver-ma between loan applications.

SVB had a run on and collapsed because of their book that they had mark to market.
I can guarantee you that this weekend all financial whales will be very busy with their spreadsheets scrutinizing every collateral on every book of almost every lender in the developed world.

Have you ever thought of what is on the books of your lender? And what you property collateral really worth to those who gave money to your lender? And what it is worth now with rates that have exponentially gone higher?

Sleep tight.

Financial

Comments

  • CodeXD on 11/03/2023 - 21:56
    +10

    Here we go again…

      • bemybubble on 11/03/2023 - 22:11
        +1

        TLDR Version

        Here we go again…

  • orangetrain on 11/03/2023 - 22:14
    +1

    Is it legal for a bank to sell property if its not in arrears?

    • 7ekn00 on 11/03/2023 - 22:29
      +11

      Nope, not in Australia, but fear mongering is fun!

      Will people lose their property due to rate rise / inflation squeeze? Sure

      Will lenders call loans on owners that are not in arrears? They legally can't, but it wouldn't be an ALesha77 post without buckets of hyperbole and FUD ;)

      • ALesha77 on 12/03/2023 - 00:14
        -2

        Read below, you need to think a few levels up the ladder to see the full picture.
        Looking at your comments - you are surely not capable of that but always here with your buckets of wisdom

        • 7ekn00 on 12/03/2023 - 13:43
          +2

          And looking at your posts, you have a track record of none of your predictions based on your own opinion coming true ;)

          But the fear mongering is fun right?!? At least there is that!

        • MrMarket on 14/03/2023 - 14:57

          doesn't matter if your lender goes bust, someone else will take over the mortgage book and as long as you are not default no one going to do anything.

          the whole point of mortgage back security is someone got a bunch of capital and they just want the interest, so as long are you up to date with your repayment no one cares.
          Even if they slides and dices these mortgage back security in all sort of flavour, it the traders
          and bond holders are the one that wear the loss. They can not touch your properties if you are up to date with your repayment.

          you can not recall loan on residential mortgage at will in Australia PERIOD
          there is a provision in commercial lending for loan recall but not residential properties

    • ALesha77 on 12/03/2023 - 00:13
      -1

      It is not about selling your property - it is about lenders falling and someone needing to pick up the tab.
      Next question would be - what do I want to get paid for it as a new owner of your mortgage?
      And what other tricks I might want to play on my new books?
      And few a few steps after - can those proud and levered to the gills mortgage owners pay their due?

      • MrMarket on 14/03/2023 - 15:01

        ignore everything you read on line and US based stuff

        in Australia if you are not default or in arrear of your repayment no one can touch your residential properties
        doesn't matter if there are 100 new owner change hand due to banks going bust

  • KaTst3R on 11/03/2023 - 22:41
    +6

    You must be such great fun at parties.

    • ALesha77 on 12/03/2023 - 00:14

      Oh, you knew :)

  • altomic on 11/03/2023 - 22:46
    +10

    I'm more concerned about the ongoing ramifications of the collapse of tulip speculation market in the Dutch Republic during the 17th century.

    • ALesha77 on 12/03/2023 - 00:15

      How old are you?

  • Some Human on 11/03/2023 - 23:47

    As Atomic Shrimp would say:

    Okay.

  • dcep on 12/03/2023 - 01:01

    I heard Sydney house prices gone up instead of going down.

  • Lunarboogie on 12/03/2023 - 05:52

    To all the doomsday prophets, this wobble too will pass.

    If anything, I love it when folk like OP get scared as it means the rest of us can get greedy.

  • SBOB on 12/03/2023 - 06:43
    +1

    What portion of SVBs books were property related, vs their other avenues such as crypto and venture capital funding?
    And which of those asset lending streams so you think was behind their failure?
    What do you think the risk profile of those different streams are?

    And you think that asset allocation is directly comparable to more "conventional" banking lending books, such as lenders here in your example and real estate mortgages?

    Well, if you say so……

    I assume right now, you're out buying up options on lenders books, aka 'The Big Short' movie.

    Again, hows the internet speed on your private island, what with all your prior predictions being spot on and the millions you've made?

  • parsimonious one on 12/03/2023 - 10:17
    +3

    Someone is off their meds again 🤦‍♂️

  • payless69 on 12/03/2023 - 10:47

    Why worry about Murdoch sewage if you can buy CBA or at least part of it?
    Just sold my MQG in time and are laughing all the way.

  • mbck on 12/03/2023 - 11:49
    +1

    But svb has a lot of exposure to crypto.

    I'm sure you're not incompetent, but does your 'analysis' not count for that?

    Or you're just fear mongering?

    You've written so much, yet there's really not much essence in there.

    You should live outdoors a little more.

  • brendanm on 12/03/2023 - 18:10

    Here's Henny Penny again.

  • El-Rhi on 14/03/2023 - 21:52

    Have you ever thought of what is on the books of your lender?

    No. As a borrower I don’t care about the risk profile of the lender. You should ask the same question for depositors and share holders…

    And what you property collateral really worth to those who gave money to your lender?

    It is worth whatever the prevailing market conditions say it’s worth

    And what it is worth now with rates that have exponentially gone higher?

    As above.

    It will probably be worth 10% more next year as rates drop again.

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