https://www.mortgagebusiness.com.au/economy/16851-anz-tips-4…
Economists from ANZ have joined Westpac in betting the Reserve Bank will make a sharp rise in the cash rate next week, to clamp down on inflation.
Previously, the major bank had forecast a 25-bp increase for the cash rate in June, but it has pivoted to predicting the Reserve Bank of Australia will opt for a 40-bp lift at its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday (7 June)….
Yep, can't say "winter's coming" for next three months
.
winter (2023) is coming
Yes, the 21st of June is approaching … and it will be winter :-)
@LFO: Why does Australia use 1st of the month for season changes when the rest of the world uses 21/22?
Googled my question:
In Australia the seasons are taken to start at the beginning of the month so that winter begins on 1 June and spans June, July and August. Supposedly, this is because in the early days of the Colony the NSW (New South Wales Corps) Corps changed from their summer to their winter uniforms at the beginning of the month.
Sounds very scientific.
Sounds very scientific.
LOL, it is …
Actually, I read an "explanation" from BOM and they acknowledge the date anomaly exist so it is easier/simpler to collect meteorological data per month rather than a "complex data collation" from a real astronomical season to the next.
Yes, bad habits from colonial days are still here ;-)
Are those analysts underpaid though?
probably not
if only there was a more definitive answer…
dont temp me i will post another series of are they 'really' under paid - and i dont think anyone wants that….
@Trying2SaveABuck: Interesting concept… from Big 4 to neo banks.. High yield investment vehicles to EV adoption..
@AndyC1: if i got 15 upvotes on the above comment i'd do it otherwise it will just subject me to more complainers and moaners
here is a request for someone to put a post up and you didn't bite
wtf dude
getting to many complaints from OP which is fair enough dont want to bother people if they find it annoying
Gold
Ok.
It’s perspective really.
Rate will be 75bpts. Just that it will be 7.5 times than the emergency rate of 10pts since the pandemic, at which people are getting mortgages up to and beyond their limit.
Don’t forget RBA May minutes suggested they modelled next year economic situation with 200bpts.
Markets are pricing in 350bps rise
nice
Which market is pricing in a 350 BPS?
Average consensus.
RBA themselves forecast 250bps - RBA has a woeful history of economic forecasting (although I think there may be intent behind it so as not to 'spook the horses')
@rektrading: …interest rate markets, which are boldly assuming the RBA will lift its cash rate to north of 3.5%…
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/rba-to-hike-by-25bps-t…
…Financial markets have a much more aggressive view: they are pricing in a terminal RBA cash rate of 3.6%…
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-great-aussie-house…
@Boogerman: https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/12084047/redir
https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/12093703/redir
https://www.ozbargain.com.au/comment/12092287/redir
Everyone has an opinion on where it goes up, down or chops sideways, but this one seems to have a cult-like Jesus.
Soon it'll be "Over 9000" basis points.
Lol just kidding.
It can't be demand driven inflation…. with low wage rise, not like people are spending madly.
It's almost like something has happened in the last couple of years? Endless printing of money, and devaluation of the dollar perhaps?
Not so sure. It was packed at Westfield today…
That's because no one can afford to get their house. Spend the days at Westfield until winter blows over.
You been to Sydney Vivid this year? It started 2 Fridays ago and it's been the busiest 2 weekends for businesses ever. Plenty of people got cash to splash.
Supply is being artificially strangled to raise costs across the board.
The Middle/Lower class are being squeezed of every last dollar they have
Same here. If many price rises are passing on increased supply costs (say like transport prices), I don't think a shop suddenly getting less money because their customers have less to spend is going to lower their prices by a decent margin.
I can't imagine a petrol station dropping their prices because people have less to spend, or ColesWorth dropping prices on some basic staples because of this.
If people weren't spending madly places like hardly normal and JB would not be raking in huge profits.
Seriously? These so-called economics guru's have absolutely no idea in forecasting interest rates or FX rates, simply because the economic dynamics are constantly changing.
Yes, because we should totally listen to you, having predicted 15 of the last 3 property price corrections, right?
No- totally listen to me because I have over 30 years experience employed in the global financial markets
Ahhh, yes, because all the other gurus are bad, but you're the only good guru. Got it.
The arguement on them going up is a no brainer
The argument exists on how much they will go up by total and the monthly increase
But I agree the experts have no idea on the 2nd point I made above, just like how the experts have no idea on house price increase or decrease.
The last 10 years of peaks and troughs in housing have been so far off the mark regarding predictions…. I mean at one stage they said during covid it could crash by up to 30% but instead went up by 30%…so they were wrong by 60%. I dont recall seeing any economists predicting a rise in covid all were decreases
One Nation or Palmer voter. Amirite?
Only 40 points?
40points This Week
Rekt. 😆
People will sell stonks before they sell their homes.
Record high company profits, companies blaming "inflation", but wages still stagnant or barely moving.
We are being sold a lie……even if we cant control it. This is just peak stage capitalism, where profit increases and growth must happen every year, without fail. So how do you do that when people have no money to spend, just increase the price on things. Instead of selling 2 apples for $1 each, you sell 1 apple for $2 each. Eventually it has to run out and companies cant be constantly year after year posting a new record.
Look at the top oil companies in the world…….record profits, record high fuel prices in Australia……….but not record high crude oil prices (2008).
Also supply and demand causing inflation. Things are not all of a sudden more expensive to make, but there is a stranglehold on the supply side (and when your talking oil, we all know why there's a strangle on supply)
Easy fix.
Buy hard assets and don't eat apples.
Avos ok?
Only if you smash them. I live in Melbourne btw.
@ThithLord: I wasn’t doing a I live in a better place than you. It was a sarcastic reference to the so called coffee culture in Melbourne where smashed avo has been the butt of jokes. I’ve lived in Queensland too. So would be more likely to say I’m a red neck if I was commenting from there. Again, sarcasm aimed at me.
@MontyMacaw: Enjoying a 'parmi' no doubt.
ps. I'm a Melbournian who moved up to Brisbane 8 years ago….
There are 2 ways to increase “profitability”, a simplified way to look at it is.
Income
—————— = Profit
Expenditures
1) Work hard to make and sell more stuff, to increase income. Increase the numerator.
2) Reduce expenditure. (Eg. Wage freeze, hiring freeze, reduce headcount/work more hours, offshoring, etc…) Decrease the denominator.
Which one do we think is easier for businesses to increase profit YoY… without selling more items, but profits are up.
Exactly, reduce the expenses which negatives impacts the people who physically make the goods, but puts more money in the pocket of the management team or as conservatives call them "job creators"
Then you turn australia into america, where you erode the middle class and create new class below the existing lower class. Everyone middle and below drops a rung. Everyone above middle goes up.
Trickle down, "Reaganonomics", etc. All failed policies.
Trickle down
💵 flows up, not down.
And the same thing is happening everywhere.
It's peak clown world is what it is.
Should go up by 100bps
Zzzzzzz
its very late. the interest rates should be rocket high.
Gov need to stop artificially inflating economy, businesses should be running on actual assets that they have not instead on credit lines.
This is make living cost more affordable ultimately. Deflation will come once. I'll welcome that time when I could actually be able to afford a home outright.
Was there a question here, or just a PSA? Everything I've read has pointed to a 100 basis point increase over the next two months, so if we only get 40pts this month, then expect next month to be 60pts.
Man I'm hoping the RBA will buck expectation, but I'm already factoring in this additional cost to my budget.
Inflation is a necessary evil in the capitalist system. It gives the illusion of creating wealth but in actual fact the problems are the same now as they were 40 years ago only the numbers are bigger. So you get a pay rise to shut you up - for now. Then the cycle starts again.
Inflation is a necessary evil in the capitalist system.
Inflation is theft and is not necessary for capitalism to work.
Proof of work is what's needed and not this social freeload system of proof of existence.
And yet there it is and always has been. People used to be paid in parts of a penny. No it’s in tens of thousands of pennies yet the world operates the same fiscally for the average person working a regular job.
One of the biggest issues is housing. If people had housing sorted, we wouldn’t care as much about anything.
yawn, just 40bp?
One thing is for certain… right or wrong, ANZ’s profits will continue to soar. They care not about you
I heard it was more likely to be 75 points
Won’t hurt the expensive exotic car buyers and big spenders though… they got cash coming out of their arses.
I’m sure they worked real hard for it, more hard than the struggling battlers
May be struggling battlers should ask for a pay rise or look for a job with better working conditions?
0.50bp rise
goes to show how dire the inflation situation is
Looks like target to 3.5% by end of year is very likely.
June = 0.85%
July = 1.35%
Aug = 1.85%
Sep = 2.35%
Oct = 2.85%
Nov = 3.35%
Dec = 3.50%
No way.
They will pause after another couple of hikes to measure effect otherwise recession will 12 months earlier than expected.
Okay let's revise the model.
June = 0.85%
July = 0.85%
Aug = 0.85%
Sep = 2.35%
Oct = 2.35%
Nov = 2.35%
Dec = 3.50%
There you go two rate hikes.
mate the RBA has already signalled consistent rate rises til xmas
0.50% will be the norm
@Jason Genova: Dude the RBA doesn't even know how much it'll increase to let alone the exact amount. Next one can be 25,50,100,150,200bps etc or even zero.
@Jason Genova: I hope you are wrong for the housing and stock markets.
I suggest July 1.1% August 1.35% Sept 1.50% then a pause.
Have kids who both bought house 5 years back and would love to see them hold their much appreciated value value.
2 I also care about the people way overcommitted who will lose their homes.
Goes to show how dumb so many commenters are
keep them coming, need to go back to standard 6-7% so asset price can properly be value
cheap money throw valuation out of quack.
50 basis point rise. Here we go. Let's see how property prices fare. To the moon?
To goblin town if you ask me. But the thing I have seen is that people don't sell if the prices are not right. Supply also disappears.
I have little doubt we'll see another 50 points next month, but after that it remains to be seen.
RBA could get cold feet as the economy suffers and borrowers complain, pausing rate rises. The logic may be: Ukraine/Russia war is causing these inflation problems, and a temporary change to the 2 to 3% target band may be prudent at this time. I'm not saying it's correct or justified, but I wouldn't be surprised.
50bp every month til christmas is my guess
"Every 0.25 BPS rate hike will reduce the GDP by 0.40%." Data from someone that isn't me.
How's people doing with their large debts? Remember, owning your own home is not an asset, its a liability. You can't sell those bricks and grass for food, yet you still need to pay those council bills.
The definition of an asset is something which gives you a positive cashflow, money in your pocket, not suck money out.
The definition of an asset is something which gives you a positive cashflow, money in your pocket, not suck money out.
The hardest asset ever created at its core has no cash flow unless it's being lent out.
Asset is asset and
cash flow is cash flow you can't said something that doesn't produce cash flow isn't an asset
only in the world of those finance promoter that decided to change the definition of an asset.
An asset is anything that is owned by you whether it generates cash flow or not is irrelevant, a chair, a computer, a house, a car they all considered an asset
in case of a house it is not your asset until it paid off or when you sell it money in hand > debt then it also considered an asset.
as long as you can sell it for some value minus the liability and you got money left over they all considered an asset
So it's 50 basis points.. I don't get it. Are these political tactics?
They reduce the rates first and make housing expensive because house prices rise and investors pay premium to buy and rent it out. Investors buy it, now rates go up and investors raise rent because they have to pay more to the bank.
It's a lose lose to be honest. I seriously don't get it.
Its short sightedness from the RBA. They think property prices going up is good because it creates the "wealth effect" for property owners. Property owners "feel" richer as the houses they live in and potentially invest in increase in value, which encourages them to spend more, buy more coffee, groceries, luxury items. I can definitely attest to this, when crypto was booming and my portfolio was going up by millions, I spent a lot more, on things I don't usually buy, like organic meats. Bought it once, can't taste the difference, will never buy again.
Don't forget the RBA said the next rate rise will be in 2024. Have a read of this article from a property shill, it did not age well. https://propertyupdate.com.au/rba-confirms-yet-again-no-rate….
"Read my lips – no RBA rate rise any time soon." lmao
All those home buyers relying on legit government information to make an informed decision - then rug pull.
And ANZ got it wrong by 20%
Well, no one has a crystal ball and you can't hold the RBA accountable for saying the first rate rise will in in 2024 and reneging on that. They can just say circumstances changed.
I think a rational person would have known a rate rise would come earlier than 2024, maybe I'm different because I have an Economics degree. I never believed the RBA when it said the first rate rise will be in 2024. I still remember when I first heard it, I laugh out loud and said its BS, just watch, we will definitely see rate rising before 2024, its impossible in my mind and I've been proven right.
Plus home buyers should rely on other sources in addition to the government, because governments can change as we have witnessed in May, so don't blindly believe what the government says.
I can't believe it's June already.