AUD to USD is nearing 50c, similar outlook for euro, cad and many other economies. around the same range as what it was during the last GFC. What the hell is wrong is AUD? nobody wants it, nobody trusts it. I find this a disgrace. I'll get paid in USD/EURO/CAD instead.
What the hell is wrong with AUD it is a disgrace
happirt on 27/03/2020 - 14:21
Last edited 27/03/2020 - 14:23
Last edited 27/03/2020 - 14:23
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I fear they might be going a bit stir crazy from the social isolation…
"Man yells at cloud"
Hey I’m keen to here reviews penalty box premium from watchnerd and the guy who use reply on all those poor drop shipper posts. :-(
and the guy who use reply on all those poor drop shipper posts.
That just got irritating the more you saw it, and sometimes they smashed reps who didn't deserve it
Strangely I haven’t noticed so many of those post since they have been perma binned.
@GoldenDragon888: Drop-shipper posts? Yes, they exist and either get negged to oblivion, or the reps remove the post because it breaks the rules.
That's the thing, PJC was quick to jump in and comment just to comment, but wouldn't report the post. So when a post was "up to 20% off" for instance, with no examples, mods just deleted it, making his comment pointless and redundant.
@GoldenDragon888: No, he didn't. A report on a post goes a lot further than a random comment against it
@spackbace: Sorry I think we are talking past each other. I was trying to say if he just reported it I wouldn’t have seen them. I agree that reporting would have been better.
like emails/new accounts are hard to make ..
Penalty Box (pointless)
Simple.
No one needs anything from us (Australia) at the price it would effectively cost them (ie. after conversion).
Ie. If we were asking for USD25/hr for our labour (just one of the many commodities), with the current lack of demand, the effective price needs to drop therefore our dollar drops.
Amongst other things, and just as significant, is the interest rate. People buying AUD to keep in Aussie banks may not find the interest rate (of practically nothing) to be worth the trade of for our perceived stability.
Not true. As long as I am earning non-AUD, I need that cheap AUD labor from Australia to offshore my workload!
If you were working for an Australian company, and getting payed in US $, you'd just be getting half the amount of US $.
You just said it: 'cheap' AUD. They won't need our labor if it is a strong AUD.
The low AUD has very little to do with the cost of manufacturing in Australia.
Labour exist in much more than just manufacturing. Everything from mining to agriculture is significantly influenced by the cost of labour.
Everything from mining to agriculture
Yes and even when the AUD was at 70c most of the last 12 months countries were still buying everything we could export. There were barely any Agri/NR businesses that were producing commodities that weren't getting snapped up in the global market. You could only argue in the inferior products where there is a lot of supply in the world that maybe they weren't getting the best price they wanted to, but they were still selling into the market above the expense it took to get it to market.
Canada GDP $1.741 trillion
EU GDP $18.8 trillion
Australia GDP $1.376 trillionAlong with Australia's interest rate at just 0.25%, what are you expecting?
i'll be looking to hire people in australia soon to off shore some workload for cheap labor
That's why having a weak AUD will attract more foreign investments and help boost the economy. I remember back in 2012 when AUD was stronger than USD, I kept getting comments from overseas that labour cost in Australia is so expensive.
The last thing we need in Australia is for China to come in and hoover up the scraps remaining from our economy which they've destroyed due to the CCP's duplicitous behaviour which allowed this virus to spread so ferociously around the world. We need the FIRB to be extra vigilant during this depressed period, not open the floodgates to allow China to buy what's left of Australia.
That will be Chinese investment but they dont invest they buy outright and like to own the complete supply china, inc moving profits offshore to avoid taxes!
Basically were hanging a GIANT for sale, GOING CHEAP sign out to the cause of our troubles. Its like being married to an abusive spouse who beats you but then buys you a cheese burger!
Our laws need to change while we still can,
1) we need to demand gold for anything we export; fk the dollar, yen… if its not gold, sod off
2) we need to make it so all property and companies must be 51% owned by AUSTRALIANS (born here, not immergrated)
3) unhook for the US$, its going to be the death of us! Come on, put in your big boy pants and maybe shrug off the queen toomum has a saying, LOVE MANY, TRUST FEW, LEARN TO PADDLE YOUR OWN CANOE
@srhardy: Why the difference between migrant and native-born Australians? They are all citizens.
In case you've forgotten, every "white" Aussie is a descendant of an immigrant.
I am an immigrant Australian. Tell me exactly why I shouldn't be allowed to own my own property/company.
@jatyap: the difference is allegiance. it might come as a surprise but you can lie and become an Australia citizen and not have Australias best interest at heart
proof is you need to be born in Australia to be a member of parliament and prime minister
but its true money has corrupted this small safeguard too
go to china, work and earn good money, get married and have a family… go on and when you leave you leave with nothing!
I say apply their laws to them, thats not racist, thats just barley fair!
Its the 10 year Government Bond yield that counts.
The 0.25% only applies to Australian BanksIts the 10 year Government Bond yield that counts.
Can you please explain a bit more?
AU$MONEY ~ The AU gov sells bonds to the banks, who can onsell it to the reserve bank, the buyer of last resort, they have to buy all bonds unsold, the reserve then gives the government the money. or the bank has if they hold the bonds as collateral or reserve requirements or to back loans & Over time you can bet the yeild (face value of say the 10 year bond will be up or down), if its down, well normaly a buyer of a bond would demand a higher interest rate to compensate for the loss of final face value (what that converted bonds value is when you have it back in your hand as currency)
and the reverse is true, high interest rates means the face value of a bond can drop!
MONEY PRINTING 101: like the gov is doing now breaks the market link. They still create the bond, the banks buy it and immediatly are forced to onsell it to the reserve, who issues the currency to the gov and also manipulate the interest rate to near zero. Free money! Its why trump, wants to use this trick to refinance the 20+ trillion dollar debt.
when you pay taxes they dont pay down anything, its money destruction, a trick to guide society and give some things more value (investment) over sin (alcohol, smoking). The givernment is also the beneficary of the reserve bank, so the tax payer normaly gets that credited at tax time back into the budget bottom line. yes you can print money and owe it to yourself and collect interest, charge taxes and still be cool, the number they scare you with for debt is BULLSHIT. We paid it off once, we were worse off! Chinas smart they print the money and build a city that can sit empty and the activity makes china rich and they pay us with this worthless money. As they get richer they buy up farms and homes. One day your poor in a land of plenty becuase you vote for fools and beleive lies!
Whoa whoa, AUD has feelings too you know.
But we export things. Right now, export markets not so hot.
Hopefully this is a wake up call to manufacturing which would mean lower wages, to remain in Australia.
Our labour isn't worth USD20/hr.
I am really hopeful that the post pandemic outcome is more manufacturing and tighter borders.
Only makes sense if our taxation burden were dropped accordingly.
Hopefully this is a wake up call to manufacturing which would mean lower wages, to remain in Australia.
National median income has been dropping for over four decades and your solution is to lower it further?
LMAO.
Less internal economic activity is not going to save the Australian economy.
Sorry, I don't have better ideas that can match your recipe for national bankruptcy and mass unemployment as a means to fix the economy.
PS. If wages decrease, everything made locally scales down fairly linearly. It only affects our buying power for imported goods which does not help our economy.
@[Deactivated]: Except "everything made locally" doesn't "scale down" in a global market which matches the price of goods to what can be paid internationally. Your proposal is a recipe for having poverty in a bountiful land.
@meowbert: That would then increase the demand for our cost effective goods hence increasing the demand for our labour and the cost of labour will increase to meet the equilibrium.
What you are implying is to start wages high and somehow end up with low unemployment and high spending power. It's a nice fantasy.
@[Deactivated]: Except it's not a fantasy as that's exactly what Australia had… It's also what many other small and highly developed countries have.
Please don't tell me you're going to claim that the economy wouldn't have been as damaged by this virus if we were all low paid slaves, your limited credibility would be completely shot!
Please don't tell me you're going to claim that the economy wouldn't have been as damaged by this virus
That may be your claim, it certainly isn't mine.
Except it's not a fantasy as that's exactly what Australia had… It's also what many other small and highly developed countries have.
And that's why so many highly developed countries have a dying manufacturing sector.
This virus affected every country but after the pandemic is over, a country with a healthy manufacturing infrastructure is going to bounce back quicker.
@[Deactivated]: Again, except it doesn't because the world doesn't operate like the Economics 101 textbook you're quoting.
@meowbert: Okay. Better start people on high wages and everybody wins.
I rather quote from economics 101 than from bullshit PhD.
@[Deactivated]: I'd rather you didn't quote from anything you don't understand.
High wage economies aren't very good at exporting large amounts of cheap product - I agree. Where you're confusing yourself is you don't NEED to be in order to be wealthy. Hence Australia RIGHT NOW - it's not fantasy as you stupidly proclaim, it's reality.
The cost of living in Australia is high so you need high wages. Period. Your moronic plans not only wouldn't make Australia any wealthier, it would plunge huge numbers into poverty. I'm sure you don't care about them as you don't think you'll be the one taking that low paid job, but some of us do…
And yes, that certainly is your claim. You have literally just stated that the economy would be less damaged if we were all low paid factory slaves.
You have literally just stated that the economy would be less damaged if we were all low paid factory slaves.
Still making claims and labeling it as mine, then winning the argument against the claim you made.
Bravo. Good victory.
PS. look at the AUD to USD timeline. It has been looking grim pre-bushfire, pre-covid.
@[Deactivated]: tshow, I'm generally in your side. Not this time.
We have a high cost of living. So either we need those costs to drop. Or we need to increase wages.
So while on the market, our high wages are under-pressure to be reduced. Doing so will be more bad than good.The solution therefore is "quality" over "quantity".
We need to increase wages. But the work an average employee does needs to increase even higher in terms production output and/or production quality. That only comes with better technology. We need to have an "edge" over the competition. That starts with better education for all (your base or foundation), and then by having better science in the top end/cutting edge. Think of say a hundred workers in a factory during the Industrial Revolution, producing better quality and quantity of product, compared to a company with ten thousand workers who aren't using the new techniques. Or perhaps, the USA in the 1950's when they imported most of the world's top scientists from Europe and Asia, and they became a powerhouse in technology.Australia can do that in two ways: immigration of the best workers in fields of interest, or to develop our own and keep them here. I think the last point is more feasible. We might not be able to compete against Europe, USA, UK etc etc on price (eg $900,000 salary versus $200,000 salary). But we can win the local fight, by keeping these high yield researchers in our companies and government by the way of family, nationalism, and warm climate. That's just a thought experiment, but probably isn't far from the truth.
@Kangal: It's okay, we can disagree from time to time (or even everytime) but I don't think we are disagreeing here.
My point about lower wages was about staying competitive. Sure, if we can be competitive by producing something better, we can demand more. As I said, we are not worth what were are currently asking. The whole rhetoric on slaves and rock bottom wages is what someone else made.
Australia can do that in two ways: immigration of the best workers in fields of interest, or to develop our own and keep them here. I think the last point is more feasible.
Wholeheartedly agree. Until we are actually the best at what we do, we can't feasibly ask for top prices.
And of course, we can't increase our wages in hopes our quality/technology/efficiency increases, however, we can increase our wages if our quality/tech/efficiency increases.
@[Deactivated]: Okay, I think we agree.
However, the rhetoric about rock-bottom prices and slave labour actually is real. It's written in history. And that usually comes from managers where they are far-removed from society, with people forgetting what it was like to use public transport, eat the same meal over and over, and live paycheck to paycheck just as the masses do. So I think currently and in the future, there will always be a tendency for companies to maximise their profits and minimise their expenses, and cutting corners seems easiest when we're talking about the labour force. Not to mention that since we have a fiat currency, it means the value of money is constantly inflating at around 3% annually. So cost of living inevitably goes up. Overall the system creates less income, more expenses.
So to balance the equation, either:
- people have to die
- more people have to move down from the middle-class to poor-class
- wages need to be increased by coercion of the government, force of the workers, or by responsible business ownersThe funny side is, sometimes there are all these warning signs and the "preppers" seem crazy… but no-one expects it to happen to them until it does. So this isn't just the fault of the system, or the companies, no the people need to shoulder responsibility as well. Hearing about the experiences that people in Eastern Europe struggled with is really an eye opener, especially since these are recent.
So to balance the equation, either:
- people have to die
- more people have to move down from the middle-class to poor-class
- wages need to be increased by coercion of the government, force of the workers, or by responsible business ownersAs a business owner, I don't want people to die, be poor or have the last remaining remnants of freedom taken away.
It is still a pretty raw deal for us and on top of that, we're also labelled as greedy regardless of how generous we are.
@[Deactivated]: I agree, it's a tough call.
But that's why it requires someone with leadership skills, so that they can tackle the burden of responsibility of other people's welfare seriously. You and I both know there are many instances where this isn't the case. And it's not just about big corporations, no small businesses can also have a captain who lacks leadership.The temptation to be selfish is just too big to ignore, speaking broadly. That is why many businesses need to be forced (or coerced) into increasing workers conditions and workers wages. The grass isn't greener on the other side, it's just as much as a raw deal… or mostimes worse!
Two points:
Flight to safety;
Interest rate differential…Also, it's back over 61.1 cents. So….
I loved it at 55 c , it a shame going back up again . Exports could buy items all day that out of whack with oversea's prices .
So refreshing to see the perspective other than the perpetual consumer.
Well, they are earning USD in Australia.
Whilst I commend their industriousness, I was actually thinking along the lines of increased opportunity as our equivalent USD pricetag is lower.
It may be worthwhile considering local manufacturing again since we will only be closet to half as expensive to pay as we were at the leak of our dollar.
@[Deactivated]: Yes, I'm sure Australian manufacturing has global recognition, influence and reach. I'm sure Vegemite, Kogan and Holdens do/did well overseas.
@happirt: I'm not even sure how Kogan = Aussie manufacturing.
Take Spackbace's advice. Step back from the computer.
I lost around 10% of my profits with the AUD comeback : (
It's down as $USD is rising in times of uncertainty.
When caronavirus is under control and the world economies start spending on building etc, our minerals will be in strong demand and $AUD will be back up
I'll get paid in USD/EURO/CAD instead.
Dreeeaaam on
Something tells me you're not even employed well before the COVID layoffs.
It was 55c like last week but it's up to 61c right now?
Don’t bring facts to the argument. The OP is practicing to be journalist, with approaching 50c post. Got everyone going didn’t they.
No clue if this is relevant
Reserve Bank of Australia and US Federal Reserve Announce Swap Arrangement
https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-09.htmlBut I remember someone saying that this agreement would reduce the drops we'd expect from everyone fleeing to USD
The other thing to note is that the AUD has become one of the most popular currencies traded by market speculators.
The AUD is one of the more traded currencies on the market, of a value far more than what the value of the Australian economy to the world would imply.
So changes caused by internal and external shocks are exacerbated by speculators trying to profit off it.
I'll get paid in USD/EURO/CAD instead.
Instead of whinging and whining OP consider the many people who are losing their jobs and not currently being paid anything.
Can't find any posts from you when the AU$ was worth more than the US$.
Looks like an essential item in these times of economic crisis.
I don't think you understand how free markets work. Also, currencies don't have feelings, nor do they make conscious decisions, so calling it or the market conditions "disgraceful" is only showing your ignorance on the matter. Also, have fun with getting paid in USD/EUR etc. If this is an option, I'm pretty sure your employer would have set your wage in AUD, so they'll just convert to a foreign currency at the current rate and add some additional margin and fees on top of the existing margin spreads the Forex market is offering. What happens if/when the AUD goes up? Now you're stuck with some foreign currency which is comparatively worth less - great idea.
Playing forex games with your wages probably isn't a good idea, especially if you're transacting mortgages, bills etc. on a daily basis in AUD. Anyway, I wish you good luck with your ambitious and curious ideas and let's hope the AUD becomes less "disgraceful" in your eyes in the future.
better to offshore jobs to AUD earners for low cost labor
You're assuming the AUD will decline further. Even with our depressed dollar, wages are still too high for competitive labour cost.
Not a chance. We would have to see it hit 10c on the USD for us to be a viable offshore target. Regardless this is just the usual flee to safety investors. Will be fantastic for our exports until it recovers
all manipulated
that you is be Jar Jar ??
No. Why would you think it was me?
Between this , my faithful neg-stalkers and being unmasked on public transport, it might be time for me to find a new secret identity.
This is what an economist said today and I believe it.
The AUD will start to turn around at some stage in the near future.
The USA is in bigger trouble than Italy, the stimulus package wont touch the sides, their economy and currency will collapse.
China will recover economically from the current situation first, they are our biggest trading partner and they will drag our economy and our dollar up with them.Who is going to trust China after this? It won't be business as usual I can tell you that
I never said it would be business as usual. I said China will recover first which makes sense if they have contained the virus.
No one trusted China anyway so that wont changeI am really lost - how to run a business moving forward with "the biggest trading partner and they will drag our economy and our dollar up with them" if "no one trusted China anyway so that wont change"?
@happirt - China did the same thing during SARS and people continued to trade with them.
They will just lower the cost of their exports and subsidise it.
"China did the same thing during SARS and people continued to trade with them" -
probably this is why we are having today what we have (COVID, unemployment, Holden/Ford/Toyota, manufacturing, property bubble etc)? No one to blame except of ourselves
Lmao yes please return all the China made stuff you bought asap
To be fair, I think the entire world's economy is about to collapse, not just the US. This includes China BTW - they can't sustain growth off domestic trade alone.
Correct!
Economists have a TRACK RECORD of getting it WRONG 95% of the time!
That is becasue they look at things from a logical point of view.
i.e.What should happen if logic prevailed.But most decisions are based on emotions which are totally unpredictable.
So I wouldnt trust anything economists are sayionmg right now becasaue thyey have absolutely no way of predicting emitional behaviour
Yes, there are a lot of economists who get nothing right. Unlike the geniuses on this site, whos opinion everyone should believe
LOL
I know about the Geniuses on this site@HeWhoKnows: This thing will end at some point and things will get better.
Slagging anyone off who says anything positive is just adding to the fear mongering and scaring everyone.@Meho2026: At some point everything will end. And slagging anyone off who says anything REALISTIC with argumentation without emotions is also not good
What I'd really like to know is why has the Australian dollar been stuck in the "seventy something cents" bracket for the last five years?
Our economy stagnated vs steady growth in the US and Europe. Our interest rates declined whilst theirs grew enticing investment into their markets and away from ours, thereby depressing our dollar.
But for five years straight? Seems odd especially given that the right wing government has been in for that same last five years and they are supposed to be the better of the two at managing business??
Because the RBA has been lowering interest rates, not to help millennials buy a home but to keep the AUD down, to boost exports.
@RockyRaccoon: You honestly think this? It may have been one of the factors but in my opinion, the main reason would have been that they kept lowering it because we've been heading into recession over the past 18-24 months and they were attempting to keep the housing and mortgage market from collapsing under its own weight.
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Lol stay away from the computer please