Now it's pretty obvious that conventional automakers are dropping ICE engine development all together
to prepare for the impending paradigm shift to electric cars.
There could be an initial confusion from new car buyers about weather to get an ICE car at all in the next 5 years or so.
Will this scenario make existing ICE cars cheaper? and what will happen to the petrol stations?
I just want a Honda e that isn’t going to set me back my first born child and 3 of my kidneys…
As appealing as EV’s are, there is just way to much of a mountain to get over when it comes to affordability and models. Not everyone wants a Tesla. And Hyundai only have the Ionic and the Kona.
I don’t think range is the issue any more. When it was 150km and 12 hours to charge, it was an issue. But now it’s 300+ and quick charging is getting better, the range anxiety just isn’t as strong. The issue now is getting diversified in the model range offerings. We need a wider assortment of vehicle types, not just medium/large sedans or SUVs, but things like small cars, family cars and utility vehicles…
The revolution is coming, but it’s a change game, played out long term. Like cars when the started replacing horses and carts. The technology was very expensive, but as more and more people saw the benefits of automobiles, more people purchased them and it took off. The same will happen to electric. As more and more people adopt the EV, the cheaper it will be to make them, and the technology on how to improve them will get better and cheaper…
The revolution is coming, but it’s a change game, played out long term.
That's a contradiction in terms. The definition of a revolution means it happens overnight and fast. What you're talking about is an evolution. That is something that happens gradually over a long time.
revolution
/rɛvəˈluːʃ(ə)n/
- a dramatic and wide-reaching change in conditions, attitudes, or operation.
No, what I am talking about is revolution.
The “evolution” is already happening.
Not in the business world.
There is a distinction between evolution and revolution. One is slow, the other is overnight (not necessarily literally, but at a fast pace).
Dictionaries give too vague a definition for scientific use.
A revolution is the opposite of a revolution. Otherwise, how would you distinguish the two words?
If we're going to use your dictionary definition, a whole lot of things are revolutionary and it dilutes the effect of the word. Kevin Rudd's government was revolutionary in setting a standard of one knife in the PM's back per term.
I do like how you also cherry picked the dictionary.
2a : a sudden, radical, or complete change
This is the accepted use of the word in the business term. What you describe is simply 'change'. If it takes 2000 years for something to catch on, it's not a revolution.
@lostn: Sorry, I didn't consult every single dictionary available on the internet. Wasn't really enough time.
From now on, the "Industrial Revolution" will henceforth be known as the Industrial Evolution (because it didn't happen "overnight"). The American Revolution will now be known as "American Evolution", because it took part over some 18 years.
What cars are doing is evolving. What affect this has on peoples perception of these vehicles is "changes their minds", ie: causing a revolution against ICE vehicles…
Dictionaries give too vague a definition for scientific use.
How is what I was saying anything even slightly related to "scientific"??
Yah done goofed, and now your ego wont let it go. Have at it. You wont convice me…
When people start changing their mind about a certain thing and this starts to happen over a larger percentage on the population, who then start to adopt this new technology, this is called a "revolution". From "evolution" can come "revolution"…
A revolution is the opposite of a revolution.
Huh???
I just want a Honda e that isn’t going to set me back my first born child and 3 of my kidneys…
This is the biggest hurdle. The average age of cars in Aus is 10.1 years, which mean the average value of cars is pretty low. If the average price of e cars was under $30k we’d see a lot more of them.
I don't think a car has to be under a certain price (although there will have to be models that fit into a price bracket), but what I think is more important is that vehicles are of a comparable price.
The Honda e is going to be about the size of a Suzuki Ignis, so the price needs to be at least within this bracket. I don't think people would mind paying a bit extra for an EV, but it's a hard pill to swallow when there is some $30~$40k difference in price.
Hyundai Kona is a great example of this as well. I can buy a Kona for about $25k, or the electric version for almost $70k. That's a hefty price hike for the fuel savings/warm, enviro fuzzy feeling. People who are shopping in that $60~$70k bracket are not looking at small SUV's, and if they are, it's certainly not for a Hyundai. That's BMW X3/Audi Q3 teritory.
And yes, with the average age of Australian vehicles at around the 10 year mark, it is going to take at least this long for EV's to filter out and become mainstream, as well as to become affordable. I can see, at least in the near future, that EV used prices are going to be a depreciation nightmare, because people in the used car segment want value, and that just doesn't come from a $50k+ Hyundai Kona electric. The Nissan Leaf is a good example of this. They were close to $60k new back in 20012/13 and can now be had for close to $10k for a low km, well kept example.
The other thing that buyers need to consider is that buying a battery electric car is that you are paying for fuel up front. agree the price difference for a comparable size ICE car is the big factor and at present it is too big which is why it is the wealthy (with an enviro bent) that are buying them. I know of a retired couple that had a Prius for the enviro reasons, they’ve upgraded to a plug in hybrid but may have bought pure electric if the price was better.
Second hand EVs are going to be an interesting prospect. Unless we develop an industry in replacing batteries at a good price then battery degradation is going to kill used car prices. Bit like ICE vehicles that are past their used by date when the engine wears and becomes uneconomic to replace. Although it is gong to be easier to upgrade to new battery tech than it is to upgrade to fit an ICE to current fuel economy and emissions.
"Not everyone wants a Tesla. And Hyundai only have the Ionic and the Kona."
As others have noted this is specifically an AUSTRALIAN problem. If you've got a model that has a twelve month wait on it, as some do, why would you divert production to a backwater halfway around the world whose government is actively hostile to renewables, has buggerall charging infrastructure yet, and which is RHD?
We are years behind the rest of the world in this stuff.
https://www.autonews.com/article/20181112/OEM06/181119968/am…
This may be the dawn of the electric vehicle era, but 2018 has been a phenomenal year for the humble internal combustion engine.
Among the most notable advancements: General Motors launched full-size pickups that can run on just two cylinders, Mercedes-Benz introduced its first new inline six-cylinder in more than 20 years, and Nissan Motor Co. brought out the industry's first variable-compression engine, which uniquely balances fuel economy and power. Meanwhile, suppliers have been pumping out fuel-saving technologies at a furious pace.
"Gasoline engines are going to remain very, very relevant for a long time," said Ed Kim, vice president for industry analysis at AutoPacific. "Because even with this push towards electrification, the point where we get to a full battery-electric fleet across the country is very far away."
Despite the hype generated by Tesla, even the most bullish forecasts call for full EVs to account for only around 8 percent of the U.S. market by 2025. They represent less than 2 percent today.
Yeah not really going to go away for ICE engines
2018 is 2 years ago sir…
Now it's pretty obvious that conventional automakers are dropping ICE engine development all together
to prepare for the impending paradigm shift to electric cars.
This "impending paradigm shift" has been going on for, what, 30-40 years now? Still waiting to be able to walk into a dealership and buy a Model 3 for Corolla money. Perhaps if petrol stations all installed chargers as well…
EVs are still very expensive. I'd only consider Tesla atm, rest are rush to market me too cars. Love a Cybertruck but probably be over $80K, hard to justify that kind of expense.
Dont see prices affected for the next 5 years at least at lower end, high end yes because why buy a yesterdays tech at EV prices.
EVs are cheaper than ICEVs over 10 years - their running & maintenance costs are far lower & the depreciation rate a lot less
Tesla now depreciates less than all mass production cars, including Porsche
Buying an ICEV is a stupid decision if you plan to have it more than 5 years - you won’t get a cent for it
I'd like to see the calcs you used to determine that EV's are cheaper over 10- years to a comparable ICE.
I made a post about it a little while ago where I made an EV vs. ICE comparison spreadsheet, and most EV when compared to a similar sized or comparable ICE vehicle, the "break even" point is usually somewhere closer to 25 years, not 10.
What depreciation rate did you use?
Tesla is less than 5% & when their robotaxi service is up & running, they will increase in price
What charging rate did you use? $0.10 per kWh?
What?? Are you suggesting that Tesla vehicle prices will "increase"?? Maybe this is the new "$80k Westpac investment" vehicle we have all been searching for.
Tesla is "less than 5%" because of its relative rarity/low volume and higher consumer demand compared to availability. supply = low, demand = high. If Tesla churned cars out at the same rate that Hyundai, Kia or Toyota did, the demand/need would not be there, because it would be easily filled by supply. It's the same reason Ferrari vehicles retain their value. Low supply, high demand. It's also why Apple go bonkers on marketing and then dribble out supply. Create a need, restrict the supply, FOMO, ????, profit!!!
And if you read the post I made, there is a spreadsheet you can download and you can put in all the details you want. Price of fuel. Price of electricity. Depreciation. Purchase costs. Servicing costs… I cant get a break even cost on any comparable EV's to under 10 years, so I just wanted to know how you did it.
@pegaxs: Are you saying cars don’t appreciate?
As for 10 years, I was being generous:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-toyota…
@Boogerman: Some cars "can" appreciate, but a bog stock, run of the mill, off the showroom floor vehicle, like an ordinary, everyday Tesla, not likely. Saying and/or believing that used Tesla prices will rise after purchase is right up there with the Kool Aide guzzling Harley Davidson owners. Unless it's a super rare or desirable vehicle with some form of racing or sentimental value, why would anyone buy a used vehicle for more than the cost of a new one (unless supply is being artificially restricted to drive up prices)
The cost of a Camry is about $30,000. The cost of Tesla Model 3, is about $70,000. While a Camry may cost $500 a year to service, the Tesla may only be $200, there is A LOT of servicing leeway built into the $40,000 price difference. (as well as a lot of fuel costs/savings)
@pegaxs: “… bog stock, run of the mill, off the showroom floor vehicle, like an ordinary, everyday Tesla…”
You probably define Tesla as a bubble stock as well? giggle
@Boogerman: Over inflated stock value with little asset value. Absolutely. It's the very definition of Tech Bubble stock. But you keep drinking down the Elon Musk branded water, ok. ;)
@Boogerman: I'm not buying it. How is my not investing in Tesla helping you? It's just too many cult members sipping the Musk flavoured tonic water and circle jerking each other into a self-fulfilling delusion.
I think I'll just stay out of Elon's pyramid scheme, eat my pop corn and watch the world burn.
@pegaxs: I understand what you're saying but at the same time shorters with the same attitude as you have suffered greatly all this while. Now those folks have put their money where their mouth is.
The reason you can stay this flippant with the winkyface is that you have no horse in this race right?
You probably define Tesla as a bubble stock as well? giggle
Is Tesla a car manufacturing company stock (like Ford & GM) or a tech stock (like Apple and Google)?
I have indirect investments in Tesla. One fund manager holds a short position, whilst the other (index fund) is reaping the share price increase.
A LOT of servicing leeway built into the $40,000 price difference
Unfortunately it is!
Even if magic works and a Tesla costs nothing to run (solar panels, not servicing, no insurance) there is still a full $40,000 of expenses for the Camry to spend.
Say $1,000 a year for service (dealership crooks and new tires) still $39,000 to cover … or more than 24,000 liters of petrol ($1.60/L) … or around 300,000Km … I never had a car for that long.
25 years is far too optimistic.
EVs are the future but we are not there yet :-(
As for 10 years, I was being generous:
Jees, see the data they've used for that? $1,875 tax credit for the Tesla, Blue Book estimates for resale
Just did an insurance estimate - $1122/yr for Tesla Model 3 Standard, $518.18/yr for Camry Asc Sport Hybrid
Don't pluck figures from the states to try to prove a point, because it doesn't work in a different country.
@Boogerman: In the US sure, where the actual vehicle is made, gets tax benefits, has an earlier and quicker adoption rate, etc etc.
Again, find figures based on Aussie data. Oh yeah, it doesn't exist, Tesla hasn't been here long enough or sold enough vehicles here to form an opinion.
@spackbace: The Model X I bought would sell for more than what I paid 18 months ago
5% depreciation is overly generous
The Model X I bought
Lol. Knew it. Cant wait till the Tesla driving school teacher gets in here to impart their opinions… You two would make a lovely couple.
would sell for more than what I paid 18 months ago
Keep telling yourself that, champ :D
@Boogerman: I’ve just told my financial advisor to cash in all my investments and just go out and buy as many new Tesla Model X vehicles they can get… can’t wait to sell them all in 18 months and just take in that sweet, sweet profit…
@pegaxs: And then from the 18mo-3yo mark they drop to 60% of purchase price…
You must have a very small window to suddenly sell it for a profit before it comes crashing down 😂
#crackpipedown
@pegaxs: Here's a 2018 for $118k, and would be $170k brand new in WA
I'm still wondering in what world $118k>$170k
@pegaxs: Model 3 is a better investment. I don't think Tesla will be offering a 'Black' premium service like Uber.
@Boogerman: Ah confirmation bias, there it is. Gotta love it
Of course you'll sing the praises of the car you bought. Heaven help anyone who tells you that an ICE car would be better/cheaper in the long-term
$165k buys a new one, $115k buys a 3yo one (which is $189k new in WA with 6 seats and self-driving)
$74k loss in value over 3yrs. That's 1 hellova bitter pill to swallow. Nearly 40% loss. Where'd you get 5% from?!
That's fine, keep being delusional ;)
@Boogerman: Just going to dismiss the real-world resale data I just showed you huh?
How'd you like to lose $74k on your car in only 3 years? Does that seem a wise investment to you?
@spackbace: I suggest you drive one Spaceback, really check it out. Take out an X, an S and a 3. Then you too will have confirmation bias, because you’ll realise how far ahead they are of the rest of the automotive world. The reason Tesla fans get a bit nutty is that they’ve come from ICE cars, and they have an epiphany. What the guy you’re replying to is saying is true. I’m assuming he got one of the pre Raven Model X 75D that was featured on here last year at a $50k discount (runout of old stock). It was an amazing deal and there is no doubt that his car is now worth significantly more than he paid at the time (infact within a week of that firesale the second hand value of those cars had shot up by at least $20k based off what people were asking on carsales). Normally Tesla Model S and X do depreciate at the standard rate (but Model 3 are in such high demand at the moment that you can sell them for more than you paid, but that won’t last).
@spackbace: You’re not comparing like cars. A Camry Hybrid is most certainly not in the same class as a Tesla Model 3 standard. Compare it to its competition, which I think when taking everything into account (performance, features, luxuries), would be a BMW 330i. The Tesla is about $15k cheaper RRP, probably $5-10k cheaper after you negotiate a normal BMW discount. The Tesla is better in every way. And cheaper to run and purchase. The only thing I can think of that is superior in the BMW is the 360 camera system. The BMW also has real leather, but it’s that shitty hard as cardboard stuff, so as a personal presence I’d prefer the Tesla’s soft plastic (but prefer a high grade Nappa to both).
@[Deactivated]: No, I was using the comparison Boogerman linked to in terms of cost of ownership between the Tesla and a Camry hybrid.
If you have an issue with my comparison, then you also have an issue with his, so cheers!
thats because for now Tesla is a badge car, wait till everyone catches up (especially Japanese and Korean manufactures) then see how high yield investment a Tesla would be.
@weee: Tesla is at least 5 years ahead in certain aspects of this cars and production. Their battery tech is the best, their BMS is second best after the new Porsche system in the Taycan, their battery production capability is unrivalled (both Audi and Jag had to suspend production of their EVs recently due to lack of batteries), their time software hardware integration is by far the best (still no one else is doing over the air updates, just promises to do so), and most importantly for Tesla, their autopilot system is without a doubt the best in the market and the in production AP3 hardware is at least 5-6 years ahead of what Toyota can do (by their own admission), and even blew Nvidia, who specialise in this stuff, out of the water.
EVs are cheaper than ICEVs over 10 years
Not sure how you can possibly state that in Aus with such conviction. There's no real-world data to base it on.
The oldest electric car on Carsales is a 2011, and it's certainly not mass produced
A Nissan Leaf is around $50k new, with a 2012 model @ $16,990.
The thing with electric cars and resale is the constantly changing technology. That early Leaf model had 120km range, new one states 315km. Advancements in the technology, at rapid rates, will see resale hugely affected.
ICE cars haven't seen such improvement over a short period of time. You wouldn't think that VVTi would massively affect resale or anything, whereas newer engine/battery technology in EVs will have a marked affect.
You’re looking backwards not forwards. It’s why I giggle at ‘analysts’ who struggle to grasp why Tesla is the second most valuable automotive company, soon to take over Toyota that has over 20 times the annual production. Like a general physician who defaults to a mental illness diagnosis because the physical science hasn’t caught up, so an ‘analyst’ defaults to defining Tesla as a bubble stock.
Looking backwards how? I don't think you're looking at the world of EVs as much as you make it out to be.
EV technology is on such a curve now, that early adopters will regret buying their cars now, as they're constantly improving with each new model. In turn, this can only affect resale negatively.
The advancement of EV far exceeds what's happened to the petrol engine recently, and on a far quicker pace.
It's the automotive equivalent of the CPU. With each new advancement, the old, out-dated model quickly loses value and any interest in it.
If you believe advancements in this area will be minor and slow, then you don't have a clue.
Old leafs have terrible battery deg due to a lack of BMS. That’s why they’re so cheap.
I know, but same degree of advancements will occur across all EV manufacturers right now, which will affect resale with each new model released
So thanks for proving my point!
@spackbace: I think the only cars that are going to experience severe depreciation in the next few years are diesel and petrol cars. The Model 3 as an example, has the lowest depreciation of any car sold in the US.
ICE engine
It's the ATM machine all over again!
At this ATM machine, will I need my PIN number?
Has anyone read about government plans with relation to fuel excise? I haven't, but as I see it they'll need to decouple the excise and fuel costs and figure out excise vs mileage or else how else will they fund roads?
Lots of people are talking about saving money switching from petrol to electricity, perhaps halving their running costs - but a large part of that saving is because they no longer pay the fuel excise. At some point the government is going to have to move the goalposts!
Well there is always the Registration fee card
Yes, if you were forced to report your mileage every year when you renewed your registration (or when you bought or sold your car), and then the govt sends you a road tax bill per km travelled.
mate this is Australia - we're redeveloping a new steam engine called the slowmo - the coal it burns won't count towards our emissions because the nationals and the liberals say so, so its all good!
EV is better going with nuclear power as the power source are Australians ready for that? lots of city dwellers are living in apartments/units they don't have the direct access to solar power.
many don't have direct access to power of any kind.
how will people who don't have off street parking charge an EV?
We should be moving towards a situation where people that don’t have off street parking don’t need a car because public transport is the better alternative. Streets should be made for driving on, not parking on.
People who don’t have off street parking will need to rely on public charging infrastructure which may mean at the local shops centre, at work or maybe councils will provide charge points at light poles.
The power grid is going to need some major improvements if we want to replace all the ICE vehicles with electric.
yeah that'll be coal as well - all good - whats left to burn can burn- people can die- the enviro - who gives a flying …. and another billion dead Australian animals - couple of dozen more extinctions, but America first- so its all good.
I don't think it will, most people will plug in overnight when the demand on the grid is relatively low.
I think you are vastly underestimating how much power will be needed to charge all these electric cars.
eg, Charging a 100 kWh Tesla battery will use several times more power than your entire daily household consumption. Now imagine a two car family…
With all these cars charging night time will no longer be off peak - it will be the peak time by far.
Sure, but you don't commute 400km a day (or at least I hope you don't).
My kona uses about 13kwh per 100km. A small 2 person household uses 13 kWh a day. If you are a heavy user of ac you can probably double or triple that.
Load from charging using the slow wall charger for me had the same load as using my ac. Charging my car from 0 to full is the same as running my ac non stop for 2 days.
Charging my car from 0 to full is the same as running my ac non stop for 2 days.
And you don't think it will impact the grid when everyone is doing this? lol
@trapper: Of course it will impact the grid, it’s just not as extreme as all cars getting a full charge from empty every day. The average car travels 40km/day or thereabouts. Based on the figure of 13kwh/100km above its closer to 7kwh per day per vehicle.
@Euphemistic: Will it?
The grid is built to handle a much higher peak load than off peak. They could easily incentivise charging off peak and the grid could handle the load perfectly well.
You could even have extra logic put into the grid to fill cars up when the wholesale price goes negative. It's like having heaps of batteries floating about.
Once capacities increase enough and the grid adapts we could even use them to power houses during peak loads or even overnight.
@flametornado: Yes. It will impact the grid, but it’s not going to crash it. As you say, there is excess capacity in off peak at present and smart devices and meters are already available. The energy sector is already surveying owners and preparing for future loads. It’s not like they just stick their heads in the sand and only build more stuff when it all runs out now is it? We have, and have had, remarkably reliable power supply in most of this country for a very long time.
What would be a great idea, the government takes the LCT and uses that for a subsidy program for EV cars.
we don't make them so you want to subsidise foreign car imports?
you must also support the current zero tax regimes for yank energy companies like the nationals/ liberals…
If it brings the cost down, then why not. We don't make solar panels, but governments subsidise these.
Australia doesn't subsidise panels?
@petry: Are you asking or telling?
This is what I meant.
https://www.energy.gov.au/rebates/renewable-power-incentives
If they refuse to get rid of the LCT then they may as well do something with the money.
If it means an increased uptake of EV's leading to a more rapid influx of charging infrastructure then why not? (And not sure if that's really a national/liberalistic view) as it is a progressive outcome. (rather than subsidizing coal which is mind boggling)
We don't make anything any more.
We also heavily subsidise so much crap for overseas, and stuff owned by overseas companies like adani and their shitty coal mine. We might as well subsidise something that has a net positive impact on the world.
GET A TESLA NOW
and plug it in your where?
Garage.
so everyone goes to your garage? big is it?
Or get a Camry Hybrid and about 10,000 litres of fuel with enough spare change to buy another Corolla…
Norway is a good testing ground. Rich enough not needing the EU BS. Isolated like India between mountains and sea. Plenty of hydro power. Good education system. Plenty of tunnels.
Grown up serious people sick of un-needed noise. But: Too cold for optimal Li batteries usage. Plans for ever longer tunnels who wants to pump out exhaust gasses? Driving on snow AWD makes most sense. So cars built out of aluminium and 2 electric motors are way to go.
EV's need a lot of re thinking. Charging times are still the biggest hold up. We have sort of 3 different liquids to propel stink cars. How many plugs are there to fill up EV's?
where are the plugs? apart from our pollies ears and …
Norway subsidise electric cars and charging of them (free street charging) via their sovereign wealth fund which was and is based on the sale of oil to other countries. I personally take my hat off to them, but the story of how they pay for their genius ev moves needs to be told,
Watch some of Tony Seba's presentations.
Tech convergence in this space will change transportation as we know it.
Our government aren't interested in the environment and will never support anything that they can't profit from.
As we're just making the jump from v8 Ute's to diesel it'll be a while before we catch up with the civilised world
I think the main factor is cost. If you had the option of a 20K EV Corolla or a 20K Petrol, it's a no brainer.
A close friend picked a Model 3 over the equivalent BMW or Merc. Power, technology and cargo space blew him away.
There are other new and existing carmakers apart from Tesla entering the EV market in 2020-2021
In all this we should not forget China and its push to manufacture EVs. Spent time there last year and there are lots of different EVs hitting the roads with their version of Uber. Some are not pleasant cars to be in, but some are really good. Chinese EVs will head into the OZ market in the next few years with less expensive offerings. These are mostly joint venture vehicles with Euro or US makers. Will be interesting to see how it goes.
Whats the average age of the australian fleet? Its 10y give or take. That time would need to pass before any tipping point is reached about servos etc. And that assunes EVERY new car sold from now on is EV. So probably double that time, and double it again due to the massive premium on EVs. And the fact wages growth has stalled, so the average fleet will increase the longer this goes on.
Also need to see what happens to the used EV market, and/or what happens to all the Telsas when their batteries wear out and are uneconomical to replace. The EV converts might just have a re-think when faced with a massive repair bill every 10y.
So ask these questions again in 2050.
@lostn: Comes back to us being a tiny market. They can’t supply a veg one until it passes ADR etc. they won’t submit them for testing, or make the changes to suit our rules until hey can guarantee a certain number of sales - certain hero or specialty cars excepted. Don’t think they can sell them because we don’t have infrastructure, won’t do the compliance testing because they won’t sell. We can’t buy them and prove them wrong about wanting them because they can’t sell them.