Aud is dropping against usd for 12 days consecutively. What is the best way to conserve my savings of 100k? I had been told House market is bad. And i don't know much about Share market. Bank is not giving much interests. What are other options?
AUD is dropping 12 days consecutively. What to do?
Cataclysm on 05/08/2019 - 17:33
Comments
- 1
- 2
@Ace26: Yes, although the gold/silver ratio is high at the moment. By that measure silver is better value.
So are you saying buy actual physical ingots? I can imagine silver taking up quite a bit of room?
Not to mention it's bloody heavy. Same as lead.
You must not be rich enough to pop this question :p, this is not rich people's question :p
Huh? Who cares what it is compared to USD unless you're actively buying things in USD and losing value on those purchases, it'll go up again eventually. You say it's savings, so how are you losing anything? You still have the same amount of AUD which you are, I assume, not spending or planning to spend. So what's the problem here again?
But those retailers are buying in USD from overseas suppliers so eventually do you think they won't pass on the costs to us? The same amount of AUD now isn't exactly the same value of AUD in future that's what OP's concern.
You will see everything doing up and more expensive because Australia imports many things from the US. Unless, you are willing to buy and use local products
Buy a house in Denmark with a danish mortgage. They currently pay 0.28% just for taking out the loan. Strange but true. In a post GFC world Australia is just an easy to take for a run country and global markets reflect this. On a global scale there is not much safe excitement but stay clear of scammers, they currently grow faster than weed!
That's weird!
Europe is the last place I'd be investing in anything, the last of those options being real estate. The exception is the very few countries that have taken the stance of culling immigration. Everywhere these new 'citizens' move, property values plummet.
No-one wants to live near them, due to their habitual violence both toward each other and everyone else due to decades of ingrained (and indoctrinated) racism in their homelands. The media and Western governments paint a completely different picture to reality of course, but those who have experienced it or are clued-up from afar on what's really happening, know the reality. They're just kicking the can down the road, ignoring it, calling citizens sounding a warning, 'racists' - and leaving the powder keg for someone else to deal with once they are retired on their fat government pensions, surrounded by tall security fences. The vast majority, no so much.
Generally I'd say, "Buy anyway. It will go up again." But the foolish power-hungry EU will never allow things to change willingly. So it will KEEP falling. (They even want their own independent army to force countries that wake up from their daydream and try to break free of their depraved control, to fall in line.)
Unless more than 50% of EU countries revolt against the EU - all at the same moment - create hard borders, start repatriating their economic migra… ooops, I mean, 'refugees'… the entire continent of Europe is sunk - and the value of every asset there will drown along with them.
Buying a $300k or $400k rental property in a region that prices have already plummeted (my area has in sor Perth WA). It may drop more, but in 10+ years you'll own it and continue with rent income, and price appreciation most likely.
Share market will likely plummet, as a guess I'll guess the ASX200 will fall as low as 4800 in the next couple of years, but this is an educated guess only which I am personally investing in.
Just don't take stupid risks like so many do.Isn't income from rent always very low so negative gearing kicks in?
Property is a investment that cost you money to have, to maintain and to rent out (rates, fees, charges, damages, wear and tear, advertising, agents, etc). Even when finally owing and then selling more taxes apply (CG).
For a reason boring good old gold and silver were the choices. Not sure if nowadays is still valid.
By the way, the exchange differential is minimal. Fluctuates but very little.
And still well above 0.60 that I recall was the mark used by exporters/(big)importers (like cars).You can buy property that will make you money overall if you search for it, but it's probably rare, else you may need to repair, renovate. I've seen a few, one recently in a Geraldton suburb. 70 to $80k house for $35k due to tenants damage.
I don't know if gold is still bought for safe haven, but I think it is.
Subdivision of some sort is normally the way to positively gear a property. Take a house with two bathrooms and turn it into two properties. Or, go full slumlord and rent each room out individually to students or similar.
Negative gearing depends on your sums. e.g. If you pay $100k asking price for a home in a country town, it may be a dump, but it's a dump bringing in rent that's 100% yours (less RE agent fees). Likewise if a property is negatively geared - just put more money in (a larger deposit) - and Voila, positive geared. In other words, it's only negatively geared if you buy a negatively-geared property. And if you don't want one, buy a cheaper one until it it's positive-geared.
Rent will be income, hence taxed. Lose more.
Already out of $100K (for your example) either full buy or deposit. Start minus $100K. Lose more.
As stated above. The one in a million is buying a dump of $70K for $35K and then get friendly tenants (aka cheap cheap rent) to yes, actually provide an income. Plausible. But we are talking peanut$ at the end.
Negative gearing seems to be the only way. Offsetting income from other sources (salary, investment, other higher rental income).
Just my opinion, of course.@LFO: Depends. Everyone's situation is different. e.g. Someone with $100k in the bank who is on Centrelink benefits because they've injured themselves, would probably pay zero tax.
Regardless, peanuts is better than the shells - or thin air (bank interest).
OP has $100k. I saw a rural property last night for $70k. It was far from awful. The same town has ONE equivalent property for rent for $170/w, but it is brick. So let's say the $70k property can achieve $130/w rent…
Leaving $70k sitting in Ubank would earn 2.41% = $140 per month = $32/w. $130/w from the property is better than $32/w from Ubank - even after paying tax.
Or if he can wrangle multiple loans, and only puts deposits down instead of buying outright, he can buy multiple similar properties - making sure the incoming rent covers the outgoing loan repayments. Thus he's no worse off financially, but now 'owns' multiple properties - plus he can claim depreciation, and eventual rent increases put him in profit again, or able to leverage for yet another property purchase.
Or flip some/all of the properties to the tenants for a faster, larger, profit. Or probably a half-dozen other possibilities I haven't thought of.
Panic the sky is falling in, just wait till China sends in the troops into Hong Kong then you'd wish you never ever held shares….
Irrelevant. How does China sending troops in affect Woolworths / Coles / Australian banks? Absolutely zero. If you want to profit you might buy CSL. You think global but you don't think local. Yes there might be initial few days of shock.
The interesting part about Hong Kong being a financial centre of Asia like London is to Europe. Money can be wired pretty quickly so can a stock exchange be relocate
Wiring money out?
Somehow the Chinese government is very much aware of this. They are communists, not stupid.
Hong Kong doesn't have capital controls. You are confusing Hong Kong "one country two systems" with mainland China.
@netjock: So mainland China doesn't know that?
Meaning, when the proverbial "poo" hits the fan will "the authorities" that control everything, will not lock transfers?
I am not defending the communist regime, just guessing that they have absolute and complete control over everything. It is not Switzerland.
I remember the extreme fear of expats (Poms) when the change over. They had one foot in Hong Kong and one in the plane … units fully furnished and in use, empty of residents but showing "residency". Nothing eventuated at the end.
@LFO: If you believe Chinese army will march in and lock transfers. That is a big "IF". You believe it possible but it is an extreme scenario.
I'll tell you this. If Chinese forces cross the border there will be a serious shock but locking capital flight considering Hong Kong has no natural wealth (manufacturing / mining) but relies on making a cut on movement of capital then it will destroy the economy.
Why would you want to govern a piece of land that you have to subsidize? Observe how the Chinese government allowed Macao to open casinos bringing prosperity to the former Portuguese colony. In fact the Macao dollar has strong purchasing power than the Hong Kong dollar.
1997 handover was 20 years ago. People's fears then is a lot different to fears now. Hong Kong started out having a stronger currency than Chinese and lived like Australians going to Thailand. In 20 years the RMB has appreciated and Hong Kong people doesn't have as much purchasing power in China and Chinese tourists have flooded Hong Kong (to buy goods they can't buy in China). The Hong Kong people are resentful of mainland Chinese even before this extradition bill.
Look into a year or two in oil investment. With the current situation of oil control in the straight of homoz (spelt wrong) and with the US wanting to keep the US petrodollar stable. Any situation there will cause crazy high oil and petrol prices. And if war breaks out we will see $2.00-2.50 a litre here, maybe more. Doesn't have to be a huge amount. But for a quick buck in the next 12-24 months. I would serious look into it. Just pull out once those prices skyrocket and you make some money. The oil market is a volatile one
Give it to a charity and let them worry about it. We ozbargainer's don't need that sort of pressure. Just keep back $10 for an emergency bargain.
Use 100k to invest in recycle centre for items with high extract of gold, silver and copper.
This seems like an odd knee-jerk type reaction to not a big issue…
Something that's not mentioned is putting your money into ETF's, something like the Vanguard products. This is just general advice though, not really specific to your perceived scenario that the AUD is crumbling. But it means you have some exposure to the share market without having to do too much work, and the returns are good.
Most people knee jerk react to financial markets, which is how you get FOMO and panic dumping. It pays to keep a clear head in these situations.
Buying hedged ETFs is also a good way to take advantage of the low AUD (assuming you believe it's going to go up).
go and treat yourself. go buy that bmw and pay cash so you feel high baller shot caller
When I moved to the US to study, it was 0.74 it hasn't been as high since. Exchange rates go up and down, nothing I can do about it (thankfully I've been earning USD for the last few months).
So what you're saying is if you move back to the US it will hit 0.74 again? Cool, let us know when you go, I'll place a few bets
I'm still here haha. When I move back it'll probably be close to parity again haha
Quickly buy a high-yield $80K investment vehicle
Hedge in forex market.
keep Selling AUD/USD-Try to buy Australian made.
-Go on a domestic holiday instead of an overseas one.
-Hold off on purchases of electronics, cars, appliances, any high cost imported item etc as long as you can.
Invest in avocados.
All on BLACK!
Yup, safest bet is All Blacks over the Wallabies this weekend…
- Pay off any outstanding debt like credit cards (highest interest rate first).
- Keep 3-6 months of living expenses in HISA at Ubank or ING.
- Sign up for a low cost stock broker like this
- Whenever you have leftover money, buy VDHG
- Don't worry about price fluctuations, news, etc. Just hold and stick with the strategy.
Keep this up and you'll probably be able to retire in < 20 years.
Standard "This is general advice" disclaimer.
Is that what you do?
that is good general advice listen to this
Hide it under your mattress and wait for the notes to become collectable.
Do your research and put money in a good investment fund. I was making 9% in the one I was in, much better than leaving it in the bank.
Was :)
Was because I bought a house and needed to withdraw for the 20% deposit.
Ouch on those exit fees.
So your "deposit" ended up costing you 9% per year (minus tax).
Wouldn't a mortgage at 7% be better???
Remember, 100k AUD will always be 100k AUD
Yes, but you will need 110K to buy the same amount of imported goods.
Have eneloops gone up in price?
You take about $100k but don't talk about value. Don't forget time value money.
Invest in my bank account. I will throw in FREE BSB and Account numbers.
This is not financial advise.
The best thing you can do is DIVERSIFY so if something does go wrong you're not caught with your pants down.
In my view having all your holdings in one asset (cash) is bad, you're at risk of lowering interest rates, monetary policy, runaway inflation ect.
Consider something like: 20% AUS Stocks, 40% International Stocks, 20% Bitcoin, 20% cash.Probably a good time to buy AUD.
Ie. Anything you have to convert into AUD, might be good to do it now . Like converting your crypto into AUD now. If the AUD rises, then you are ahead 👍What about hk dollars or chinese yuan. Still good?
I'm no expert.
But just using logic, and math… If the yuan (or any currency) has either risen or stayed same, and the AUD is down, well if you change the yuan (which is up??) To AUD now (which is down) . Then when AUD comes back up, you will be ahead :)
Either buy property (with land! NO APARTMENTS) or put your money in to VAS or VGS on the ASX
You will not lose money in the medium and long term on either of these investments but i dare say if you are only moving you money because of a short term 12-day outlook you should keep your money in the bank because all investments GO UP AND GO DOWN its the longer term u need to look at - if you cant stomach on paper losses then investing isnt for u
Short the aussie dollar
I'm in the same boat as OP (100-150k) in Ubank earning a pittance and thinking as a global investor I'm wanting to move my money offshore to emerging markets likely to benefit from the US-China trade war in to hedge against the AUD falling further (likely as all the RBA does is cut rates and/or devalues the AUD). Any advice on how I can go about doing it safely and cheaply?
Investing a large amount in emerging markets is never going to be safe (or easy, really, if you don't want China or India). If you want safe and cheap I'd suggest a global diversified ETF like VGS, VDHG or IWLD.
Every market has opportunities and threats and different kinds of risks. You have to do your own research to fit your own profile. If you cannot then seek a professional financial advisor.
Bikies.
Everyone needs to read this if they care about their investments
He will 100% be proven right eventually
But yes, it could be a while longer
the value of the AUD falling means nothing unless you need to buy USD for some reason. If you live here then there is little impact
No one really knows what will happen because of Trump's trade war, safest thing might be to park your money under your mattress
Alternatively, with interest rates so low, take out a loan gotta spend money to make money
Exchange rates are EVERYTHING!!
The fuel we use, the coal we sell.
From there on it is EVERYTHING.
Convert to usd coin. Thats a stable coin pegged to the usd, fully backed. Would be much cheaper and easier than buying usd.
\A USD ETF like BetaShares USD would be better in every single way than some crypto currency.
Now a days investors are moving from Stocks to Gold that's a early of financial crisis. Invest in gold.
That's not true. Gold prices have stagnated over the last few years and are significantly down from a 2012 high.
compare it against AUD from January to august
Don't see the relevance?
Gold or BTC
Think i'm in a worse position than OP. I'm going on a month long holiday to America in October. Been planning since February but hadn't paid for accommodation/exchanged any money. I'm holding off in the hopes it'll go back up a bit sometime in the next 2 months! The fall has probably added about $1-2k to the price of the holiday.
Buy Australian products - no exchange rate "import tax"
Pokies. I’m up tonight lads! 🎰
Not sure if I need to start a new thread but I am looking to go to US next year. As stated, the $US is weak for us at the minute. Do you think it will improve? Hoping to be strategic when purchasing USD.
Here listen to what the experts gotta say
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA4MfGt3Gho&ab_channel=RealV…Anyone who studies companies balance sheets will tell you long term those companies would have made more doing no hedging . Fees are the killer .
Hence play it by ear and whatever happens , happens :)
Que Sera, Sera
I think in ForeEx terminology the USD is stronger than the weak(er) AUD.
Improve? Nope. Not within months.
But cyclically yes.
Remember the AUD was about $1.10 in 2016(???) and was $0.49 in 2001.Only certainty is fluctuation.
OP is asking a relevant question. 100k AUD will not be 100k AUD once the RBA negative rates kick in…
I cant wait for it, already $90Billion has gone from shares market into precious metal and crypto. It is my first time that Im truly engage and prepared for this short of event. Bring it back Cyprus 2013 !!!
In recent weeks the media has been protraying RBA head Philip Lowe as the hero and saviour of the economy despite his artificial inflation of our bubbling property and ASX markets. Today an ABC article further priming us dumb Australians that lower (and possibly negative) interest rates are yet to come.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-14/rba-interest-rate-cut…What are the odds that Philip Lowe will move to cut interest rates even further to eat into the savings deposits of retirees and ordinary Australians?
Odds on. QE to follow.
Someone convince me that Philip Lowe is better than a monkey with 3 buttons labelled "increase 0.25%", "decrease 0.25%" and "do nothing"
That's totally wrong. He does jawboning as well.
He does jawboning as well
Ain't working …
I wouldn't mind if the RBA was run by reckless monkeys. The monetary effects will be the same but at least it will be more entertaining.
That is very well paid monkey. I read that AIDS originate from monkey too
And the banana is above the "do nothing" button …
ForEx news:
AUD about 0.6844 …
Sharp climb from 3rd Sep to 13th
Seesaw seesaw seesaw …
- 1
- 2
I remember Silver going all the way to mid 950AUD per kilo in around GFC, it went back to low $600 and pretty much didn't recover to the previous peak, Gold on the other hand had a different story to tell. I guess people mostly value gold as a safer investment during uncertain times.