[AMA] I Invest for a Living

I primarily invest in shares for a living. I have been investing for over 30 years. I am self taught and have minimal formal training in investment management. I used to rely on a full service broker until I realised most of the recommendations were conflicted with the brokers other commitments. Whilst the results were just OK I realised that I was taking too much risk for the reward.

I prefer shares to other investments because the transaction action costs are minimal and the liquidity is very good.
- I have invested in real estate previously and did OK but only because of the leverage with debt. There was a lot of work (tenants, R&M, agents, irregular cashflow) etc) which I was not keen on and the leverage was a concern because it works both ways Over the last 5 years
- I have also looked at bonds and hybrids but nah, the returns are lower and the risk is only slightly better.
- I have used LICs/LITs/ETFs previously the but returns are equal to or just below AVERAGE (Caps intended). Having said this I have recommended this type of investment to relatives and friends who are not interested or are time poor.

I spend about 20 hours per week on reading and research. I never buy a stock unless I have spent at least 1 hour researching the business (and I use a wide range of paid for services that save me lots of time). I usually invest in stocks with forceable growth, predictable income and low debt. However I will occasionally allocate up to 10% of my portfolio into 2 or 3 riskier stocks with good medium and long term momentum.

I am sure these comments will come up so I will pre-empt the reply.
- There is no investment that is not without risk to capital except for deposits in Australian banks that enjoy a Government guarantee up to $250K.
- You can lose lots of money (leaving it on the table) by not investing)
- When investing the risk of capital loss is best ameliorated by diversifying investments. I use 25 stocks with 50% exposed to Australia and 50% international.
- Never ever invest in businesses that you do not understand how they make their income.
- The only IPOs a broker will offer you are the ones not to invest in. The good deals are reserved for their best clients who pay them thousands in fees.

closed Comments

      • You mention that you sometimes make discretionary decisions on when to buy or sell, does this not throw your results from the model completely out the window since you are deviating from the system?

        • "You mention that you sometimes make discretionary decisions on when to buy or sell," Can you please expand on your question. I don't understand?

  • I notice you skipped over the question on how much you draw down from this for living expenses.

    Maybe you could answer what percentage you draw down vs what's left to compound?
    Does the amount/percentage spent on living vary depending on your return for the year or is it fairly fixed?

    • +2

      I draw $65K per annum which is all I need for living expenses plus one off withdrawals for holidays. The portfolio earns more than I withdraw.

      • Can you just tell us how much the portfolio earns? Don't see why it's a big secret considering you're doing an AMA..

        • Previous replies suggest the portfolio earns on average 12%.
          I.e the portfolio is at minimum $550,000

          • @n2o spark: You need more because you also need capital growth.

            • @jhmtaylor: Hint: If say that 12% is made up of 5% dividends 7% growth. OP portfolio would be $1.3m

  • Over what time frame are most of your trades? Days, weeks, years?

    • Most of my investments are made with an initial view of a 1 to 3 year holding period. But if the information used in the original investment decision changes I review the investment decision. The most difficult thing I found in the early stages was not selling when I should have. I now use a pyramid system and stick to it rigidly. I also ignore tax on the transaction because it only encourages poor decision making.
      However I have traded one or two momentum stocks in the past with a view to holding them for weeks, but it was mainly when I was bored and had plenty of free time.

      • +1

        Thanks. Can you elaborate on what you mean by a pyramid system? My quick google search gave two different answers.

        • +2

          The pyramid system is after doing all your research you are undecided. Buy 1/3rd of your investment and watch the trend. If it goes up buy the rest. The opposite with selling. If I wonder if I should sell or not, I sell 1/3rd and watch the trend. If if goes up I buy back in and if it falls I sell the remainder.
          I am rarely undecided when it comes to buying so mainly use pyramiding when selling.

          • @jhmtaylor: Have you considered using trailing stop loses to exit a position? As the price rises keep moving your stop up behind it.

            • @Providence: Trailing stop losses are useful for short term trading. My investing is longer term and I found that I was being stopped out of good investments due to some short term aberration too often so I no longer use them. Also they do not work if the market opens below the set limit.

  • 1.You mentioned that you recommend LIC, LIT and ETFs to family and friends that are time poor. Have you got any recommendations?
    2.Do you mainly concentrate on dividend investing?
    3.How will Labor's proposed franking changes affect you?

    • +1

      1 They are not recommendations but I like are FGG, FGX, FOR, (also FOR unlisted international) MFF and QVE.
      2 No I concentrate on total return. Dividends are not a major consideration in my decision making process.
      3 It will hurt but they will not raise anywhere near the tax income they think they will. LICs will convert the listed trusts, companies will cut dividends but increase the number of share buy backs, there will be much much greater invest overseas (which I think most investors need to do).

  • +1

    Did you trade when the 911 hit? if so how much did you lose

    • +1

      At the time I was using a full service broker who made all of the recommendations and I sucked up the losses. I cant remember the extent of losses but I recall it took 2 years to recover.

  • Upon completing more research, I hope to soon purchase long-term shares via a LIC or/and ETF. On the basis of only making a small handful of trades per year on this strategy, what trading platform would you recommend?

    • +1

      Not the OP, but I recommend SelfWealth.
      It has a great UI, (9.50 for all trades, and if you use the referral link generator from OzBargain, you get 5 free trades).
      ASX only, but there are plenty of good ETF Index Funds such as VDHG if you just want to have the 1, VGS if you want developed nations international exposure, VGE if you want high risk emerging markets. And of course there's VAS if you want to invest in Australia (and enjoy franking credits).

    • +1

      I use Nabtrade because the back office stuff is excellent compared to others and it saves me a lot of time. I have previously used Citi, MacQuarie, CMC, BellDirect and Commsec. I have heard VAS and VGS are reasonable options but get some advice on these from someone you trust. I don't use ETFs

  • +2

    On average; over the last 30 years, have you beaten the S&P500 index?

    • The S&P500 is a US index and I dont invest directly in the US so I cant comment. I have noted that the powerhouse of the DOW and Nasdaq in recent years is the IT companies. If you exclude the IT companies from a comparison with the ASX the market performance of both is similar.

      IMHO, if there is a significant market pull back due to a weakening US economy, the IT companies that have no reliable income or are dependent of advertising revenue will be hit very very hard.

      • is there an index that tracks accumulation SP500 excl FAANGs?

        • Almost certainly but it is outside my field of interest.

  • If a similar gfc event happened again, what’s your game plan?

    • +2

      If a similar gfc event happened again, what’s your game plan?

      Causing it

    • First of all quantify the pull back, if more than 3% quickly make an assessment about what is the catalyst for the event. If the threat is real but I am uncertain, sell 1/3rd of the whole portfolio immediately at market price. Re-assess the next day and if the threat continues sell the lot at market price. Trends tend to continue.
      And yes idonotknowwhy I may be contributing to it in a small way, but there is no one in the market looking after your investment. That is how markets work.

  • What are your views on bitcoin and crypto in general?

    • See comments elsewhere in thread

  • +5

    If you had invested in a passive managed fund like Vanguard Index International Shares Fund wouldn't you be in a similar financial position, with a lot more time on your hands?

    • I do not look at investments with hindsight. If you are not prepared to make a decision beforehand how is it relevant. History is not an indicator of the future.

      • Translation: Yes, I could have invested in that dang Vanguard ETF and chilled out hard!

  • when you tell people your an investor do they think you lead a "wolf of wall street" lifestyle

    • I don't tell people I am an investor. If pushed I say I dabble in the market.

  • Which books would you recommend for anyone wanting to trade their job for yours?

    • "Valuable" by Roger Montgomery is a good start.
      "One up on Wall St" by Peter Lynch is also good to start with.
      Investors Mutual a currently producing a series of papers called 20 lessons from 20 years. Best of all it is free.

      Here is another tip and this is going to sound like I work for the guy (which I don't). Marcus Padley (MarcusToday.com.au) has a huge library of investment articles. You can sign up for a 14 day trial which is free which will allow you to and download them.

  • Can I pay you to be my teacher and teach me all your secrets

      • thanks

      • +1

        Jack Bogle is the father of Index funds, is regarded as being up there with the top ten and he is definitely worth reading. Time poor people and those who are not prepared to commit to researching investments should follow his advice. It is passive investing, returns will be average, but the return will be better what than 80% of individual investors achieve. Australian LICs with a passive mandate are a reasonable alternative. There are pro and cons with ETF vs LIC's. The ETF will always be NTA after tax, whereas the price of LICs range from minus to above NTA after tax.
        I prefer to actively manage my investments to gain a better return.

    • It sound like work, so sorry it is not for me.
      Seriously though, I convene a share investors discussion group here on the Sunshine Coast. We meet once a month during the daytime and discuss all things shares. Membership skills range from newbie to very experienced. We experiment with model paper trading portfolios, learn something new, share our experience and finish off with a beverage or two. If any readers are nearby and seriously interested, PM me and I will send you an invite to the next meeting.

  • How many people in the house hold?

    What's your yearly income through investment?

    What are your yearly expenses?

    What tools do you use to watch the market ?

    • -2

      1 Off topic - no comment.
      2.Off topic - no comment.
      3.Off topic - no comment.
      4 Refer to previous posts, it is all there.

      • +2

        Off topic? AMA literally stands for Ask Me Anything.

        • +3

          The ask me anything about (AMA) "Investing for a Living" What relevance does my income, expenses, household have anything to do with it.

          This is more of a how to. I am not suggesting anyone follow what I am doing because everyone's circumstance is different. If anything I am suggesting most people not do what I do because they would be better off in LICs or ETFs.

          • @jhmtaylor: I think some of the stuff that was asked you can kind of derive from your other answers. But seriously, these threads people will ask a lot of irrelevant stuff, irrelevant to you and me, but perhaps important to them. Really, is anything they asked really that taboo?

            I would definitely say that people are a lot better off not investing in anything that know nothing about, and people really underestimate LICs and ETFs, similar to how a lot of people treat their super.

        • +2

          It does. But it's not 'I'll answer everything'.

  • I really like your posts, I like more the people who want to know it all for nothing and even more those that try to trip u up. But as you referenced the pain of 2009, and the upcoming pain of ? Where do YOU plan to go? 🤔

    • +1

      Here is an example of my investing behaviour. When the market pulled back over 3% in October I sold the 50% weakest stocks in my portfolio. I bought large positions in two miners that have a significant exposure to gold, that have a low cost of production. In a benign environment these stocks will be profitable and produce a satisfactory return. If things get nasty they will become VERY profitable, which will hopefully mitigate losses elsewhere in my portfolio. Under the later scenario everything other than gold stocks will be for sale at market price within seconds.

  • How big is your average trade? And how quick do you jump in and out? Days? Weeks? Months?

    What paid services do you use to cut down on your research time?

  • Bammers I have covered all of your questions in the previous posts

  • What's your view on Lithium stocks?
    Any direct good links or references (apart from the above mentioned) to learn more about financial statements and analysis?

    PS: Thanks for all the info so far. Appreciate the time and effort.

    • I hold PLS because they have the funding to develop stage 2 and end customers for all output. I think the outlook is excellent but without both of these criteria being satisfied, I would not invest.

  • Do you make any choices about where to invest based on sustainability and good CSR ?.

    • I do not understand what you mean by CSR. However I do not invest in misery businesses. I define misery businesses that make money where some customers suffer unnecessarily due to predatory behaviourEg Pay day lenders, casinos , other gambling stocks including Woolies and Coles, funeral insurers. There are plenty of way to make decent returns without getting down into the gutter. Disclosure, I bought MNY after they go out of payday lending.

      • Its Corporate social responsibility and it refers to factors such as the environment and working conditions. The companies you mentioned all refer to the effect on consumers.

  • How do you value a stock price? Did you do it on any paid platform (if so, which?) or did you build your own excel formula?

    • +2

      Whoa, this question pre supposes that I am willing to invest in the business, so I will have already done 95% of the work and I am now trying to work out what it is worth. Assuming it has an income I will work out the earnings per share and attempt to forecast how sustainable the EPS are. I will then try to forecast the average sustainable growth over next 7 years. Multiply it by a risk factor and come up with a fair value. I will also look at the forecast FCF and then determine a maximum. If I am in the ballpark, then I will look at the technical indicators over the medium term to identify the momentum and finally attempt to identify the right time to by into the cycle for the stock, with an eye on buy and sell interest. If seller volume outnumbers buyer volume, I will usually start with an offer jsut below the market. If buyers outnumber sellers I will place my order at market price.

      • Im interested to know how you go abouts forecasting 7 years out.

        It's pretty hard at the best of times with consistant business'es, let alone the miners and contracters you get into with their lives depending on commodity prices. You must get price ranges in the ball park of 500-1000% as reasonable.

        For example, price of oil being as low as $20s to $130, the possibilities of valuation for woodside would be amazing.

        • I have a look at the outlook for the sector and the business to see if it looks promising. I then take 3 year forward projections, work out a average growth rate. I then multiply the projected growth rate by 0.75. Forecasts are entirely dependent on assumptions which is why one broker says buy and another says sell. My discount factor gives me a reasonable buffer.

          Because of my conservatism, I miss out on a lot of opportunities but I am more interested in avoiding the losses.

  • Hey just what i needed!
    Have u considered in P2P lending?
    Im a young investor and really need some advice from a real investor, am at Brisbane too.
    I have investment property and looking into shares but got 0 clue.
    Possible if you trade and take some percentage? Thanks

    • Re P2P I considered it but I can get better returns elsewhere.
      Look around for an investor club to learn from others
      Subscribe to a quality newsletter and read it thoroughly.
      I am not interested in trading for others for many reasons such as red tape, compliance, responsibility.

      • Where is elsewhere? Ty

        • -1

          Many of the stocks on the ASX, commercial investing club to name two.

          • @jhmtaylor: Are you trolling? Why u got down voted?

            • @newbiesh: I have got no idea what makes the narcs tick. I am sharing openly what I know about investing and it is clear some followers find some of it useful.

              The fact that I wont share personal information about my taxable income, assets, banks accounts, family etc obviously gets up some peoples nose. The fact that someone has no filter and thinks that they can ask for such information raises the doubt where do they stand on the autism spectrum.

  • Do you invest in any companies that have business or dealings with China and the impending tarrifs?

    What are the future themes/trends you are looking into i.e. Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Healthcare (in Australia, Japan or China with the ageing population).

    • I will only short term trade stocks that have a significant exposure to China because of the sovereign and regulatory risks. For instance I bought A2M at $7 this time last year and sold it after they announced there half year profit. That stock was never going to become a long term feature of my portfolio.
      Themes I currently like are;
      On the speculative side with small exposure; Lithium (battery technology), AI (currently hold BRN)
      Gold producers as a counter balance to current market volatility.
      Consumer staples and some IT stocks with long term contracts and mining service providers.

  • Will my bal shares recover to $18 and I have a good Xmas with approval from China??

    • I don't know. See my comments about A2M for why.

  • +2

    You are self taught – what can you recommend to me to get into it?
    I've always wanted to get into it but nothing clicks when I read it!

    • Until you have some experince, use LICs or ETFs

  • I really need to look into this, I have savings that are literally rotting away.

    • +1

      Until you have some experince, use LICs or ETFs

  • what are your views about CFDs?

    • The leverage I find to be terrifying and I have seen too many stories about how that market is manipulated by insiders.

  • First of all, thank you for all the insight.
    Apologies if this has already been asked,
    What tool/site do you use for purchasing stock?
    Thank you.

  • I am self taught and have minimal formal training in investment .

    Congratz on your success. Just curious, regarding IQ etc. What's your IQ ? Did you always find things relatively easy to work out for yourself(from a young age even) ?

    I find I can work most things out for myself and I actually really enjoy it (if it is something difficult/challenging). If it is something kinda simple, just tell me how to do it. The more challenging the better for me regarding intellectual stimulation.

    • +1

      I don't know. I suspect around 100. I can work most things out for myself but I need to do it at my own pace. I don't think I am intelligent but I do try to be wise.

  • I am self taught and have minimal formal training in investment .

    Congratz on your success. Just curious, regarding IQ etc. What's your IQ ? Did you always find things relatively easy to work out for yourself(from a young age even) ?

    I find I can work most things out for myself and I actually really enjoy it (if it is something difficult/challenging). If it is something kinda simple, just tell me how to do it. The more challenging the better for me regarding intellectual stimulation. Also tbh, I like to find my own ininnovative way of doing things, though sometimes I find out later someone else had thought of it (but often people have a great new idea but don't fully capitalise on it)

  • Best way to make money off money you have lying around?
    Minimal effort but better than bank interest

  • That depends on your investing period.

  • What's the best investment option these days as Baby boomers took properties

  • Do you primarily applied technical or fundamental analysis? In the current market climate, what strategies would you recommend?

    • I have kept the stocks I feel most confident about, am using gold producers as a hedge. Other than that I sitting on the sidelines waiting for a clear direction in the market. The number of stocks setting YTD lows out number those setting YTD highs 10:1. So the sentiment is still negative. When the sentiment changes I will sell the gold stocks and buy some quality stocks that are now on special. The time to buy stocks is after the others have sold theirs.

      I find following link to be a very useful tool for timing the market. https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

  • Did you pay off your home first before investing? Or did you invest your profits to purchase your home?
    How do you justify homeownership vs rentvesting? Wouldn't it be better to just rent in a lower cost of living country and invest the difference in the market?

    • I paid off the house first. There are some well known commentators who say they sold their house, invested the proceeds and rent on the basis the returns are higher. That is not for me. Also in my mind I do not see home ownership as an investment, it is where I live and becomes an investment when I sell it and use the funds for some other purpose.

      I like the quality of the lifestyle, stable government*, security, healthcare, transport, environment, freedom, telecommunications etc that Australia offers. I visit the lower cost countries for recreation.
      * Allow me to pre-empt the expected rebuttal. Whilst personalities in Parliament come and go, Government still continues to function reasonably well and that is a great strength of our system. However IMHO I think it also leads to complacency amongst the general population and they do not take running of the country seriously enough.

  • +1

    For a new investor what is a safe amount to start with for stock investing? (% of savings or certain amount). This is not for high yield for short term but rather something to get familiar with the process and build up confidence while not loosing $ for fees involved.

    What other forms of investment would be worth looking into do yoh recon?

    Thanks

    • +1

      The last time I made this comment sarcasm was the response, but here we go again. You have asked an excellent question.

      When you invest, no amount is safe (with the implication cannot lose money). All you can do is manage the risk. You can do this by investing in businesses with reliable income. Diversifying your investments is a must.

      In my portfolio, I seek a return of 30% (which I have never achieved) on each investment within 18 months max. Sometimes after I have researched a stock and buy it, the market does not see what I saw and it could be 6 months before the share price moves.
      In a typical year;
      30% of my investments will lose money, but because of my research loses are usually small.
      55% will have acceptable returns but not meet my target.
      15% will be a screaming success.

      For newbies, passively managed LICs and ETFs are low fees. Actively managed LICs have higher fees and usually do better. If you want to know the LICs I like refer to my earlier comments

  • What are your thoughts on BLY stocks?

    High of $21.48 in 2008 now trading at $0.0020

    • I donated at the suggestion of my full service broker. That was one of the shockers for me. Afterwards I realised the broker had done a capital raising for BLY and were obliged to pump it.

  • For a regular investor like me, who wants to invest in low cost index based funds (50/50 Aussie/Int split), with a 50% gearing, what are the steps to take?

    Do I call up someone like a Blackrock / iShares and just go from there?

    • That is crossing the threshold of advice.

      I would research it myself or find a financial adviser I trust. Ask around your friends for a recommendation on a good financial adviser. Preferably those friends driving Mercs and not Kia's.

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