Will Housing Affordability Improve in Australia?

I feel I'm not alone in being really frustrated with the state of housing affordability.

For context I am late 20s with a partner, financially savvy, have a good income and savings yet home ownership is almost entirely out of reach. That is - without making drastic life changes that would significantly reduce quality of life (eg. living in a run-down shoebox or moving to undesirable areas with are significantly further from work, family, friends etc).

In other words- what I can afford now is simply not worth being drowned in debt for the next 30-years, I would rather continue to rent in shared housing or do something more radical like move internationally. For most younger people the cost of living pressures have only pushed the concept of home ownership further into the category of 'never going to happen' unless you are lucky enough to get a large inheritance or hit Tattslotto.

I would like to gauge the wider OzBargain community thoughts on WILL THE STATE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPROVE IN AUSTRALIA

Believe that as a country we need to strip incentives that make investing in housing so lucrative for already wealthy investors, find ways of increasing housing supply and fundamentally change the perception of housing as investments but as shelter.

Poll Options

  • 23
    Yes - Housing Affordability will Improve
  • 664
    No - Housing Affordability will continue to get worse
  • 61
    The situation will stay more or less the same

Comments

  • -5

    it will, but unfortunately no time soon. I am hoping i am wrong so i can purchase sooner than later. I have money, and ready to purchase another property that i want to get my kids as they are starting uni soon.

  • +13

    Yes, but it'll get worse. But I think it's reaching breaking point. It wouldn't be the political or engineering feat of the century to just have large, high density towers built everywhere. If the US can build a massive highway network that spans their entire nation, snakes through existing cities and countryside, then we can build millions of nice enough and large enough apartments and just pop the housing bubble, if we really wanted to. We could do it any time we want, this country belongs to us all and not just the property investors.

    • +1

      One of the problems is developers won't sign-up to build nice enough housing because they can make more money on "luxury" developments.

      • +13

        Why build liveable apartments when you can build twice more shoeboxes and sell them slightly cheaper? The problem is that these shoebox homes are targeted at investors. Young people have no choice to take up one of these at exorbitant rents and that just feeds into the cycle of building more of these apartments.

        • +1

          This is spot on. Started inner city, which almost made sense… but now they are on the outskirts of Geelong which is absurd. You live outer regional, you should have land.

    • +6

      Fine if you want to live in an apartment but many people (including me) don't. That's sh1t living IMO.

      • +12

        Everyone who hates apartment living is basing it off the shoeboxes we see everywhere in Australian cities. I grew up in an apartment complex (not in Australia) and can positively tell you, it was not sh1t living. Spacious bedrooms, plenty of people in your age group to grow up with, plenty of amenities near by, no backyard to maintain. It was not even a luxury-level, just middle-class. Getting good neighbours is based on luck but that's true for independent houses too.

        • +4

          Note I said IMO.

          Glad you enjoyed it but it's not for me. I didn't grow up in a flat but I've lived in them and don't like it.

          Each to their own.

          • @R4: Guy comes in hot with justification and context that excludes Australia, great addition to thread.

        • +2

          I also grew up in spacious apartments (great memories as a kid, and everything is closeby). Then living in one as an adult, it's a different story. Constant/alternating noise from renovations in all directions. Needing to book a lift when I need to move anything big in/out of the apartment. Rubbish shoot often clogged bcs renters don't care and they throw random things like doona down the shoot. Rampant issues with bodycorp, insurance, brokers who are all there to rip owners off. Most annoying thing is when one idiot out of the entire building sets off a fire alarm, everyone has to get out of bed and evacuate (by stairs). Basement parking can be easily flooded. We've also had flooding not from the weather but from someone accidentally reversing and damaging a pipe overnight.

          We also had a couple who bought the apartment next door just as a weekend getaway, so it's party Fri-Sun between their friends and their kids friends. Just constant ragers and there was nothing the building management could do. Cops have been called and even the concierge quit over altercations with the owner.

          Not saying this can happen to everyone, but it's such a gamble I would never put money down to own one. It can be nice one day then suddenly someone decides to rent it out and you have no control over how your neighbours will behave. Having a property that has physical separation or the fact that a house is more likely to have owner-occupancy (i.e. more likely to be mindful) makes a big difference.

      • -1

        More apartments for us then.

        • Party on Garth

      • Then pay more for a house. Those are your options.

        • +1

          cool. I can dig that.

    • +1

      Who wants to live in that though? Once you build them you're also stuck with it. We have so much (profanity) land, before we build concrete jungles in every (profanity) suburb and remove every part of nature from our lives and increase our mental health issues can we do something just as bat shit insane and flood/divert water into somewhere in the middle of Australia and create a new city? (profanity) even go as far as to make a new state and let the city start on the coast somewhere…

      • I'd live in a cave in the ground at the moment, if it could be climate controlled and had internet. Things are getting pretty desperate. Houses that were near worthless 20 years ago are now pretty scarce and valuable when vacant.

        • Caves are actually great for climate control (see Coober Pedy).

    • Yeah but the condition of the highway system is dogshit

  • +16

    Housing Affordability can definitely Improve In Australia. The only thing is it might not the kind of improvement you are looking for.

    The expectation or hope : Housing price drop! The 500m2 lots that cost 1m in 2024 is now dropped to 0.7m in 2029! Finally I can buy it at a comparable bargain!

    The reality: Building requirement/zoning law were forced to changed from immense pressure to increase housing affordability. The 500m2 lots that cost 1m in 2024 will still increase to 1.7m in 2029. But now you can get a new mini 100m2 lots for 400k in 2029!

    • +8

      There are plenty of terraces on 150m2 lots that are nice places to live. I like my 970m2 block, but I’ve also liked living in terraces, apartments and townhouses.

      • +1

        Right? My lot is 125sqm. The 2br single storey terrace is in pretty average unrenovated condition, and it’s great to live in.

        We have more than enough space for two people and a large dog: dedicated office, rear lane access and garage, small grassed and paved area, shed. Plus attic storage!

        If you built today on this lot using space cleverly, it could be incredible. Add a small second storey with a master bedroom ensuite and balcony and it would be suitable for just about any household of 3-4 people.

        I’ve lived in houses and units before, 750sqm, 1000sqm, 1br tiny unit and so on. This arrangement is far and away the best of all worlds. We need to build more of this sort of stuff!

      • Nice flex

        • Some impressive leases there, my share of one apartment was $90 a week.
          That was a while ago.

    • +2

      Isn't that called shrinkflation? Like when you're paying more for your Cadbury chocolate bar and it's come down in size by 20-40grams.

      • Probably. However existing landowners have absolute right to maintain their living standard(freehold on the land size) at that area compare to the potential new home buyers.

        The new home buyers just have to either buy another block elsewhere, or compete with each other and pay out the existing landowner.

    • Suburb?

    • +3

      Around 1000 empty places not rented.

      This is land-banking by investors. They're responding precisely to the incentives provided by the tax system.

  • House prices in Melbourne are falling. Anyone with a good job should be able to buy at least an apartment somewhere in Melbourne. If you are being picky well that's a separate issue.

    • +20

      Not wanting to live in a run down shoe box when you have a reasonable salary and a good profession is hardly picky. Most of use just want to be able to afford something similar to what we grew up in with similar jobs to our parents. That is simply impossible, and people say it’s asking too much. But why?

      • +15

        why is because we have run a migration rate much higher than other comparable countries between when we grew up 20-30 years ago and now.

        Why did we have such high migration? Because it keeps us out of technical recession and is the easiest way to do so. The alternatives - such as growing the economy through reform and good policy - are a lot harder.

        (per capita GDP is going down but as long as overall GDP is going up via increased population it's enough to say there isn't a recession).

        • +10

          THIS! We are using immigration as a means to stimulate our economy and keep us out of numerical recession. Instead of working to other reform measures, which are more challenging, we just bring more people in by boat. Of course, we have no infrastructure to service them and it means our kids can't buy houses, but politics is a 4 year game so it doesn't matter to them what happens over the course of 40 years.

        • +2

          Is either that, or we won’t have enough tax base and your salary likely be tax much more higher to pay for the pension liability.

          Either way we still can’t afford a house.Even with current high migration, we still have 3 workers supporting 1 pensioner. Without high migration we will have 2-2.5 workers supporting 1 pensioner.

          That means nearly around 20% of a person pretax income will be used to payout pension. Our overall personal tax rate has to increase at least 10-15% per person.

          • +2

            @workingpoor20: Maybe the pensioners will need to take some responsibility for the country they voted into this mess, and accept a smaller gift from the taxpayers?

            • -1

              @BobLim: Yeah. They have a lot to answer for with voting in the LNP so much in the 90/00's

          • +1

            @workingpoor20: wages would be higher AND demand for properties would be lower. I am not confident that we - the average working person - are better off with the current scenario.

            Pension payments are also projected to decrease in the future as more people have superannuation. It's the group of people who don't own a home and survive on Jobseeker or the age pension that are struggling, and will continue to be ignored while we are told we can't afford to support them.

      • +2

        Most of use just want to be able to afford something similar to what we grew up in with similar jobs to our parents

        The city you are in now has much more amenities than what your parents had 30-40 years ago. You can absolutely have what your parents had if you are willing to downgrade the amenities you are used to, to what it was 30-40 years ago. If you live in Sydney, can can move to Perth where there are still more amenities than Sydney 30-40 years ago and you're still able to get a house for 6X income within 30 mins of the CBD.

        • … this is the problem.. being forced to leave your home and move to the other side of the country worth no family and no friends

        • The city you are in now has much more amenities than what your parents had 30-40 years ago.

          That's simply not true.
          My parents had working-class income, I have firmly middle-class income, yet their standard of living and access to amenities was much greater than mine is.

          Unless by "amenities" you mean LAN cafes and apple stores.

          • -1

            @ssfps: Amenities is amenities. Entertainment, music festivals, plays, concerts, dance etc. Fine dining, food options, micro breweries, gastro pubs, cafes etc. Healthcare technology, specialists etc. Sports, rock climbing gyms, sailing, spinning, yoga, pilates etc. in 2024 are not like what they were in the 1980s. If you think they are then you can move to an even cheaper location. Where do you stay, how much you spend on housing and which one of these amenities did your parents have greater access to than you? Just because you don't recognize that amenities have improved leaps and bounds in the last 40 years, doesn't mean others don't.

      • +1

        'Run down shoe box'? You can get a perfectly nice 2BR flat in Melb for $600k. Perhaps it's a matter of your standards.

        Why is it impossible for the same amount of money (adjusted for inflation) to buy today what it could a generation ago? Simple:

        1. Population growth
        2. Income inequality increasing
        3. Assortative mating

        Each independently increases the house price:income ratio.

        Pretty simple

        • +1

          I understand the reasons. For clarity the “why?” Was referring to “asking too much”. Why do we treat people like they are greedy assholes for wanting to live in a decent home? Not why are houses expensive.

        • +1

          What is 'Assortative mating'?

          • +1

            @greatlamp: A phenomenon where like pairs with like - so you have higher income/more educated people coupling up with each other, thus increasing overall household income disparity.

      • Because our parents lived in a time of unsustainable land use practices that caught up with us as a society in the last 30 odd years?

      • +1

        not saying it's right but a "run down shoe box" is a luxury compared to what housing is like in cities like HK and London. ordinary workers on an average wage have no hope of buying in their lifetime, and most live in apartments of <40sqm. here at least we have a chance to buy an inner city "shoebox" or regional houses on an average wage

        • Oh to be a london or HK resident and be able to rent a 40 m^2 shoebox!

          I live in a lake!

      • That is the main problem.

        In every main cities in every countries the average professional worker can't afford landed propertoes since 10 years ago if not longer.

        In Australia still a lucky country until post covid….

      • No. It is picky.

        You buy what you can afford… and move up later.

  • +11

    I think the real question you should be asking in this thread is: “who here thinks they should be able to purchase their first home in a dream suburb with all the boxes ticked in their long lists of wants”. I think this will tell you what the real problem is.

    There is no shortage of affordable houses.

    • +23

      There is no shortage of affordable houses

      InB4 suggestions of people looking to buy their first house should move out to an unknown town, 380km from anywhere with little to no job prospects, in a town of 248 people with 18 pubs and 1 grocery store, high youth crime and an open policy on racism just to get their 3 bedroom, fibro and asbestos cottage on a dry, dusty plot, complete with chain link front fence and outside dunny, all for $48,000.

      I think it’s pretty hypocritical that the people that suggest that others should do this would never have done this to afford their first house.

      • +6

        Or the OP could just adjust their expectations to buy what they can afford now as there are plenty of affordable properties around Sydney for couples with two incomes and savings like the OP. Yes it won't be their dream home or in their dream location but it will give them a start on the property ladder.

        • +6

          I moved to Geelong from Melbourne and just bought a house for 630k in an outer suburb. I left my friend network behind because affordability in town has gone. The house we bought was worth 150k 6 years ago, it's now worth 630k. There is a problem.

          • @cunningdrew: I'm similar but moved from Syd to the Central Coast, my house value has gone from $400k to $900k since 2016. However, there are still lots of apartments in Sydney that are under $800k which should be affordable for

            late 20s with a partner, financially savvy, have a good income and savings

          • @cunningdrew: I call BS on a house that has gone up from 150k to 630k in 6 years that’s a 4x… there’s more to that story

            • @cloudy: It's not typical anyway, house prices have increased around 50% in geelong since 2016 as an average, not 300%. And in the last 3 years they have gone down, a little.

            • @cloudy: Regional Victoria prices skyrocketed during covid.

              • +1

                @Miss B: yes, its up a lot, but not by 4 times in 6 years

                • @cloudy: Yeah, it does seem a lot. Like you said, probably something else going on. Maybe Reno, suburb that no one was interested in before regional became popular, sold a little low pre-covid, a little high post-covid. Some suburbs might have had a bit more growth than average.

                  • @Miss B: Given there has been no reply since, i think Drew is BS. Happy to be proven wrong and shown a burb or an address that shows 4x growth in 6 years.

          • @cunningdrew:

            The house we bought was worth 150k 6 years ago, it's now worth 630k. There is a problem.

            Where did you buy a house for 150K in Melbourne 6 years ago?

      • +1

        Plenty of properties in South West of Melbourne to be had for $500,000 or less. Are you saying no one commutes from the South West to central Melbourne for work because it is too far? Or is op saying he/ she wants their cake and eat it too?

      • Unknown town? Nice Reductio ad absurdum. Perth is a literally a state capital city. There are more than 10 small cities with more than 50k in population with houses under 500k or 600k if you will which is still within 1980s single male income to price ratios.

      • Or just be top 5% income, partner up with someone else in the same boat and you won't have any difficulty at all

    • +8

      Sorry Boomer, you could not be more wrong. Kids are not wanting 4 bedrooms with a theatre, they just want a house where you bought one. Pull your head out of the sand. You cannot gloat in one sentence as the amazing increase in the price of your simple home and then in the other say there is no affordability problem for honest workers coming through.

      • +2

        It sounds like you are suggesting that the issue isn't about affordable housing. The issue is that the kids want to buy houses in the same suburbs as the parents did 40 years ago and expect to pay the same price?

        • So its more about the kids not adjusting their expectations than affordability. Inflation and economy will obviously increase the prices over the years. Expecting the same prices as 40 years ago is absurd.

          • +1

            @eatcroissants: Physical space is also a finite resource . As cities and the population grows the outskirts of cities expand.

            Altona in Melbourne used to be considered out in the swamps, now it's a sought after city fringe area.

            Expectations need to be adjusted to meet reality.

      • Lol this is not unique to Oz.

        Every country every major cities, no young person by their own can buy the same area they grew up in of its a landed property within 20km of the city.

        What maths aren u using.
        There is only so much land in that area where the boomer bought… It has not increased vs the increase in people in that area.

    • +2

      Where are the affordable houses within 30 min of work in Sydney cbd?

      • Please don’t tell anyone else, but Tempe/Sydenham. Old red brick units right next to the new metro station just sold for 500k each…

        Some of the crappier terraces may sell for under a million.

    • +10

      I was shocked to see how affordable Melbourne is. Go half an hour drive out of the city and you can find plenty of good, big houses for 600k. I bought one last year. Takes me 20mins to the airport and 35mins to the CBD.

      These people want to live right in the middle of the city and OWN a house there. It doesn't work that way.

      People just like being a victim instead of finding a solution.

      • half an hour out of the city

        Half an hour by helicopter? Half an hour at 3 am? Certainly not half an hours commute.

        • Well, I live there so I certainly know. Half an hour by car and train both.

          • @eatcroissants: The thing is that there are no “big houses” in Yarravile or closer for 600k and further out than that is not 30 minutes from the city.

    • +1

      what's the definition of a dream suburb in sydney?

      • Watson bay :-p

      • blacktown

    • all the boxes ticked in their long lists of wants

      This is so facetious. First home buyers are lucky to have two or three boxes ticked let alone get their dream house.

      Whenever I hear Gen X about how they “traded up”, inevitably their first house was in the inner city house 15 minutes from everything that just needed a fresh coat of paint. Meanwhile millennials and younger are stuck driving 2 hours a day to pay off the 30 year mortgage on their matchstick palace with a shifting slab.

      • I recall at least in Brisbane in the early ninties the older inner city suburs, like Paddington, Red Hill, Ashgrove etc were a lot cheaper comparred the outer suburbs like Kenmore, The Gap etc. The whole big backyard seemed to be enticing. Early 2000's the inner city exploded in price while the outer suburbs increased but not in the same way. Those people got lucky as their suburbs became more desirable probaly because all those Gen X's rented there when they were at uni.

    • You're full of shit. "Outer metro" now means 4 hour daily travel in the major cities with good job prospects for professionals, where they can afford the sort of hour+land that an average working class person could buy on one income 30 years ago.

  • +26

    No, housing affordability won't improve. It may stop getting worse from time to time. But eventually it will go up again. By 2030, only multi-millionaires will be able to live in Sydney. It will be a completely different culture from the rest of Australia, with only super wealthy people living there, although there will be a few poor, confused stragglers hanging on in dilapidated studio apartments on the fringe of the city, working in the service industry to feed the wealthy Sydney residents who can afford to eat out every day.

    Australia is an absolute s***show. I'm contemplating getting out of here for good.

    Number 1 concern is the price of property, but also the utterly cold and emotionless, self-serving greed that underlies the increasing inequality tied to the cost of housing, not to mention the increasing congestion and density of the major cities, the bogan density of the cheaper areas, the lack of decent public transport in some of the most populated cities, the fact that something like 95% of the population drives to work, the concern that Mr. Potato Head could be elected one day, the fact that local councils and state governments will spend billions on CBD developments that have luxury hotel housing for about 200 people (e.g. the recent Queens Wharf in Brisbane), when they could have used it to build 10,000 houses instead, the fact that any time governments consider the cost of housing they usually put in place another cash injection to help people into the property market, which simply pushes up prices even more, instead of implementing a policy that actually would address the cost of housing, the fact that the governments have been too cowardly to address negative gearing, CGT discount, and the attraction of investing in property, which are the main drivers of inequality in Australia.

    For context, I wouldn't worry too much about not being able to afford a house at 28. I saved for 15 years, bought my first property at 43, and it was a tiny apartment. You've been sold a myth by the media that it's normal to buy a house in your twenties. In my experience, a lot of people don't buy a house until their mid-30s or 40s nowadays.

    • +8

      Is it any different anywhere else?

    • +1

      At what point do the Melbourne and Sydney inner city properties lose value because there is nobody available to service them? Who runs the cafe, the cleaning company, the childcare? none of these jobs can exist for locals because the pay bracket doesn't exist for people to live there. This is already happening to some extent. I go through Port Melbourne and it's literally an outdoor retirement village. I kinda laugh. It was a thriving suburb, now it's just rich boomers buying coffee from poor kids who travel to serve them.

      • People will commute 50km+ per day to service these areas. Eventually the boomers will die off in these areas and their kids (aged 55+) will move in. The cycle repeats.

      • I live next to a share house of 4 or 5 Indian (fresh off the boat) guys that each work 2 jobs - 1 main and 1 "gig".
        I say 4 or 5 because i see 5 cars and people on a rotation, but from week to week i usually only see 4 of them.

        So that's probably what the future holds - an underclass of poor people (mostly migrant, plus young Aussies left behind) servicing the "middle class" of people too cash poor to properly maintain their median $2MM houses.

  • +2

    It's sad that some people in their 20's have given up hope. You've got decades of compounding in front of you, time is on your side.

    • +6

      Prices are moving faster than deposits. Ever wonder why they no longer talk about saving a deposit?

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