The Lucky Lotteries Mega Jackpot has gone above 19 million now.
There are 200,000 raffle entries to purchase; if someone buys all entries for $1.1 million, that person is guaranteed to get back 316,000 as raffle winnings.
Then that person is also left with a 1 in 47 (or 2.1%) of winning the Mega Jackpot (currently over 19 million ).
If you have a spare 1.1 million, would you take this gamble?
I wouldn't do it with just 1.1 million, but If I had 20+ million in wealth, I would.
The expected value is 404k though.
40x return
but the chance to just lose the money it are so big, 98%. You are basically going to lose the money for sure.
It would only make sense if you have a really large amount of money you can afford to lose and can place the same bet multiple times.
98% failure rate sounds bleak
The odd is $17, my goshh, i put my bet to a horse priced $2 and still lose not even saying betting to a $17 horse 🤣🥲
What's interesting about the jackpot lotteries is that once the jackpot reaches a certain amount, the expected value actually becomes positive, meaning it could be considered a sound or 'in the money' investment, at least from a statistical point of view.
The same can't be said for most other lotteries simply because there can be more than one winner, so the first division dividend is never guaranteed.
Given that the chance of winning the Mega Jackpot is 1 in 9,483,168, that means any jackpot over $52,157,424 ($5.50 x 9,483,168) qualifies. But that's without factoring in the non-jackpot prizes, so the actual amount would be even less than $52,157,424.
The biggest ever Mega Jackpot prize won was $96,040,000 back in 2019.
And all that is, of course, assuming the lottery is run legitimately and that everything is above board.
true although statistically sound doesn't equate to real life sound unless you are a syndicate that can make entries at scale - not something most people will do
46 chances out of 47 that you lose. Not for this little black duck.
All in AAPL or GOOG or both
I wouldn't gamble it because money is subject to the law of diminishing returns. For 800k you can have a house paid off in many parts of the country, which is meaningful.
$19 million would make a big difference, but still it may not be as big as you think.
Where was the "Better invest in Dog Wif Hat" coins option?
I think the saddest part of this survey is there are 27 people that would take this horrible risk that has worse returns than a bookie or casino if they had 20+million. Those people are unlikely to ever have 20+million with such poor math skills.
Heck no. 800k can still buy a house, in some areas.
you say if you had $20mill you would take that bet, but would you really? Forget about the fact that its a bad bet, but going from a net worth of $20m to $39m, is the extra $19m going to make that much of a difference to your life? I would suggest its unlikely to make any difference at all so can't see any reason you would want to.
That's a pretty bold offer on the table. I'd have to seriously think it over. Sure, winning $19 million sounds amazing, but staking $800k with odds of 1 in 47 feels like a bit of a stretch.
It's like hoping to hit a jackpot in a crowded casino! I'd likely err on the side of caution. That kind of money could be put to better use, like supporting a cause or even investing in something more reliable, like the projects supported by The Mulligans check them out at https://themulligans.org . What do you reckon? Are you leaning towards taking the plunge or playing it safe like me?
Geez, I probably I wouldn't even bet $10k if it gave me a 1 in 47 chances of winning 19 million