The Huge Hidden Cost of Plug in Hybrids (PHEV)

ozzieblue on 10/11/2023 - 09:04
Last edited 29/11/2023 - 11:18

Thought I would share some useful info for fellow ozbargainers.

I have been doing research on PHEV's to see if I can make use of the ATO FBT exception on a novated lease before it gets removed in 2025 (just for PHEV's). I thought PHEV initially made sense as these cars give you a good compromise of electric around town and petrol for longer journeys reducing your fuel cost. They also have the added bonus of more torque at lower speeds.

Because you recharge overnight (assumption), you are essentially are using pure electric for at least 50km every day.

So if you drive 50km a day, that's 365 cycles of the battery a year. It would not be unreasonable to say that after 8 years you probably are getting close to 2000 cycles of the battery (with gaps in your daily drive).

And for the record, if you had a cheap source of electricity you would have saved loads of fuel without giving up range on those long trips.

But here is the catch, you will need to replace that battery. That is a fact.

So I phoned some service departments and found out pricing on replacement batteries. Of course in 8 years time (standard warranty on batteries), these could be a lot more or a lot less.

Mazda CX-60 PHEV p50e - 36k without labour.
Outlander PHEV - 12-15k without labour.
Xtrail e-power (not PHEV but like a PHEV) - 9.5k without labour.
kia sorento PHEV - 15-20k
sante fe HEV (1,6kwH) - $12k without labour

Now this has just cut a huge chunk into the value of your car, with Mazda basically being worth nothing.

Sure you say, you will sell it before the 8 year battery warranty will expire. Well hopefully other buyers will know this information and will price your 2nd hand vehicle accordingly.

BTW EV batteries would cycle a lot less as they obviously have much larger km's on each charge.

Would be interested in other's views!!

As a benchmark, the Toyota HEV (eg camry hybrid) has a 10 year warranty on the battery and costs 3k to replace. Obviously not a PHEV, but close.

Some notes:
* not talking about EV's
* assuming a cycle rate of 2000 - you would need to do your research on this
* I would think battery warranties on EV's like tesla are better (they have capacity monitoring and specify capacity levels as part of their warranty). Not sure with PHEV battery warranties.

12 Nov Edit:
* To be clear, the only facts I have are the cost of the replacement batteries which I researched by phoning the parts department of a few dealers. Only KIA didn't have a price on the battery (now that is convenient), but the guy who helped me said that he had heard that number being thrown around. My only purpose is to share this so that you can take this into account when purchasing a PHEV.
* Another thing I think is fairly clear, but is not a fact, is that a PHEV will cycle the battery more than an EV making the battery degrade quicker.
* My guess on the number of battery cycles and therefore the life of the battery is the weakest point in my post above. I don't know what the cycle count will be nor the variance of that number. Also some commentators question the exact meaning of a cycle which is valid.
* Also a couple of people noted that a battery degrades (reduces range) first failing completely.
* A couple of people assume that a PHEV will just degrade to an ICE if the battery dies. I am not sure this is true. It really depends if the PHEV battery is only used to drive the wheel motors or if it is used in the electronics of the car.

29 Nov Edit:
Some interesting observations:
* The sorento PHEV is priced just under the FBT threshold of ($89,332) for obvious reasons. Compared to Canadian prices Australians pay approximately 20k AUD more for the PHEV. Seems like the government incentive is being soaked up by the manufacturer.
* According to VFACTS, there has been an uptake on EV's (no surprise) but the uptake on PHEV's remains low.

Automotive

Comments

      • ScottyDont on 13/11/2023 - 08:47

        I had to ask what it cost when they replaced it, and they didn't reset the BMU so the car still thought it had an old battery with low range until I updated it. My 3.2L/100km is also logged, 2.2L is great!

        27km with AC is still pretty good, you could use eco mode to drop the AC power a little but that's only useful if your trip is right on the limit

        • burningrage on 13/11/2023 - 14:15

          Oh that's bad. When they reset my BMU, it altered the wifi config so they printed out the new wifi key for me. Yeah, 2.2l is good. That is why I am so conflicted whether I want to ditch this for new Tesla Model 3 or keep it up with the new 2023 (2024?) Outlander PHEV. Cost differential is about $20k for a PHEV instead of full EV.

          The eco mode makes the AC slightly less effective and decreased acceleration as well. I don't normally use it UNLESS I am on a highway (80kms/hr speed minimum)

  • drprox on 11/11/2023 - 20:42

    I feel like everyone should know this but I agree phev is a waste of everything but most of all limited resources.

    • pegaxs on 15/11/2023 - 14:09
      +2

      a PHEV is basically taking the worst part of a BEV and thre worst part of an ICE, smooshing them together to make them way more complicated and heavier and making them 2 to 3 times the price of either just a straight BEV or ICE vehicle…

      • drprox on 18/11/2023 - 07:28

        Couldn't agree more!

  • Pootie Tang on 11/11/2023 - 23:09

    You haven't factored in the Wests thirst for lithium in countries such as Afghanistan etc and they prices will plummet in 8 years. Look at PV

  • SaveMeDollars on 12/11/2023 - 03:05
    +3

    The PHEV just becomes a normal hybrid once the battery capacity reaches a certain level. To prolong battery life it will not fully discharge during normal usage and the ICE engine will be the main resource of proplusion. It will use regenerative braking to regain/maintain battery capacity but unlikely to fully charge. All cars have some sort of battery management system. Essentially when the PHEV battery runs out it becomes a hybrid with additional weight. PHEV only makes sense if you can keep the battery topped up daily and drive mostly within the EV range. Longer trips have the benefits of not worrying about charging and reasonable fuel efficiency than ICE only counterparts.

    PHEV battery life will be similar to hybrids. The cost of replacement will continue to drop as we see more PHEVs on the road.. Once upon time Prius batteries were very expensive.

    It provides a good transition for people going from ICE to EV. Of course there can be a lot of discussion around the pros and cons but no car is perfect.

    • Brick Tamland on 12/11/2023 - 12:00
      +1

      The PHEV just becomes a normal hybrid once the battery capacity reaches a certain level.

      Seems to be a simple concept that is being missed. Also one that invalidates the theory that a PHEV battery is more limited than any other Hybrid or BEV platform.

      • Bigboomboom on 24/11/2023 - 14:04

        That is both right and wrong. Hybrid battery does not care if it degrades to 70% if it works, because Hybrid works on short burst and it was never the intention to store as much energy as possible in the battery. Hybrid works mostly in stop start traffic where you store energy from regen breaking at red light and then immediately using it to accelerate when light goes green. That's why Toyota hybrid works for a long time because that you hardly ever needs more than 20-30% of your battery capacity to do this in stop start traffic. As long as the cells doesn't go burst and you can't start the car it is working.

        A PHEV when working in Hybrid mode is a lot less efficient because you now have to drag a large battery around compared to a Hybrid. A PHEV main selling point is pure EV range albeit small. A degradation to 70% is significant.

  • morebunnings on 12/11/2023 - 08:35
    +2

    Batteries don't degrade 100% 8 years. Maybe 20%? So your 50-80km range would go to 40-64km.

  • hopper on 12/11/2023 - 08:53
    +1

    Thx, just ordered Rolls-Royce Spectra using cash rewards

  • miicah on 12/11/2023 - 12:50
    -3

    In terms of BEVs PHEV are the absolute worst. At best you are driving around on full electric, but having to carry around an engine that is switched off and just making your car heavier. At worst, you are using an underpowered engine to drag around a large car AND a heavy battery. They also don't have enough power to properly recharge the battery in hybrid driving modes so you are unlikely to charge the battery if you forget to charge.

    At least hybrids are constantly using both energy sources.

  • Kiro on 12/11/2023 - 12:52
    -1

    There is a Prius running around my neighborhood with roof racks and solar panels bolted on….. I wonder why.

    This is the main reason why I am not even bothering with EV or equivalent now. Battery technology that we have today isn't suitable for cars at this point.

    The only car I thought might be reasonable was the Holden volt with the solar panel built into the roof, small gen to charge battery bank up and Regen breaking.

    I still need a car capable of towing 2.5t and seating 6, this cannot happen with hybrids or EVs at this point in time.

    • Euphemistic on 12/11/2023 - 14:17
      +1

      There is a Prius running around my neighborhood with roof racks and solar panels bolted on….. I wonder why.

      Possibly a home handy man who has added a range booster or adapted it to be a plug in hybrid. Although it’s pretty much useless putting a couple of solar panels on a car. They use far too much electricity to get any meaningful charge from a couple of panels on the roof.

      This is the main reason why I am not even bothering with EV or equivalent now. Battery technology that we have today isn't suitable for cars at this point.

      I still need a car capable of towing 2.5t and seating 6, this cannot happen with hybrids or EVs at this point in time.

      They are getting much closer, but agree not really yet. New Kia EV9 is a 6 or 7 seater, not sure what the tow capacity is, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s close to 2.5t. Then there’s Rivian and F150 lightning available OS, but not here yet.

      • Kiro on 12/11/2023 - 15:16

        Yeah I wonder why sometimes when I see the Prius with the solar on it.

        Ultimately my trailblazer is doing 500km towing a caravan and seating up to 7 people.

  • dcash on 12/11/2023 - 16:08
    -1

    No matter how many cycles the battery is supposed to do, you realistically can't expect them to last much longer than the warranty period. And given warranty on batteries (no matter PHEV or EV) with all makes is around 8-10 years, we know that's essentially how long they expect the batteries to last. Once a good number of EVs start to reach the 10+ year range and people actually have real experience as to the failure rate of EV batteries, the second hand value of EVs will plummet.

    Unless you can afford to replace your EV every 10 years and are happy to get nothing for your trade in, you'd have to be an absolute mug to go PHEV or EV.

    • dji1111111 on 14/11/2023 - 08:49
      +1

      Not a real evidence. So now the warranty period is equal to expected life expectancy of batteries? Lol does that apply to EVs only or any other consumer goods out there? I must be lucky old phone had 2 year warranty but used it for 4 years!

      There is a private rideshare driver on FB that has done 250,000km or something in his Tesla over 2 years and the battery degraded only 9%.
      Average person would cover less distance than that over 10 years of ownership

      • dcash on 14/11/2023 - 12:16
        -1

        Batteries (of all types and in all applications) have a finite life, and automobile makers are naturally well aware of what they expect the life of those batteries to be, on average. This is precisely why the actual car warranty for Tesla in Australia is 4 years, but the batteries are separately guaranteed for 8 years. If they actually believed the vast majority of their batteries would last well in excess of 8 years, they would have made the battery warranty longer. You don't have to be Einstein to put two and two together.

        • dji1111111 on 14/11/2023 - 12:46
          +1

          Everything has finite life.
          Oh right so car manufacturers with 3 year warranty thinks the car will fall apart after 3 years? Those offering a separate warranty for drivetrain thinks the drivetrain will fail after the warranty period?
          I'm no Einstein but i can already tell you are long way off the average let alone Einstein .

          I guess a rideshare driver with more than 250,000km on his Tesla should expect the battery to fail any second now, right? Lol

  • Drakesy on 12/11/2023 - 16:51
    +2

    NGL 17% degradation after 240,000km's fills me with hope, given that most petrol cars would largely be totalled at 300,000k's due to mechanical upkeep costs.

    PHEV's are the hybrid of the hybrids and do neither EV or ICE well. Personally, the battery replacement market is going to get disrupted in a few years as more and more EV's come up to their 10 year out of warranty era. At the moment car manufacturers are charging whatever they want because they can. A worldwide recession, rapidly dwindling EV and lithium prices will shake up the industry.

  • netjock on 12/11/2023 - 19:10

    Xtrail e-power (not PHEV but like a PHEV) - 9.5k without labour.

    That is a 1.8Kwh battery. These guys are just dreaming

    Until the day they can make a half decent effort OR the EU makes them make it easily repairable they are pushing turd up hill.

    • ozzieblue on 13/11/2023 - 06:31

      Yes the mazda (by far the most expensive) and nissan(low kWh) batteries are both bordering on price gouging. Once you.have the car your options are.limited.

      • netjock on 13/11/2023 - 08:53

        mazda

        They seem to be glorified Toyotas without the longevity and reliability. Family had 121, 323 but I wouldn't touch them if Toyota has an equivalent. That is why I drive a Corolla Hybrid rather than a Mazda 3

  • burningrage on 12/11/2023 - 21:40
    +2

    People actually need to own one and be honest to themselves about the pros and cons before making comments with hyperlinks as if they are Bible.

    As an owner of PHEV, I caution everyone who wants to get into EV/PHEV world to avoid disappointment. You really need to do the math. It is not that it is a bad car or technology, I am actually loving my Outlander but you really need super clear conscious before getting into it.

    Overall, it really has its ups and downs but in my opinion, the current pricing doesn't reflect that (ie: too expensive given its pros and cons).

  • WaveZero on 13/11/2023 - 00:18
    +1

    Don't forget to factor in that some PHEV the aircon system runs off the ICE system. So in summer you pretty much never use the electric motors if you leave the AC on.

  • bazingaa on 13/11/2023 - 00:19

    just buy a diesel Pajero and call it a day, Mitshubishi diesels engines are extremely reliable.

  • newbiesh on 13/11/2023 - 03:22

    Wouldnt these batteries become cheaper by time ? some of the current quote is also for the current demand/shortage.

  • a6ue6hqqoq on 13/11/2023 - 06:25
    +1

    I've had my Prius (not plugin) since 2009. Hybrid battery still going strong (touch wood).

    • netjock on 13/11/2023 - 08:55

      If driven regularly 300k/kms the battery can go up to

      If things do go wrong you can get reconditioned cells because there is so many of them around and it is standardised / easy to remove. Some car companies have made it almost impossible to remove the cells. You have to remove the whole battery. Problem is when those batteries are integrated into the structure.

  • DrSwag on 13/11/2023 - 08:44
    -2

    As we're sharing thoughts on EVs, one saving that EVs have is they pay no consumption tax for the use of roads.

    Speaking an opinion here, I feel that there should be some tax on EVs for their use of the roads; in a similar way that ICE vehicles pay tax on-top of their petrol usage*.

    *not to say that taxes for consumption of roading only returns to roading; I understand its just one big tax bucket.

    • netjock on 13/11/2023 - 08:57

      one saving that EVs have is they pay no consumption tax for the use of roads

      No you just pay that to Elon / which every car and battery company in the upfront cost. Whenever you go from 0 - 100 in 4s that punch in the gut feeling is pretty much the financial punch in the guts.

      • DrSwag on 13/11/2023 - 10:30
        -1

        A boon for the American company

        An indirect 'tax' on non-EV driver

    • burningrage on 13/11/2023 - 14:23

      EVs are already paying more tax than ICE in the short-medium term.

      Already discussed to death in another forum but the gist is this:

      1. EVs cost significantly more than the ICE'd equivalent (eg: Outlander vs its PHEV version) so state/feds gets more GST. This may be once-off
      2. EVs uses electricity more from grid. So state/feds gets more GST. This is recurring.
      3. PHEVs STILL need to buy petrol at least 4x in a year. In reality, average, once a month based on experience. So double taxed (GST and Excise). EVs do not but they use a lot more electricity due to higher battery size.
      4. EVs/PHEVs cost a lot more to insure from experience. So state/feds gets more GST and Stamp Duty.
      5. This is up to debate, but EV batteries cost a lot (as you have seen from other comments) so again, state/feds gets more GST which ICE cars don't.
  • surg3on on 13/11/2023 - 10:51
    +1

    Nobody tell the OP about regular hybrids that can cycle the battery multiple times in a single trip.

    • netjock on 13/11/2023 - 12:40
      +1

      and fake hybrids that are normal ICE with a battery that offers minimal benefits

      • surg3on on 13/11/2023 - 15:09

        ah yes. I believe subaru have the worst of these.

    • ozzieblue on 13/11/2023 - 14:58
      -1

      I have no problem with Toyota and HEV's. Those batteries are small and priced at 3k and have 10 year warranties. Also toyota has been in this game since late 1990's and quite adept at it. :)

  • idonotknowwhy on 13/11/2023 - 12:52

    What about Chinese ebay/aliexpress batteries like you can buy for the WiiU and PS3 now?
    For the PS3 controller, I had 2 landed for $3 for example.

  • assailantsky on 13/11/2023 - 14:14
    +1

    Pretty much the same fears/concerns re battery longevity and cost being pushed around by ppl and some section of the media in the early 2010s when the first Toyota mainstream hybrids (Camry) was released. "Battery replacement is $8000 for a $40,000 car" is what people were quoting back then. The fact is these costs never eventuated and the price of batteries dropped and the batteries were able to be recycled (for a rebate) by the manufacturer or reconditioned by third party mechanics for a fraction of the price. Thats despite the failure rate being pretty low and the longevity of the batteries being as robust as Toyota claimed.

    Battery technology has been proven time and time again to be reliable and cheap as time goes on. The price of batteries are only going to decrease and third party options will soon fill the gap if OEMs are charging the ridiculous prices quoted here.

    • sam223 on 13/11/2023 - 21:03

      What is it now for Toyota hybrid?

  • outlander on 13/11/2023 - 15:22
    +1

    Answer seems to be to force car makers to adopt open standards to allow generic batteries to be used

    Take the Outlander, for instance. It's a 12kWh battery, and you say the stealership wants 12K to replace it

    Bunnings sell drill batteries that are 4ah that are $40 each. That's 18v X 4ah= 72Wh per battery, so you'd need 167 of them to equal 12kWh.

    That's only $6.7K. Still plenty of room there to get it under 10K

    • burningrage on 13/11/2023 - 19:44

      The main issue is form factor. The smaller the size while packing more power (denser), the more expensive the batteries are exponentially.

  • sam223 on 13/11/2023 - 21:02

    How does it work for hybrid cars. Is there a similar cost surprise similar to EVs?

    • Euphemistic on 13/11/2023 - 22:00
      +1

      There is no cost surprise.

    • ozzieblue on 13/11/2023 - 22:43
      +2

      The hev batteries are small around 1.6kwh. Toyota hev battery is 3k, sante fe hybrid is 12k. I would assume toyota's battery is reliable as they have been developing hybrid tech for a while. I was surprised at the cost of the sante fe battery.

  • CowFrogHorse on 14/11/2023 - 09:14
    -6

    There are several hidden costs…the REAL problem is people think they dont need to change their lifestyle and habits.

    Lets pretend EVs are run on free electricity from whales and trees. Driving for hours a day to work or anything other activity is DUMB. There are only so many hours in a day, and wasting the equivalent of a WHOLE day every week is sad. Surely these people have something better to do with their time, rather than sitting in a car of any kind. Dont they have family or friends or pets they could do somethign better ? Society is dumb to allow and not penalise companies who require people to travel when there are alternatives. People dont need to work in an office, they can work from home.

    When cars are green people will drive even more, which of course means the need for more roads, and tunnels and all that. These are not free, they cost billions, and that means MORE traffic jams and MORE taxes to pay for these things.

    The real solution is of course DRIVE LESS, and get a life. It will be better for your health, mind instead of being a mindless robot who wastes their life away for literally ZERO money sitting in a car or train or hyperloop.

    Then again there are ZERO comments recommending anything like what im saying which shows how simple and dumb people are. Keep on wasting a day a week for ZERO money people - even here for free you are too dumb to think of alternatives.

    • Euphemistic on 14/11/2023 - 10:59
      +2

      Less cars is a good thing, less energy required, less traffic, less road building, less noise. Not requiring a car for your lifestyle is achievable but quite difficult in our Aussie society.

      I try to avoid driving by living close enough to work to cycle but am tempted by the ease of ducking to the shops in the car far too often when cycling is easy. Public transport in our area isn’t great either except if you want to head in the direction that ‘everyone does’.

      • CowFrogHorse on 14/11/2023 - 11:27
        -1

        Its especially difficult when most people dont even try.

        Facts are most people are lazy … its everywhere.. they are too lazy to walk down the street, kids too lazy to walk or ride bike. to their friends or school, they just want to sit on their fat arse. In return they pay for it by wasting their lives in traffic on a seat on a train or car or som eother box that moves.

        Just look how boring the answers are here, basically nobody has half a brain to come up with something original, they all repeat the same basic comment. Im practically the only one to suggest something significantly different. So far i have 3 negative votes, from lazy people who dont even try and counter my arguments.

        • Euphemistic on 14/11/2023 - 12:59

          It’s not just lazy. We’ve convinced ourselves that we are so time poor we don’t have time to walk places - yet many will hop in the car and drive to the gym to run on a treadmill in the mornings before driving back home to then go to work.

          It’s all a matter of actually thinking through what we do and trying to reduce consumption.

          • CowFrogHorse on 14/11/2023 - 13:33
            -1

            @Euphemistic: People in general are extremely lazy.

            How many dogs are in your suburb ? Im going to guess theres quite a few, and yet how many do you actually see get a walk on a regular basis ? By Regular i mean on a daily basis ? In my case for every dog that gets a walk there must be dozens or more than are lucky if they get a walk once a. year.

            Therse no other nice way to put it = those people are lazy. Theres always time to do the right thing like that. Even on the weekends these same lazy people never walk their dog.

            I could give many many other examples. In my professional life, i see how piss poor people are at writing messages in code and code reviews. Its too much for most of them to even write more than one or two words as a summary of their code review. Thats laziness again. THese people earn a shitload of money, theres simply no excuse for not spending an extra minute writing somethign worthwhile for their code after they spent a week on the actual work.

            For a more close to home example, look at how piss poor peoples responses are here. Half the sentences dont even make sense and are incomplete
            , they start with a statement but never finish it.
            I could go on and on…

  • bobolo on 14/11/2023 - 12:31
    -1

    Bottom line - EV tech/infrastructure is still in its infancy. If you care about depreciation, best to stay away. In 5 years time all the brand new EV cars today will be like VCD's. Phased out. replaced by DVD's and never used again. Then you'll have even newer technology around the corner as well

    On the other hand, ICE engine technology has peaked and petrol stations will still be around for years to come.

    • dji1111111 on 14/11/2023 - 12:57
      +2

      Depreciation? Have you checked out depreciation on european cars outside of covid period? If you think EV depreciation is any worse than that, you need to wake up.

      • bobolo on 14/11/2023 - 21:06

        We will see. Do you really think cars like the Ioniq6 are going to hold value over 3 years?

        Have a look at 2 - 3 year old teslas. Almost 50% off retail and most aren't selling. The OG PHEV - toyota prius are all basically scrap

        The silly forced "futuristic" design most of these manufacturers are using today to differentiate EV to petrol cars as a marketing strategy are already becoming outdated

        Time will tell…

        • dji1111111 on 15/11/2023 - 01:19
          -1

          50% retail? What are you smoking? What do you mean by hold value? Cars are depreciating assets. Don't get confused thinking the recent spike jn used car price is the norm lol

          • bobolo on 15/11/2023 - 12:38
            -1

            @dji1111111: Are you OK?

            You made a point about depreciation on European cars being a lot more vs EV

            I pointed out that 2 - 3 year old Teslas are now trading at almost 50% of what they sold for brand new

            Basically I'm telling you that you are full of s**t

            • dji1111111 on 15/11/2023 - 13:18
              -1

              @bobolo: I think you are full of the brown stuff haha
              Or you can continue to pretend like you have crystal ball and say "time will tell". Wow thanks sherlock. Nobody would have figured that out if you didnt remind others "time will tell"

              • bobolo on 15/11/2023 - 13:35
                -1

                @dji1111111: Mad response!!! Damn you really put me in my place…man you are so good at this….

                Let us know if you have anything to say about how wrong you were with deprecation on European vs EV cars

                • dji1111111 on 16/11/2023 - 03:01
                  -1

                  @bobolo: all i know is that you are full of brown stuff and can't even do basic maths lol
                  The cheapest 2021 Tesla Model 3 listed on carsales in the entire nation is $44,900 (Standard Range Plus). so you are claiming this person paid almost $90,000 when brand new?
                  Your fictional imagination is not fact lol

                  • bobolo on 16/11/2023 - 10:47
                    -1

                    @dji1111111: Even someone as full of s**t as you may have enough brains left in your body to know that list price has nothing to do with what these cars are transacting for? So if someone lists it for $120k I guess they doubled in value?

                    Being in the industry I know for a fact that these 2 - 3 year old Teslas are trading hands for a lot less than what they're being advertised for.

                    Also I did say "almost 50%" if you can even comprehend basic English

                    ALSO, a 30% - 40% depreciation on a 2 year old EV is still significantly more depreciation than their Euro ICE counterparts in the past 2 years, which means you are still WRONG with your initial claims

                    Keep fighting buddy maybe you'll get something right someday

                    • dji1111111 on 16/11/2023 - 10:55
                      -1

                      @bobolo: Wow didn't think someone can be as thick as you. Are you even capable of basic comprehension? I picked the cheapest one listed across the entire nation lol i didnt pick a dreamer listing with unrealistic price.

                      Is that too much for you to comprehend. Maybe ask a primary school kid for some help lol

                      Almost 50% to now 30-40%? Which is it sherlock?

                      • bobolo on 16/11/2023 - 11:20

                        @dji1111111: LOL…wow…lowest listed in the nation doesn't mean it will still sell for that price. How can you be this daft? The "cheapest listed in the nation" is priced at $40k for a reason - because it has 150,000+ kms on it. Nobody is offering him $40k for it. They are offering him $30k - $35k. This is where the market is - not what the seller put up as the listed price. Have you ever bought or sold anything that requires negotiation before? Simply pathetic.

                        AND you still haven't addressed how you're wrong about EV vs Euro cars depreciating. 30%, 40%, 50% - you're still wrong

    • Euphemistic on 14/11/2023 - 13:06
      +1

      EV infrastructure is far enough along that the majority of city dwellers will never have an issue getting a charge - assuming they have their own driveway. Yes, it’s not great for those who only have on street parking (why do you need a car?), but there’s enough chargers to cater for the numbers of EVs we have. Chargers are increasing as EV take up increases. Supply and demand surprisingly enough. Electricity is ‘everywhere’

      The main EV technology that is changing is battery chemistry and management. Motors are very well developed. Charging ports are getting close to being standardised and an adaptor plug will be pretty cheap in the scheme of things anyway. You’ll still be able to charge you current EV technology basically forever. Electricity doesn’t really change much. Battery tech now is showing that EVs last a similar amount of time to ICE and the price is getting much closer to parity with ICE. Depreciation won’t really be much different from ICE vehicles. We’re moving away from luxury EVs and slowly getting more corolla equivalents delivered at not much more $ that a corolla.

      On the other hand, ICE fuel is only going to increase in price making ICE driving less and less attractive. Have you not seen the price of fuel in the last couple of years? It’s not going to get any better. Slowly petrol will phase out to be a niche product.

      • bobolo on 14/11/2023 - 20:54

        Yep and everyone said the same thing when DVD's came out. Cannot possibly become better quality. Then came along Blu Rays…and several more iterations later we now have 8k res screens

        Porsche has alreayd developed synthetic petrol technology which is both sustainable and cheap

        Time will tell….

        • Euphemistic on 14/11/2023 - 21:35

          I’m not saying new/better won’t come along. I’m saying that current EVs will not be made ‘obsolete’ by new tech any more than 10yo cars are obsolete because of new tech right now. They’ll still work and whileever there’s electricity they will be able to be used.

          ICE cars on the other hand are on the chopping block. Fossil fuels are going to be phased out and they will become obsolete- unless you upgrade the motor like some people are already doing. Retro fitting an EV drivetrain for modern efficiency and vintage style is a thing people do.

          Synthetic petrol is not cheap and it’s certainly nowhere as energy efficient as an EV powered by renewables. It’ll be a niche product to keep noisy smelly engines running at best. (Yes, the grid isn’t renewable yet but it’s only increasing)

          Hydrogen won’t be used in great numbers either because it’s too energy intensive to collect.

  • serpserpserp on 14/11/2023 - 13:55

    PHEVs will be obsolete in 5 years anyway. By that time I wouldn't be surprised if EV long range models are 900-1100km a charge. Which means range anxiety will be a thing of the past.

    • Euphemistic on 14/11/2023 - 16:03

      I can’t see 900-1000km being common at all. Fast charging a 400km range vehicle is far better. You can get away with a lot less battery capacity and if you don’t need to stop for 10min or longer after 400km I’d be very surprised. Very few people would actually use anywhere near 900km of range. I’d be surprised if people regularly use more than half a battery so why put it in a car and add weight and expense. Yes, on holidays you want 400km range but during the week when you plug in every other night ….

      More range is good in a petrol vehicle because it’s a pain to have to go out of the way to get fuel. When you can recharge wherever you stop it’s a different ball game.

      • serpserpserp on 14/11/2023 - 22:00

        The battery tech is changing and getting more range for similar weight. The point would not be to drive it 900km on the dot, but it stops the range anxiety. People want to stop every 4-5 hours on long haul trips anyway, it's more about knowing you can make it to the next charger if at 400km range the one you wanted is full. At the moment with the infrastructure, and same range, everyone targets the same chargers on long trips out of capital cities. I would say in 5 years we'll have better charging infrastructure, but with much longer range, charging infrastructure also won't be as critical (except for all those early adopters).

  • 10fps on 14/11/2023 - 17:23

    Surely batteries get cheaper in the future.

    • Brick Tamland on 14/11/2023 - 21:13

      Inflation says hi

      • pegaxs on 15/11/2023 - 14:20
        +1

        Economies of scale says "back in your box…"

  • cenakhoa on 14/11/2023 - 19:59

    Op’s consideration is true indeed. But your battery replacement is for the next 8 years which will be significantly reduced from now. In other word, OP’s made a call for battery quote but those quotes are for an 8-year-old phev only but phev has just been available recently

  • johno3456 on 14/11/2023 - 22:09

    You dont buy an EV and keep it until the batteries need replacing.
    You buy it because of the FBT exemption and sell it once it is out of lease. You dont keep lease cars.
    Or you buy it because it is fun to drive. They have great acceleration around town.

    For an ICE car you end up paying more as FBT is payable each and every year on the purchase price (reduced by 1/3 after 4 years). OK, you dont have the FBT with an EV car, but you are still paying the lease fees. If you plan to keep it, consider a car loan instead or buy something cheaper and save the money until you can afford it.

    Dont forget you buy with pre-tax money and sell and collect tax free money. You do have to pay off a balloon payment but it can offer significant after tax savings.

  • jaimex2 on 15/11/2023 - 18:25

    You are bang on. This is also why Chinese EVs are so rubbish. Every single one of them is cheap because they cycle those small batteries hard.

Login or Join to leave a comment
Login Join