The Huge Hidden Cost of Plug in Hybrids (PHEV)

Thought I would share some useful info for fellow ozbargainers.

I have been doing research on PHEV's to see if I can make use of the ATO FBT exception on a novated lease before it gets removed in 2025 (just for PHEV's). I thought PHEV initially made sense as these cars give you a good compromise of electric around town and petrol for longer journeys reducing your fuel cost. They also have the added bonus of more torque at lower speeds.

Because you recharge overnight (assumption), you are essentially are using pure electric for at least 50km every day.

So if you drive 50km a day, that's 365 cycles of the battery a year. It would not be unreasonable to say that after 8 years you probably are getting close to 2000 cycles of the battery (with gaps in your daily drive).

And for the record, if you had a cheap source of electricity you would have saved loads of fuel without giving up range on those long trips.

But here is the catch, you will need to replace that battery. That is a fact.

So I phoned some service departments and found out pricing on replacement batteries. Of course in 8 years time (standard warranty on batteries), these could be a lot more or a lot less.

Mazda CX-60 PHEV p50e - 36k without labour.
Outlander PHEV - 12-15k without labour.
Xtrail e-power (not PHEV but like a PHEV) - 9.5k without labour.
kia sorento PHEV - 15-20k
sante fe HEV (1,6kwH) - $12k without labour

Now this has just cut a huge chunk into the value of your car, with Mazda basically being worth nothing.

Sure you say, you will sell it before the 8 year battery warranty will expire. Well hopefully other buyers will know this information and will price your 2nd hand vehicle accordingly.

BTW EV batteries would cycle a lot less as they obviously have much larger km's on each charge.

Would be interested in other's views!!

As a benchmark, the Toyota HEV (eg camry hybrid) has a 10 year warranty on the battery and costs 3k to replace. Obviously not a PHEV, but close.

Some notes:
* not talking about EV's
* assuming a cycle rate of 2000 - you would need to do your research on this
* I would think battery warranties on EV's like tesla are better (they have capacity monitoring and specify capacity levels as part of their warranty). Not sure with PHEV battery warranties.

12 Nov Edit:
* To be clear, the only facts I have are the cost of the replacement batteries which I researched by phoning the parts department of a few dealers. Only KIA didn't have a price on the battery (now that is convenient), but the guy who helped me said that he had heard that number being thrown around. My only purpose is to share this so that you can take this into account when purchasing a PHEV.
* Another thing I think is fairly clear, but is not a fact, is that a PHEV will cycle the battery more than an EV making the battery degrade quicker.
* My guess on the number of battery cycles and therefore the life of the battery is the weakest point in my post above. I don't know what the cycle count will be nor the variance of that number. Also some commentators question the exact meaning of a cycle which is valid.
* Also a couple of people noted that a battery degrades (reduces range) first failing completely.
* A couple of people assume that a PHEV will just degrade to an ICE if the battery dies. I am not sure this is true. It really depends if the PHEV battery is only used to drive the wheel motors or if it is used in the electronics of the car.

29 Nov Edit:
Some interesting observations:
* The sorento PHEV is priced just under the FBT threshold of ($89,332) for obvious reasons. Compared to Canadian prices Australians pay approximately 20k AUD more for the PHEV. Seems like the government incentive is being soaked up by the manufacturer.
* According to VFACTS, there has been an uptake on EV's (no surprise) but the uptake on PHEV's remains low.

Comments

    • +1

      school

      • Uni

        • +2

          Lamp.

    • -2

      I have four years of university maths under my belt. Not sure if that matters though. I don't even like maths, but I suppose I'm good at it. Off topic but if you told me I would be doing 4th year maths at uni when I was in year 12 I would have laughed at you. Strange how life works out.

      • +1

        Well, at least you spell it right.

  • +7

    Even ICE cars need their batteries changed every now and then.

    • +6

      OP is in for a rude shock when they ring back and get a quote to replace a diesel or petrol engine that runs out of warranty after 5 years…

      • +26

        ha ha - true - engines cost a bomb to replace but expected life on engines are a lot higher….

        Say a battery is 2000 cycles, then this equates to 100,000km (50km * 2000)
        Petrol engine expected life is probably over 200,000km
        Diesel engine expected life is probably over 400,000km

        • +34

          expected life on engines are a lot higher….

          Also engines usually don't need to be fully replaced to get extra life out them, you can get by with minor upgrades so the 'engine replacement' argument is not a valid one. Back in the day when Taxis were all Commodores and Falcons these things would regularly clock up 400,000km+

          • +69

            @1st-Amendment: Jesus H Christ this bullshit flows thick and fast here… surprised jv hasn't been past to drop a misinformation nugget or two…

            Say a battery is 2000 cycles, then this equates to 100,000km (50km * 2000)

            That's not how it works. When they talk about "battery cycles" they mean FULL battery cycles (charging from 80% back to 100% is NOT a full cycle). Added to that, AFTER the "2000 cycles", the battery still has range, but instead of 50km, it may be 30~40km instead. The range will degrade over time, it seldom just "stops working" at this magical "2000 cycles", kind of like how a petrol engine loses power and uses more fuel as it wears out.

            Petrol engine expected life is probably over 200,000km

            Now, to get an engine to a life expectancy of over 200,000km, there is A LOT of servicing that is required to be done to maintain an engine, and some of those maintenance services can run well into the thousands (timing belts for one). The servicing for an electric motor and battery back is basically "No broken connectors? Cables are all secure? Good to go". So, replacing a battery pack at 300,000km (A combined 100,000km travelled on the battery and 200,000 on the petrol engine) sounds pretty reasonable to me.

            Also engines usually don't need to be fully replaced to get extra life out them, you can get by with minor upgrades

            Battery packs are the same. It is usually one or a few cells or a bank of cells that need replacing, not the whole pack.

            Back in the day when Taxis were all Commodores and Falcons these things would regularly clock up 400,000km+

            Oh, so you mean the current taxi vehicle of choice, the Camry Hybrid, is doing the same amount of km? We service some of the local Camry Hybrids for a taxi company here, and some are up around the 500~600,000km mark. Never had to touch the battery part of the system other than checking the cooling filters and that the battery connectors are not loose.

              • +21

                @1st-Amendment:

                A few less kw is much more bearable than a few dozen less km in a vehicle that already has crap range.

                You dont just lose kW… you lose range as well. But I get it, that doesn't suit your bullshit spreading agenda.

                Like changing the oil?

                Like changing a timing belt. I literally mentioned this in my reply above. On some cars, this can take almost a whole day. Priced up a set of iridium spark plugs for a V8 lately? Or how about the spark plug change on a Toyota 86 where they almost have to remove the engine to get to them?

                Let me see your quotes for this job and we'll see how it compares to the $40 it costs me to change my oil…

                You are comparing replacing a battery pack with doing an oil change?? Grow up.

                Let's compare apple to apples, shall we;

                How about this, your engine oil change on your car, vs no engine oil change on an EV.

                Or how about, my battery pack recondition compared to your engine recondition.

                • -7

                  @pegaxs: Can't think of any new car that has a timing belt anymore.. your plugs argument is using extremes and exagerating .. Clutching at straws .

                • -1

                  @pegaxs:

                  You dont just lose kW… you lose range as well. But I get it, that doesn't suit your bullshit spreading agenda.

                  Maybe a couple of percent, but not 20% all the way to zero like with a battery.
                  Do you agree or disagree that range loss is higher over the long term with EVs? no agenda , just answer the question

                  Like changing a timing belt.

                  Lol, don't have one…

                  Priced up a set of iridium spark plugs for a V8

                  Nor that

                  spark plug change on a Toyota 86

                  Nor that

                  Sounds like BS to spread an agenda 🤣

                  You are comparing replacing a battery pack with doing an oil change??

                  I can run a car for 30 years by simply changing the oil, I know this from personal experience. How about you?

                  Or how about, my battery pack recondition compared to your engine recondition.

                  The point is that I don't need to recondition the engine if I look after it. You absolutely will need to replace the battery at some point.

                  I also have the option of buying an old engine from a wrecker and replacing it myself. The last time I did this it cost me less than $2k all up.
                  Good luck doing that with a battery.

                  I'll note that you never provided a quote for the battery replacement so we can compare… feel free to post this when you are ready…

            • +8

              @pegaxs: Indeed, I saw a hybrid Camry ex-taxi on marketplace last month 650,000kms & there are private hybrids around with 400,000+ kms still on the original battery.

            • +1

              @pegaxs:

              Jesus H Christ this bullshit flows thick and fast here…

              Out of interest, what does the "H" stand for?

            • -3

              @pegaxs: It's not just a degradation of range/capacity though, once a battery's life reaches that 80% mark it has far less ability to perform as it's supposed to in terms of regular operation. It won't be able to supply peak currents as well and is less stable.

              As it degrades further higher internal resistance also increases risk of overheating (which also means fire risk) while charging/discharging

              EVs are cool but I think the honeymoon period will soon end for a lot of people when they realise these inevitable long term downsides of current battery technology. Yes, ICE cars also have servicing etc but it's a bit more well known when making the choice to buy a car

            • @pegaxs: It’s a shame not all Toyota hybrid batteries can last that long, some only 100K kms before needing replacing and that’s 4.5K.
              EG. Crown Hybrid, reduces fuel from 10L/100k to 8L/100K which is 2000L of fuel saved in 100K kms but unless fuel prices are over $2.50 it’s not worth going down this route, doesn’t factor the hassle in of it going into limp mode and being near on undriveable when a cell dies and the inconvenience

            • -1

              @pegaxs: 2004 Xr6 turbo since new regular service basically oil and filter. ,spark plugs changed twice coils once. alternator once( tyres,pads discs not included as would be changed on ev too 185,000km (knock on wood timing chain still good)… Motor has just been warmed up…… How will your Battery be going 19 years later? Individual cell replacement would like to see if there are insurance/ legal issues there….Most consumers would buy a whole pack, hopefully aftermarket can bring price down but anything ev is price gouging…. As for the hybrid the petrol motor is doing most of the work and they are still young…..

          • +1

            @1st-Amendment: yeh we all drive like taxi operators.

        • -5

          This information is not exactly correct.

          Whilst initially it was thought EV batteries would last 8-10 years, in fact they are lasting much longer.

          But still the need to replace them is there and the much higher cost is also there.

          The fact is that EVs will become an environmental nightmare as either the battery or the entire car will eventually be junked and we know that these batteries are made of toxic chemicals.

          Tick Tick Tick

          • +8

            @HeWhoKnows: The batteries can be recycled, As much as 98% recyclable. Battery factories are building in recycle facilities because they know there will be a good stream of materials in the future.

            The fact also is that other than the battery an EV should have a much better drivetrain lifespan than ICE. If the batteries do have a longer lifespan as you point out then it will be worth doing battery swaps from wrecks, just like it is currently worth doing engine swaps from wrecks with ICE.

            • +1

              @Euphemistic: Again not exactly correct.

              Once an EV has been in an accident there is a high chance that the battery has been damaged. This problem has been identified with Teslas.
              So most EVs in wrecking yards will have unusable batteries.
              And same issue with used motors applies to batteries - you wont know the exact condition nor the amount of use they have had.

              Havent heard of battery recycling factories but so far issues with such recycling have been
              a) high cost to recycle so maybe not economically viable.
              b) a recycled battery will be less reliable and have a much shorter life span.

              This is what we know now.
              Going forwrd if there is money to be made, the technology will eventually be developed.

              I refer you to the following information I found on EV battery recycling:

              "Although the infrastructure to support the mass disposing of lithium batteries and then eventual lithium battery recycling isn’t quite in place yet, there are start-ups that have popped up to deal with this emerging issue.

              Another problem is that EV batteries are designed to be cheap and long-lasting, with potential recycling of their materials currently not factored into their production, making recycling the batteries somewhat tricky.

              There are currently two main techniques available in regards to how to dispose of lithium-ion batteries and engage in EV battery recycling.

              Pyrometallurgy
              This process involves burning EV batteries at high temperatures to remove any unwanted plastics or organic matter, and results in only a fraction of the original material being recovered - usually just the copper, nickel or cobalt.

              A common pyrometallurgical process for EV batteries is smelting, which is simple but also not very ecologically friendly as the process requires the use of pollution-causing fossil fuels.

              It also causes lithium and aluminium to be lost, making it a far from ideal way to recycle electric car batteries. Research into recovering lithium through the condensation of smelter off-gas, however, is currently underway.

              There is a technique that avoids fossil fuel use by taking the residual energy in the batteries, such as the organics in the electrolyte, to power the conversion process.

              Hydrometallurgy
              A common hydrometallurgical process for EV batteries is leaching, which is the process of soaking lithium-ion cells in strong acids to dissolve the metals into a solution.

              The success rate of recovering materials, particularly lithium, is much higher using this technique, but it can be an expensive and complex process.

              Up until now, mining lithium has been viewed as a cheaper and easier alternative to leaching, but it is gaining in popularity as EV use continues to grow. "

              • @HeWhoKnows:

                Once an EV has been in an accident there is a high chance that the battery has been damaged. This problem has been identified with Teslas.
                So most EVs in wrecking yards will have unusable batteries.

                That all depends on how much effort you want to put into battery reuse. Maybe it won’t be a simple straight swap out but within the battery pack will be a number of smaller modules that may be able to be separated out and repackaged into a battery case that has not been damaged.

                Of course some won’t be suitable, but I suspect there will be a decent cottage industry in repurposing battery packs. After all, if a new pack is worth $10-20k you could pay for quite a lot of labour to rebuild a damaged pack to be reused.

                As for recycling, part of the high cost with current recycle systems is low volumes and scarcity of materials. That will be fixed. If you can recover the recycled materials and refine them sufficiently, why wouldn’t they be as good as raw material versions? Have you got information on how they aren’t as good?

                Edit: I see you’ve added to your post since I answered.

                • +2

                  @Euphemistic: As per your last paragraph and my quoation, EV batteries are NOT RECYCLED AT ALL.
                  They are broken down to recover the usable minerals.

                  As for swapping out cells I think you are being extremely optimistic and show a lack of understanding in this area.

                  But as we move forward you never know what developments will occur.

                  • +6

                    @HeWhoKnows:

                    EV batteries are NOT RECYCLED AT ALL.
                    They are broken down to recover the usable minerals.

                    Umm, that’s what recycling is.recovering the materials for other uses. Re-using is different.

                    As for swapping out cells I think you are being extremely optimistic and show a lack of understanding in this area.

                    People already use parts of battery packs in conversions. I’m not talking about taking individual cells out, but banks of batteries. There are often several modules in a vehicle. It’s relatively simple to swap out a module here or there in many vehicles.

                  • +2

                    @HeWhoKnows: The cells have to be balanced ….. can you imagine replace a damaged cell within cells that are down at 80% ….

                  • @HeWhoKnows: the ideas of swapping cells ect probably comes from the prius - it was a cheap and fairly easy way to fix the prius gen 2 hybrid battery

                    If we learn from the prius, markets in which they were present developped alternative batteries for them usually with more efficiency, or different tech (ie lithium), so that may be some hope for phev/evs

            • @Euphemistic: Problem with Battery swap $$$$ , labour and generally not easy to remove and then it might test perfect 3 months later there is a dead cell……

          • +3
            • +1

              @us3rnam3tak3n: Yeah
              Thanks for that
              Amazing !
              Pity we are not doing this in Australia.

          • +4

            @HeWhoKnows: Just believe in the recycling fairy and all bee good. We've seen how good Australia is in Recycling, the plastic bag recycling scheme has proven it.

            • @cameldownunder: Yeah. we were shipping everything recyclable off to China until they said NO MORE!
              Then all the warehouses storing this stuff got filled up.
              Hohum.
              And our used tyres are being shipped to India to get burnt off.

              So you see why I'm cynical

              • -1

                @HeWhoKnows: There would be a huge opportunity for recycling IN AUSTRALIA, but ….
                Why is nobody embracing it? No support from the government ? Not enough Know-How ? Too much resistance from the public ?

                Example: Every piece of electronics sold in Switzerland comes with a Recycling Levi. And every electronic shop HAS TO TAKE BACK all kind of electronics, also if it wasn't them selling it. This way old printers would be entering this recycling schema, funded by the Levi.

                But I guess nobody wants to pay for recycling, it needs to be "Free"

                • @cameldownunder: Not sure if it’s still the case, but the NSW legislation used to be that if a product has finished its useful life it was considered waste and had the waste levy applied if you took it to the tip. If you wanted to do something else, you needed to get special permission to not have the waste levy applied. The waste levy was supposed to be used to promote and support recycling services.

                  Problem is it’s backwards thinking. ‘Everything is waste except if you get permission’ rather than ‘you can’t take it to waste unless all recycling opportunities have been exhausted’.

                  Sure, keep a waste levy on, but as other countries have discovered making manufacturers responsible for end of life costs changes the way they think and act.

                  • @Euphemistic: Levi was applied AFTER the useful life. Would be better to apply it WHEN YOU BUY it. To fund the shops who take the electronics back.

                    Have you tried to bring your old inkjet printer to HN and say "Here, please recycle for me" or go to JBHIFI, with your old 50" Plasma Screen "Please take this from me" ?

                • @cameldownunder: You are kind of correct
                  The cost of using recycled materials is more than the cost of using new materials.
                  Unfortunately the environmental cost is not factored into the equation.

                  hence no incentive to use recycled materials

        • +1

          The number you quote is a probably only true for European/American car, Japanese doubles that at least. If you're looking at a cost compromise of PHEV number don't stack but that was the same story back when Toyota introduced the prius and I never heard any complain about it except for the ugly boot, and to give you perspective the toyota hybrid used nimh battery which was and still way inferior technology than the current lithium most manufacturers are adopting.

        • FYI: I inherited my Grandpa’s 1990’s Audi 80 back in 2000 which had run 320,000Kms. He really looked after his car and did most of the service himself. When I inherited the car, I took it to Audi service centre for service and they were quite amazed to see the engine was in near perfect condition. When I sold that car to a collector in 2015, I had clocked another 220,000kms on it, so the car had done almost 550,000kms with no issues.
          I never had any oil leaks or over heating during my ownership. The ony issues I had during my ownership was
          1) Shocks were worn so I got them replaced in 2008 which costed me around $1300 2)Oxygen senor failed in the same year which costed me $500
          This shows if you really look after your combustion engine, it can literally work without major issues for a very long time(YMMV) unlike EV’s or PHEV’s.

          • +2

            @SteveD: How do you figure your single anecdotal experience proves EV's or PHEV's won't literally work without major issues?

        • Got 200,000 km out of our diesel rav 4 was heartbreaking

      • It’s probably $11 million these days, but in ~2012 a former club member purchased a brand new zd30 for just under $9k including installation, installation also included the labour for a cooling system upgrade with components he had supplied himself.

        • We did a quote at work for a LandCruiser recently and from Toyota, it was $48,000+, and that was our price for a long engine. The customer ended up finding a used engine for $22,000.

          • @pegaxs: Damn, that’s crazy. One of my relatives is a mechanic and regularly tells me horror stories about modern Land Cruiser repairs.

            I wonder if Nissan sold replacement zd30 cheap back then because the first version of them was so unreliable.

            • +12

              @mapax: Dont know, but I have heaps of engine replacement horror stories. Gone are the days where you can just machine, hone and slap some new pistons in cars. That's why you see hardly any engine re-conditioners around any more. Most cars are built as throw away items once the engine or transmissions give out on them.

              When I was working at Land Rover, the new V6 Freelanders had sealed unit transmissions. A lot of them come from the factory with faults requiring a recall of a replacement transmission. We could not repair them, so it was just old one out, new one in, and back in the early 2000's, they were about $17,000 then for a transmission.

              We were replacing the 4cyl diesel engines on Freelanders because the wet liners would walk out of the block and damage the heads. This was a vehicle with a $25k+ engine that was unable to be repaired.

              The days of "reconditioning" most modern car engines is looooong gone. The tolerances are so tight and how they are constructed just doesn't really allow you to fix them. You just pull them out send them to the recyclers and put in a used one. We have contacts with some engine re-conditioners, but there are a lot of engines they wont even touch.

      • I currently have a 20 year old Subaru with 350,000km on it and it's still going strong.

        ICE engines overall vastly outlast a car battery.

        • +14

          Anecdotal at best. You're experience is with 1 car. Good for you.

          I have replaced petrol and diesel engines in many cars with less than 100,000km on them. I have seen EV's with 300,000+km on them. So, I don't get your point.

          If I threw the amount of money and maintenance at an EV battery as I have to do towards petrol and diesel engines, I can assure you an EV drive system with about 5 moving parts is going to outlast a fossil fuel drive system with close to 1000+ moving parts to make it work.

          • +3

            @pegaxs: It seems counterintuitive for a mechanic to sing the praises of EVs. Do you think you will retire before they become the predominant form?

            • +7

              @us3rnam3tak3n: EV’s still need servicing and diagnostic work. I am currently in the process of upskilling to be an EV tech because of the amount of enquires we are getting to service hybrid and EV vehicles.

              We need to be ahead of the curve and I just laugh at all these other dead shit, old school mechanics and "armchair engineers" that say that EV’s are just a passing fad.

              EV’s are still going to break down, but they are just going to have a completely different set of issues that we need to train for. It’s a whole new ball game and those that don’t want to learn or refuse to learn are going to be just as obsolete as their outdated old shitbox petrol and diesel cars.

              We are currently in the “quickening” phase of EV’s. This is where the technology is going to go apeshit and evolve quicker than a lot of people can keep up. Like the early days of smart phone and the next few years, the development was amazing and mind blowing… but now they have reached a point where all the have to announce with a new release is more RAM and faster CPU. EV’s are at the early stage of smart phones with new technology being released in what seems every second week…

              You either upskill, or you get left behind…

              • +1

                @pegaxs: Thanks for the detailed reply. I kind of thought working on EVs would be more suited to electricians than mechanics but it's cool you can add that to your toolkit.

              • +1

                @pegaxs: I really admire your way of thinking, good on you, if only others were like that…

                All the mechanics I know will be out of business soon or hopefully retire before that.

          • @pegaxs: Your own cars have had failed engines or customers cars?

            In my own extended family in my 50 years no one has had a standard unmodified engine fail.

            I dont have a problem with ev cars and i would happily have one for running around town.

            But 20 years, 30 years how many ev cars will still be on the road? The ev drive system will not be the major problem its the complex technology that will be the problem.

            The problem is the way they are designed the car makers dont want the public or non dealer mechanics working on them (perfectly understandable more profits for the company)

            Companies like Tesla have restricted assess to most parts. What happens when the warranty runs out though?

            I hang onto my cars not for years but on decades.

            • +5

              @2esc:

              Your own cars have had failed engines or customers cars?

              Customer's cars, although I did have a motorcycle engine fail at about 2,000km.

              In my own extended family in my 50 years no one has had a standard unmodified engine fail.

              Oh well, that settles it then. I dont know why I've been replacing engines in these cars if they never fail.

              But 20 years, 30 years how many ev cars will still be on the road?

              About the same amount that there are of ICE cars that are 20~30 years old on the roads. ie: a very small portion. The average age of a car on Australian roads is between 10 and 12 years old. Pretty sure most EV's will survive that long. And the EV's that are being produced in the future with more knowledge and better technology will mostl likely last a lot longer than ICE cars ever would.

              The problem is the way they are designed the car makers dont want the public or non dealer mechanics working on them

              This also goes for ICE cars, this is not limited to EV's. More and more ICE vehicles are coming out with proprietary fittings and connectors and sealed unit drive components. This is where we, as consumers, should be boycotting any manufacturer that does not support the "Right to Repair" doctrine.

              Companies like Tesla have restricted assess to most parts…

              Step over here, I would like you to meet Mercedes Benz, BMW, VW and a whole host of other automotive manufacturers that do the same thing.

              I hang onto my cars not for years but on decades.

              Then you are exactly who EV's are aimed at.

          • @pegaxs: Yeah no you haven't

          • -1

            @pegaxs:

            Anecdotal at best. You're experience is with 1 car. Good for you.

            and your experience is only when things go wrong, see the problem there buddy?

            If you work in a hospital, you'll think that overall humans are very sick and disease ridden.

            Customer's cars, although I did have a motorcycle engine fail at about 2,000km.

            Seems like you're the common thread here.

            In all honesty though, an engine failure in a motorbike at 2k is an extreme anomaly.

            Are you being paid by Tesla or something to absolutely shit on ICE engines? lol

        • old Subaru's are popular on farms as a beater truck for this reason. They keep on going.

      • +1

        Terrible advice, terrible.
        No Petrol Engine is replaced after 5 years, my inlaws still drive a Mazda 3 2001 edition with 220K on the odo.
        The engine replacements are a rare occurrence and not the norm.

        • Engine replacements are usually the result of neglect. It definitely happens with regular services too but it's normally just people not replacing oil soon enough

        • +2

          No Petrol Engine is replaced after 5 years

          LOL… yeah, ok champ, I beg to differ (having worked in dealerships and independent workshops), but let's move on to your "proof"…

          my inlaws still drive a Mazda 3 2001 edition with 220K on the odo.

          Oh well, in that case. That's the new bench mark for facts… Next car I have come in that needs an engine replacement, I'll check that it is older than 22 years and 220,000km. If not, I'll tell them it's impossible for it to need a replacement engine, slap it on the bumper and send it, because "frostman's inlaws Mazda"

          The engine replacements are a rare occurrence and not the norm.

          Christ, I wish… Would make my job a lot easier.

          • -4

            @pegaxs:

            Oh well, in that case. That's the new bench mark for facts… Next car I have come in that needs an engine replacement, I'll check that it is older than 22 years and 220,000km. If not, I'll tell them it's impossible for it to need a replacement engine, slap it on the bumper and send it, because "frostman's inlaws Mazda"

            This comment must be printed and placed in schools to show people what the epitome of a 'strawman' response argument is.
            A weak, and baseless fallacy that the idiot responds with by capitalising on a specific item and conflating it to appear bad.

            The average family Petrol/Internal Combustion Engine will always; outpower, outlive, and outperform PHEVs.

        • +1

          according to pegaxs, even motorcycle engines fail after 2000km.

          • @coffeeinmyveins: Dude, he said it happened once and from what I’ve read he’s likely owned 20 or more.

          • @coffeeinmyveins: My issue is with this pegaxs person is, if you want to jump on PHEV, EV or Hybrid, go for it, but dont drop your undies and wave it around for attention.
            Neither does it make you a better/smarter human than us petrol folk, or care more about the environment.
            You can sit there and charge your shit on the highway from SYD to MELB whilst I zoom across and fill up my tank in 75 seconds.
            I can then sell my car after 10 years at a decent value without having to discount it by 80% because the battery is on its way out.

            Horses for Courses.

            And this wannabe mechanic says:

            Oh well, that settles it then. I dont know why I've been replacing engines in these cars if they never fail.

            LOL

    • $300 tops

  • +1

    Did you mean to say the battery replacement is only for PHEV s but not EV s ? It will essentially mean that EV s are useless after 7 - 8 years as well.

    Toyota hybrids (except for plugin) don't use lithium batteries.

    • +2

      Toyota has moved to lithium for generation 5.

    • +7

      The OP was trying to say that due to the smaller battery size (compared to EVs) and bigger utilisation (compared to pure hybrids), batteries in PHEVs are more likely to run through the cycles and therefore require a replacement. Together with a substantial cost of a replacement, that makes them less favourable compared to either hybrids or EVs.

      • +1

        Exactly what I was saying.

    • It will essentially mean that EV s are useless after 7 - 8 years as well.

      Pure EVs have an 8 year warranty so even if they did fail, they will be replaced. Pure EVs also don't do a full 'cycle' daily like the OP has factored in for the PHEV battery.

      Toyota hybrids (except for plugin) don't use lithium batteries.

      There are some hybrids with lithium batteries that are not plugin like the Toyota Yaris Hybrid, check out the table

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#High_volt…

      • right - makes sense. It is interesting that the 2023 RX still uses a NiMH but older smaller cars have Lithium batteries.

    • +2

      You aren't going to flatten an ev every day, more like once a week to now we are looking at 50 years until replacement. Additionally, 2000 cycles is low for a LiFePO4 battery which is most common; they are now 5000 - 10000 full cycles. Charging before it is flat will extend this significantly while fast charging frequently will decrease this.

      Really this is an issue with PHEV who end up with all of the issues of both ice and evs being ramped up as a result of the space, cost, and complexity of the system.

  • +11

    So I phoned some service departments and found out pricing on replacement batteries. Of course in 8 years time (standard warranty on batteries), these could be a lot more or a lot less.

    Those companies are taking the piss out of you. Its $17k for Telsa to replace a battery pack in a Model 3 -> https://ibb.co/fFW6Vq5

    Tesla packs are 10 times the size of the PHEV packs, but cost far less to replace? Hmmmm

    But here is the catch, you will need to replace that battery. That is a fact.

    LOL. PHEV has been around for a while now. So show me the stats of how many have been replaced outside of warranty?

    Also most ICE cars don't get over the age of 15 years before being scrapped for whatever reason. Crashed or uneconomical repairs to the motor/gearbox etc.

    Before you scream that isn't true, have a look around on the roads at the age of cars.

    As a benchmark, the Toyota HEV (eg camry hybrid) has a 10 year warranty on the battery and costs 3k to replace. Obviously not a PHEV, but close.

    and how many have ever been replaced outside of warranty?

    Our Camry Hybrid had over 160k on the clock before we sold it, well out of all warranty, the battery was still going strong. The funny thing is the ICE fuel system needed repairs though at around the 10 year mark at a cost of $1k plus towing costs. I say had, we have gotten rid of that and pure EV now!

    • Also most ICE cars don't get over the age of 15 years before being scrapped for whatever reason

      Even if 40% of cars make it past 15 years that's about 8 million cars.

      Before you scream that isn't true, have a look around on the roads at the age of cars.

      I did and there's plenty of 15 year old+ cars everywhere I look. I live near a high school and I'd say at least half of the P plater cars are older than 15 years.

      • +9

        I did and there's plenty of 15 year old+ cars everywhere I look. I live near a high school and I'd say at least half of the P plater cars are older than 15 years.

        LOL Very selective area you reviewed to spin it your way. I'll pop down to the yacht club and do my review now.

        But there is a reason P platers have these old cars is they are cheap as shit and WHEN they crash them, its cheaper to buy another than repair.

        Even if 40% of cars make it past 15 years that's about 8 million cars.

        If only there was a place that you could look at the stats… Oh wait there is https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-trans…

        Anyhow this is a nice summary for you

        https://www.drive.com.au/news/australia-average-vehicle-age-…

        Vehicles up to five years of age account for the largest proportion of the national fleet (30.5 per cent), followed by vehicles aged 6-10 years (27.2), 11-15 years (21.2) and 16 years and over (21.0). The average age of the vehicle fleet has not fundamentally changed since 2006

        Its only 21% of cars on the road are older than 16 years….. So 1 in 5 cars.

        So 80% of cars purchased new, don't make it to the 16 year mark.

        So the real question is, why do people get so worked up about a car having to last 30 years? ICE cars don't.

        • -3

          Very selective area you reviewed to spin it your way.

          You literally said to look around. I did exactly that then you didn't like the answer because reality didn't match your opinion?

          Anyhow this is a nice summary for you

          Cool you provided some actual data. So 21% is 4 million cars that you are pretending don't exist?

          So the real question is, why do people get so worked up about a car having to last 30 years? ICE cars don't.

          30 years? What happened to 15 years, are you moving the goalposts now?

          What do these 4 million car owners do in your new world order?

          • +3

            @1st-Amendment:

            You literally said to look around. I did exactly that then you didn't like the answer because reality didn't match your opinion?

            Then keep looking as you move past the high school and get a bigger sample size. I mean I looked out in my driveway and its 100% of the cars are under 1 year old!

            Cool you provided some actual data.

            Yeah real data, more than you have provided.

            So 21% is 4 million cars that you are pretending don't exist?

            I know reading it hard when you're frothing, but scroll up and you'll see I said "most ICE cars don't get over the age of 15 years before being scrapped for whatever reason", nothing about they don't exist. As 80% of cars don't make it to be older than 16 years of age, that is 100% the definition of the word 'most'.

            30 years? What happened to 15 years, are you moving the goalposts now?

            I can see reading it hard for you. Go back and read again.

            • @JimmyF:

              Then keep looking as you move past the high school and get a bigger sample size.

              You provided the actual number so we don't need to look any further, the number is about 4 million cars.

              I can see reading it hard for you. Go back and read again.

              Yes lets. If we all go back and read the thread from the top, the context here is that OP was claiming that PHEV cars will be useless after 8 years. You dispute that, which is fine, so the point we're trying to work out is that at some disputed point in time (8 years? 15 years? 30 years?) PHEV cars will become useless quicker than ICE cars, and in greater numbers. Agree or disagree?

              We now know that there's 4 million ICE cars on the road older than 15 years, will there likely be 4 million 15 year old+ PHEV vehicles in 15 years time?

              I think not. How about you?

              • +1

                @1st-Amendment:

                OP was claiming that PHEV cars will be useless after 8 years. You dispute that

                OP claimed the battery would be useless after 8 years, I disputed that claim based on their math.

                PHEV cars will become useless quicker than ICE cars, and in greater numbers. Agree or disagree?

                If you see my other comments, I think PHEVs are useless in general and I'm not a fan.

                will there likely be 4 million 15 year old+ PHEV vehicles in 15 years time?
                I think not. How about you?

                A PHEV and EV are far from comparable, PHEV are the worst of EVs and ICE mashed together as one and should die a quick death from being sold. But anyhow we have old EVs and PHEV on the road now.

                The question is will 20% of BEVs be still on the road after 15 years like ICE cars?

                It's not a stretch at all. But the point is 80% of ICE cars don't even make it to 15 years of age but no one wants to talk about that, only the fact they think EVs won't make it!

                • @JimmyF:

                  A PHEV and EV are far from comparable,

                  And I don't think anyone was doing that comparison…

                  But the point is 80% of ICE cars don't even make it to 15 years of age but no one wants to talk about that

                  We've been talking about it quite a bit actually…

                  only the fact they think EVs won't make it!

                  You mean PHEVs? The discussion was that due to the higher cycle count (you said this not me) the batteries won't last as long, so PHEV is likely to have a shorter lifespan due to the costs involved to keep them on the road later in life. I agree.

                  The question is will 20% of BEVs be still on the road after 15 years like ICE cars?

                  A little bit OT, but I'll go there. I don't have a crystal ball, but it would be a brave person who buys a 15 year old+ battery with 200000kms+ on the clock.
                  And this is the best case. What happens at 20 years? 25 years? 30 years?

                  I'm guessing that there's two main buyers for old cars. People who just want a cheap runabout, and enthusiasts who want a classic. Neither of those people will be buying a vehicle with a risk of a $10k+ battery upgrade so I can't see how it will be better.

                  So again, I don't have a crystal ball, but I think ICE cars are far more attractive to the old car market due to the lower risks involved in owning one.

                  • @1st-Amendment:

                    And I don't think anyone was doing that comparison…

                    Correct, but they are lumping all battery vehicles under the same blanket 'batteries won't last' statement. EV and PHEV have clearly different battery usage patterns, do need to be split out.

                    The discussion was that due to the higher cycle count (you said this not me) the batteries won't last as long, so PHEV is likely to have a shorter lifespan due to the costs involved to keep them on the road later in life. I agree.

                    PHEV are shit, they do have a higher cycle count, but the OP usage math is a little over the top. Assuming they get 12 years out of a PHEV, its still half acceptable considering 80% of cars don't make it to 16 years. Plus the car won't die as such, just turns back into a ICE when the battery is sad.

                    but it would be a brave person who buys a 15 year old+ battery with 200000kms+ on the clock.

                    No different than a brave person buying a 15 year old europe car with 200k+ on the clock today, so not sure what your point is?

                    The price will reflect the risks at the time of sale, just like it does today with ICE cars. No one is paying top dollar for a 15 year old merc/bmw.

                    Neither of those people will be buying a vehicle with a risk of a $10k+ battery upgrade so I can't see how it will be better.

                    What battery upgrade? It won't die, you'll just less range. So a 500km range car when new, might still get 350-450km. Perfectly fine for the city run about. The stats for high mileage EVs show the battery isn't degrading much as people think. A 144k Mile aka 231k km Tesla had a 15% reduction, So if it started out as 500km range, it is now seeing 425km. Not really that worrying after 10+ years.

                    but I think ICE cars are far more attractive to the old car market due to the lower risks involved in owning one.

                    LOL They're not… Ask anyone with a 15 year old Merc/BWM what the 'risks' and cost of repairs are worth.

                  • @1st-Amendment:

                    So again, I don't have a crystal ball, but I think ICE cars are far more attractive to the old car market due to the lower risks involved in owning one.

                    But we don’t know that. Anything over 10y old is very early battery tech. It’s come a fair way since then and will get better.

                    Why do people buy old ICE cars now? One reason is because you basically can’t buy old EVs. If I could buy a 10yo EV even with 50% or less range itd be perfect for round town duties and cost me virtually nothing to run. And if that range drops by another 20-30% it’s still get me to and from work plus going to Bunnings on the way home if I want. BUT that’s only if I want small hatchback. Because I want something a bit bigger I can’t even get anything with 150km range that would suit my usage.

                    We just don’t know how the market for old EVs is gong to go because there isn’t really one yet. In 20years we might find out that 10yo EVs still have enough life in them there will be a good market. I prefer to be optimistic in that regard.

                    • @Euphemistic:

                      If I could buy a 10yo EV even with 50% or less range itd be perfect for round town duties

                      Someone made a comment in here a few months ago that they bought a 10 year old Nissan Leaf for about $18k (from memory) which had a range of less than 100km. I can't see many people wanting that. Would you buy one?

                      • @1st-Amendment: Nope, but only because I’m aware that early nissan leaf didn’t have thermal battery management.

                        100km range is a bit short for my regular usage. I’d want 150km, plus I’m not spending $18k on a 10yo hatchback. it would need to be $5k because it really doesn’t suit my usage (I use my ute), but having a $5k runaround car that costs next to zero for fuel might be worthy it.

                        • @Euphemistic:

                          but having a $5k runaround car that costs next to zero for fuel might be worthy it.

                          Sure, but they don't exist, so what is the $5k buyer do?

                          • @1st-Amendment: $5k EVs don’t exist … yet.

                            Cars with ABS and airbags didnt exist for $5k 15 years ago. Now pretty much every car at $5k will have them. Those features didn’t become standard feature until early 2000s.

                            It does still remain to be seen how a 15yo EV will hold up, but it’s not looking as grim as the naysayers say. Ie that every battery will pack it in after 8years.

                            • @Euphemistic:

                              Cars with ABS and airbags didnt exist for $5k 15 years ago.

                              Not sure about 15 years ago, but they did 20 years ago. I had a 1993 Commodore in 2003 with ABS and Airbags and I sold it for less than $5k.

                              • @1st-Amendment: Yeah OK, maybe I’m out a few years (and 20y ago used cars were cheaper too), but surely you get the point. It takes a good amount of time and a lot of supply to get prices that low.

                                The EV market is nowhere near than yet. They aren’t old enough and there aren’t enough of them to be as cheap as a 10yo insert basic but popular model here

        • +2

          "Its only 21% of cars on the road are older than 16 years…."
          not in our house, youngest car is 15 years old
          then again, I keep telling the wife we are poor
          .

          • +1

            @Nugs:

            not in our house, youngest car is 15 years old

            Let them eat cake!

          • +1

            @Nugs:

            not in our house, youngest car is 15 years old
            then again, I keep telling the wife we are poor

            You know that how the stats/breakdowns work right? Some have older cars, some have newer cars.

            Still doesn't change the fact that only 21% on the road are older than 16 years.

            • @JimmyF: yes
              .

              • @Nugs: Look at it this way, you're now driving a classic car! :)

                • @JimmyF: not sure when a 1997 Metro will be called classic
                  .

  • +1

    Yes, this is a pretty major problem with battery tech at the moment. I’ve wondered about this too, and it probably comes down to how often it’s expected (from a manufacturers point of view) a new buyer will replace their car. In the current market that is probably less than 8 or ten years I suspect. There’s also fleets which would similarly be replacing their cars I’d have thought around the 5-7 year mark, but probably more around 5 or so.

    It’s also not just that the battery may eventually konk out, it’s also that the battery will lose capacity, and warranties reflect that potentially (IIRC) a 30% loss or more is acceptable and not warrantable. So, with a range that might be around 50 KM, if you reduce that by 30% to 35 KM you’ve effectively got an electric city car, with an ICE engine anyway.

    • +1

      Yes, this is a pretty major problem with battery tech at the moment

      Its not really, its a PHEV issue from having a tiny battery that has to be cycled hard each time you drive it. Pure EVs don't fully drain the battery on each drive like a PHEV might do. Pure EV can do 400km from full. EV Batteries are very happy to float between 20-80% without battery degradation.

      PHEV are the worst, crappy EV range, carrying extra weight in EV mode (ICE bits), carry weight in ICE mode (EV battery). ICE servicing based on distance, even if the motor isn't used. Hard full drains of the battery on most drives.

      So, with a range that might be around 50 KM, if you reduce that by 30% to 35 KM you’ve effectively got an electric city car, with an ICE engine anyway.

      Correct, buy a EV instead.

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