I had made a similar post 2 years ago.
What do you reckon are some of the risk factors to consider that would add and reduce risk scenarios for Australians in 2024? What would be your strategy in response.
Please backup your information with data.
Here's one of my take, the Net Outflows have spiked which implies that a lot of money has left the country that could affect one of the few other things like interest rates, economic growth/stock market, currency value, inflation and the budget.
We still have several months of 2023 to go.
The variables havent changed in many years.
And its all guess work when it comes to predicting.
Data is only available for history.
Does history repeat itself…yes!
Now just guess which lot of historical data applies.
Pork bellies, wait til they hit about 64 and then buy
.
I prefer the full porkers, not just the belly laughs.
Take this nonsense to wallstreetbets
Well considering you started the last time with "wondering if we could discuss" and then provide 0 discussion or response to any posts, I would say the economic outlook of forum engagement is flat…
Happy to respond within the scope of my understanding however it is quite narrow but I wish to learn more.
Risk factors for what? Your question is too broad. You need to be more specific.
Interest rates have gone up, meaning anyone with debt (people and businesses) are more likely to default (meaning people/businesses that leant them money will now have to wear that loss, which could cause a cascading effect of defaults).
If businesses are unable to generate profits due to higher funding costs they are more likely to go out of business. If businesses go out of business, those jobs also disappear, and unemployment rate goes up.
If people lose their jobs and are unable to pay off their debts, it causes more defaults.
If businesses are trading on credit terms, they could be exposes to these failing businesses, which could impact their own ability to pay their creditors. So even companies that are not carrying debt could be impacted, and dragged down with other companies.
This is all nothing new, and a general risk that businesses face everyday, but is more likely now due to the speed and magnitude of interest rate rises.
There is also a reversal of globalisation, where companies want to onshore their supply chains. So a shake up to the way businesses operate, and who they operate with.
There are so many things that could be considered.
Topic is intentionally broad inorder to bring out more perspectives and then to re-evaluate the record a couple years after 2024.
Lots of "ifs" in your comment
You need to be more specific
The risk is the voice gets delayed and as such we need a new show to fill it's spot… Sorry the voice referendum is any ones guess.
Pls back up your information with "data" as requested
It's in the bank safe.
Stash dunny rolls.
Buy Strayan flags and skull face masks and wear black clothing as you hang in all male groups chanting.
I cite the 1st amendment of Ozb as evidence of peer review of the data submitted .
why bother, not even the experts can get it right. all your doing is taking a gamble, and when or if your right u use that as confirmation bias
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-economists-k…
If you want a list of all major global and national risks, they exist already (and are the same top ten everyday, on all MS & social media Both being integral in the harm thereof)
The greatest permanent and existential risk is us. The number of humans. And the level of of amplified stupidity that is creating a world (mainly western) of unhinged zombies, addicted to BS ,glues to social media and 'influenced' for every step of their lives. Individuality is a unicorn. Even the poor conspiracy-oids hunt in flocks. While claiming individuality, they rattle the shackles of the very chains of mythology that clamp them all together. Funny stuff
Unless you live in a cave you know the major risks already, so I question what you are actually up to with this thread.
Another click bait or microphone drop?
what you are actually up to with this thread.
Returning to see what people say or think vs what actually happened.
The ppl who really know the peripheral risks (you know economics etc) are out on the yacht,playing polo or at the weekender quaffing chardy.
As for the real risks, everyone's denying or ignoring them as usual.
We are so busy asking questions or googling answers or being influenced ,we missed out (slept through) resolving what needed resolving, in the time we had to do it.
Risks are what could happen, not what will actually happen.
It is like walking across a tightrope without a harness. You could fall off, or your could make it across without issue. One will happen, one will not. Just because one does not happen doesn't mean the risk wasn't there.
Risk scenarios for Australians? Global recession, sharp decrease in demand for all that stuff we dig out of the ground and the flow on impacts of that (lower employment, lower tax revenue, cut in government spending that fund half the country).
Reduce this risk scenario by making China/US fix their economies.
Lean hog futures
Hyperinflation
Was predicted by someone in 2021 on the linked thread, did not happen.
It seems to be well underway with the exception of wages.
This reminds me of an episode of The West Wing
Leo McGarry:
Luther, ballpark, one year from today, where's the Dow?
Economist #1:
Tremendous. Up a thousand.
Leo McGarry:
Fred, one year from today?
Economist #2:
Not good. Down a thousand.
Leo McGarry:
A year from today at least one of you's gonna look pretty stupid.
The risk is you will fail your uni assignment if you listen to ozbargainers.
There goes 99% of your responses then.
SauceSource: I read and contribute to the drivel that is, ozbargain forums.