Wondering if we could discuss some of the risk factors affecting the financial markers that would add and reduce risk scenarios for Australians in 2022?
What is your current investment strategy?
What do you think would be a problem for your strategy and what is your backup plan?
-Hyperinflation due to all the money printing that's been going on since 2008 but even more during the scamdemic.
-The global government's push for CBDC's
-Continued financial destruction due to government lockdowns putting small business to (or over) the wall.
There are other things afoot as well but let's not get too far off topic. :)
Anything by this guy is well worth watching if you have the time: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLvRDyn_rVvZ7RRwdcEiJGw
But especially this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYOEvurCVuk
As for protecting your assets going forward (this is not financial advice etc) but a policy of diversity is probably your safest bet. If you can afford real estate without debt that that might be a good idea. Even if the RE bubble pops you'd at least have the physical asset so sell at a later date. If they pull a swifty and do a 'bail in' on our bank deposits like they have been positioning themselves for over the last few years we could lose a fair chunk of your cash/saving/super etc. You could put a bit in precious metals but I have my doubts on those and they are not very fungible when it comes down to it. Of course a balanced crypto portfolio is not a bad idea maybe with the focus on untraceable currencies like Monero or Pirate Chain? Diversified funds on the stock market like the Wilson Assert Management offerings, ETF's etc but timing is the key their too so you need to buy when/if the market corrects which it kinda has to really but don't ask me when.
-Hyperinflation due to all the money printing that's been going on since 2008 but even more during the scamdemic.
Why does everyone think there is hyperinflation?
The latest inflation figure in the US of 5.8% is made up mostly of used car prices. Unless you decide to buy a used car then you don't feel the effect. Plus giving money to another business / person means it is spent in the economy.
You don't think all those billions borrowed for by JobKeeper won't be paid back. There is going to be tax rises (which basically works the same as interest rate rises).
Even if the RE bubble pops you'd at least have the physical asset so sell at a later date. If they pull a swifty and do a 'bail in' on our bank deposits like they have been positioning themselves for over the last few years we could lose a fair chunk of your cash/saving/super etc.
Pumping up real estate prices is a bank bail out. You just think you have the money but actually we've all be suckered into bailing out the banks. RE prices go up 20% most of that additional purchase price is borrowed (or if you are money laundering proceeds it just gives it to the property holder to spend in legit ways to stimulate the economy).
That said people just need to stay diversified and stay invested. If I was to point to one thing VESG (Vanguard Ethically Conscious Global Index).
"Why does everyone think there is hyperinflation?"
Have you bought a steak lately? :)
Have you bought a steak lately? :)
It only impacts people that eat steak?
I'd be worried if your council rates go up 10%, water and utilities up 10% because you can't escape those.
@EightImmortals: You can find that out yourself.
Not sure what you are getting at.
My point is there are items where there is substitutes. It is massive price rises for items with no substitutes you need to worry about.
If tax rates went up 10% the next financial year expect there to be lots of trouble. Tax increase is basically cost of living increase.
@orangetrain: They cut so much they just have contractors
All the assets have been sold.
Last is increase in taxes whether resources super tax or some other tax.
@netjock: Australia Post, Medicare, etc. Plenty of assets to sell. They can even gut medicare to make people want PHI.
@orangetrain: Medibank is the sold off Medicare.
Australia post is lucky to break even. You'd be lucky to get $1 given the defined benefit pension liabilities.
Good luck.
The latest inflation figure in the US of 5.8%
The Feds is covering up/balancing inflation with reverse repo. A quick glance on the graph and anyone can see something is not right :
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
The Feds is covering up/balancing inflation with reverse repo
How does the bond markets cover up inflation?
It isn't like they are buying up all the bread today and reselling it for a lower price tomorrow to manipulate it down.
Sorry but bonds are not part of the CPI basket. Tell me the last time you bought home bonds to feed a family of 4.
@Indomietable: I think you simply don't understand.
Bond market is financial market forward expectation of inflation. Expectations don't match reality 99.9% of the time.
@netjock: Bond? James bond?
No. I specifically said reverse repo. Let me explain.
Imagine institution having so much cash it does not know what to do with it. The interest rate is 0 and can go bellow 0. They are afraid of taking more cash.
This is what happened after all the money printing. For something to have value, it need demand and scarcity factor .
To prevent cash becoming worthless (inflation) the Feds announce that they want cash and they'll pay interest on the cash.
So institutions with stacks of cash now know what to do. The cash is flowing back to the Feds ( hence its called reverse repurchasing) , making these institutions to be back wanting more cash. This is done with a hope that it will decrease supply of cash by creating artificial demand and at the same time trying to set floor on lowest interest rates.
The graph that I linked shows that the Feds hoarding more than 1 trillion of cash daily.
I think you seems to have problem with simple supply and demand theory which explain your best investment is an apartment in CBD
So institutions with stacks of cash now know what to do. The cash is flowing back to the Feds ( hence its called reverse repurchasing) , making these institutions to be back wanting more cash. This is done with a hope that it will decrease supply of cash by creating artificial demand and at the same time trying to set floor on lowest interest rates.
General rule is higher inflation causes central banks to increase interest rates.
You think interest rates sets inflation.
You got serious issues.
The other thread I tried to explain to you and it seems like you don't get it and now you don't get another topic and linking the two.
My loaf of bread is not going to go up by 10% tomorrow because to US 10 year treasury went from 1% to 1.5% yield as it did earlier in the year.
Hyperinflation results from a collapse of confidence in government, not money printing.
Hyperinflation can occur in times of war and economic turmoil in the underlying production economy, in conjunction with a central bank printing an excessive amount of money.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hyperinflation.asp
Think about the root cause.
From the same website, citing Zimbabwe as the most recent case:
âZimbabwe's hyperinflation was a result of political changes that led to the seizure and redistribution of agricultural land, which led to foreign capital flight. â
Printing money by itself doesnât cause it and hence isnât really the root cause. US FED has created trillions but capital still flows into the US because of confidence.
@Blakus: You are right.
I don't see people who borrow 80% LVR on all the money they can get plus falsify their income calling it hyperinflation (creating money using no fundamentals is like money printing). When their property goes up they call it skill not hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation/QE means cash is useless.
Climate change means avoiding climate sensitive investments. At same time, keep an eye out for companies that protect against climate change. Avoid: outdoor farms. Do: Hydroponics.
Other points: Bushfires will cause smoke hazards. Property is still going up.
Clearly a bunker/vault company and bunker/vault functions (air con, hydroponics, etc) is the best investment option but there isn't much choices in Australia. Good luck everyone.
SOL, ADA, BTC
Highly consider inflation hedges - money sitting around is losing value
âA 25-year-old man from Brisbane has successfully sued one of Australia's biggest super funds over its handling of climate change, forcing it to commit to net-zero emissions for its investments by 2050.â - expect similar
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WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2021 - 10:00
Entrepreneurs avoiding negative interest by opening multiple bank accountsSmaller entrepreneurs in the Netherlands are trying to avoid negative interest on savings by opening new accounts with different banks, Financieele Dagblad reported after speaking to Dutch banks. Various banks introduced negative interest rates on larger savings accounts over the past year
At most banks, savings accounts with balances above 100 thousand euros are charged negative interest. This means the account holder pays interest on their savings, instead of earning interest. For someone with 200 thousand euros in the bank, this could mean paying 500 euros in interest at the end of the year. To prevent this, entrepreneurs are now spreading their money over different accounts at different banks.
https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/01/entrepreneurs-avoiding-negativâŚ
If only they knew.
https://files.ozbargain.com.au/upload/393946/91009/screenshoâŚ
Buy digital gold. Everything else đ˘.