It's that time again, last month we had 68.8% predict it would go up, 29.6% that it would hold still, and 1.6% that it would go down.
Let's give it another go, What do you think it's going to be for the RBA's announcement for 01/08/2023
Get your guesses in by 31/07/2023
Does this work with Bet with mates?
Lowe's going to go out on a bang. Raise it a full 1%, mic drop after the announcement and then do a burn out down the road as he leaves….
I think I've got an early copy of his parting speech right here… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q3wFt1zBVE
Admittedly if he did this about 6 months ago he might still be there.
I'm not saying you're wrong (it could be very interesting…), but he's still going to be there for the September meeting too.
I'd like to know how much sway the governor has over the board of the RBA.
If they have a lot of sway, I like to think that the new governer will HODL to gain favour with the Australian people before putting them up in later months
However if they don't have any say at all and are at the board's whim then it'll likely go up again by 0.25
The new governor does not take control until September's meeting and with a $6 million property portfolio some people are worried.
Oct
with unemployment going down, im tipping rise….
(hope they hold)
With so many places closing down, going bankrupt etc I believe the unemployment figures as much as I believe the sun is cold.
going to have to change my opinion with todays inflation data being lower then expected i think rates will Hold
Might be best to reserve judgement until later this week. Two key figures out this week: US Fed meeting and Australian inflation quarterly and monthly data.
yep, call back on wednesday evening to see what the new bets will be
unemployment went down, power went up at least 20% or more, inflation has slowed, but not coming down…… rates will go up.
Who cares…
Only people with a loan, people looking to buy a property, people looking to sell a property, and people that are feeling the impact of inflation, you know….that's all
yer so basically everyone in someway
And people with savings in the bank. Oh and people invested in the stock market.
I’d be surprised if there were anymore rate increases. With so many coming off their low fixed rate these days, that acts as an effective cash rate increase taking money out of the economy, so the RBA will probably hold. But really, who knows!?
I doubt the rates will stop rising until people start defaulting, business go bankrupt and homelessness rises. I'd say to expect at least another 12-18 months of steady rises…….but hoping they stay or go down again, haha.
They'll be looking at quarterly inflation, which is down. So they'll HODL
But still outside their target of 2-3%
It's going up 110%
Inflation hasn't really budged significantly.
Unemployment still at record lows - key indicator of how much money is in the system.
House prices still at ridiculous levels
People still living in lala land with their $1 million loans.
I say don't stop until News.com.au/Newscorp has a meltdown and starts threatening to lynch the RBA Board, only then will they be getting close to where they should be.
It's going up 110%
One way I read this reads confidence, the other way I read this reads stupidity
The irony
News.com.au/Newscorp
That's a 404 for me
Keep raising until everyone living on the street, including them.
With the latest release of AU Inflation data, RBA may hold it.
Latest inflation is 6% which is too high. With 3% inflation Fed raised rates from 5.25% to 5.5%. Value of money getting eroded with higher inflation.
They forecast higher inflation of 6.2% vs actual 6% but that's still too high regardless of forecast inflation. They forecast higher inflation so that they don't have to act because it's less than the expected and this will continue until the inflation naturally wears away without them have to do anything.
Annualised inflation based on the QoQ movement is 3.2%. RBA would be crazy to keep rising, particularly given the number of people coming off fixed rates who are getting 400bps of increases at once.
up please
need more in my savings account
The 3 people saying it will go down…I hope you prove us all wrong
Well Fed hiked rates overnight. But inflation numbers were better.
I want a hike, what we'll get is a hold. Will be happy to be wrong.
The bright side is that hopefully rates stay like this for the next 10 years.
No chance it will go down.
Remote possibility it will go up.
Voted no change.
But I do think there will be one more increase this year.
It does look like RBA will hold. OzB community is consistently predicting it wrong. So i'll be wary of getting financial advice on this forum..Just kidding, I'll always start getting my advice from here.
And it's on hold! congrats to everyone that didn't want it to go up, and especially congrats to the 52 people that got the correct guess!
such a useful comment, thanks!
coward lowe holding again
It doesn’t matter if the RBA holds, banks will just increase rates anyway when they’re feeling the pinch (like they did last week).
I suspect Lowe has mentally checked out since he is going to be replaced by someone who owns six IPs.
I thought cash rate is collective decision of RBA Board members using votes.
That's true, it is. We'll see how things pan out once Bullock is in charge.
HODL