Unemployment rate falls by 0.1% to 3.6% in May. This may mean that RBA will consider increasing cash rate more seriously in July and maybe beyond July too.
What do you think?
Unemployment Rate Falls in May - More Interest Rate Hikes Likely?
virhlpool on 16/06/2023 - 03:13
Last edited 16/06/2023 - 10:07 by 1 other user
Last edited 16/06/2023 - 10:07 by 1 other user
Comments
From an ABC "as it happened" yesterday: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-15/asx-markets-business-…
Could this decrease in unemployment be because more people are working second jobs to pay their mortgage and make ends meet?
- Sarah
No, surprisingly.
There's an important difference between employment and jobs.
"Employment" refers to how many people have a job, while "jobs" refers to how many jobs there are in the economy.
Think of it this way.
Let's say there are two people. The first person has one job. The second person has three jobs.
That means there are two employed people, but four jobs.
That's why you can have a situation in which the number of employed people stays the same while the number of jobs increases (because there's an increase of multiple-job holders).
So, to get back to your question about the "unemployment rate."
The unemployment rate only measures the number of people who are officially unemployed.
It doesn't measure the number of jobs in the economy.
So it says nothing about multiple job-holding.
thankyou for explaining
RBA will find any excuse to lift.
CPI data will be released later this month. If that comes in hot, Phil Lowe is coming for you.
that's why aussie dollar shot up even more and the US are on hold with their rate rises for now.
Why the neg? AUD did shoot up and Fed did pause for June, these are facts.
Yes
Probably. Immigration is gonna boom this year too. Also just look around you, shops are busy, restaurants are busy, money is flowing.
idk. with all the ssd and hdds deals id say a recession is here
The savings buffer they saved up over Covid will only last them so long.
People are still leveraged on cheap debt thats slowly eating away at their accounts.
We were in a recession before covid and we're heading straight back there.Overpriced - expensive homes due to a constrained supply (somewhat artificially thanks to negative gearing)
Artificial population growth.
HOW GOOD IS THISDeath by a thousand cuts.
Agree with all you’ve said. The mortgage cliff is also coming, but since it’s a smaller proportion of people who have mortgages these days the number of people affected are lower, although with tight supply and high demand it’s likely rents will just go up more.
The savings buffer they saved up over Covid will only last them so long.
But apparently it's lasting quite long though. I would have expected a recession and property market crash by now, immigration or not. People still have a lot of spare money to throw at auctions. I wonder how long the steam will last.
The government wants to funnel all of our money to the banks as they are doing it tough. Heaven forbid they set up a new tax so money goes into government or even worse, additional super contributions so the money goes into our future. Nope - give it to the banks, that will fix things.
RBA saw what was happening in NZ - did nothing, they even had the power of hindsight
RBA saw what was happening in America - did nothingNow the RBA is a good 1-2% behind where they need to be at this point in time and they're acting like they didn't see this coming.
America's inflation is currently lower than Australia's yet their interest rates are far higher (because they did something about it)What we learnt is that in order to tame inflation - interest rates have to be at or higher than it, RBA seem to think otherwise even though the evidence is palpable.
I have friends who are still on fixed home loan rates of 2%. This is after getting a pay rise. Still plenty of money floating around to keep inflation high.
A lot of the spending is coming from the older generations too, and that demographic mostly have their mortgages paid off and are flush with cash.
Further creating a class divide where younger generations can't even get into the property market
That's a failure of our banking system or authority that governs banks in a way. The same low-rate 3-year fixed loans are now pain in the a*** for RBA in fighting against inflation. They shouldn't have allowed 3-year fixed int loans at that rate when the visibility was quite poor and situation was volatile.
Who cares. At least there's plenty of work around for people who need it to pay higher interest rates.
Ask those who are paying. Easy to say than go through it. Not protecting the over-borrowers though but a good lesson for anyone borrowing to their neck.
100% chance of increases. Albo to blame.
you're getting negged but unironically true comment.
Importing people is a key element of Albonomics. This has been the case for previous governments as well.
This will do a fine job of keeping the headline GDP growth positive (albeit probably in the 0.1-0.9% range) and keep us out of a technical recession.
Indeed the per capita recession will continue.
Similarly, wages growth will remain depressed as the labour market remains tight due to this importation of labour
Of course, expect also for house prices to continue to rise in the face of rising interest rates, sluggish wages NOT keeping pace with inflation.Looking forward to him tendering his resignation hwhen referendum fails. JIMBO 2025 !
Help us all if Jimbo takes over
Is it just me or does our dopey Federal Treasurer look like Gomer Pyle? 🤔
Only two or three correct steps could have put the labour govt in a better spot today but they didn't get them right. They did these wrong: 1) Opening immigration fully at the time of acute housing crisis in the country. 2) Increasing wages of such a huge population at the time of serious inflation. 3) Not curbing housing bubble in any form or shape. I am sure there are many more but these are the ones that any common citizen can relate to easily.
Scomo condemned us when he dumped $750 billion on the economy ;)
I read somewhere yesterday that the number of job vacancies is at 2.8% (i.e. 2.8% of all jobs are currently vacant). We're basically at full employment, it's just a skills mismatch from jobseekers and open roles. We've bought in 400k immigrants the past 12 months and 400k jobs have been filled, all to keep the economy ticking along.
How can unemployment figures drop with example - every building company going broke, many business toes up
or are the figures "seasonally adjusted"…..
Yes. Reckon another 50 basis points before Sept. 100 by end of 23 wouldn't be a stretch.
I'm expecting at least three more rises, to 4.85%, before we're done. Hopefully rates won't need to go any higher than that.
RBA tells people to get a second job..
people do
and now they're saying rba will have to raise rates again as a result
FML