$10000 to Invest in Almost Retired LEGO with 5 Year Timeframe, Which Set to Invest?

I often invest $10000 every few years on shares with a 5 year timeframe. This time I am going to invest in Lego toys about to be retired with a not selling period of no less than 5 years.

Which set would you invest in?

Some of best buy so far:

The Ghost bought at Target at $80, now worthy $1200

Superstar destroyer at $400, now north of $1000+

The Ferrari Wheel at $400, now around $750

STAR WARS helmet Stormtrooper at $69 now worth around $250, same goes with Helmet Pilot

Comments

        • Usually lego blogs will run stories from time to time. The Lego.com store will put up a flag "retiring soon" when you're in the last year of sales give or take.

        • there is a website that track those. Prediction of course

  • +5

    Organized crime using Lego to lander money, rather than an crypto or NFTs lol
    https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/crime/police-seize…

    Anything expensive and limited run sets

    • +1

      Nice they have switched to (Lego) Bricks.
      I guess the sale of electronic scales will fall.

    • +1

      Insane! I don't think that's a smart way to do money laundering

    • Lot of people on marketplace selling sets just released for slightly under street price. Go in, pay with dirty money/stolen credit card/stick the set in your pram, sell on marketplace.

  • +2

    As someone who has lego long term…

    • storage is a pain. For maximum profit, you cannot stack boxes. They must be stored on edge.
    • what goes up is a gamble and hugely influenced by lego, fashion and cycles
    • you cant go wrong with traditional sets - medieval, pirates, space etc. However, the purchasing rates in recent years has been so high these have often been extended by lego.
    • theme sets are a gamble. Harry Potter, for example, was really only worth it 20 years ago. However LotR was a bust. Go figure.
    • Blacksmith is good, so are castle series, stay away from the Disney or friends.

      Lego speed is a dark horse

      • Agree. Speed I think will depend on the vehicle and sale rates.

        Should also add - stupidly collectable series such as the Christmas towns and the modular buildings = always popular. It's a very adult demographic generally that buy these.

      • That Disney Minifigures series will keep going up surely…?

      • Agree on Speed champions. This is my niche, vehicles.

        Usually the iconic cars (i.e. recently Porsche 930 75895. $18-22 set new, Sells for 55-65 all day long. Transaction wise you'll need to sell a few to make it rich but its a 300% profit I can see them trading hands for $100 each in the future.

  • Looks like not many people is doing what I am doing.

    Might start a new topic on what shares to buy next week. LOL

    Can moderator please close this topic?

    • Why wait until next week? The night is still young.

    • I’m sure there are, but they just aren’t on OzBargain. As others have pointed out, there’s a lot of other logistical costs involved which you may not have contemplated which make the process significantly harder than just buy low sell high.

      IMO unless you’re passionate about the lego sets themselves (and truly understand the subject matter/market well) and are happy to keep for yourself, then I’d probably look at other investment classes. Personally if you are really trying to avoid the traditional or typical investments classes, maybe look into other options eg luxury goods, physical commodities, etc.

    • Cause the ones flipping sets like cafe corner that have made real coin from it have moved on as the lego bubble has burst.. hardly any sets these days jump up in value

    • You're not gonna get much love anywhere other than a Lego reseller dedicated page. To everyone this just looks like hoarding and flipping which hurts fans and kids.

      Using Lego as an investment is actually common and lots of people do it as a side hustle. It's just not spoken about because of the taboo around it.

      • Taboo? People collect, flip all sorts of random sh!t.

      • I am actually don't go to these Lego investment forum much, reason been all they talk about are potentially gains. However most of the time they are often wrong about the projection. I think I have a much higher return rate by select the sets myself. However the last few years has been pretty ordinary.

  • How much do you pay for rent? If you filled a room with 10k worth of Lego, what would the effective rent be for that room of five years. Or if you paid for storage what would five years of storage cost. And making sure your insurance covers not just the Lego but the appreciated value of the Lego. A single flood or fire could wipe you out.

    • +1

      OP has already posted that he uses spare storage space in his own business. So zero rent, cover the Lego with business insurance. Or taking out a $10k contents policy

      • Never mind that he is probably declaring to the ATO the business rent/costs to cover his personal investment (while not considering the Lego the legal property of his business entity), or how he would explain it to his his insurer or the police if his business burned down or was robbed, unless he owns the land and building then he is still paying rent. And if he sells in five or ten years then that's still five or ten years of rent and outgoings. And if he does own the land and building, if it doesn't make economic/investment sense to buy land and building to store Lego, why would it make sense to use existing business space for Lego? Surely there is a way to utilise that space that will actually make him money over the next 10 years. Expand his business, or rent out the space himself to another business maybe. Buying something and not selling something is algebraically the same thing, usually.

  • +1

    Good on you i did purchase a heap of lego a few years ago from a collector at a good price sold 80% within a couple of weeks and more then doubled my money made quick $3000 odd

  • What you're doing is more like running a business in which you have to work. Add up all your time spent researching what to buy, going to the store to buy it, moving it to storage, listing it for sale and shipping it. Work out how much it would cost to pay someone to do all that then deduct it from your profit.

    • well the researching is freely outsourced to OzBargain.

    • Well I don't do this full time, I run this as a side hustle, good profit each year after tax. And gives me something to do as my hobby isn't many. Apart from play some games that's about it really.

  • Lego Corningware set?

    Seriously though, LEGO is mass produced like Australian mint coins, values only what prospective buyers willing to pay for it so in the dystopic future where humanity fights each other for survival LEGO will be rather useless.

    • +2

      Once it's retired, yes the value goes up heaps.

      Remember the Lego Shanghai sets I posted few years back? Now this thing is worth $250 now! I haven't sold any of my sets yet, waiting for it to go to around $400 before I will start to sell them as the 5 year rule I self imposed haven't reached yet.

      You find me an investment with less risk which can double your money every few years?

  • Hey OP wanted to get into investing legos, which few sets do you recommend right now? Thanks

    • +1

      Haha, yah definitely all the comments are off tracks. I'm guessing anything Star Wars - how about this Target's Justifier 75323 set at clearance $149?

    • Lego speed, Tokyo, Paris, star wars are all good sets to collect.

      Just start on the star wars.

  • +2
    • OP claims to have never lost money on this scheme
    • OP claims to do their research to ensure that happens
    • OP starts a threads on OzBargain asking what sets to buy, even though they have a track record of success

    This is just a humblebrag thread.

    • -1

      OP claims to have never lost money on this scheme

      I mean, I've never lost money selling a lego set either. I've also never lost money selling shares.
      The key to the strategy is just not selling!

  • Do you buy the Lego sets and leave them unopened or you open them and play with them and sell later?

    • Really?

      • +1

        that's why I asked and both gets done too

    • if you open them, then sell them as used, if it's unopened - you can sell them as new - the new one is sold higher price. Am I missing something?

      • +1

        i think they do both

    • Unopened for sure. Value goes down hill if you play with them

      • +1

        ya of course but some reason they still worth more if they become used but a collectible

  • +1

    The Ideas range is usually quite limited in runs.

    • -1

      Yes however I am currently holding too much of the dinosaur skeleton sets. That was a bad one despite the fact it's now retired but the value isn't going too high at all.

  • +1

    No hate dude, at least you're not extorting people for a basic human right (like landlords with housing atm). All the more power to you!

    • +1

      You mean people who are putting the rent up? I have an investment property and I always charge market value with a 3-5% discount if they are a good long term tenants

  • +1

    LEGO investing is very tiring:

    • Too many people do it
    • It takes up a lot of space to store
    • Humidity, heat, floods, everything poses a risk to your items
    • Selling it in these economic downturn periods is harder, people have less discretionary income to drop on a toy, sure the cashed up ones will still buy them
    • There's no pre-defined method, even if a set was only out for 2 years and you bought up the stock before retirement, some sets just linger at the RRP point for a few years
    • Trying to wait for trigger points is hard, what I mean by that is that you might be holding onto a Star Wars set, and it sits at above RRP after retirement, and just stays there for a few years, then suddenly they spin off a side story where the main vehicle was that set, bam it goes up, not easy to predict that.
    • +1

      These days it's very hard to pick winners, first the sets are released too quick, secondly a lot of the stuffs are very similar to the ones before. The range is getting crazy and so are the prices. I have to say my successful rate of picking good ones are much lower since the start of COVID. Hence I started this topic.

  • +3

    Look, I collect LEGO and also have valuations similar to OP. This thread is more of a flex than a real question. You wouldn't ask a general crowd that have never invested in LEGO, which set to buy, especially if you have already done this successfully for the past decade or so.

    • Agreed, looks like a humblebrag / advertisement if anyone wants to buy.

    • +1

      Honestly with the amount of Lego been posted here, I thought there is a lot people doing what I am doing. But looks like it's only a handful.

      Wanna share which sets you think will be good investment?

  • Lol
    Only on Ozbargain 😂

  • Funny how people have reacted to your investment strategy. Like, its higher risk than the stock market because it can be hard to predict the size and timing of cultural trends - long term an ETF will have consistency but a toy trend might snuff out as the generation driving it loses interest and next generations have their own different toys. But its undeniably a valid investment strategy to put some money into collectables. And like you say, its paid off in the past (hope you factor in opportunity cost of having put all that money including loss makers into an ETF or something). Plus it's fun. I'd delete any comments about how you store them, even vague ones, perhaps other than to say you don;t keep it at your house.

  • You paying CGT on these?

    • +1

      It's under small business for his tax return not CGT and yes he pays his tax.

    • +1

      I pay tax on profit after all the fees are taken out, there is quite a lot, Amazon charges heaps when it comes to fees. Postage and gst are the bigger ones. Especially GST after the sets going up a few times.

      • That is a shame, tax sucks.

        Can you claim a loss, then, if they don't bring in a profit?

        • Yes you can, however I have not made a lost yet with any retired sets yet. Worst I did is the LEGO idea dinosaur skeleton sets which I got them at $79, after paying fees and shipping I only makes $10 on them holding 3 years and I still have lots to clear……..

  • those were really ROI sets, but during that time there were alot of set released.

    There's a slim chance that the the ghost could get a UCS release.
    Idea sets have had re-release - saturn v / shit in a bottle
    released ucs sets/ batman yumber sets.

    Picking winning sets it not easy and really differcult as sales don't come as often as they use to, too many people are doing the same thing.

    even now saying you go for lego modular series the lego assembly square is which expected to retire the RRP has gone up from $399 to $449.
    the boxes for these sets are huge and very easly to be damaged if not stored properly.

    Also have you consider how your going to offload these in the future? small sets are easier to post, modulars are very $$ to send and your buyers are going to be very nickicky if it turns up with a tin dent.

    • My wife got me assembly square last year for $250. You really need to wait for a good buying opportunity.

      • They couldn't even give it away at the time with that price, I didn't even buy at $250 as it's too big too shop. However I did have still around 3 sets of the death stars, funny enough, at the time these are not selling either

    • -2

      Actually I have not bought and sold any modular sets. I buy smaller sets which are under 1kgs, easy to sell and pack.

      • Early modulars is where all the cash was I find it hard to believe you are making so much on small sets

        • I might look into it a bit more, as I find them too big to ship. Thanks

  • You going to add that to your contents insurance and pay the extra premium? Or risk it getting destroyed in a fire, stolen after a humble-brag at work, etc?

    • -1

      Insurance are all tax deductable, we have a family business storing stocks in a storage unit and Lego is there to fill the gaps.

  • +2

    Modular’s or the Larger Ninjago sets. All have consistently gone up in value. They are adult collectors items as they are part of a series that can be displayed. AFOLs love them. I’ve had some success getting the sets either half built or with broken box or on clearance.

    I got the modular bank once in a pile of half built bags, displayed it for a few years and then that sold for $400 and now it’s over $800 new in box. I got the Ninjago docks under $200 new a few years ago, and I’ve seen that going for $700.

    The larger technical sets cal also sell well, like the Mac truck. But others show no interest like the rally car which basically costs close to rrp 5years later.

    • Oh interested, is there a huge market for the Ninjago sets? I never invest in them. Might look into it

      • Yeah my kid always wants retired Ninjago sets for Christmas.

        I've paid about RRP a few times, and I'm a long way from being a cashed-up Lego collector AFOL.

  • +2

    I got the Lego Ideas 21303 Wall E for $60, which goes for $600, and someone on eBay is selling it for: $1,199.99.

    That's how it's done! Not selling yet.

    • How did you get them for $60? I remember I paid like $150 for these.

      • +1

        I still got the email from 2016. From the LEGO Shop online. I also got the LEGO Pirates Chess Set for $60 too (that goes for $200-$300 now, but I opened it, amazing set). I was collecting LEGO Dimensions at the time and added a few more items on clearance!

        Gee, if I knew the price would do this, I would have got more, had no idea until you posted this thread!

        • +2

          Insane! Do a get a commission for this? LOL

          Good on ya by the way!

  • I bought my son the original Sandcrawler 10144 boxed used for like $200 when he was 5yo about a decade ago.

    We have a running joke that it is his retirement plan. He built it twice I think, but its just sitting boxed under his bed now.

    Not sure how much its worth now, meh I probably wouldn't lose money on it. Theres been some crappier re-releases of it since I bought it. It use to be the only way you could get a Jawa minifig.

    But this bulk speculating on Lego seems like a brodenish thing to do.

    • About $800 - $$1000. The one they released after that is really nice also.

      Bordenish isn't wrong, but interesting enough I don't buy too much at the time, normal 5 to 10 sets max at any given time. Then next time it's on sale I buy another 5 - 10 sets. So it's very balanced over time. There is a transformers toy collector on one of the forum buys like 50 sets and flip them right after. Which is insane really

    • If you want higher risk/higher return buy bulk second hand Lego, perhaps in affluent areas.

      I got an original Galaxy Explorer, Hillside House, Apple Tree House, castle set and others for $25. I'm not an investor and build many sets with the kids and let them play with it after.

      • Second hand Lego is an issue, people just don't tell you what's missing in them. Once I bought a Lego Batman The Original Tumblr sets, however when I started to build it, it's missing 1 bag. Despite the fact it's not been opened.

  • I'm sure there's plenty of them but I'm interested to find out what type of people pay above retail/face value for collectables such as Lego, Pokemon, shoes, concert tickets, watches, cars…

    They probably have more money than me (or sense) or are speculators.

    I went to purchase some concert this week. No tickets left on the official sites but plenty on reseller websites at double face value. F U resellers, if it wasn't for the resellers, I'd probably be able to purchase the (already overpriced) tickets at face value.

    • People getting into them because they like them, and there is no short of collectors out there.

      I might get shot down for this, but I am different to concert tickets flippers, as my 5 - 10 sets can be bought at any shop at any given time. So I am not taking all the stocks from the market.

      If you looking to buy say Lego speed 007 one, you can purchase them from Amazon, eBay, Kmart, myer, target, toyrus etc etc

      If money allows you can buy 100 sets and still plenty available

      • +1

        So more money than sense lol.

        Anyway good luck as long as you're not taking all the available stock from a kid that wants to buy one from a store to play with right now.

        • Certainly wouldn't have those kinds of buying power…..lol

  • +1

    I bought my son a lot of star wars lego, but he's not really interested in star wars or lego anymore. I have that Ghost set (used, but with box). Is there really a market that I can easily sell these? Is ebay the best option? The boxes take up a lot of room and as we've downsized, im paying to store everything in a storage shed.

    I have a few unopened sets that were meant to be xmas presents but he changed interest… i think they include the hoth rebel base kit bought from 5his deal at OzB https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/370727 , poes black one xwing, and another hoth set… not sure of model numbers but maybe they are worth something now? I have used sets of the Republic gunship, millennium falcon, and a lot of other stuff that is sitting in storage

    • +1

      You looking at a value of $5000+ there alone. Spend the weekend and sort it out bud!

      • Thanks, that's good to know that he can sell his toys in a few years time, and maybe trade it in for his first car. Who would have known Lego could go up so quickly.

        I still have my space lego sets from the 80s (well used, no boxes) but I'll take those to the grave… I saved every cent as a kid for them.

  • Out of interest, do you get many returns after selling? In particular customers who claim the box has been damaged in transit or say they never received it etc.?

    • +1

      Nope, never had 1 returns on LEGO. Even the ones that with shocking boxes as I take like 20 pictures lol

  • +1

    Woah I didn't know The Ghost was worth that much. I have two in storage that I didn't end up giving as gifts.

    • +1

      Errrrr……. softly asking……… commission….sir….me….lol

  • Lego Selling experts, Just a quick question…..

    Where is the best place to sell lego?

    • Amazon for sure! Then Lego forums! eBay next! Gumtree last! I wouldn't even bother with gumtree to be honest

      • Which Lego forums do you use to sell?

  • OP, did you try to buy and sell the new Nissan Skyline 76917 from Speed Champions? Seems like speculators/ scalpers drove the price up on this set when it was released early this year but its been coming down as the secondhand market supply is more than the demand and i think people are still content to wait for a restock.

    Also, how do you manage the risk of LEGO re-releasing a popular set like the Tumbler and UCS Millennium Falcon? Does the newer and usually improved set push the prices of your set down and you end up having wasted time and storage space? If not popular, price doesn't go up and if too popular, it will be re-released. You kind of need ot find the sweet spot of when to sell and how to price it.

  • will the new helmets be worth buying?

  • bought 5 blue lambo before covid but sold 4 too quick for small profit before lego put the price up on everything, now just one left probably keep a bit longer

    • What set is blue lambo?

      • sorry blue Bugatti Chiron…. Lambo is green

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