Is 2023 a Good Time to Get an Electric Car, or Wait till 2025/6 and beyond?

xdigger on 08/11/2022 - 14:51
Last edited 08/11/2022 - 14:52

As petrol hit record levels with the removal of the federal fuel subsidy, I'm considering upgrading our family SUV to an EV for petrol-costs savings reason since we already got a 6.6kwh solar system at home (no battery though - should I get one?). The 2022 BYD Atto 3 (less expensive option) and Tesla Y RWD (more expensive option) both looks nice and suits my family needs. Any idea if EV SUVs like BYD Atto or Tesla Y will get cheaper in 2025 and beyond, or should I just buy them in 2023 (both currently with 5 months wait times) to take advantage of earlier fuel and servicing savings?

My employer currently don't have access to novated leasing schemes for EV cars so I can't take advantage of the federal FBT bill for EVs. Also what are everyone's thoughts on the merits of getting a second-hand ex-fleet EV? Should I buy a new EV and drive it to the ground at the 10 years mark? Has anyone done the maths to see if getting an EV car for $50-80k is worth it? Or should I get an equivalent specs ICE SUV for $40k in 2023 and upgrade to EV in 2026/7 when EV tech is more matured? Can anyone see mid-sized SUV EV prices dropping in the coming years?

Are there any groundbreaking EV/battery tech that I will miss out by buying an EV in 2023 vs 2025/6/7 or beyond? (800-1000km single charge range, perhaps?)

I know that's a lot of questions but I appreciate any advice. I understand the costs of getting an EV car also includes ancillary costs like installing EV charger/s in our house, but if anyone can shed some light regarding the basic installing costs with electrician fees that would be much appreciated. In true Ozbargain spirit, my main consideration overall would be getting good value for my money whether I go with EV or a ICE car. Thanks.

Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

  • DingoBlue on 10/11/2022 - 18:39

    Plug in hybrids are the best bet right now.

    Small battery will get you to work and back on 100% electric, fuel will take you on holiday on the weekend.

    • OzFrugie on 10/11/2022 - 20:18

      Yes i think so too. But price is quite high. Which PHEV do you think is good?

    • inasero on 10/11/2022 - 21:00

      Hybrids don't really make much sense, because you have the worst of both worlds - carrying around a heavy ICE And battery pack, and you still have to perform regular ICE servicing which is kinda the point of going electric in the first place

      • nephilim on 11/11/2022 - 17:48

        Both Toyota and Mitsubishi only check the EV systems on major services, you can use a $150 oil change place for the 10k log book services.

  • ozwolf on 10/11/2022 - 19:46
    +1

    I think electric vehicles might get cheaper in time with them getting more common, but of course one cannot say for sure

  • Serapis on 10/11/2022 - 20:38

    I'm waiting for the RN22e

  • ipiok on 11/11/2022 - 00:02

    Is $2 a litre really that much…. No.

  • Logical on 11/11/2022 - 00:36

    The Tesla Y RWD is not suitable for everybody, it is a slow car (in the EV range of speed), has considerable body roll and is more akin of a tank as it weighs a lot. It therefore suffers from a relatively short range, especially with higher payload and AC running and planting the foot down somewhat. People claim to get anywhere from 280km to 320km on a full charge.. the lower range is attributable to highway speeds of 110km/hr with a full family inside. Flip side, great for school pick up and drop offs, driving kids to weekend sports etc. You can sit in the car and watch you tube, Netflix, Disney etc listen to spotify etc and run the AC and be comfortable without feeling guilty of having the engine running.

    • keejoonc on 11/11/2022 - 10:55
      +1

      Have you actually driven it? Clearly not. Because if you've driven it, you won't say it has "considerable body roll". Because of very low centre of gravity, it does not have much body roll at all. 280km to 320km range is a non-sense too. Most people will get close to 400km unless they do highway driving only. My car has done close to 3000kms now and it's LTD efficiency is at 128wh/km, which is damn good.

      • Logical on 11/11/2022 - 17:26

        Yes, driven the Y. I have the 3LR w/ boost. Do you frequent the forums where real people complain about the real world range they are getting with the Y?

        • keejoonc on 11/11/2022 - 17:30
          +1

          Complain about what? The range on Model Y is as you would expect. 128wh/km I'm getting is bloody good so I don't know what's there to complain. People who complain are the idiots who bought an EV without doing enough research and whether it would work for their use case. Yes, I do frequent the forums and facebook groups and 90% of the people there are idiots asking the same questions over and over again so it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't know what they were buying into.

          Besides, Model Y RWD isn't as heavy as you make it out to be. It weighs less than your Model 3 LR.

    • Euphemistic on 11/11/2022 - 11:44
      +4

      it is a slow car (in the EV range of speed)

      None of the current crop of EVs in this country are even remotely ‘slow’. Most of them are capable of winning the traffic light Grand Prix with ease. No one NEEDS are car capable of getting to 100km/h in under 10 seconds let alone half of that. Stop promoting this arms race for stupidly fast cars that do nothing more than create a dangerous situation on our roads. Stupidly fast and incompetent drivers are a bad mix.

      Having highway speeds drop range is a testament to how efficient these vehicles are at urban speeds. It also highlights just how inefficient an ICE vehicle is in an urban setting that we think that they are more efficient at highways speeds when aerodynamic drag kicks in.

  • Trying2SaveABuck on 11/11/2022 - 13:28
    +1

    Wont touch an EV until the governments incentivize people properly to get one - ie cheaper rego, free parking, free recharge etc

    i think the technology also has a bit to go - they need to get charging down to 10-15mins from empty to full

    Right now they are 'generally' overpriced and poor(ish) quality - There is more and more competition hitting Australia every year so i reckon within the next 10 years they will be everywhere

    • Brick Tamland on 11/11/2022 - 16:15
      +4

      Yeah its still very much early days and buying an EV today or next year you're more of an early adopter than anything. Virtually all EV's are the first model iterations and I'd definitely be waiting on a series 2 or 3 in 5 to 10 years time.

      • [Deactivated] on 12/11/2022 - 11:12

        If no one bought these pieces of crap manufacturers would fly into a panic and demand the "net zero" fetish and push for ending ICE cars ends. People who buy these things are like turkeys sharpening the farmer's ax for him in November.

        • Brick Tamland on 12/11/2022 - 12:11

          Barely anyone in Australia is buying them. Manufacturers are focusing on SUV's and trucks. Look at the American trucks conversion businesses are expanding and going to 24 hours operations. Toyota are bending over backwards to get the Tundra into Australia. I dont think manufacturers give two hoots about EV and would prefer building what's in demand. Look at Ford, one of the biggest car companies in the world, in Australia it only sells a truck and a mustang, hahaha.

    • Euphemistic on 13/11/2022 - 09:49

      Wont touch an EV until the governments incentivize people properly to get one - ie cheaper rego, free parking, free recharge etc

      That’s cutting your nose of to spite your face. What they need to do is incentivise manufacturers to bring them into the country. Current situation is that EVs are selling very quickly. Supply is not available, demand is there.

      • Trying2SaveABuck on 13/11/2022 - 12:18

        Sure regardless it is better for the consumer

        The base level entry EV is around ~50k (Atto)

        Compare that to ICE were you can get a car for as around ~16k and it usually has better warrenties etc then the current EV line up.

        Entry level EV need to be ~25k before it becomes more main stream - ill add this im all in support of saving the environment and more EVs but it needs to be affordable otherwise the change wont ever really happen.

        The end of a day a cars function is to get one from A-B for most motorists this is all thay matters

        • Euphemistic on 13/11/2022 - 13:24

          It’s true that they are too expensive for many people for now. I’d love to be able to get a 150-200km range EV for the price of a second hand Camry. Be great for commuting, but we are in early adopter phase and people with more money get to early adopt.

          • Trying2SaveABuck on 13/11/2022 - 13:47

            @Euphemistic: i agree with this a short range basic EV for local communiting would be perfect for the majority of motorist

            i know i would be up for that

            • Euphemistic on 13/11/2022 - 16:11

              @Trying2SaveABuck: Unfortunately the marketing department from the oil companies has convinced the majority of us that well all be screwed unless we get 3-400km of range when the reality is that many cars never ever go that far in a day.

              Then add many people dont recognise that they could start every single day with full range. (Yes, that’s only for anyone with off street parking). And they think they need to go to a charge station and wait for hours every week.

              Put those factors together and the EV makers won’t offer short range EVs because ‘the won’t sell’

  • itsme56 on 11/11/2022 - 16:46
    +4

    When everyone has an electric car, electricity will be more expensive since we will have to pay for the upgrade of the grid somehow.

    • nephilim on 11/11/2022 - 17:44

      Pretty much opposite at moment, grids can barely handle the solar from houses to the point where states are still discussing blocking feedins.

      • [Deactivated] on 12/11/2022 - 11:09

        Too much input is the excuse, not the reason why they want feed-in tariffs to end, lol. They're not fooling anyone who has done even the most basic glance look into off-grid systems. i.e. If they produce too much power they simply dump the excess through a load like a fan heater, a water heater, etc. (Not ones inside the home, ones set up exclusively to burn off excess power.)

        So all they need do is add one requirement to new installs: a certain percentage of power must be dumped through a load at the source (people's homes).

  • bazingaa on 12/11/2022 - 00:48

    I thought that OzB is the land of Camrys

    • Euphemistic on 13/11/2022 - 09:52

      Toyota needs to step up with a Camry EV.

      • Hackney on 13/11/2022 - 10:15

        Not going to happen.The company is Hybrid driven.

  • Hackney on 12/11/2022 - 06:01

    I just think ‘decent’ EV’s are just to expensive, sure there is a lot of R&D goes into them & manufactures want a return on their investment, but prices are just to high atm.I would consider if I could get a VWiD4 or ID3 for around 50kish(dream on.)

  • [Deactivated] on 12/11/2022 - 10:57

    If petrol price is someone's reason for buying an electric car, give it a few years and they'll be wishing they'd never changed. Not only will electricity cost more than a tank of fuel, they now won't be able to switch back, because a) No will want to buy electric vehicles, and b) people like them have reduced the demand for fuel so it's price hasn't been able to fall back to reasonable levels. Then government bans ICE cars. So we'll all be using uber, only no one will be able to afford to drive for uber.

    Oh and unless you keep an electric car for years, every few years you'll "need" (want) a new one and/or after 8-10 years need new batteries. Either of which will wipe out any "saving."

    Government arrogantly saying they will ban ICE cars is nonsense. The fact remains, the last 2 years has proven many people are SHEOPLE. if they instead refused to buy these awful cars, then manufacturers would be SCREAMING at government DEMANDING they reverse the decision, or else face legal action.

    And then fuel prices would fall as people returned to cars that won't leave them to die of thirst in the outback. (Good luck getting a "charge", an electrician, or a spare proprietary battery pack on some of Australia's outback roads.)

    • oblivianz on 12/11/2022 - 11:40

      Interesting view, what are your opinions on hybrids and plug-in hybrids?

      • Hackney on 13/11/2022 - 06:14

        Hybrids are the ‘sweet spot’ atm.

      • [Deactivated] on 13/11/2022 - 20:01

        Well, if someone believes petroleum is… going the way of the dinosaur (lol), why buy a hybrid. Unless they're one of those people I mentioned who are already planning to buy another new car a few years from buying today's new car. It's like carrying around a petrol generator in the boot. Twice as many things to go wrong, an engine that has to pass every new reduced emission standard which governments will keep cutting.

        I just don't understand how people can't see where this is heading. Not only is it going to cost more, either by buying a new car every few years, or replacing batteries (which you can bet they'll introduce all sorts of rules over too, like they have to be molded the exact same shape, have crash testing, must have proprietary charging boards, etc)… but it's going to decimate long distance traveling, plus drive the price everything from food to TVs through the stratosphere.

        Just look at the price of fuel in recent days. I went out two nights ago and the cheapest was something like $2.11/L. Now imagine the price of fuel when half the country or more (business, government, and people with more dollars than sense) have switched to electric. The demand for fuel has halved. What do people think that will do to the price of fuel, and all goods currently delivered by diesel trucks. We've only gone from $1.60/L to $2.11, but EVERY item in the supermarket has jumped in price. i.e. They haven't just increased the prices to recover the cost of fuel. They're gouging.

        So if people don't refuse to buy EVs the short-term (their long-term imagined) "saving" is going to drag most of the world into poverty by a thousand other price jacks.

        • Euphemistic on 14/11/2022 - 06:24

          Not only is it going to cost more, either by buying a new car every few years, or replacing batteries

          Batteries last a lot longer than you seem to predict.

          Just look at the price of fuel in recent days.

          And we shouldn’t move away from oil? Oil companies have proven time and time again to gouge the prices. Why shouldn’t we use renewable where the input prices can’t be dictated by some cartel?

          So if people don't refuse to buy EVs the short-term

          Plenty of people are refusing to buy EVs. Some for valid reasons (outback distances, towing, Facebook told me they are bad etc) but others are recognising their city travel costs can be cut significantly because EVs are so much more energy efficient in the city environment and the sun can provide some of the lower, not price gouging oil companies.

          • [Deactivated] on 14/11/2022 - 14:57
            -1

            @Euphemistic: Batteries are supposed to last a lot longer. In practice many are finding they do not. The original owner rarely keeps their EV long enough to discover this fact, yet still cites otherwise.

            Price gouging on fuel is easy to solve. Most countries have mapped ample fuel reserves from decades ago. But when the price gougers hear we're about to tap into them, they would drop their prices making it financially nonviable. (Who would buy "our" fuel while it's more expensive than the middle east.) Once the proposal is scrapped they put the price up again, wait a bit, then gouged again.

            The difference today though is, "they" have finally managed to brainwash most people the greenhouse effect/ozone hole… ooops I mean, global warming, ooops I mean climate change… is real. "They"… the people driving this nonsense upon governments who are also on the boards of companies who stand to benefit, openly admit in their books and little Ted talks, they want us all poor, owning nothing, renting everything from them, eating bugs not beef, but still smiling.

            As for the city dwellers seeing it's cheaper. Maybe, while it all works. But watch what happens when another freak hurricane takes out the grid for two weeks. When it happened up Central Coast way in NSW, some petrol stations had their own generators. So people with ICE cars could still get to work. No so much the EVs. With ALL car EVs, they would need to build huge solar arrays on roofs over vast empty car parks so everyone could charge to get to work. Either that or pour billions into power stations (where?). That just ain't gonna happen. What will happen though, is they will keep making excuses to charge more for fuel, more for food, more pseudoscience, so most people will accept a progressively lower, more restricted, living standard until none of us have any choice. We won't be able to afford fuel. And once they have everyone in EVs, electricity is going to shoot up so much, they'll "come up with" renting our EVs from corporations to "save" money.

            They've been openly preaching and brainwashing us with this crap for years. But when people point it out they're laughed at… when the same smug arseholes pushing it, and admitting their goals openly, are making it happen.

            Oh and "renewables" … just aren't. First they require oil to make, install, maintain, and replace. Then they require ongoing subsidies to make them financially viable (which hasn't worked, which is why the price of everything is now increasing - to force us into thinking, "This is cheaper, I'll do that.") Because not enough people are swallowing their nonsense, so they dream up then push governments to get on board to force us to change. Then they have to tax us more if they keep providing subsidies, and if not, the cost of "renewable" energy will cost more than fuel ever did.

            • Euphemistic on 14/11/2022 - 15:09

              @[Deactivated]:

              They've been openly preaching and brainwashing us with this crap for years

              Mmmmm. Kool-aid.

              • [Deactivated] on 14/11/2022 - 19:10
                -1

                @Euphemistic: Here's a case in point. /\ Intellectually dishonest blind followers who do zero reading, zero reviewing of seminars and interviews, zero checking which company or organisation they're a part of, where they're sending their money, how they've been saying things for years in their own books mapping out their intentions which have come to pass and more to come… yet you think you are the "expert" and all those who did the research on your behalf, who try to throw you a life preserver for the coming tsunami are the crazy ones. Unbelievable. It's the climate cult members who have been drinking their religious coolaid.

                • Euphemistic on 14/11/2022 - 19:17

                  @[Deactivated]: Yep. You know what? I trust the scientists, the majority of whom are in agreement over climate change. United Nations in agreement. Many others investing in renewables.

                  You know who isn’t in agreement? Oil companies whose profits are at risk and a bunch of Facebook ‘scientists’.

                  You want show otherwise let’s see some evidence based research that isn’t a YouTube clip or Facebook post.

                  • [Deactivated] on 14/11/2022 - 19:30
                    -1

                    @Euphemistic: The climate mind control cult is only a small part of it, but thank you for admitting you blindly jump feet-first into groupthink without any personal effort on your part, while mocking all the other scientists who do and educate others on their nonsensical claims. Hint: If you actually checked some of their claims you'd see they've twisted, omitted, and outright lied. But it's much easier to ignore and laugh than put some effort in, right?

                  • [Deactivated] on 14/11/2022 - 19:32
                    -1

                    @Euphemistic: Oh and why should I do your fact-checking for you? Someone who puts no effort in of their own, only to have you excuse away every contradiction and every lie they've dreamed up anyway? Pointless. Ok, here's one… Did their poor polar bears starve and drown from the melting ice platforms floating off into the ocean? (No, there's more ice than ever.) Oh, now let's hear all the excuses… they made one mistake, miscalculated, etc. NO… THEY JUST LIED. And every time another lie is shown, you'll excuse it away. That's not science - that's a RELIGIOUS CULT.

                    • Euphemistic on 14/11/2022 - 20:56

                      @[Deactivated]: No point discussing with someone who claims lies, conspiracies and cult. Have a nice life.

    • Euphemistic on 13/11/2022 - 10:00

      Wow. Not sure if you actually believe that or just trolling.

      Electricity will never cost more than a tank of fuel and be virtually free if you can park under a bank of solar during the day.

      As for the outback, EVERYONE knows that EVs are not built for that purpose. If you want to travel outback, you’ll need to plan well enough to not run out of sparks. You can get electricity pretty much anywhere right now, just not out of a fast charger. Is it inconvenient to wait 10hours to charge off a standard GPO? Yes. Do you have to? No. Also, if you’re in the outback, you’ll likely have a solar panel with you that will at least run the AC all day even if it won’t move the car unlike running out of diesel. After all it’s not like no ICE vehicle has ever broken down in the outback either.

      • Hackney on 13/11/2022 - 10:10

        & you are referring to who?

        • Euphemistic on 13/11/2022 - 10:14

          Replied to Faulty …cell

          • Hackney on 13/11/2022 - 10:15

            @Euphemistic: Lucky for you!

            • Euphemistic on 13/11/2022 - 10:28

              @Hackney: Hybrids are the sweet spot for us because manufacturers aren’t pumping in EVs for us to buy. OS you can get dozens, possibly a hundred different models and were stuck with a few that are on backorder or sell out every allocation in minutes.

              Manufacturers are off loading all their old tech ICE vehicles knowing we’ll likely be upgrading to EVs sooner than we’d replace an ICE.

              • Hackney on 13/11/2022 - 10:31

                @Euphemistic: That is down to the last Governments policies on EV’s, nothing else. Hell, I got my Hybrid in 7 weeks!!

      • [Deactivated] on 14/11/2022 - 00:55
        -4

        Electricity prices have already doubled for many and more increases are coming. What do you think will happen as demand increases faster than they can build power stations?

        And you really are dreaming about long distance/outback. A solar panel run an aircon!? LOL! EVs ARE going to KILL PEOPLE. You just haven't thought critically beyond the first step of: "Buy EV = no petrol, yay!" Here's just one example:

        Government builds a solar powered charging station along an outback road, say 50% of the distance most EVs can travel, between two major towns. The idea being, a full charge gets you well past its halfway mark, so plenty of travel distance left in your EV to recharge, right? NO. You had a work accident a couple of years ago and you're on compo, or worse, Centrelink now. You can't afford a new EV every few years like most people will do, so you've been putting it off. Through the normal passage of time your battery pack has been degrading. But you know it still gets you 75% of the distance it used to. But wait, that was on the coast, where it only hits 40 degrees a few days a year. Now you're in the outback where it's routinely 45+ degrees. The battery pack heats up, so your 75% capacity goes down to 45%. Oops! You don't have enough to reach the charging station. Hope you carried a lot of water and Google Maps has corrected all its mistakes and hasn't led you down some washed out goat track, or you and your kids bodies will be found in 3 months once the cattle station owner finally ambles past to check his fence.

        Or, they're certainly not going to oversupply in those areas. So one day, too many EVs charge from it. Those dozen vehicles were only down 25% and didn't need to full recharge to 100%, but humans are selfish so they all did, and ran their aircon while waiting taking another 15%. They've all drained it faster than the limited solar space can recharge it. So you have to wait x hours in the heat now because they've programmed a limit, not to recharge until capacity reaches y% again, to prolong battery life. So you sit in the car, with your aircon on too, meaning you'll need even more charge, meaning you'll have wait even longer for the recharge station to recover.

        Or it just gets damaged by a truck that went off the road due to a tyre blowout, or a 50 cent capacitor or $1 transistor on its circuit boards failed, or one of a hundred other things that ONE EXTRA CAN OF FUEL in the boot of your ICE car would have saved you from.

        Or forget the outback… A freak storm, or some 9/11 wannabie, etc knocks out the grid in say, Melbourne. "No problem!" some EV guy says as he puffs out his chest… "I can even run my home off my EV, you can't do THAT with your obsolete ICE car!" Yeah, sure buddy - until it runs out in a few days at most. Meanwhile you learn the power plant will be offline, not for days, but for months. The trains have stopped, the buses are offline too because government made everything electric with our stolen and wasted tax dollars to please the psychopaths of the unelected EU like Klaus Schwab. Uber cars are half electric but the half still with ICE cars are hoarding their fuel in case they need to do an "Escape from New York" scenario. He's now using his 12 year daughter's bicycle to get to his hospital job 30km each way (hospital will have ample fuel for a diesel generator or huge multi-tens-of-thousand $ solar + battery bank from more of our stolen tax dollars, but his family is on their last can of spam and dry two-minute noodles because everyone had a run on the supermarkets (as we've already seen the last two years).

        Meanwhile the guy with the obsolete ICE car filled up with 60L of that nasty old petroleum government demonized, and he gets about 11km/L for a total distance of 660km which nearly gets his family to his sister's place just over the NSW border 700km away. They can either walk the last 40km, or she only has to meet them part way with a 5L fuel can for the last 40km, with 20km to spare (5L x 12km = 60km). He worked in IT… so his work shut down anyway with no power. No point sitting them at home heating spam with a candle. The EV IT guy can't go ANYWHERE.

        And in most instances broken down ICE vehicles are much easier to fix. Like I already said, they don't require an electrician, proprietary battery packs, highly specialized licensed software and laptops, etc. It's usually water, fuel, tyres, batteries. And on the rare instance it's something more, they simply order parts and wait in a hotel for 2-3 days… not need to get towed back to Parramatta Rd, Sydney to use the Volvo dealers proprietary diagnosis equipment.

        Unrealistic? Nope. It happened just a few years ago to people in the Newcastle/Hunter/Central Coast area. Their power was offline for a couple of weeks. Cold showers, hundreds of dollars in food thrown away by homes and business, businesses closed down, even Bunnings closed its doors after selling out of LPG refills, generators, torches and batteries.

        https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/central-coast/mi…

        • Euphemistic on 14/11/2022 - 06:17

          Wow. Again. Thanks for the doomsayer wall of text. Those examples are truly terrifying. You’ve changed my mind. EVs are no good. They aren’t quiet or energy efficient and won’t reduce city pollution. Solar panels are never going to be able to run my fridge if the grid goes down. Renewables will never be cheaper than coal fired power. We’re doomed. I’m gonna start buying tins of beans and ammo and go live in a cave.

          Dude seriously, we can t keep burning fossil fuels. Aside from the climate change thing you probably don’t believe in, they are going to run out at some point. We need to transition away from them. What’s your alternative?

  • OzFrugie on 15/11/2022 - 09:36

    If live in an apartment/unit blocks without charging infrastructure, that will be a hassle to have EV, right?
    Is there a good workaround for that?
    How long does the charging take anyway?

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