Shares are in carnage, now may not be the best time until DJ drops to 20000 - 25000 mark. By then our market should be at around 4500 points give or take.
For long term hold, which shares should we be looking at now when the value does drop more from here?
My take is below:
WBC
CBA
BHP
MIN
FMG (maybe as its too much of IO play but it does have the FFI potential)
Looking for 'safer' options with good dividend rather than speculative options, 5 years min hold.
With this idea inflation is mainly a bit of a ratchet up, but not an escalator, I'm also looking at beaten up discretionery spending and reliable retail getting caught in the cross fire. I think WES looks interesting. I'm also happy with TLS.
Sniffing around BGA and ING as I don't think people are going to stop buying vegemite or cheese, and while grain prices are high, chicken remains a lower cost alternative protein.
Also MEZ, which has been off a bit because of low rain in NZ, but I don't think that is forever either.
Like you, I am using it as a time to fill out a long term portfolio.
So I am trying to stay away from cheap speculative shares, even though they have been brutally punished.
And specificaly FMG. I am interested in the FFI optionality too - but I reckon there will be a time in the next few years when iron ore prices are low, and everone is yelling at Twiggy the FFI is costing too much. That will be the time to go all in.
Thank you for your input, I actually first purchased some FMG shares at a low price of around $5, still holding and been adding steady since, now I have a small portfolio of around 7000 shares. Looking to add to around 20000 shares if we see any major downward trends. Like you said resources are cyclical, however normally during high inflation periods resource stock tends to do better than the rest, but it all depends on how the CB can control inflation this time around. I would do some research on WES and MEZ as these are not originally on my target. With FMG I think ultimately once FFI comes online we will see either it becomes a spin off from FMG which will give FMG holders great reward or a money drainer which will do a lot of damages to the share price. Interesting times ahead.
7000 units at current price of 17.4… that’s approx $87,000 in FMG alone… I wouldn’t say that’s small!
Looking for 'safer' options with good dividend rather than speculative options
The recent WES price drop has got me damn near salivating.
.#notfinancialadvice #cantsuethis
I’m not convinced on Kmart’s performance. Bunnings did well over the pandemic but unsure if that’s sustainable. My user experience of catch.com is pretty rubbish.
❤️ a 👍 💉 🛀.
Enjoy.
Love a thumbs up injection in the bath?
Its a niche investment.
Only for the most discerning injectors investors
I 💼 with the 🔧 I got.
Woke ✏️ necks removed the blood syringe.
why WBC and not ANZ or NAB?
NAB maybe but not ANZ, I consider their service been the worst among the big 4, now you try to get over the line with ANZ's credit card department. I feel like talking to people should not be working there in the first place.
How do you distinguish the big 4 banks? Why choose one over the other?
Pick the bank that isn't money laundering.
Post from a true person who does not know how the stock markets around the world are interconnected via a number of different mechanism's.
A number of mechanisms, I see.
Everyone is always learning more about investing, because it is both complex and ever changing.
I happen to agree that the ASX is overdoing it. Ross Gittins has made a pretty persuasive case over the last couple of months that the issues we face in AU are much less pronounced than in the USA, and I think he is right that we won't see as many rate rises here (so AUD down) but we also won't have the accompanying substantial risk of a decrease in growth (so local shares are likely to maintain more of their earnings.)
And this will impact different shares in different ways. TLS might be largely unaffected, FMG might see earnings fall in USD as demand contracts, but could see earnings rise in AUD protecting the share price, as the dollar falls.If you read the broker analysis they pencil out some numbers on these sort of scenarios, but with so many moving parts, any assumptions get out of date as soon as you make them.
Since I live in AU, it makes sense for me to keep a lot of long term investments correlated to AU. It gives up some opportunity of gains made abroad and risks of currency changes for a more predictable return here. And there are local options like ETFs on international markets if I do want international exposure (developing markets always get hit hard and early in these sell offs, for example, though there is never an 'all clear' siren for them either).
and i thought this is good? as we are behind USA, just wake up read newspaper if they were red last night then short our stocks ?
99% success rate ?
try it not that easy for a start future index contract trades nearly 24h a day
so what you see red or green are future contracts so by the time our market open it should closely reflects the
the future contracts price so most stock will drop on open so there is no way for you to sell at yesterday price before it opened
nothing is that easy in financial market everything has risk attached.
I used to trade future index when I was younger but as I have family it becomes a bit stressful if I hold position over night
you always worrying what you wake up to hahah, then I thought why don't I quit holding position over night and trade just 30 minutes a day either side of
opening and closing but that too has different type of stress I have to be on my computer and glue it there for the next 30 minutes without disruption.
so I pause and decided to go with stock picking with longer time frame and dont have to worry and justs eat dividend
I probably come back to future index when I have more time in my 50s and 60s as I enjoyed it but it need focus
not the future but just major stock exchanges / ordinary shares ie NYSE etc etc for example when they fall hard, we are usually down too, so just short ASX
yeah that what I am saying by the time US market closed , you woke up, our future index contracts would have followed lower, future contracts are trade nearly 24/7 they only closed for 15min a day for equity future
so when ASX market opened, it will open lower, you can short on open but you have to take the market price as it already fallen X percentage, so you basically hope that it will go even lower then what it already drop but plenty of stocks recovered after initial drop so still plenty of risk attached
Berkshire Hathaway still owns 100 billion dollars in Apple, five years from now wouldn't surprise me if it were worth 150 billion.
Sure… but 150 billion in 5 years wouldn't probably buy much more than 100 billion when they bought it with the inflation rates!
However outpacing inflation is still an important investment priority (+ some)
WES is cheap right now imo
Just had a look, dividend is around 4.5% for WES, FMG is paying 14%, WBC is paying close to 9%.
What makes you saying WES is cheap? Love to hear a bit more.
i dont even know how to respond to that - this isnt financial advice
here is 10 tickers you might want to do your own DD on
WES, EDV, MQG, AIA, AD8, CSL, TNE, SOL, BKW and COH
any of these stocks i personally would buy right now or DCA into in the current market as im fairly confident of their long term future
FMG 14% yield on trailing 12 months is not an accurate forecast of future dividend yield. I think their next dividend will be around 80 cents per share.
The 5 shares to buy
DHHF.
or if you want to go fancy
VGS, VAS (or A200). VGE. [some might not want VGE]
or
VES, VEU, VAS
Dude, it was so obvious to see. I wrote about this in late-2019, early-2020, and then mid-2021.
We were already living in a bubble and long overdue for another recession. And I heard the rumblings about the pandemic in China. And after many months, it turned into a global pandemic. Even under normal circumstances, a global pandemic causes a recession. It's because it stops AND pauses the economy in several ways. However, the economy didn't respond as I anticipated. Meanwhile crypto boomed another time, then the stock markets, then the housing markets. Who knew with both the Republicans and Democrats, making the money printer go Bbrrrrr, it would increase the supply of money and undermine it's value?
November 2022 is when many businesses expect a good payday in Western Nations. This year it won't be. People's savings have dried up. The excess money has not made it to the people (instead concentrated above). And the economy has been difficult to bring back to normal (ie Embargo, Chip Shortage, War).
Watch as crypto crashes first, then the stock market, then (somewhat) the housing market. There will be many quick/temporary booms, but these are just dead cat bounces. We're all heading into a recession. We will be extremely lucky if it doesn't unravel into a Depression. Because that escalates the probability of death/war by hundreds of magnitude.
True yet you still cant buy a Toyota without waiting for more than 12months, or a leather sofa for less than 4-6 months.
I think its way too early to use the Depression word and we should see how everything plays out with the inflation first. Inflation needs to come down so I dont have to spend $7 for a lettuce.
As with shares, holding quality stocks over long term will benefit comparing those trying to timing the market. If all else fails there is always the LEGO route, which is beating the long term return on the SP
True yet you still cant buy a Toyota without waiting for more than 12months, or a leather sofa for less than 4-6 months.
I see that as pointing to the incredibly efficient just-in-time supply chain, and efficiencies of scale, that were developed in the decade of 2010-2020.
The decade of 2020 seems to be reversing all that. Now supply chains are having to duplicate and diversify across countries, production and labor costs are soaring, which means profit margins will tank. P/E ratio's were incredibly high leading up to the pandemic, and now earnings are going to fall off a cliff. Look at all the businesses going under that can't operate profitably in these conditions.
This is just a theory of the mechanics going on, will be interesting to see how it plays out in markets
We're all heading into a recession. We will be extremely lucky if it doesn't unravel into a Depression. Because that escalates the probability of death/war by hundreds of magnitude.
“Never let a good crisis go to waste”. W. C
The harder it 👊, the potential for greater gains.
The bond market has predicted 14 out of the last 5 recessions. It appears you have predicted 29 of the last 0 recessions.
It was so obvious that you wrote about it for 3 years in a row and now you are writing about it again. In that time you have lost a lot of money. But, of course, you may be right one day. Perhaps so right that being out of the market for 4 years means you will end up not too far behind.
I do wonder how many doomsayers are people who were not old enough to remember the late 1980s, let alone the 1970s. And perhaps not even early 2000s. If you have never seen a market go backwards for a period of time, it seems like its the worst thing possible. Except its just the markets going backwards. It happens, and then it doesnt happen. Talk of a depression is bizarre; the world has lived through inflation this high many times (indeed, it was the norm in the 1980s) and people have moved well beyond basic monetarist theory of money supply, which even monetarists acknowledge has flaws (eg assuming that supply and velocity of money are fixed? Basing economic decisions on what is clearly a theoretical model is weird).
Yes, you might be right and I might be wrong. Would I put my life savings into the market at the moment - no. Do I pull all my money out of the market - no.
I'm not a financial investor, so your point is moot.
I am not a PermaBear as you indicate, nor am I naive to think of Eternal Bull runs. However, if you go back in history you will see these boom/bust are cyclical and we were overdue since the 2008 crisis.
You are wise to play the long-game, and not reactionary to the constant fluctuations. It can be advised in some situations to take money out of the market, and into another asset. Physical Gold and Titles to Land, are the "best" hedge against fiat and the economy.
Talking of a depression is not bizarre.
Every economical depression that happened (obviously) started with a recession. And in all situations, it led to the death and decline of millions of people. We had become comfortable and ignorant, the people in first-world nations. A very decent life has been enjoyed from the 2001-to-2016 so there as been a significant time/ conditioning to think humanity has evolved past our past transgressions. Meanwhile, corruption is still rampant. Many systems are stacked against the collective good. And something like a pandemic has not united us against a common-enemy but led to divisions. And now there's Russia becoming bold and starting a War inside Europe.
…so it is not bizarre, a Depression is on the table, and we need to be serious about the implications of it.
I am keeping an eye on the VAS very closely, I think it has a long way to go yet. My comfortable level for VAS is at the $65 mark, as this is the price I first considered entry but never did so.
It will never get to that level. 65 is well below pre pandemic and with all the money that's been printed pfft.
That's why I have no money in the ASX lol. Not my super, not one cent.
But, but they say it's going to zero.
the 5 companies in the original post are limited to financial and mining sectors. Not much spread there… having said that the asx by market cap is biased towards those two sectors.
unless you know the stock market and the business you invest in and have a reasonable understanding of its balance sheet
most better off just buy the broad index ETFs, it removed a lot of the risk associated with holding single share
How are the ETFs doing nowadays?
Is anyone buying the dip?
Broad Index ETFs are market return, market tank you tank, market bull run you get market bull run
I have never actually sold a single ETFs shares, I only ever increase holding every so often
so I don't care where the market is headed, I hold for endless passive income stream
it paid me 4-5% yield since I started over decade ago and I keep adding to it.
market back then it was under 3500 pips it now 6400 pips, where it heading or crash no one know and I don't care.
I just topped up every so often, I have a very simple process and formular when it comes to ETFs
every 3 months my little program go off to the internet grab the country economy data I need, did a bit of a calculation
and it spit out a ratio for me.
when the ratio within a value based range, it trigger a buy and I just go get a few
more ETFs shares, if it doesn't trigger a buy for that quarter I do nothing, if it trigger a strong buy I buy double
what I used to get, dead simple, no emotions, don't care weather market in a bear or bull market.
dividend keep coming in every few months, never miss a beat, some year more some year less,
my capital keep growing and I just lives off dividend, no stress.
I can drive around Australia for 12 months and switch off and don't care what the market is up to
dividend just keep coming in and always there every few months.
market back then it was under 3500 pips it now 6400 pips,
How many years is this?
@rektrading: way back in 2009 now 2022, in 2032 I would have more ETFs holding and more dividend and the market could be at 5000 or 7000 or 10000 I don't really care, every 3 months I either add more or I sits on the fences till end of day
way back in 2009 now 2022
This is why I don't play the value stonks game.
It's either growth or nothing at all.
Resources are cyclical. Make your own decision where they are in the cycle.
I think the banks are good, with scope to increase margins as rates rise a bit. Especially if customers find it a bad time to sell/refinance.
But balanced against less real estate activity - which I think benefits the big banks more.
I think our market is way over reacting to some price rises. Outside of some tradies and ICT people, I don't see anybody getting pay rises that beat inflation. We don't have huge powerful unions any more, too many people are casuals or contractors - very hard to push for big wage rises to stoke ongoing inflation.
So what we are left with is some real price rises due to supply - that will sort itself out over time, and some price rises while everyone else is doing it (e.g. the supermarkets). Neither points to ongoing inflation.