Just had a peak at my govy Super. Its down 10% from December (and chuck in inflation dilution to that figure and its not good).
Almost every financial class is about to break, or has broken.
So is it time, or perhaps past time to go Cash with Super?
I hate cash (which is losing by default), but everything else is falling faster than cash..and the Fed reserves only play is to raise rates.
add to the pool, chose bitcoins, maybe ?
and dont forget the usual: casino
Nah they don't get the safety of the disclaimer unless OP specifically says "Not a financial advisor" or "#notfinancialadvice".
Don't choose shares only.
I've got a 40/60 split aus / international and my super is getting taken out back and beaten to death.
I'm currently in High Growth..which is basically this. It's only down 10%.. and Putin hasn't done anything stupid yet, election fall out blah blah.
Depends on your age I guess but my strategy for the next few years is to close my eyes and hopefully by the time I open them again both my super and shares will be on the way back up.
Which is the norm. But I've never been a good sheep. I'm mid 40's (hence in high growth int shares). I just see it as a unique opportunity to play with a few hundred thousand $$
if your strategy is to react to the market, you are going to lose big time. I can imagine the day you finally move everything over to cash the market will have hit the bottom. Stick to your long term strategy.
Hence now when the shitstorm clouds are rolling in….I think we have a lot further to drop than 10% . Whats your thoughts?
If you didn't want to do it 3 months ago when everything was a lot higher in value, why does it seem like a good idea now? You are reacting to the markets, not predicting them.
Even if you sell now and it does continue to drop, then you have the task of timing the bottom, which you may also fail to do.
At this point you are gambling, and if you don't have many years of experience and understand the economics enough to make a prediction, it's as good as playing roulette.
Even punters know a thing or two about their football teams when they place bets.
I filled in my change of investment option when Russia were mobilising on the border. But had to take my employer to court and it got put to the wayside. Decided to have a look at my super and it was a little less bad than I expected.
Now looked at the Nasdaq, ASX, gold and commodity prices, the fuel excise discount, employment figures, debt and inflation figures, crypto markets, rates, bonds, housing and construction…and what is happening with NATO, and China trade.
I guess I see plenty of opportunity for decline and not much opportunity for growth. So i guess my question should really be..
where do you see the economy heading over the next 6 months?
The thing I don't get is how (for example) Qantas is almost at its all time high. Yet it had a fleet of planes on the ground doing nothing for a year. Income is negative.
I think inflation is hiding some (ie its at its ATH, but the $ is worth less).. but I'd expect Qantas valuations at least half of 2019 highs.
I basically feel like we are all pretending there is no pandemic, there is no maniac at war, there is no run away debt issues, we aren't all over invested in housing, we are all employed and there are no climate issues..
@tunzafun001: Will my opinion of the economy change your mind? If you have a prediction, and you're pretty confident, then go for it!
@Keplaffintech: Yeah for sure.
Definitely not confident, as I think the world economy should have been halved (at least by now).
Maybe it has gone close (subconsciously with all the cash printing). Dunno…
That's what I'm here for ..wisdom of the crowd.
I still remember reading people converting their super to defensive right after the 2020 March crash, say they will wait for the right moment to converted back to Aggressive except they kept thinking it will crash more. Not sure what happen to them now.
You need a strategy, not assurance from others.
many would have locked in the losses after going to cash, and probably missed out on the big gains that happened soon after.
Here is the best analysis I have come across on this topic OP. Hope it gives you some food for thought:
It could be bottom. It could go down.
Don't worry.
2022 will be a small blip on the chart in 40Y.
HODL
Time will tell, but Super is one of the biggest low tax assets I have, and if played correctly at the GFC, start of Covid, the war etc.. could have added another 50% easily. The cost of a strategy change is just $20
Pension funds are the ultimate hodl scheme. There is no sell button, only buy and hodl.
Most people don't pay any attention to what or where the 💵 is invested. They don't even know that they can 🙃 to get better yield.
Yep. Looking at my Super from Pre Covid to now (factoring in inflation), on paper it's up… but in reality its flogged.
Maybe I should have asked what do people think the ASX / NASDAQ etc will drop by? Looking at my Super over the last few years its a bit of a head and shoulders… not good…I think.
head and shoulders
Don't pay any attention to that unless it's validated (breaks the support) or actively trading.
Balance it with bonds that’s what I read on couple of forums.
With so much printing, are bonds worth anything?
You didn't state anywhere near enough info to get proper meaningful advice (your age, net worth, amount in super etc) - so in short - No it's too late to go moving super around now - as by the time the sell orders get through you're likely going to be selling out of assets that have taken hits to get into assets that are on the ascend.
And moreso - as this is such a basic thing but folks never listen - don't try and time the market - you and even pros are not smart enough - so being that super is a long term investment - leave it in, don't look at the balance and know that in 10-25yrs or whenever you need it, it will be fine. Simple.
OP fancies themselves a kind of a opportunistic trader. Fun times.
Day traders always retire early. Retire from the market that is because they lost their shirts.
Losing shirts is still okay, at least you still have your under wear!
Don't want to be caught naked when the tide goes out.
Too late already!
Cheers. What makes you say that?
I'm thinking..
The ASX is only 8% of its all time high. Crypto markets have plunged big time, but on a 5 year scale aren't too bad (except for the 'L' one). Nasdaq has dropped, but looking at past parabols…she's got some falling. In terms of employment data (it's a joke and will come home to roost). The printing situation and national debt is beyond repayable. Our relationship with China isn't good. Rates are just starting to be raised. Throw in another 3 -4 … etc etc
The ASX200 (XJO) was 6696 on 2 Nov 2007. It is now 7062.
S&P500 was about 1500 at that point and now 3930.
If you haven't put any more money into the ASX you would have gone almost nowhere. If you dollar cost average you would be ahead. But if you want serious growth (and retire) invest overseas. The S&P like 12%+ off ATH and yet still beats the ASX.
Most bear markets are 20% off highs so it is pretty close now. Too late to sell.
if you're retiring soon, it's too late….
if you're not retiring soon, who cares….
Another 20 years or so… and I care, as my networth is less than Dec 21 (including all income earnt this year to date), ie my Super is going down faster than my yearly salary.
I am lucky though as I have investments outside Super, and not sure if I will ever be alive when I finally get to touch it.
Super is going down faster than my yearly salary
Means you got a lot of money which is a good thing.
my networth is less than Dec 21
My net worth is lower than the last salary pay date (because I had to spend some), I don't mop around. Just keep on dollar cost averaging.
20 years? Bro you've got nothing to worry about.
as my networth is less than Dec 21, ie my Super is going down faster than my yearly salary.
zoom out on the graph/trend……………
Moving it locks in your loss.
Two weeks ago.
I'd rather not check my super balance right now.
If you go defensive now, you are likely to miss the recovery.
Unless you are retiring within the next five years, leave it as is.
I guess do you think we will see anything recovering in the next 6 months, or declining?
I'm thinking the later..and a LOT more… 20 Twenty Poo.
if you invest/trade long enough the two things you can't predict is a major fall and a major recovery.
If you think things will go down further, go defensive, but be prepared to miss out when the bottom does hit.
The last major fall was 2020 and you wouldn't have exited until the bottom most likely and wouldn't have gone back in until July and missed a good chunk of the recovery.
super is a long term investment, set and forget unless you are in your fifties, even then, I would say it's a bit too late now.
I changed investment class pre GFC and post. I didn't pick the perfect bottom or top. But came out approx 30% better off for two clicks of a mouse and $20 fee. That is my highest earnings in a short time ever.
But came out approx 30% better off
You would have been better off buying the Index. The S&P500 went 3x from 1500 to 3500.
ASX200 even if you bought half way down you would have made 50% (even today)
Yes. Time in the market > timing the market.
It's a govy super fund. Can only move investment type.
You sound like a regular Warren Buffett. Why are you asking on a forum for cheapskates?
If you didn't see the drop, you won't see the bounce.
Aren't we seeing the drop. ASX has hardly moved.. pretty sure she will
If you only get paid super every 3 months, and within that period, there is the bottom of the market, does it mean you miss out?
Compare with the scenario where lets say in the first month, you change to all cash, 2nd month is the bottom and with luck you switch to shares again
If you stick with first scenario ie do nothing, then you will miss the gain. Is this how the super fund works?
Nah, Super is just units in a fund, and the unit price changes daily. If you change your investment option, it sells off all your units at the closing price the next day, and buys into the new chosen option at whatever the unit price is at the same time.
So any change has a delay of approx 24hrs.
Do not go cash, unless you're months away from retiring. Worst decision anyone could make.
Right now with stocks at lower prices your Super is buying more units every month as the price is cheaper! This is exactly what you want. If you bailed to cash you would be buying nothing and LOSE all of that opportunity for a big upside once prices restore themselves.
Leave it as-is. Super is for long term. If you start playing with it you could screw yourself. Also, many Super programmes don't let you change asset allocation quickly, it can take a day or even more. A market movement could happen against your favour and there's nothing you can do about it - you lose.
Interesting.. I guess X amount is paid into your super, and if the units are cheaper, I guess this checks out.
But if you went cash, and say kept your portfolio at $400k, while if left it would have went to $280k. Then when there is an uptrend divergence you pile $400k back in…you can buy $120k worth of extra units.
I also have a managed fund and that is currently losing the total number of units and value. But perhaps the unit reduction is just fees.
OP 🤔 of this way.
The price of the units in pension funds goes up because people are buying. You're selling when you convert to cash which puts downward pressure on the price.
Do you really want to OZB to lose 💵?
🤔 about su familia.
Yes, would love to put downward pressure on the unit price. Then buy back in when the ass drops out.
Even better if you could do in on a Luna level and short it at the same time. Has there ever been easier money made.
Pensions funds are not crypto. They are invested in real tangible assets that either produce or increase in value over time. These assets are spread over a broad range of investments. People buying in and selling out of a particular pension fund is not what drives the prices it is their real world value and return on investment also known as dividends. Buying and selling in and out of pension funds would no more affect their value than buying and selling in the individual investments they own. THEN if there was a lot of selling pressure their value could go down just like the market because they are invested in the market..
Real tangible assets that have offices in California and around the world with 100000s of workers,
with things, investors can touch like computers, desks, chairs, coffee makers, etc.
Thinks that makes stonks really 👍.
Tech Sell-Off: Down 51%, This Hot Growth Stock Looks Like a Screaming Buy
By Harsh Chauhan - May 13, 2022 at 11:19AM
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/13/tech-sell-off-hot-…
The assets are just pamped up stonks that tanked -51%.
Every financial institution has offices and real estate because they are a business. Pensions funds don’t own them. They might operate out of them but they don’t own them.
Also Motley Fool use stories like that to drag you into their ecosystem. It’s like a letter from Readers Digest telling you that you may have won a large cash prize. It’s a sucker sell.
The assets are just pamped up stonks that tanked -51%.
If it's good enough for btc……
@SBOB: But stonks have tangible things that people can touch.
They shouldn't damp like a 🗑️ 🔥.
Tech stocks (NDX) lose nearly $1.7 trillion in value over 3 day sell-off @TheTerminal
$AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $TSLA $GOOGL $NVDA $FB $ASML $ABNB $INTU the biggest losers. https://t.co/rI0kbbYSWc
But stonks have tangible things that people can touch
But btc is a hard asset that has limited supply, underlying mathematic fundamentals, low fees and Satoshi doesn't lie
It shouldn't damp like a 🗑️ 🔥.
@SBOB: It's working as intended by coming back to test previous resistance and making it to support.
https://files.ozbargain.com.au/upload/393946/90105/screensho…
I should make a new one.
It's working as intended by coming back to test previous resistance
I didn't see that in the code or white paper?
How is that different than regular stonks you're complaining about?
@SBOB: Anyone that has been a hodl long enough will know the price has everything to do with the halving.
Edit mixed-up words.
@rektrading: It's how the market and traders react or justify the price…
But you said it's 'working as intended' and dropping 50% in price over the last 200d has nothing to do with code or white paper intentions
@SBOB: Hodlers aren't selling. It's the weak 🙌.
People can see the data for themselves.
https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.…
@rektrading: You’re kidding right? Or in some other universe altogether. 3 days does not give you an accurate view of stocks. Try 300 years. The only similarity between crypto and stocks is the trading by idiots. The technical analysis is becoming comparable but that is also a short term phenomenon. Crypto is not supposed to trade in tandem with stocks but traders are following the trend. WTF does that say about crypto? Are crypto traders sheep or lemmings?
Tech stocks (NDX) lose nearly $1.7 trillion in value over 3 day sell-off @TheTerminal
$AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $TSLA $GOOGL $NVDA $FB $ASML $ABNB $INTU the biggest losers. https://t.co/rI0kbbYSWc
I don't have time to pull up a chart for each stonks but I can tell by 👀 at the numbers that the 3 day sell-off is the equivalent of the ASX Mcap plus some.
Stonks have turned into a pamp and damp under the watchful 👁️ of the SEC.
You need to shift your mindset from how much your super is valued at today but how much underlying assets you own. You don't stress how much your house is valued on a day to day basis because it isn't valued until you sell and that isn't for most people until well into the future.
It was time to go defensive in November. If you do it now you bake in your losses. Ride it out and remember over time it will always recover and grow.
Cheers. What do you think is better now than was in November? Or i guess what hasnt gotten worse since November?
Volatility started in earnest in November. The VIX is still in the 30 range. I’d like to see it go over 40 and there be real pain then the market might start to recover. I’d still be waiting for it to settle under 20 before putting my neck out. Google the VIX chart.
if you say so, then it is right. no one else can tell you the future. trust yourself - after you do your own study of course not before