Do You Feel "Patient Enough' to Become Financially Poor?

And so it goes again - our fearless monetary leader yet again is going to be "patient" with driving this economy into a stagflation like a bicycle into a truck - https://www.morganstanley.com.au/ideas/the-RBA-remains-patie…
This is going to be a slow-moving process but eventually this will be a bloody train wreck for most of us.

Apologies to all short-attention-span folks who will be TLDR-ing this piece and moving onto the next cat-video in your playlist but for all you who want to know more about rising petrol prices and cost of living - read on.

We have alarmingly high levels of inflation in this country, and none of it is temporary as the RBA governor is trying to play it. All inflation is permanent for a simple reason that inflation is cumulative process - which means that every reported positive reading in inflation will take from you incrementally and more so from your future earnings.

Even if the level of inflation levels drops but remains positive, this simply means that the cumulative part of it has slowed but you are still being robbed of your current and future earnings. And with every incremental increase, the scale of robbery builds up like a pyramid.

But what can you do about it? What RBA can do about it? They say we say that all inflation is imported and is a result of geopolitical instability. Which is LIE! Every bit of inflation is LOCAL and based on supply / demand equation and every Central bank governor /chair knows that. RBA policies were the only reason for creating this overheated economy with high demand pull and sky-high inflation numbers as a result. Zero-bound interest rates, "free money" Term Funding Facility and massive government fiscal stimulus heavily distorted the cornerstone of a responsible monetary policy - the price of money and with the money becoming dirt cheap and easily available it has inflated prices on everything around you.

It just so happens that some Central banks governors and FED chairs are more honest than others with New Zealand, Canada, UK already having raised interest rates multiple times! The US is getting ready to do 7 hikes this year and even Eurozone ECB is turning hawkish!

Australia is NOT an exception, we just have the most hypocrite and untrustworthy politicians who manage to get the best "optics" but not results and do not have a capacity to think past the next election cycle. Inflation needs to become a political issue because politicians refuse to see anything below that.

New Zealand, our closest neighbor and a very similar economy, have raised rates several times and now their interest rates are on the pre-pandemic level because they know what they have done, what is coming, being honest about it and demonstrated the level of accountability that you would expect from a decent government. But Australian Central bankers remains "patient" and have not done ANYTHING, nothing at all to get off the emergency pandemic monetary policies - are we really such different economies, all of a sudden? Is Australia still in the middle of a pandemic or are we we being handed out the biggest bull$hit of a life-time by our own government bodies?

Inflation via fiat currency is a direct attack on your property rights on your current and (most importantly) future earnings and on you as a citizen because it happens without your consent and that is immoral and is illegal. Most people would not notice inflation as it happens gradually but then hits all of a sudden at a time when you will have to make a choice about which bill you have enough money to pay off this month.

YOU have a power to change that with your VOTE! Speak or write to your MP, make sure they listen to you. With the federal election looming, write to your local candidates - make sure your voice is heard. Speak to your family members, your neighbors, your cat for haven's sake.

If you feel like you are running on hamster wheel with all those ever-increasing bills and taxes coming at you and you seeing nothing for it, don't be "patient"! If you are worried about high inflation eating away at your future, don't keep silent, speak out!

Comments

  • +8

    Fam, literally nothing is going to happen. It doesn't matter if you cry out at the top of your lungs or cut yourself into a million pieces. The world is the way it is for a reason. And to be completely honest, the way I see it is that the people around me are 110% content with the way they live their lives. Suggest a change back to the gold standard? Well guess what, you're a boomer. Suggest a change to crypto? Your a conspiracy theorist and you are supporting a Ponzi scheme. There really is no winning. Governments will do whatever it takes to stay in power, cough cough USA/Liberal Party AUS. Just live your best life and focus on what matters most to you.

    • That being said inflation is hella stoopid, and I am not an economist™.

      • Inflation is the closest thing we have to wealth tax, it adds an important incentive to use capital productively.

        • BIG wrong - high interest rates is an important incentive to use capital productively

          Inflation is a robbery.

        • Lol you have got this completely backwards.

          Wealthy people are hardly effected by inflation because their wealth is stored in inflation-proof assets like shares and property.

          Meanwhile the poor who have 20k in their savings account and are saving to buy their first home will be absolutely DESTROYED by inflation. They get no interest on their savings, and house prices inflate away faster than they can save. Their incomes rise slower than inflation and they get poorer every year.

    • I do think we can turn this if it becomes POLITICAL challenge.

      Look at the US - all it took is for the voters to put Biden into an inflation spotlight and he immediately turned to Jay and said "I believe Jay will fix it".
      Now Jay is going to raise rates 7 times and be another Paul Volcker.

      I reckon, our small town doctor would also want to become an Australian hero who tamed the inflation (if only he was allowed)…
      So I am saying - make it Political, scream your lungs out!

      • +1

        As you can tell by the dumb comments that don't contribute to your post - I have come to realise that Australians in general, just doesn't care about politics (or other many important things that really do matter). They are not willing to question things, or poke the bear, or voice their opinion, or intellectually debate things with another, or even stand up for their ethics/rights. Just whitty 1-liners for a laff, no depth. Meanwhile, accepting to live life, silently screaming on the inside.

        Nobody questions the govts - the propagnada in the media, the ridiculous bills that passed in just the past 2 yrs, the daylight robbery of this "inflation", why these recent petrol prices are just a rort by the oil companies and have nothing to do with "shortage/freight costs/cost of oil" as they say, etc.

        We have a pathetic tool of a leader on top who likes to fabricate metal to the naked eye & blind himself, even though he's wearing the helmet!! If we had to punch on with another country, how do you think he'll handle it? Scomo is a Scumo & he'll flee like a bitch he is.

        Look how he handled vaccine supply, RAT tests supply, not providing free RAT tests, not compensating small biz when they had to halt their income for close to a whole year, losing our entire import/export industry with China to NZ (biggest income for AU is import/export & tourism - where are they now? gone to shits). Look at all the shit we get taxed on. Look at the taxation on alcohol & tobacco in this country. Look at all the taxes we pay and we still have shit roads, shit healthcare system, shit aged care system, shit innovation, etc. The country is broken - such a shame too.

        And the vibe is that everyone seems to be okay with that kind of leadership by saying & doing nothing… Okay, then be nothing. Be okay with things taken away from you, or being forced upon you. The more we say nothing, the more flops like this are in power, and essentially the less rights you have. Saying nothing & saying something are both choices. Don't complain about nada if you don't say anything.

        But don't worry - she'll be right…..

        • I hear what you are saying and that is sad to hear.

          I do agree with most of what you said, however, I do believe in one thing - all "democratic" leader manage to the optics.
          And this means if we can make the optics look bad enough through screaming, complaining, laying it out on anyone who wants to hear but most importantly MPs, any media, any outlet that allows for an opinion, then we can make a change.

          Don't get bogged down with one-liners - let them have it. As long as others will hear and will act - we can get it done.

  • +11

    Stopped reading at 'high inflation in this country' welcome to the world.

    BTC

    • -1

      Look at the chart of your BTC.
      I do own some coin but crypto is a 10x Beta on risk NOT an inflation hedge

      • You low time preference. This is why you fail to see BTC as an inflation hedge.

        • What is I meant (and said) is that the chart of BTC now is the 10xVOL chart of NASDAQ.

          High Beta - Yes, Risk ON - Yes, Inflation hedge - NO.

          Check on the number of hedge funds now in crypto and then research the term "VaR shock" and you will understand what I am saying.

  • +30

    Good rant, which lost direction several times. Know of any bargains?

    • +3

      Savage.

    • -1

      Anything and Everything.
      Inflation expectations are going to make all that is available a bargain in a few months.

      Except for real estate - that thing is staring into the abyss

  • +12

    My two take aways from this…

    1) it really needs a TLDR
    2) are other people getting cat videos on ozbargain? Wheres my cat video playlist?! Must be in the premium accounts…

    • +4

      did u say cat videos

      where where

    • +1

      I think I have subscribed to almost every cat subreddit there is, but I didn't know I could come to OzBargain for cat related content!

      • -1

        Op just suggested a new forum CATegory, not all was lost from this post!

        (Sorry, couldn’t leave the cat pun hanging)

    • -1

      Utube

  • +1

    Yes I agree

  • +1

    what can we actually do? as long as the majority are content, which they are, everyone else has to deal with it. the sad reality is that short of some major catastrophe, or monumental event that somehow changes things, we are not able to do anything about it.

    • Scream into your MPs ear and write a nasty post on ScoMo facebook page.

      Politicians like pornstars - the only thing that gets under their skin is when you expose the fact that they are impotent in a particular area.

  • +15

    YOU have a power to change that with your VOTE!

    My dear, naive child.

    • +5

      Democracy is a fantasy.
      We like to spout it, or even use it as an excuse to "liberate" other peoples. The truth is that, it doesn't truly exist in any nation. At least not to the extent that we have convinced ourselves. The opposite side is that there is no "real" communist nations either. There are people in power, who use whatever tools they have to extend their power or keep it. And then there is the middle class that usually gets attacked financially and security. And lastly the poverty class of people who are victims of themselves and the system, but can also be perpetrators for some things.

      If you want to change something, stop thinking about voting for a second, think about what you personally could do and then discuss in your head if that is something worth chasing. There are people who do this, for instance, wildlife preservation. However, voting isn't a very effective method. It is a very diluted (and lazy) way of taking action.

      I'm not saying "do not vote" but merely saying that afoveht above is correct. There are more affective ways to achieve your goals, some ethical and others unethical.

    • Why do I feel like OP listens to Triple J…

      • Never heard of them…
        I usually don't listen carefully to anyone with less than 10bn under management.

    • +1

      Not so naive if the screams are loud enough.

      When the pitchforks come out - they tend to listen

      • +1

        Now you're talking.

        But maybe read some good lit before you pick up the tools. If inflation is your biggest concern you're already doing it wrong.

        • Eat the rich?
          (っˆڡˆς)

  • +2

    Gm fam,

    I just dropped by to repeat this.

    The cash rate won't go up to make any meaningful impact on either inflation or real estate prices.

    Enjoy the rest of the day.

    • Not sure why you are so obsessed with RE but it has taken care of itself.
      Price increase in the largest money tightening of them all - cure for higher prices is higher prices.

      Good luck of course, it always goes up.

    • BTW, if you so anxious about RE prices then you should be the first in line to scream demanding rate hikes.

      Think it through:
      1. RE prices already high to point that all positive developments have been priced in when some of those have been taken away (like TFF and bonds purchases by RBA) so there is already a massive tightening there
      2. Any meaningful inflation will be an extra tightening on top of that - with all living expenses going up, those poor bag-holders who recently purchased will go under water. And that is not to mention the hyper speed of the rate of change that we see in inflation right now. That is a further tightening.
      3. The banks will increase the "living expenses" benchmark in the balance-sheet assessment for new applicants which is fair as they need to assess their risks properly. Tightening #3
      4. Commercial banks now need to roll-over their debt in the open market and where do you think the rates have gone given RBA have ended their RMBS purchases? That is #4
      5. Should our fearless doctor blink for another one-two meetings, we will be well aligned for a stagflation to begin in earnest. And that will be end of all leveraged long-duration plays with high unemployment and banks as tight as ScoMo's forward-looking in his decisions.

      I'd give it a few months of "being patient" before the blood-shed begins.

      • -1

        Higher (or lower) real estate prices don't bother me. The same goes for rising inflation and cash rates hikes. I've already cashed out when the opportunity presented itself and went 99.99% into hard assets. I earn a yield on the assets and BTFD with dry powder.

        The feds can do what they want to try and control it but it's futile. The price on hard assets will go up the right, inflation will keep the momentum and increasing the cash rates will be for show.

        • You got me curious, mate. Care to share what is that "hard asset" that will not be affected by rate hikes and even better - earns a yield?!

          • +2

            @ALesha77: I think rektrading has invested in art. He owns 0.005% of a Banksy artwork!

  • +5

    Switched to video of cat licking its own butt

    There were fewer CRAZY CAPS, made more sense overall

    • +1

      I don't read long comments unless they have the occasional caps and then I only read the caps as this gives me everything I need to know about the writer and their message and it just takes a few seconds.

  • +2

    YOU have a power to change that with your VOTE! Speak or write to your MP, make sure they listen to you. With the federal election looming, write to your local candidates - make sure your voice is heard. Speak to your family members, your neighbors, your cat for haven's sake.

    It's easier to pack up and move than try to change a corrupt system that is rigged by a duopoly.

    • I do not think there are any decent places left in the world where politicians play a fair game. Have to stand your ground where you are.
      Papa Elon is working on Plan B but that will take a looong time.

  • Any stats (ie links) to provide evidence inflation is on such a dramatic rise? (I am genuinely asking)

    Anecdotal evidence is evidence but should be viewed in light of macroeconomics; imo.

    (That's right neg me instead of providing links, no worries).

    Confirmation bias rules!

    https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/australia-infla…

    2.9% (annual 2021) …. get a grip.

    • +3

      you buy your own groceries ?

      • Anecdotal.

        • +1

          almost everything went up on woolie

          frozen berries 5 ->5.8
          frozen peas 2 -> 2.2
          frozen brocolli 2.5 ->2.7
          frozen mixed 3 ->3.3
          yoghurt 5 ->5.5
          plastic cheese 3.9 -> 4.25
          longlife milk 1.35

    • +2

      The mainstream argument is supply chain inflation is a once off due to COVID interruptions combined with increased demand as people use the money they saved not eating out and holidaying to buy a new car, new house etc. chasing limited supply.
      Petrol is obviously impacted as the worlds biggest exporter is offline due to sanctions.

      Since inflation has been dead for a decade plus, the central bank is hoping this will prompt some wage rises, and allow them to gradually raise interest rates, with the effect of cooling real estate and equity markets.
      But they want to do it without scaring the horses that might block wages rises and lower employment, so it is a tricky path.

      It might work, or inflation might sag anyway as COVID recedes. The third option is inflation will run away. The Austrian school of economics says this must happen, and should have happened already since 2008 and the GFC.
      This appears to be factually wrong, which is why the people still posting about it are the “wall of text, wake up sheeple” variety.

      • +1

        worlds biggest exporter

        TIL.

        the central bank is hoping this will prompt some wage rises

        HAHAHAHAHAHA… *cries*

        • +1

          Neck and neck with the Saudis. When Saudi Arabia is running at full tilt, they nose ahead, but they are only running at about 90% capacity, I think.

          I think there is a reasonable prospect for wage rises. There is a still a shortage, with few foreign students to exploit, er…fill the low paid sector, so there is pressure there.
          Well unionised sectors will be pushing for gains above inflation, and it will be hard to argue minimum wage shouldn’t rise by more than inflation.
          If the covid disruptions are a blip, and competition pushes prices down again, it might result in better wages. And if it means interest rates can be restored to something that isn’t driving house prices astronomically, that would also be great.

          • @mskeggs: Decreasing supply and increasing demand ought to mean a commodity price goes up.
            Business believes and loves it except when it’s the labour market.

      • @mskeggs,

        Your read on this is completely wrong, sorry to say this.

        Not only we had issues with supply chains, the central banks and politicians have run all economies red hot due to fears of depression. They have severely distorted the price of money through 0% rates, heavy fiscal programs and "free money" hand-outs in essence guaranteeing private debt.
        Even the MMT proponents say that there HAS to be a LIMIT and that all ahnd-outs need to be off-set with higher taxes. And that clearly was not the case with taxes breaks and other stimulus.
        And the technology, demographics and debt won't save from inflationary pressures because now we need more stimulus injections every time the demand goes down.

        So, sadly you have got it all wrong my friend. The deflationary forces are no longer in play and will not work for a while after this crazy shit-load of money windfall.
        This is why FED has retired "transitory" for some time already and started hiking, hiking, hiking. Australia is obviously in the outer space when it comes to making unpopular decisions.

      1. always get a pinch of salt when you use official stats
      2. It is the rate of change that matters (if you are a macroeconomist, you should know that and that is what my post is about)

      Even from that under-reported official stats: the rate of change should tell you that inflation has picked up pace of 2.5-3x - that is a hell of a change.

  • "Eurozone ECB is turning hawkish!"

    sorry you must have missed the war in Ukraine thats on atm

    • Spend you a bit of time with the bonds charts.
      And take another listen to a recent Madame Lagarde's speech.

  • +1

    True Leaders plant trees to provide shade for future generations. Instead we have fairytale submarines in a fairytale location

  • +1

    What a rant.

    • Cool bro, can you do that?

  • +4

    "YOU have a power to change that with your VOTE!"

    Not really…the RBA is independent to the Federal Govt…

    • +1

      You wish.

      Revisit the "tender relationship" story between Josh and dr Lowe from the press.
      Not always fiends but there is a strong connection…

  • Hmm, not sure where you are getting your bullshit figures from:

    "Fed chairman Jerome Powell also gave a bullish outlook for the economy and employment and lifted the central bank’s GDP and inflation forecasts. Markets rallied on the optimistic outlook, as traders and analysts pencilled in three 25 basis point interest rate hikes in 2022 and a further five to the end of 2024."

    But who would believe the Financial Review?

    • I am getting my figure from 3,5 and 10 year bonds. Your bullshit figures are obviously more trustworthy.

  • Speak to your family members, your neighbors, your cat for haven's sake.

    OP, thanks to you my cat just died. Instead of feeding her, I started reading out your thread description verbatim to her.
    I think she might still be alive if there was a TL;DR.

    • +1

      Sorry about your cat, it probably decided to take it's life before that catfood price skyrocket

  • ok

  • What are you saying overall OP?
    You should sell your post as a bargain to us at OzB, i.e. a TLDR.
    Don't think too much and live a happy life within your means.

    • You would be surprised - I naively thought that there would be financially literate people as the forum is called "Financial" but it full of cat-lovers.. and people who love cat-videos… you can probably call them cat-lovers too… anyway, feel free to move on to your next cat-video when you are done posting TLDR

      • Yes you’re big time affected by this inflation issue. But what do you want from us? I don’t get your passive aggressive treatment on some strangers here lol.

        • They're saying that it's too much leverage in the system and that it must pop soon.

          • @rektrading: And pop it will. But not because I said that, that's just how it works.

        • There is an old Asian proverb:
          "The knowledge (teacher) comes when the student is ready"

          No, I do not want anything from you in particular. Those who need to hear have heard.
          So, sorry if my "passive aggressive" has deeply offended you.

          And BTW, it is not just me who will be affected by inflation big time, it is all of us.

  • +1

    if its inflation due to supply constraints, monetary policy wont do shit. Monetary policy only helps against demand push inflation which isn't happenign in our world today

    • Funny.
      So, you think that the interest rates near zero, 600 billion of "free money" in TFF, different grants and other forms of Keepers / Seekers / Shareholder-enriching schemes have NOT created a "demand push" inflation?
      In essence, EVERYTHING that this government has done since COVID begun was to create a demand push, to hand out free money for people to spend, to create demand pull inflation.

      Supply constraints… Really? THAT is certainly what RBA governor and SCoMo are trying to convince you about but for once use your own brain and THINK.
      Supply issues is when you DON'T get your toilet paper for any kind of money but NOT when the price of the good goes parabolic and you might be better off using that pile of worthless money to wipe up your bottom than bother going to the supermarket to exchange one shitty paper for another.

  • Put money into crypto.

    • Crypto-people have become really annoying.

      I still have some coins but generally have covered my positions.
      There will be NO more exponential moves in the established L1s or DeFi due to VOL-seller and money-managed funds coming into this space.
      The only assets that might have a chance to go parabolic are absolute shit-alts like Shiba where mathematically you will lose your money anyway.

      Gimme the next big thing - coins is a yesterday's theme.
      Cross-asset Derivatives De-Fi space looks attractive to you? Any tips?

  • Gravox was $7.50 today at Coles, that makes no fkn sense. The candidates can’t do shit, along with the elected members. There’s no job security, no financial security, no housing security, nothing. I don’t understand how people are still affording to take out mortgages to buy ridiculous priced homes. I was looking today for example at Weston: it’s outside of Cessnock NSW, and most of the houses are $600k. Fibro, ex mining town, no doubt contamination in the area, limited work outside of trades.

    • Scream into your MP's ear, talk to your neighbors, colleagues - ask them to do the same.

      These is all a standard hyper-inflation / stagflation playbook with hot money flowing into all tiers of economy from top to bottom

      First there will be a no-sense rise in price of assets
      Then it will go to luxury items
      Next into the everyday items and food

      BUT the sheer amount of fiscal and monetary thrown at "COVID" was absolutely staggering and this cycle is now turning at insane speed with the everyday items already feeling the heat of free money.
      What is more, we are still at zero rates ina healthy and growing economy with no pandemic in sight (according to officials, we have a manageable endmeic situation).

  • Go look at the Australia Central Bank Balance Sheet chart. What a beauty.

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