It's been fine since this morning, but BOM forecasts heavy rain for today. It's been like this on several occasions.
Does BOM Provide Accurate Weather Forecast?
Euthyphro on 21/02/2022 - 15:34
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BOM Forecast accuracy
http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/forecast-accuracy.shtmlBOM forecasts tend to be pessimistic. If they say that it's likely to rain, there's a chance it might be dry. But if they say it won't rain, it's very unlikely that it'll rain. This image tells you their rainfall range accuracy from 2021.
BOM forecasts tend to be pessimistic.
Is that your view that rain is bad?
Forecast covers a wide area so it may well be accurate when taking into account the entire area.
We tend to view accuracy from our own viewpoint (exacting location)
So for example it might say possible showers in Sydney which means entire Sydney metro area,
You might be on the coast at Bondi Beach and have a lovely sunny day.
But it may have rained in the western suburbs.or the Northern beaches.
Hence forecast is correct even though it did not rain in Bondi.
Cloudy with a chance of meatballs.
BOM is usually fairly good. I use their Weatherzone app. and their local forecast is fairly close most of the time.
"Information supplied by Weatherzone based on data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)"
BOM has their own app. My personal favorite is Willy Weather
I have all 3 and they all read the same weather, word for word.
Willy Weather tends to suggest cooler temps from time to time but the weather description is same as BOM
Weatherzone app doesn't belong to BOM. It's a commercial company.
And its an identical forecast as BOM app
Just a lot more dressed up
It would help for you to understand what the BOM means when they forecast rain. They have an explanation here; https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/209/right-as-rain-how-t…
Do you get a local forecast (as in the suburb you live in) or just use Sydney as a guide.
For example if you live in suburban Melbourne and use the Melbourne (CBD) forecast it's possible to be very different to the Greensborough or Seaford local forecasts.
this is true, in sydney if rain comes in from the west over the blue mountains it can often go over eastern creek and head out to sea in a north east direction and can miss or only get a light drizzle going over liverpool, bankstown and brighton etc even if the storm is big enough to blanket the whole of sydney.
A friend working for fisheries told me that is common. Something to do with the way blue mountains are positioned but it was a long time ago so dont quote me. I guess working for them for 15+ years and weather directly effecting your job its common knowledge for the officers.
Download Willy Weather. Best overall app for weather, you can check the rain radar, and at least be 1 hour ahead.
It's the same data as BoM - just presented differently.
I think it is extremely hard for BOM to make accurate localised predictions. I noticed that frequently when there is a rain forecast, what actually happens are scattered showers, so it is a bit of a hit and miss whether it actually rains over where I am.
Overall, I find the weather predictions helpful in making judgement calls, like whether to close my windows overnight or tackle that outdoor project or whether to go ahead with the park outing 45 minutes away, etc.
Agree.
It is not possible to provide an accurate forecast.
Sometimes I can look out my back window and see dark clouds dropping plenty of rain just a few hundred metres away. The same for the front.
But not even a tissue gets wet where I am.
So if I have outside painting to do, I always plan around the forecast.
The last thing I want to say is, "I didn't think" that it was going to rain this afternoon, when explaining the mess just created.But not even a tissue gets wet
There are ways to make that happen.
"I didn't think" that it was going to rain this afternoon, when explaining the mess just created.
Is this what we're calling it these days.
as someone who does not have mains water, it rarely rains as much as predicted
.Weather forecasting is basically making educated guesses about chaos based on various inputs using a computer model. The guesses are not always correct however it's very good over three days and pretty good over seven.
It is as accurate as everyone else predicting the weather. If you want to know what the weather is going to do in the next say 2 or 3 hours check out the nearest radar that covers about 200K in the direction the clouds are coming from.
If you look on the radar now there is heavy rain approaching Sydney
If you looked an hour ago you would have seen the same, but further away and the heavy rain area was smaller.
It is over my house now and the rain is indeed very heavy.
Luckily the brown/back area will miss me to the north. I expect light yellow clouds in about 20 minutes.
BOM is good, but the weather doesn't always cooperate.
Does BOM Provide Accurate Weather Forecast?
The answer is in your title - a forecast is a prediction. How can they know for certain what will happen?
"The governments running a weather conspiracy! They're lying to us just like they lied to us about COVID"
Weather is weather, it's unpredictable no matter how much instrumentation we have.
"it's unpredictable" If weather is unpredictable, what is BOM doing?
Doing their best to inform as best they can?
The only two guarantees in life are taxes and death.
Forecast
Since, when did forecast = has to be 100% accurate?
Unless you live in The Matrix.
1) it bucketed across the top of Sydney region this morning. Richmond thru Glenorie region around 7am.
2) have you looked over Warragamba right now? https://imgur.com/a/gouqiKRDoes BOM Provide Accurate Weather Forecast? Yes
You have to know how to read it. It might say 90% of rain on a given day, but that doesn't mean its going to poor down. It might just sprinkle for 5 seconds
If you go into the detailed information, you can get an hourly breakdown which I find much more useful.
I used to consult at BoM in Melbourne. They rolled out upgraded weather sensors all over Australia in the last 10 years for more accurate reporting. There are also a whole bunch of experienced meteorologists who analyse the data to provide the forecasts. It should be noted that we are not the primary audience for these readings. They feed into the airport control towers and into International weather systems as well.
So is the complaint the forecast has been correct? Or that much of the day it didn’t rain?
Observatory hill showed 11mm yesterday.
6.mm the day before, 4.4mm the day before, 27.4mm the day before.where are you OP? it is smashing down in 'Sydney' now… guess you spoke too soon?
https://imgur.com/a/MylUCHn
https://imgur.com/a/Hr0wX6LInner west, BOM forecasts it will rain from 11 AM, and heavy rain from 2 - 3 PM, but not even one drop of rain happened. The weather was fine at 3 PM, full of sunshine at the time.
Yes, it was full of clouds after 5 PM but no rain. The rain finally started after 6 PM.
if you were in the shire, it didn't actually rain
BOM had a segment on ABC a while ago, talking about them making predictions for Australia based on four different weather models. these models don't always agree
This season, with La Niña is apparently harder to predict accurately. Modelling has markedly improved over the years. Normally you could expect that the daily forecast is ‘pretty good’ up to 3 days ahead, improved from years ago when it was much more of a guess. Also, storms and heavy rain band are very hit and miss. Massive storms around tonight, but none exactly where I am. Go 20km in any direction and you are very likely to be wet at some point.
Weather patterns (averages) are good for a season or so ahead. Ie a wet summer, or a cold winter, it that doesn’t account for daily variations.
the most accurate weather forecast is….. step outside
is it rain on your head?
if yes it's raining
if no it's not rainingI usually check the BOM radar, that's around 90 percent accurate if u can predict movement of rain clouds
Years ago when I still watched the news on TV I used to laugh when it came to the weather and the weatherperson told us what the weather was like in Sydney earlier the day.
Maybe I just got too used to the weather reports in Europe and Asia where the next days or weeks weather were forecasted instead :P
They always predict the worst so no one can complain about getting caught out with bad weather.
the beast weather forecaster is jane Bunn 7 news meterologist she is almost right every time.The other presenters are only dolled up dolls who would't have a clue only read from bom site.
Being someone who has an interest in weather phenomena I've definitely noticed over the past 3 or 4 years that actual weather can be quite different to what was forecast when it comes to what they often call "events".
They're no good with weather forecasts and even worse with climate forecasts …
PLUS they tamper with the historical temperature data to exaggerate warming of the climate.Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology REPEATEDLY COOLS THE PAST and WARMS THE PRESENT
Clearly, the cheapest way to stop global warming would be to sack everyone at the BoM!
Being a bureaucracy and controlled by politically charged alarmists makes the BoM problematic.A series of updates to the BoM’s ACORN data have added 0.228ºC mean temperature warming if comparing 1910-19 with 2010-17 (2017 being the final year of ACORN 1)
Graham Lloyd, The Australian
“The bureau has now remodelled the national temperature dataset three times in just nine years,” Dr Jennifer Marohasy said.In the last five years the ACORN re-revisions by the BoM have discovered another quarter of a degree of warming that we didn’t know about from the last hundred years.
WHY DOES THE BOM WANT TO TELL THE WORLD HOW GOOD THEY ARE AT CORRECTING THERMOMETER RECORDS FROM 1913? IT SEEMS TO BE A REMARKABLE SKILL!The Bureau admitted to Lloyd that they changed 25 sites in the latest round, most of them because of “statistical revelations”:
The bureau said changes were made to 20 sites on the basis of “statistical analysis”. According to the bureau, statistical analysis is used to identify an abrupt warming or cooling at a particular site, relative to other sites in the region.
The BOM refuses to tell us exactly how they do this — admitting that they can’t train anyone outside their sacred guild.
Which reminds us of the old axiom, “if it can’t be replicated, it isn’t science”.The new adjustments might have also made a few local “HOTTEST EVER” headlines much easier to get.
SUDDENLY MODERN CONTENDERS FOR THE “LONGEST HEATWAVE”, ”WARMEST NIGHT”, and “HOTTEST SUMMER” ALL GOT A HEAD START.The mysterious process of homogenization
The Bureau “homogenizes” a site according to a mystical method that uses an inexplicable group of sites that are in the same region, or at least in Australia somewhere. For example, lighthouse readings off the Bass Strait have been corrected with help from Hay, 600km away, on the other side of the Great Dividing Range. A thermometer in Ballarat has been used to correct one at Bruny Island off the South coast of Tasmania. They have also corrected Alice Springs using measurements in Collarenebri nearly 1,600km away.The cross correlations of sites huge distances apart are a farce… allows them to pick and choose so the NON-WARMING RURAL STATIONS are infected with URBAN WARMING from bad stations.
It has been shown that some 45% of Australian sites are totally unfit for historical climate purposes.
To make matters worse, NASA/GISS et al take BoM’s warmed up data, and do even further warming “adjustments”
https://joannenova.com.au/2022/01/bom-cools-history-and-warm…
LETTER FROM A READER OF THE ARTICLE:
Geoff Sherrington
January 22, 2022 at 9:33 am
Some of us have done our own studies, collecting more information on sites than BoM seem to know about. Like, I have spent time with Dr Bill Johnston spending hours searching through historic paper records held at airports and BoM offices Slow, patient work, but revealing again original, unadjusted data when you get lucky.
Peter, in the majority of cases where these rediscovered facts are blended into existing data, the result is that overall, there has been less warming than the BoM claim. Not by a little bit, but by a lot. FWIW, my overall impression is that about 0.4ºC of Australian warming 1910 to 2020 is the maximum claimable by using hard science, not the 0.8-1 ºC that BoM estimate.
Now 0.4 ºC for a Century is not an existential threat. But it is the maximum we can find using hard science that can be replicated. Houston, we have a problem, Geoff S
https://joannenova.com.au/2022/01/bom-cools-history-and-warm…BOM forecast reliability depends on the weather system in play at the time. There are currently lots of monsoonal related systems moving south and these are difficult to predict just where rain will develop and fall.
When the westerly systems dominate in winter and spring things are much more predictable.
I think BOM do an amazing job,
" think BOM do an amazing job,"
ROTFLMAO
At adjusting historical temperature data.
ABSOLUTELY AMAZING!INCORRIGIBLE! Australia's Bureau of Meteorology Hides Australia's HOTTER Past By Starting Their, Already Tampered, Data Record, In 1910
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WppbuIoyXdg&feature=youtu.beBureau of Meteorology Hiding Australia's Hot Past https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WppbuIoyXdg&feature=youtu.be
Why There Needs To Be A Public Inquiry Into Australia's Bureau of Meteorology
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmg2NTzqL74&feature=youtu.beThe Bureau Is At It Again!
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology have AGAIN cooled the historical Darwin maximum temperature record
https://mailchi.mp/e752843df159/more-revisions-to-darwins-cl…You seem to have some BOM sized chip on your shoulder.
I have worked outdoors doing things for 40 years that are weather dependant and I have found them pretty good. I also understand weather systems and understand the factors that lead to variability.
So I think they do an EXCELLENT job.
Your opinion clearly differs. The obvious thing to do is write it straight into your memoirs…………
" I think they do an EXCELLENT job."
ROTFLMAO
If climate data fiddling and wild predictions like "permanent drought" rate, then they do an excellent job at that.FROM OUR DUD PREDICTIONS FILE …
FLASHBACK 2008: BoM: This drought may never break.
IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation's most senior weather experts warned yesterday."Perhaps we should call it our new climate," said the Bureau of Meteorology's head of climate analysis, David Jones.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/this-drought-may-never-br…"You seem to have some BOM sized chip on your shoulder."
Just observing their behaviour in zealously pushing the global warming/climate change agenda is enough.
No need for a chip.@Gekov: Ha Ha! So your a climate change denier. I get it now.
Definitely keep those memoirs going mate.
Whatever little turnpikes you have taken to get in you current dilemma you are wrong. You can backtrack a bit, drop the ego and defer to decent science if you like. Your choice.Just remember in hitting at BOM you are just trying to kill the sitreps. Go for gold and tear down the well established, peer reviewed science instead. Write some papers of your own and get them peer reviewed and published. That’s how it works.
That’s how we got a heap of different vaccines for a pandemic within 2 years.
That’s how we got the device of choice you are using to vent your anger.
That’s how we got a heap of renewable energy in the pipeline that is cheaper and healthier than fossil fuels.It is wonderful to live in a free country - enjoy.
This BOM prediction is a doozy!.
FROM OUR DUD PREDICTIONS FILE …
FLASHBACK 2008: BoM: This drought may never break.
IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation's most senior weather experts warned yesterday."Perhaps we should call it our new climate," said the Bureau of Meteorology's head of climate analysis, David Jones.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/this-drought-may-never-br…Anyone Who Says global warming Causes Or Increases Droughts In Australia Is A Charlatan
There have been ten major droughts (now eleven) in Australia over the last 150 years.
(Source: M.J. Couplant, 1986: “Drought in Australia. Natural Disasters in Australia.” Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering).
Some of the droughts lasted a decade, some are in clusters and all had a severe effect on rural Australia.
Drought has been, along with flooding rains, and will continue to be a major feature of Australia.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics and Bureau of Meteorology document the major Australian droughts-
Major Droughts:
1884-1886, 1868, 1880-1886, 1888, 1895 – 1903, 1911-1916,1918-1920,1939-1945,1958-1968,1982-1983, 1999-2009,2012-2015 and now 2019-2020.
Less severe droughts:
1922-1923,1926-1929,1933-1938,1946-1949,1951-52,1970-1973,and 1976.
Droughts occurred where most Australians live i.e., in SE Australia as follows:
1988,1902,1914-1915,1940-1941,1944-1945,1967,-1968,1972-1973,1982-1983,1991-1995,2002-2003,2006-2007,2013-2015,and now 2019-2020.
Professor Ian Plimer provided this summary.
Frankly, anyone who says global warming causes or increases droughts in Australia is a charlatan.BoM refuses to explain temperature data fiddling
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/abc-invites-bom-and-marohas…Someone should be sacked for blatant corruption of a perfectly good temperature record!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/26/australian-scientist-c…BoM DATA FIDDLING: Cooling trend changed to warming because stations “might have moved”!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/26/boms-bomb-on-station-t…BoM DATA FIDDLING: says Rutherglen site shifted, former workers say “No”!
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/bom-claims-rutherglen-data-…THE HEAT IS ON! Bureau Of Meteorology “altering climate figures”
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/the-heat-is-on-bureau-of-me…ah yes, the ultra-reputable joannenova.com.au
"ah yes, the ultra-reputable joannenova.com.au"
Ah yes, only those pushing a globalist agenda and "the science" are the reputable ones eh?
FYI: Joanne does not have a barrow to push aside from analyzing objective data.
And she doesn't like seeing the data being moulded to fit a globalist warming/climate change agenda.you might want to look into a process called "peer review" at some point…
@harro112: Did someone mention "peer review"?
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/jo…Uncovering new peer review problems – this time at The BMJ
https://www.healthnewsreview.org/2018/04/uncovering-new-peer…The Lancet claims 50% of peer reviewed studies are non-reproducible and Bayer claims 75% are non-reproducible.
https://judithcurry.com/2011/10/19/laframboise-on-the-ipcc/
http://bit.ly/2BfsZc9And medical research is probably way better than climate science in that respect.
IPCC. 30% OF SOURCE MATERIAL NOT PEER REVIEWED
http://bit.ly/2BfsZc9
https://judithcurry.com/2011/10/19/laframboise-on-the-ipcc/Peer Review in climate ”science” serves the important purpose of keeping actual science from interfering with the funding stream
Any other sources of this info?
"Any other sources of this info?"
Glad you asked …LEFTY CLIMATE ACTIVISTS WANT TO CENSOR INCONVENIENT, BUT TRUE, GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA
… THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW THAT THERE AIN’T MUCH GLOBAL WARMING!
DR ROY SPENCER: “GOOGLE PUNISHED ME FOR REPORTING THE REAL GLOBAL TEMPERATURE”
AS OPPOSED TO THE HIGHLY TAMPERED, WARMED UP, DATA FROM ALTERNATIVE DATABASES.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for January, 2022 was +0.03ºC
His UNTAMPERED satellite data shows virtually NO GLOBAL WARMING SINCE 1979!
Dr Roy Spencer runs the world's most authoritative measurement of the world's temperature, using NASA satellites.
Google has now demonetised his website, where he reports the results.
It accuses him of spreading "harmful" news - which is that the planet is not warming anything like as fast as predicted.
Here he speaks on The Bolt Report.Social media giants are increasingly censoring debate
- and now Google is punishing one of the world's top climate experts.Professor Roy Spencer runs one of the five big measurements of world temperature, some say the most authoritative, at the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
His work has been widely cited in the scientific literature and has won him the American Meteorological Society's Special Award.
Here's the problem …
Spencer’s latest measurements for January again confirm the planet isn't warming anything as fast as predicted by climate models.
It shows virtually no warming over the 30-year average – just 0.03ºC above that average.That kind of data has outraged some activists.
They’ve complained to Google, which has now told Spencer it will demonetise his website because he has allegedly been making “unreliable and harmful claims”.This means Spencer cannot earn money from ads placed on his website by Google’s AdSense program.
Without an accurate satellite record to limit climate activist data tampering, “adjusted” surface temperatures would fit alarmist predictions & we’d all now be carbon traders under a UN world government.VIDEO OF THE INTERVIEW …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZy8mgD05QAhttps://www.drroyspencer.com/
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/roy-spencer-o…Andrew Bolt lol
Good to see you're not limiting your ALL CAPS CHATS to just one thread :-)
Michael Jordan had a roughly 90% free throw accuracy.
You predict that there's a 90% chance he will make his next shot.
Jordan shoots and misses.
Was your prediction wrong?"Was your prediction wrong?"
How does that apply to the WARMIST, ALARMIST BoM predicting a permanent drought in Australia based on "the science"?
Are you implying they were right?
FYI: NOT ONE ALARMIST CLIMATE PREDICTION HAS EVER COME TO PASS!
But they're still at it. Gluttons for punishment!
Another alarmist gem …
“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007
“This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake.”
– Dr Tim Flannery,
Climate Council
Thanks for the update.