Hi all,
Curious how people think this potential, but looking likely, conflict will effect the market and if people are positioning defensively or aggressively.
Personally I believe a further crash in Crypto/Stocks, compounded by future interest rate rises. This might be the straw that breaks the camels back and brings forward future declines.
Your thoughts for the next 3-6 months?
Investing in BTC?
Which "Market" are you referring to?
Stocks and Crypto in particular.
How Will This Effect Your Investments?
Novice question.
Need to specify over what time frame? … the next day, week, month, year?
You’re absolutely right. Over the next 3-6 months. Updated the description.
I closed my accounts with Russian banks last week
In Soviet Russia, account closes you.
It raises a Red Flag for me.
IMO "positioning" yourself is a fool's errand, it's impossible to keep up with the big guys. If you have to ask OzBargain you probably should sit on what you have and don't try play the markets to make a short term profit, it comes with bigger risk.
I'm going to hold onto what I've got as part of a long term strategy and take advantage of any market irrationality that sees huge dips as the big boys play their games (i.e. if the entire market sees a 10% drop over a week, time to start buying and keep buying as it falls). If it doesn't fall then my strategy remains exactly the same. If it goes up, then yay, I'm worth more.
Hopefully the market won't decide to make your username check out
which stocks are likely to go down and then recover once the war ends?
I don;t want to buy stocks in guns/ammo/military stocks.
There'll be no conflict - can you add it to your poll please?
I don't think this is going to happen, all overblown by media in the same way as Russiagate during Trump presidency - now all suddenly gone.
It’s the US/NATO that are overblowing the situation, media are just reporting the BS they spout.
KGB does not give a long speech before pulling the trigger, that's Hollywood.
If Putin wants Ukraine, he would have taken it already.
What he doesn’t want is for Ukraine to try and retake Crimea.
Because if they do, and they are a part of NATO. Ukraine will force NATO Nations into war with Russia, which Putin does not want.
there was a vid where a Ukrainian living near the boarder recorded about 30 choppers
here found it. Im wrong its about 20
https://www.reddit.com/r/oddlyterrifying/comments/srkmin/lar…
Then Putin recorded an hour long speech and a full-scale invasion happened.
House prices will crash by -23%. Wages will skyrocket by 0.5%.
You’re assuming conflict is going to occur.
It has occured.
Didnt we do this yesterday or day before?
How likely? They already have since Friday.
long term almost no effect in the short term you might see a bit of volatility on the markets
NGL and Oil prices will continue to climb
Personally, I think the possibility for conflict of any significant scale is low.
There may be some border skirmishes, a few rockets lobbed over the border, etc., but I'm not seeing a Russian "invasion".
What does that mean for markets? The broader equity market will likely be "choppy", resources prices (especially oil) will likely increase, and if I'm right that there is no significant conflict, all markets will effectively move on to whatever the next issue is (spoiler alert … potential inflation, removal of QE, and increasing interest rates … offset (to some extent or other) by expectations of restored international trade and improving macroeconomics).
How do you feel now that the bombs are going off in th capital of Ukraine?
Can we predict the market after COVID? Nothing is going to happen as russia supports conflict and invaded Ukraine back in 2014. I’m Ukrainian. And yes, putin Huilo!
So where is everyone Putin your investments? Vodka stocks I say.
I'm heavy on oil and gas, so shouldn't be a problem.
Also have a lot of bonds.
This way I don't complain about fuel prices and interest rate rises.
Bonds are such a garbage investment for people that want to lose 💵.
I believe the Fed's aggressive rate rises are already priced in and the current russia/ulraine conflict will have been resolved by the week's end. It's becoming more and more likely that russia was just intimidating without any intention of actually invading ukraine and that the media and the west were exaggerating the situation.
Who do you mean by your reference to "…the Fed's…"?
Absolutely right that it has already been priced in.
The Australian Reserve Bank maybe not yet?
also saw this on twitter "
The former head of MI6 has given a startling interview on BBC Radio 4, in which he outlines the view that Russia never had any intention of invading Ukraine, and that the threat has been greatly exaggerated by Western leaders."
the threat has been greatly exaggerated by Western leaders."
They would never do that.
The destruction of 🇦🇫 and 🇮🇶 was true and justice for WMD.
Who needs investments when the world is blown up
Only smart way to get rich!
In the short term volatility.
In the long term it won't make one iota of difference.
Watch the US tickers below, starting midnight AEST
Market opening at bids:
LMT $382
RTX $94
NOC $386
All three are up.
Noobs buy ATH and get rekt.
Wait for a retrace.
Your thoughts for the next 3-6 months?
Mmmmm … who was the trillionaire advising: "If you see blood running down the streets … go and buy real estate property" ?
For sure any investment related to tourism in Ukraine will go belly up.
Good move by the west alliance: don't risky it … visit the West instead !!
When a currency collapses, the stocks, bonds, & real estate linked to that currency also collapse. If your assets are not portable, your wealth may not be durable. #Bitcoin https://t.co/rmGYJOg8fR
🇻🇪, 🇿🇼, 🇦🇷, 🇹🇷 and now 🇷🇺 are all getting sucked in the fiat ☠️ 🌀.
Guess what Putin has been doing all these years?